__MAIN_TEXT__

Page 1

NOVEMBER | 2020

OUTLOOK for 2021 Market Survey among Danish Investors and Businesses


OUTLOOK FOR 2021

OUTLOOK FOR 2021

Main Conclusions

p6

%

t sustainability rtant for their vestments. 34

36%

of investors expect tougher financing conditions in 2021. See more on page 20

92%

8 0%

of industrial businesses are considering buying rather than renting. See more on page 32

of investors expe ct interest rates to remain unch anged. See more on page

Still considerable investment appetite despite coronavirus

20

Contents Sustainability – large businesses show the way 7

p33 For questions please contact: EDC International Poul Erik Bech marketingerhverv@edc.dk +45 5858 8564

p. 3

Conclusion

p.4

Background for the Survey

p. 6

Main Conclusions

p. 8 p. 10 p. 12 p. 14 p. 18 p. 20

Investment Volume Property Type Danish Housing Regulation Geography Financing

p. 22 p. 23 p. 26 p. 28 p. 31

Businesses Relocation Location Costs of Premises Rent vs. Own

p. 33

Sustainability

p. 37

Background for the Survey

2

p8


OUTLOOK FOR 2021

Conclusion The future is nowhere near as bleak as feared: Still great investment appetite This is the sixth survey of property market expectations conducted by EDC Erhverv Poul Erik Bech. Yet again, more than 1,200 businesses and investors have taken the time to respond. Thank you!

In turn, the survey shows that the prospects for residential rental properties are slightly less bright than last year. This is probably ascribable to the recent amendments to section 5(2) of the Danish Housing Regulation Act. Half of all investors which have so far focused on older residential properties will adjust their strategy, which could lead to a decline in demand. This is due to the intervention against shortterm investments in older rental dwellings. For example, a five-year qualifying period has been introduced before a new owner may raise the rent. In addition, energy-efficiency requirements have been made more stringent and the same applies to the materiality concept, under which the permitted rent could be 10% above the market rent. Furthermore, tenants’ rights have been improved. Despite this, residential rental property is the segment in which most investors (34%) expect rising prices.

With the high response rate – from all parts of Denmark – the survey provides a solid picture of how investors and businesses expect the commercial property market to develop in 2021. And prospects are nowhere near as bleak as many feared when the coronavirus crisis suddenly erupted in Denmark and the rest of the world in spring 2020. Much of the economy has since recovered, and most businesses are back in good shape, although hotels, eateries, event organisers and travel agencies remain hard hit. Investors and businesses are therefore not quite as optimistic about the development in retail premises, but the overall expectations for this segment are generally more positive than a year ago. It may indicate that many expect the worst to be over.

Falling retail property prices The reverse is the case for the retail property segment, where only 17% expect prices to increase, while 42% expect prices to fall. This is probably explained by the structural changes that the retail trade is undergoing, with e-commerce accounting for an increasing share of the total trade. However, while impacting the retail segment negatively, this development is positive news for the logistics industry. The coronavirus situation has significantly impacted the Danes’ consumption patterns, with more money being spent on physical goods and less on services.

Still great investment appetite Despite the coronavirus situation, there is still a considerable investment appetite, with 49% expecting to invest more in real property than last year, while just under 30% intend to invest the same amount. Overall, the figures reflect an investment appetite on a par with last year. One of the explanations for the great interest in real property investment is the historically low interest rates, where nine out of ten respondents expect the current low level to continue or even a further drop in interest rates.

The responses provided by the businesses surveyed indicate a growth market. There is a great willingness to relocate, with the principal reasons still being a lack of space. On the other hand, fewer respondents intend to spend more money on their business premises than in previous years.

As in previous years, residential rental properties remain by far the most popular property type, in which eight out of ten respondents would like to invest. This is followed by mixed properties – with every third respondent expressing an interest – while one in six investors has their sights on warehouse/production properties, which for a long time have been characterised by very low vacancy rates and high demand.

