Research Erhverv Poul Erik Bech

Market UPDATE O C T O B E R

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edc Market update O C T O B E R

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Table of contents: Definitions

Office

Retail

Industrial and logistics 11 Residential rental properties

13 Jorgen Jorgensen

Contact us: COPENHAGEN Jorgen Jorgensen Senior Director, HD, MRICS Tel: +45 33 30 10 25 Mail: jjo@edc.dk Helle Nielsen Ziersen Head of International Division Partner, KAM, MRICS Tel: +45 33 30 10 17 Mail: hni@edc.dk Aarhus Soren Leth Pedersen Partner, Director, MSc.(f), Chartered surveyor, Valuer Tel: +45 58 58 78 76 Mail: slp@edc.dk Aalborg Frank Jensen Partner, Director, CBA Tel: +45 96 31 49 00 Mail: frje@edc.dk Kolding Borge S Mensel Director, Chartered surveyor, MDE Tel: +45 76 33 80 17 Mail: bsm@edc.dk

In the recent editions of our publication EDC ErhvervsNyt (EDC Commercial Property News) we have included a section dedicated to estimates and forecasts for rents, yields and vacancy rates for various types of commercial properties in different locations in Denmark. This fairly new initiative is here to stay, and with our newly established Research department more resources will be dedicated to providing our clients with useful data and in depth analysis of the commercial property markets. This publication, EDC MARKET UPDATE, is the first edition in a future series of Research reports. EDC Market Update will be published quarterly and you can sign up to receive future publications at www.poulerikbech.dk/ research/english. EDC MARKET UPDATE contains detailed information on yields, rents, vacancy rates and forecasts for price developments for the following types of commercial property: Office, retail, industrial & logistics and residential rental properties. In an upcoming report EDC MARKET INSIGHT we will go into greater depth with analyses of the commercial property market. We aim to enhance the transparency of the Danish commercial real estate market and provide valuable insight for investors, occupiers and other players in the market. In addition to current market rent levels, yields, vacancy rates and forecasts for several property types and several locations, our upcoming reports will put greater emphasis on the current supply and demand situation, the latest investment and leasing activity, duration of letting times, current trading conditions and the latest market trends. These new reports should serve as valuable input for any player in the market looking to buy, sell or rent commercial property. We expect our clients and business partners will benefit from these new initiatives. Best regards

Jorgen Jorgensen, Senior Director

EDC Research - October 2012 - page 2

edc Market update O C T O B E R

2 0 1 2

Definitions and remarks: Remarks for our estimates: The valuation of a property depends on various property specific attributes, including, but not limited to, the lease conditions, the tenant’s credit rating and the property’s condition. When valuing a property, the estimates should not be relied upon without seeking qualified, professional advice. However, the estimates can serve as useful input in the valuation process. Any reproduction of data in this report should be credited to EDC Erhverv Poul Erik Bech. Whilst data and estimates have been rigorously checked EDC Erhverv Poul Erik Bech can take no responsibility for any inaccuracy within this report. Estimates and forecasts of rents and yields are as of 1 October 2012. Estimates are subject to change.

YIELDS, MARKET RENTS AND FORECASTS: Location: Yield and market rent estimates covers properties with prime, secondary and tertiary location. Facility Class: Location aside, our estimates are based upon a segmentation of property facility classes; facility class A, B and C, where class A is the best facility class. Various variables for each property type have been taken into consideration with regards to determine the facility classes, such as: size, floor plan structure, year of construction, lifts, climate control, cabling infrastructure, staff facilities, customer facilities, parking facilities, building energy rating, ceiling height, general accessibility, general condition of the property, etc. A property with prime location and class A facilities has the best possible location in an area, the highest standard when it comes to facilities, is modern and ready to move into. This type of property will typically be traded at the lowest yield for the area, have the highest market rent and have a short re-letting process. Naturally, yield and market rent estimates are subject to certain deviations depending on the exact location and property specific facilities. Yield definition: All yields are net initial yields and is defined as the annualised rent generated by the property, after the deduction of estimated annual irrecoverable property outgoings, expressed as a percentage of the property valuation (property valuation is adjusted for the value of rental deposits and prepaid rent). For comparison purposes it is assumed that all properties are fully let at market-conform conditions. Market rent estimates: All rents are headline rents, in other words the contracted gross rent receivable which becomes payable after any tenant incentives have expired. Market rent estimates are expressed in € / sq m / year. Figures have been rounded when converting from DKK (Danish Kroner) to €. It is assumed that all properties are let at market-conform conditions. Forecasts: All forecasts reflect our expectations for the development over the next 3 to 6 months. Residential rental properties: In this report estimates are included for “New and modernised residential rental properties” and “Older residential rental properties”. In Denmark residential rental levels cannot be determined freely and is subject to far-reaching rent control. The major difference between the before mentioned types of residential rental property is that “Older residential rental properties” are regulated by the provisions in the Danish Rent Act (Lejeloven) and the Housing Regulation Act (Boligreguleringsloven) concerning cost driven rental levels.

