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ENTSO-E Winter outlook 2011 - 2012

08.12.2011

Wim Michiels


ENTSO-E Winter outlook 2011-2012

• Presented in UG of end September: – Situation after the German nuclear moratorium & – Preliminary winter report based on qualitative assessment

• Now: definitive winter outlook report 20112012 based on quantitative analysis

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Normal conditions

OK

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Severe conditions • Weeks 49 & 50 of 2011 • Week 3,4, 5, 6 and 7 of 2012 • Key week: 50 in severe conditions – Import F: ~8000 MW – Import G: ~1600 MW + contracts 3800 MW

• In France: - 1°C  + 2300 MW 4


Week 50 (14 th December 2011)

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PS analysis is NOT a market simulation


Week 50 severe conditions • G & F require peak imports simultaneously • All interconnectors at full NTC • Countries acts as transit to G & F • Reactive voltage support in southern G will be key in ensuring flows • Coordination across all TSO’s neighbouring to F & G will be vital

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And for Belgium… • Belgium is less dependant of structural imports with regard to past winters: – more generation capacity – During certain weeks and severe winter conditions: • 47 to 50 in 2011 and • weeks 3,4 and 11 of 2012

structural import of 650 – 700 MW 7


Specific actions

• Planning process: max availability of XB lines • Process of coordination of PST’s in CWE region • ENTSO-E test of emergency communication and procedures • Simulator testing with neighbouring TSO’s • Procedure in case of shortage” (“schaarste” or “pénurie”)

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