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LAMORINDA Q2 2018 MARKET UPDATE Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

MARTIN HOMES TEAM CHANGING HOUSES TO HOMES

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LAMORINDA Q2 2018 MARKET UPDATE Below is a summary of Multiple Listing Service (“MLS”) data for Lamorinda residential detached home sales over the last twelve months from July 2017 to June 2018 (the prioryear comparison is from July 2016 to June 2017). In summary: •

• • •

Our real estate market remains strong - The late Spring market delivered record figures for most of Lamorinda. Lamorinda average sales price is now $1.60M, up 4%, average sales price per square foot is $627, up 4%, and average days on market is down 6% to only 24 days Lafayette continues to outpace both Moraga and Orinda - Lafayette’s average sales price is now $1.64M and average sales price per square foot is $658, up 6%. Average sales price per square foot is $569, up 2% for Moraga and $626, up 3% for Orinda Smaller size homes experienced the largest gains - Average sales price per square foot is up 5% for homes < 1,500 sqft and 7% for homes between 1,501–2,500 sqft Larger, higher priced homes are showing signs of softening - Average sales price per square foot is down 4% for homes > 3,500 sqft. This trend is more concentrated on homes priced $3.0M and above. Rising mortgage rates and the impact of the New Tax Plan, where real estate taxes for most Lamorinda homeowners are no longer deductible, are increasing the switching costs for move-up buyers that previously locked-in a historical low mortgage rate and have a $1M tax basis on their existing home

The following pages provide further details and breaks down the numbers by home size.

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Lamorinda

Lamorinda, CA Detached Residential Transactions Jul '17 - Jun '18

< 1,501 SQFT

Home Size # of Transactions

1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

58

331

218

128

735

$1,021,071 $1,365,000 $571,000

$1,298,962 $2,200,000 $650,000

$1,733,424 $3,340,000 $801,000

$2,394,348 $6,500,000 $1,210,000

$1,596,655 $6,500,000 $571,000

$807 $1,209 $489

$655 $1,125 $367

$584 $1,049 $316

$547 $1,071 $295

$627 $1,209 $295

13 64 0

18 276 0

26 187 0

42 336 0

24 336 0

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Home Size

Change From Prior 12-Months (Jul '17 - Jun '18 vs. Jul '16 - Jun '17) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

# of Transactions

Total

26.1%

5.4%

19.1%

16.4%

12.6%

4.1% 9.2% -10.1%

4.8% -0.9% -10.3%

3.8% 23.7% 6.8%

-0.5% 3.2% 0.9%

3.8% 3.2% -10.1%

4.9% 23.1% 2.8%

7.3% 13.1% 8.0%

2.1% 21.7% 9.9%

-3.8% 2.6% 1.1%

3.9% 15.8% 2.5%

-16.2% 0.0% NA

-5.6% 12.7% NA

-11.4% -20.1% NA

-3.0% 63.1% NA

-6.3% 37.1% NA

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Home Size # of Transactions

Jul '16 - Jun '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT < 1,501 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

46

314

183

110

653

$980,391 $1,250,000 $635,000

$1,240,033 $2,220,000 $725,000

$1,669,834 $2,700,000 $750,000

$2,405,383 $6,300,000 $1,199,000

$1,538,499 $6,300,000 $635,000

$769 $982 $476

$610 $994 $340

$572 $862 $287

$568 $1,044 $292

$604 $1,044 $287

16 64 0

19 245 0

30 234 0

43 206 0

26 245 0

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Source: MLS

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

MartinHomesTeam.com

1 of 4


Lafayette

Lafayette, CA Detached Residential Transactions Jul '17 - Jun '18

< 1,501 SQFT

Home Size # of Transactions

1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

34

135

77

63

309

$1,040,868 $1,349,000 $675,000

$1,338,092 $2,200,000 $812,000

$1,767,828 $2,875,000 $801,000

$2,466,947 $6,500,000 $1,375,000

$1,642,629 $6,500,000 $675,000

$850 $1,209 $565

$692 $1,125 $420

$594 $934 $316

$558 $1,071 $295

$658 $1,209 $295

15 64 3

17 94 0

23 143 0

37 336 0

22 336 0

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Home Size

Change From Prior 12-Months (Jul '17 - Jun '18 vs. Jul '16 - Jun '17) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

