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2013 Annual Colorado Springs Metro Residential Real Estate Review


Market Overview In 2013 the residential real estate market in the Pikes Peak Region had an impressive year. The local market did not suffer as much through The Great Recession as many markets around the country; values locally dropped 17% vs 50%+ in other markets. This past year market values and sales units were strong, while the distressed sales market (short sales, foreclosures) all but dried-up. As has been the case for nearly 2 years, inventory levels remain low and have had a strong influence on prices increasing, even forcing some buyers to delay purchases.

deadlock and individuals not knowing the impacts of the new healthcare system. This lack of confidence showed itself as under contracts during the 4th Quarter dropped by 14% (612 units).

Residential real estate in the Colorado Springs metro area is set-up to have another strong year in 2014. Combine with the fact the market is trending up, our area is attractive with a stellar quality of life, excellent K-12 schools, fine higher education institutions including high growth at UCCS, leading industry sectors in space/amateur sports/homeland security/ Over the last quarter, the local market cooled down mining, and world-class recreational opportunities. significantly with the likely culprits being lack of buyer The Pikes Peak region will continue to be a place confidence due to concerns over the federal financial where families and professionals choose to live.

The number of sold units is always a great barometer to gauge the heath of a market. For the size of our metro area, the 10,000 unit barrier is healthy. In 2013 we had an 18% jump in units sold and we expect the upcoming year to nudge above 11,000.

Annual Sales 14,000

13,124

13,000

11,911

11,746

10,795 10,204

9,995

8,339

8,745

11,000 10,000

9,147 8,185

12,000

9,000

8,439

8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013


Annual Data Annual Average Months of Inventory 9.0

8.8

8.0

7.7

7.6 7.0

7.0

6.3 6.0

5.4

5.1

4.7

4.4

5.0 4.1

3.9

4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Inventory levels are determined by dividing the number of homes sold by the number of active listings. Many economists say a balanced market is 6.0 months. Also, inventory levels are often an early predictor of what is to come in a real estate market.

The graph below shows the number of current active listings on the market for the same period over the past 10 years. By seeing 10 years of data you can better judge the significance of the number and the state of the current market.

Active Listings 6000 5000

4000 3000 2000 1000

0 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013


Annual Data Annual Sales Prices $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 Average

$210,000 Median

$190,000 $170,000 $150,000 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

The above chart shows the annual average & median sales prices for the past decade. Sales prices are the true “score” of the market. All other statistics often influence price, but not always. You can really see how the market has steadily improved since 2011.

This is new data we’ve been tracking this year. By tracking the number of under contracts each month, it allows us to watch the immediate performance of the market and forecast what lies ahead in the next 60-90 days. Most under contract properties will sell over the next 30-60 days.

Under Contract 1400 1200 1000 800

600 400 200 0 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013


Annual Data Annual Foreclosure Starts 6000

5470

4828

4602 3556

5000

3603

4000

3454

2570 2298

3000

2289

1861

1954

2000 1000

0 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

The number of foreclosure starts is a reflection of many factors including: current economic health, jobs, cost of living and home prices. Additionally, when a home is sold as a foreclosure or short sale it is often at a discount which then negatively impacts home values .

The building of new homes is another good indicator of the market. The building of new homes in the area has recovered and the current rate of nearly 3000 homes per year is very healthy. There is pent-up demand for new homes in our market, just trying to keep up with natural population growth. If the real estate market stays healthy and lending prices stay reasonable, new home sales will likely hit 3500 in 2014.

Single Family Starts 7000

6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0


Annual Update Homeowners Insurance Update Colorado Paid Storm & Wildfire Claims Payout $1,400,000,000 $1,200,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $800,000,000

$600,000,000 $400,000,000 $200,000,000

$2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

This graph shows you the claims paid out by insurance companies due to wind, hail, tornado and wildfire. Figures are not yet in for 2013 but with the Black Forest Fire and the flooding last year the number will be significant again. Based on this information and knowing insurance companies are in the business of making money, premiums in Colorado will likely increase. Additionally, many insurance companies are

looking at changing deductibles in the state of Colorado. Some are looking at simply higher deductibles/ premiums, others are looking into rolling-out deductibles similar to areas prone to hurricanes where your deductible is a % of your total claim. I encourage you to contact your insurance agent to see if any changes are coming your way. While you are speaking with them, it is always a good idea to make sure your coverage is appropriate.

