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DAILY IFOREX REPORT 28th AUG 2013


HEADLINES  Will Another Drop In Consumer Confidence Threaten USD Support?  Forex: Yen Bought On Syria-Linked Jitters, Euro May Rise On IFO Data

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

TRADING TIPS  SELL EURUSD BELOW

After a strong midweek performance, the US Dollar slumped on Friday and its woes have continued into the last week of August. Sparked by a slew of weak housing figures on Friday, the buck’s downturn has begun at a curious time for markets, given the fact that last week produced not only the July FOMC Minutes but also the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.

1.3320 TGT 1.3300/1.3280 SL 1.3350

Indeed, there is one main takeaway from the fireworks (or lack thereof) last week: between now and September 19, the next FOMC meeting, only US economic data will drive market sentiment. Dovish or hawkish, the commentary was more or less the same from Fed officials this past week: ‘September would be an appropriate time to taper if the economic data is strong.’

 SELL USDJPY BELOW 97.60 TGT 97.30/97.00 SL 97.90

 SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5500 TGT 1.5480/1.5450 SL 1.5530

The first such opportunity to see if US data is moving in the right direction is today in the form of the Durable Goods Orders report for July. Durable goods are products with lifespans of three years or longer (appliances, automobiles, etc), and therefore the report is viewed as a proxy to consumer confidence and credit.

In light of the recent upswing in financing costs, purchases that would be aided by lower rates have taken a hit in recent months (as seen on Friday, housing). We find that the July report should show no difference from the general trend. The weakness seen in the US Dollar to start the week reflects positioning for a weaker report; and a beat here would go a long way to ease sentiment and put favor back in the buck’s court.


 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0003(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 36(BEARISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARDRD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>32(BEARISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>32(BEARISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>55(BULLISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>57(BULLISH SIGNAL)


ECONOMIC CALLENDER Date

Time

Sun Aug 25

22:45

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (JUL)

Medium

-1688M

-956M

-816M

22:45

NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (JUL)

Medium

-774M

-16M

374M

22:45

NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (JUL)

Low

3.85B

3.90B

4.01B

22:45

NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (JUL)

Low

4.62B

3.90B

3.63B

23:50

JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) (JUL)

Low

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

JPY Japan Economic Panel Meets on Sales Tax Increase (26-31)

Medium

08:00

ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks on Euro Economy

Medium

12:30

USD Durable Goods Orders (JUL)

High

-4.0%

3.9%

12:30

USD Durables Ex Transportation (JUL)

Medium

0.5%

-0.1%

12:30

USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (JUL)

Low

0.5%

0.9%

12:30

USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (JUL)

Low

0.3%

-0.9%

14:30

USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (AUG)

Low

3.9

4.4

21:00

USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

Low

01:30

CNY Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (JUL)

Low

11.1%

05:00

JPY Small Business Confidence (AUG)

Medium

49.4

08:00

EUR German IFO Business Climate (AUG)

Medium

107

106.2

08:00

EUR German IFO Current Assessment (AUG)

Medium

111

110.1

08:00

EUR German IFO Expectations (AUG)

Medium

103.1

102.4

10:50

USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Sweden

Low

11:00

EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks In Gothenburg, Sweden

Low

13:00

USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

1.0%

1.1%

13:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JUN)

Low

12.1%

12.2%

Mon Aug 26

Tue Aug 27

Currency

Event

Notes


13:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (JUN)

Low

13:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (2Q)

Low

136.7

13:00

USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (YoY) (2Q)

Low

10.2%

USD Consumer Confidence (AUG)

High

79.0

80.3

USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (AUG)

Low

0

-11

CNY Leading Index (JUL)

Medium

99.55

AUD CBAHIA House Affordability (2Q)

Low

69.7

GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (AUG)

Low

JPY BoJ Deputy Governor Iwata Speak at Kyoto Chamber of Commerce

Low

01:30

AUD Construction Work Done (2Q)

Low

06:00

CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (JUL)

Medium

06:00

EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (SEP)

Medium

7.1

7.0

06:00

EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.3%

-0.8%

06:00

EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

Low

-2.5%

-2.2%

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (JUL)

Low

2.4%

2.8%

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JUL)

Low

2.0%

2.3%

10:00

GBP CBI Reported Sales (AUG)

Low

20

17

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 23)

Low

-4.6%

12:30

CAD Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (JUN)

Low

2.5%

12:45

GBP Bank of England Governor Carney to Speak on U.K. Economy

Medium

14:00

USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

14:00

USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (JUL)

Low

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (AUG 23)

Low

-1090K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 23)

Low

-1428K

14:00 LIVE

14:00

Wed Aug 28

00:00

159.40

156.14

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

-2.0%

1.44

9.1%

0.0%

-0.4%


Thu Aug 29

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (AUG 23)

Low

871K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (AUG 23)

Low

-4029K

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (AUG 23)

Medium

-짜903.8B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (AUG 23)

Medium

-짜3.0B

23:50

JPY Large Retailers' Sales (JUL)

