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DAILY I FOREX REPORT 18TH JULY 2013

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HEADLINES  Momentum Scorecard: Euro Looks To Outperform Versus CAD, USD  USD/CAD- Trading The Bank Of Canada (BoC) Rate Decision

All Eyes on Bank of England Minutes, Bernanke Testimony

TRADING TIPS  SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3120 TGT 1.3100/1.3080 SL 1.3150

 BUY USDJPY BELOW 99.80 TGT 100.00/100.20 SL 99.50

 BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.5250 TGT 1.5280/1.5300 SL 1.5230

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The US Dollar recovered against its major counterparts in overnight, adding as much as 0.3 percent on average, as markets digested the largest decline in four days recorded over the prior 24 hours. All eyes are now on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke two days of semi-annual testimony to the US Congress. Traders are looking to the central bank chief’s comments to inform expectations for the timing and size of a reduction of the Fed’s QE effort. Bernanke has been busy highlighting the difference between “tightening” monetary policy and “tapering” asset purchases recently after markets ran with pricing in a hawkish shift in the posture of the rate-setting FOMC committee following the June meeting. That move produced a sharp jump in US bond yields and sent risky assets tumbling. The greenback is likely to come under renewed pressure if the rhetoric emerging out of today’s testimony continues to stress a need for accommodation and the data dependence of the decision to taper QE purchases. The release of minutes from July’s Bank of England policy meeting, the first one with Governor Mark Carney at the helm, is in focus on the European economic calendar. Investors will be keen to see how the new leader of the central bank voted on the matter of expanding QE and what logic went into the decision to issue an accompanying statement (a move unusual for the BOE at times when it doesn’t change the policy mix). All else being equal, the British Pound is likely to rise if Carney voted against more QE, and vice versa. Hints of change in the central bank’s strategy in delivering policy support – such as the introduction of Fed-style forward guidance on how long rates are likely to remain low – will probably weigh on Sterling however. Separately, economists’ forecasts call for an 8,000 decline in UK Jobless Claims in June, putting total outstanding applications for benefits at the lowest since March 2009.

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0030 (BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 57 (BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.10(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>60(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0002(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>70(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>28(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0138(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>36(BULLISH SIGNAL)


ECONOMIC CALLENDER Date

Time

Sun Jul 14

Mon Jul 15

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

0.7%

0.3%

CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

22:30

NZD Performance Services Index (JUN)

Medium

55.0

56.0

23:01

GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.3%

1.2%

23:01

GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

4.8%

2.7%

01:30

AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (JUN)

Low

4.0%

0.0%

01:30

AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JUN)

Low

7.1%

0.2%

02:00

CNY Business Climate Index (2Q)

Low

120.6

125.6

02:00

CNY Real GDP YTD (YoY) (2Q)

High

7.6%

02:00

CNY Entrepreneur Confidence Index (2Q)

Low

117.0

02:00

CNY GDP (YoY) (2Q)

High

7.5%

7.5%

7.7%

02:00

CNY Real GDP (QoQ) (2Q)

High

1.7%

1.8%

1.6%

02:00

CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

9.3%

9.3%

9.4%

02:00

CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

8.9%

9.1%

9.2%

02:00

CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

20.1%

20.2%

20.4%

02:00

CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

12.7%

12.7%

12.6%

02:00

CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

13.3%

12.9%

12.9%

07:15

CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.1%

0.1%

-0.3%

07:15

CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JUN)

Low

0.2%

0.2%

-0.2%

12:00

USD Fed's Tarullo Speaks on Banking Regulation in Washington

Low

7.7%

7.7%

122.4

Notes


Tue Jul 16

12:30

USD Empire Manufacturing (JUL)

Low

5

7.84

12:30

USD Advance Retail Sales (JUN)

High

0.7%

0.6%

12:30

USD Retail Sales Less Autos (JUN)

Medium

0.4%

0.3%

12:30

USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (JUN)

Low

0.3%

0.3%

12:30

USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (JUN)

Low

0.4%

0.3%

13:00

CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

14:00

USD Business Inventories (MAY)

Medium

21:00

USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

Low

22:45

NZD Consumer Prices Index (QoQ) (2Q)

22:45

3.6%

0.2%

0.3%

Medium

0.3%

0.4%

NZD Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (2Q)

Medium

0.8%

0.9%

01:30

AUD RBA Policy Meeting - July Minutes

High

04:00

JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (JUN)

Low

49.20%

06:00

EUR EU 25 New Car Registrations (JUN)

Low

-5.9%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

-0.2%

-0.3%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN)

Low

4.2%

2.2%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.1%

0.0%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

1.9%

1.2%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.1%

0.1%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

1.1%

0.8%

08:30

GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (MAY)

Low

2.8%

2.6%

08:30

GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

-0.1%

0.2%

08:30

GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

High

3.0%

2.7%

08:30

GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

High

2.3%

2.2%

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (JUN)

Low

250

250


08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.0%

0.2%

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

Low

3.4%

3.1%

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (JUN)

Low

3.4%

3.1%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

0.1%

0.1%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN F)

High

1.6%

1.6%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JUN F)

High

1.2%

1.2%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (MAY)

Low

16.2B

16.1B

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (MAY)

Low

12.0B

14.9B

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (JUL)

Medium

09:00

EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (JUL)