Forecasts Increasing Stable Decreasing

DATA FOR VACANT COMMERCIAL SPACE ( VACANCY RATE) Source: Oline ED-Statistikken as of 1July 2012. For more info we refer to www.oline.dk/statistik. The forecasts of the vacancy rates have been made by EDC Erhverv Poul Erik Bech and reflect our expectations for the development the next 3 to 6 months.

EDC Research - October 2012 - page 3

edc Market update

Regions of Denmark and selected market areas

Capital Region of Denmark Region Zealand Aalborg

Southern Denmark Region Central Jutland Region North Jutland Region

Aarhus

Vejle

Kolding

Triangle Area

Fredericia

Copenhagen

EDC Research - October 2012 - page 4

edc Market update O ffice

Oc T O BER

2012

Office

Yield in %, yearly market rent in â‚Ź / sq m and forecast for the next 3-6 months Facility class A Copenhagen

Facility class B

Facility class C

Facility class A

Facility class B

Facility class C

Yearly market rent in â‚Ź / sq m

Yield in %

Prime

5,00

5,50

6,00

230

Secondary

5,25

5,75

6,25

175

Tertiary

6,25

6,75

7,25

145

175

150

135

115

Aarhus Prime

5,50

5,75

6,25

190

165

135

Secondary

6,00

6,50

7,25

155

130

110

Tertiary

6,50

7,00

8,00

130

105

Aalborg Prime

6,25

6,75

7,25

135

125

105

Secondary

6,50

7,00

7,50

125

110

Tertiary

7,00

7,50

8,00

110

Triangle area Prime

6,50

6,75

7,00

150

105

Secondary

6,75

7,25

7,50

125

Tertiary

8,00

9,00

10,00

Source: EDC Erhverv Poul Erik Bech. Data as of 1 October 2012. Forecasts: All forecasts reflect our expectations for the development over the next 3 to 6 months.

Vacant office space in sq m, in % of building stock and forecast for the next 3-6 months Vacancy sq m Central Copenhagen

As % of building stock

Change % QoQ

Change % YoY

543.900

9,5%

0,5%

0,9%

East Jutland (including Aarhus)

409.400

13,7%

0,2%

2,7%

North Jutland Region (including Aalborg)

125.700

6,6%

1,0%

1,2%

South Jutland (including the Triangle Area)

210.000

9,2%

0,5%

2,0%

Forecast

Source: Oline ED-Statistikken (Oline ED-Statistic), data as of 1 July 2012. Changes quarter on quarter and year on year. Forecasts: All forecasts reflect our expectations for the development over the next 3 to 6 months.

EDC Research - October 2012 - page 5

edc Market update O ffice

Oc T O BER

2012

Vacant office space in sq m, in % of building stock and forecast for the next 3-6 months 16% 409.400 sq m

14% 12% 543.900 sq m

10%

210.000 sq m

8% 125.700 sq m 6% 4% 2% 0%

Central CentralCopenhagen Copenhagen

East Jutland East Jutland (including Aarhus)

North Region SouthJutland Jutland RegionJutland North Jutland South (including Aalborg) (including the Triangle Area)

Source: Vacancy data from Oline ED-Statistikken (Oline ED-Statistic). Data as of 1 july 2012. Source, forecasts: EDC Erhverv Poul Erik Bech. All forecasts reflect our expectations for the development over the next 3 to 6 months.

