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Facts & Figures Macroeconomic data

buon andamento della domanda interna, che riflette l’invecchiamento della popolazione italiana, l’aumento dei flussi migratori e l’innalzamento degli standard di vita, sia dalla positiva evoluzione delle esportazioni. Lusinghiere anche le previsioni per il 2008 (+2%). • Cosmesi e profumeria -L’attività produttiva del 2007, secondo una prima valutazione sulla base dell’ultimo report congiunturale di Unipro, dovrebbe segnare una crescita dell’1,5% in termini di volumi e del 3,3% di fatturato. A guidare la ripresa ha contribuito in maniera sensibile l’esportazione. Analogo trend è previsto per il 2008, con un peso delle esportazioni ancora maggiore.

• Prodotti per l’edilizia -Questo comparto comprende cemento, calce, laterizi, vetro piano, tondo per cemento armato, piastrelle ecc. Come è ovvio, l’attività di questi settori è strettamente legata all’attività edilizia in Italia. Dopo un lungo periodo di espansione, a partire dalla seconda metà del 2007 l’edilizia ha subito un progressivo rallentamento. Nel 2007 la crescita è stata contenuta all’1,3% , e pare che quest’anno si ridimensionerà ulteriormente all’1%. ■

A glimpse at 2008 - The forecasts for the year underway (still according to Prometeia’s evaluations) show a slowdown in the growth of production in the manufacturing industry (+1%) due to a drop in growth of domestic demand (+1.1 %) what is more not compensated for in the run of exports (+3%). According to the main economic indicators drawn up by the Confindustria Study Centre, the GNP for 2007 should be confirmed at 1.7% against the 1.9% of 2006; for 2008 growth should be down to 1%. After having concluded 2007 with an increase of 1.8% (1.5% in 2006), family consumption for 2008 should be at +1.4%. The average inflation in 2007 marked a rate of 1.8% (though over the last two months the rate was 2.6%), after a 2006 at 2.1%. For 2008 forecasts put it at 2.2%. Global uncertainty - Indeed the good forecasts for 2008 for the moment are not coming to pass; soaring petrol prices (up to 100 dollars a barrel at the beginning of 2008 are increasing the uncertainties besetting year at hand, and should affect things for some time to come. On this count, as far as the international commodity prices are concerned, (expressed in dollars) 2007 saw a 17.3% increase, and 2008 should feature the same growth figures. Hence it would not be hazardous to say that this year we will be “under the sword of Damocles” due to three unknown quantities: soaring petrol prices, the plunging US dollar and recession in the USA (the prime American indicators already showing the first symptoms). These three negative phenomena could mean for Italy a drop in the GNP forecast from 1% (in itself a limited growth) down to as little as 0.5%.

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• Prodotti chimici -Il 2007, secondo valutazioni di Federchimica, è stato buono (+1,9%) ma con valori di crescita inferiori a quelli registrati nel2006. In particolare, si segnalano i seguenti dati: chimica di base +3,1%; fertilizzanti +1,5%; pitture e adesivi +2,4%; agrofarmaci +1%; detergenti e prodotti per la casa +1,5%; fibre chimiche -15%; plastiche +3%; intermedi di chimica fine +1,5%. Le ipotesi per il 2008 indicano un incremento complessivo ridimensionato all’1,1%.

• Arredamento domestico (mobili ed elettrodomestici) -La produzione di mobili ha chiuso il 2007 in rialzo, grazie al migliore andamento della domanda interna e (soprattutto) estera. Anche per gli elettrodomestici la domanda è cresciuta oltre le attese, ma la produzione si è confermata in flessione per effetto sia della delocalizzazione in atto, sia per l’aumento delle importazioni; in ulteriore calo, invece, le esportazioni. Nel complesso, questa vasta area di mercato (mobili + elettrodomestici) ha chiuso il 2007 con un incremento dell’1,1% circa (-1,7% gli elettrodomestici, +3% i mobili). Le previsioni per il 2008 descrivono un andamento simile a quello del 2007, ossia +1/1,2% (in ulteriore lieve calo gli elettrodomestici, in crescita i mobili).

The last estimate made by Prometeia regarding the run of the Italian manufacturing industry in 2007 highlights a growth in production standing at 1.3% at constant prices (2.2% in 2006). As far as demand is concerned, exports are up 2.5% and domestic demand by 1.7%. Prometeia also sees positive signs of a slight competitive improvement of Italian industry, that seems to have also spread to the small concerns after a long period of difficulty.

closure of 2007, when an increase in production of 1.9% was put in. This figure derives from the good run of domestic demand, that reflects the aging of the Italia population, the increase in the migratory flows and the raising of the standard of living, as well as the uptrend in exports. Flattering the forecasts for 2008 (+2%).

• Cosmetics and perfumery According to a first rating on the basis of the latest Unipro general market report, production in 2007 should register a growth of 1.5% in terms of volumes and 3.3% in turnover. Exports have contributed sizeably in spurring on the recovery.

2008 should show a similar trend, with exports taking an even greater weight.

• Chemical products -According to Federchimica ratings 2007 was a good year (+1.9%) though growthrates were lower than those of 2006. In particular, the following figures feature: basic chemistry +3.1%; fertilizers +1.5%; lacquer and adhesives +2.4%; agropharmaceutical +1%; detergents and household products +1.5%; chemical fibres -15%; plastics +3%; fine chemical intermediaries +1.5%. forecasts for 2008 indicate an overall increase reduced down to 1.1%.

• Household furnishing (furniture and household appliances) Furniture production closed 2007 on the up, thanks to a better run of domestic and (aboveall) foreign demand. For the household appliances demand was also over the expected, but production was confirmed as down both due to the effects of the delocalisation underway, as well as for the increase in imports; exports are seen to be down even further. Overall, this vast area of the market (furniture + household appliances) closed 2007 with an increase of around 1.1% (household appliances -1.7%, furniture +3%). Forecasts for 2008 describe a run

similar to that of 2007, or that is +1/1.2% (a further slight drop for household appliances, while furniture should put in an increase).

• Products for the building industry -This segment comprises cement, lime, bricks, flat glass, rods for reinforced concrete, tiles etc. As is obvious, the activity of these sectors is strictly linked to building activity in Italy. After a long period of expansion, starting off from the second half of 2007 building has slowed down progressively. In 2007 growth was down to 1.3%, and it appears that this year it will be down further to 1%. ■

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Italia Imballaggio 03_08  

ItaliaImballaggio: rivista per gli utlizzatori e produttori di materiali, macchine, attrezzature e componenti per l'imballaggio (Marzo 2008)