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though projects built in 2021 with access to the 80% PTC will remain cost-competitive with solar photovoltaic (PV) and gas capacity in several states. Figure 2-2 illustrates the drivers and barriers to future wind energy development within the U.S. Drivers influencing wind capacity installations in the forecast period include state-level policies focused on carbon reduction, sustained interest from the commercial and industrial (C&I) sector, and increasing costcompetitiveness of wind power. Primary barriers to wind deployment after 2020 include plummeting costs of solar PV power, limited electricity demand growth, and sustained low natural gas prices.

-43%

GW 15.0 12.5 Offshore 10.0 Onshore 7.5 5.0 Cumulative 2.5 0.0

-48%

Barriers

Drivers

’08

’10

’12

’14

’16

’18e

’20e

’22e

’24e

’26e

PTC LCOE C&I demand Retirements Offshore policy RES targets Gas prices Solar power Transmission Load growth Weaker

Stronger

Note: The gradient bars for underlying key drivers and barriers illustrate the approximate time when each driver/barrier will influence the wind power outlook. “Retirements” refers to fossil fuel-fired power capacity retirements. Based on 2018 Q4 Market Outlook Update (MOU) Source: Wood Mackenzie

Figure 2-2 U.S. wind power outlook with key underlying drivers and barriers, 2018e to 2027e

Annual capacity installation volumes are expected to stabilize at an average of 4.7 GW/year from 2024 to 2027. Wind costs will continue to fall due to technology improvements, whereas wholesale electricity prices are expected to rise. This will cause utility and C&I interest in wind energy to rebound, especially in concert with continued and perhaps expanded state and federal policy measures to support renewable energy.

2.1.1 LCOE trends related to rotor size Wind energy LCOE has dropped substantially due to many factors, including a maturing supply base, intense global competition among wind turbine manufacturers, improved reliability, and technology improvements. The largest single driver of LCOE gains has been increased energy capture due to longer and more efficient blades. Figure 2-3 illustrates the effect that increasing blade length has on energy production—the most important factor for LCOE improvement.

DNV GL – Document No.: 10080081-HOU-R-01, Issue: C, Status: FINAL www.dnvgl.com

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Supersized wind turbine blade study  

R&D pathways for supersized wind turbine bladesSupersized wind turbine blade studyLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryDocument Number: 1008...

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R&D pathways for supersized wind turbine bladesSupersized wind turbine blade studyLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryDocument Number: 1008...

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