Key vacancy figures from Oline ED-Statistikken (Oline ED-Statistic) As % of building stock

Change in % QoQ

Central Copenhagen

Office

5.725.900

543.900

26.300

9,5%

0,5%

Copenhagen area

3.631.000

438.400

18.000

12,1%

0,5%

North Zealand

1.588.300

150.700

3.700

9,5%

0,2%

Bornholm Capital Region of Denmark East Zealand

Building stock

Vacancy sq m

Change sq m QoQ

113.900

1.900

-300

1,4%

-0,3%

11.059.100

1.134.800

47.700

10,3%

0,5%

673.000

36.200

-7.900

5,1%

-1,1%

West- and South Zealand

1.535.900

86.600

11.400

5,6%

0,7%

Region Zealand

2.209.000

122.800

3.400

5,6%

0,2%

Funen

1.469.600

116.100

-1.100

7,9%

-0,1%

South Jutland

2.287.200

210.000

10.700

9,2%

0,5%

Southern Denmark Region

3.756.800

326.200

9.600

8,7%

0,3%

East Jutland

2.982.600

409.400

7.600

13,7%

0,2%

West Jutland

1.363.200

86.500

-12.700

6,3%

-1,0%

Central Jutland Region

4.345.800

495.900

-5.100

11,4%

-0,1%

North Jutland

1.902.900

125.700

18.200

6,6%

1,0%

North Jutland Region

1.902.900

125.700

18.200

6,6%

1,0%

23.273.500

2.205.300

73.800

9,5%

0,4%

Denmark, total

Source: Oline ED-Statistikken (Oline ED-Statistic), data as of 1 July 2012. "% of building stock" is the proportion of empty space in sq m relative to the total building stock.

EDC Research - October 2012 - page 6

edc Market update O ffice

Oc T O BER

2012

201

Copenhagen, location segmentation for offices 18

E47

3 20

Hellerup Gentofte

Gladsaxe

Tuborg Harbour Soborg

Morkhoj

16 O4

Bispebjerg Nordhavn

Husum Utterslev

Outer Osterbro O2

Norrebro

Amerika Plads

Central Osterbro

Vanlose

Rodovre

CPH City

Frederiksberg 156 O2

Valby

Vesterbro

Kalvebod Brygge

Brondbyoster E47

Havnefront South

Sundbyvester

151 Hvidovre

Orestad North

Vigerslev

Sydhavn

Kastrup

Avedore

Orestad City

E20

Orestad South

E20

Taarnby

CPH airport

1 km

Prime locations

Secondary locations

Tertiary locations

Yield in % and forecast for the next 3-6 months Location

Facility class A

Facility class B

Facility class C

Prime

5,00

5,50

6,00

Secondary

5,25

5,75

6,25

Tertiary

6,25

6,75

7,25

Yearly market rent in € / sq m and forecast for the next 3-6 months Location

Facility class A

Facility class B

Facility class C

Prime

230

175

150

Secondary

175

135

115

Tertiary

145

115

•

Trains

•

Metro

The map for office properties in Copenhagen illustrates a location segmentation in prime, secondary and tertiary locations, where the prime area typically has the best locations for office property in Copenhagen. The location segmentation has been made by EDC Erhverv Poul Erik Bech. The location segmentation can change over time. The segmentation is our perception of general location segmentation and should not be perceived as a definitive segmentation of the best, good and below average locations.

