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DAILY I FOREX REPORT 4TH APRIL 2013

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HEADLINES

 USD/JPY Breakout Stalls, Is the Same in Store for GBP/USD and Gold?  Disappointing UK PMI For Construction Briefly Drives Pound Lower

TRADING TIPS  BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.2840 tgs 1.2860/1.2880 sl 1.2810

 SELL USDJPY BELOW 93.30 tgt 93.10/92.90 SL 93.60

 SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5075 Tgt 1.5055/1.5035 SL 1.5105

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 Euro Vulnerable On Soft Inflation Data Ahead Of ECB Rate Decision Euro Runs Slightly Higher on an IMF Contribution to the Cyprus Bailout The Euro received a boost at the end of an otherwise quiet European session, on the announcement that the IMF will contribute 1 billion Euros to the Cyprus bailout agreement. It is unclear if the pledge is an addition to the 10 billion Euro aid already agreed upon, or if the IMF will help contribute to that original amount. IMF Managing Director Lagarde said she will seek board approval for the aid in early May. The Euro rose to 1.2835 against the US Dollar following the news, as the Euro had battled to stay above the 1.2800 line earlier in the session. The 1.2820 support line may continue to provide support from here, and the 200 day moving average may provide support at 1.2882. Before the announcement, the Euro-zone annual inflation estimate was reported at a new 2.5 year low of 1.7%, following 1.8% inflation in February. The estimated inflation was slightly better than an expected 1.6% inflation level, and therefore did not have significant impact on Euro trading.

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HOURLY HOURLY EURUSD CHART EURUSD CHART 

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.2819 HIGH: 1.2838 LOW: 1.2790 CLOSE: 1.2820

 EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD  TREND : BULLISH  STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS  MACD =>-.0005(BULLISH SIGNAL)  RSI => 48(BULLISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY USDJPY CHART

 HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 93.34 HIGH: 93.69 LOW: 93.32 CLOSE: 93.50

 USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD  TREND: BEARISH  STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE  MACD => -0.07( BEARISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>53(BEARISH SIGNAL)


HOURLYGBPUSD GBPUSD CHART  HOURLY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.5108 HIGH: 1.5121 LOW: 1.5075 CLOSE: 1.5109

 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD  TREND: BEARISH  STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE  MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>

43(BULLISH SIGNAL)


HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 0.8484 HIGH: 0.8495 LOW: 0.8469 CLOSE: 0.8484

 EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS  TREND: BULLISH  STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS  MACD =>-.003(BULLISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>53(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 82.9010 HIGH: 82.0650 LOW: 82.8480 CLOSE: 82.9040

 USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD  TREND: BEARISH  STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE  MACD =>0.22(BEARISH SIGNAL)  RSI =>51(BEARISH SIGNAL)


ECONOMIC CALENDER Date

Time

Sun Mar 31

Mon Apr 1

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

23:50

JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (1Q)

High

-1

1

-10

23:50

JPY Tankan NonManufacturing Outlook (1Q)

High

9

11

3

23:50

JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex (1Q)

Medium

-2.0%

5.0%

6.8%

23:50

JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (1Q)

Medium

-8

-7

-12

23:50

JPY Tankan NonManufacturing Index (1Q)

Medium

6

8

4

23:50

JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (FEB)

Low

1.42%

01:00

CNY Manufacturing PMI (MAR)

High

50.9

51.2

50.1

01:45

CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (MAR)

Medium

51.6

51.6

50.4

04:39

CNY Leading Index (FEB)

Low

100.23

100.50

05:00

JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAR)

Low

-15.6%

-12.2%

12:58

USD Markit US PMI Final (MAR)

Low

54.6

55.0

54.9

14:00

USD ISM Manufacturing (MAR)

High

51.3

54.0

54.2

14:00

USD Construction Spending (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

1.2%

1.0%

-2.1%

14:00

USD ISM Prices Paid (MAR)

Medium

54.5

60.0

61.5

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (MAR)

Medium

44.4

45.6

23:00

AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (MAR)

Low

1.3%

0.3%

23:01

GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (MAR)

Low

20

13

23:50

JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (MAR)

Low

19.8%

15.0%

1.34%

Notes


Tue Apr 2

00:00

NZD ANZ Commodity Price (MAR)

Low

7.4%

01:30

JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-0.7%

-0.2%

0.1%

03:30

AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (APR 2)

High

3.00%

3.00%

3.00%

05:30

AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (MAR)

Low

-7.5%

-6.5%

05:30

AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (MAR)

Low

87.9

87.9

07:30

CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (MAR)

Medium

48.3

50.4

50.8

07:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR)

Low

44.5

45.3

45.8

07:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F)

Low

44.0

43.9

43.9

07:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F)

Medium

49.0

48.9

48.9

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F)

Medium

46.8

46.6

46.6

08:00

EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB P)

Medium

11.6%

11.8%

11.7%

08:30

GBP Mortgage Approvals (FEB)

Medium

51.7K

53.7K

54.2K

08:30

GBP Net Consumer Credit (FEB)

Medium

0.6B

0.4B

0.5B

08:30

GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (FEB)

Medium

0.9B

0.4B

0.3B

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR)

Medium

48.3

48.7

47.9

08:30

GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (FEB)

Low

3.1%

5.0%

5.8%

08:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (FEB)

Low

-0.5%

0.9%

08:30

GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (FEB)

Low

0.5%

-0.8%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (FEB)

