Page 1

MORNING ENERGY REPORT ETRM Pricing Team: Tim Partridge, Catriona Lindsay, Callum McCabe www.dbgroupeurope.com • tim.partridge@dbgroupeurope.com • +44 (0) 1506 848 848

13/09/2018 08:40

Summary Points: • UK’s gas system is 6.6 mcm short today, yearly maintenance going on in the North Sea is most likely

2.1%

0.2%

the cause of this shortage.

3.9%

7.9%

2.42 GW 7.2% 7.29 GW 21.7%

• Renewable are hard at work producing 29% of the UK’s power today, again wind being their best play-

er generating half of this. • Injection unavailability of 1.3 mcm/d at Burton point will continue till this Saturday with another one-

0.97 GW 2.9%

12.65 GW 37.6% 5.56 GW 16.5%

day unavailability planned on the 17th of September. • Multiple EDF energy sites are again not working up to their normal capacity. If these sites were all

working up to full capacity an extra 3.9 GW would be available. • Shortage on the East coast of Norway in Karsto is undergoing yearly maintenance until tomorrow Coal

morning causing a shortage of 7 Mm3/d.

Nuclear

Solar

Breakdown Renewables: Fossil Fuels: Other:

UK Oct Annuals 2018 80

75

70

65

60

Wind

Gas

Biomass

ICT Imports

UK Gas Demand (mcm) for 13.9.18

29.4% 44.8% 25.8%

Forecast Norms Today

Previous Close

NBP (P/th)

Contract Type Oct-18 Nov-18 Q418 W-18 S-19 W-19 S-20 Oct-18 12m Oct-18 24m Apr-19 12m

Bid 71.75 76.95 76.20 77.55 62.35 69.55 53.70 69.95 65.79 65.95

174.1 177 2.9 < ave

ICT Exports

Other

Time Generated: 08:40 Linepack Open 333.2 Close 339.8 NTS 6.6 Short

UK Baseload p/th (£/MWh) Offer 71.85 77.05 76.30 77.65 62.45 69.65 53.80 70.05 65.89 66.05

Change -3.15 -2.95 -2.92 -2.85 -1.35 -1.20 -0.70 -2.10 -1.53 -1.28

Bid 69.20 73.4 72.15 72.70 60.80 65.25 53.25 66.75 63.00 63.03

Offer 69.40 73.6 72.35 72.90 61.00 65.55 53.75 66.95 63.30 63.28

Change -2.40 -2.2 -2.35 -2.45 -1.95 -2.10 -1.65 -2.20 -2.04 -2.03

Market Analysis 55

Prices have fallen again today despite the drop in temperatures. Contracts dropping steeply consecutively over two days is definitely a rare sight at the moment for the UK. The 4% drop since Monday in Bsld annuals may seem negligible to the upward trend we have seen over the past year but these micro troughs can make all the difference when locking in prices.

50

45

NBP p/th

BSLD £/MWh

PEAK £/MWh

The Oil and Carbon World Oil prices continue along a bullish trend closing at $79.8/bbl and actually pushed past the $80 mark yesterday as Iran fears mount! Carbon prices are showing vulnerability to investments and continue to drop. Since Monday carbon prices have now dropped a colossal 10% showing that the commodity is still vulnerable and may not seem as a safe to invest in as it once was. This drop is likely just a fall off from the excitement that took place last week and despite the rise, closing prices are still €2/MT higher than the start of September. Benchmarks

Power generation from Gas stays below the 40% mark as Renewables remain stable producing 10 GW of power. Surprisingly, coal hasn’t budged much this month and the national grid continues to rely on it for a key source of its generation.

Carbon EUA ETS

100 28

95

Forecast demand remains lower than seasonal norms but the two are approaching each other once again, most likely due to the drop in temperature. The Linepack is currently 7 mcm short no doubt due to the increased demand and the yearly maintenance taking place in the North Sea and Europe.

26

90

24

22

85

20

80 18

75 16

70 14

65 Brent Front Month per bbl

60

API2 Cal-19 per tonne

12

€/tCO2e

Forecast

10

Wider Picture Trump’s decision to delay the tariffs on China have now caught up with him, leading to the further US-China talks. Just the prospect of talks between the two countries has given rise to a multitude of events, one of these being Chinese and Japanese stocks rising. More than 60% of US companies polled said the tariffs were already affecting their business operations and multiple industries are now coming together to launch a coalition for free trade to reduce the impacts of the tariffs. Big four energy firm SSE’s shares plummeted by half due to the warm summer that kept heating bills to a minimum. Imperial College London announced a new £7m project to help the UK build a better, low-carbon energy system. They believe that the “deep-decarbonisation of the UK’s energy system requires decisions and actions by a wide variety of people and organisations”. One concept the plan talks about is using excess energy produced by wind turbines to produce hydrogen that will decarbonise the gas grid or be used to charge electric car batteries. Any pricing, market information and/or commentary contained in this Daily Market Report (“Information”) is provided for general information purposes only. All pricing contained in the report is indicative and are not based on tradable prices and/or volumes. For the avoidance of doubt, DB Group (Europe) Ltd. expressly disclaims all warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the Information provided, or as to the fitness of the Information for any purpose. Recipients of the Daily Market Report must not rely on the Information and must take appropriate steps to verify such Information before acting upon it. Further information is avai lable by contacting info@dbgroupeurope.com

Morning Report 13.09.2018  
Morning Report 13.09.2018  
Advertisement