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The Latvian Transatlantic Organisation Rūpniecības str. 10, Rīga, LV-1010, Latvia Phone: (+371) 67322883 E-mail: lato@lato.lv www.rigaconference.lv www.lato.lv

Draft as of August 9, 2012 NOT FOR RELEASE

The Blackheads’ House, Riga Old Town September 14-15, 2012

DAY 1 - Friday, SEPTEMBER 14 15:30 – 15:55

Registration and welcome drink

15:55 – 16:00

Welcoming remarks by H.E. Mr. Andris Bērziņš, President of Latvia CONFIRMED

16:00 – 17.30

Opening discussion: Is the Euro the Problem or the Answer?

The mood in Europe is somber. History will judge if EU leaders have misdiagnosed the Eurozone crisis, focusing too much on tackling the increase in current government spending. The causes of the EU crisis stem from the divergence in competitiveness between the Eurozone’s core of strong economies and its struggling "periphery". EU reforms based solely on fiscal austerity can become self-defeating. If the single currency isn’t feasible without fiscal convergence and economic integration, the Eurozone must consolidate to save itself. Will the Eurozone survive the current crisis? The need for fiscal discipline has been recognized, but how can economic growth be achieved in a time of austerity? What is the right balance? Will this crisis bring Europe closer together or pull it apart? Video comment by Mr. Joseph Stiglitz, Economist, Professor at Columbia University, United States INVITED Mr. Valdis Dombrovskis, Prime Minister of Latvia CONFIRMED Mr. Andrus Ansip, Prime Minister of Estonia CONFIRMED Mr. Andrius Kubilius, Prime Minister of Lithuania INVITED Mr. Uffe Ellemann-Jensen, Chairman of Baltic Development Forum, Denmark CONFIRMED Prof. Leszek Balcerowicz, Professor of Economics at the Warsaw School of Economics, former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, former President of the National Bank of Poland CONFIRMED

Moderator:

TBD

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The Latvian Transatlantic Organisation Rūpniecības str. 10, Rīga, LV-1010, Latvia Phone: (+371) 67322883 E-mail: lato@lato.lv www.rigaconference.lv www.lato.lv

17:30 – 17:55

Coffee break conversation, Discussion with Mr. Uldis Bariss, Member of the Management Board, Latvenergo AS, Latvia and Prof. Alan Riley, The City Law School, Director of the LLM Programme, the United Kingdom on Free Electricity Market: Challenges and Opportunities

18:00 – 19:00

Discussion: Will Global Economic Restructuring Bring the West Back to Game?

The Western financial and economic crisis of 2008 has led to the restructuring of the global economy, correcting a historic anomaly by which Asian part in the global economy reduced by five times. Now, however, Asian and other emerging markets show strong commitments for growth, while a policy confused by interests and ideology drives the West towards a less promising route which is failing to deliver serious growth in short and medium terms. Will reforming the Western economic and financial model translate into returning global political might or has world changed for good?

Moderator:

Mr. Edgars Rinkevics, Foreign Minister of Latvia CONFIRMED H.E. Mr. Toomas Hendrik Ilves, President of Estonia CONFIRMED Mr. Michael Georg Link, Minister of State at the Federal Foreign Office of Germany CONFIRMED Mr. Bernard Cazeneuve, Minister Delegate for European Affairs of France CONFIRMED Ms. Vesna Pusić, Minister of Foreign and European Affairs of Croatia INVITED Ms. Judy Dempsey, International Herald Tribune, Columnist INVITED

19:30 – 21:25

Opening dinner, Dinner Speaker H.E. Mrs. Vaira Vīķe Freiberga, former President of Latvia. Venue: TBD

21:30 – 23:00

Night Owl Session I: How will Protracted Conflicts Impact European Policy in the Future?

