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DAILY I FOREX REPORT 23TH JULY 2013

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HEADLINES  Momentum Scorecard: Euro And Sterling To Outperform Versus AUD  Yen Gains After Japanese Election, US Home Sales Data Ahead  Yen Gains, Nikkei Falls in the Aftermath of Japan’s Upper-House Election Dollar Eyes US Existing Home Sales Data to Shape Fed Policy Expectations

TRADING TIPS  BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3190 TGT 1.3210/1.3230 SL 1.3160

 SELL USDJPY BELOW 99.70 TGT 99.50/99.30 SL 100.00

 BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

The Japanese Yen outperformed against its leading counterparts to start the trading week, adding as much as 0.9 percent on average and mirroring a pullback in the benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index. The newswires are chalking up the move to disappointment in the outcome of Japan’s upper-house election held over the weekend.

While the ruling coalition put in a strong showing and expanded its mandate as widely expected, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s LDP party failed to secure outright majority. That means Abe now faces intra-coalition negotiations with the New Komeito party to push through his agenda, which may make for a tougher slog on some of the reforms eyed by the administration.

Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar in European hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to the US data docket, where June’s Existing Home Sales report is in focus. Expectations call for an increase to 5.25 million, marking the highest reading since November 2009.

1.5350 TGT 1.5370/1.5390 SL 1.5320

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A strong print may reinforce expectations of a cut-back in Fed QE asset purchases, boosting the US Dollar. News-flow out the world’s largest economy has proven somewhat lackluster relative to economists’ forecasts over recent weeks however, leaving the door open for a downside surprise that weighs against the greenback.

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0030 (BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 65 (BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>43(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0002(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>69(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>36(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARIISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0138(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>33(BEARISH SIGNAL)


ECONOMIC CALLENDER Date

Time

Event

Importance

JPY BOJ Policy Board Member Sato Speaks in Fukushima

Low

05:00

JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (JUN)

Low

2.7%

-1.2%

07:00

CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUN)

Low

11.6%

9.7%

07:00

JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JUN)

Low

0.1%

-1.2%

12:30

USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (JUN)

14:00

Mon Jul 22

Currency

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Medium

0.00

-0.30

USD Existing Home Sales (JUN)

Low

5.25M

5.18M

14:00

USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

1.4%

4.2%

21:00

USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

Low

CHF Real Estate Index Family Homes (2Q)

Low

JPY Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report for July

High

Tue Jul 23

425.2

08:30

GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (JUN)

Medium

38300

36102

12:30

CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY)

Medium

0.4%

0.1%

12:30

CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (MAY)

Low

0.4%

-0.3%

13:00

USD House Price Index (MoM) (MAY)

Medium

0.8%

0.7%

14:00

USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (JUL)

Low

10

8

14:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUL A)

Medium

-18.3

-18.8

22:45

NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (JUN)

Medium

105M

71M

22:45

NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (JUN)

Low

4.01B

4.08B

22:45

NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (JUN)

Low

3.90B

4.01B

22:45

NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (JUN)

Medium

-1050M

-869M

Notes


Wed Jul 24

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (JUN)

Medium

-짜150.0B

-짜996.4B

23:50

JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (JUN)

Low

-짜573.5B

-짜821.0B

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (JUN)

Low

10.0

10.1

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (JUN)

Low

13.6

10.1

01:00

AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (JUN)

Low

-0.5%

AUD Consumer Prices Index (QoQ) (2Q)

Medium

0.5%

0.4%

AUD Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (2Q)

High

2.5%

2.5%

01:30

AUD Consumer Prices Index RBA Trimmed Mean (QoQ) (2Q)

Low

0.5%

0.3%

01:30

AUD Consumer Prices Index RBA Trimmed Mean (YoY) (2Q)

Low

2.1%

2.2%

01:30

AUD Consumer Prices Index RBA Weighted Median (QoQ) (2Q)

Low

0.5%

0.5%

01:30

AUD Consumer Prices Index RBA Weighted Median (YoY) (2Q)

Low

2.4%

2.6%

01:45

CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (JUL)

Medium

48.5

48.2

07:00

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL P)

Low

48.8

48.4

07:00

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL P)

Low

47.5

47.2

07:30

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL A)

Medium

49.2

48.6

07:30

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL A)

Medium

50.7

50.4

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL A)

Medium

49.1

48.8

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL A)

Medium

48.7

48.3

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (JUL A)

Medium

49.1

48.7

10:00

GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (JUL)

Low

-12

-18

10:00

GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (JUL)

Low

4

3

10:00

GBP CBI Business Optimism (JUL)

Low

8

5

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 19)

Low

01:30 LIVE

01:30 LIVE

LIVE

08:00 LIVE

08:00 LIVE

-2.60%


12:58

USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (JUL)

14:00

Medium

52.5

USD New Home Sales (JUN)

Low

485K

476K

14:00

USD New Home Sales (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

1.8%

2.1%

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 19)

Low

-6902K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 19)

Low

-882K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 19)

Low

3055K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (JUL 19)

Low

3870K

NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (JUL 25)

High

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUL 19)

Medium

짜1105.7B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUL 19)

Medium

-짜88.2B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JUL 19)

Low

짜0.8B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JUL 19)

Low

짜398.2B

23:50

JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) (JUN)

Low

0.6%

0.3%

EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Low

-0.3%

-0.4%

EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

Low

-1.6%

-2.9%

21:00 LIVE

Thu Jul 25

2.50%

2.50%

08:00

EUR German IFO Business Climate (JUL)

Medium

106.1

105.9

08:00

EUR German IFO Current Assessment (JUL)

Medium

109.7

109.4

08:00

EUR German IFO Expectations (JUL)

Medium

102.5

102.5

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JUN)

Low

3.0%

2.9%

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (JUN)

Low

3.0%

2.9%

08:30

GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q A)

High

0.6%

0.3%

08:30

GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q A)

High

1.4%

0.3%

08:30

GBP Index of Services (MoM) (MAY)

Low

0.2%

0.2%

08:30

GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (MAY)

Low

0.7%

0.8%


12:30

CAD Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (MAY)

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 19)

12:30

Medium

340K

334K

USD Continuing Claims (JUL 13)

Low

2980K

3114K

USD Durable Goods Orders (JUN)

High

1.1%

3.6%

12:30

USD Durables Ex Transportation (JUN)

Medium

0.5%

0.7%

12:30

USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (JUN)

Low

0.7%

1.1%

12:30

USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (JUN)

Low

1.1%

1.7%

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUL 19)

Low

15:00

USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (JUL)

Low

0

-5

23:30

JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

High

0.1%

-0.3%

23:30

JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

0.3%

0.0%

23:30

JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

-0.3%

-0.4%

23:30

JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

Low

0.2%

0.0%

23:30

JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL)

Low

0.3%

0.2%

23:30

JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL)

Low

-0.4%

-0.4%

01:45

CNY MNI July Business Sentiment Indicator

Low

13:55

USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JUL F)

84.0

83.9

01:30

CNY Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (JUN)

12:30 LIVE

Fri Jul 26

Sat Jul 27

2.2%

Low

Medium

Low

58

12.3%


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Daily i forex report 1 by epic research 23 july 2013