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25 FEBRUARY 2013 Direct

Digest

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Currency Wars: Canadian Dollar

Free Market Evaluation Four questions, One Answer: Life insurance

Weakens for Sixth Day Canada’s dollar weakened recently against its U.S. counterpart for a sixth day in the longest losing streak since August 2011. Losing the value is often viewed as a gain for Canada. In regard to Japan’s monetary policy Carney remarked that Canadian economy would be particularly vulnerable to a widespread currency war. Canada is said to be one among the 4 losers in currency wars. Both Carney and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty signed a statement, which vows to set monetary policy to address domestic

Retirement Savings System Falling Short: BANKER The head of one of Canada’s largest banks is proposing a dramatic overhaul of the country’s pension regime, arguing that average Canadians need more certainty and simplicity from their savings than existing investment tools provide.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Chief Executive Officer Gerry McCaughey said Canada should reform the Canada Pension Plan to allow people to make voluntary contributions that are beyond what they already pay through their salaries. The move could give many Canadians something they do not have with RRSPs and other investment vehicles tied to the markets: a predictable payout when they retire. Much as Canadians understand exactly how long it will take to pay off

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their mortgage when they buy a house, average earners should have a pension system that helps them forecast how much money they will have at retirement, and allows them to accelerate their contributions, McCaughey said in a speech "It would give Canadians the choice to put aside more – a little at a time – with the confidence of clearly knowing what benefits it will bring," he said. “It would improve the future of Canadians who choose to opt in – through forced savings and no withdrawals – over the arc of 40 years." The country faces a looming pension crisis. Persistently low market returns and the erosion of defined-benefit pensions in corporations are leaving many people, particularly those in low to medium income brackets, with less certainty about their future financial security. One analysis suggests that Canadians now in their late 20s and early 30s could see a 30% drop in their standard of living when they retire. A stronger, easier-to-understand pension system is better for the economy, McCaughey said, which is ultimately better for banks. While he still advocates the benefits of RRSPs and tax-free savings accounts, he said CPP is more reliable and clear on how

Protect your most valuable asset yourself and your loved ones Buy term insurance buy peace. Price: cup of coffee a day or even less. Save money. Compare our rates with Banks' Mortgage insurance rates.

concerns. The 8 important currencies are now split between those who participate in the currency wars and will see their currencies weakening, and those who don’t and will see their currencies strengthening. Here are 4 winners and 4 losers, according to currency traders: Winners: 1. JPY: The pro-growth / antideflation policies also contain an agenda to weaken the yen, and now Japan received the green light to follow through with its policies. >>Cont. Pg.2

3

Resale Housing News for February I half

“Opinions”

4

22

23

Toronto and Global Market Review

Why the Canadian Dollar’s Decline isn’t Over Yet Weaker commodity prices and soft economic growth are causing the loonie to lose its lustre. The Canadian dollar traded near a seven-month low, at 98.18 cents (U.S.) Thursday, with five days in a row of losses bringing the currency to its lowest level since last July. So far this year, it’s sunk 2.6 per cent against its U.S. counterpart. Several factors explain the souring mood about the currency, which traded as high as $1.04 just five months ago. Lower prices for crude oil and several other commodities are weighing on the dollar. Recent economic data has pointed to slow economic activity. Interest rates are low and likely to stay low through this year. And investors are snapping up the U.S. dollar in both a flight to safety and amid broader expectations a recovery in the world’s largest economy is taking root.

Some still think the Canadian currency is overvalued. Peter Hall, chief economist of Export Development Canada, said Thursday fundamentals suggest the dollar should be trading at about 95 cents. Canadian export levels have yet to return to pre-recession levels. . Over time, as the U.S. economy strengthens and commodity prices moderate, IMF expects some natural depreciation of the Canadian dollar, which will help boost exports and economic growth.

much it will provide, which encourages saving. Pushing for a greater focus on the federally run CPP is remarkable coming from one of Canada’s top bankers, since the sector derives considerable revenues from investment products such as mutual funds in RRSPs. McCaughey believes CPP is the best vehicle for boosting retirement savings,

since it promises a certain payout on a specified date (age 65, or 60 if taken early at a reduced amount) and the contributions are committed over a long period – meaning they can’t be withdrawn on a whim. This allows the funds to compound. However, banks cannot operate funds that deny customers access to their money, leaving CPP as the best option, he said.

