Page 1

Property Barometer Q1 2012

Measuring the Property Market Analysis by Annette Hughes, DKM Economic Consultants


Contents

3

Introduction + Highlights

4

Market analysis

9

County by County Analysis: Market Index

14 Urban Spotlight 16 Indices + Methodology

MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2012 | 2


Introduction

Angela Keegan, MyHome.ie MD

“The last 12 months have been very challenging for the property market...”

W elcome to the first edition of the MyHome.ie Property Barometer 2012. XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Key Highlights 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

6.

7. 8. 9.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX. XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX.

10. X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XX.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2012 | 3


Market Analysis

“G DP w as up marginally, the first real G DP grow th since 2007 .�

Annette Hughes Director DKM Economic Consultants

E conomy ex periences positiv e G D P grow th for fi rst time since 2007

Preliminary N ational Accounts data for 2011 show that G DP w as up marginally (+0.7 % ), the first time the economy experienced positive real G DP grow th since 2007 . How ever, the economy contracted further in G N P terms (-2.5 % ) last year, after adjusting for the profits of multinationals. Domestic demand, w hich encompasses personal consumption, government expenditure and investment spending, continued to act as a drag on overall economic activity last year. The overall positive G DP performance is largely attributable to a favourable export grow th performance (+4 .1% ) although grow th w as low er than in the previous year (+6 .3 % ). This trend may reflect a w eakening in the economic prospects of our main trading partners over the period, a factor w hich is expected to adversely affect the prospect for a more pronounced economic recovery during 2012.

Consumer S entiment Index b roadly stab le in F eb ruary for second month in a row

Source: KBC/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index

MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2012 | 4


The w eak domestic economy is reflected in the cautious mood amongst consumers, as they remained concerned about their current economic circumstances in February, albeit they w ere more upbeat about their expectation for the future. The overall composite consumer sentiment index of both measures w as broadly stable in February,

reaching its highest level in 3 months. W hile still at a very low level compared to the days of peak consumer confidence, the Index has seen a series of six consecutive increases (year-on-year). Consumer sentiment increased to 5 7 .0 in February 2012 compared to 5 0.3 a year earlier. The index w as at 102.9 six years ago in February 2006 .

Property prices decline at an accelerating rate in Q1 2012 G iven the fragile state of the domestic economy combined w ith the unemployment situation, it is perhaps not surprising that property prices declined further in Q1 2012. Mix-adjusted prices nationally declined at an accelerating rate in the q uarter, by 7 .2% compared w ith 2.4 % in the previous q uarter. This is the fastest rate of decline since Q1 2009 (-6 .1% ). Average price Q1 2012

Summary of mix-adjusted asking price changes Q1 2012

% Change Q1 2012

Annual % change

% Change since peak

N ational

€218 ,7 05

- 7 .2%

- 15 .8 %

- 4 7 .2%

Dublin

€24 7 ,6 7 6

- 7 .5 %

- 18 .0%

- 5 3 .6 %

N ew

€223 ,009

- 3 .0%

- 5 .8 %

- 3 9 .6 %

Second Hand

€220,7 7 3

- 7 .3 %

- 16 .3 %

- 4 8 .0%

The annual rate of decline in Q1 2012 w as at 15.8% , the highest rate of decline reported by Myhome.ie since property price started to fall in Q1 2007. The average mix-adjusted asking price nationally fell to €218,705, w hich is 47.2% below the peak in Q4 2006. At this level asking prices are equivalent to around 6 times average earnings across the economy as a w hole, a level w hich is w ay ahead of w here they should be in a normal market. This figure compares w ith the annual decline

reported by the CSO Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) in February of -17.8% . Average transactions prices, according to the CSO Index (w hich excludes cash transactions) are currently 49.3% below the peak (September 2007). Based on the house price value in September 2007 according to the permanenttsb index (now discontinued), this w ould suggest an average transactions price currently of around €155,000, w hich is equivalent to 4.3 time average earnings, a more sustainable level, but still above the long run average price to earnings ratio of around 4.

F urther decline in av erage mix -adjusted property prices Q1 2012

MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2012 | 5


Market Analysis

“Based on the house price value in February 2007 , this w ould suggest an average transactions price currently in Dublin of around €18 5 ,000.”

