Page 1


DANIELLE

Condo Law Office

Criminal Judge or Jury

2

280 Metcalfe Street Suite 201 D Ottawa, Ontario K2P 1R7

Civil Trials

Constitutional

280 Metcalfe Street Diane Marie Condo Suite 201 D Ottawa ,Ontario K2P 1R7

Appeals

613-563-1005 OFFICE 613-691-1360 FAX dianecondo@bell.net


DANIELLE

Publisher’s Message S

o here we are, our 3rd issue already out! And while this started as a pet project for a man who was looking to keep himself busy, since finding employment is not as easy to come by at my age, things have certainly turned out rather well so far. The enormous support and encouragement from people have been nothing short of humbling. Without this support we could not have gotten this far. Thank you. Our web site is gathering attention, our news stories are making people take notice of the other side of the coin when it comes to news. This way we can offer people a choice in content. For as Solomon once said: “The first to plead his case seems right, Until another comes and examines him”. It is our earnest hope to get people better informed as to our socio-geo economic realities. Since in knowing what is actually going on in the world or in Canada depends largely on one’s perception of events or how news is written up.. Of course anyone familiar with our publication will easily understand we are not quite ready to believe the propaganda that is so pervasive with large mega corporate news outlet. Which makes me often question the rationale in going forward with DANIELLE. For on the one hand, everything seems as “normal” and pleasant, while on the other hand, people are finding it “abnormal” as to what is actually going on. So go figure why one sees the glass half full while the others see it half empty. The mere

suggestion that this entails a positive or negative view of perspectives is shortsighted. Just the other day, I was fortunate enough to have coffee with a Member of Parliament at which time we were able to discuss various issues. But what struck me as unusual is the MP’s dismissal of the factual and perilous economic times we live in. In fact when discussing Bank of Canada statistics about how Canadians are highly leveraged and increasingly getting themselves more and more into debt, it was said “Canadians are actually one of the best credit worthy people in the world” because we consistently pay off of our debts! Essentially, it can also be said Canadians are worthy of debt because they are a good following people, easily manipulated by Central bank policies. So while it remains to see how long we shall be around. I truly hope and pray it can be to the times and epochs We at DANIELLE are warning about. For in our evaluation of timelines, without getting too specific, as to when this whole house of cards comes crashing down (We expect 2018 at the latest!). This means the financial system will crash and a possible world war 3 scenario comes to play out. Please get informed. The Trans Pacific Agreement will censor our news soon enough at which time it will become illegal to report anything but what the establishment wants. And that my friend, is where our society is heading for.

3


DANIELLE

Editor’s Picks

Canada’s Liberal government is considering joining the US-led ballistic missile defense Canada’s Liberal government is considering joining the US-led ballistic missile defense (BMD) system, reversing a decision taken 11 years ago by Paul Martin’s minority Liberal government. The reopening of the debate over Canadian participation in BMD was announced in the 30-page “consultation” document Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan issued last month to kick-off the Liberals’ muchtouted defence policy review. Noting that Canada has not discussed its attitude towards the US missile defence program in over a decade, the “consultation” document presents the issue in a manner aimed at promoting Canada’s participation. It states, “Given the increase in the number of countries with access to ballistic missile technology and their potential to reach North America, this threat is expected to endure and grow more sophisticated in the coming decades.” Its name notwithstanding, the US missile-defense system is anything but defensive. It is aimed at realizing US imperialism’s longstanding goal of developing the technological means to wage a “winnable” nuclear war—a strategic question that has been receiving growing attention in ruling circles in Washington in recent months.

4

Over the past decade, the US has spent some $100 billion on weapons to counter ballistic-missiles and it has partnered with NATO allies in Europe to station BMD equipment on that continent, as well as with Japan, South Korea and Australia in the AsiaPacific. Canada’s renewed readiness to sign up to this reckless initiative reflects its close integration with US imperialism– the most destabilizing force in world politics. Canada is a major ally in the Obama administration’s three major military-strategic offensives: in the Middle East, in Eastern Europe and the Baltic against Russia, and in the Asia-Pacific targeting China. As Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has repeatedly stated, a key priority of his government is to deepen CanadaUS cooperation. Toward that end, his government has announced a tripling of Canadian Special Forces’ troops in Iraq and is considering deploying Canada’s military in at least halfa-dozen other countries, including Libya, Mali, and Haiti. As with the Chretien Liberal government’s decision not to participate in the Bush administration’s 2003 invasion of Iraq, the rejection of missile defense two years later had nothing to do with opposition to US military aggression. The Martin Liberal

governmcombined its rejection of BMD with a budget that pledged to boost military spending by $13 billion over the next five years so as to demonstrate its commitment to an expanded and better-armed military. If Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin felt unable to approve Canadian participation in the US BMD program, it was because of the deep unpopularity of the Bush administration and the weak position of his Liberal Party, which was dependent on opposition support in parliament. Just a year later, Martin’s minority Liberal government was defeated in the 2006 federal election and replaced by Stephen Harper and his Conservatives. Nonetheless, the 2005 decision did create frictions. Bush waited over a week before returning a call placed by Martin to the White House to explain Ottawa’s refusal to join BMD, and the corporate media was overwhelmingly critical of the Liberals’ position. What support there was in the Canadian elite for Martin’s decision was bound up with right-wing Canadian nationalism, including the claim that the BMD program would violate the country’s sovereignty. In an April 25 comment, the Toronto Star’s Tim Harper notes that senior Canadian military officials have been lobbying to reverse the BMD decision virtually ever since the Martin


DANIELLE government’s 2005 announcement. A key factor in the Liberals’ determination to push forward with BMD is its intention to intensify cooperation with the US under the guise of “continental defence.” The defence policy review document also contains proposals to expand or “modernize” NORAD, the Canada-US joint aerospace command set up in 1958. Another significant consideration in the reopening of the missile defence debate is the increased focus in policymaking circles on the Arctic. The US and Canada have seized on Russian military operations on its domestic territory in the Arctic to present Moscow as an aggressive player in the region that must be confronted. A number of reports and comments, including a study by the Conference of Defence Associations and the defence policy review consultation paper itself, point to concerns over the supposed dearth of Canadian military equipment and personnel in the region. Canada’s full integration into the missile defence system would give it additional leverage in its moves to extend its territorial claims in the area around the North Pole, where it is directly being challenged by counterclaims from Russia. Fellow NATOmember Denmark has also submitted its own claim to a large swathe of the Arctic Ocean, based on its control of Greenland, including waters and ocean-floor coveted by Canada. While the Harper government was considering joining BMD prior to last year’s election, the ruling elite concluded that the increased militarization of Canadian foreign policy and its further integration into US war plans against Russia and China could best be prepared with a Liberal government seeking to sell this reactionary agenda to the public behind a wave of “progressive” rhetoric. Sections of the ruling elite are concerned that this will become much more difficult should Republican frontrunner Donald Trump enter the White House after the US election this

November. The Liberals were discussing plans to deepen ties with US imperialism long before coming to power. Last June, Trudeau delivered an important speech calling for “real change” in Canada-US relations. One of his central demands was greater continental policy coordination between Washington and Ottawa to better project their common interests on a range of issues. This topic has been raised again in the current debate. Proponents of Canada’s participation in BMD argue that the current situation in which Canadian Armed Forces’ personnel are active in NORAD, which is responsible for providing radar data to the BMD system, but have no say in how the missile defense system is positioned and used, is untenable and poses a grave danger to Canadian geopolitical interests.

in May 2014 that participation in BMD was essential to protecting Canada’s privileged military-security relationship with Washington. “It seems to me,” said Graham, “we’re outside of an extraordinarily complex and amazingly new form of a weapons system which will affect our security but which we are foreign to decisions around its development. I think that’s a dangerous place to be.”

