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U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

http://www.dallasfed.org


Consumer Confidence/Sentiment Index 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Recession

Confidence (May 28 release, May = 76.2)

Sentiment (May 17 release, May = 83.7)

Consumer Sentiment: Survey of Consumers, Survey Research Center, U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board

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Housing Starts and Permits Thousands 2,300

1,900

1,500

1,100

700

300 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Recession Housing Starts (May 16 release, Apr = 853) Permits Issued (May 24 release, Apr = 1005)

Source: Bureau of the Census

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New Orders for Durable Goods Billions of Dollars 245 220 195 170 145 120 95 70 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Durable Goods (May 24 release, Apr = 222.6)

Excl. Transportation (May 24 release, Apr = 155)

Recession

Source: Bureau of the Census

http://www.dallasfed.org


Home Sales Thousands of New Homes

Thousands of Existing Homes

1,400

6,800

1,200 5,800 1,000 800

4,800

600 3,800 400 2,800

200 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 New Home Sales (May 23 release, Apr = 454)

Existing Home Sales (May 22 release, Apr = 4380)

Recession

Source: Bureau of the Census, National Association of Realtors

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Initial Claims for Unemployment and Unemployment Rate

4-week MA Thousands of Initial Claims

Percent Unemployment

700

10.5

625

9.5 8.5

550

7.5 475 6.5 400

5.5

325

4.5

250

3.5 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Initial Claims (May 23 release, May 18=365)

Unemployment Rate (May 03 release, Apr=7.8)

Recession

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor http://www.dallasfed.org


Index of Leading Economic Indicators Index 120

110

100

90

80

70 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Recession

Source: The Conference Board

Leading Index (May 17 release, Apr = 95)

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Industrial Production May 15 release, Apr = -0.5

1-month % change

3-year average

2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 2007

2008

2009

Source: Federal Reserve Board

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate Percent 87 83 79 75 71 67 63 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Recession

CU Rate (May 15 release, Apr = 75.9)

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Historic Average (1948-present)

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Retail Sales 1-month % change May 13 release, Apr = 0.09

4

3-year average

3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of the Census

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


Retail Sales, Excluding Autos 1-month % change May 13 release, Apr = -0.12

4

3-year average

3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of the Census

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


Change in Nonfarm Employment May 03 release, Apr = 165

Thousands of jobs

3-year average

600

300

0

-300

-600

-900 2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Index Index

May 03 release, Apr = 55

70

60

50

40

30 2007

2008

2009

2010

Source : Institute for Supply Management ™

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


U.S. Imports and Exports Billions of Dollars 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Recession

Exports (May 02 release, Mar = 184.4)

Source: Bureau of the Census

Imports (May 02 release, Mar = 228.9)

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Purchasing Managers’ Index Index

May 01 release, Apr = 50.7

65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: Institute for Supply Management ™

2011

2012

2013

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Real Value of the Dollar March 1973 = 100 120 110 100 90 80 70 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Exchange Value of the US$ (May 06 release, Apr=84.3) US$ vs Major Currencies* (May 06 release, Apr=86.3) * Euro Area, Canada, Japan, UK, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden

Source: Federal Reserve Board

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Nominal Personal Consumption Expenditures 1-month % change

Apr 29 release, Mar = 0.18

1.5

3-year average 1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5 2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 1-month % change

Apr 29 release, Mar = 0.32

1.0

3-year average

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5 2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


Personal Income 1-month % change Apr 29 release, Mar = 0.23

3

3-year average 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


Real GDP 1-quarter % change, annualized

Apr 26 release, Q1 = 2.5

6

3-year average

4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2010

2011

2012

2013

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WAGES AND PRICES

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Consumer Price Index May 16 release, Apr = -0.37 3-year average

1-month % change 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


Core Consumer Price Index May 16 release, Apr = 0.05

1-month % change

3-year average

0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


Producer Price Index 1-month % change

May 15 release, Apr = -0.7 3-year average

4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


Core Producer Price Index 1-month % change May 15 release, Apr = 0.1 3-year average

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0 2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