There are risks of an increasingly multipolar Europe that will question the European Union common foreign and security policy. A number of small wars have been settled not by peace arrangements, choosing to freeze the positions of conflicting sides instead. How can the reduced power attraction of Europe help in resolving so called frozen conflicts, when Russia seems to be focused in retaining a fragile open-ended “status quo” and Europe fails to reach the consensus? Mr. Iurie Leanca, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Moldova CONFIRMED Amb. Charles Crawford, previously British Ambassador to Sarajevo, Belgrade and Warsaw and a founding partner of ADRg Ambassadors LLP CONFIRMED Amb. Matthew Bryza, Director of the International Centre for Defence in Estonia (ICDS) CONFIRMED

Moderator:

Dr. Martin Sieg, Foreign Policy Advisor to the German Bundestag INVITED Mr. James Nixey, Program Manager and Research Fellow, Chatham House, the United Kingdom CONFIRMED

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The Latvian Transatlantic Organisation Rūpniecības str. 10, Rīga, LV-1010, Latvia Phone: (+371) 67322883 E-mail: lato@lato.lv www.rigaconference.lv www.lato.lv

21:30 – 23:00

Night Owl Session II: Belarus: Stuck in a Moment and can’t Get Out of It?

Does the regime in Belarus has had a tight grip on its opposition and society? What bargaining tools internationally Belarus possesses with both - West and Russia? Are political repressions, control over media, and economic leverage the opportunities for bargaining? What is the real value of Belarus in the eyes of the Western and Russian decision makers? Has the West just lost it to Russia, or not yet? To which side will the West let Belarus roll? Prof. Andrew Michta, Director, Warshaw Office, German Marshall Fund of the United States TO BE INVITED

Moderator:

Dr. Oleksandr Pavlyuk, Senior Fellow, East West Institute, Ukraine CONFIRMED Mr. Andrew Wilson, Senior Policy Fellow of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the United Kingdom CONFIRMED Mr. Pauls Raudseps, Weekly magazine IR, Latvia CONFIRMED

21:30 – 23:00

Night Owl Session III: Arctic Resources, Regional Security in the North and Baltic Sea

The increasing geopolitical risks associated with dramatic Climate change has caused countries to grapple with an emerging Arctic security question. Europe and North America adapt their policy postures to accommodate increasing interest in shipping, energy and mineral development in the Arctic region. Northern Europe has everything to gain from a closer cooperation on areas such as the environment, climate change, natural resource extraction and defence between the Arctic, Nordic and Baltic countries. Analysts talk about “mini NATO” – a concentrated effort in the Arctic region to safeguard interests in the Arctic natural resources. Will Russia become a part of it or Arctic region will become another battle field? Mr. Arthur Chilingarov, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences CONFIRMED Prof. Nikita Lomagin, Deputy Head of World Economy Department, Faculty of Economics St.Petersburg State University, and Member of Steering Committee of the Northern Research Forum CONFIRMED Amb. Gustaf Lind, Swedish Ambassador for the Arctic, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Sweden CONFIRMED

Ms. Alyson Bailes, Visiting Professor, University of Iceland in Reykjavik, the United Kingdom CONFIRMED

Moderator:

Mr. Steffen Weber, Secretary General of the EU Arctic Forum; Expert Adviser on the Arctic Report, Germany CONFIRMED Mr. Andreas Klein, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung Representative to the Baltic States CONFIRMED

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The Latvian Transatlantic Organisation Rūpniecības str. 10, Rīga, LV-1010, Latvia Phone: (+371) 67322883 E-mail: lato@lato.lv www.rigaconference.lv www.lato.lv

DAY 2 - Saturday, SEPTEMBER 15 09:30 - 11:00

Morning discussion: NATO after Chicago: Struggling for Capabilities, Enlarge or Regionalize?