Barely two weeks after the Liberals’ sweeping victory in the October 19 election, the Centre on International Policy Studies think-tank issued a report urging the new government to reverse the missile defense decision as part of its declared goal of “reengaging” Canada on the global stage. One of the report’s authors, Bob McRae, Canada’s former ambassador to NATO, provocatively proclaimed at a public forum held at the University of Ottawa as the study was released, “Splendid isolation is not an option for Canada.”

The New Democratic Party, which opposed joining in 2005 and described BMD as “weaponizing space,” has criticized the Liberals for reopening the debate. Defence critic Randall Garrison said he had “a bad feeling” about the proposal, and told the Ottawa Citizen he feared it would trigger an arms race. Such hand-wringing is worth little coming from a party that has supported one imperialist military intervention after another beginning with Canada’s involvement in the NATOled bombardment of Yugoslavia in 1999 and is on record as favouring increased military spending.

At the same time, Sajjan received briefing material from the military, as part of his transition into office, which underlines the top brass’s support for BMD. “The strategic importance of ballistic missile defense,” said one briefing paper, “has increased in recent years.”

The Liberals and Conservatives on the Senate committee joined together to unanimously recommend Canada join BMD. A Liberal decision to join BMD would be welcomed by the opposition Conservatives. Asked about the issue last month, former defence minister and likely Conservative leadership candidate Jason Kenny declared. “This is, I think, an obligation for us.”

By Roger Jordan

The Trudeau government offered a further signal of its intent to join BMD with its appointment of Bill Graham to the panel of four experts that is overseeing the defence policy review. A former Liberal defence minister, Graham is a strong advocate of missile defense. He told a Senate committee

5


CONTENT

A new Digital Cash System

9

Explore The Type Of Relationship You Have With Your Partner

14

Liberty

26

How to Get Away with Talent

Publisher:.......................Richard Paul

Art Director ...............................Alisa Aali

Graphics :..................Paul Swinwood

Writer ..................................Dillon Meileur

Media graphics.............Tyrone Henry

www.daniellemagazine.ca

28


Columns

DANIELLE

Publisher’s Message 3 Editor’s Pick 4

Zombie Economy

38

When The Con Believes The Con 12 False East/West Paradigm 16 Dumbing Down Today’s Youth 20

China

46

Schools and Media 33 Classic Ottawa Rock Band MIGIZI 36 WW3 44

Housing Bubble

48

Global Financial Turmoil 53 7


DANIELLE

Ben Segal

Guitar & Bass Lessons octaviohs@live.ca 819-921-1200

8


DANIELLE

A New Digital

Cash

System Was Just Unveiled At A Secret Meeting For Bankers In New

York

By Micheal Snyder

L

ast month, a “secret meeting” that involved more than 100 executives from some of the biggest financial institutions in the United States was held in New York City. During this “secret meeting“, a company known as “Chain” unveiled a technology that transforms U.S. dollars into “pure digital assets”. Reportedly, there were representatives from Nasdaq, Citigroup, Visa, Fidelity, Fiserv and Pfizer in the room, and Chain also claims to be partnering with Capital One, State Street, and First Data. This “revolutionary” technology is intended to completely change the way that we use money, and it would represent a major step toward a cashless society. But if this new digital cash system is going to be so good for society, why was it unveiled during a secret meeting for Wall Street bankers? Is there something more going on here than we are being told? None of us probably would have ever heard about this secret meeting if it was not for a report in Bloomberg. The following comes from their article entitled “Inside the Secret Meeting Where Wall Street Tested Digital Cash“… On a recent Monday in April, more than 100 executives from some of the world’s largest financial institutions gathered for a private meeting at the Times Square office of Nasdaq Inc.

They weren’t there to just talk about blockchain, the new technology some predict will transform finance, but to build and experiment with the software. By the end of the day, they had seen something revolutionary: U.S. dollars transformed into pure digital assets, able to be used to execute and settle a trade instantly. That’s the promise of a blockchain, where the cumbersome and error-prone system that takes days to move money across town or around the world is replaced with almost instant certainty. So it is not just Michael Snyder from The Economic Collapse Blog that is referring to this gathering as a “secret meeting”. This is actually how it was described by Bloomberg. And I think that there is a very good reason why this meeting was held in secret, because many in the general public would definitely be alarmed by this giant step toward a cashless society. Here is more on this new system from Bloomberg… “While cash in a bank account moves electronically all the time today, there’s a distinction between that system and what it means to say money is digital. Electronic payments are really just messages that cash needs to move from one account to another, and this reconciliation

is what adds time to the payments process. For customers, moving money between accounts can take days as banks wait for confirmations. Digital dollars, however, are pre-loaded into a system like a blockchain. From there, they can be swapped immediately for an asset.” “Instead of a record or message being moved, it’s the actual asset,” Ludwin said. “The payment and the settlement become the same thing.” Why this is so alarming is because we are seeing other major moves toward a cashless system all over the planet. In Sweden, 95 percent of all retail transactions are already cashless, and ATM machines are being removed by the hundreds. In Denmark, government officials actually have a stated goal of “eradicating cash” by the year 2030. And in Norway, the biggest bank in the country has publicly called for the complete elimination of all cash. Other nations in Europe have already banned cash transactions over a certain amount. Here are just a couple of examples… As I have written about previously, cash transactions of more than 2,500 euros have already been banned in Spain, and France and Italy have both banned all cash transactions of more than 1,000 euros. Little by little, cash is being eradicated, and what we have seen so

9


DANIELLE far is just the beginning. 417 billion cashless transactions were conducted in 2014, and the final number for 2015 is projected to be much higher. The global push toward a cashless society is only going to intensify, because banks and governments both tend to really like the idea of such a system. Banks really like the concept of a cashless society because it would force everyone to be their customers. There would be no more hiding cash in a mattress at home or trying to pay all of your bills with paper money. Under a cashless system, we would all be dependent on the banks, and they would make lots of money whenever we swiped our cards or our “chips” were scanned. Governments see a lot of advantages in a cashless society as well. They tell us that they would be able to crack down on drug dealers, tax evaders, terrorists and money launderers, but the truth is that it would enable them to watch, track, monitor and control virtually all of our financial transactions. Our lives would become open books to the government, and financial privacy would be a thing of the past. In addition, the potential for tyranny would be absolutely off the charts. Just imagine a world where the government could serve as the gatekeeper for who is allowed to use the cashless system and who is not. They could require that we all submit to some sort of governmentissued form of identification before being permitted to operate within the system, or it is even conceivable that a loyalty oath would be required. Of course if you did not submit to their demands, you could not buy, sell, open a bank account or get a job without access to the cashless system. Hopefully people can understand where this is going. Paper money is a very important component of our freedom, and if it is taken away from us that will open the door for all sorts of abuse.