Average Hourly Earnings 1-month % change

May 03 release, Apr = 0.1

0.6

3-year average

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


Commodity Prices 1967=100, EOP 1,100

900

700

500

300

100 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Metals (May 02 release, Apr=856.1) KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Raw Industrials (May 02 release, Apr=528.5) Recession

Source: Commodity Research Bureau

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Nonfarm Business Productivity 1-quarter % change, annualized

May 02 release, Q1 = 0.7

10

3-year average

8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Cost 1-quarter % change, annualized

May 02 release, Q1 = 0.5 3-year average

12 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


ISM Manufacturing Prices Index Index May 01 release, Apr = 50

105 95 85 75 65 55 45 35 25 15 2007

2008

2009

2010

Source : Institute for Supply Management ™

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


Employment Cost Index 1-quarter % change

Apr 30 release, Q1 = 0.3

1

3-year average 0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0 2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


PCE Price Index Apr 29 release, Mar = -0.13

1-month % change

3-year average

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5 2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


Core PCE Price Index 1-month % change

Apr 29 release, Mar = 0.03

0.5

3-year average

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

-0.1 2007

2008

2009

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


FINANCIAL-SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS

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Recession Probability Real-time Neftci probability calculated from 10-yr.--1-yr. Treasury yield spread Extraordinary monetary policy*

Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970

1975

Recession

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Neftci Recession Probability

Crosses 70% threshold with a lead of between 5 and 18 months, and averaging 11 months. *Indicator properties of the yield curve may be distorted during this period due to the zero bound on shortterm interest rates and Federal Reserve purchases of long-term Treasuries.

Source: Federal Reserve Board; calculations by FRB Dallas

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Real Federal Funds Rate Percent 4 2 0 -1.92 -2.98

-2 -4 -6 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

End-of-Month Target Fed Funds Rate less SPF Expected Inflation Target Fed Funds Rate (May 27) less SPF Expected Inflation (May 16) End-of-Month Target Fed Funds Rate less U. of Michigan Expected Inflation Target Fed Funds Rate (May 27) less U. of Michigan Expected Inflation (May 17)

Sources: Target Fed Funds Rate: Federal Reserve Board; SPF Expected Inflation: FRB Philadelphia; U. of Michigan Expected Inflation: Survey of Consumers, Survey Research Center, U. of Michigan

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Short-Term Interest Rates Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Target Fed Fund Rate (May 27 = 0.125) 3-Month T-Bill Rate (May 24 = 0.04) Discount Window Primary Credit Rate (May 24 = 0.75) 3-month LIBOR (May 28 = 0.273)

Source: Federal Reserve Board

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Long-Term Interest Rates Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Mortgage Rate (week of May 23 = 3.59) 10-year T-Bond (week of May 24= 1.99) 10-year T-Bond (May 24 = 2.01)

Source: Federal Reserve Board

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Bond Spreads Merrill Lynch’s Yield on Low-Grade Corporate Bonds, Moody’s AAA and BAA Corporate

Percent

Percent

18

3.5

15

3.0

12

2.5

9

2.0

6

1.5

3

1.0

0

0.5 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Low-Grade Corporate less AAA Corporate (week of May 24 = 2.06) Daily (May 24 = 2.11) BAA Corporate less AAA Corporate (week of May 24 = 0.83) Daily (May 24 = 0.82)

Source: Moody’s Investors Service, Merrill Lynch

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Yield Curve Percent 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

3-Month T-Bill Rate (week of May 24)

3-Month T-Bill Rate (May 24 = 0.04)

1-year T-Bill Rate (week of May 24) 10-year T-Bond Rate (week of May 24)

1-year T-Bill Rate (May 24 = 0.12) 10-year T-Bond Rate (May 24 = 2.01)

Source: Federal Reserve Board

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Money Supply: M1 1-month % change, annualized

May 16 release, Apr = 33.48 3-year average

120

90

60

30

0

-30 2007

2008

2009

Source: Federal Reserve Board

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


Money Supply: M2 1-month % change, annualized

May 23 release, Apr = 7.79

40

3-year average

30

20

10

0

-10 2007

2008

Source: Federal Reserve Board

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

http://www.dallasfed.org


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