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CANADA EYES IMMEDIATE, SIGNIFICANT HIT FROM 'FISCAL CLIFF'
CANADA'S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GETTING BRIGHTER, OECD SAYS 0.02 percentage points in September, after going unchanged in August and dropping slightly in the previous three months. For the U.S., Canada's biggest export market by far, the index rose one-tenth of a point, while China's steep decline appears to have been arrested. (Source: CBC)
Canadian Business Confidence Drops for Second Straight Quarter Business confidence in Canada fell in the third quarter, the second decline in a row, as sentiment deteriorated to levels of a year earlier, the Conference Board of Canada said. The organization's index of business confidence dropped 5.5 points from the second quarter to 92.3. In the first quarter of 2012, it stood at 101.8. Only 32 percent of business leaders surveyed reported that their businesses are operating at, or close to, full capacity. This was the lowest capacity utilization rate since the beginning of 2010, early on in the economic recovery. Only 14 percent of business leaders surveyed said they believe economic conditions will improve over the next
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Canada's gross domestic product would suffer a significant and immediate decline if the United States were not to avert its "fiscal cliff," Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Friday in a speech in New York. The "fiscal cliff" refers to automatic tax hikes and spending cuts that are to be triggered on Jan. 2 if legislators and the White House cannot agree on a more nuanced budget deal. He also said the government was on course to balance the budget in the next
The outlook for the economy has brightened somewhat for Canada and two countries--the United States and China-- critical to Canadian exporters, according to Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD's new leading indicator reading for Canada shows a small rise of
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six months, compared with 43 percent six months ago. Two-thirds of respondents now expect conditions to remain the same, the highest percentage since 2007. The respondents were more optimistic about the future of their own companies versus the overall economy. Fifty percent said they expect profits to improve over the next six months, down
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two to three years. On Tuesday, he had presented a fiscal update which projected a surplus only in 2016-17, but Prime Minister Stephen Harper said on Friday the goal was still to balance the budget by the October 2015 election.
Free Market Evaluation Behavioural Economics
"The commitment to manage public finances in a responsible manner has been a key element of our Government's comprehensive long-term agenda to foster strong, sustainable, long-term economic growth and the creation of highquality, value-added jobs for Canadians, said Minister Flaherty. " Our Government is striking the right balance between returning to balanced budgets over the medium term and continuing to invest in the key drivers of economic
Weekly Statistics Canada News
Canadian Resale Housing Activity Stable in October
Economic update: Canada's Economic Resilience Amidst Global Uncertainty
Toronto and Global Market Review
growth and job creation." The Minister noted that the Canadian economy has experienced one of the best performances among Group of Seven (G-7) countries over the recovery, more than recouping the output lost during the recession and outperforming all other G-7 countries in job creation. In addition, Canada is the only country in the G-7 to have more than fully recovered all of the business investment that was lost during the recession.
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slightly from 53 percent last quarter. The percentage of respondents who said they expect the financial position of their companies to improve over the next six months was down slightly at
47.3 percent from 49 percent last quarter. The Conference Board conducted its survey between Sept. 12 and Oct. 10
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Weekly Statistics Canada News
ŸDemand for Canadian Bonds: Foreign investors acquired $10.6 billion of
WHAT IS.IT ?
Canadian debt securities in September, the largest such investment since May. This activity reflected increased demand for Canadian bonds, partly offset by lower purchases of money market instruments. Foreign investors have acquired $55.8 billion of Canadian debt securities so far in 2012, on par with the level of investment observed for the same period in 2011. The investment focus, however, has shifted from federal Treasury bills in 2011 to federal bonds in 2012. ŸApartment Building Construction cost increase: The composite price index for apartment building construction increased 0.1% in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter. This change was the result of a slight increase in material prices used in the apartment building construction market. Of the seven census metropolitan areas (CMAs) surveyed, six reported quarterly increases varying from 0.1% to 0.6%. Halifax (+0.6%) posted the largest increase, while Montréal was relatively unchanged. Toronto posted 0.1% increase Japan is in a "technical recession” OCBC Treasury Research noted: Japan has downgraded its economic assessment for a fourth month, citing “weakness recently due to the deceleration of the world economy” and “attention should be paid to employment and income situations in the future, and the adverse effects of deflation on the economy”. The yen headed lower on "expectations of aggressive monetary easing from the Bank of Japan.”
IT IS “Mind + Money”
Standard economics typically assumes people make rational decisions. But behavioural economics brings emotion and thinking traps into the equation – examining those irrational tendencies that see us falling for the special deals in store, investing with the “herd”, being reluctant to sell our losing investments and more. It is said to be the study of how people actually behave rather than how they would behave if they were perfectly rational. (Source : ezonomics)
HOW TO AVOID EMOTION AND THINKING TRAPS, WHEN DEALING WITH MONEY? Here are Morris Altman's Advice (10 Decision-Making Lessons)
TIDBITS - WORLD NEWS
US, UK retail sales down US retail sales reported by the Commerce Department were down 0.3 percent, a drop blamed on uncertainty about the economy and Hurricane Sandy. Retail sales in the United Kingdom were also down, falling 0.8 percent in October over September Euro too down Eurostat data showed that GDP for the euro zone contracted 0.1 percent in Q3 after a 0.2 percent contraction in Q2, which means the area is back in recession.