10

Even now, cash is slowly being “criminalized” in America. For example, if cash is used to pay for a hotel room that is considered by federal authorities to be “suspicious activity” that should be reported to the government. Of course it isn’t against the law to pay your hotel bill in cash just yet, but according to the government it is something that “terrorists” do so it needs to be closely watched. It doesn’t take a whole lot of imagination to see where all of this is going. And for those of us that understand what time it is, this is a clear indication that it is getting late in the game.


Entertainment DANIELLE

11


DANIELLE

Absurdity: When The Con Believes The Con by Mark St.Cyr 

T

here are many infamous con games that have been foisted upon the public for millennia. Probably none more enduring than that of Charles Ponzi which bears his name as its moniker. Yet, there’s also been another who was also just as “daring” when it came to finding ways as to extract monetary gains by ill-gotten means: Victor Lustig. Lustig is best known as “The man who sold the Eiffel Tower.” However, it was one of his other cons that came to mind as I was thinking about the current state of monetary policy we now find ourselves in. Lustig’s other con was a device he slated would print $100 bills. But it had a problem. Unbeknown to his mark, this problem was also part of the deception. The problem was (as stated by Lustig) – it could only print 1 bill every 6 hours. The genius was; located within the machine it contained two genuine $100 bills. After that – blanks. You could be long gone, and quite far with that kind of head start back then. Yet, it’s once the con, ruse, or scam is finally exposed one thing is certain: You don’t want to still be around or found. As with any con game the perpetrator knows it’s all a con. In other words, “Duh!” Yet, if you listen closely to

12

position where his thoughts need to be guarded as a voting member of such policy lunacy. In other words: he can now speak his mind openly. To which I’ll muse – that’s no laughing matter when you consider how prevalent Keynesian economics now dominate. The latest from Bernanke exposes just how far down this “rabbit hole” central bankers have gone. So far I’ll contend – its frightful. e.g., They actually believe this subterfuge.

both past as well as present Fed. members you can’t help but notice by way of their current arguments, as well as, proposals for future monetary policy. The one’s who’ve truly bought into “the con” is: themselves! Nowhere has this been on display more than the current public writings and musings of former Fed. Chair Ben Bernanke. If you read his latest (which I’ve tried but can’t bear that much comedy in one sitting) he lays out what he thinks (or believes) should now take place involving Congress, the Administration, and the Fed. His great idea? Create and “fill” some arbitrary account which only the Fed. or its appointed designates have control of as to “empty” or “fill” as “Congress and Administration” see fit. But here’s the punchline, ready? “Importantly, the Congress and Administration would have the option to leave the funds unspent. If the funds were not used within a specified time, the Fed would be empowered to withdraw them.” (Insert laugh track here) Remember, this is coming not only from the former Chair, but also, one who is quite possibly the most emblematic of current thought residing throughout central bank policy makers with an additional caveat: He’s no longer bound by the

When I’m giving a talk, or engaged in conversation, I often use the term “con game” when describing current monetary policy and its effect on business and more. Often the term “con” at first seems to put people on the defensive as if I’m using hyperbole, or trying to make a point by using over the top styled rhetoric. The problem is (I’ll explain) it is exactly that. e.g., Many forget “con” stands for confidence in con-game. And now that the $Dollar along with just about every other currency is all fiat based: confidence is the only variable that supports it in a fiat system. Period. And once it’s lost just as with any “con” – it ends with blinding speed


DANIELLE and consequences.” This is the current danger now inherent after years of QE, NIRP, ZIRP, and every other acronym that represents some form or another of central bank intervention within the markets. So adulterated have the markets now become with central bank meddling; describing them without using quotes such as “markets” seems reckless. For these are far from the markets once thought to represent free market capitalism. Today they are “markets” in name only. For just like currencies –

they’re no longer backed by anything once considered tangible like gold or actual net profits via 1+1=2 accounting. At some point printing ad infinitum, as well as, companies reporting (ad infinitum!) losses of Billions in sales and revenue while declaring “We’re killing it!” via Non-GAAP accounting will make even the most ardent supporter of Keynesian thinking question this new reality. The absurdity can only go on for so long, because, to keep up the ruse (just like suckers) more absurdity is needed. We may be reaching that end point after all these years. And the latest clue might

be in the absurd recommendations emanating from central bankers themselves. For it’s becoming clearer by the day if one reads Bernanke’s latest: they think this all makes perfect sense. Talk about absurdity. Let me pose this question: Does anyone for a moment think China would (or will) allow the Federal Reserve along with the U.S. government carte blanche as to create “piggy banks” that can be used to help bolster its position without calling into attention the absurdity of it? Especially as it holds $TRILLIONS of U.S. debt on its own books? Imagine all this while not only the U.S. but the world of central bankers and other governments push, or brow beat Chinese current policies? Or, question their numbers for authenticity? How about Russia? Or Brazil? Or __________(fill in the blank.) Think they’ll all just stand idly by as their economies teeter on the brink of insolvency as the West just prints and points fingers? If you listen to the musings emanating from many of the central bankers today whether currently holding an active position, or one which has returned to the “private” sector. One would have to construe that they believe exactly that. i.e., Don’t worry – they’ll buy it because that’s what we want them too. And that absurdity is a glaring warning sign from my viewpoint.

contrast in the absurdity? Before; it landed you a session in jail. Today? It lands you a speaking gig for $250K a session. © 2016 Mark St.Cyr

This shows just how far down this absurdity “rabbit hole” we’ve gone. And it can be directly contrasted with the con games of old. For it was always a given: for the ruse to work for the benefit of the perpetrator – one must have both the sense as well as alertness to “get outta Dodge” and not to be seen again as the game blows up. Today? So enamored with the ruse they now fall all over themselves whether on TV, radio, or print, professing what absurdity should take place next to any and all that will listen. Again, even Lustig knew printing money ex nihilo was a con. Yet today, central bankers regard that as: prudent monetary policy. The difference for a

13


DANIELLE

Explore The Type Of Relationship You Have With Your Partner T

here was a time when definition of relationship was one: two people in love and their bond was nurtured by a commitment of staying together till the last breath. But these are changed times as now we can categorized relationships in different parts. Let’s explore the type of relationship you are in. Every individual has a certain taste and we keep looking for a person who befits the figure that our mind has made. Couples can be crazy and sweet at the same time. So let’s see what are the different types of relationships in today’s world? The On/Off Couple: Oh in this one, many of you will find yourself doing the same. Couples get into a fight in the morning and by the time its lunch hour, they get back together. Its like they have different opinions on everything but they cannot live without each other either. This is kind of funny. The Motivational Couples: This one is my favorite. Its like being each other’s rock and supporting one another in every go of life. Couples happen to inspire and encourage each other to achieve what they want. Such relations are long lasting than other kinds. The Married Couples: I find it funny and assuring at the same time when sometimes my boyfriend calls me his wife already. These are the couples that really behave as if they are married. They finish each other’s sentences and make each other does crazy things for one another. Such couples look too adorable.

