Bitfinex Alpha 183 | BTC Bottom Should Be Near

These “core capital goodsˮ are a closely watched proxy for business equipment spending and feed directly into GDP calculations.

The September results exceeded the consensus forecast of a 0.2 percent increase. The government release had been delayed due to the US government shutdown, but despite that disruption, the latest figures suggest that business investment continued to strengthen throughout the quarter.

The surge in capital spending can be attributed to a combination of factors.

Companies appear to be accelerating investment in artificial intelligence, automation, and productivity-enhancing technologies, even as tariff-related uncertainty continues to weigh on manufacturing. Some firms may also be front-running future import duties by placing orders early. The result is a manufacturing sector experiencing uneven pressure, tariffs have dampened traditional output, but AI-related equipment demand is rising sharply.

Durable goods orders overall increased 0.5 percent in September, following a 3 percent jump in August. While nondefense aircraft orders dropped 6.1 percent, Boeing reported 96 aircraft orders on the month, up significantly from 26 in August, suggesting future strength in that category.

All signs point toward a strong GDP performance for the third quarter. The Atlanta Federal Reserveʼs GDPNow model estimates the economy grew at a 3.9 percent annualised rate between July and September, up from 3.8 percent in the prior quarter. The official third-quarter GDP report, delayed by the government shutdown, is scheduled for release on December 23rd.

The firm business investment contrasts sharply with the softer retail sales data seen in September, highlighting a divergence between consumer and corporate behaviour. With companies still willing to spend aggressively despite higher borrowing costs and slower job creation, business investment is providing a crucial counterweight to more cautious household spending.