This year we have, for the first time, asked investors about the importance of sustainability certificates. A total of 62% attach importance to properties having a green stamp from, for example, Green Building Council Denmark, and 8% attach great importance to this. So, all in all, the conclusion of the Expectations Survey 2021 is that the future is nowhere near as bleak as feared. There is still a considerable investment appetite for commercial properties.

3


OUTLOOK FOR 2021

Facts about the Survey

1.205

respondents in total. Data is collected in the period 7 September to 5 Oktober 2020.

Do you own or rent your primary premises?

54% 46% • Rent

• Own Total: 530

Do you invest in properties not for your own use?

52% 48% • Yes

• No Total: 1.205

4


OUTLOOK FOR 2021

Breakdown of participants:

52%

West of Denmark

48%

East of Denmark

1 employee:

39%

2-25 employees:

47%

26-100 employees:

7%

5

101-500 employees:

3%

500+ employees:

4%


OUTLOOK FOR 2021

Main Conclusions

3 3%

of invest ors expe ct increa vacancy sed rates in 2021. See mo re on pa

ge 14

4 2%

of investors expect falling retail property market prices. See more on page 17

65 %

5 0%

of investors believe th at sustainability certifications are impo rtant for their choice of property inv estments. See more on page 34

of investors w ill pursue the same strategy of bu ying older resi de ntial rental proper ties following th e amendments to section 5(2) of th e Danish Housi ng Regulation Act. Se e more on page

14

6


OUTLOOK FOR 2021

36%

of investors expect tougher financing conditions in 2021. See more on page 20

92%

8 0%

of industrial businesses are considering buying rather than renting. See more on page 32

of investors expe ct interest rates to remain un changed. See more on page

20

7


Investment

8


INVESTMENT | VOLUME | PROPERTY TYPE | DANISH HOUSING REGULATION | GEOGRAPHY | FINANCING

Still considerable investment appetite despite coronavirus Residential property investments still the most popular 49% expect to invest more in real property than last year, while just under 30% intend to invest about the same, and 24% will invest less than in 2020. Overall, the figures reflect an investment appetite on a par with last year. In other words, the economic downturn in the wake of the coronavirus crisis has overall not put a brake on investors’ appetite for bricks, even though the COVID-19 virus is impacting property valuations of, in particular, retail premises.

high demand for residential properties in the period up to the intervention with resulting price increases. When it comes to vacancy, every third respondent expects longer vacancy periods in 2021, while two in three do not expect any increase in vacant square metres. Intervention dampens interest in older housing stock In July 2020, the amended section 5(2) of the Danish Housing Regulation Act entered into force, making the new and highly controversial interventions against so-called shortterm property speculators a reality. This has made it more difficult to refurbish dwellings in newly acquired rental properties built before 1992. Overall, as mentioned earlier, investors still have a strong interest in residential properties, but we have also asked how the intervention affects investors who have bought older residential properties in the past. Roughly speaking, one half will continue to buy older residential properties, even though the intervention has reduced the return on these investments.

About one in four investors focuses on the core or core+ segment, i.e. properties that are more or less fully let and generate a stable return from day one. However, nearly two out of three investors prefer the value-add segment or properties with a certain development potential, for example in the form of vacancies or a potential for conversions or improvements. Finally, a little more than one in ten is looking for opportunistic investments, which comprise more extensive property development. As in previous years, residential rental properties remain by far most popular property type, in which eight out of ten would like to invest. This is followed by mixed properties – with every third respondent expressing an interest – while one in six investors has their sights on warehouse/production properties, which have for some time been characterised by very low vacancy rates.

The other half of investors have instead adjusted their strategy: 42% have become more reluctant to buy older residential properties, while 8% have completely dropped the older properties and will only invest in newer residential properties where rentals can still be set freely. Steady interest rates – perhaps harder to borrow A very large majority expect more or less unchanged interest rates next year – this is predicted by 80% against 63% in 2020 and 56% two years ago. The rest of the respondents expect either lower or higher interest rates (10% and just under 11%, respectively). Last year, one in four expected lower interest rates, while 11% predicted higher interest rates.

