Page 1

GREEN

Exceeding your Expectations

Community

Average Sale Price

Eastmark Fulton Ranch Ironwood Crossing Las Sendas Lindsay Ranch Mountain Park Ranch Ocotillo Lakes Power Ranch Seville Superstition Foothills Val Vista Lakes

$360,636 60 $693,618 53 $279,503 54 $598,731 117 $307,062 24 $416,287 66 $457,320 51 $317,704 46 $451,288 60 $367,530 90 $566,857 129

e c o n o m i c

Days on List/Sell # Market Price Ratio Closed 99% 99% 99% 97% 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% 98% 98%

103 20 80 68 12 98 30 161 127 38 7

2018 2018 SALES STATISTICS

BY COMMUNITY 1/1/2018 - 7/1/2018

BY CITY

2017

Glendale

$253,137

$270,212

Phoenix

$297,023

$319,498

Mesa

$277,633

$300,561

Peoria

$306,181

$327,151

Litchfield Park

$339,727

$356,526

Tempe

$317,249

$345,642

Gilbert

$339,386

$361,179

Chandler

$343,813

$367,967

Cave Creek

$490,740

$524,155

Fountain Hills

$527,217

$570,027

Scottsdale

$683,200

$744,593

Carefree

$857,812

$900,649

Paradise Valley

$1,820,556

$2,107,756

$49,403 AVERAGE INCREASE IN SALE PRICE

MID 2018

Dena Greenawalt GRI, SRS, MCNE, CDPE 602.980.6001 DenaG@DMGAZHomes.com DMGAZHomes.com | GETMyUniqueHomeValue.com 2450 S Arizona Ave. Chandler, AZ 85258 If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

s n a ps h ot

MID-YEAR

Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences)

METRO PHOENIX BY THE NUMBERS

METRO PHOENIX

Produced by DLP Marketing • (480)460-0996 • DLPmarketing.com


NATIONAL & LOCAL ECONOMIES CONTINUE TO DO WELL

Current events surrounding trade tariffs on construction materials such as lumber, steel and aluminum will make it more difficult for builders to keep home prices down going forward. Despite absorbing a good portion of building cost increases over the years, a large jump in material costs mean something will have to give to keep new housing products affordable. That may be reflected in more high-density neighborhoods, fewer amenities, and smaller models.

By Elliott Pollack Elliott D. Pollack & Co.

By Michael Orr Principal of The Cromford Report

T

he residential resale market in Greater Phoenix has continued to favor sellers in 2018 and overall price trends have continued rising. For the overall market across Greater Phoenix, annual price trends since June 2017 are as follows according to Arizona Regional MLS sales:

The annual average price per square foot rose 7.7% from $145.79 to $157.06 Last Update: 1/1/2018 11:16:51 PM

50K

40K

30K

POPULATION 1.9% increase in 2018 1.9% increase in 2019

EMPLOYMENT 2.9% increase in 2018 2.7% increase in 2019

20K

10K

0K

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Maricopa

Pinal

SFR

Yavapai

Transaction Type

City

Aguila

HUD

75,071

87,920

93,511

2008

Anthem

REO

Apache Junction

Short

Arizona City

Normal

Arlington Avondale

Transaction Type HUD

Normal REO Short

58,384

55,229

60K

68,210

SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS 12% increase in 2018 10% increase in 2019

Hearing cries for more affordable housing supply, developers have sold more new homes in the low $200’s this year; selling 35% more than they did last year within the same time frame. However, the under $200,000 market remains neglected for additional supply. As of May 2018, only 6% of new homes sold were under $200,000 while 78% were between $200,000 and $500,000.

70K

62,346

RETAIL SALES 6.8% increase in 2018 6.7% increase in 2019

Sales volume has increased 2.6% from an annual rate of 94,537 to 96,965. The first half of 2018 is up 2.1% from the first half of 2017, however the 2nd Quarter of 2018 was only up 0.7% from the 2nd Quarter of 2017. At this rate, it doesn’t look promising for 2018 to outperform 2017 in transactional volume. Total dollar volume has increased 12% from $14.5B in the first half of 2017 to $16.2B in the first half of 2018, reflecting a significant increase in sales for all price ranges over $200,000. At this point 2018 has even outperformed the first half of 2005 in total dollar volume by $1.1B and could be positioned to outperform the 2005 record of $30.9B.