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age 30 Male Female $ 11 $9 $ 21 $ 15

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(Source: baystreet.ca)

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25 FEBRUARY 2013

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Some of the (life) questions are urgent, such as how to deal with a parent in failing health, while others involve longer-term goals, such as funding college, starting a business or retiring early. In many cases, the answer to these questions involves a cash value life insurance policy. Yet, few people are aware of how such an approach can work for them. Here are four questions clients might have that offer the ability to provide insights about life insurance. 1. How can I help my kids afford a college education? Most parents dream of a college education for their children but are unsure of how to prepare for it financially. With life insurance, they get two financial tools in one. The first is, of course, the death benefit from a policy, which could help provide college funding if the owner were to die. The second tool is the cash value in a life insurance policy. In this situation, the alive-and-well policy owner could draw on the value to fund one or more years of a college education, depending on the level of cash value. Most parents don’t know that federal financial aid calculations do not count the cash value in life policies. This advantageous treatment may allow parents to reduce how much they pay out of pocket for a child’s college tuition. 2. How can I help my parents —

Four Questions, One Answer: Life insurance with money and time — as they age? Too often, sons and daughters are caught without a clear plan when aging

value. 3. How can I get funding to start my own business?

parents suddenly need help. Parents might need financial assistance due to unmanageable medical bills. Or they may need greater personal attention, which could require their children to take time off from work, shift to a parttime schedule, or even take a leave of absence if the situation escalates. A life insurance policy’s cash value can help ease these pressures. The son or daughter can withdraw policy cash value to help pay large medical bills without having to dip into retirement or savings accounts. He or she may also be able to spend extra time with parents by working fewer hours, making up the pay gap by tapping into the life policy’s cash

The dream of running a business calls to many people, whether they have a novel idea or just a desire to be their own boss. But finding funding for a new venture can be tough. Some entrepreneurs start small and reinvest their profits, but they often become impatient at the slow growth such bootstrapping delivers. Others take out bank loans, only to be crushed by the strain of immediate repayments. With enough cash value in a life insurance policy, the policy owner can quickly access startup capital for a new business. The cash can help with basic business expenses or even personal necessities, such as medical or disability insurance. Few people are aware that two famous entrepreneurs — Walt Disney and Ray Kroc — relied on life insurance policy loans to fund their bold visions for Disneyland and McDonald’s, respectively. 4. How can I retire when I want — and on my own terms?

Weekly Statistics Canada News CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR JANUARY IS BETTER THAN EXPECTED The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in the 12 months to January, following a 0.8% gain in December. The main factor in the smaller increase in the CPI was gasoline prices. Excluding gasoline, the CPI increased 0.6% in the 12 months to January. This slower increase was led by year-over-year price declines for clothing and smaller price gains for food purchased from stores. Shelter costs rose 0.6% in the 12 months to January, matching the increase in December. Rent and homeowners' replacement cost was up on a year-over-year basis. Conversely, mortgage interest cost decreased 4.2%. RETAIL TRADE, DECEMBER 2012 DECLINED Following five consecutive monthly gains, retail sales declined 2.1% to $38.6 billion in December. Excluding sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales decreased 0.9%. Retail sales were down in all provinces in December. Ontario (-2.4%) reported the largest decrease in dollar terms, with widespread declines across store types. This decrease more than offset the gains of the previous two months