Annual rate of decline in D ub lin reaches 18% The q uarterly rate of decline in Dublin asking prices accelerated sharply in Q1 2012 to 7 .5 % from 2.8 % in the previous q uarter. The corresponding annual rate of decline w as 18 % and compares w ith -20.3 % according to the CSO RPPI. The average mix-adjusted asking price fell to €24 7 ,6 7 6 , w hich is 5 3 .6 % below the peak in Q3 2006 . At this level, Dublin asking prices are eq uivalent to almost 7 times average earnings across the economy as a w hole. This figure compares w ith the annual decline reported by the CSO RPPI in February of -20.3 % . Average prices, according to the CSO Index, w hich excludes cash transactions, are currently 4 9 .3 % below the peak (February 2007 ). Based on the house price value in February 2007 according to the permanent-tsb index (now discontinued), this w ould suggest an average transactions price currently in Dublin of around €18 5 ,000, w hich is eq uivalent to around 5 time average earnings.

S ummary 1. After show ing some moderation in the previous q uarter, mix-adjusted property prices have taken a further plunge in Q1 2012. 2. N ationally, average prices have fallen by 7 .2% over the previous q uarter, a magnitude last observed in Q1 2009 .

3 . Properties in Dublin and second hand properties experienced similar falls, w ith average asking prices for new properties dow n by just 3 % (compared to 1% the previous q uarter). 4 . By this measure, Dublin properties are now on the market for 4 6 % of their peak asking price, w ith secondhand properties and overall properties nationw ide also approaching the 5 0% line.

Mix adjusted asking prices: All properties, w ith the exception of new properties, take a further plunge in Q1 2012

MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2012 | 6


Potential b uyers need ev idence that asking and transactions’ prices hav e stab ilised The implications of the graph (below left) for potential house buyers is that w ith asking prices continuing to decline, potential sellers are having to reduce their prices further to generate transactions. According to the CSO RPPI, the average prices for those property transactions that are taking place fell further in January and February by 1.9 % and 2.2% respectively or cumulatively by 4 .1% . How ever, until there is evidence that asking prices have stabilised over a reasonable period, it is impossible to conclude anything about w hen transactions’ prices might stabilise. All that can be said is that there remains a gap betw een asking prices and transactions prices, and based on the comparison above w ith the average transactions price, as estimated from the CSO RPPI, the gap appears to be significant. In a normal market the gap should narrow as vendors’ prices become more realistic and as the demand supply balance is addressed.

There has been much debate in recent w eeks about the contraction in house prices since the peak.

dow n nationally by 49.3% since the peak and by 57.2% in Dublin.

There are a number of sources and surveys that are undertaken to establish house prices and none use the exact same property dataset. The official source has become the CSO ’s RPPI referred to earlier. This index uses data on property prices reported at the mortgage draw dow n stage each month by 8 of the main mortgage lending institutions. This dataset excludes properties bought for cash.

The other house price indices based on transaction prices include Sherry Fitzgerald’s index of second-hand properties, w here prices are reported to be dow n by around 60% nationally and by 64% in Dublin.

The most recent data suggests that property prices w ere

Asking prices, w hich in today’s market reflect w hat vendors aspire to, have not fallen to the same extent, w ith peak-to-trough declines reported to be in the region of 47% to 52% nationally and 54% to 58% in Dublin. MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2012 | 7


At current rates, recent reports suggest prices should stab ilise later this year…. Research by Sherry Fitzgerald suggests that almost 3 0% of their Dublin sales in the opening months of the year w ere cash purchasers. W hen recent cash based property transactions and stress sales are included, the current national average peak-to-trough decline is estimated by Davy, G oodbody Stockbrokers and N AMA to be closer to 5 5 % to 6 0% (w hich is in line w ith the Sherry Fitzgerald Index). All of the aforementioned sources expect the eventual peak-to-trough decline in property prices to be closer to 7 0% . O n this basis a further 10-15 % decline, w ith transactions prices falling at a rate of 2% per month on average, w ould imply another 5 to 7 months of falling property prices. This w ould suggest that prices w ould begin to stabilise in the second half of the year. How ever, this w ould need to be accompanied by a recovery in the jobs market, the prospects for w hich are slim over the next tw elve months.