Medium

-0.5%

3.5%

23:50

JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

-0.3%

1.6%

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (AUG 23)

Low

짜38.7B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (AUG 23)

Low

짜47.9B

23:50

JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUL)

Low

1.7%

23:50

JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

Low

01:00

AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JUL)

Medium

3.4%

01:00

NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (AUG)

Medium

52.8

01:00

NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (AUG)

Low

43.7

01:30

AUD Private Capital Expenditure (2Q)

Low

01:30

JPY BOJ Board Member Morimoto Speech

Low

07:55

EUR German Unemployment Change (AUG)

07:55

-1.0%

-0.2%

0.0%

-4.7%

High

-5K

-7K

EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (AUG)

High

6.8%

6.8%

08:30

GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (AUG)

Low

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (AUG P)

High

1.7%

1.9%

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG P)

High

1.7%

1.9%

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (AUG P)

Medium

0.1%

0.4%

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG P)

Medium

0.1%

0.5%

12:30

USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q S)

Medium

0.8%

0.8%

41


12:30

USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q S)

Medium

2.2%

1.7%

12:30

USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q S)

Medium

0.7%

0.7%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 23)

Medium

12:30

USD Personal Consumption (2Q S)

Medium

1.8%

1.8%

12:30

CAD Current Account (BoP) (Canadian dollar) (2Q)

Low

-$14.8B

-$14.1B

12:30

CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.3%

0.3%

12:30

CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.7%

0.3%

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (AUG 17)

Low

2990K

2990K

12:50

USD Fed's Bullard to Speak to Leadership Memphis

Low

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (AUG 23)

Low

18:00

USD Fed's Lacker Speaks in Virginia

Low

22:45

NZD Building Permits (MoM) (JUL)

Medium

1.3%

-4.0%

23:05

GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (AUG)

Medium

-14

-16

23:15

JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (AUG)

Medium

23:30

JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

330K

57

50.7

High

0.7%

0.2%

JPY Household Spending (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

0.2%

-0.4%

JPY Jobless Rate (JUL)

Medium

3.9%

3.9%

23:30

JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

0.6%

0.4%

23:30

JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

-0.2%

-0.2%

23:30

JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUL)

Low

0.93

0.92

23:30

JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (AUG)

Low

0.4%

0.3%

23:30

JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG)

Low

-0.3%

-0.4%

23:30

JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

Low

0.5%

0.4%

23:45

USD Fed's James Bullard to Speak on U.S. Economy

LIVE

23:30

23:30 LIVE

Medium


Fri Aug 30

23:50

JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL P)

Medium

1.8%

-4.6%

23:50

JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL P)

Low

3.7%

-3.1%

01:30

AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

3.1%

3.1%

01:30

AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.4%

0.4%

01:45

CNY MNI August Business Sentiment Indicator

Low

03:00

NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUL)

Low

6.2%

04:00

JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUL)

Low

-9.5%

05:00

JPY Annualized Housing Starts (JUL)

Medium

0.996M

0.976M

05:00

JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

14.3%

15.3%

05:00

JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (JUL)

Low

06:00

GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)

Medium

3.3%

3.9%

06:00

EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

1.7%

-2.8%

06:00

EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.6%

-1.5%

07:00

CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (AUG)

Medium

1.33

1.23

08:00

EUR Italian Unemployment Rate (JUL P)

Low

12.2%

12.1%

08:00

EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (2Q)

Low

12.1%

11.9%

08:30

GBP Mortgage Approvals (JUL)

Medium

59.0K

57.7K

08:30

GBP Net Consumer Credit (JUL)

Medium

0.7B

0.5B

08:30

GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JUL)

Low

3.9%

4.7%

08:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.1%

08:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JUL)

Low

1.5%

08:30

GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JUL)

Low

1.2B

1.0B

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (AUG A)

High

1.1%

1.1%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (AUG F)

Medium

21.9%


09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (AUG)

Medium

1.4%

1.6%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUL)

Medium

12.1%

12.1%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (AUG)

Low

-0.36

-0.53

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (AUG)

Low

93.8

92.5

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (AUG)

Low

-9.6

-10.6

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (AUG)

Low

-6.7

-7.8

CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (JUN)

High

CAD Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized (2Q)

High

1.6%

2.5%

CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

-0.5%

0.2%

12:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JUL)

Medium

1.3%

1.2%

12:30

USD Personal Income (JUL)

Medium

0.2%

0.3%

12:30

USD Personal Spending (JUL)

Medium

0.3%

0.5%

12:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.2%

0.2%

12:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (JUL)

Low

0.2%

0.4%

12:30

USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (JUL)

Low

1.5%

1.3%

13:00

USD Fed's Bullard to Speak on U.S. Economy in Memphis

Low

13:00

USD NAPM-Milwaukee (AUG)

Low

13:45

USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (AUG)

Medium

53.0

52.3

13:55

USD U. of Michigan Confidence (AUG F)

Medium

80.5

80.0

12:30 LIVE

12:30 LIVE

12:30 LIVE

1.6%

52.43


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Daily i forex report 1 28 08 2013