In our survey, investors can tick more than one type of preferred property. This means that just under 15% will invest in office premises, while only one in ten is interested in shop premises. The reason for the low figures may be twofold: firstly that retail premises are currently marked by historically high vacancy rates, and secondly that the coronavirus crisis has been costly for many branches of the retail trade, for example eateries, which had otherwise seen high growth in recent years.

Although interest rates are expected by most respondents to remain very low, it may become harder to borrow money for bricks. This is estimated by nearly 37% – an increase from 30% in 2020 and 20% in 2019. Just 4% predict that it will be easier to borrow funds for property investments – down from 8% in the previous two years. However, a large majority of six out of ten believe that borrowing facilities will remain largely unchanged.

More investors expect higher prices In the 2020 survey, fewer investors believed in increasing property prices, but this year the picture has changed for three of the four property segments: For offices, residential properties and warehouse/production properties, more respondents expect higher prices, and, correspondingly, fewer believe in lower prices for the retail segment.

If some investors find it harder to borrow money, the parties involved will probably have to work harder to conclude deals, and new creative sources of financing may gain ground. For example, seller financing may become more popular again, just as mortgages can make a certain comeback. In addition, small-scale crowdfunding has gained a foothold in the real property industry.

For residential rental properties, the picture is the opposite: Here, fewer respondents expect rising prices – 34% against 42% last year. There are two possible explanations: firstly the amendments to the Housing Regulation Act, which limit opportunities for returns on investments in modernising older housing stock, and, secondly, the very

9


INVESTMENT | VOLUME | PROPERTY TYPE | DANISH HOUSING REGULATION | GEOGRAPHY | FINANCING

32%

of investors investing in esidential rental properties expect market prices to increase.

50%

of investors will continue the same strategy of buying older residential rental properties following the amendments to section 5(2) of the Danish Housing Regulation Act.

63% of investors invest in real properties with development potential (value-add).

10


INVESTMENT | VOLUME | PROPERTY TYPE | DANISH HOUSING REGULATION | GEOGRAPHY | FINANCING

Still strong interest in real property investments Among the investors surveyed, about half will allocate more money to real properties in the coming year. In total, 76% of the investors surveyed will maintain or increase their real property investments in 2021. This is around the same level as last year. In the past six years, the proportion that will increase their real property investments has increased from 38% to 49% since 2016.

Do you plan to allocate more/less funds for property investments in 2021?

100% 80%

38%

54%

46%

47%

51%

49%

27%

30%

26%

27%

27%

23%

23%

24%

2018

2019

2020

2021

60% 40%

51%

30%

20% 0%

11%

16%

2016

2017 Less money

!

76%

Unchanged

More money

expect to unchange or increase Property Investments.

11

Total: 580


INVESTMENT | VOLUME | PROPERTY TYPE | DANISH HOUSING REGULATION | GEOGRAPHY | FINANCING

Residential rental properties increasingly popular in uncertain times Most of the investors surveyed will invest in residential rental properties in the coming year. Not surprisingly, the retail segment is the least popular, with only 9% of the respondents wanting to invest in this segment in 2021. Retail is the segment that has been hardest hit by the coronavirus crisis.

What property types are potential investments for you in 2021? (You are welcome to choose more than one)

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 80%

33%

17% ed

en

tia

Pr

en

ta

lP

pe

rt

80%

er

ro

ffi

st

op

lR

!

du

ix

sid

9%

O

In

M

Re

15%

tie

ria

ce

lP

s

O

ta

il

th

er

ro

pe

rt

s

Re

5%

ie

s

ie

s

of the investors see residential rental properties as potential investments in 2021. “A safe haven in uncertain times”.

12

Total: 547


INVESTMENT | VOLUME | PROPERTY TYPE | DANISH HOUSING REGULATION | GEOGRAPHY | FINANCING

Section 5(2) of the Danish Housing Regulation Act has mild impact on investors In this year’s edition of our expectations survey, we focus on the controversial amendments to section 5(2) of the Danish Housing Regulation Act, the object of which is to put a stop to property speculators and rent increases in the older housing stock. We have sought to establish whether the new amendments to the act are having an impact on investors’ appetite for investing in older residential rental properties. The survey shows that investors have not been hugely affected by the amendments to the act, as 50% of the respondents will continue to invest in older residential rental properties.