….hence the risks for property prices are more on the dow nside The property market remains in a state of inertia as potential buyers w ait for evidence of some stabilisation in house prices before engaging in property transactions.

measures in the 2012 Budget - increases in VAT, Motor Tax and Carbon Tax - plus the household charge this year w hich is to be replaced by a fullyfledged property tax in 2013 .

O verall mortgage lending fell to just €2 billion in 2011, consisting of just 11,000 mortgage draw dow ns. This is more a reflection of the unw illingness amongst households to seek funding over the past tw elve months given the fragile state of the domestic economy, the persistently high unemployment rate of 14 % and w eak consumer confidence. How ever the lack of access to credit is a key constraint for those seeking mortgage approvals and is currently a major barrier to transactions.

O ther charges, notably w ater charges, are expected in the medium-term w hile the remaining steps to restore the public finances to a sustainable position w ill necessitate additional fiscal consolidation measures in forthcoming budgets. In the meantime the savings ratio, currently at 17 .3 % of disposable income, is expected to remain high as consumers use their savings to pay off debt.

The main positive development has been the substantial improvement in housing affordability in terms of low er house prices and relatively low mortgage rates. But this is overshadow ed by a range of other adverse factors w hich have reduced disposable incomes. These include the austerity

O ther issues include the vacant units w hich are expected to be released by N AMA, the potential number of properties held by over-indebted buy to let borrow ers, w hich the banks are coming under pressure to repossess, and the build-up of mortgage arrears w hich may have conseq uences for bank funding are all likely to increase the risk of a further softening in average residential property prices over the coming months.

“The lack of access to credit is a key constraint for those seeking mortgage approvals and is currently a major barrier to transactions.”

MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2012 | 8


County Analysis - 3 bed semis

% change in asking prices Q1 2012 O ur county by county analysis of 3 bedroom semi detached properties show s the median changes in asking prices in each county. The median is the “middle� price. It can be thought of as the price of the house w hich is more expensive than exactly half of the other houses. W e find that it is superior to the average in estimating the price of a typical house.

MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2012 | 9


County Analysis - 3 b ed semis Based on asking prices for 3 bed semis up to Q4 2011, it would appear that prices had begun to show some signs of stability in a number of counties or were falling by modest amounts, but the price decline accelerated significantly in Q1 2012 in all counties with the exception of Limerick and Leitrim, where the rate of decline moderated, and Dublin where prices increased in the quarter.

“Median prices recorded significant declines (i.e. more than 10% ) in Clare, Cavan, G alw ay, O ffaly, Laois and Longford.”

The median asking price across the 26 counties for 3 bed semis w as €15 5 ,000 in Q1 2012, w hich is 7 .7 % below the price in the previous q uarter. The median price ranged from €25 9 ,000 in Dublin to €100,000 in Longford. Median prices increased in Dublin in the q uarter by 1.6 % and w ere almost unchanged in Limerick and Roscommon. In contrast median prices recorded significant declines (i.e. more than 10% ) in Clare, Cavan, G alw ay, O ffaly, Laois and Longford. Median prices across the 26 counties w ere dow n by 13 .4 % in the year to Q1 2012. The low est annual rate of decline w as recorded in Limerick (-3 .4 % ), the next low est w as in Roscommon (-7 .8 % ) w hile the highest w as in Leitrim (-3 8 .5 % ) w ith Longford a close second (-3 3 .1% ). A total of 8 counties experienced single digit falls in median asking prices over the year, w ith just 5 recording declines in excess of 20% .

Median asking prices for 3 -bed semi detached properties, Q1 2012

MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2012 | 10


County Analysis - 4 b ed semis Market index prepared by G raham N eary, Technical Analyst