Source: Elliott D. Pollack & Co., July 2018

2007

90K

80K

Greater Phoenix Economic Forecast

2006

82,291

100K

2005

83,666

2004

87,728

The monthly median sales price gained 7.9% from $231,749 to $250,000 110K

County

Mobile

© 2016 Cromford Associates LLC - sharing is permitted from Cromford Report subscribers only

2003

99,527

2002

Condo

Greater Phoenix - ARMLS Residential - Measured Monthly

89,222

2001

Dwelling Type

Annual Sales Rate

91,042

The annual average sales price increased 8.8% from $287,093 to $312,390

53,131

There are always threats to expansions, especially ones this long. The possibility of a trade war is one example. The

Overall, the economic outlook for both the country and our local economy remains positive. The rest of 2018 and 2019 are likely to be periods of continued expansion. The head winds of increased tariffs and higher interest rates could affect the speed of the expansion, but are not likely to affect the positive direction of the economy.

SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SALES

73,064

Other data suggesting that the expansion will continue include continued gains observed in the index of leading indicators, strong consumer confidence, a positively sloped yield curve (investors aren’t fleeing to the safety of U.S. Treasuries) and record levels of job openings. Given that this recovery/expansion is now the second longest in U.S. history, that is all good news. By this time next year, the expansion is likely to be the longest in U.S. history.

The local economy continues to move forward as well. Employment is still growing at a rate fast enough to put Greater Phoenix 7th out of the 34 major employment markets in the U.S. in percentage terms and 6th in the country in terms of absolute job gains. The unemployment rate in the Greater Phoenix area now stands at 3.4% compared to 4.1% a year ago. Given the growth in jobs, it is likely that population growth will modestly accelerate over the next year.

Residential Real Estate:

103,178

Also noteworthy for the economy, the Fed recently increased the Fed funds rate again. In fact, they believe that the economy is strong enough to allow increases in the interest rate over the next several quarters. Obviously, that is subject to change based on economic conditions. But, anticipate rising interest rates to continue over the next year.

Overall, we expect some type of compromise with all of our trading partners that will reduce trade tensions and stop or somewhat mitigate intellectual property theft. That will allow the expansion to continue. Given the massive stimulus of the tax cuts and the likely increase in government spending on infrastructure, the odds favor continued growth for the rest of 2018 and 2019.

Overall, sellers remain in good position going into the second half of 2018 as potential homebuyers struggle with low supply and increasing rents. The cost of rent per square foot rose 4.7% in the last 12 months on properties leased through the Arizona Regional MLS, pushing the median lease price to $1,450 in the 2nd Quarter of 2018. Going forward, home prices are projected to continue rising through the end of 2018.

97,634

In other good news, despite the combination of rapid increases in jobs and a low unemployment rate, wage rates have not yet ratcheted up significantly. This suggests that there is still some slack in the economy, likely in part from the labor participation rate, which is still low by historic standards. This, in turn, suggests that some discouraged workers are returning to the labor force.

term “trade war” is hardly ever defined. Tariffs, which are effectively an additional tax usually paid by the end consumer, will likely increase. Given the continuing U.S. trade deficit, the claim that the country is losing jobs because of this deficit is probably correct. However, whether or not there are enough job seekers to fill those potential jobs is open to question. Also, given that China has so much more to lose than the U.S. being so heavily reliant on exporting its goods to the U.S., it is doubtful that China wants an extended, full-blown trade war.

79,181

D

espite threats of higher tariffs on both exports and imports, the national economy continues to do well. The unemployment rate is now 3.6%, the lowest rate in almost 50 years. Job gains are not only rapid, but, they are happening across the board in every industry.

Flip sales, defined as homes purchased and re-sold within a 6-month period, are up 29% so far this year through May 2018. The growth in this segment is largely attributed to iBuyers more than doubling their output compared to last year. Tariffs will influence investors’ acquisition and renovation decisions as the costs for improvements such as new appliances, water heaters and HVAC units are affected.

Zip

Black Canyon Cit 85003 85004 85006 85007

Price Range

A. $0K to $25K

B. $25K to $50K C. $50K to $75K D. $75K to $100K E. $100K to $125K F. $125K to $150K G. $150K to $175K H. $175K to $200K I. $200K to $250K

85008 85009 85012 85013 85014 85015 85016 85017 85018

Year of Close Date 2000

J. $250K to $300K

2001

K. $300K to $400K

2002

L. $400K to $500K

2003

M. $500K to $600K

2004

N. $600K to $800K

2005

O. $800K to $1M

2006


NATIONAL & LOCAL ECONOMIES CONTINUE TO DO WELL

Current events surrounding trade tariffs on construction materials such as lumber, steel and aluminum will make it more difficult for builders to keep home prices down going forward. Despite absorbing a good portion of building cost increases over the years, a large jump in material costs mean something will have to give to keep new housing products affordable. That may be reflected in more high-density neighborhoods, fewer amenities, and smaller models.