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
Be Wary of Overconfidence You Can't Believe Everything You Read Avoid Situations That Require More Self-Control Than You Can Muster Don't Blindly Follow the Herd You Can't Trust Everyone Invest Simply (i.e. Use Simple Approaches for Investing) Pay Attention to Sample Size ( Never Decide Based on One Success Story) Read the Fine Print Being Nice Pays (i.e. Niceness, Fairness & Social Responsibility have positive effects) 10. Educate yourself (about Finance)
Singapore cuts 2012 growth forecast Singapore cut its 2012 growth forecast to 1.5 per cent from 2.5 per cent for this year as a weak global economy hits the island's mainstay manufacturing industries and warned of an anemic expansion in 2013. Hong Kong trims 2012 growth forecast Hong Kong's economy expanded 1.3 per cent in the July-September period from a year earlier, slightly higher than the second quarter's 1.2 per cent growth. The sluggish expansion prompted the government to trim its full-year growth forecast to 1.2 per cent from an earlier prediction of 1 to 2 per cent.
(Source: Behavioral Economics For Dummies)
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HOUSING MARKET DEBT Canadian Resale Housing Activity Stable in October DREAMS MONEY &
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Ottawa, ON, November 15, 2012 According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales activity and average price were little changed in October 2012. Highlights: ŸHome sales little changed (-0.1%) from September to October. Ÿ Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity down 0.8% from October 2011. Ÿ Number of newly listed homes down 3.8% from September to October. ŸMarket remains firmly in balanced territory. Ÿ National average home price unchanged (+0.02%) on a year-overyear basis. ŸMLS® HPI up 3.6% in October – smallest gain since May 2011. The number of home sales processed through the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations was little changed in October 2012 compared to the previous month (-0.1 per cent) and remains below levels reported in the first half of the year. Sales activity improved in about half of all local markets as compared to September, including Greater Vancouver
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and Greater Toronto. However, in keeping with the national trend, transactions there remain well below levels posted in the first half of the year. On a year-over-year basis, actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was also little changed, down 0.8 per cent from levels recorded for October of last year. Led by Calgary, sales were up compared to levels one year ago in almost twothirds of all local markets. Sales remained below year-ago levels in Greater Toronto, Greater Vancouver, and Greater Montreal. "Sales data in October held steady at the national level, but we are seeing some diverging trends among local housing markets," said CREA President Wayne Moen. "Markets in Alberta and Saskatchewan are gaining strength, while some of Canada's traditionally most active markets have lost steam. As always, all real estate is local, so buyers
and sellers should talk to their REALTOR® to understand how the housing market is shaping up where they live or might like to live." "Little has changed since national activity geared down in the wake of mortgage rules that came into force in July," said Gregory Klump, CREA's Chief Economist. "Opinions differ about how sharply sales have slowed depending on the local housing market." National sales in October were on par with the same month last year and in line with the 10-year average for the month (Chart 1). Activity for the year-to-date is also running in line with the 10 year average (Chart 2). "These results suggest that the Canadian housing market overall has returned to a more sustainable pace," added Klump. A total of 402,322 homes have traded >>Cont. Pg.4
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Global and Indian Market Weekly Review - Week Ended 16 November 2012 Review of Global markets Global markets traded volatile during the week. US markets slightly higher on Friday, European and Asian markets ended lower as investors appetite for risky assets largely subdued on escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and after data showed Europe slipped back into recession. Meanwhile risk appetite also muted on cautious ahead of Obama meeting with the Republicans and Euro Zone finance ministers meet on Nov 20. Offshore economic data weighed on investors risk sentiment, with the European Union's statistics agency said that the combined economy of the 17 countries that use the euro contracted 0.1% in the third quarter from the previous quarter, signaling the debttroubled region had suffered a doubledip recession. The risk bias also muted on worried over escalating geopolitical tension on the Middle East, as Israel pounded the
Gaza Strip with planes and artillery for a second straight day and began mobilizing tens of thousands of troops, while Palestinian militants mounted their deepest-ever missile strikes into the heart of Israel. Investors were also cautious ahead of a White House meeting aimed at averting the socalled fiscal cliff that some fear may tip the world's biggest economy into recession. The fiscal talks will be hugely important. U.S. leaders need to come out of this meeting saying they've made substantial progress. Review of Indian Markets Indian Market declined during the week on weak global cues. Weak economic data in domestic market also
Canadian Resale Housing... From Pg.3 hands via Canadian MLS® Systems over the first 10 months of 2012, up 0.8 per cent from levels reported over the same period last year and 0.4 per cent below the 10-year average for the period. The number of newly listed homes retreated by 3.8 per cent in October following a jump in September. Monthly declines were reported in almost twothirds of all local markets, with Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver exerting a large influence on the national trend. The monthly decline in new listings caused the national sales-to-new listings ratio to edge back up to 50.9 per cent in October compared to September's reading of 49 per cent. Based on a salesto-new listings ratio of between 40 to 60 per cent, nearly two-thirds of all local markets were in balanced market territory in October. The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity. It was another measure that was little changed in October. Nationally, there were 6.5 months of inventory at the end of October. This is virtually unchanged from the reading of 6.4 months at the end of September after accounting for rounding (6.479 in October vs. 6.448 in September). The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in October 2012 was $361,516. This represents an increase of $80, or 0.02 per cent compared to the national average price in October 2011. The national average price continues to be influenced by compositional factors, most notably by fewer sales in Greater Vancouver this year compared to much stronger levels last year, and more recently by fewer sales in Greater Toronto.
