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2017

BAINBRIDGE REPORT presented by Dennis Paige

Pleasant Beach Sunrise Eagledale Toe Jam Hill Lynwood Center Agate Point Edgecombe Meadowmeer Arrow Point Rockaway Euclid South Beach Upper Farms Grand Country Club Bainbridge Island Tolo Battle Point Hidden Cove West Port Madison Rolling Bay Yeomalt Bill Point Manzanita Baker Hill Fletcher Bay Winslow Crystal Springs Point White


The Bainbridge Report DENNIS PAIGE

Welcome to the Bainbridge Report, my yearly in-depth review of the Bainbridge Island real estate market. This report uses market-wide data from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service to compare transactions which closed in 2016 to that of previous years. 2016 recorded sales were essentially flat, increasing from 469 in 2015 to 474, maintaining a number under the peak of ‘05-07. A strengthening job market and interest rates hovering around 4% has created an intense demand for properties on Bainbridge Island, especially around the median price point. For those homes, multiple offers and very short days on the market are the norm as we move into 2017. Inventory continues to be the significant problem in 2016-17, with Bainbridge experiencing record low inventory for more than four years. In 2016 alone, inventory was essentially flat year-over-year and days on the market dropped another 17% to 41 days. Despite depressed inventory levels, buyer demand has been intense. Market-wide single family median price rose significantly to $740,000, a10% increase and highest on record. The lower range market (below $500K) experienced the largest decrease in sales this year, down 55% from 2014. Overall prices are projected to continue their upward trajectory due to pressures from low inventory and very high demand. The luxury market saw a record increase in sales from 2015, from 72 transactions to 99 in 2016. This year’s strong price appreciation pushed many homes over $1M, which was great news for many sellers. Sales have been climbing since 2011, up 412% over the bottom. Significant sales include my listing on Country Club Road for $5.97M, the highest sale since the Great Recession. If you have any questions or would like to talk about your specific needs, feel free to contact me any time at dennis.paige@sothebysrealty.com or just give me a call at 206-920-3824. For a digital copy of this report please visit http://dpaige.co/2016-market.

Sincerely,

Dennis Paige Dennis Paige Founding Director

Equal Housing Opportunity. Each office is independently owned and operated, Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty - 240 Winslow Way E. Bainbridge Island, WA 98110. All information regarding property for sale is from sources deemed reliable, but Realogics Sotheby’s Intl. Realty makes no warranty or representation of accuracy and is subject to change without notice.

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10% MEDIAN SALE PRICE The median single family price rose 10% in 2016 to $740,000, the highest on record. Low inventory and high demand is projected to continue this trend in the near future.

LUXURY SALES There were 99 closed sales over $1M in 2016, the best year on record. In the top tier, we saw 12 sales over $2M including the highest sale since the Great Recession at $5.97M.


Market Sales SALES - CLOSINGS Sales were essentially flat from 2015 (+1%) while condo sales were a slightly larger percentage of overall sales. INVENTORY Inventory continues to be historically low while demand remains high. Days on the market dropped to 41 in 2016. WHAT TO WATCH? Inventory and demand are the primary areas to watch. Unless more building activity occurs or demand drops off, prices are going to continue their march upward.


The Bainbridge Report

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DENNIS PAIGE

Sales - Closings There were 474 closed sales in 2016, with 370 residential units and 104 condo units sold. Condo sales were a slightly larger percentage of overall sales compared to 2015 and overall market activity was historically strong, repeating the records of last year. Even with high demand, low inventory has constrained the number of sales in 2016. 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Number of Sales

630

517

505

465

232

269

308

324

466

507

502

469

2016 474

Average

404

404

404

404

404

404

404

404

404

404

404

404

404

Inventory Inventory started 2016 at very low levels and continued throughout the year, with an average of 2 months of inventory. Bainbridge Island has experienced lower than average inventory for over four years and Q1 2015 had the lowest number of houses listed on record. Average days on the market have dropped another 17% year-over-year, to 41 days in 2016. This continues to present a significant problem for potential buyers looking to take advantage of low but rising interest rates. 160 140

Number of Listings

120 100 80 60 40 20 0

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

Total Listings

125

134

88

75

96

112

80

95

140

136

91

New Listings

48

18

7

35

39

28

10

37

60

32

14

Percent New Listing

38%

13%

8%

47%

41%

25%

13%

39%

43%

24%

15%


Sales Price HISTORICAL SALES PRICE The median single family price rose 10% in 2016 to $740,000, the highest on record. Low inventory and high demand will continue this trend in the near future.

SALES BY PRICE In 2016 we saw significant sales increases in the $1-1.5M price range, more than doubling from 2014. The under 500k range is the fastest shrinking segment as low inventory continue to push overall prices higher.


