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CUNY William E. Macaulay Honors College ​and we've got to watch cleaners from ETF welcome thank you I started hitting Danny um his favorite word my speech or ever yes I picked that and I picked a theme s way and load shedding hmm it's going to be it's a problem has proved to be a problem some of the data that has come out and they're factoring it into uncertainty in exports because you can't say that you're going to export this my chakra me to a certain figure if you don't know how much you're going to produce so those however and the theme in in loadshedding as a problem for this economy both for consumers for businesses what your meter to say whether also for investors the perception about South Africa as a favorite destination for investment we can get that basic thing right it's a problem for foreign investors it's a problem for us as people who have commitments to fill up orders if you don't know where that's going to be two and half hours this week or the system is stable the whole week you'll be producing so I think for me that that was a PA theme that that came up and the fact that because of that you won't be fully able to take advantage of other factors that are favored in this economy we have seen a malaysian food prices which has record into impatient we have seen a moderation in transport inflation coming from the lower oil price the rent remains sensitive to perceptions about suffer particular about law chillin among other things so for me that was a theme that came out in am happy that the governor put an emphasis on that George the big but for you know I think you know if anything he he went to and fro so many times you mentioned the word however I mean the point to take out of that is that they had so much to discuss so much to deliberate it almost proves to a person are impossibly difficult it is to plan an interest rate in a way that central banks do these days so you know when you consider oil prices through to this inflation around the world you've got wars in some parts of the world you've got changes in government in others you've got manipulated exchange rates in some quarters and in others free-floating or moving to free-floating as happen in Switzerland it there's just so much to assimilate on top of which you've got domestic factors such as your load shedding such as our own labor market issues and structural rigidities you know any ask yourself harm it is it possible for a team of it doesn't matter how big because we can see quite clearly from the forecast that they're produced in December no one foresaw the oil price drop them off in the way that it did and yet there is really no one on the player and engine and they're expected to make pronouncements on interest rates now things have changed dramatically I think they're going to be behind the curve on this one so I think what's happened in the oil prices is a lot more rigid than then I think they perceive it to be but but be that as it may I think that will unfold through the course the next couple of quarters but for them to take these decisions there was so much to take into consideration lyst Anna I think they just SAT back and thought will the best thing to do the assignments to take into consideration is actually just do nothing and let's just watch the chips fall as they may do you agree that there's too much risk in the system there is risk in the system definitely some of which the governor has highlighted while he does speak of risk being unbalanced I do think that this risk for South Africa itself going for the domestic factors and we hope that a labour unrest has and said as has settled we're not going to have that going forward you might remember that part of the reason why growth was load drastically from the initial focus both by treasure and the MPC practically had to do with the protractor strike in the Minnesota in the manufacturing sector it's true ilyas LEDs now to tell whether that's going to be effective or not going forward I don't have I don't think there's an issue in fire and so far as domestic demand is concerned that putting pressure on efficient because I believe that demand is going to remain weak and we have a household sector which is highly indebted which doesn't have any savings to fall back on truth dare to pump up expenditure so I don't think there's any risk coming from the domestic side went from the international side while they didn't foresee the drop in oil prices I think what is going to bother them is their the volatility of the rain so there is risk in the system to me it sounds like wires Europe has to worry about deflation Japan continuously so we have to now start worrying about this inflation yeah I don't think there's anything to worry about to be honest now you know quite honestly if I had if I had a choice I'd prefer to have a lower price increases going forward then then higher price increases to my mind low inflation is not a problem at all in fact it would assist matters a great deal that price stability is something everybody strives for it's extremely difficult to to generate when you've got credit systems that aren't sometimes presided over by the central banks in the manner that they should and and when there's too much data in the system you can see what the effects of that can sometimes be you get things like this dis inflation and deflation in some parts of the world because quite honestly it was unsustainable to begin with and that's the problem with a lot of this central bank activity that we've seen and this isn't something new it's been going on for