EDC Research - October 2012 - page 7

Lisbjerg 15

Kvottrup

Sabro

edc Market update

19 20

Faarup E45

O ffice

Kasted

Geding

Oc T O BER

2012

Vejby

Skejby

Aarhus, location segmentation for offices 47 Brendstrup

Risskov

180

Yderup

Tilst

True

Lyngby Gellerup

Hasle

O1 Brabrand

195

Aabyhoj

Aarslev Aaby

Aarhus

Aarslev Mark

Marselisborg

501

Stavtrup

Ormslev Stationsby Ormslev

abo

170 2

Lemming Viby

1 km

Holme Prime locations

Secondary locations

Tertiary locations

Hasselager

Kolt Bering

Bjostrup

451

•

Trains

•

Metro

Slet

Kattrup

Yield in % and forecast for the next 3-6 months Location

Horning

Jegstrup

Facility class A

Facility class B

Prime

5,50

5,75

Secondary

6,00

6,50

Tertiary

6,50 Overballe-

7,00

Facility class C 6,25 Tranbjerg 7,25 8,00

Osterby

Yearly market rent in € / sq m and forecast for the next 3-6 months Location

Facility class A

Facility class B

Facility class C

Prime

190

165

135

Secondary

155

130

110

Tertiary

130

105

The map for office properties in Aarhus Skaade illustrates a location segmentation in prime, secondary and tertiary locations, where the prime area typically hasStorhoj the best locations for office property in Aarhus. The location segmentation has been made by EDC Erhverv HorretPoul Erik Bech. The location segmentation can change over time. The segmentation is our perception of a general location segmentation and should not be perceived as a definitive segmentation of the best, good and below average locations.

EDC Research - October 2012 - page 8

edc Market update R etail

O c T O B E R

2 0 1 2

Retail

Yield in %, yearly market rent in â‚Ź / sq m and forecast for the next 3-6 months Facility class A Copenhagen

Facility class B

Facility class C

Facility class A

Facility class B

Facility class C

Yearly market rent in â‚Ź / sq m

Yield in %

Prime

5,00

5,25

5,50

2.280

1.880

1.610

Secondary

5,50

5,75

6,25

470

340

270

Tertiary

6,00

6,50

7,00

150

125

105

Aarhus Prime

5,00

5,25

5,50

740

605

470

Secondary

5,25

5,50

6,00

540

470

340

Tertiary

6,00

6,50

7,00

270

215

165

Aalborg Prime

5,25

5,75

6,25

570

470

340

Secondary

6,25

6,50

7,00

205

170

135

Tertiary

6,75

7,25

7,50

125

110

Triangle area Prime

5,75

6,00

6,25

420

325

190

Secondary

6,50

6,75

7,00

230

150

125

Tertiary

7,25

7,75

8,25

110

Source: EDC Erhverv Poul Erik Bech. Data as of 1 October 2012. Forecasts: All forecasts reflect our expectations for the development over the next 3 to 6 months.

Vacant retail space in sq m, in % of building stock and forecast for the next 3-6 months Vacancy sq m Central Copenhagen

43.500

As % of building stock

Change % QoQ

Change % YoY

3,3%

0,4%

1,0%

East Jutland (including Aarhus)

130.100

6,6%

0,2%

0,5%

North Jutland Region (including Aalborg)

103.800

7,8%

-0,6%

0,9%

South Jutland (including the Triangle Area)

156.600

9,4%

0,3%

2,5%

Forecast

EDC Research - October 2012 - page 9

edc Market update R etail

O c T O B E R

2 0 1 2

Vacant retail space in sq m, in % of building stock and forecast for the next 3-6 months 10%

156.600 sq m

9% 103.800 sq m

8% 7%

130.100 sq m

6% 5% 4%

43.500 sq m

3% 2% 1% 0%

Central CentralCopenhagen Copenhagen

East East Jutland Jutland (including Aarhus)

North Region SouthJutland Jutland RegionJutland North Jutland South (including Aalborg) (including the Triangle Area)

Key vacancy figures from Oline ED-Statistikken (Oline ED-Statistic) Retail Central Copenhagen Copenhagen area North Zealand Bornholm Capital Region of Denmark East Zealand