Excluding these two markets from the national average price calculation yields a year-over-year increase of 2.5 per cent, reflecting average sale prices that rose in 70 per cent of all local markets in October 2012. Unlike average price, the MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) is not affected by changes in the mix of sales, so it provides the best gauge of Canadian home price trends. The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose 3.6 per cent on a year-over-year basis in October. This marks the sixth consecutive month in which the price gain slowed and is the slowest rate of increase since May 2011. Year-over-year price gains decelerated for all Benchmark property types tracked by the index with the exception of the townhouse/row segment. The townhouse/row segment nonetheless posted the slowest price growth among Benchmark properties. Year-over-year price growth remains strongest for one-storey single family homes (+5.3 per cent) and two-storey single family homes (+4.5 per cent). Prices for townhouse and apartment units continue to post more modest gains, rising 1.2 per cent and 1.5 per cent respectively. Most markets continued to see positive but slowing year-over-year price growth in October. The exceptions were Calgary, where price growth accelerated, and Greater Vancouver, where the year-over-year price decline was smaller in October than it was in September. The MLS® HPI rose fastest in Regina (13.0 per cent year-over-year), but the increase was smaller than it was in September (14.2 per cent). The MLS® HPI also climbed in Calgary (6.8%), Greater Toronto (5.1%), Greater Montreal (1.8%), and the Fraser Valley (1.5%). In Greater Vancouver, the MLS® HPI eased 0.8 per cent year-over-year in October.
weighed on sentiment. Sensex declined 2% to 18309.37 and Nifty fell 1.97% to 5574.05 in the week ended 16 November 2012. Industrial production declined 0.4% in September 2012. Inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) eased to 7.45% in October 2012 from 7.81% in September 2012. India's exports declined 1.63% to $23.24 billion in October 2012. Imports rose 7.37% to 44.20 billion in October 2012. Consumer price inflation inched up to 9.75% in October 2012, from 9.73% in September 2012. RBI governor D. Subbarao said inflation rate of 7.5% is still high, adding that the RBI is on alert to manage both growth and inflation. Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said the government is confident of achieving its budget-deficit target Market outlook – week begins
from 19 November 2012 Market may follow the global cues in the forth coming week. US fiscal-cliff negotiations in focus. The upcoming winter session of the parliament in India and fiscal-cliff negotiations in the US will dictate trend on bourses in the near term. The winter session of the parliament begins on Thursday, 22 November 2012 US President Barack Obama and Congressional leaders begin fiscal-cliff negotiations on Friday, 16 November 2012. Investors are worried about the possibility of the so-called "fiscal cliff" in US, if the Congress fails to act. In Europe, an extraordinary meeting of euro-zone finance ministers is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, 20 November 2012 to discuss Greece's debt crisis and budget deficit, to see if Greece will be eligible to receive the second bailout payment almost EUR 31 billion World is witnessing lot of challenges in the financial sector, opportunities are lying everywhere Understanding the present situation, we have taken the initiative to impart right knowledge for individuals and support them handling there personal investment in a prudent manner with better wealth creation thought process. We are happy to see you as independent financial planner with more financial freedom Further details: email@example.com www.indiafinancebazaar.com |www.ifmaonline.com Ph : +91 9380034431/9962534431
TSX Snaps Losing Streak TSX Trend From Nov.12, 2012 to Nov.16, 2012
Source : Yahoo Finance
Till Thursday, Canada's main index was down nearly 400 points over the past week Stocks in Toronto posted their fifth losing session in a row, with the S&P/TSX composite index recording a triple-digit loss of 118 points, or 1 per cent, to 11,811, led by a sharp fall in gold, utility, and energy shares. The steep correction has erased nearly 400 points, or 3.3 per cent, of the market’s value over the past week and put the index into negative territory for the year to date. Investors have been beset by a range of worries, including figures released Thursday indicating that Europe has again slipped into recession However, Friday sentiment changed thanks to the US news: The US House Speaker John Boehner said that he had “constructive” talks about the U.S. budget with President Barack Obama. on the fiscal cliff Friday, the S&P/TSX composite index closed at 11,877.72, up 66.34 points, or 0.6 per cent. Within Canada’s benchmark index, commodity producers remained weak: Materials fell 0.9 per cent and energy stocks fell 0.3 per cent. The recent market setbacks had driven the S&P 500 down as much as 8 per cent from its recent high in September. U.S. industrial production fell 0.4 per cent in October, well below expectations for a gain of 0.2 per cent 4