for many many years now I would argue that it's part of the reason why we landed up in the crisis in the first place all there to say that low interest rates in and of themselves are not going to fix this problem the problems are structural and they relate very primarily to date and and we need to be tackling issues of debt if we're going to tackle a stable and look for a stable price environment long-term let me interrupt you there in Austin Danny do you think a cut would have helped us out considering which is really hard certainly always helps in the sense that is easier to borrow in prisoner bleep or business as going to borrow to invest and build up capacity for the future but you have to remember that in this economy we already don't have enough savings so it's good for those who are in debt and those who are hoping to Bowman in order to invest but for people who rely on capital income flowing in from savings in the contour of the problem yes that the majority of the population will benefit but my problem with that as an incentive for say consumer suspend mode we already rely too much on credit to finance exponential current expenditure so the high debt levels are not going to come down because interest rates have been cut with net several cars and you still over seventy percent as percentage of the household disposable income the problem is if you're not going to address some of the issues like creating real employment increasing household disposable income sustainably you're going to have those high debt levels so for me for this meeting I don't think they should cut even if interest rate law remains low for the rest of they I'm not my cut okay we'll revisit that after the break don't go away people we are getting there and thanks to you parties said to become our conscious 12 official language hahaha yesterday's word since titude replacing a drinking buddy with somebody more fun ah that's more like it pubmed party south africa's 12 official language signed the petition today I've got a close cut Hawkins your world on sabc news channel 404 I'm taba llamando and I'm villiger boon president uhuru kenyatta says he will attend the states as conference for his crimes against humanity case but in his personal capacity and not as president of Kenya judges insist he attends this status conference about 50 Kenyan MPs are expected to travel to the Hague to express solidarity with President Kenyatta the Kenya cases have really tested the International Criminal Court in ways that it hasn't yet been tested your world weekdays at 9pm welcome back well the Embassy's decided to keep interest rates where they were so let's find out some more about the decision is rattled of a lot of numbers when he was speaking was it actually necessary I'm thinking about our viewers you have so many percentages and it just goes over your head if you were to sum it up in two sentences what would you say in two sentences inflation is going to be dropping before it stabilizer maybe goes back up and growth is going to remain constrained because of the those are the two sentences so they are they there are very sensitive to to the growth and employment dynamics and therefore they're keeping rates unchanged I mean that's the NPC statement summed up in two sentences for me do you agree yeah I agree and but I also feel that in terms of keeping recent changes I said la says the right decision for this meeting and part of the stimulus hopefully that might start filtering through to consumer pockets is the fact that despite a we claimed the low oil prices are resulting in some real cash in consumer saving which they can you sue to deuce householders and stimulate spending so to speak I do think that my tape from this emphasis that growth is going to remain subdued I don't see employment and unemployment rate coming down in the near future so we should really rather use the stable interest rate environment in the short time to plan appropriately for bliss business support growth going forward how that pans out practically is hard to say but I mean for me it's the muted growth rates going forward that is of a great concern is it going to become even more muted once Janet Yellen raises her rights if she raises her rights you know this big question marks about that we very firmly believe that the starter liquidity environment and some of the headwinds that are happening around the world is going to limit the scope and the extent to which the the Fed is able to normalize the interest rates if they can at all so ready we've seen what do you mean if they can but if they can I mean you know we focus on a lot of the numbers in the here and now so there's a lot of focus on how strong quarter for growth was and that's the project that's the that's exactly the point it's the past you know I would raise I would raise serious questions about whether they would follow through with with a hike if they saw some of the numbers starting to lose momentum or in fact even softening slightly as we go into the second quarter of this year that could very well postpone that decision until quarter three then the numbers continue to lose a little bit of momentum lose some of their last and they push it out to quarter for and so this this is this is what I'm anticipating is going to happen if they do hack I think it's going to be possibly one interest rate hike maybe to just keep the markets you know and appreciating that they are doing their best to try and normalize policy but I I don't know that that policy stance is going to be sustained when your global economy and in fact your your US economy has become so entrenched in requiring plentiful liquidity and ultra-low interest rates to be able to generate the kind of growth that it has turned only let's go back to all these numbers there's sheer amount what percentages that he quoted yeah kind of suggests to me that the MPC itself has got nuclear and they are they are really grappling in the dark here and it seems that they decided to just let's let's hold off guys if you distill the numbers on time see each octopod factors that they think are going to impact or ought to have an impact on


the decision yes and I think they were taken aback by this direction I think when they left in December as you pointed out earlier they didn't foresee that drop in enterprise nor did any other person that I of now globally so it's not the MPC only so they didn't foresee that but the numbers that they have the statistics that they have they look at it as building up to a decision you look at the short-term indicators manufacturing retail or whatever whatever is going to build up to the GDP level whatever influences household spending whatever influences influences when you listen to all those things it becomes too much better for me if they were to distill the fact that we think that GDP is going to be influenced by lower manufacturing a bit a bit of an improvement in mind instead of saying it was 5.75 now it's going to be 4.28 it becomes confusing but all those data and it's heading to a directional either saying domestic growth is going to be a problem we're going to have a problem in domestic demand heating up inflation those heights high volatility indicators just licking attack on their own and yes I agree they don't seem to add value but now you see the irony is that the one number that he should have kept giving us we left off yes the locus for the way price yeah how do you make of it and I think they were taken aback they are scrambling like everybody else and rejigging their model georg agricola yeah well I think it shows the futility of forecasting and relying too much on forecast to generate economic policy I think this is part of the problem is that we we don't necessarily understand manner to dynamics well enough and I think more work needs to be done on that front I think we place far too much emphasis on things like inflation expectations when a lot of the time inflation expectations are more informed by what's happening currently than they are necessarily an accurate reflection of where inflation is going to go for example we know and he mentioned any speech that inflation is going to be dropping to three point five percent yet he was talking about some inflation expectations of a 5.9 average for the year which clearly tells me they polled an economist that hadn't updated their for cost because there's no economist that I know that that's looking at an average rate that high given what's happened to the oil price and so you know this there's a lot I have a problem with in a way that monetary policy gets conducted with generally not just in South Africa 10 it's a global issue and the fact that we run our son match on these econometric models to to generate us this this crystal ball this beautiful look through that apparently answers all questions and clearly it doesn't and we get caught out repeatedly when perhaps there's the the other ways of being able to manage monetary policy that that don't rely on a plethora of numbers like as you as you quite rightly mentioned there's the so many data in here that that tries to remember it around here and bear in mind we work with the stuff it's difficult enough never mind for the men on the street so I think there's this there's a message in there some way and that's that perhaps we we rely too much on econometric models okay well thank you for your time both we're out of it now so time to say goodbye to the viewers and well savers you didn't get what you want and I could have been nice for you and those of you who are paying off your debts you didn't get a cut either but at least things are still a little bit manageable so so that's it don't worry up too much about what the government said took care of your pocket State University of New York Downstate Medical Center.

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