14

The Fitness Couple: The couple that gyms together-stays together! These are fitness savvy couples that like to spend time working out together and make a majorly stunning couple in appearance. The Hipster Couple: These couples are people who don’t give a shit to the world. They always sway in their mood and stay happy. This is the coolest category of people who will eat that no one else will, who will visit most pathetic places where no one else will. Yet they make a beautiful couple as they inspire you to live life to the fullest, without the foe fear of the world. The Long Distance Couples: Couples who have maximum phone sex, long night talks, major fights and instant breakups and patch ups- such couples are called long distance couples. They are sweet and sadists at the same time. But these kinds of people will give you the strength and teach you how to stick on to a relationship.

The Too Comfortable Couple: These are the people who just don’t mind anything. They are cool if you are using the toilet and they will just step inside. Having non-stop and unwanted conversation and then make out and sleep, yes guys, these are really too comfortable. Well in all the couples, there is one thing common and that is sending I love you quotes. Girls keep collecting love quotes for him and the guy seems to enjoy all her efforts. World is full of crazy couples. Find out who you are!


DANIELLE

613 854 8089 Ottawa SEO Services OttawaSEO.net 15


DANIELLE

False East/West

Paradigm And The End Of Freedom P

eople are desperate for leaders and heroes. This is an undeniable condition of human life and of human civilization. Some historians and social observers, however, seem to think it is enough to simply point out this condition and pretend as if they have made some grand declaration; as if they have come to the root of the problem of mankind. In their laziness, they have mistaken a symptom for the cause. Why do people so often demand leaders and heroic figures? What drives the institutionalization of hierarchy, celebrity and geopolitical idolization? I believe this condition is caused by three factors – fear, ignorance, and apathy. This is not to say that there are not people throughout history that are worth looking up to, or that looking up to a particular hero figure is wrong. Heroes and sometimes leaders can act as points of reference, helping us to aspire to greater personal accomplishment and extraordinary achievement. The problem is many historical figures labeled heroic are in fact monsters in masks paraded as saviors by history writers with agendas. Real heroes (in the past hundred years in particular) are most often unsung, and remain little known. This is why the idolization of puppet leaders is so disturbing to those of us in the Liberty Movement. We witnessed the blind militancy of the

16

so-called “right wing” in the support of George W. Bush after 9/11, only to be led into quagmire, economic despair, and a surveillance state based on numerous lies. We then had to witness the insane cult-like fervor of the so-called “left wing” as Barack Obama took office, only to continue and accelerate the same draconian policies of the Bush Administration while conjuring new methods for the division and destruction of American society and prosperity. Yes, the Liberty Movement has examined every detail and is well versed in the horrors of the false Left/ Right paradigm. Again, I’ll have to quote the ever useful elitist member of the Council on Foreign Relations and mentor to former president Bill Clinton, Carroll Quigley, on this particular issue, from his book ‘Tragedy And Hope’: “...The argument of two parties should represent opposed ideas and policies, one perhaps, of the Right and the other of the Left, is a foolish idea acceptable only to doctrinate and academic thinkers. Instead, the two parties should be almost identical, so that the American people can “throw the rascals out” at any election without leading to any profound or extensive shifts in policy. The policies that are vital and necessary for America are no longer subjects of significant disagreement, but are disputable only in details of procedure, priority, or method.”

What truly disturbs me is that our movement can be so awake and aware of the false left/right paradigm while remaining astonishingly naïve and short sighted when it comes to the false East/West paradigm. And once again, I have to attribute this naivety to a desperation for heroes caused by fear and apathy. I have written on the reality that Eastern political interests are just as controlled by globalists as Western political interests for years. Readers can review the considerable amount of data and evidence I have collected on Russia and Vladimir Putin in particular and the ties between the East and international financiers and well known globalists in recent articles such as ‘Russia Is Dominated By Global Banks, Too’, ‘False East/West Paradigm Hides The Rise Of Global Currency’, and ‘The New World Order And The Rise Of The East’. In fact, I predicted almost every aspect of the current Syrian crisis based on the knowledge that the East versus West dynamic was purely an engineered conflict designed to diminish American power and economic influence through the use of planned chaos, and I did this years before events were ever triggered in the region. I knew what was about to happen in Syria only because I understood one important fundamental – that there are no “sides” in any modern conflict,


DANIELLE only proxies fighting on a global chessboard controlled by the same elitist interests. Syria represented a perfect catalyst for a planetary scale conflict triggered between East and West in way that could divert attention from internationalists. Modern war, whether through kinetics or economics, is almost always theater designed to distract and terrorize the masses, which are the true target of any conflagration.

is that the harder the globalists push society toward their Utopian ideal, the more individuals (not controlled governments or political puppets) wake up to the threat. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. The Liberty Movement is the equalizing reaction to forced globalization. In order for the elites to neutralize the threat we present, they must either destroy us or co-opt us. I believe the

We must set aside childish assumptions on war. Wars are not about resources. They are not about territory. They are not about the hegemony of any particular nation state. If you buy into such notions, you have been duped. No, war is about something much bigger. War first and foremost is a tool for the manipulation and molding of public psychology. As Edward Bernays, the father of modern propaganda said:

Because of this fear, they sometimes commit the crime of cognitive dissonance in order to protect their false belief in a heroic Putin. They will ignore the fact that Putin is a long time friend of Henry Kissinger, the most publicly vocal proponent of the “New World Order, and that Putin describes Kissinger as his “trusted foreign policy adviser”.

“The great enemy of any attempt to change men’s habits is inertia. Civilization is limited by inertia.” War is meant to forcefully change the “inertia” of civilization, and thus, forcefully change the direction of civilization in a manner that benefits the engineers of the conflict. One great threat to the mechanism of globalism and the elites behind it is the liberty movement, which is slowly but steadily growing in popularity and influence as America edges ever closer to economic and sociopolitical oblivion. As the U.S. is homogenized, harmonized, and brought down to third world status for the benefit of a one-world system, resistance continues to grow. You see, one negative side-effect of the rush towards centralization and a single global power (often referred to by the elites as the “New World Order”)

the side of right in the fight against ISIS and the evil Western empire. They want to believe this because they are afraid – they are afraid that they are alone in the fight against the NWO. They are afraid that they will have to commit to personal sacrifice and struggle against a vastly technologically superior opponent. They are afraid that they alone will have to take responsibility for America’s destiny and that no great leader on a white horse is coming to blaze the path ahead of them.

