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R ROUNDTABLE without the need for a capital market transaction, there could be a slowdown. O’BOYLE: The next three to five years in the multifamily market is going to continue to be bright. We hit a 14-year high on occupancies, at 94 to 95 percent occupancy, and we’ve had the best same-store rent growth that we’ve had in 20 years. MORSBACH: I would like to find a reason to disagree. I really would. People want to understand the potential headwinds, things that could be issues. And Fleisher referenced a great data point, which we talk about all the time. Again, we’re transactional people, so our focus is on transactional flow. There’s almost $1.5 trillion of mortgages that mature from 2015 through 2018, so those are forced transactions that will have to happen. One way or the other, whether it’s a workout or refinance, something has to happen, because there’s a maturity event. But maybe more interesting from our perspective is what’s happening on the equity side of the balance sheet. There has been more capital invested in real estate than ever before, and it continues to be the most sought-after asset class. VANDERSTRAATEN: I would agree the short-term feels like it’s pretty baked in. 2016 feels very positive. Two things we track on the short-term risk factor would be if the interest rate is going up, it causes the stock market to have an overreaction, and sometimes you get institutions that become overweighted in real estate. That’s about the only thing I can think of that would restrict capital coming into the market. I don’t think that that’s very likely, but that’s something we would track. On a longer-term basis, what we always try to pay attention to is how much debt is in the typical capital stack. I think what we got in trouble with in 2007 was not really valuation, but it was that we had CMBS and things pushing debt up into the 90 percent range. You’re starting to see mezzanine funds kind of creeping up again. It’s not

New Series: Industry Insights

  DESPITE THE VELOCITY AND THE AMOUNT OF CAPITAL AND REAL ESTATE REALLY BEING AN ATTRACTIVE ASSET CLASS, DEALS ARE STILL REALLY HARD TO GET DONE. — TREY MORSBACH, HFF very prevalent yet, but I think that’s one thing that we would just keep an eye on, if you start getting second-note debt pushing up into those same sort of higher debt levels. I don’t think any of those things are very likely, but they’re things that we track. Short-term, I’m very positive on deal activity, in Dallas particularly.

Dates: High Net Worth & Family Office: Wednesday, March 2 Multifamily: Wednesday, April 27 Healthcare & Senior Housing: Wednesday, June 22

Join The Real Estate Council and Real Estate Deal Sheet

Capital Markets: Wednesday, August 10 Retail: Wednesday, November 16

for a new series, Industry Insights. We will bring together leading firms and decision-makers to offer you unparalleled expertise in the commercial real estate industry.

Details: Ticket Cost: $100 Location: Dallas Country Club

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Imagine. Empower. Impact.

WINTER 2015

Time: 7:30 – 9:30 a.m. Visit recouncil.com for tickets

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D A L L A S - F O R T W O R T H R E A L E S TAT E R E V I E W / 4 1

Dallas-Fort Worth Real Estate Review - Winter 2015  

What's next for the Design District; Dallas-Fort Worth as an international hub; Sustainability; The Crane Report

Dallas-Fort Worth Real Estate Review - Winter 2015  

What's next for the Design District; Dallas-Fort Worth as an international hub; Sustainability; The Crane Report