The Bainbridge Report

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DENNIS PAIGE

Historical Sales Price Price increases continued their 5 year upward trend with the median single family price rising 10% in 2016 to $740,000, the highest on record. Strong demand coupled with persistently low inventory will continue to put upward pressure on prices in the near future. Our climb from the bottom in 2011 has been even more impressive from a low of $493k in 2011 to $740k today, a 50% increase. $1,000,000

Sales Price - Single Family

$900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Median Price

$541,000

$493,000

$524,650

$527,000

$620,000

$666,500

$740,000

Average Price

$640,701

$581,855

$634,809

$602,500

$706,275

$790,534

$881,824

Sales by Price Category With the price increases in 2016 came a significant increase of sales in the $1-1.5M range. From 2014 to 2016, this segment more than doubled from 30 to 68 homes sold as price increases pushed many homes over the $1M threshold. At the same time, the $0-500k category collapsed, down 55% during the same time period and bringing fresh concerns around affordability for some families.

2016

2015

2014

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

$0-$500k

$500-$750k

50% $750k-$1M

60% $1M-$1.5M

70% $1.5-$3M

$3M+

80%

90%

100%


Luxury Market SALES - CLOSINGS There were 99 closed sales over $1M in 2016, the best year on record. In the top tier, we saw 12 sales over $2M including the highest sale since the Great Recession at $5.97M.

SALES PRICE Sales price appreciation pushed many homes just over the $1M price point, causing the overall median price to decrease with more homes in the $1M-1.1M range.


The Bainbridge Report

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DENNIS PAIGE

Luxury Market Sales - Closings There were 99 closed sales over $1M in 2016, a 45% increase from the peak in 2007 and the highest year on record. The year’s strong price appreciation pushed many homes over $1M, which was great news for these sellers. Sales have been climbing since 2011, up 412% over the low. Sales over $2M have come back particularly strong with 12 homes sold in 2016. Significant sales include my listing on Country Club Road for $5.97M, the highest sale since the Great Recession. 120

Number of Listings

100 80 60 40 20 0

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total $1M+

30

28

24

50

39

54

72

99

$1.5M+

6

7

10

16

8

21

25

26

17%

20%

29%

24%

17%

28%

26%

21%

Percent Over $1.5M

$1,800,000 $1,600,000

Median sales prices decreased slightly to $1.25M due to an influx of sales pushing just over $1M. The average increased 4.2% with a strong showing in the highest tier (5 sales over the $3M mark).

Sales Price - Single Family

Historical Sales Price

$1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Median Price

$1,414,000

$1,533,500

$1,359,500

$1,342,500

$1,398,750

$1,342,500

$1,253,000

Average Price

$1,663,500

$1,543,500

$1,371,000

$1,351,500

$1,540,500

$1,461,838

$1,524,020


Condo Market SALES - CLOSINGS There were 104 closed sales in 2016, a 15% increase from 2015. The condo market represented 22% of the overall market on Bainbridge in 2016.

SALES PRICE Condo sales prices have continued their longterm trend upward, with an 8% median increase in 2016. The past 4 years have seen a steady 8-10% price appreciation in the condo market.


The Bainbridge Report

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DENNIS PAIGE

Condo Market In 2016 we witnessed an 8% increase in median sales price to $404K, a rate that has held steady over the last 4 years. Overall sales numbers resumed their climb after a slight dip last year, from 101 in 2014, to 90 in 2015 and 104 in 2016. 4 sales were recorded over $1M including a beautiful penthouse in Harbor Square, which continues to be a strong building for sales. The most striking takeaway in the condo market is the number of sales in the $500k-$1M price point, which jumped 325% (8 to 26) this year.

Sales - Closings 120

Number of Listings

100 80 60 40 20 0

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total Condos

55

53

67

80

93

101

90

104

$500K+

9

8

6

4

12

21

12

30

14%

13%

8%

5%

11%

17%

12%

22%

Percent Over $500K

Historical Sales Price

2015

2016

$0-$300k $300-$500k $500k-$1M $1M+


SIGNIFICANT SALES Bainbridge Island, WA

Country Club Estate

Sunny South Beach

Timeless Northwest Lodge

Idyllic gated estate featuring 835’ low bank waterfront with water, mountain & skyline views. Truly a place to unwind and enjoy the best of island life!

Spectacular Hamptons style shingled home & guest house on 191’ of low-bank waterfront with captivating views of the water & Olympics.

Wonderfully tranquil with 1.4 acres and 100’ of high bank waterfront, it offers mesmerizing views, parklike grounds.

$5,995,000

$2,995,000

$1,995,000

Gold Coast at Pleasant Beach

High Atop Baker Hill

Stunning Lodge at Derby Downs

Classic Northwest Style in a legacy setting with 95’ of prime, southwest-facing lowbank waterfront. It’s a treasure!

Extraordinary 9 acre wooded retreat offers end of the road privacy with SW exposure and hilltop views of Sinclair Inlet & Olympic peaks.

Overlooking park-like grounds with a pond & cascading waterfall, the home showcases quality & fine craftsmanship throughout.

$1,965,000

$1,680,000

$1,595,000

Watch Hill Classic

Shipping Lane Views

Urban In The Country

Rugged shingled exteriors complement the striking architecture of James Cutler, while oversized windows bathe interiors with light and views.

Long paved drive leads to over an acre of privacy & one level living with close proximity to town. Spectacular views of the Cascades & Sound!

Striking contemporary offers an open layout with light-filled interiors overlooking a lush 3 acre setting that’s just a short stroll to Lynwood Center.

$1,450,000

$1,245,000

$922,000

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2017 Bainbridge Report  

2017 Bainbridge Report  

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