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Methodology & Objective Methodology Weekly data scrapes of the Beer & Cider market looking at range, price and promotional mechanic in Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury’s, Morrisons, Waitrose, Ocado, Iceland, Amazon Pantry - monitoring ca 2,900 listings Top Ten Beer & Cider Brands in Grocery are Stella Artois, Budweiser, Foster’s, Carling, Strongbow, Carlsberg, Kopparberg, Corona, Peroni, Kronenbourg 1664 Objective Through our Beer & Cider Football Fever Index we are predicting who is best placed to capitalise on the World Cup Football Fever Index – Total Range Size, Range size of big packs (defined as 10 bottles / cans or more), % share of voice for big packs on page 1 search), Average price of big packs, % listings on promotion of big packs, depth of discount of big packs


Summary (1) - Sales of Beer & Cider traditionally peak during the World Cup and combined with a spell of hot weather, retailers and manufacturers will be hoping to overcome headwinds in the category (C02 shortage, overarching trends of falling sales in mass segments) and capitalise on the most successful run England have had in the competition, so far, since 1990 - To understand which retailers are best placed to benefit from positive World Cup sentiment we have looked at retailer strategy to determine the emphasis they have put on the World Cup with our ‘Football Fever Index’ - Within the index, we considered measures that would make it easier for shoppers to buy volume share generating bigger packs such as range size, % of bigger packs on page 1 search for the category, average prices and breadth and depth of promotion


Summary (2) - Retailers geared up for the World Cup in different ways -

-

Asda optimised early against even a broad search term ‘World Cup’ tying in a number of relevant products from different categories (Beer & Cider, party products and snacks), whereas other retailers returned only literal results (i.e. World Cup branded sticker books) or tea or noodles. This made the event seem more prominent in Asda until a time when other retailers had their dedicated football shelves in place 5 out of the 8 retailers had a dedicated Football store within a store, with Waitrose Amazon and Iceland perhaps missing the opportunity to put their own slant on the event

- Retailers offered variety to their shoppers, but this didn’t diverge from their ongoing ranging strategy -

Ocado & Asda have the greatest focus on big packs in terms of absolute size and proportion of range. Tesco, Morrisons offer wide ranges, with a mix of pack size. Sainsbury’s & Waitrose have a similar range size, Sainsbury’s has a comparatively high focus on big packs where Waitrose lean towards smaller packs. Amazon Pantry’s small range is mostly focused on large packs, whereas Iceland has a low proportion of big packs.


Summary (3) - Pricing strategy varied amongst retailers -

Asda offered the lowest price for big packs on average amongst the big 4 and Iceland had the lowest prices overall for big packs, despite a higher proportion of 15+ pack sized SKUs, making their price points good value overall for shoppers

- A high proportion of big packs were on deal -

Tesco had the highest level of promotional activity (i.e. listed SKUs on promotion) offering promotions across the whole range and hitting different shopper needs as well as on big packs. Asda & Morrisons also offered promotions across the range whereas Ocado, Sainsbury’s and Waitrose dialled up the emphasis on big pack deals vs the overall range keeping their promotions more focused on heavier usage occasions. Iceland promotional noise was lower, relying more on EDLP and Amazon Pantry did not run any promotions during this period

- Price on Promotion -

Asda had the biggest depth of discount, on average 20% on large packs, making them the cheapest of the set for big packs on promotion. Their heavily promoted price made them cheaper than Iceland for those products on deal

- Price Cuts were dialled up for larger packs vs Multibuys -

Across the range, price cuts were available on 18% of listings and 82% were in Multibuys, encouraging volume purchase across the small and mid pack ranges. For larger packs 46% were Multibuy and 54% Price Cuts, preventing price points falling too low. However, Tesco, Morrisons & Asda had over 50% of their big pack listings on multibuy to drive volume sales


Summary (4) -

Promotional mechanics can change

-

Share of search could be further optimised around this event

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Putting all the information together, Asda, Morrisons and Tesco come out on top for World Cup sentiment supporting the event with a wide range, volume and depth of offers

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Kopparberg, Corona Extra, Carling & Peroni were the top 10 brands with the deepest discounts vs average