By Elliott Pollack Elliott D. Pollack & Co.

By Michael Orr Principal of The Cromford Report

T

he residential resale market in Greater Phoenix has continued to favor sellers in 2018 and overall price trends have continued rising. For the overall market across Greater Phoenix, annual price trends since June 2017 are as follows according to Arizona Regional MLS sales:

The annual average price per square foot rose 7.7% from $145.79 to $157.06 Last Update: 1/1/2018 11:16:51 PM

50K

40K

30K

POPULATION 1.9% increase in 2018 1.9% increase in 2019

EMPLOYMENT 2.9% increase in 2018 2.7% increase in 2019

20K

10K

0K

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Maricopa

Pinal

SFR

Yavapai

Transaction Type

City

Aguila

HUD

75,071

87,920

93,511

2008

Anthem

REO

Apache Junction

Short

Arizona City

Normal

Arlington Avondale

Transaction Type HUD

Normal REO Short

58,384

55,229

60K

68,210

SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS 12% increase in 2018 10% increase in 2019

Hearing cries for more affordable housing supply, developers have sold more new homes in the low $200’s this year; selling 35% more than they did last year within the same time frame. However, the under $200,000 market remains neglected for additional supply. As of May 2018, only 6% of new homes sold were under $200,000 while 78% were between $200,000 and $500,000.

70K

62,346

RETAIL SALES 6.8% increase in 2018 6.7% increase in 2019

Sales volume has increased 2.6% from an annual rate of 94,537 to 96,965. The first half of 2018 is up 2.1% from the first half of 2017, however the 2nd Quarter of 2018 was only up 0.7% from the 2nd Quarter of 2017. At this rate, it doesn’t look promising for 2018 to outperform 2017 in transactional volume. Total dollar volume has increased 12% from $14.5B in the first half of 2017 to $16.2B in the first half of 2018, reflecting a significant increase in sales for all price ranges over $200,000. At this point 2018 has even outperformed the first half of 2005 in total dollar volume by $1.1B and could be positioned to outperform the 2005 record of $30.9B.

Source: Elliott D. Pollack & Co., July 2018

2007

90K

80K

Greater Phoenix Economic Forecast

2006

82,291

100K

2005

83,666

2004

87,728

The monthly median sales price gained 7.9% from $231,749 to $250,000 110K

County

Mobile

© 2016 Cromford Associates LLC - sharing is permitted from Cromford Report subscribers only

2003

99,527

2002

Condo

Greater Phoenix - ARMLS Residential - Measured Monthly

89,222

2001

Dwelling Type

Annual Sales Rate

91,042

The annual average sales price increased 8.8% from $287,093 to $312,390

53,131

There are always threats to expansions, especially ones this long. The possibility of a trade war is one example. The

Overall, the economic outlook for both the country and our local economy remains positive. The rest of 2018 and 2019 are likely to be periods of continued expansion. The head winds of increased tariffs and higher interest rates could affect the speed of the expansion, but are not likely to affect the positive direction of the economy.

SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SALES

73,064

Other data suggesting that the expansion will continue include continued gains observed in the index of leading indicators, strong consumer confidence, a positively sloped yield curve (investors aren’t fleeing to the safety of U.S. Treasuries) and record levels of job openings. Given that this recovery/expansion is now the second longest in U.S. history, that is all good news. By this time next year, the expansion is likely to be the longest in U.S. history.

The local economy continues to move forward as well. Employment is still growing at a rate fast enough to put Greater Phoenix 7th out of the 34 major employment markets in the U.S. in percentage terms and 6th in the country in terms of absolute job gains. The unemployment rate in the Greater Phoenix area now stands at 3.4% compared to 4.1% a year ago. Given the growth in jobs, it is likely that population growth will modestly accelerate over the next year.

Residential Real Estate:

103,178

Also noteworthy for the economy, the Fed recently increased the Fed funds rate again. In fact, they believe that the economy is strong enough to allow increases in the interest rate over the next several quarters. Obviously, that is subject to change based on economic conditions. But, anticipate rising interest rates to continue over the next year.

