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The New School for General Studies ​okay a couple or three short videos on on Survey Research first why the why question why Survey Research there two reasons first is I'll admit to something that is true of every class that you take that probably your professors don't admit when you when you have a field of a big field of study and it's called one of my research methods is it was a minor in my my doctorate my major was US politics and my mom hair was research methods and when you have a big area of study you have a specialty where you study more and learn more than in any other area and in research methods research methods Survey Research was oh so long ago my area of study so if you take a course in in comparative politics it's about let's say Western Europe gonna find that instructor there's really specializes and it did most of his or her work you know in Germany as I spent more time in Germany talking about German even about anybody else and same for Latin America you'll find a Latin American is spending more time on Mexico or Bolivia or wherever he or she has been south so it is for me with research methods generally and more specifically survey research methods at Ohio State when I was studying onto a course a whole course on sampling and the Department of Statistics and a course on questionnaire and survey design and those kinds of things in the course of getting a minor so that's one reason the other reason is that Survey Research is a nice tool to use to introduce something that's really fundamental to the rest of the course it's really fundamental to data analysis in general and it's absolutely fundamental to inference both causal inference that's where we're headed and statistical inference well we're headed after that and that concept is randomness Survey Research is a great place to introduce the critical importance of randomness in in studying things and the social scientific context quantitatively this video is entitled survey research history it's also kind of an introduction somebody a couple of three and I'm going to talk first about some history then on sampling and then on interviewing to sort of get us to where the strengths and weaknesses and so forth and I don't know if I want to do on a questionnaire design or not just depends on my mood let's start with history in an important date 1936 not even I was alive in 1936 and of course this is ancient history - this ain't fairly ancient history to all of us the president of United States and the first elected in 1932 was Franklin Delano Roosevelt and he's running for the first of what would be three efforts at reelection in 1936 and running against a fellow by the name of Alf Landen I serve he was a Republican nominee you've never heard of him I like the would have never heard of an adenine there had not there been an enormous debacle and what was in the 1930s and the 20s also the sort of gold standard survey research related to politics and and in particular and related to predicting presidential election outcomes this publication literary digest was in 1936 the largest circulation periodical in the United States and you've never heard of it either and the reason is because they went out of business not long after predicting that Alf Landen would defeat incumbent President Franklin Roosevelt in the 1936 presidential election and pour them they had a ton of data I should have looked before I got before the camera in check to see what in 1936 their quote sample sonnets unquote actually was it was huge they were the largest circulation periodical they did their survey by mail you think well I would never respond to a survey about man everybody knew about the literary digest poll and this is a time when there's very little communication about presidential electoral politics nothing like we experienced for example last year or deluge deluge daily with information polls and so forth people answered the questionnaire so they sent to their subscriber base which was very very large and and they really tried to do better than that to get what turns out to be important a representative sample they supplemented their own subscriber base and mail mailing addresses with information for the departments of Motor Vehicles so they have people who own cars anyone we could get into address really telephone records listed telephone addresses to time come not with the cellphone as the wired phone it's attached to a real place that hasn't address so they keep getting addresses where they can and sending their survey out by mailing them getting the prospective voters to write back and say we're gonna vote for Roosevelt or Landon and they predict based on their gigantic sample and they've been predicting presidential elections before this is one reason that the magazine was so popular there's a void of information out there so very popular magazine and in particular and in the Republican is going to win big and he lost big and they went out of business big is there a first one a couple of major incidents and Survey Research where attempts are made to predict the outcome of the election and there are repercussions you canonical ones so what happened well let's think about when they were doing what they were doing and I'll help us get a handle on the importance of this and the coming and in the coming segment when they were doing what they were doing in 1936 or in they're really dead center middle of the Great Depression now probably all of you remember nervousness in your at home and with people you know

from a few years back 2008 when the US economy and then the world economy more or less fell off a cliff for a short period of time and went into a deep recession those times and even though the slow recovery these times are fantastic compared to the depths of the Great Depression rich people were pulled in in nineteen nineteen thirty six times were we're really desperate and in desperate times people vote a and in desperate times people don't subscribe to magazines or periodicals that's a most of luxury and desperate people don't own cars anymore they sold them off desperate people didn't have wired telephones it was a fairly new technology anyway says literary digest is cherrypicking addresses the desire is to extract a representative sample from the US electorate but they're cherry-picking addresses that are associated with people who had resources and people that resources were thought in Republican and the many many people who didn't have resources for voting we're voting Democratic so really really laid the groundwork for people to begin to listen to voices in the wilderness at the time who had been predicting this is going to happen all along because of the unrepresentative nature of the sample and the enterprise one of those people is George Gallup another was Eleanor Eleanor open Gallup of course is the namesake of really the premier survey research organization in the United States wrote for the namesake many things including a center dedicated to to gathering and disseminating results from Survey Research at the time they were doing things differently trying to put it together a sample that we'll see in a minute called quota samples that would be more representative of the electorate and we're trying to make an inference