Medium

9

8.6

09:00

EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (JUL)

High

40

38.5

12:30

CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (MAY)

Low

1.0%

-2.4%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

0.3%

0.1%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

0.2%

0.2%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

High

1.6%

1.4%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JUN)

High

1.6%

1.7%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (JUN)

Low

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (JUN)

Low

13:00

USD Total Net TIC Flows (MAY)

Low

$12.7B

13:00

USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (MAY)

Medium

-$37.3B

13:15

USD Industrial Production (JUN)

Medium

0.003

0

13:15

USD Capacity Utilization (JUN)

Low

0.777

0.776

13:15

USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (JUN)

Medium

0.20%

0.10%

14:00

USD NAHB Housing Market Index (JUL)

Medium

51.0

52.0

30.6

233.267

233.25

232.95


Wed Jul 17

18:15

USD Fed's George Speaks on Economic Conditions and Agriculture

Low

23:50

JPY Bank of Japan June 10-11 meeting minutes

High

00:30

AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (MAY)

Medium

02:00

CNY Conference Board China June Leading Economic Index

Low

06:00

JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUN F)

Medium

08:30

GBP Bank of England Minutes

High

08:30

GBP Claimant Count Rate (JUN)

Medium

4.5%

4.5%

08:30

GBP Jobless Claims Change (JUN)

Medium

-8.0K

-8.6K

08:30

GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/(YoY)) (MAY)

Low

1.4%

1.3%

08:30

GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/(YoY)) (MAY)

Low

1.1%

0.9%

08:30

GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (MAY)

Medium

7.80%

7.80%

08:30

GBP Employment Change (3M/3M) (MAY)

Medium

82K

24K

09:00

CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (JUL)

Medium

2.2

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (MAY)

Low

2.0%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY)

Low

-6.6%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 12)

Low

-4.00%

12:30

CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (MAY)

Low

14.91B

12:30

USD Housing Starts (JUN)

Low

950K

914K

12:30

USD Housing Starts (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

3.9%

6.8%

12:30

USD Building Permits (JUN)

Low

1000K

974K

12:30

USD Building Permits (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

1.5%

-3.1%

14:00

CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (JUL 17)

High

1.00%

1.00%

14:00

USD Fed's Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Policy Report to House

High

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 12)

Low

0.6%

-12.4%

-9874K


Thu Jul 18

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 12)

Low

-2634K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 12)

Low

3038K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (JUL 12)

Low

0.002

16:30

USD Fed's Raskin Speaks at Exchequer Club in Washington

Low

18:00

USD U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

High

22:00

NZD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JUN)

Low

-1.7%

00:00

AUD Conference Board Leading Index (MAY)

Low

0.3%

01:00

NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (JUL)

Low

123.9

01:00

NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.20%

01:30

AUD NAB Business Confidence (2Q)

Medium

2

01:30

CNY China June Property Prices

Low

01:30

AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (JUN)

Low

490M

01:30

AUD RBA FX Transactions Other (JUN)

Low

33M

03:30

AUD RBA FX Transactions Govt. (JUN)

Low

05:30

JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (JUN)

Low

2.6%

05:30

JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (JUN)

Low

5.1%

06:00

CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (JUN)

Medium

2.22B

06:00

CHF Exports (MoM) (JUN)

Low

1.7%

06:00

CHF Imports (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.9%

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (MAY)

Low

19.5B

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (MAY)

Low

15.3B

08:30

GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.2%

2.1%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

1.6%

2.1%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.4%

2.1%


08:30

GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (JUN)

12:30

CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAY)

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 12)

12:30

Medium

1.8%

1.9%

Low

0.2%

Medium

360K

USD Continuing Claims (JUL 6)

Low

2977K

14:00

USD API Monthly Statistical Report

Low

14:00

USD Fed's Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Policy Report to Senate

High

14:00

USD Philadelphia Fed. (JUL)

Medium

6.8

12.5

14:00

USD Leading Indicators (JUN)

Medium

0.003

0.001

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUL 12)

Low

82.0

22:45

NZD Net Migration s.a. (JUN)

Low

1740

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUL 12)

Medium

짜973.1B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUL 12)

Medium

-짜14.1B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JUL 12)

Low

짜3.5B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JUL 12)

Low

짜486.9B

EUR G20 Finance Ministers' and Central Bank's Deputies Meeting in Russia

High

EUR G20 Labour Ministers Meeting in Russia

High

EUR G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Russia

High

03:00

NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

-0.6%

03:00

NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

2.4%

04:30

JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (MAY)

Medium

05:00

JPY Leading Index (MAY F)

Medium

110.5

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (MAY F)

Low

105.9

06:00

EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (JUN)

Low

-0.1%

-0.3%

06:00

EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (JUN)

Low

0.6%

0.2%

Fri Jul 19

1.2%

0.4%


08:30

GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (JUN)

Medium

08:30

GBP PSNB ex Interventions (JUN)

Medium

9.0B

8.8B

08:30

GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (JUN)

Medium

9.3B

10.5B

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

0.1%

0.2%

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

High

1.3%

0.7%

12:30

CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

-0.3%

0.2%

12:30

CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JUN)

High

1.3%

1.1%

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.1%

12:30

CAD Core CPI s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

0.0%

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (JUN)

Low

123.0

3.1B


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Daily i forex report 1 by epic reseach 18 july 2013