Building stock

As % of building stock

Change in % QoQ

1.298.700

Vacancy sq m 43.500

Change sq m QoQ 6.000

3,3%

0,4%

865.900

40.000

7.900

4,6%

0,9%

1.083.800

48.500

4.300

4,5%

0,4%

92.100

1.000

1,1%

0,0%

3.340.400

132.900

18.100

4,0%

0,6%

424.500

29.400

-1.200

6,9%

-0,3%

West- and South Zealand

1.287.200

83.500

13.500

6,5%

1,1%

Region Zealand

1.711.700

112.900

12.300

6,6%

0,7%

Funen

1.256.700

61.300

-8.600

4,9%

-0,7%

South Jutland

1.661.400

156.600

5.300

9,4%

0,3%

Southern Denmark Region

2.918.200

217.900

-3.300

7,5%

-0,1%

East Jutland

1.962.600

130.100

5.100

6,6%

0,2%

West Jutland

1.004.700

75.900

5.700

7,6%

0,6%

Central Jutland Region

2.967.300

206.000

10.800

6,9%

0,3%

North Jutland

1.330.800

103.800

-8.000

7,8%

-0,6%

North Jutland Region

1.330.800

103.800

-8.000

7,8%

-0,6%

12.268.400

773.500

30.000

6,3%

0,2%

Denmark, total

Source: Oline ED-Statistikken (Oline ED-Statistic), data as of 1 July 2012. "% of building stock" is the proportion of empty space in sq m relative to the total building stock.

EDC Research - October 2012 - page 10

edc Market update I ndustrial & L ogistics O c TO B E R 2012

Industrial & Logistics

Yield in %, yearly market rent in â‚Ź / sq m and forecast for the next 3-6 months Facility class A Copenhagen

Facility class B

Facility class C

Facility class A

Facility class B

Facility class C

Yearly market rent in â‚Ź / sq m

Yield in %

Prime

7,00

7,50

7,75

Secondary

7,50

8,00

8,25

Tertiary

7,75

8,25

8,75

Prime

7,50

8,25

9,00

Secondary

8,00

8,50

9,50

Aarhus

Aalborg Prime

7,50

7,75

8,75

Secondary

8,00

8,50

9,50

Prime

7,00

7,50

7,75

Secondary

7,25

7,75

8,25

Triangle area

Source: EDC Erhverv Poul Erik Bech. Data as of 1 October 2012. Forecasts: All forecasts reflect our expectations for the development over the next 3 to 6 months.

Vacant industrial & logistics space in sq m, in % of building stock and forecast for the next 3-6 months As % of building stock

Change % QoQ

Change % YoY

Capital Region of Denmark

Vacancy sq m 756.700

4,2%

0,4%

East Jutland (including Aarhus)

859.500

5,5%

-0,4%

-1,5%

North Jutland Region (including Aalborg)

369.400

2,8%

0,0%

0,6%

South Jutland (including the Triangle Area)

694.300

3,7%

0,2%

Forecast

EDC Research - October 2012 - page 11

edc Market update I ndustrial & L ogistics O c TO B E R 2012

Vacant industrial & logistics space in sq m, in % of building stock and forecast for the next 3-6 months 6%

859.500 sq m

5% 756.700 sq m 4%

694.300 sq m

369.400 sq m

Capital Region Region of Capital of Denmark Denmark

East Jutland East Jutland (including Aarhus)

RegionJutland North Jutland South North Region SouthJutland Jutland (including Aalborg) (including the Triangle Area)

Key vacancy figures from Oline ED-Statistikken (Oline ED-Statistic) As % of building stock

Change in % QoQ

Central Copenhagen

Industrial & logistics

5.404.400

62.800

-7.500

1,2%

-0,1%

Copenhagen area

7.582.100

462.900

75.600

6,1%

1,0%

North Zealand

4.171.900

230.900

10.900

5,5%

0,2%

Bornholm Capital Region of Denmark East Zealand West- and South Zealand Region Zealand Funen

Building stock

Vacancy sq m

Change sq m QoQ

826.000

0,0%

17.984.500

756.700

79.200

4,2%

0,4%

3.316.500

169.400

-12.200

5,1%

-0,4%

9.728.900

329.700

4.900

3,4%

0,1%

13.045.400

499.200

-7.300

3,8%

-0,1%

9.090.700

514.000

-50.300

5,7%

-0,5%

South Jutland

18.941.400

694.300

36.600

3,7%

0,2%

Southern Denmark Region

28.032.000

1.208.400

-13.600

4,3%

-0,1%

East Jutland

15.744.800

859.500

-70.700

5,5%

-0,4%

West Jutland

12.580.100

570.900

-81.800

4,5%

-0,7%

Central Jutland Region

28.324.900

1.430.400

-152.600

5,1%

-0,5%

North Jutland

13.342.400

369.400

-3.000

2,8%

0,0%

North Jutland Region

13.342.400

369.400

-3.000

2,8%

0,0%

100.729.100

4.264.000

-97.400

4,2%

-0,1%

Denmark, total

Source: Oline ED-Statistikken (Oline ED-Statistic), data as of 1 July 2012. "% of building stock" is the proportion of empty space in sq m relative to the total building stock.