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Currency wars:... From Pg.1 The recent weakening is just the beginning. 2. CHF: The small and rich country is not part of the G-20, but still enjoys the communique. The floor of 1.20 under EUR/CHF just received another approval. Direct currency intervention can continue. 3. USD: The United States officially has a “strong dollar” policy, but when the central bank maintains a policy of open ended Quantitative Easing (QE or dollar printing), the words are countered with the opposite policy. In addition, the date-less commitment regarding the low interest rates also weighs on the greenback. 4. GBP: The United Kingdom has one of the largest QE programs in comparison with its GDP. Worsening economic conditions open the road for more QE, as officials have hinted. Losers: 1. EUR: The euro-zone is suffering from a deep recession and certainly needs a weaker euro for growth. ECB president said it out loud, but the actual

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By Kurt Fasen Few people are in complete control of the timing of their retirement. Those with significant cash value in a life insurance policy, however, can exert greater control over the age at which they retire. Policy owners who diligently build up their cash value over decades can enjoy more flexibility when it comes to the timing of retirement, and they can have the cash to do it, on a tax-favored basis. Cash value can be tapped to allow for early retirement, providing a bridge until qualified plans or Social Security begin to pay out. Or cash value can supplement monthly income when the owner is in retirement. Importantly, there are no rules dictating how long money in a policy must be kept in or when it must be taken out. Naturally, if the policy owner dies before retirement, the life insurance proceeds can protect his or her family, perhaps helping the surviving spouse during the retirement years. It’s never too soon to start Ideally, a client should get cash value life insurance at a young age. It can take decades to build significant cash value, so an early start can be critical to gleaning major benefits later on. Also, by locking in the cost of a death benefit at a younger age, the client can typically enjoy a lower price due to better health. (source: http://www.lifehealthpro.com)

Perrii Muthuraman is a licensed life insurance professional in Ontario and if you are looking for a solution to any of these four questions, you can contact him at 416 473 6100 . policy is monetary tightening: the LTROs are scaled back. 2. CAD: Canadian officials may occasionally complain about the exchange rate, but with a normally hawkish stance, the higher exchange rate curbs inflation. It is hard to imagine Canada moving anywhere close to the policies of its southern neighbor anytime soon. 3. AUD: In the past, there was some talk about “passive intervention” by the RBA. How can an intervention be passive? Australia isn’t expected to move in the direction of intervention. The A$ is not the strongest currency, due to domestic weakness, but is still a loser in the currency wars. 4. NZD: Also New Zealand complained about the exchange rate, but its finance minister recently admitted that New Zealand cannot and will not try to devalue its currency and “will not bring a peashooter to the battleground”. NZD/USD is already at a 17 month high, and has potential to rise. Will the Canadian economy be affected by Japan’s aggressive monetary policy? We have to wait and see. (Source : forexcrunch.com)


25 FEBRUARY 2013

Housing Market

DREAMS MONEY

From Perrii’s Blog: www.perrii.com

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RESALE HOUSING NEWS for February I half

Editor-in-Chief & Publisher Perrii Muthuraman Direct : 416 473 6100

Editor & Technical Advisor Aishwar Muthuraman 105-2100 Ellesmere Road, Scarborough, ON, M1H 3B7 Ph: 647 352 4945 | Fax: 647 352 6110 Email: info@dreamsandmoney.com www.dreamsandmoney.com DISCLAIMER Dreams and Money takes care to present all the information as accurately and efficiently as possible. Any advice or recommendation appearing in the paper is also part of information only. They should not be construed as an expert opinion. Please note that no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or the completeness of the information is given. Information always keeps changing. Hence all the information, including advice and recommendations are to be treated as of general nature only. For your specific circumstances, you are always advised to consult an expert before acting on any information.

unsolicited articles & community news are welcome selected ones will be published email : editor@dreamsandmoney.com Copyright © 2010 Dreams and Money, Canada. All Rights Reserved.

THE MISSION At Dreams & Money, we want to help people lead happy lives. We want to help people reach their dreams. A lot of dreams in the world require financial awareness and proper planning to bring to fruition. To get this financial knowledge can be challenging. We realize this, and want to make this process simpler. We will bring you financial news happening around you that impacts you, along with timeless classics on topics like financial planning, life skills, health etc. to help you grow all around to reach your dreams. If you are someone who shares this same passion, and think you can contribute to us in any way (writing articles, spreading the message etc.), please let us know. We’ll be happy to hear from you.