Do the amendments to section 5(2) of the Danish Housing Regulation Act have a bearing on your choice of investment properties?

50%

42% 8%

• Yes, I only buy new residential rental properties now • Yes, I am more cautious about investing in older residential rental properties • No, I am will be pursuing the same strategy of buying older residential rental properties Total: 425

Section 5(2)

The amendments to section 5(2) of the Danish Housing Regulation Act were adopted in June 2020, the object being to reduce short-term acquisitions of older residential rental properties. The amendments to the act will only affect properties located in regulated municipalities that are subject to the Danish Housing Regulation Act. A five-year qualifying period is being introduced during which the new owners are not allowed to let the properties in accordance with section 5(2) of the Danish Housing Regulation Act. A green incentive has been introduced which makes it possible to avoid the qualifying period by improving the energy efficiency of the property by three classes or making energy efficiency improvements for a minimum of DKK 3,000 per m². 14


INVESTMENT | VOLUME | PROPERTY TYPE | DANISH HOUSING REGULATION | GEOGRAPHY | FINANCING

Many investors are looking for higher returns by focusing on value-add and opportunity investments. However, 26% prefer safe core/core+ investments.

What is your primary investment type?

11%

26%

63%

• Properties with development potential (value-add) • Fully developed properties (core/core+) • New development (opportunity) Total: 536

16


INVESTMENT | VOLUME | PROPERTY TYPE | DANISH HOUSING REGULATION | GEOGRAPHY | FINANCING

When it comes to vacancy, every third respondent expects longer vacancy periods in 2021, while two in three do not expect any increase in vacant square metres.

Do you expect increased vacancy rates in 2021?

67%

33%

• No

• Yes

Total: 526

A divided property market Price development expectations vary by property type. Expectations are lowest for the retail market, with 42% of investors actually expecting falling prices in 2021. By contrast, expectations look somewhat more positive for office properties, where only 22% expect falling prices, and 51% expect unchanged prices in 2021. On the other hand, demand for industrial properties has increased in recent years, and especially modern logistics properties have attracted strong interest. 85% of investors expect industrial property prices to remain unchanged or increase in 2021. 100% 80%

17%

27%

33%

52%

46%

15%

21%

Industry

Properties

41%

60% 40%

33%

51% 42%

20% 22% 0% Offices

Retail Increases

Remains unchanged

17

Decreases


INVESTMENT | VOLUME | PROPERTY TYPE | DANISH HOUSING REGULATION | GEOGRAPHY | FINANCING

Geography

87%

9%

of the surveyed investors plan to invest abroad in 2021.

80%

of investors who invest in the Greater Copenhagen Area in 2020 also want to invest there in 2021.

of investors who invest in Aarhus in 2020 also want to invest there in 2021.

86% 67% of investors who invest in Odense in 2020 also want to invest there in 2021.

of investors who invest in Aalborg in 2020 also want to invest there in 2021.

18


INVESTMENT | VOLUME | PROPERTY TYPE | DANISH HOUSING REGULATION | GEOGRAPHY | FINANCING

Large cities still investors’ favourite For the third year running, the Greater Copenhagen Area is the preferred area for investors. Generally, the survey clearly shows that investors are still interested in investing in large cities, where the vacancy risk is lowest, and investments likely to generate a more stable cash flow. The survey shows that investors prefer to invest in the areas in which they are already investing, where they can rely on their local expertise. The survey also shows that approximately one in ten wants to invest abroad, which also applies to those who want to cover the whole of Denmark.

North Jutland 7% in 2020

7% in 2021

Where is your business located today? + Where would you like to invest?

