CFA Society Czech Republic - Survey

Page 1

Survey

CFA Society Forecasting Dinner 2013 Executive Summary

The full report is available at the following websites www.dbm.cz/pruzkumy/english www.ppmfactum.cz


Key findings The government's fiscal policy does not support economic growth. However, the decision to consolidate public finances was good. Although 82% of the respondents do not regard fiscal policy as growth-enhancing, 80% believe it was right to push through the deficit-reduction program. The Czech National Bank's monetary policy creates an opportunity for economic growth, though its leaders' appeals for support for household expenditures are far from convincing. Most respondents (61%) believe the CNB's monetary policy promotes economic growth. A great majority of the respondents (81%) also think the CNB's appeals will not bring about any change in the consumer behavior of the population. The respondents do not have a common point of view regarding Czech membership in the European banking union. The construction of Temelín could boost the economy. However, the government should not guarantee the price of energy. Most respondents (59%) believe the construction of the Temelín nuclear power plant could help boost economic growth in the Czech Republic. However, experts strongly believe (69%) that the government should not guarantee the price of energy to the operator of Temelín. Almost twice as many respondents (25%) forecast that the Škoda JS/Rosatom consortium will win the tender over Westinghouse (14%). The second pillar of pension reform is regarded with mistrust. Only 8% of the respondents expect the next government will keep the second pillar unchanged. Most (57%) believe that fewer than 200,000 people will register for the new system in the first half of 2013. Sixty-three percent of the respondents think the current pension reform lacks the potential to stabilize public finances in the long term. Market fraud is believed to pose the greatest risk of unethical behavior on Czech financial markets. The assets with the best yields should be precious metals and commodities.

About the Survey The survey was conducted for the CFA Society Czech Republic online by Donath Business & Media and ppm factum research between 23 January and 5 February 2013 and aims to reveal the current issues facing the Czech economy, as perceived by economists and financial professionals. The following people were invited to participate in the survey: Members of the CFA Society Czech Republic and CFA Program candidates; Leading figures from the Czech business and financial sector; Readers of The Fleet Sheet's Final Word electronic bulletin; Journalists. Questions related to: Assessment of fiscal and monetary policy; Expectations for the Temelín enlargement and the implementation of the second pillar of pension reform; Levels of unethical behavior on domestic financial markets and yield generated by various types of assets. Out of 8,202 people who were addressed, 1,796 participated in the survey.


The government's fiscal policy supports economic growth 14%

50%

strongly agree somewhat agree

32%

somewhat disagree strongly disagree

don't know

It was a good idea for the government to push through a deficit-reduction program last year 33%

47%

strongly agree somewhat agree

13%

somewhat disagree strongly disagree

5%

don't know

The Czech National Bank's monetary policy is aimed at promoting economic growth 11%

50%

strongly agree somewhat agree

16%

somewhat disagree strongly disagree

19%

don't know

An appeal by the CNB can lead to a change in the behavior of the Czech population 10%

50%

7%

strongly agree somewhat agree

31%

somewhat disagree strongly disagree

don't know

Czech banks are effective in helping Czech companies to succeed on foreign markets 19%

21%

strongly agree somewhat agree

46%

somewhat disagree strongly disagree

12%

don't know

The membership in European banking union represents a danger for the Czech Republic 10%

27%

strongly agree somewhat agree

14%

30%

somewhat disagree strongly disagree

18%

don't know


The TemelĂ­n project can help the Czech Republic boost its economic growth 16%

43%

strongly agree somewhat agree

11%

21%

9%

don't know

somewhat disagree strongly disagree

Possible outcomes of the TemelĂ­n tender 14%

25%

5%

40%

16%

Westinghouse will win the contract Atomstrojexport/Ĺ koda JS will win the contract Areva will be successful with its challenge and will return to the bidding I do not know and do not dare to guess The project will not be implemented at all

The Czech government should provide a guarantee for the price of energy 6%

14%

11%

strongly agree somewhat agree

28%

41%

don't know

somewhat disagree strongly disagree

Pension reform will help contribute to Czech economic growth 13%

12%

39%

strongly agree somewhat agree

34%

somewhat disagree strongly disagree

don't know

Pension reform will help to stabilize public finances over the long-term 4%

22%

strongly agree somewhat agree

11%

36%

somewhat disagree strongly disagree

27%

don't know


How many people will register for the second pillar by June 30, 2013 39%

17%

10%

7%

8% 5%

less than 100 000 people

400 000 - 599 999 people

100 000 - 199 999 people

600 000 people or more

200 000 - 299 999 people

don't know

14%

300 000 - 399 999 people

How will the next government deal with the second pillar 13%

34%

21% 12%

47%

35% 8%

8%

get rid of it completely enable participants to return to the public pillar enable a transfer to the third pillar modify its parameters leave it as it is other don't know

4% 8%

Which of the following types of assets will have the highest yield in 2013 8% 9%

25%

5% 8%

11% 7%

27%

10%

8%

19%

24%

24% 28%

22%

25%

32%

35%

30% 31% 6% Precious metals

4% Commodities

30%

31%

25%

Shares

8%

6%

Bonds

Money-market instruments

will rather decline

do not know, nor can guess

rather high

none - will be stable

rather low

very high


The respondents 12%

Executive (top management) 20%

7%

Middle management Regular professional

10% 21%

Independent consultant/entrepreneur Owner/Partner

10% 20%

Other No answer

13% 7%

CFA members/candidates Business leaders FS Final Word readers

79%

Journalists

Authors of the survey

Donath Business & Media has been active in public relations and public affairs since 1991. You can find more information about the agency at www.dbm.cz. Contact Michal Donath Donath Business & Media Spálená 29, 110 00 Praha 1 Tel.: +420 224 211 220, E-mail: michal.donath@dbm.cz

ppm factum research has been active in market and public opinion research since 1991, when the “Factum” brand came into being. You can find more details about the company at www.ppmfactum.cz. Contact Jan Herzmann ppm factum research Bucharova 1281/2, 158 00 Praha 13 Tel.: +420 233 111 027, E-mail: herzmann@ppmfactum.cz

Partner of the survey

The Final Word is a daily e-mail bulletin on the politics and the economy of the Czech Republic. For more, visit www.fsfinalword.com. Contact Fleet Sheet (E.S. Best s.r.o) Tel.: +420 296 580 160, E-mail: info@fleet.cz