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 2,823 sales through the TorontoMLS system during the first 14 days of February. This result represented a decline of 8.3 per cent compared to the same period in 2012. "The number of transactions was lower for most home types in comparison to last year, but so too was the number of new listings. This means that market conditions remained quite tight, especially for low-rise home types. The result was continued price growth over

last year," said Toronto Real Estate Board President Ann Hannah. The average selling price for TorontoMLS transactions in the first half of February was $509,061 – up by four per cent in comparison to the same time last year. "The annual rate of price growth so far in February has been in line with expectations for 2013. The average selling price in the GTA will continue to remain in a standoff," notes Queen's University business professor and real estate expert John Andrew. "Sellers are holding out for their prices and buyers are waiting for deals. I think it's too early yet, but there will be a correction." ŸThe January reading suggests that

"OPINIONS" Here are some opinions about GTA Real estate market. My own comments are not added to any of these opinions. You are free to draw your own conclusions. Ÿ Don't be shocked to see GTA sales pick up and prices climb about three per cent this year — for houses, not so much for condos — with the jobless rate at its lowest point in four years, interest rates unlikely to rise until April, 2014 and the added bonus of surging equity markets, says BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic. Ÿ "Buyers and sellers

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grow this year but at a slower pace compared to 2012. The basis of this price growth will be the lowrise segment of the market, for which months of inventory and therefore choice for buyers remains very low," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. the housing market may be stabilizing after the cool-down witnessed since tighter mortgage rules took effect in July 2012, writes TD's Derek Burleton. According to the bank's research, the impact of new mortgage insurance rules tends to wear out after six to nine months. Burleton expects this to be the case for the latest round of tightening as well, especially since a relatively healthy labour market and interest rates at historic lows should encourage homebuying.

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25 FEBRUARY 2013

INVESTING

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Global and Indian Market Weekly Review - Week Ended 22 February 2013 Review of Global markets Asian and US markets opened positive and ended higher after trading volatile during the week. European markets traded mostly with negative trend and gained on Friday. Global stocks dropped on Thursday after minutes from the US Federal Reserve's latest meeting late the prior day showed that some members expressed concerns about the central bank's monetaryeasing program and fed expressed concerns that global liquidity will fall. Uncertainty over future US monetary policy, softer-than-expected read on manufacturing in the Philadelphia area further hurt sentiment. European stocks were also hurt by disappointing Euro zone purchasing managers' data from Mark it that was released on Thursday. That data suggests the Euro zone is still in overall economic contraction in the first quarter. Market sentiment was boosted at the end of week on bargain hunting and as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve's commitment to its current accommodative policy. However, weak US and European data clouded growth prospects, limiting gains. Weak business conditions in US hopes that the Federal Reserve may not discontinue its economic stimulus earlier than expected. Japanese trade data showed that the country's exports grew 6.4% in January, a faster pace than expected. Japan's trade deficit hit a record 1.629 trillion yen in January 2013. The latest data showed that foreign direct investment in China fell 7.3% in January from yearearlier levels. UK jobless claims fell more than twice as much as forecast in January as job creation surged, showing the

M.Shekar

sector start unveiling monthly sales volume data soon. Markit Economics will unveil HSBC India Manufacturing PMI, which gauges the business activity of India's factories, for February 2013 on Friday, 1 March 2013. Investors' focus is on Union Budget 2013-14 to be presented to the Parliament on Thursday, 28 February 2013. The Budget Session of the Parliament began on 21 February 2013 and will conclude on 10 May 2013. The Railway Budget for 2013-2014 will be presented to the LokSabha on Tuesday, 26 February 2013 immediately after Question Hour. The Economic Survey of India will be laid in the Parliament on Wednesday, 27 February 2013. PSU disinvestment and reduction of promoter stake to meet the Securities &

