Figure 2 Bitcoin Total Supply In Loss Source: CryptoQuant) The current band of supply in loss, fluctuating between 57 million BTC, closely resembles conditions seen during the sideways market of early 2022. This parallel reinforces the similarities we highlighted earlier, indicative of a market structure oscillating around a pivotal threshold. Together, these dynamics underscore the importance of what we refer to as the True Market Mean (the cost basis of all active coins within Bitcoinʼs circulating supply, excluding miners), which is a dividing line between a contained, mid-cycle bearish phase and the onset of a more definitive bear-market regime (see Figure 3 below). Sustained rejection below this threshold would heighten the risk of deeper structural deterioration, whereas reclaiming it remains essential for resetting market momentum. The current TMM price is at $81,470.
Figure 3 Bitcoin True Market Mean Source: CryptoQuant)