Aalborg 6% in 2020

5% in 2021 Abroad 7% in 2020 • 9% in 2021 Nation-wide 9% in 2019 • 8% in 2020

Central Jutland 19% in 2020

21% in 2021

North Zealand

Aarhus

15% in 2020

17% in 2020

15% in 2021

18% in 2021

CPH/Fr.berg

West/South Jutland

21% in 2020

21% in 2021

14% in 2020

14% in 2021 Funen

West/South Zealand

7% in 2020

7% in 2021

12% in 2020

Odense 6% in 2020

7% in 2021

19

12% in 2021

Copenhagen Suburbs 22% in 2020

25% in 2021


INVESTMENT | VOLUME | PROPERTY TYPE | DANISH HOUSING REGULATION | GEOGRAPHY | FINANCING

Belief in continued low interest rates, but more difficult financing Investors share the expectation that interest rates will remain at the current historically low level. Even though interest rates are expected to remain low, several investors are concerned about their financing options for 2021. Compared with recent years, investors increasingly expect interest rate levels to remain unchanged, and fewer investors expect interest rates to increase. As many as 36% of investors expect that it will become more difficult to obtain financing in 2021, whereas only 4% of investors expect that it will become easier. The share of investors who expect more difficult financing conditions has thus increased in recent years. This trend indicates that investors will have to work harder to complete transactions, and new creative financing options will probably gain ground. Seller financing and sales of mortgage deeds may therefore become popular again.

How do you expect the interest rate level to develop in 2021?

100% 80%

80% 60%

63%

56% 41%

40%

25% 20% 0%

12%

3% 2019

10%

2020

Increases

10% 2021

Remains unchanged

Total: 515

Decreases

How do you see the possibilities of obtaining financing for Property Investments in 2021?

100% 80%

72% 62%

60% 40%

60% 36%

30% 20%

20%

8%

8%

4%

0% 2019 Easier than today

2020 Same level as today

20

2021 More difďŹ cult

Total: 526


Businesses

22


BUSINESSES | RELOCATION | LOCATION | COSTS OF PREMISES | RENT VS. OWN

30%

Many plan to move Among businesses operating from rental premises, 37% expect their rent to increase, whereas 63% do not predict increased rental expenses. Among businesses with industrial premises, 43% – i.e. slightly more – believe that their rent will increase, while the share is slightly lower among those renting office or shop premises. Three in ten are planning to relocate. 9% expect to pack their boxes this year, while a further 21% expect to get the removals people in within a couple of years. This is largely unchanged from 2020.

of the businesses are planning to relocate within the next couple of years.

The most frequently cited reason for wanting to move is a lack of space, which is mentioned by 44% of the businesses that are thinking about moving. In turn, only 11% have too much space. Just over 21% would like to find less expensive premises, but just as many would like to find something more exclusive – and thus hardly cheaper. Moreover, just over one in three believes that their existing premises do not have “the right profile”. Last year, only 7% were looking for something more exclusive, and 17% felt that their premises did not have the right profile. The picture that emerges is thus that some businesses have more exacting standards.

43% of industrial tenants expect that their rent to increase in 2021.

This is underscored by their answers to the question of what they look for when choosing premises. 56% point out that the premises must have the right profile, while one in three attaches great importance to the flexibility of the premises. Other important aspects are price/rent (58%) and transport time, which is mentioned by half of the respondents.

44% of businesses wanting to move state that the reason is lack of space.

23


BUSINESSES | RELOCATION | LOCATION | COSTS OF PREMISES | OWN VS. RENT

Businesses relocate due to lack of space 30% of the businesses surveyed would like to move in the coming years, which is on a par with last year’s survey. Like last year, the primary reason for wanting to find new premises is lack of space. Businesses have started to focus more on exclusivity and the match between their premises and their corporate profile. 11% of the businesses that plan to relocate cite too much space as their reason for wanting to move. This is five percentage points higher than last year, which is expected to increase in the coming years. The survey also shows that 4% of businesses want to relocate due to energy costs/environmental conditions.

Do you plan to relocate?

9%

Yes, in 2021

70%

21%

Yes, within the next couple of years

No

Total: 524

24


BUSINESSES | RELOCATION | LOCATION | COSTS OF PREMISES | OWN VS. RENT

Why do you want to move? (You are welcome to choose more than one)

44% 35% 22%

tn

22% in

ge

r

We need more space

Our current location does not have the right profile for the business

We want to find something cheaper

We want to find something more exclusive

17%

Due to contractual issue

14%

Due to traffic conditions

11%

We have too much space

4%

Due to energy costs/environmental aspects

Total: 156

25


BUSINESSES | RELOCATION | LOCATION | COSTS OF PREMISES| OWN VS. RENT

Businesses want to stay in their area 30% of those surveyed are planning to move within the next couple of years. However, location is not the reason for most businesses’ desire to move. The general picture is that businesses would like to stay in their current area. Top of the list of the most popular areas are Copenhagen and Frederiksberg, to which 28% of the businesses want to move.