# of Transactions

Total

21.4%

7.1%

4.1%

21.2%

10.4%

6.5% 7.9% 6.3%

10.8% 0.0% 5.1%

3.0% 6.5% -5.8%

-3.0% 3.2% -1.8%

4.8% 3.2% 6.3%

8.5% 24.5% 6.8%

12.2% 13.1% 23.6%

1.9% 8.3% 9.9%

-5.4% 2.6% -14.2%

6.2% 15.8% 2.5%

-5.7% 10.3% NA

-6.7% -19.0% NA

-27.6% -38.9% NA

-7.5% 79.7% NA

-12.5% 43.6% NA

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Home Size # of Transactions

Jul '16 - Jun '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT < 1,501 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

28

126

74

52

280

$977,018 $1,250,000 $635,000

$1,207,497 $2,200,000 $772,650

$1,715,989 $2,700,000 $850,000

$2,543,487 $6,300,000 $1,400,000

$1,566,949 $6,300,000 $635,000

$783 $971 $529

$616 $994 $340

$583 $862 $287

$590 $1,044 $343

$619 $1,044 $287

16 58 0

18 116 0

31 234 0

40 187 0

25 234 0

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Source: MLS

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

MartinHomesTeam.com

2 of 4


Moraga

Moraga, CA Detached Residential Transactions Jul '17 - Jun '18

< 1,501 SQFT

Home Size # of Transactions

1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

4

80

62

14

160

$900,250 $1,125,000 $571,000

$1,244,256 $1,875,000 $828,000

$1,618,946 $2,200,000 $1,050,000

$1,912,570 $2,800,000 $1,375,000

$1,439,326 $2,800,000 $571,000

$647 $789 $489

$604 $830 $434

$546 $695 $333

$452 $531 $376

$569 $830 $333

11 17 8

15 129 0

27 126 0

33 159 0

21 159 0

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Home Size

Change From Prior 12-Months (Jul '17 - Jun '18 vs. Jul '16 - Jun '17) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

# of Transactions

Total

0.0%

2.6%

77.1%

40.0%

26.0%

-2.1% 8.7% -16.6%

3.7% 11.6% 14.2%

4.7% -17.0% -4.5%

6.3% 1.8% 14.7%

7.9% 1.8% -16.6%

-1.0% 8.1% 2.8%

3.9% 7.3% 14.3%

0.9% -9.5% -17.8%

6.3% -4.2% 28.8%

1.6% 7.3% 14.1%

-8.7% 13.3% NA

-33.3% -47.3% NA

-22.6% -20.3% NA

-48.7% -22.8% NA

-27.1% -35.1% NA

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Home Size # of Transactions

Jul '16 - Jun '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT < 1,501 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

4

78

35

10

127

$920,000 $1,035,000 $685,000

$1,199,321 $1,680,000 $725,000

$1,546,897 $2,650,000 $1,100,000

$1,799,900 $2,750,000 $1,199,000

$1,333,602 $2,750,000 $685,000

$654 $730 $476

$581 $774 $380

$541 $768 $404

$425 $554 $292

$560 $774 $292

12 15 8

23 245 0

35 158 0

64 206 0

29 245 0

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Source: MLS

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

MartinHomesTeam.com

3 of 4


Orinda

Orinda, CA Detached Residential Transactions Jul '17 - Jun '18

< 1,501 SQFT

Home Size # of Transactions

1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

20

116

79

51

266

$1,011,582 $1,365,000 $706,500

$1,291,151 $1,850,000 $650,000

$1,789,733 $3,340,000 $1,025,000

$2,436,919 $4,250,000 $1,210,000

$1,637,883 $4,250,000 $650,000

$766 $1,007 $592

$647 $907 $367

$605 $1,049 $359

$558 $909 $305

$626 $1,049 $305

11 25 0

21 276 0

29 187 0

51 294 0

28 294 0

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Home Size

Change From Prior 12-Months (Jul '17 - Jun '18 vs. Jul '16 - Jun '17) 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