about what the larger group would do and this really gave them a boost they all of a sudden had attention and then an usher in an era of sort of scientific survey research that's based on quantitative reasoning that we'll see in the next in the next in the next video other important events in 1948 2012 Sentinel I might even mention 2000 in 1948 President Truman was running for his first election really in his own right he had inherited the presidency when President Roosevelt died in 1945 so he's running for election by on his own right for the first time in 1948 he made some controversial decisions and 1/4 samples were showing it he was in trouble he was running against a comment but they don't do it either do we didn't win and yet probably some of you have seen on a net picture of one of the most famous photographs in presidential political history which is a photograph of President Truman re-elected greening widely from year to year holding a copy of Chicago Tribune which ran a full-page blowup of Dooley lanes do we defeats Truman was the headline Dewey defeats Truman yeah that's one of those famous photographs in history really the tribute made their call in the election in 1948 based on election returns and it turns out people in rural areas for reporting later than people in in the urban areas and that that really mattered it also was true though in 1948 that means people working with clever samples were finding finding trouble hadn't really made the great breakthrough which is the next era until afterward beginning in the 1950s at the University of Michigan actually begin with 40s but sort of almost institutional the 1952 election marked on the beginning of the American national election studies I believe it was named after the University of Michigan at first they do after done an era of a different kind of sample when we'll explore momentarily called probability a probability sample really for a very long time presidential elections became quite predictable in 1960 there was a close election between Richard Nixon and John F Kennedy but many of the others of the my lifetime most of the time we knew beforehand based on public opinion polls who was gonna win the election before it occurred by the late 1980s in the early 1990s the the Survey Research as a scientific endeavor had really matured and become good that's when I got into the business and in the late 1980s into the commercial side of it before going to graduate school and we were meticulous in our efforts when we conducted surveys to get a high high high response rate on a sample that was selected according to probability rules and we got very very accurate forecasts election outcomes and that was normal in 1992 when the first president Bush George HW Bush ran for re-election weeks before the election occurred he knew he had already lost certain the survey industry that I'm so accurate and it was so able to call all of the important States in advance so President Bush the candidate was forced to go around the country meeting his campaign obligations all the while that was from his advisers that the day that were no good on his re-election bid he would he would lose that effort of course to build to Bill Clinton in 92 he's gonna fast forward there's a hiccup in time worth mentioning just because it was interesting the 2000 presidential election the one that pitted Al Gore against the next george bush george w bush was a major hiccup in the survey research industry related to calling the race on election night in the state of florida you all were very young in the year 2000 and yet still likely you know the story that early in the evening the survey voter news service was this voter new service was the company that had been retained by all the major networks at the same time they all put their eggs in one basket retained by all the major networks to do exit polls to interview people randomly as they left the polls in the state of florida and there is early in the evening the major networks called Florida for Albert Gore Gore wins was the story early mean before the polls closed in the state of Florida they called they called the election be worth looking on on Google I haven't yeah try to figure this out in fact that's an assignment what exactly happened I don't I don't know I know this that the state of Florida the race was so close and this is the point of

bringing it up the race was so close that survey methods are ill-equipped to call a winner we study statistical inference and we looking at proportion estimates from samples you should be able to get a feel for that in fact I'll give you a sort of assignment on the side that illustrates you really can't call an election when it's really really close with survey data let's fast forward to 2012 last year I think a seminal time in Survey Research and it sort of related to response rates for certain no response rates are now ridiculously hideously insanely low and because response rates are low pollsters like Gallup are forced to turn to sort of a weighting scheme after they gather their data from a survey they turn around they waited takes it right back to the quota sample days which we'll see in a minute right now Survey Research is in a crisis period and I'm not sure about the future of it the people who called the election correctly Nate Silver fine 538 now has moved from the New York Times to ESPN nisa assignment Jackman at pollster calm is now owned by The Huffington Post and I mentioned the HuffPo and pollster often in this in this video series and encourage you to take take a look around steer around that's like the people who called the election correctly in advance didn't include Romney campaign in 2012 the Obama campaign mentioned this to you in class the Obama campaign to go from very sophisticated quantitatively they did what was going on and so did Nate Silver Simon Jackman and others who were combining information from all of the polls that were available and overcoming in doing so limitations that are associated with with such bad response rates Gallup the Gallup poll I was so poor and in the 2012 election that the institution sort of has done internal evaluation in its own research methods that's still kind of underway although that very recently released a report about it is very hard in 2012 to get a representative sample from the beginning in 2012 you go and get the best sample that you can get and afterwards you wait it w di ght wait the data relative to various dimensions of demographic for example demographic information hopefully producing at the end of the day something that looks a lot different than the skewed terrible 1936 outcome and yet it seems is there something you learn to house the polling houses are headed in that direction a day when it's hard to get representative data yes I've got to do a quick two quick ones on one on sampling is also these are sampling talk and the interviewing talk are related to history because it sort of moved throughout history and from one type of sampling technique to the other and so it's true for interviewing and the interviewing types personal interview and surveys by snail mail yes it still happens surveys using using the Internet and surveys using telephones just to vary the dominant method today so I'm going to do two more at least Hofstra University.