Recently, the US Administration outlined its new US defence strategy to strengthen its military presence in the Asia-Pacific. Will this cause implications to overall NATO capabilities in the future? Americans have a reason to see the Trans-Atlantic relationship with diminished relevance especially in the security policy area where burden sharing constantly turns into burden reduction. Is the new concept of smart defence NATO’s answer to current financial problems? What is NATO’s response to risk of growing political turmoil in Europe and in its neighbourhood, and risk of re-nationalization of European defence efforts? The range of policy choices is wide open, including further enlargement vs. regionalization. Video comment by Mr. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Secretary General of NATO INVITED

Moderator:

Dr. Artis Pabriks, Defence Minister of Latvia CONFIRMED Mr. Espen Barth Eide, Defence Minister of Norway CONFIRMED Adm. Giampaolo Di Paola, Defence Minister of Italy CONFIRMED Amb. Alexander Vershbow, Deputy Secretary General of NATO CONFIRMED Prof. Julian Lindley-French, Professor of Military Art and Science at the Royal Military Academy of the Netherlands and member of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Advisors Group CONFIRMED Mr. Robert Nurick, Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council of the United States CONFIRMED

11:00 – 11:25

Coffee break

11:30 – 13:00

Discussion: Europe in the Shadow of the US Strategic Debate: are we Loosing to Greater Middle East, Asia and Pacific?

The current US Administration released a new security document in January entitled "Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities For 21st Century Defence" indicating a strengthening of US military presence in the AsiaPacific region. Do Americans increasingly see Europe of diminishing importance? Americans don’t view Europe of becoming a unitary strategic actor, thus providing stronger arguments for re-nationalization of US relationships with European countries. Meanwhile, the political elite in Europe relies upon the US as its key strategic partner in security and foreign policy. Is there a way of closing the gap of perceptions? Video comment by Mr. Fareed Rafiq Zakaria, journalist, CNN INVITED Prof. Simon Serfaty, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair (Emeritus) in Global Security and Geostrategy at CSIS, Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States CONFIRMED Amb. Kurt Volker, Managing Director, Center for Transatlantic Relations, J.Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Washington DC CONFIRMED

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The Latvian Transatlantic Organisation Rūpniecības str. 10, Rīga, LV-1010, Latvia Phone: (+371) 67322883 E-mail: lato@lato.lv www.rigaconference.lv www.lato.lv

Moderator:

Ms. Julianne Smith, Deputy National Security Advisor to Vice President Joe Biden CONFIRMED Mr. Michel Miraillet, Director of the Department for Strategic Affairs, Ministry of Defence of France CONFIRMED Mr. Craig Kennedy, President of the German Marshall Fund of the United States CONFIRMED

14:00 – 16:00

Luncheon discussion Together in – Together out: What Next? hosted by Dr. Artis Pabriks, Defence Minister of Latvia with Key-note speakers Adm. Giampaolo Di Paola, Defence Minister of Italy and Dr. Hans Binnendijk, Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, the United States CONFIRMED Venue: TBD

16.30 – 18.00

Discussion: Russian Reset: Putin Returns

Election in Russia brought no surprises. But Vladimir Putin’s policies of autocracy for stability are no longer working well as protesters crowd in discontent. Though there is no Russian spring ahead just yet, the risk of a social and political explosion in Russia remains high. Putin failed to enforce a rule of law, curb corruption, and establish a system that provides a basis for sustainable economic development. Will it ring the alarm bell for Putin loud enough to trigger real reforms? What are the implications for the West if no reforms take place in Russia? Video comment by Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, former United States National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter (1977 – 1981) CONFIRMED Mr. Christian Schmidt, Parliamentary State Secretary to the Federal Minister of Defence, of Germany CONFIRMED Ms. Lilia Shevtsova, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment Moscow, Russia CONFIRMED Mr. Bobo Lo, Independent Scholar and Consultant, the United Kingom CONFIRMED Commentator: Mr. Malgin Artem Vladimirovich, Advisor to the Rector, Moscow Institute of International Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia CONFIRMED Moderator: Mr. Robert Cottrell, Founder of The Browser, Latvia CONFIRMED 20:00 – 21:30

Gala Reception hosted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Latvia Venue: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Latvia, K.Valdemāra str. 3

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Džimlai rīdi rallassā :))

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