Medium

12.0%

10:00

EUR ECB's Kranjec Presents Slovenia Economy Outlook, Banks

Low

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY)

High

1.1%

12.0%

12.0%

1.7%

1.8%


(MAR P)

Wed Apr 3

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR P)

High

1.3%

1.5%

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAR P)

Medium

0.3%

0.8%

12:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR P)

Medium

0.4%

0.6%

13:45

USD ISM New York (MAR)

Low

14:00

USD Factory Orders (FEB)

Medium

2.9%

-2.0%

14:00

USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (APR) (APR)

Low

45.5

42.2

15:20

EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks in Washington DC

Low

17:00

USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks on Monetary Policy in North Dakota

Low

17:30

USD Fed's Lockhart Speaks in Alabama

Low

21:00

USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (MAR)

Low

12.04M

11.99M

21:00

USD Total Vehicle Sales (MAR)

Low

15.30M

15.33M

23:01

GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

Low

23:30

USD Fed's Evans, Lacker Speak on Monetary Policy in Richmond

Low

00:00

AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (MAR)

Low

1.1%

1.9%

GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.2%

0.5%

-1000M

-1057M

58.8

1.10%

4.2%

00:30

AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (FEB)

Medium

01:00

CNY Nonmanufacturing PMI (MAR)

Medium

54.5

01:45

CNY HSBC Services PMI (MAR)

Medium

52.1

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (MAR)

Medium

48.0

46.8


09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 29)

Low

12:15

USD ADP Employment Change (MAR)

Medium

200K

198K

14:00

USD ISM NonManufacutring Composite (MAR)

Medium

55.6

56

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 29)

Low

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 29)

Low

2250K

3256K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 29)

Low

-750K

-4513K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 29)

Low

-1000K

-1596K

19:30

USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Los Angeles

Low

21:00

USD Fed's Bullard to Introduce Lecture in St. Louis

Low

22:30

AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (MAR)

Medium

48.5

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 29)

Low

-짜975.2B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 29)

Low

-짜267.6B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 29)

Low

-짜490.5B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 29)

Low

-짜640.2B

JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (APR 4)

High

0.10%

0.10%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

14.3%

9.9%

00:30

AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

0.3%

0.9%

00:30

AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (FEB)

Low

2.5%

-2.4%

07:45

EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR)

Low

43.5

43.6

07:50

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)

Low

41.9

41.9

Thu Apr 4

1.6%

1.8%

7.7%

439K


Fri Apr 5

07:55

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)

Medium

51.6

51.6

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAR F)

Medium

46.5

46.5

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)

Medium

46.5

46.5

08:30

GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR)

Medium

51.5

51.8

08:30

GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (MAR)

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

1.4%

1.9%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.2%

0.6%

11:00

GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (APR)

High

375B

375B

11:00

GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (APR 4)

High

0.50%

0.50%

11:30

USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (MAR)

Low

7.0%

11:30

USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (APR)

Low

47.1

11:45

EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (APR 4)

High

0.75%

0.75%

11:45

EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (APR 4)

Medium

0.00%

0.00%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 30)

Medium

353K

357K

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (MAR 23)

Low

3065K

3050K

12:45

USD Fed's Evans, Lockhart Speak on Monetary Policy in Ohio

Low

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 29)

Low

16:30

USD Fed's George Speaks on Economy in Oklahoma

Low

21:00

USD Fed's Yellen Speaks in Washington

Low

23:50

JPY Official Reserve Assets (MAR)

Low

$1258.8B

GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (MAR)

Low

7.9%

-$1333M

Low

-95


05:00

JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for April (Table)

Medium

05:00

JPY Leading Index (FEB P)

Medium

97.3

95

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (FEB P)

Low

91.9

91.6

07:00

CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (MAR)

Low

427.0B

430.0B

08:00

EUR Italian Deficit to GDP (YTD) (4Q)

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB)

High

-1.2%

-1.3%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Medium

-0.4%

1.2%

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

Medium

-1.5%

-2.5%

10:00

EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

1.1%

-2.5%

12:30

CAD Net Change in Employment (MAR)

High

5.0K

50.7K

12:30

CAD Unemployment Rate (MAR)

High

7.0%

7.0%

12:30

USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (MAR)

High

199K

236K

12:30

USD Unemployment Rate (MAR)

High

7.7%

7.7%

12:30

CAD Full Time Employment Change (MAR)

Medium

12:30

USD Average Hourly Earnings All Employees (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

0.2%

0.2%

12:30

USD Average Hourly Earnings All Employees (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

2.0%

2.1%

12:30

USD Change in Household Employment (MAR)

Medium

12:30

USD Change in Private Payrolls (MAR)

Medium

203K

246K

12:30

USD Trade Balance (FEB)

Medium

-$44.6B

-$44.4B

12:30

USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (MAR)

Medium

-15K

12:30

USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (MAR)

Medium

14.3%

12:30

CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (FEB)

Low

3.7%

Medium

33.6

170

0.10B

-0.24B


12:30

CAD Part Time Employment Change (MAR)

Low

12:30

CAD Participation Rate (MAR)

Low

66.7

66.7

12:30

USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (MAR)

Low

34.5

34.5

12:30

USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (MAR)

Low

10K

14K

14:00

CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (MAR)

Medium

52.2

51.1

19:00

USD Consumer Credit (FEB)

Medium

$15.000B

$16.151B

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Copy of daily-i-forex-report-BY EPIC RESEARCH 4 APRIL 2013  
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