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2 May 2011

2011 Energy Matters Summit Smart Grid: Instrumented-Interconnected-Intelligent How does a baby compare to a wind farm?

Š 2010 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

The World Is Changing

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Š 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

The Reality of Living in a Globally Integrated World

Increase in global water usage since the 1900s, twice the rate of human population growth

Idle computer capacity The losses of electrical energy due to inefficiency - around the world

Worth of produce is wasted in India because of outdated postharvest infrastructure

of total port volume in North America is empty containers 3

Lost annually in the US due to healthcare fraud

Annual consumer product and retail sales lost in United States due to supply chain inefficiencies

Spent on IT maintenance

Annual impact of congested roadways

Š 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

There is an explosion in information and real world events

WW Information volume doubling every two years 1.3B RFID tags in 2005 30B RFID tags by 2010

Capital market data volumes grew 1,750% 2003-06

3.3B mobile phone users in 2007 4

2 Billion internet users by 2011

Government and Military activities increasing Š 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

The question is “How to unlock value from information?”

How do I…

... Deal with extreme volumes of information?

… Uncover the information most relevant to my business?

… Leverage a greater variety of information?

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… Analyze and respond to information events as they happen?

… Respond to events in real time?

… Unlock the value of information better than my competition?

© 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

Our world is becoming

INSTRUMENTED Sensors

New Data

We now have the ability to measure, sense and see the exact condition of everything. Our world is becoming

INTERCONNECTED People, systems, and objects can communicate and interact with each other in entirely new ways.

Event Processing & Integration

New Insights

Visualization & Tuning

Process Innovation

Virtually all things becoming

INTELLIGENT We can respond to changes quickly and accurately, and get better results by predicting & optimizing for future events.

New & Optimized Business Processes 6

Š 2011 IBM Corporation


Analytics

Š 2010 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

Traditional Analytics and Stream Analytics open up new opportunities and provide greater value

Non-Traditional / NonRelational Data Sources

In-Motion Analytics

Ultra Low Latency Results

Traditional / Relational Data Sources Database

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At-Rest Data Analytics

Results

Š 2011 IBM Corporation


E-Baby

Š 2010 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

E-BABY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVbnrlqWG5I

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© 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

Neonatal Care • 1 in 14 babies are born premature in Canada • Approx 17% of babies born in NSW, Australia require some form of special care and 15% of NICU admissions are transferred after birth from a remote hospital • Premature babies can be up to 17 weeks early and weigh only 450gms • They can spend 3-4 months in NICU • Similar conditions apply elsewhere around the world

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© 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

Neonatal Care • Multiple devices are attached to the baby or humidicrib • Medical devices output via serial port in a range of formats • Indicative readings are recorded on paper every 30 or 60 minutes • Cost of care per baby is approx $100-150K not including morbidity related care http://preemie.info/cms/modules/news/

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© 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

Artemis Architecture Overview SpO2

BP

ECG

HR

MP50 Babylog8000

Clinical Information System

Configuration Server

FA QRS

HR Source Op EP

RR

AR PT

SpO2 Source Op

BP

BPA

WT

WTA

Sepsis

Artifact Entry Server

Alert Sink Op

BP Source Op CIS Source Op

Deployment Server

CIS Adapter

InfoSphere Streams Runtime Knowledge Extraction

Data Integration Mgr

Ontology Driven Data Mover Rule Modifier Data Miner HIR

Stream

Patient

Cognos

SPADE IDE

Deployment Server

Artifact Quality Mgr

USER INTERFACE

Medical Data Hub

CapsuleTech Server

Artifact Management

WebSphere Application Server DB2

Vendor UOIT 14

IBM Res

IBM Product

UOIT+IBM Res Š 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

Simple Example: Patient Instability

75% of readings < th for 20sec

75% of readings < th for 20sec where th = GestAge

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mean arterial pressure (MAP) > gestational age (GA) in weeks).

Š 2011 IBM Corporation


Wind Farms

Š 2010 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

Off-shore Wind Energy in Europe  Large Number of off-shore wind parks in planning – In particular: Netherlands, Germany (1551 turbines approved), UK – Map http://offshorewmep.iset.uni-kassel.de/index.html?page=windfarms&lang=de

 Goal: 15% of German power generation provided by off-shore wind parks.