Overall, we expect some type of compromise with all of our trading partners that will reduce trade tensions and stop or somewhat mitigate intellectual property theft. That will allow the expansion to continue. Given the massive stimulus of the tax cuts and the likely increase in government spending on infrastructure, the odds favor continued growth for the rest of 2018 and 2019.

Overall, sellers remain in good position going into the second half of 2018 as potential homebuyers struggle with low supply and increasing rents. The cost of rent per square foot rose 4.7% in the last 12 months on properties leased through the Arizona Regional MLS, pushing the median lease price to $1,450 in the 2nd Quarter of 2018. Going forward, home prices are projected to continue rising through the end of 2018.

97,634

In other good news, despite the combination of rapid increases in jobs and a low unemployment rate, wage rates have not yet ratcheted up significantly. This suggests that there is still some slack in the economy, likely in part from the labor participation rate, which is still low by historic standards. This, in turn, suggests that some discouraged workers are returning to the labor force.

term “trade war” is hardly ever defined. Tariffs, which are effectively an additional tax usually paid by the end consumer, will likely increase. Given the continuing U.S. trade deficit, the claim that the country is losing jobs because of this deficit is probably correct. However, whether or not there are enough job seekers to fill those potential jobs is open to question. Also, given that China has so much more to lose than the U.S. being so heavily reliant on exporting its goods to the U.S., it is doubtful that China wants an extended, full-blown trade war.

79,181

D

espite threats of higher tariffs on both exports and imports, the national economy continues to do well. The unemployment rate is now 3.6%, the lowest rate in almost 50 years. Job gains are not only rapid, but, they are happening across the board in every industry.

Flip sales, defined as homes purchased and re-sold within a 6-month period, are up 29% so far this year through May 2018. The growth in this segment is largely attributed to iBuyers more than doubling their output compared to last year. Tariffs will influence investors’ acquisition and renovation decisions as the costs for improvements such as new appliances, water heaters and HVAC units are affected.

Zip

Black Canyon Cit 85003 85004 85006 85007

Price Range

A. $0K to $25K

B. $25K to $50K C. $50K to $75K D. $75K to $100K E. $100K to $125K F. $125K to $150K G. $150K to $175K H. $175K to $200K I. $200K to $250K

85008 85009 85012 85013 85014 85015 85016 85017 85018

Year of Close Date 2000

J. $250K to $300K

2001

K. $300K to $400K

2002

L. $400K to $500K

2003

M. $500K to $600K

2004

N. $600K to $800K

2005

O. $800K to $1M

2006


GREEN

Exceeding your Expectations

Community

Average Sale Price

Eastmark Fulton Ranch Ironwood Crossing Las Sendas Lindsay Ranch Mountain Park Ranch Ocotillo Lakes Power Ranch Seville Superstition Foothills Val Vista Lakes

$360,636 60 $693,618 53 $279,503 54 $598,731 117 $307,062 24 $416,287 66 $457,320 51 $317,704 46 $451,288 60 $367,530 90 $566,857 129

e c o n o m i c

Days on List/Sell # Market Price Ratio Closed 99% 99% 99% 97% 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% 98% 98%

103 20 80 68 12 98 30 161 127 38 7

2018 2018 SALES STATISTICS

BY COMMUNITY 1/1/2018 - 7/1/2018

BY CITY

2017

Glendale

$253,137

$270,212

Phoenix

$297,023

$319,498

Mesa

$277,633

$300,561

Peoria

$306,181

$327,151

Litchfield Park

$339,727

$356,526

Tempe

$317,249

$345,642

Gilbert

$339,386

$361,179

Chandler

$343,813

$367,967

Cave Creek

$490,740

$524,155

Fountain Hills

$527,217

$570,027

Scottsdale

$683,200

$744,593

Carefree

$857,812

$900,649

Paradise Valley

$1,820,556

$2,107,756

$49,403 AVERAGE INCREASE IN SALE PRICE

MID 2018

Dena Greenawalt GRI, SRS, MCNE, CDPE 602.980.6001 DenaG@DMGAZHomes.com DMGAZHomes.com | GETMyUniqueHomeValue.com 2450 S Arizona Ave. Chandler, AZ 85258 If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

s n a ps h ot

MID-YEAR

Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences)

METRO PHOENIX BY THE NUMBERS

METRO PHOENIX

Produced by DLP Marketing • (480)460-0996 • DLPmarketing.com

Dena Greenawalt | MPES  
Dena Greenawalt | MPES