D E BAT E |DI PLO M AT I CA
the Turkish-speaking Uighurs in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region. In the case of Kosovo, even now, less than half of the United Nations’ 193 members have recognized its independence and five of the European Union’s 27 nations have not recognized Kosovo either. One of them, Spain, is obviously concerned about the separatist movement in its own rich Catalonia region. The conflict in Syria vividly indicates just how fragile and tenuous many societies in the Middle East and North Africa are when authoritarian and despotic leaders are driven from power. The overthrow of the Alawite-controlled regime of President Bashar alAssad has been of particular concern because of the spillover onto neighbours, such as Jordan and Lebanon. Both have been extremely vulnerable because of their own deeply divided societies. The fallout from the Syrian conflict was vividly demonstrated in October in Lebanon when pro-Assad Lebanese militias, predominantly Shiite or Alawite, fought Sunni supporters of the Syrian opposition movement in Tripoli. Lebanon has always had to live with deep religious divisions, not just between Sunnis and Shiites, but also Christians and other minority sects. For its part, Syria has historically regarded Lebanon as part of Greater Syria, with Damascus constantly interfering in Lebanon’s affairs, even stationing 15,000 troops there during Lebanon’s bloody 1975-1990 civil war. Syria only withdrew its troops in 2005 following international pressure after the assassination of Lebanese prime minister Rafic Hariri, whose murder is blamed on Syria and Hezbollah. What happens in Lebanon in the postAssad period could have profound and extremely dangerous repercussions for Lebanon’s continued stability. The assassination in October of its interior minister is indicative of the tenuous situation in that violence-plagued nation. The spillover effect of the Syrian fighting also has the potential to destabilize the situation in Jordan, which has been swamped by more than 100,000 Syrians fleeing the conflict, creating incredible strain on the tiny nation, including the pro-Western Hashemite monarchy led by King Abdullah. Until recent times, King Abdullah could normally count on the loyal support of Jordan’s traditional Bedouin tribes, whose leaders’ continued goodwill rests on the various advantages granted them by the diplomat and international canada
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