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6/28/2011

‘Managing Expectations & Meeting the Challenge of Disruptive Technologies ’

Simon Moores - Zentelligence 28/06/2011

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6/28/2011

‘We live in an era of low predictability and change happens very fast’

Speed of Change The top 10 jobs in demand in 2010 didn’t exist in 2004 (Microsoft)

If you look at the history of the world until 1700 nothing much happened!

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Managing the Investment • MIPS • Moore’s Law – Engine of Prosperity – Silicon /Molecular / Miniaturization * 4/decade – 3D molecular circuits

• Eric Schmidt – ‘The computer hollows out’

• Rate of Paradigm Shift – Doubling every 10 years

• Price Performance Computing – Doubling every 12 months

Moore’s Law

Processor Cost Clock Speed

12 * 9

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Doubling the Paradigm Shift

3.2911373432622 * 9.134334789118 = One Billion calculations each second ??????? One calculation each nano second

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Reaching the singularity

Doubling the paradigm shift every decade

A century’s rate of progress in 25 years

Technology becomes commoditised

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How to Program a Quantum Computer • The end of Moore’s Law? • The post silicon-era – Molecular transistors – 1 Carbon atom • CPU input – Output – OS = Turing Machine • Individual Atoms/Superposition • Quantum Bits – Qubits • How do you Program? • MRI machine – Flip charges

Magnetic Field

Beryllium atoms

– Measure echo

• Try it with five atoms • Stability & Decoherence

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Racing Ahead

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What Would You Do With 80 Million Pixels?

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Liquid/tunable lenses GPS/Location-based Wireless RFID Tags Storage Battery NANO (Smart Dust) Graphene Translation

The Aftermath of the Old Economy The number of people who find their jobs at risk is expanding

21st Century R&D IT Automation

19th & 20th Century

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Plus Ca Change

Factories of the Future

We cannot succumb to the temptation to assume that the rising middle classes in China and India are going to solve the demand problem

Top 25% of population with highest IQ in China exceeds the total population of the USA

The Kalashnikov Principle

Exploiting The Asset • • • • • •

Competitive advantage The price of progress is high for early adopters Never knowingly oversold Focus on cost vs results No single point of failure No link between IT spend & business value

“There are valuable lessons to be learned from the things that don’t work.”

The Next Sea Change is Upon Us

Communications & Clouds

‘Services designed to scale to tens or hundreds of millions of users will dramatically change the nature and the costs of solutions deliverable to enterprises or small businesses.’ ‘This new wave will be very disruptive.’

Bill Gates October 30th 2005

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The Future of Open Source? Massively Scaleable in Minutes

Highly Virtualised Infrastructure Applications Separated from Infrastructure

Releases Business Assets Disruptive Shift to Online Services

WHAT’S IN A CLOUD?

Increased Levels of Automation & Efficiency Foundation of Web 2.0

Economies of Scale Pay as you go Computing

Movement of Computing into the ‘Network of Networks’ Resources On-demand Computing

Arrival of Commodity Computing

‘Cloud computing could

automate as many as one in seven IT jobs ’ Steve Ballmer – CEO - Microsoft

28/06/2011

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Boxing Clever

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“I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.�

Thank You! www.drmoores.com

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Profile for Simon Moores

Laws of the Future  

Simon Moores gives a lecture on Disruptive Technologies

Laws of the Future  

Simon Moores gives a lecture on Disruptive Technologies

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