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Battersea Park Q1 2014


Introduction Anyone who owns a property in London is a

As well as publicly available sources, we have

property investor. Our lives and plans often

used the proprietary data that we have been

depend on the performance of what is likely to

capturing since 1996 to help us make decisions

be the largest asset we own. So perhaps it will

and provide advice and guidance to our clients.

be helpful to take more of an investor’s view

D&GAM has helped us focus on the data that

of the market.

counts and we think the results make fascinating

To produce this report we worked closely with

reading.

D&G Asset Management, a company we co-

If you would like to learn more about the

founded in 2005. They deploy money into London residential property all the time, so they are constantly analysing different areas and the assets

Battersea Park area, please contact our office on Battersea Park Road.

within those areas, seeking to maximise returns.

Property Values

2013 was an exceptional year for Battersea Park property. But is it a bubble or a permanent re-rating? Battersea Park Real Capital Returns over the last 6 years (2007-2013) are flattered by 2013 performance

Dec 07 – Dec 13

% 90

Dec 12 – Dec 13

80

3

70 1 One bed flats have

produced a real return of 23% since the last peak of the market in 2007...

60 50 40 30

2 ...and all of that return

came from their performance in 2013.

20

2

10 0

3 Houses have shown very

1

1 Bed Flats

2 Bed Flats

3 Bed Houses

strong real returns over the 2007 – 2013 period.

4 Bed Houses

Source: D&G Proprietary data, ONS

An exceptional year This chart compares the real (that is, stripping out the effects of inflation) capital returns for the single year of 2013 with returns over the six year period 2007-2013. It shows that over the six year period, the real capital returns have been good, but not absurd. During that time, the annualised real return was still below the long-term (ten year) average in the area of 7.5%. The reason for these six year returns is that last year was a spectacular one. In effect, 2013 made up the ground lost during 2007-2012. It is

obtain. If this is right, we would expect flats to rise faster in value than houses. The big question There is much talk in the press of a London property ‘bubble’. Successful property investors need to spot the difference between an asset price bubble and a genuine re-rating of prices. Our view is that the 2013 movement in prices has not formed a ‘bubble’. First, because the real annualised growth rate

important for 2013 to be seen in this light. It was

(6.5%) since 2007 is in line with the long-term

a year when confidence returned to the market

trend (7.5%).

and families started to switch from holding cash

Second, there was no evidence that people

in the bank to property for themselves or their

buying in 2013 were borrowing heavily to acquire

children – ‘The Bank of Mum and Dad’.

their property. Property owners with low loan

We also think that 2013 saw the start of the next

to value ratios are less likely to be forced into a

UK credit cycle. This means that, over the next

distressed sale; they will therefore keep a floor

few years, mortgages will become easier to

under prices.


How an investor looks at the market Residential property investors use two key

area, the economy (in particular, interest and tax

measures: the capital value of the property and

rates) and the wider geopolitical picture.

its net rental yield.

The interplay of these factors is what determines

You can make money from an increase in capital

investment returns and what makes property

value and earn additional income by renting out

investment decisions so interesting. We hope

a property you own. The net yield is the annual

this report provides some help as you assess

rent, less expenses, divided by the property’s

your options.

capital value. Both are important and are influenced by many factors including: supply of new properties, infrastructure projects, demographics of the

2013 was a weak year for Battersea Park rental income.

Rental Growth & Yield

Battersea Park 2013 Nominal Rental Income Growth weak following good long term increases

% 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10

Dec 08 – Dec 13 Dec 12 – Dec 13

1 Rental growth has been, 1

for all asset sizes, above inflation over the last five years. 2 Last year rents fell.

2

1 Bed Flats

2 Bed Flats

3 Bed Houses

4 Bed Houses Source: D&G Proprietary data

A mixed year When renting out a property, an investor will

2013 however, was a difficult year with rents

look at current rental yield. However, they also

for both flats and houses declining. Houses are

need to take a view on whether rental income

suffering more due to corporate budgets

will grow; after all, it is rental income growth that

being cut.

maintains real income and yield over time.

Rental yields for houses have come down,

The chart shows that over the past five years,

reflecting big moves in their capital value.

rental growth in Battersea Park has been strong

Conversely, flats are achieving higher yield

and, importantly, above inflation (+19%).

because of their less spectacular capital growth.

10 Yr UK Gilt Yield

2.80%

This is particularly true of one bedroom flats.

FTSE All Sh Yield

3.30%

Our view is that rental growth will remain

UK Base Rate

0.50%

In particular, 2011 and 2012 saw strong growth – the result of tight credit markets delaying many first time buyers entering the market.

stagnant until real incomes pick up.

For more information about D&GAM please go to www.dngam.com. This report is for general information purposes only. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Douglas & Gordon. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy. Douglas & Gordon accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use.

Current Yields

Dec 13

1 Bed Flats

3.9-4.5%

2 Bed Flats

3.2-4.0%

3 Bed Houses

2.4-3.6%

4 Bed Houses

2.4-3.6%


Market Context It has become a truism that London is ‘different’ from the rest of the UK property market. This chart shows just how true this is.

Battersea Park vs UK housing market Real Capital Returns Dec 03 – Dec 13 %

House price indices show that the value

100

of an average UK house has risen by 30% (Nationwide) or 22% (Halifax) over the last ten years. But inflation over the same period has been 38%. This means the value has actually fallen in real terms.

80 60 40

In Battersea Park, the inflation adjusted value of an average property has more than doubled over the same ten year period.

20 0

In future reports, we will look at how different areas of London have performed relative to

-20

each other.

Battersea Park

Nationwide

Source: D&G Proprietary data and Nationwide

Battersea Park key facts & figures Here are the key facts and figures anyone

Nominal Capital Returns to Dec 2013

investing in the property market needs at

2013

5 years

10 years

1 Bed Flats

27%

82%

133%

2 Bed Flats

24%

94%

167%

3 Bed Houses

36%

200%

275%

4 Bed Houses

25%

150%

188%

their fingertips.

Other Assets Capital Returns to Dec 2013 2013

5 years

10 years

Nationwide HPI*

8%

15%

30%

Halifax HPI*

6%

8%

14% 3%

FTSE100 RPI

Nominal Rental Income Growth to Dec 2013 2013

5 years

10 years

1 Bed Flats

-4%

31%

60%

22%

2 Bed Flats

-4%

37%

60%

52%

51%

3 Bed Houses

-7%

47%

87%

19%

38%

4 Bed Houses

-8%

85%

71%

*House Price Index

Battersea Park 2014 Our view

• Credit easing • Area re-rating to continue • Capital values: Flats to outperform houses • Rents to stall

Our Battersea Park Office

236 Battersea Park Road, London SW11 4ND Sales Mark Hutton T 020 7720 8077 E mhutton@dng.co.uk

douglasandgordon.com

Lettings Emma Farmar T 020 7498 5243 E efarmar@dng.co.uk


The Investor View - Battersea Park