EDC Research - October 2012 - page 12

edc Market update residential rental properties OcTOBER 2012

Older residential rental properties

Newer and modernised residential rental properties

Yield in %, yearly market rent in € / sq m and forecast for the next 3-6 months Older residential rental properties Facility class A Copenhagen

Facility class B

Facility class C

Newer and modernised residential rental properties Facility class A

Yield in %

Facility class B

Facility class A

Facility class B

Yield in %

Yearly market rent in € / sq m

Prime

3,50

3,75

4,25

5,00

190

165

Secondary

4,00

4,50

5,00

5,25

165

150

Tertiary

4,75

5,50

6,00

5,50

155

150

Prime

3,00

4,75

190

165

Secondary

3,50

5,00

165

135

Tertiary

4,50

5,25

150

125

Prime

4,50

5,00

5,50

5,00

5,25

135

125

Secondary

5,25

5,50

5,75

5,50

5,75

125

110

Tertiary

6,00

6,25

6,50

5,75

6,25

115

110

Prime

6,25

6,50

7,25

6,00

6,75

135

125

Secondary

7,00

7,25

8,00

6,75

7,00

110

Tertiary

7,50

7,75

8,25

Aarhus

Aalborg

Triangle area

Note: The major difference between “New and modernised residential rental properties” and “Older residential rental properties” is that “Older residential rental properties” are regulated by the provisions in the Danish Rent Act (Lejeloven) and the Housing Regulation Act (Boligreguleringsloven) concerning cost driven rental levels.

EDC Research - October 2012 - page 13

•

The leading real estate agency in Denmark in the areas of selling, leasing, valuation and advisory

•

Founded in 1978, operating nationwide across 14 commercial property offices, more than 35 residential property offices, and finally 7 residential property offices in France and Sweden.

•

Owner of the property management company LEA Ejendomspartner (LEA Property Partner)

•

More than 350 employees

Our greatest strength is our nationwide presence and local knowledge with more than 65 commercial real estate specialists servicing our clients. We are Chartered surveyors, valuers and MRICS. We especially deal with the following types of property: •

Investment properties, properties for lease and owner-user properties

•

Offices, high street retail, industrial & logistics and mixed-use properties

•

Residential rental properties

•

Land and development projects

•

Hotels, restaurants and leisure sector

We offer our clients a wide range of services: •

Execution of investment transactions of single assets, portfolios and on a company level

•

Leasing agency

•

Valuations (RICS)

•

Sale and Lease Back

•

Due diligence

•

Project development consultancy

Tenant and landlord representation

•

EDC Location Search

Property and facilities management

•

EDC PropertySWAP®

•

Research services

Capital structure advisory

•

Bespoke consultancy and market study services

• •

Office locations: Copenhagen 33 30 10 00 • e-mail 114@edc.dk

Herlev 44 57 03 37 • e-mail 278@edc.dk

Hillerod Roskilde 48 26 99 10 • e-mail 342@edc.dk 46 33 33 33 • e-mail 403@edc.dk

Naestved 55 78 66 03 • e-mail 473@edc.dk

Odense Kolding 66 12 61 27 • e-mail 512@edc.dk 76 33 80 10 • e-mail 603@edc.dk

Koge 55 35 55 53 • e-mail 469@edc.dk

Aabenraa Sonderborg Esbjerg 73 33 13 00 • e-mail 620@edc.dk 58 58 80 20 • e-mail 641@edc.dk 76 10 48 00 • e-mail 670@edc.dk Aarhus Aalborg 87 30 99 30 • e-mail 802@edc.dk 96 31 49 00 • e-mail 912@edc.dk

Chartered surveyors & international property consultants

Read more: www.poulerikbech.dk/commercial

Vejle 75 83 13 11 • e-mail 710@edc.dk

EDC Poul Erik Bech

Published on Oct 1, 2012

Market Update UK Q3 2012

Published on Oct 1, 2012

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