4 Bed Semi Median Price Q1 2012

% Change Q1 2012

Annual % Change

Leinster -9 .11%

Dublin

€3 5 9 ,000

Meath

€210,000

Kildare

€23 0,000

-6 .12%

-14 .18 %

W icklow

€3 3 4 ,000

-1.6 2%

-1.7 6 %

Longford

€14 7 ,5 00

-15 .7 1%

-15 .7 1%

O ffaly

€15 0,000

-11.7 4 %

-3 3 .3 3 %

W estmeath

€15 2, 4 7 5

-8 .5 5 %

-17 .5 7 %

Laois

€127 ,000

Louth

€19 9 ,000

-11.5 6 %

-15 .3 2%

Carlow

€19 8 ,5 00

1.7 9 %

-0.7 4 %

Kilkenny

€19 9 ,000

-9 .5 5 %

-7 .4 4 %

W exford

€15 3 ,7 5 0

-14 .3 5 %

-21.9 5 %

W aterford

€19 9 ,000

-11.5 6 %

-15 .3 2%

Kerry

€205 ,000

2.5 %

-10.8 7 %

Cork

€24 0,000

-2.04 %

-6 .4 3 %

Clare

€16 5 ,000

Limerick

€19 7 ,000

-5 .29 %

Tipperary

€17 5 ,000

0.00%

G alw ay

€19 9 ,9 5 0

-14 .9 1%

-18 .8 0%

Mayo

€17 0,000

-2.8 6 %

-9 .9 3 %

Roscommon

€15 2,5 00

Sligo

€17 1,5 00

-2.00%

-9 .7 4 %

Leitrim

€16 5 ,000

0.00%

-8 .3 3 %

Donegal

€15 0,000

-6 .25 %

-11.24 %

Cavan

€17 9 ,000

-5 .7 9 %

-8 .21%

Monaghan

€202,5 00

-5 .8 1%

8 .00%

-0.28 % -10.6 4 %

-27 .4 3 %

-10.6 4 %

-3 4 .03 %

Munster

-5 .7 1%

-10.8 1% -10.4 5 % -5 .4 1%

Connaught & Ulster

-10.29 %

-15 .28 %

MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2012 |111


County Analysis - 4 b ed semis

The median asking price across the 26 counties for 4 bed semis w as €17 9 ,000 in Q1 2012, w hich is 5 .8 % below the price in the previous q uarter. The median price ranged from €3 5 9 ,000 in Dublin to €127 ,000 in Laois.

“Prices increased in just one county (Monaghan +8 % ) w hile the low est annual rate of decline w as recorded in Carlow (0.7 % ).”

Median prices increased in the q uarter in Kerry (+2.5 % ) and Carlow (+1.8 % ) and w ere unchanged in Leitrim, Tipperary and Dublin. In contrast median prices recorded significant declines (i.e. more than 15 % ) in Longford (-15 .7 % ) and Laois (-27 .4 % ).

Median prices across the 26 counties w ere dow n by 9 .1% in the year to Q1 2012. Prices increased in just one county (Monaghan +8 % ) w hile the low est annual rate of decline w as recorded in Carlow (-0.7 % ), the next low est w as in W icklow (-1.8 % ) and the highest w as in Laois (-27 .4 % ). A total of 10 counties experienced single digit falls in median asking prices over the year, w ith just 3 – W exford (-22% ), O ffaly (-3 3 .3 % ) and Laois (-3 4 % ) - recording declines in excess of 20% .

Median asking prices for 4 -bed semi-detached properties, Q1 2012

MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2012 | 12


T rends in median asking prices for 3 and 4 b ed semi-detached properties across 26 counties

County Analysis - 2 bed apartments 2-b ed apartments: dow n 16% in the q uarter w ith doub le digit declines in all b ut three locations Median asking prices for 2-bed apartments have declined substantially in the q uarter by as much as 16 % , w ith the median price now at €125 ,000 (dow n from €14 9 ,000 last q uarter). Asking prices for 2-bed apartments w ere cheapest in Roscommon ( €7 7 ,5 00) and Laois ( €7 9 ,000). Prices in Clare and Tipperary also remained under the €100,000 mark.

“W icklow (€19 9 ,5 00), Dublin (€19 5 ,000) and G alw ay (€18 0,000) w ere the most expensive locations for 2 bed apartments.”

W icklow ( €19 9 ,5 00), Dublin ( €19 5 ,000) and G alw ay ( €18 0,000) w ere the most expensive locations for 2 bed apartments. Asking prices w ere 5 % , 2.5 % and 7 .7 % low er respectively than in the previous q uarter in each location. 4 3 % of 2-bed apartments are in Dublin, 7 .1% are in Cork and 5 .4 % are in G alw ay. Median asking prices over the year to Q1 2012 w ere dow n by 24 .2% w ith substantial declines recorded in every location except in Kerry (-5 .9 % ) and Donegal (-7 .4 % ). Prices w ere unchanged in Carlow compared w ith a year previously.

MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2012 | 13


U rb an spotlight

Median asking prices continued to decline across the main urban areas

Median asking prices continued to decline across the main urban areas. The q uarterly decline w as modest in Dublin South (-1.7 % ) and Dublin N orth (-2% ). The largest q uarterly decline w as in Dublin’s South City at 19 .5 % , although this probably reflects a reduction in the number of properties priced at a very high level. G alw ay City had the third highest median price across the urban areas in the chart below. Prices there fell by 4 .4 % in the q uarter and by 10% in the year. The median price in Limerick City w as €17 0,000, w hich w as higher than the median price in Dublin’s N orth City ( €14 5 ,000). The annual decline w as strongest overall in Dublin’s South City: -27 .5 % compared w ith -15 .9 % in Dublin’s N orth City.

“The largest q uarterly decline w as in Dublin’s South City at 19 .5 % , although this probably reflects a reduction in the number of properties prices at a very high level.”

MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2012 | 14


Trends in median asking prices in the main urban areas, Q1 2012

% change since peak

Median price â‚Ź

Quarterly % change

Dublin N orth City

14 5 ,000

-3 .0%

-15 .9 %

-6 3 .3 %

Limerick City

17 0,000

-5 .6 %

-12.8 %

-4 0.4 %

W aterford City

17 1,000

-7 .6 %

13 .6 %

4 7 .1%

Dublin South City

17 5 ,000

-19 .5 %

-27 .5 %

-5 8 .8 %

Dublin W est

18 7 ,000

-6 .5 %

-18 .3 %

-4 9 .3 %

Cork City

210,000

-6 .7 %

-14 .3 %

-4 4 .7 %

G alw ay City

215 ,000

-4 .4 %

-10.0%

-5 2.2%

Dublin N orth

24 0,000

-2.0%

-9 .4 %

-4 7 .3 %

Dublin South

29 5 ,000

-1.7 %

-15 .5 %

-4 9 .1%

Limerick (All)

18 5 ,000

-5 .1%

-7 .5 %

-3 7 .3 %

W aterford (All)

19 7 ,5 00

-10.2%

-13 .8 %

-4 3 .6 %

Cork (All)

209 ,9 7 5

-6 .7 %

-14 .3 %

-4 2.5 %

G alw ay (All)

215 ,000

-12.2%

-14 .0%

-3 9 .9 %

Dublin (All)