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© 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

Inefficiency in Wind Energy Forecast ď&#x201A;§ In 2007, Vattenfall's engineers had to scrap their daily scheduling plans roughly every other day to reconfigure electricity supplies on the fly; in early 2008, such changes became necessary every day. Power plants had to cycle on and off inefficiently, and the company had to make emergency electricity purchases at high prices. Days of very high wind and low demand even forced the Vattenfall workers to quickly shut the wind farms down. (1) Actual - Estimate in MW

(2) 3000

2000

Typical Power Plant Size

1000

20 08 -1 201 20 08 -1 203 20 08 -1 205 20 08 -1 207 20 08 -1 209 20 08 -1 211 20 08 -1 213 20 08 -1 215 20 08 -1 217 20 08 -1 219 20 08 -1 221 20 08 -1 223 20 08 -1 225 20 08 -1 227 20 08 -1 229 20 08 -1 231

0

-1000

-2000

Maximum (per 15 min) Average (per 15 min)

-3000

Minimum (per 15 min)

Source:

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(1)

Technology Review: Lifeline for Renewable Power, January/February 2009, By David Talbot

-4000

(2)

http://www.vattenfall.de, Data for 12/2008

-5000

Š 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

IBM Solution: Weather Forecast Deep Thunder

Actual - Estimate in MW 3000

2000

1000

20 08 -1 201 20 08 -1 203 20 08 -1 205 20 08 -1 207 20 08 -1 209 20 08 -1 211 20 08 -1 213 20 08 -1 215 20 08 -1 217 20 08 -1 219 20 08 -1 221 20 08 -1 223 20 08 -1 225 20 08 -1 227 20 08 -1 229 20 08 -1 231

0

-1000

-2000

Maximum (per 15 min) Average (per 15 min)

-3000

Minimum (per 15 min)

-4000

-5000

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Š 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

Wind Park Efficiency Analysis and Optimization

 Large number of off-shore wind park in planning and construction – Germany: • 1551 turbines approved  Optimization problem: – Optimum placement of wind turbines in the give area (x, y, z) is not known

Source: www.dena.de

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© 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

Efficiency is Highly Dependent on Wind Direction Park efficiency depends on park layout and wind direction

Efficiency

Wind Speed

Alpha Ventus 12- 208 Turbines 21

Wind Direction (0 = N)

Source: RAVE Research at Alpha Ventus Š 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

Wind Farm Overview

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Š 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

View of Turbine Fault

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Š 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

View of Turbine Organizational Data

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Š 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

View of Turbine Sensor output data

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Š 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

Analysis of Turbine Faults

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Š 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

View of Turbine Power Curves

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Š 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

Wind Analysis

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Š 2011 IBM Corporation


Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom

Š 2010 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

Connections Drive Knowledge

Proactive

ng i nd a st r e nd

Relationships

Patterns

Principles

Information

Knowledge

Wisdom

Analytics Drives Proactivity

U

Data

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Reactive

Reactive

Connectedness

Reactive

Š 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

What makes a Smart Grid â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Smart?

Situational Awareness 31

Better Decisionmaking Š 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

IBM’s vision for Autonomic Computing “Intelligent” open systems that:  Manage complexity  Know themselves  Continuously tune themselves  Adapt to unpredictable conditions  Prevent and recover from failures  Provide a safe environment

Providing customer value  Increased return on IT investment  Improved resiliency and quality of service  Accelerated time to value

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Focus on business, not infrastructure

© 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

Autonomic Computing attributes Self-managing systems that deliver: Increased Responsiveness Adapt to dynamically changing environments

Operational Efficiency Tune resources and balance workloads to maximize use of IT resources

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Business Resiliency Discover, diagnose, and act to prevent disruptions

Secure Information and Resources Anticipate, detect, identify, and protect against attacks

Š 2011 IBM Corporation


Smart Grids – What’s Next?

© 2010 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

What makes a Smart Grid – Smart?

This new grid paradigm means the design and implementation of systems, software, and support must exhibit these basic fundamentals from a Utility perspective: • • •

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Flexible. The system will be able to sift data via a platformand device-agnostic approach. Accessible. The nature of the autonomic system is that it is always on. Transparent. The system will perform its tasks and adapt to a Utility's needs without dragging the Utility into the intricacies of its workings. © 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

What’s Next? A New Paradigm

• • • • • •

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Partnerships Alliances Teaming Collaboration Sharing Interconnectivity

• • • • • • •

With Customers Within the LDC LDC to LDC Regional Grids Provincial Grids National Grid North American Grid © 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

What’s Next? Connectivity •

Monitoring, Telemetry, and Control of the Grid at many levels – from Smallest Granularity to Largest Mass

Renewable Generation will be everywhere – wind and solar

A “Grid of Grids” – ubiquitous connectivity and free-flowing bidirectional communication is paramount

How big will biomass be and what will it be?

Grid complexity will grow exponentially

A supply chain model is the only way to manage the next generation grid

• • 37

Distributed Energy Storage Energy Inventory Redirection and Consumption

© 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

Conclusion How is a baby compared to a wind farm? They are exactly the same!

Our world is becoming

INSTRUMENTED Our world is becoming

INTERCONNECTED Virtually all things, processes and ways of working are becoming

INTELLIGENT

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Š 2011 IBM Corporation


2 May 2011

IBM Thank You Michael J Martin, MA, MBA, GDM, SCPM, PMP, CBNT 416-478-3483 direct 416-729-9991 cellular michael.martin@ca.ibm.com 39

Š 2011 IBM Corporation


11)e babies and smart grids are they the same thing