# of Transactions

Total

42.9%

5.5%

6.8%

6.3%

8.1%

0.7% 12.8% -2.6%

-1.1% -16.7% -24.4%

6.4% 29.0% 36.7%

2.3% 9.0% -3.2%

1.6% 9.0% -10.3%

-1.1% 2.6% -5.1%

3.8% -0.5% -11.2%

5.0% 32.5% 23.6%

-2.8% 6.1% -12.5%

3.0% 6.8% 5.0%

-36.0% -60.9% NA

20.5% 81.6% NA

14.1% 62.6% NA

19.1% 79.3% NA

14.6% 79.3% NA

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Home Size # of Transactions

Jul '16 - Jun '17 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT < 1,501 SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

14

110

74

48

246

$1,004,392 $1,210,000 $725,000

$1,306,170 $2,220,000 $860,000

$1,681,826 $2,590,000 $750,000

$2,381,912 $3,900,000 $1,250,000

$1,611,899 $3,900,000 $725,000

$774 $982 $624

$624 $911 $413

$577 $792 $290

$574 $857 $348

$608 $982 $290

17 64 0

18 152 0

26 115 0

42 164 0

25 164 0

Sales Price Average High Low

Sales Price Per SQFT Average High Low

Days on MLS Average High Low

Source: MLS

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

MartinHomesTeam.com

4 of 4


HISTORICAL BAY AREA & LAMORINDA MARKET PERFORMANCE It is helpful to provide historical context to our real estate market to understand past cycles and how Lamorinda faired compared to the rest of the Bay Area. Each cycle always has different market influences and therefore makes pinpointing the exact timing of when cycles begin and end very difficult. Even during bubble or irrational exuberance periods markets can run well beyond what market experts believe is rational. An example is the 2008-9 Financial Crisis caused by early 2000’s lax underwriting mortgage standards that allowed housing prices to skyrocket from zero-down and negative amortization loans. Most economists in 2003-4 believed homes were overvalued but values continued to rise another three to four years until 2007-8. Over the last thirty plus years Bay Area real estate markets were not only influenced by the health of our macro economy but also heavily influenced by Bay Area high-tech sector. Innovation creates new markets that translate into wealth creation that propels the growth of our real estate markets. The Silicon Valley influence today extends well beyond the Peninsula. In recent years the run up in Lamorinda home prices has been fueled by “newtech” companies headquartered in San Francisco such as Uber, Airbnb, Lyft, Pinterest, Salesforce, Twitter, Dropbox and Square where previously the lengthy commute to the Silicon Valley prohibited Lamorinda from being a viable option to most tech workers. The following page provides a historical perspective of past cycles and how Lamorinda price appreciation compares to the rest of the Bay Area.

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Historical Bay Area Home Values 500%

450%

400%

350%

300%

250%

Over the last 30+ years in the Bay Area expansionary periods have averaged 7 years while contractionary periods have averaged 2-3 years

+85% 9 yrs

+57% 5 yrs

-28%

200%

2 yrs

100%

Financial Crisis

-11%

150%

1 yr

+110%

SF Earthquake

7 yrs

Dotcom Bubble

50%

-12%

90's Recession

4 yrs

0%

Source: Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index

Historical Lamorinda Home Values 300%

250%

200%

150%

+85% 9 yrs

Compared to high-end Bay Area homes prices since 1997, Lafayette outperformed the market, Orinda is at market while Moraga underperformed the market

-28%

+57% 5 yrs

50%

-11% 1 yr

0%

225% 224% 20 0 %

Financial Crisis

2 yrs 100%

240 %

Dotcom Bubble

Source: Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index / MLS

0%

Bay Area

Lafayette

Orinda

Moraga

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Lafayette, CA

Erin Martin

Darrick Martin

925.951.3817 Erin@MartinHomesTeam.com MartinHomesTeam.com CalBRE#01922810

925.900.8218 Darrick@MartinHomesTeam.com MartinHomesTeam.com CalBRE#02006564

Lafayette, CA

MartinHomesTeam.com

Lamorinda Q2 2018 Market Update  

See details by home size for each of Lafayette, Moraga & Orinda for sales price, price per SQFT & days on market

Lamorinda Q2 2018 Market Update  

See details by home size for each of Lafayette, Moraga & Orinda for sales price, price per SQFT & days on market