East/West paradigm is being used in part to attempt the co-option of liberty elements. Despite the fact that many liberty analysts are beginning to understand the nature of the false East/West paradigm and the truth behind the rise of Russia, the predictable escalation in Syria is energizing a strange brand of Putin-worship once again. Liberty elements WANT to believe that Putin is somehow in opposition to globalization, that he is somehow morally superior to the Obama Administration, and that Russia is on

They will ignore the fact that Russia’s primary economic adviser is none other than the hitman of the international banking syndicate, Goldman Sachs, and that Goldman Sachs has been deeply involved in Russia’s economic affairs since at least 1992, just after the fall of the Soviet Union. They will ignore the fact that Putin and Russia have allied closely with the IMF (an institution supposedly dominated by the U.S.). Putin and the IMF are so intertwined that it was Putin who demanded that the IMF take over the management of Ukraine’s finances after the regional crisis began, and, it was the IMF that blatantly supported

17


DANIELLE Putin’s call for a change in Ukraine’s bond status from private to “official”. Russia also demanded that Ukraine’s debts be repaid in Special Drawing Rights, the global currency basket which the IMF plans to use to replace the U.S. dollar as the world reserve mechanism. They will also surely ignore the fact that Putin and the Kremlin have on multiple occasion called for the IMF to take over global management of the worlds financial systems through the implementation of the SDR as the new world reserve currency. And of course, the fact that Russia is a member of the Bank for International Settlements and the BIS is the policy dictator of ALL central banking (do I really need to quote Carroll Quigley on the BIS yet again?) does not bode well for the affiliations and intentions of Russia as a whole, yet we are still bombarded in the liberty movement with platitudes on how Putin is “sticking it to the bankers”. No, I’m afraid not. According to the evidence, Putin is just like Obama: Yet another whore for the internationalists. Post all the pictures you want of the guy holding an uzi or finishing a judo throw, but his public persona does not fit reality. The mainstream media in the U.S. has for the most part run on the narrative that Putin is the next Stalin, and if you are going to perpetuate a false East/West paradigm this makes perfect sense. But there is also a separate narrative being presented to the liberty movement and the rest of the world. The talking points coming out of outlets like RT (Russia Today), a media machine controlled by the Russian government, has for the past few years stolen brilliant observations by American liberty proponents and repackaged them as video fluff. Most of these observations are negative in their view of U.S. government policy as well as central banking dictatorship, and they are also entirely correct. The problem is, RT does not apply the same standards of

18

journalistic skepticism to the Russian government or its ties to the central banking cabal. Time Magazine publishes pro-Putin articles naming him “man of the year” in every other nation where they have distribution, but removes these stories and covers when publishing in America. The general American public is being sold on the idea that Putin is a calculating danger to global stability and that Western governments must become more aggressive to counter the threat. The rest of the world and the liberty movement are being sold on the image of a benevolent Putin and a Russia standing firm against the corrupt war machine of the West, but this image simply is not real. The danger for the liberty movement in the near future is considerable. Our blind support of the false East/West paradigm makes us vulnerable to easy co-option, for if we as a movement are tricked into closely affiliating with Russia then we lose our identity as a force for American independence and become nothing more than an “Eastern created” faux revolution. Think it can’t happen? Mainstream media outlets are ALREADY building the narrative. The Atlantic was the first, with an article directly connecting “right wing” movements and “conspiracy theorists” in the U.S. with Russian influence and propaganda. As the false East/West confrontation grows, the real purpose of such a crisis will become apparent. ISIS agents conveniently shipped out of Syria among millions of “refugees” before Russian forces finally decided to strike will wreak havoc in Western nations. Economic chaos will become prevalent. The U.S. will lose the dollar’s petro-status as the East subsumes Eurasia.  Fear of another world war will haunt public perception. The ever uneducated and terrified mass majority will become far less tolerant of intelligent dissent. And, the Fabian Socialists infesting global institutions will suggest a clever

solution to the problem they created the dissolution of all sovereign nations and the complete centralization of governance into the hands of a select few to save humanity from such destructive divisions. If you understand that a primary goal of globalists is to fully remove constitutional protections in America and assert a totalitarian framework, then you have to admit that a conflict with Russia is an excellent opportunity for them. War fever makes men delirious and malleable, and outside threats make internal despotism more tolerable. In the meantime, if the liberty movement refuses to treat Russia with the same x-ray vision it has used against western governments (a Russia clearly working with international financiers and globalist institutions) then we make it far easier for the elitist propaganda machine to paint us as Eastern backed traitors rather than freedom fighters down the road, thus crushing our chances at garnering increased support from the public and awakening new voices. Mark my words, in the end we will not only be forced to rebel against centralization under our own criminal government; we will also have to rebel against criminal puppet governments everywhere. I have no doubt that when we see the ranks of the globalist enemy, there will be Russian faces standing right alongside Western oligarchs. Maybe then people will finally admit that the East/West crisis was a carefully crafted hoax all along. Brandon Smith  


DANIELLE

19


DANIELLE

Ontario: Dumbing Down Today’s Youth By Dillon A. Meilleur

F

rom elementary school all the way through high school, I was told that if I study hard, pass my classes and attend university, my life would be set. But once I graduated high school, I quickly realized that was the furthest thing from the truth. Attending college or university in today’s society does not guarantee you a well-paying position in your field. New graduates are often left with nothing more than a degree and $25,000 worth of impending debt. In order to pay back this looming debt, these new graduates are forced to take a survival job, which is typically at a fast food place or in the retail industry. Giving four years of your life and tens of thousands of dollars so you can work a minimum wage job seems a little backwards. Their skills, education and intelligence are all being underutilized in a tragic way. In 2013, the unemployment rate for Ontario youth aged 15-24 fluctuated between 16-17.1 percent. Ontario has one of the highest unemployment rates for youth In Canada, with the national average ranging between 13.5 and 14.5 percent (Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives). More Ontario students are graduating from high school than ever before, yet unemployment rates amongst Ontario youths are rising. Does anyone else see anything wrong with this picture? Passing the brunt It has never been easier to graduate from high school than it is today. Students are

20

graduating at an increasing rate, so that means the schools must be doing a good job, right? Today’s schools are so hell-bent on passing students that they have purposely made it easier for them to just get by. All over Ontario, teachers are being pressured to lower marking standards to allow “struggling” students to pass. No school, teacher or principal wants to see low numbers, but at what cost? By lowering our education standards we are quite literally dumbing down Canadian youth. Now, it doesn’t all fall on the teachers, they’re just following orders like any good soldier. There have been numerous reports of principals coaxing teachers into changing marks and to be more lenient with struggling students. There is even one instance of a principal changing a student’s failing grade to a passing grade without the teacher’s knowledge. What has this world come to when an educator will sacrifice a child’s education to meet a quota? I remember a time when a student was allowed to fail; forcing students into a higher grade when they are not ready can have an extremely negative effect on their learning. If a student is struggling with grade eight math, how are they supposed to understand, let alone pass ninth grade math? Each student needs to graduate at their own pace, even if that means failing a few classes or even being held back a year. The Ontario education system is on a downward spiral. They are creating a

generation of undereducated, un-prepared youth that have had their hand held their whole life. Our youth is the future of this country; we should be challenging them instead of babying them. To this day I still know a hand full of 20-somethings who don’t know the difference between their, they’re and there. If that’s not representative of the level of education in Ontario I don’t know what is. According to the Canadian Literary and Learning network 42% of Canadian adults between the ages of 16 and 65 have low literacy skills. That is a staggering number. How can a country that has one of the highest standards of living have such a low literacy rate? How government policy influences education The McGuinty government reigned in a new era of superior education in On tario over their 10 year period of influence. Former Ontario Premier, Dalton McGuinty invested 1.3 billion dollars into Ontario’s education system in hopes of improving grades and graduation rates. This new spending was directed towards after-school programs, the credit recovery program, skill-based classes, co-op placement, etc. McGuinty’s plan to convert struggling students into high school graduate was a success, at first glance of course. A main component of the McGuinty education plan was the “credit-recovery” program. This program was designed to allow struggling students to obtain high school credits in a short period of time,