89%

of the businesses located in Copenhagen or on Frederiksberg wanting to move, would like to stay in the same area.

12%

of businesses with more than 500 employees are considering relocating within the next couple of years.

67% of the businesses that are considering relocating within the next couple of years are within the office segment.

26


BUSINESSES | RELOCATION | LOCATION | COSTS OF PREMISES| OWN VS. RENT

Where is your firm located today? + Where do you want to move? (You are welcome to choose more than one?

2020

2021

Development

Copenhagen/Frederiksberg

17%

28%

Copenhagen Suburbs

14%

19%

North Zealand

9%

11%

West/South Zealand

8%

6%

Funen

4%

1%

Odense city

4%

6%

West/South Jutland

9%

5%

Central Jutland

15%

17%

Aarhus city

11%

15%

North Jutland

5%

4%

Aalborg city

4%

3%

Abroad

2%

4%

27

Total: 156


BUSINESSES | RELOCATION | LOCATION | COSTS OF PREMISES | OWN VS. RENT

Fewer businesses want to spend more money on their business premises than in the previous year The businesses want to keep their expenses for business premises on a par with last year. This is a natural consequence of the coronavirus crisis and the uncertain labour market. This is a marked difference from last year, when half the businesses were ready to spend more money on their premises. Only 27% of the businesses that are renting are prepared to increase their expenses for business premises. By comparison, the figure was 50% last year.

Do you expect to spend more/less money on commercial premises in the future?

26%

60%

More money

14%

Unchanged

Less money

Total: 509

37% of the businesses expect increasing rent levels, which is on a par with last year. The fewest expect that rent levels for office and retail premises to increase, while 43% expect rent levels for industrial premises to increase.

Do you expect the rent you pay for your premises to increase in 2021?

Industry

43%

57%

Retail

38%

62%

OfďŹ ce

36%

64%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Yes 28

60% No

70%

80%

90%

100%


BUSINESSES | RELOCATION | LOCATION | COSTS OF PREMISES | OWN VS. RENT

Do you as an owner(s) expect to spend more/less money on commercial premises in future?

25%

• More money

58%

• Unchanged

17%

• Less money

Total: 232

Do you as a tenant(s) expect to spend more/less money on commercial premises in future?

27%

• More money

61%

• Unchanged

12%

• Less money

Total: 277

29


BUSINESSES | RELOCATION | LOCATION | COSTS OF PREMISES | OWN VS. RENT

Big difference between whether businesses want to own or rent The current market situation is clearly reflected in the proportion of business types that want to own rather than rent. The industry segment is generally characterised by a high degree of property specialisation, making the businesses more inclined to own than to rent. In the retail segment, a trend is also seen towards more businesses wanting to rent, however, it is not as marked as for the industry segment. Compared with last year, the share wanting to sell decreased markedly. Where last year 62% wanted to sell, the figure for 2021 is only 44%.

Would you as an owner(s) consider selling your premises and rent premises instead?

56% • No

44% • Yes Total: 41

Would you as a tenant(s) consider selling your premises and rent premises instead?

42% 58% • No

• Yes Total: 115

31


BUSINESSES | RELOCATION | LOCATION | COSTS OF PREMISES | OWN VS. RENT

Would you as tenant(s) consider buying instead of renting?

