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California CRE Forecast (Continued from page 4) business models. Whereas tenants that signed a lease five years ago are seeing a 50% increase in their new rate, the search for space is leading to either more in less space or looking to the outlying markets such as Oakland, Walnut Creek and Sacramento. As interest rates are concerned, a minimal upward bump shouldn’t have a huge impact on the market, in that the institutional minded investors have built in higher rates into their exit strategies. Cap rates should stay low as long as money is available to lend at a reasonable rate. What I do see changing in 2016 is more creativity of existing real estate uses. With the transportation challenges,
re-purposing real estate can help meet some of the supply and demand challenges for multi-family or health care use. So back to my original question, what inning are we in? I’m hearing a similar feeling on the street that nothing too dramatic will occur in 2016. Top office rents may flatten a bit and some retailers may be closing their shops. But, demand for commercial real estate will continue with cap rate adjustments based on tenant creditworthiness and their modified business plans. All this is predicated on the greater macro world not imploding upon itself. That said, I’m going to say that we are in the top of the 9th inning…with possible extra innings. Happy New Year!
Ring is a commercial real estate veteran who has led many industry organizations, such as the Building Owners and Managers Association of San Francisco and the Institute for Real Estate Management-San Francisco in California. He can be reached at steven.ring@ajaxrea.com