DANIELLE within a condensed education setting. This would allow the student to obtain the credit within a few weeks opposed to an entire semester. These students are given a tremendous chance. Teachers work with them one on one to ensure they are fully grasping the subject at hand. Regular classes today are often overcrowded. It’s extremely difficult for one teacher to ensure that 30 kids are learning efficiently. This new program made it virtually impossible for teachers to take off marks for late submission. Is that really fair to the other students who worked hard to get their assignments in on time? This poses another difficult question. Are we helping those in need or are we just making it easier for the students who don’t put forth any effort? McGuinty’s new education policy changed Ontario forever, for better or for worse. According to a recent article in the Ottawa Sun titled “Is Ontario making the Grade?” Ontario Premier, Kathleen Wynne stated that she is very pleased with the number of Ontario high school graduates. It’s true that Ontario’s high school graduation rates have never been higher. With 78.3 percent of students graduating four years after entering ninth grade why wouldn’t she be happy. But are these numbers a true reflection of a stronger education system—or more lenient educators? The provincial government claims they do not put any pressure on the schools or principals to graduate certain number of students. I find it hard to believe that the Ontario government has a nonchalant attitude about how many students graduate from high school each year.

real-life lessons. Although I did learn a number of things that I won’t ever forget, like how to ask if I can go to the bathroom in French and who won the war of 1812 (It was the British, for our American readers). Throughout the years in school I realized something. I wasn’t really ever learning, I was just memorizing information. I wasn’t obtaining or absorbing anything, I was merely regurgitating information for the better part of my education. Again I find myself beckoning the question, where were the hands-on, real life scholastics? We didn’t have any classes called “how to pay back your student loans” or “how to budget your life 101”. We are not only dumbing down are youth, we are also neglecting to provide them with essential life skills and knowledge to become a productive and well-rounded member of society. We need to take a big step back as a country and re-examine the way that we educate Canadian youth.

A major disconnect Being a student of the Ontario Catholic School Board education system, I can’t help but feel that I didn’t receive adequate scholastic preparation for the “real world”. My learning consisted of the Pythagorean Theorem (which I have never used once), a multitude of religion and limited physical activity, but where was the analytical and conceptual learning? There is a major disconnect today between what is taught in school and what we need to know to survive. After spending 14 years in the OCCSB education system I can confidentially say that I wish I learned more

21


DANIELLE

H

ere is the basic honest truth: most of the people get into Internet Marketing because they are convinced it is an easy way to earn quick money. Their approach is to make a fast website, put up some advertising and a few affiliate links and then sit back and watch while they earn real cash. There are a large amount of individuals who do this and also earn lots of money on the internet. But what if you want more than some extra or even quick cash (quick cash, naturally being a misnomer)? Can Internet Marketing really be leveraged to produce a worthwhile and long term career? The quick and dirty answer is that yes, you are able to make Internet Marketing your long term and sustainable career. You only need to take on the project properly. The procedures and programs you use to build something to earn fast money are not all that different than the metho ds and systems you will use to build long term profits. So what would you do if you need to develop a sustainable career on the internet? It is very important that the first thing you do, in order to earn

22

long term money online, is

it in the

accept the fact that you are going to have to do real work. You will have to do actual and real work on a daily basis and you will have days when you feel fantastic about what you do and days when you wish you could find something else to take on. This causes it to be just about like every other occupation that is out there. If you want to produce lasting cash flow by working lots right now and not at all later on then you are going to be in for a rude awakening in a little while. So be ready to roll up your sleeves and get to work.

long run. If you want to give a service on the web this works much the same way. Writers, for example, need to create websites for themselves and create portfolios that they can point to as examples of their work.

There are a few ventures that lend themselves much better to a long term career than others will. Affiliate marketing, to use one example, is a great task for someone who wants to earn money on a part time basis or to supplement your already existent income. Is it truly possible to earn a full time income in this manner? You could if you pick out only the right products and then work like crazy to promote them. A far better approach, nevertheless, is to create your own products or websites and then promote those. This gives you full control over the projects you take on and how you accomplish them. And you will end up more likely to stick with

Finally, perhaps the most significant thing that you need to recognize is that, when you want to build a long term and reliable income on the internet, you need to truly dedicate yourself to your task. You might have fun and feel rewarded by your efforts but first you should tell yourself “yes, I really want to do this.� Making a half hearted effort is not about to get you anywhere. Tanaka Ara


14

D A N I E L L E DANIELLE

Pat Briere’s Muskie Charter

Guided trophy muskie hunting!!!! St Lawrence and Ottawa Rivers Planning a trip East? Come fish the big waters near Montreal, Canada for some heart pounding action. You will experience some of the best muskie fishing in North America. The waters and stories are legendary, year after year many big trophy fish are caught. The playground

Fishing vessel

Big River Strong current Unlimited structure Big strong fighting fish Come cast an troll the river Slicks We specialize in casting and trolling the mighty St Lawrence river (The larry) 18 years experience You will catch a 50” or bigger on a 5 day booking we are confident in the hundreds of miles of shoreline that we will come into contact with a fish you are looking to catch!!!! Accommodation cottage located on the St Lawrence River Catch and realese only! Fly into Montreal or Ottawa

2004 lund pro v 2025 200hp mercury 15hp pro kicker Few items on board Red October baits St Croix rods Blue water baits DK lures Shimano reels Trojan tackle

You are also welcome to bring your own go to baits and get them chewed up!!!!! Patrick Briere 1-613-662-6352 Email:Pat_Briere@hotmail.com www.muskiecharter.com

23


DANIELLE

Inequality at levels “not seen since the Great Depression”

A

report published by the unionbacked Ontario Common Front paints a harrowing portrait of the social devastation inflicted on the province’s working class and poor over the course of a single generation. Titled “Falling Behind”, the report documents the impact of years of right-wing government policies that have laid waste to the jobs and living standards of working Ontarians, producing levels of social inequality not seen since the Great Depression. The report places responsibility for this social disaster on provincial governments both past and present, which have implemented antiworker policies in the service of big business. Figures included in the report demonstrate that tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy and years of social spending cuts have crippled public services such as health care and education. The resulting crises, such as overcrowded hospitals, sky-high post-secondary tuition fees, the shuttering of community service organizations, and the slashing of social assistance funds, are then blamed on government “waste” and “inefficiency” and used to justify privatization and still greater cuts. Although the report points to the depth of the social crisis facing millions of Ontario workers, it omits the central role played by the unions and the New Democratic Party (NDP) in facilitating this situation, and thus

24

only tells half the story. Among some of the starkest findings in the report are the following: * At 12 percent of its workforce, Ontario has the highest proportion of minimum wage workers (C$11.25 per hour) in the country. * In 2009, 13.1 percent of Ontarians, or 1,689,000 people, lived under the poverty line, including 14.6 percent of all children. * Between 1976 and 2004, the bottom 40 percent—600,000 Ontario families—experienced stagnating or declining incomes, while the wealthiest 10 percent saw their incomes rise by an average 41 percent. * Public spending per capita in Ontario is the lowest in the country, at C$9,000 per person. * Almost 400,000 Ontarians used food banks in 2011. * Almost one quarter of unemployed Ontarians are out of work for six months or longer. * Child care costs and university tuition fees in Ontario are the highest in the country. The gap between the wealthiest and the poorest in Ontario is now at its greatest since the 1930s. The ruling class of Ontario, like its counterparts at the national and international level, has accomplished this by effecting a massive transfer of wealth from the bottom to the top, using the 2008 financial crisis as a pretext to accelerate its austerity drive.