Stock/production/industry

92%

8%

Retail/shop/service

69%

31%

OfďŹ ce/education/clinic

46%

54%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40% Yes

32

50%

60% No

70%

80%

90%

100%


Sustainability

33


OUTLOOK FOR 2021

Sustainability – large businesses show the way This year we have, for the first time, asked investors about the importance of sustainability certificates. A total of 62% attach importance to properties having a green stamp from, for example, Green Building Council Denmark (DK-GBC), and 8% attach great importance to this. For just over half of the respondents, sustainability has some or little bearing on their investment decisions. One in three does not think a green stamp will be of importance in 2021, and 6% don’t know. The office segment is the area in which sustainability weighs the heaviest, as 75% find that it is of importance to their investment choices. 10% of investors even find that it is of great importance to their choice of office properties. The survey shows that sustainability certifications have the least importance when it comes to residential rental properties. When we cross the attitude towards sustainability certifications with the size of the business in which the investors work, we can see that the larger the business, the greater the focus on sustainability. There is consequently a tendency toward large businesses taking the lead and showing the way in relation to sustainability. 15% of businesses state that energy costs and environmental issues are of importance to their choice of premises. Of the businesses that have plans to relocate within the coming years, 4% state that energy costs are of importance to their choice, whereas 10% of the large businesses (+25 employees) state that it is of importance.

To what extent are sustainability certifications of importance to your choice of property investments?

40%

35%

35% 30%

29%

28%

To some extend

Low regard

25% 20% 15% 10%

8%

5% 0% High regard

34

None


OUTLOOK FOR 2021

Sustainability on the agenda

65% state that 75% sustainability is

of importance to their investment choice.

!

15% of businesses

of investors investing in office properties state that sustainability is of importance.

cite sustainability as a criterion in their choice of premises.

In order to obtain DGNB certification, a building or urban area must be evaluated based on a number of criteria within the five main DGNB criteria: environmental quality, economic quality, sociocultural and functional quality, technical quality and process quality. Based on this evaluation, the project is awarded silver, gold or platinum certification.

Development in the number of DGNB certifications in Denmark 2012 to 2020 + registrations Certifications Pre-certifications 64

Registration certifications Registration pre-certifications

114 50

58 34

4 5 2012

4 8 2013

3 4 2014

6 6 2015

24

18

19 10

7 13

9 15

15

19

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Source: Green Building Council Denmark. Updated January 2020. The number of certifications in 2020 are based on registrations.

35

18

1

7

regis- regis- regis- registrations trations trations trations 2022 2023 2024 2021


36


OUTLOOK FOR 2021

Background for the survey The respondents’ occupation ranges right from professional investment companies, law firms and bank branches to logistics businesses, retail shops etc. An investor is defined based on the business in question making investments in properties that are not for its own use and that are made for the purpose of generating a return. In the section on expected needs for premises in the coming year, respondents comprise businesses that own their buildings and tenants in business premises.

EDC Erhverv’s Expectations Survey 2021 maps the expectations of more than 1,200 investors and businesses for the commercial property market in 2021. We have conducted the survey since 2016, and we therefore compare the conclusions with the results of recent years when relevant. The responses have been gathered through EDC Erhverv’s database with more than 17,500 selected Danish businesses and investors, and through campaigns on social media targeted at businessmen at CEO level and persons who are interested in or have a professional profile in property investment. Geographically, 52% of respondents are based west of the Great Belt and 48% east of the Great Belt.

The survey solely reflects the respondents’ market expectations and not necessarily EDC Erhverv’s position. EDC Erhverv’s views on the survey and the market are presented continuously.

37


Do you want to stay updated with the commercial property market? See the latest news here www.poulerikbech.dk/en/about/news/

København

+45 5858 8600

Herlev

+45 5858 8601

Hillerød

+45 5858 8602

Roskilde

+45 5858 8603

Køge

+45 5858 8604

Næstved

+45 5858 8605

Slagelse

+45 5858 8606

Odense

+45 5858 8607

Kolding

+45 5858 8608

Aabenraa

+45 5858 8609

Sønderborg

+45 5858 8610

Esbjerg

+45 5858 8611

Vejle

+45 5858 8612

Herning

+45 5858 8643

Aarhus

+45 5858 8613

Viborg

+45 5858 8614

Aalborg

+45 5858 8615

Research

+45 5858 8564

Capital Markets +45 5858 8572 International

+45 5858 8563

38

Profile for EDC Poul Erik Bech

Outlook for 2021