resilience of the labor market amid a f r a g i l e e c o n o m i c r e c o v e r y. Unemployment claims fell 12,500 from December to 1.54 million The euro-zone downturn appeared to steepen in February, with the preliminary composite purchasing-managers' index slumping to a two-month low of 47.3 from a January reading of 48.6. The February services PMI dipped to a three-month low of 47.3 versus a January level of 48.6, while the manufacturing PMI for the region edged down to 47.8 from 47.9. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's January meeting released on Wednesday, revealed that many Fed officials are worried about the costs and risks arising from the central bank's quantitative-easing program, with the Fed's balance sheet recently passing the $3 trillion mark. Review of Indian markets Indian markets declined during the week on uncertainty about US monetary policy. Market rose in three out of five trading sessions Sensex fell 0.78% to 19317.01 and Nifty fell 0.63% to 5,850.30 in the week ended Friday, 22 February 2013. Market outlook – week begins from 25 February 2013 Auto and cement stocks will be in focus as companies from these two

Exchange Board of India (Sebi) mandated minimum public shareholding of 25% for private companies and 10% for state-run firms will result in supply of equity in the market over the next few months. The Fed minutes indicated the central bank will review the program in March 2013. Investors remained cautious ahead of the Japan-US summit, the Bank of Japan governor nomination and Italy's elections. The government of India also taking steps to attract investors from all over the world to invest in India. You can make money by investing in India with a good financial plan. We provide advisory services to frame a good financial plan, which able to manage your debts as well as save money and create wealth. We also provide practical training to make you independent investor Further details: shekarm@indiafinancebazaar.com www.indiafinancebazaar.com |www.ifmaonline.com Ph : +91 9380034431/9962534431

REINITIATING THE UPTREND? TSX Trend From Feb.18, 2013 to Feb.22, 2013

TSX Trend From Feb.23, 2012 to Feb.22, 2013

GOLD PRICE UNDER PRESSURE In the last edition, I said the gold price has started bear run but would bounce to $1625 from the low of $1597. It bounced to $1618 on 18 th Feb from $1597 but then it failed to move up further and pulled down to as low as $1554 on 21 st Feb. Presently the price is in 'over sold' status and will attract buyers. The buyers may be able to push it up maximum 1600 to $1625 which is 38 % to 50 % FIB retracement for the current bearish run from $1685. On 22 nd Feb, it pulled up to $1585 and more bounce can be seen in the coming week. But one can expect that the price between 1600 to $1625 will find sellers once again. Year 2011 low has been $1525 and possibly this price may be re tested in the coming weeks. What may be your short term strategy? Sell on 'bounce' around 1600 to $1625 for a good reward. $1525 will provide a good support as this price was year 2011 low. A close watch is needed whether this

by Manivannan

price will provide long term support. There is a slim chance it might fall to next support $1450. The readers must know that according to figures released by UBS, the production cost of 1 ounce gold is $1498. So, one must take calculated risk if the price falls below $1525. One can take this current small bullish move to 1600 to $1625 to cover the existing long positions and open fresh short positions around these levels. The above is purely my own analysis and readers are advised to assess their own risk before investing.

Source : Yahoo Finance

The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) closed at 12,701.63 and notched a gain of 0.12 percent for the week. Thus the index ended the week with a slight gain despite sharp mid-week falls. The index's gain echoed moves in U.S. and European markets. Canadian banks rode higher on broadly positive sentiment for equities. Their quarterly earnings season starts next week and dividend increases are expected. The energy sector gained as the price of crude oil rebounded after two days of heavy losses. Canadian miners bucked the trend, with heavy selling in fertilizer companies in particular. The Canadian dollar was at an eight-month low amid data showing lower than expected retail sales and tame inflation figures. The Dow Jones industrials closed at 13,926.43, the Nasdaq at 3,141.14 and the S&P 500 index was at 1,506.45. 4


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Dreams & Money: February 2013 Issue 4