Energy Supply Market Update June 20, 2013
Presenters: Jonathan Lee, Senior Energy Procurement ďź† Advanced Analytics Manager, and Denny Pearson, Senior Director, Supply Solutions with Ecova
ENERGY MARKET INTELLIGENCE Here is What We are Going to Tell You: •
Natural gas and electricity prices are becoming more correlated due to the increasing reliance on gas-fired generation. •
Wholesale gas and electric prices have risen significantly off 10-year lows experienced in 2012. Expect to see an impact to new supply contracts and regulated rates when compared to 2012.
Many Bulls & Neutrals, Few Bears Among the Drivers. •
Economy: Bullish market sentiment creep – Don’t expect rational market behavior. However, there are still underlying concerns.
Natural Gas Production, Demand, Storage: Production at an all-time high. Demand continues to grow. Storage around 5-year average, but filling fast with some power burn shifting back to coal due to recent uptick in prices.
Weather and Water Forecast: Demand-driven market and weather will continue to be one of the major drivers. Below-average reservoirs in the West, resulting in lower hydro output.
Some Detail on Electric Prices:
NERC Summer Electric Capacity Assessment: North America has enough power to meet
Technical charts show strong uptrend across all major regions and forward indices when compared to 2012. summer demand. However, Texas and the Western U.S. may have some problems. Expect volatility.
Two LNG export terminals approved, operational in 2016-2017 timeframe. San Onofre nuclear power plant permanently retired. Wave of coal plant retirements hits in 2015.
MARKET FUNDAMENTALS â€“ FEW BEARS 13 June 2013
Near Term Next 60 Days Storage
Production Demand Electric Power Sector Weather Tropical Storms LNG Economy
Short Term 2 to 6 Months
Medium Term 6 to 12 Months
Long Term 1 to 5 Years
ENERGY PRICES ARE UP ACROSS THE BOARD •
After several years flat to declining prices owing to a nearly “Perfect Storm” of global recession, increases in building efficiency investment AND simultaneous dramatic increases in shale gas production . . .
Retail electric rates are on the rise again • •
EIA outlook is for national average increases of 2-4% ($.003 to .004/kWh) from 2012 to 2013 and again to 2014. But beyond the gross average, some sites may see as much as $.01 to $.015/kWh 2012 to 2013 annual impact where capacity prices, grid congestion, high use of natural gas for electric generation, deregulated contracts, or increasingly prevalent regulated fuel cost pass-throughs allow retail prices to move more abruptly.
Natural gas is up, too • •
EIA outlook is for overall national average increases of 5-10% from 2012 to 2013 and again to 2014. BUT, some sites will see as high as $1 to $1.25 per Dth where regulations or contracting allow for quick pass-through of commodity costs.
PRICES ARE RISING OFF OF 10 YEAR LOWS YR/YR 12 month retail contracts are generally back to 2011 levels CA electricity is higher due to San Onofre retirement. About $1 per Dth change from April 2012 in most deregulated natural gas supply offers
Analysis from 6/13/2013
NATURAL GAS STORAGE
Short-Term Trend: With more power burn coming from coal compared to last year, (natural gas power sector demand down about 3 Bcf/d vs last year) gas storage injections have been healthy the last several weeks.
GAS POWER BURNS – NORMALIZING A BIT
U.S. â€“ OIL WELLS OFFERING BETTER RETURNS Baker Hughes Active Oil/Gas Drilling Rigs
1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100
800 700 600
500 400 300 200
United States Oil/Natural Gas Drilling Rigs Year Ago
SUMMER TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK - MIXED NOAA/NWS, EIA; 16 May 2013 June - Aug
EIA projections are showing that Cooling Degree Days will be below last year, at average levels, however NOAA projections are showing the likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions in some regions
LONG RANGE DROUGHT OUTLOOK â€“ DRY WEST NOAA/CPC - 3 month outlooks; 11 June 2013
Pacific Northwest is continuing to have drier than normal conditions which are leading to some drought developments Oregon and Idaho areas. All of California is now considered in drought. Snowpack is listed at 15% of average. For reservoirs, currently the northern half shows slight below normal (~92%) and the southern half is still holding below normal (~83%) for reservoir levels against the YTD historic average.
HURRICANE OUTLOOK ~ AVG YR, LOWER IMPACT FROM GULF NHC/NOAA; 11 June 2013
Atlantic Hurricane Average Outlook Values June 01 - Nov 30 (1981-2010)
2013 Projected Values
Hurricane Induced Shut-In Production as a Percentage of Normal Monthly Production (1995-2011)
Mild (Named Tropical Storms)
18 (CSU); 13-20 (NOAA 70% confidence)
0.82% ± 1.15%
Moderate (Hurricane Categories 1-2)
9 (CSU); 7-11 (NOAA)
2.00% ± 2.98%
Intense (Hurricane Categories 3-5)
8 (1950); 7 in (2005)
4 (CSU); 3-6 (NOAA)
25.00% ± 35.64%
Historic Maximum Storm Count by Month 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
~2.5 Of 10 Bcf Gulf Production. = around 4% of US consumption
LNG â€“ FROM IMPORT TO EXPORT
LNG export capacity is expected to ramp up from 0 to 9.5 Bcf/Day export capacity from 2016 through 2020 from 5-10 terminals (~10% of US consumption).
2 terminals are conditionally approved with 4-5 year build schedules.
NORTHEAST PIPELINES â€“ ON THEIR WAY
2012 was the lowest year in a decade for overall US pipeline expansions, but the second highest year in the Northeast. The industry added 3.2 Bcf/d, representing two-thirds of total capacity additions. 2013 is another huge push as gas from Marcellus tries to find ways into hungry NY City, CT, Massachussets Markets.
NATURAL GAS FORWARD CURVE
(NYMEX) – 11 June 2013
$MMBtu (12-Month Strip) – 12 June 2013 – Short Term Trading Channel
ELECTRIC WHOLESALE PRICES Ecova 7 June 2013
Retail Impacts Texas
1 cent New York
2 cents 1 cent Middle Atlantic
.8 Cents Northeast
1.5 Cents California
ERCOT – 12-MONTH STRIP Ecova 7 June 2013
NY ISO ZONE J – 12-MONTH STRIP Ecova 7 June 2013
PJM – 12-MONTH STRIP Ecova 7 June 2013
NEPOOL – 12-MONTH STRIP Ecova 7 June 2013
CALIFORNIA NP15/SP15 – 12-MONTH STRIP Ecova 7 June 2013
NERC SUMMER ASSESSMENT 16 May 2013
North America has enough electricity for summer air conditioning season, but Texas and Western U.S. may have some problems.
Texas has seen continued growth in demand and only small increases in power resources. Anticipated reserve margin is at 12.88% for the summer, which is below NERC’s 13.75% target for this area.
California (mainly San Diego and L.A.) may see some operational challenges due to the continued shutdown of SONGS. Especially if there is a prolonged heat wave. –
Update: Fed indefinitely delayed a decision on restarting SONGS.
COAL PLANT RETIREMENTS Coal Retirements (MW)
Planned Coal Retirements (MW)
Cumulative Retirements (MW) 41,857
Total Capacity of U.S. Coal Plants Already Shut: 15,677 MW Total Capacity of U.S. Coal Plants Scheduled to be Shut: 34,306 MW
Upcoming Webinar On Budgeting
Regulated rate impacts of recent market movement
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Upcoming Ecova Webinars INSIDE ENERGY & SUSTAINABILITY
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Published on Jan 14, 2014
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