-

-

-

-

Asda remained consistent with their multibuy deal strategy, offering 3 for £21 on 10 / 12 packs. Tesco and Morrisons began with 2 for £20 and whilst Tesco continued with that, Morrison switched their deal down to match Asda as the competition progressed

Retailers largely had a greater emphasis on big packs in their search algorithms vs their proportion of range which would drive volume sales. Ocado, Waitrose & Iceland could have optimised further to increase volume

Asda’s deepest discounts were with Heineken brands Strongbow & Kronenbourg 1664, so if Asda translate sentiment to shoppers, we could expect these brands to benefit

The biggest depth of discount overall (-27% in Asda) was Kronenbourg 1664 – which challenged Budweiser on its officially sponsored turf, not only via promotions but also packaging, leveraging their relationship with Eric Cantona to bring football to their brand


How are retailers packaging up Football Fever? 5 out of the 8 retailers have a football related dedicated store within a store, or shelf for inspiration and ideas which for Beer and Cider, included kegs and big packs as well as other party items such as snacks and decorations Neither Waitrose nor Iceland talked about the World Cup, instead offering inspiration for ‘Summer’, which may appeal to those not interested in football, however all other retailers also had a Summer section, so perhaps they missed out bringing their own angles to the festival of football at a time where share growth is hard to find?

Tesco Asda Sainsbury's Morrisons Ocado Waitrose Iceland Amazon Pantry

Football Focus Y - Get Match Ready Y - Love the Game Y - Football Fiesta Y - Feast of Football Y - Football Party N N N


Search optimisation As early as the beginning of May, Asda had optimised products against a search for ‘World Cup’ which returned an array of relevant products across categories such as kegs & big packs of beer and cider, snacks and party accessories Tesco, Asda and Ocado returned World Cup Panini sticker books and stickers, with Morrisons also returning dry cup noodles and confectionary Iceland returned a pack of tea Waitrose & Amazon Pantry search did not return any product  Asda showed early signs of optimising against this category opportunity Source; Search for ‘World Cup’ 7th May

Beer & Cider, Soft Drinks, Snacks, Bakery, Party Accessories, Video Games, Stickers, Noodles

Stickers, Noodles, Confectionary Tea

Stickers Stickers Stickers

-

-

0

0


Range Retailers offer different range mixes to their shoppers, but this didn’t diverge from their ongoing pack mix strategy Ocado & Asda have the greatest focus on big packs in terms of size and proportion of range Tesco, Morrisons offer wide ranges, with a mix of pack sizes offering choice across pack sizes Sainsbury’s & Waitrose have a similar range size, Sainsbury’s has a comparatively high focus on big packs and Waitrose share of large packs is the smallest in the set. Amazon Pantry’s small range is mostly focused on large packs, whereas Iceland has a low proportion of big packs Total Range 18th June

561

488

473

457

377

367

100

69

Big pack range 18th June

95

62

83

66

24

50

47

12

% Big Pack Range 18th June

17

13

18

14

6

14

47

17

14

Mid range 6 size

Mid range size 13

Small 40 range size

Small 14 range size

Low big pack range

Mid big pack range

Mid big pack range

Low big pack range

Largest

% Big range pack Largest big range pack range 18th May

Large

Large

Large range

Large big pack range

Large big pack range

Large big pack range

17range size 13 range size 14


Price Asda is the cheapest of the big 4 for big packs Reflecting the focus on smaller packs, Waitrose has the lowest price per pack overall, but one of the highest price points for big packs along with Ocado Amazon Pantry offer slightly larger packs overall (i.e. more 15+ packs 11% of range vs 4% average) and have a higher price point than the Big 4, whereas Iceland have a have a relatively high proportion of 15+ packs (9% vs 4% average) but offer lower price points, making their large packs comparatively good value


Promotional Strategy Tesco has most promotional noise in terms of proportion of total range & big packs on deal, meaning there were deals across the pack sizes and price points Morrisons & Asda offer more deals across the range and also have a high % of big packs on deal  wide promotional choice Ocado, Waitrose and Sainsbury’s promotions are fewer, with greater emphasis on bigger packs  targeted towards bigger packs Iceland offers are lower in comparison and with bigger packs commanding a lower share of deals  emphasising EDLP over promotions Amazon Pantry did not list any promotions