Between 1976 and 2004, the chasm between the rich and poor grew ever wider. In 1976, the wealthiest 10 percent of Ontarians earned “just” 27 times more than the poorest 10 percent. By 2004, this had exploded to 75 times more. In the span of one generation, the top 10 percent have experienced a 41 percent increase in net wealth, but the poorest 10 percent have suffered a staggering 150 percent decline. With almost one third of Ontarians earning within C$4 of the m i s e r a b l e C $ 11 . 2 5 - p e r hour minimum wage and the price of necessities such as housing, food, and utilities steadily rising, workers and their families increasingly find it difficult to meet basic expenses. The relentless drive of the banks and corporations to increase profits, in addition to the anemic nature of the so-called economic recovery, has led to the shedding of 318,000 manufacturing jobs since 2000. At least 270,000 new jobs would be required to merely return Ontario’s employment numbers to their pre-recession levels. Instead, corporations have done the opposite, with major layoffs taking place on a monthly basis.


DANIELLE Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal government and its Conservative and NDP predecessors have delivered decades of austerity. I n 2012, the Liberals, led by thenpremier Dalton McGuinty, initiated the greatest spending cuts in the province’s history, dwarfing those made by the hated Harris Conservatives in the late 1990s. When the Liberals took office in 2003, they essentially maintained the massive tax cuts for the rich and super-rich, as well as the savage cuts to welfare rates, which had been implemented by their Conservative predecessors. As a result of these cuts to public services, which include a three-year public spending freeze that began last year and C$7 billion in cuts over the past five years, the social services on which millions of Ontario workers

depend have been gutted to the point of near-collapse. Ontario’s hospitals are the most underfunded in the country, and Ontarians pay more for health care expenses than residents of any other province. More than 30,000 Ontarians at any given moment are waiting for a hospital bed or long-term care, and hospitals regularly operate at or above full capacity. Social and community services have been hollowed out as a result of drastic budget cuts. Wages within this sector have fallen precipitously

as a result of these cuts, to the point that many workers in this sector are forced to use the same services and resources they administer. “ Falling Behind” repudiates the incessant gloating of government and big business representatives about the merits of the “free market” in creating a “just and equitable society.” The real picture that emerges is that of debilitating poverty and hardship for the vast majority of Ontario’s workers, and a feeding frenzy of unprecedented proportions for the wealthy. At the same time, the Ontario Common Front, which is comprised of 90 community organizations and led by the Ontario Federation of Labour (OFL), maintains an indefensible silence about the role played by the trade unions and the NDP in facilitating this crisis. If “Falling Behind” is a list of crimes perpetrated against the province’s workers and poor, then it is also an implicit indictment of the treachery of the union bureaucracy and the middle class “left.” The Ontario Common Front was created by the trade union bureaucracy in the wake of the 2011 Occupy protests as a way to corral oppositional and anti-austerity sentiment back behind the procapitalist perspective of the union bureaucracy. The participating community groups were solicited so as to give a left-wing gloss to the unions’ thoroughly right-wing nationalist politics. The unions, while historically tied to the social-democratic NDP, have in one shape or another supported the Liberals’ bids for power since 1998 [http://www.wsws.org/en/ articles/2014/06/14/onta-j14.html], when many major unions created the Ontario’s Working Families Coalition to muster votes for the Liberals. Driven by fear of the explosive social power of the working class, which threatened to escape their control during the mass anti-Conservative protests between 1995 and 1997,

the unions shifted further to the right, playing a critical role in bringing the big business Liberals to power in Queen’s Park. The stock-in-trade of the union bureaucracy is the promotion of “strategic voting,” urging support for the “lesser evil” Liberals to prevent a hard-right Conservative government. Once in power, the Liberals invariably implement right-wing policies as demanded by the corporations and financial houses that line Bay Street. Similarly, the NDP and its pseudo-left supporters, while posing as opponents of austerity and allies of the working class, represent the interests of a thin and affluent middle class layer. Dependent on the capitalist system for their privileged social status and hostile to socialism and the interests of the working class, they have rapidly shed their left-wing pretensions in response to the economic crisis and the resurgence of working class opposition to capitalism. For 18 months between 2012 and 2014, Andrea Horwath’s NDP was in a de facto coalition with the Liberals, enabling the passage of McGuinty’s devastating austerity budget and its use of strikebreaking legislation to impose a cut in teachers’ real wages. Over the opposition of the unions, Horwath only pulled her party’s support in May 2014 in an attempt to salvage what was left of the NDP’s tattered left credentials. This, however, did not prevent the NDP from running its most right-wing campaign ever in the ensuing election. An exposure of the sordid machinations of the unions and the NDP would completely undermine the Ontario Common Front’s legitimacy, existing as it does as a tool of the union bureaucracy. Dylan Lubao Pictures

25


DANIELLE

Defending Due Process Rights A

braham Lincoln once said, “Stand with a man while he is right, and part with him when he goes wrong.” Abraham Lincoln I believe Lincoln’s statement is in full accord with Bible truth. This morning I found an opportunity to post the following comment on an AFL-CIO Blog comment area: All serious union members and supporters need to focus on educating friends and acquaintances with the purpose of unions and collective bargaining in the first place–to secure the rights of workers. What rights? DUE PROCESS rights and the inviolability of contracts. As a Union Representative over many years I experienced first hand the failure on the part of “management” and “administration” to fulfill or observe the due process requirements of the Collective Bargaining Contract. Inform friends, neighbors, acquaintances, and your political representatives of the necessity to preserve the hard-won due process rights of every worker in every field. This is what justice is all about. Certain very popular talk-show hosts constantly misrepresent unions. They frequently repeat the all-out lie that union dues support the political agenda of the union. They see to understand that political support for candidates does not come from union dues, but separate voluntary

26

contributions of union members who want to support candidates favorable to their cause. It is time to stand against these lies, and declare the truth. I commented elsewhere this morning that there are two Bible passages that pertain to these issues directly: Luke 10:7 Luke 10:7 And in the same house remain, eating and drinking such things as they give: for the labourer is worthy of his hire. Go not from house to house. Compare 1 Timothy 5:18, 1Ti 5:18 For the scripture saith, Thou shalt not muzzle the ox that treadeth out the corn. And, The labourer is worthy of his reward. Psalm 15:4 Psa 15:4 In whose eyes a vile person is contemned; but he honoureth them that fear the LORD. He that sweareth to his own hurt, and changeth not. The pertinent clause is rather obscure in the King James Version. In the CEV version it reads: And they keep their promises, no matter what the cost. God is very strict in His requirements that legal agreements be kept to the letter. Failure to observe an agreement with a heathen or pagan king was the direct and immediate cause for the destruction of