Looking Forward As 2014 begins, the residential real estate market is set-up for another strong year. A few of the real big drivers for 2014 will continue to be new home construction and the low number of foreclosures. The effect of these will be continued price appreciation which will minimize many investor purchases. With this said, those investors seeking long term investments will find residential real estate attractive as the market is trending up with signs the it will continue for some time. With the vast majority of homes being purchased as principle residences, the local economy will benefit; 

New Jobs—New home construction is a huge economic driver for our area. When new homes are built people are hired to build these homes and to staff the companies who provide the materials.

Seller Relief—Sellers who put off selling because they were upside-down may very well be able to sell now that their home has increased in value. These sellers are now in a better financial situation.

Buyer Options—Some buyers actually had to put-off buying in 2013 as they could not find what they wanted. With more listings now coming on the market, these buyers will have success.

We see 2014 being slightly better than last year as units sold will bump-up again, as will sales prices. If our area brings more employers to town and the military missions remain the same, it could make for a very special year.


Annual Update Chance of Selling Ever wonder what your chance of selling is? This chart shows the chance of selling in the next 30 days based on your listing price. It is critically important to price your home correctly and have it in move-in condition when selling if you want to be successful. 30% 25% 20%

15% 10% 5% 0%

Fun Facts From 2013 

Most expensive sale of the year in El Paso County was in Broadmoor Resort for $2,775,000

Most expensive sale of the year in Teller County was north of Woodland Park for $1,430,000

Largest home sold this year in El Paso County was a 16,945 square foot home on Cheyenne Mountain

Largest home sold this year in Teller County was a 7138 square foot home in Pikes Peak Resort

Quick Hits From 2013 

Number of Units Sold was up 18% (1648 units more than 2012)

Prices were up about 6% for Average Sales Price and 7% for Median Sales Price

Inventory Levels for the year averaged 4.1 months, compared to 4.7 in 2012

New Home Permits were up 465 units (2855 for 2013)

Foreclosure Starts dropped by nearly 1600 units to 1861, the lowest level in 10 years

Under Contracts were down during the last quarter by nearly 15%


Quarterly Pricing Tools 3-Month Area Comparisons for Single Family & Patio Homes This chart is ideal for helping you determine how your neighborhood is doing. If you are considering selling your home, this information is just one tool you can reference to assist you with pricing your home strategically. Call me if you need assistance utilizing this graph. Area Comparisons for Single Family & Patio Homes For October 1, 2013 - December 31, 2013 Area