% listings on deal – total % listings on deal – big packs

Total

Tesco

Morrisons

Asda

Ocado

Waitrose

Iceland

Sainsburys

39

63

54

53

30

29

13

6

36

44

36

42

41

58

8

36


Depth of Discount Asda, has the deepest discount on both the total range and big packs, resulting in the lowest offer price for big packs Morrisons has a deep discount across the range, but shallower on the bigger packs Tesco has shallower discounts on the range and one of the highest offer price points overall Sainsbury’s has parity on depth of discount across the range at -16% Iceland has the shallowest discount for big packs, but one of the lowest price points Ocado has the shallowest discounts and highest big pack prices

Big Packs Avg Promoted £/u

£11.35

£9.36

£10.63

£12.07

£10.64

£12.07

£10.00

£13.17


Promotions v Depth of Discount More promotional noise

% range on deal

Asda & Morrisons had more emphasis on promotional noise as well as depth of discount across the range Waitrose, Sainsbury’s & Ocado had deeper discounts on fewer SKUs Tesco had more promotions, but shallower discounts Deeper discount

Iceland had a smaller number of shallower deals


Promotional Mechanic Asda, Tesco & Morrisons focus on Multibuys, with an increase in Price Cuts for bigger packs, but Asda offered the deeper multibuy mechanic on big packs Ocado, Iceland & Waitrose have over 50% multibuys across the range, but focus more heavily on Price Cuts for larger packs Sainsbury’s continue to prioritise price cuts over multibuys across the store All SKUs – % of listings on deal and in each promotional mechanic

Asda

Iceland

Morrisons

Ocado

Sainsburys

Tesco

Waitrose

Total

% Multibuy

89

67

93

69

0

93

49

82

% Price Cut

11

33

7

31

100

7

51

18

Big packs – % of listings on deal and in each promotional mechanic Asda

Iceland

Morrisons

Ocado

Sainsburys

Tesco

Waitrose

Total

% Multibuy

63

0

50

46

0

70

14

46

% Price Cut

37

100

50

54

100

30

86

54

Big Packs

Key Asda multibuys were was 3 for £21 on 10 / 12 packs and 4 for £6 singles Tesco offered more options 2 for £20 on 12 packs, 2 for £9 for mid packs and 4 for £6 or 3 for £5.25 for singles depending on category Morrisons started off as 2 for £20 on 10 / 12 packs, but has changed to 3 for £21 as the competition has progressed but also matched 2 for £10 on mid packs, 4 for £6 or 3 for £5.00 on singles


Share of Page 1 Search Retailers should optimise key searches around relevant events and they missed out on the opportunity to drive shoppers to their ‘football party’ shelves and cross sell into other relevant categories When searching for either ‘Beer’ or ‘Cider’ on retailers websites Amazon Pantry was the only site to return over 50% large packs, unsurprising given their focus on larger packs Asda, Tesco, Sainsbury’s & Morrisons returned a greater proportion than their range, putting more prominence on the bigger packs Ocado, Iceland & Waitrose could further optimise to drive volume

% Big pack range 18th May

40%

14%

13%

13%

14%

17%

14%

6%


Putting it all together Football Fever Index


And the winners are.. Primarily due to wide range, lower pricing and choice in big packs Results Table

Football Focused (index over 100)

Asda Morrisons Tesco Ocado Waitrose Sainsbury’s Iceland Amazon Pantry


Which brands will benefit? Different brands feature more prominently across the retailers in terms of range and depth of discount Asda list the highest number of top 10 brands online for all brands except Peroni and Kronenbourg 1664

Total Listings

Most heavily discounted brands are Kopparberg, Corona Extra, Carling and Peroni

Listings on promotion


Budweiser & Kronenbourg 1664 Budweiser as official sponsors of the World Cup, are in a good position to capitalise on it, and have the benefit of using official World Cup packaging Kronenbourg 1664 has used it’s links with Eric Cantona to celebrate the work cup in an unofficial way and is presenting an interesting challenge to the official sponsors

Budweiser

K1664

47

25

% of big packs

45%

52%

% listings with bespoke packaging

61%

59%

% on offer

30%

32%

Depth of discount

-14%

-13%

Number of listings

Football Fever Index  
Football Fever Index  
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