25 0,000

-3 .8 %

-12.3 %

-4 7 .4 %

Annual % change

MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2012 | 15


Ab out the R eport

INDICES

Q3 2006

Q4 2006

Q1 2007

Q2 2007 Q3 2007

Q4 2007 Q1 2008

Q2 2008

Q3 2008

Q4 2008

Q1 2009

Q2 2009

National

136.82

138.57

138.16

137.57

136.58

136.30

134.35

132.29

125.80

122.08

114.59

112.90

Dublin

139.62

139.24

138.89

138.80

136.50

134.64

132.90

130.23

123.81

118.40

109.58

107.03

New

133.92

134.67

135.91

137.85

137.37

136.16

134.13

131.68

128.00

124.59

114.83

114.14

2nd Hand

137.28

139.23

138.60

137.59

136.59

136.43

134.50

132.50

125.60

121.84

114.50

112.69

% Change

Q3 2006

Q4 2006

Q1 2007

Q2 2007

Q3 2007

Q4 2007 Q1 2008

Q2 2008

Q3 2008

Q4 2008

Q1 2009 Q2 2009

National

2.96%

1.28%

-0.30%

-0.43%

-0.72%

-0.21%

-1.43%

-1.53%

-4.91%

-2.96%

-6.13%

-1.48%

Dublin

1.08%

-0.28%

-0.25%

-0.06%

-1.66%

-1.36%

-1.29%

-2.01%

-4.93%

-4.37%

-7.44%

-2.33%

New

5.42%

0.56%

0.92%

1.43%

-0.35%

-0.88%

-1.49%

-1.83%

-2.79%

-2.66%

-7.83%

-0.61%

2nd Hand

2.52%

1.42%

-0.46%

-0.73%

-0.73%

-0.12%

-1.42%

-1.48%

-5.21%

-3.00%

-6.02%

-1.59%

Standard Price

Q3 2006

Q4 2006

Q1 2007

Q2 2007

Q3 2007

Q4 2007 Q1 2008

Q2 2008

Q3 2008

Q4 2008

Q1 2009 Q2 2009

National

409124

414374

413133

411373

408420

407565

401739

395597

376180

365057

342666

337603

Dublin

534124

532642

531320

530979

522157

515053

508397

498194

473612

452921

419205

409448

New

358721

360714

364039

369248

367959

364713

359268

352707

342850

333730

307590

305716

2nd Hand

417065

422990

421055

418002

414966

414468

408598

402545

381578

370139

347857

342343

MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2012 | 16


Asking prices versus Transactions prices

During the boom period when prices (and incomes) were rising and the number of buyers exceeded the number of sellers, transactions prices would have been significantly higher than asking prices, whereas now in recessionary times, asking prices are typically what vendors aspire to. As the market has adjusted downwards over the past four years and transactions have plummeted, asking prices have also had to adjust downwards. In today’s market characterised by oversupply in some locations and a lack of mortgage finance, transactions prices tend to be below asking prices as what buyers are willing to pay or can afford is much lower now than during the boom years. The gap should narrow, however, as sellers become more realistic and as the demand/supply balance is addressed.

MyHome.ie Property Barometer: T he Method The trends presented in this report are based on actual asking prices of properties advertised on MyHome.ie w ith comparisons by q uarter over the last eight years. This represents the majority of properties for sale in Ireland from leading estate agents nationw ide.

w idely-used regression techniq ue w hich adjusts for change in the mixture of properties for sale in each q uarter. Since the supply of property in each q uarter has a different combination of types, sizes and locations, the real trends in property prices are easily obscured.

The series in this report have been produced using a combination of statistical techniq ues. O ur data is collected from q uarterly snapshots of active, available properties on MyHome.ie.

O ur method is designed to reflect price change independent of this variation in mix.

O ur main indices have been constructed w ith a

For detailed statistics at the local level, w e also provide a w ide selection of median asking prices broken dow n by county or by urban location.

N ex t MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q2 2012

INDICES

Q3 2009

Q4 2009

Q1 2010

Q2 2010

Q3 2010

Q4 2010

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

National

108.08

104.25

100.81

97.41

93.63

90.59

86.86

83.40

80.71

78.80

73.14

Dublin

100.90

96.76

92.97

88.77

84.95

82.07

78.94

74.82

72.01

70.02

64.74

New

110.07

105.95

101.34

97.01

95.15

91.88

88.40

87.88

86.59

85.80

83.26

2nd Hand

107.74

104.02

100.65

97.32

93.28

90.33

86.61

82.91

80.15

78.17

72.47

% Change

Q3 2009

Q4 2009

Q1 2010

Q2 2010

Q3 2010

Q4 2010

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

National

-4.27%

-3.54%

-3.30%

-3.37%

-3.88%

-3.24%

-4.11%

-3.99%

-3.23%

-2.36%

-7.19%

Dublin

-5.73%

-4.11%

-3.91%

-4.52%

-4.30%

-3.39%

-3.82%

-5.22%

-3.76%

-2.76%

-7.54%

New

-3.56%

-3.74%

-4.35%

-4.27%

-1.91%

-3.44%

-3.79%

-0.58%

-1.48%

-0.91%

-2.96%

2nd Hand

-4.39%

-3.45%

-3.24%

-3.31%

-4.15%

-3.16%

-4.12%

-4.27%

-3.34%

-2.47%

-7.29%

Standard Price

Q3 2009

Q4 2009

Q1 2010

Q2 2010

Q3 2010

Q4 2010

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

National

323180

311727

301449

291278

279970

270886

259745

249385

241334

235642

218705

Dublin

3859a93

370137

355657

339598

324985

313965

301984

286227

275478

267865

247676

New

294835

283795

271437

259845

254871

246108

236780

235400

231923

229809

223009

2nd Hand

327321

316019

305767

295657

283395

274429

263127

251893

243483

237474

220173

MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2012 | 17


Market Analysis Annette Hughes Annette.Hughes@dkm.ie

Data Analysis G raham N eary nearyg@gmail.com

Layout & Design James Rogers james@myhome.ie

Copyright Š MyHome.ie


MyHome.ie Barometer Q1 draft 1  

MyHome Barometer 2012

Advertisement
Read more
Read more
Similar to
Popular now
Just for you