Listings

Solds

DOM

Inventory

Avg List $

Avg Sales $

Black Forest

81

41

84

5.9

$629,852

$443,583

Briargate

204

137

64

4.5

$350,322

$298,795

Calhan

27

13

210

6.2

$215,784

$154,308

Central

172

151

71

3.4

$245,048

$181,551

Drennan

12

8

85

4.5

$182,942

$111,000

East

163

151

65

3.2

$222,403

$190,963

Ellicott

28

19

100

4.4

$287,820

$219,668

Falcon

33

38

44

2.6

$247,438

$168,383

Falcon North

161

111

99

4.4

$319,692

$265,361

Fountain Valley

376

308

77

3.7

$214,820

$196,212

Manitou

26

11

88

7.1

$473,185

$389,345

Marksheffel

55

35

60

4.7

$308,948

$249,246

Midway

8

2

141

12.0

$182,388

$49,292

Northeast

159

163

65

2.9

$308,318

$236,569

Northgate

104

73

81

4.3

$436,167

$384,186

Northwest

132

95

69

4.2

$432,165

$335,613

Old Colorado City

61

49

68

3.7

$212,870

$213,911

Peyton

26

22

55

3.5

$527,702

$265,418

Powers

221

244

52

2.7

$233,936

$227,547

Rock Creek

7

8

51

n/a

$897,257

$266,738

Southeast

124

123

66

3.0

$146,874

$137,544

Southwest

208

121

77

5.2

$731,159

$288,573

Tri Lakes

178

102

99

5.2

$548,273

$417,370

Ute Pass

34

9

63

11.3

$363,406

$148,222

West

38

49

72

2.3

$573,625

$291,336

Divide

57

20

83

8.6

$384,363

$189,451

Woodland Park

80

49

69

4.9

$474,698

$291,425


Quarterly Pricing Tools 3-Month Price Comparisons for Single Family & Patio Homes This chart combined with the previous one will help you determine your listing price if you are considering selling your home. Call me if you need assistance utilizing this graph. List Price

Active Listings

Solds

Days on Market

Inventory

Supply

Demand

Days to Sell

Months

Under $75,000

99

52

73

5.7

$75,000 to $99,999

117

75

73

4.7

$100,000 to $124,999

194

113

82

5.2

$125,000 to $149,999

336

207

69

4.9

$150,000 to $174,999

359

257

65

4.2

$175,000 to $199,999

435

240

61

5.4

$200,000 to $224,999

368

203

63

5.4

$225,000 to $249,999

391

232

77

5.1

$250,000 to $274,999

288

169

94

5.1

$275,000 to $299,999

305

138

79

6.6

$300,000 to $324,999

189

73

86

7.8

$325,000 to $349,999

182

91

75

6.0

$350,000 to $374,999

164

74

72

6.6

$375,000 to $399,999

183

63

79

8.7

$400,000 to $424,999

79

30

138

7.9

$425,000 to $449,999

93

23

105

12.1

$450,000 to $474,999

50

20

99

7.5

$475,000 to $499,999

73

28

109

7.8

$500,000 to $549,999

87

36

102

7.3

$550,000 to $599,999

96

20

94

14.4

$600,000 to $649,999

63

17

81

11.1

$650,000 to $699,999

61

13

40

14.1

$700,000 to $749,999

28

8

112

10.5

$750,000 to $799,999

45

5

67

27.0

$800,000 to $849,999

9

1

224

27.0

$850,000 to $899,999

17

1

172

51.0

$900,000 to $949,999

6

1

627

18.0

$950,000 to $999,999

23

1

460

69.0

$1 mil to $1.50 mil

60

8

91

22.5

$1.5 mil to $2.0 mil

25

2

51

37.5

$2.0 mil & above

17

0

n/a

n/a


ERA Shields Real Estate was founded in 1985. The firm is locally owned and comprised of a TEAM of individual real estate brokers who work together to provide professional real estate services. Our offices are designed to enhance the synergy amongst our team as we continue to set the bar for success in real estate.

ERA Shields Real Estate handles more relocation business than any other firm in the Pikes Peak region. We are the Principle Broker for Cartus (the world’s largest Relocation company in the world) which handles nearly 160,000 transfers each year across 165 countries.

ERA Shields Real Estate is a Top 25 Broker for ERA Real Estate. ERA Real Estate is a global real estate franchise with 31,000 sales associates in 1800 offices located in 36 countries. It is committed to bringing technology and services to its agent base which allow them to serve their clients in today’s world.

ERA Shields Real Estate is an award-winning residential real estate company for the Pikes Peak region. Annually we are recognized locally & nationally for our production and for our involvement in our community. Our agents are full-time professionals working to be Your Trusted Advisor.

ERA Shields Real Estate is committed to the Community. In 2013 we raised over $45,000 for MDA, volunteered in excess of 2000 hours and have received The Community of Kindness Award & Circle of Light Award. Our agents are encouraged to invest in our community.

The data found within the ERA Shields Real Estate Annual Review is based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR® Services Corporation (RSC) or its PPMLS, El Paso CountyTrustee, and Pikes Peak Regional Building Department. This content is deemed reliable; however RSC, PPMLS and ERA Shields Real Estate do not guarantee its accuracy. Data maintained by RSC does not reflect all real estate activity in the market.


Annual Colorado Springs Market Report