Solomon’s Temple and the removal of the nation of Israel from its land resulting in the Babylonian Captivity for 70 years. There are other examples in the Bible, starting as early as Joshua, who kept an agreement even when he learned that he had been deceived by those who sought and obtained the agreement. I believe Psalm 15:1 makes it quite clear that the consequences of not obeying God’s standard of adhering to contracts as written are most serious for the individuals involved in violating or reneging on an established contract or agreement. This includes all States, politicians, political parties, and voters who support the arbitrary termination of duly agreed upon Collective Bargaining Contracts. Psa 15:1 A Psalm of David. LORD, who shall abide in thy tabernacle? who shall dwell in thy holy hill? The rest of this short psalm provides the answer to the question raised in the first verse. Collective Bargaining agreements are written for a specific length of time, often one year, two years, or three years. The proper stance of elective officials, management, and administration would be to live up to the contracts agreed to. When the Contract period is up, and the Contract is up for re-negotiation, THEN is the time to secure any fair and needful adjustments to the provisions of the Collective Bargaining agreement. Unions also must learn to live with reality in difficult times and not make demands which cannot be justified morally or by economic good sense. Jerry Smith


DANIELLE

27


DANIELLE

How to Get Away with Talent

The American Adventures of

Caroline Redekopp W

By Judi Jordan

hen Caroline Redekopp set off westward from Ottawa in her trusty red Jeep with her faithful Miniature Schnauzer, Dutchess at her side, she had an inkling of what challenges lay ahead. The ‘Industry’, as ‘insiders’ call Hollywood, is akin to a brutal reality show, where youth is most valued, and survival is stacked against the over-40 participants, particularly women. Despite the fact that 27% of Americans are between 45 and 65, there simply aren’t enough ‘smart’ shows for mature audiences that include roles written for actresses of a certain age. Men over 50 have it easier, and are often cast opposite younger women to make them appear ‘virile’ or ‘youthful.’ Great TV roles for females are as scarce as winning lottery tickets, and these are increasingly going to out-of-work film stars who find their second chance on the small screen. But Redekopp was no stranger to fierce competition and a male-dominated arena after spending fifteen years in the field as a news reporter and later on the desk as a former News Anchor for a local television station in Canada’s capital. Caroline, already a familiar face to TV viewers, delivered broadcasts knee-deep in snowstorms, soaked from wind and rain, and frozen to the bone in Ottawa winters. She thought she knew what sacrifice meant. But it was under the deceptively sunny skies of Los Angeles that she would meet her greatest challenge

28

This was what Caroline discovered when she parked her Jeep, found a place to live, and prepared to audition. Redekopp took classes, polished her craft, played her guitar, meditated, and walked Dutchie. What set her apart was her experience. She came from Canada with a strong acting resume under her belt and a Los Angeles management team, Rex Talent Management, with the promise of three acting offers that would place her in a web series, feature film and TV episodic. But in true Hollywood style, anything can happen and the financing fell through. She quickly found herself facing a much larger and more competitive acting pool with auditions for her age bracket and gender few and far between. But, when you have talent, tenacity, and a fierce desire to succeed, as Redekopp demonstrated, you find yourself beating out thousands of actors who flock there in search of the same dreams. At first she was landing short film roles, web series, independent feature films, and television pilots. Most actors would give up or fizzle out, but not Caroline. This is how this actor ‘got away with talent’. Given the opportunity to showcase her acting chops, Redekopp was consistently striking the right chord in Hollywood. More opportunities presented themselves, first with a national commercial for Princess Cruises shortly followed by television episodics. Redekopp quic Found herself co-starring on “How to

Get Away with Murder” cast as a field reporter. She met the amazing Viola Davis and performed with Kendrick Sampson and Mary Pat Gleason. Fast forward to her most recent guest-starring role on HBO’s hit show, “Veep”, and it’s clear to see that it’s just a matter of time before we see this Ottawa native make her a w a rd - w i n n i n g mark in Hollywood. Until then, you can find Caroline gracing the television screen on June 19th. 2016 when the “Veep” episode Kissing Your Sister airs. And so it was with great honor that Danielle magazine was able to sit down with Caroline for an exclusive look into Hollywood’s inner workings through her experiences within this industry that has often been told us to be a dream far from each and everyone’s reach. DANIELLE MAGAZINE: Caroline, congratulations on an accomplished career in Hollywood! You just played a character on “Veep”, was there anything special that happened leading up to that, or during the shoot?


DANIELLE CAROLINE REDEKOPP: In this industry, an actor can change their looks a lot to match each character they play. For example, I had to dye my hair red when I played the role of “Doris” in the feature film “Territories” directed by Montreal’s Olivier Abbou. Sometimes we change our image to reinvent ourselves, especially when the roles we used to get just don’t match our age anymore. I had done just

“Veep,” but it required a brunette. This was a show I did not want to miss being a part of, so I drove to a couple of beauty shops in search of the right product to get the right look. I walked out of there with a can of black hair dying spray. What a mess that made in my nice white bathroom, but it was well worth it. I ended up booking that audition too without a callback! I was on a roll. I began getting known as the actor with the fewest auditions, but the best booking rate. The other wonderful experience was working with an actor who is not only well known on the screen for his acting talent, but also his spirituality, something I believe is important to develop, and benefits both your personal and professional life. Saginaw Grant was a great resource for me during the scene, one I will always treasure and share once the episode airs. Until then, I’m sworn to secrecy!

DANIELLE MAGAZINE: But our readers would surely like to know what it’s like to be on set of a major film/television production and what feelings or emotions one goes through for a girl from Ottawa hitting the big times? Can it be intimidating?

that. I had no sooner cut my hair and dyed it lighter than my normal jet black hair when I got a call to audition for

CAROLINE REDEKOPP: I think the most unnerving experience is walking on the set of a well greased and oiled machine and you are the new kid on the block. At first it seems daunting because everyone knows each other except you. However, you quickly find out that you are no different. In the case of “How To Get Away with Murder” and “Veep”, shows that have been on the air for a

while, it is no wonder that the connections have already been made with the regular cast members, so it became evident to me immediately that I had to make that connection in a very short amount of time. What I received in return by the cast and crew from both shows was nothing short of professionalism. Despite being new on the scene, they opened their arms to me in a welcoming fashion and treated me like any other professional. Any fear I might have held dissipated. DANIELLE MAGAZINE: What do you do to get prepared from reading the script you are about to deliver and gracefully enter the scene to a quiet set to hear the director call action! CAROLINE REDEKOPP: It really depends on how much time I have! I try to capture the essence of my character and build from there using the wisdom of the “grandfather” of acting methodology, Stanislavsky. I break down the character in body, mind, and soul. Then I make sure I have the lines down so I can let the emotions bring them to life. I find the more prepared I am, the more I trust the character will come through in the moment. Stanislavsky treated acting as a serious endeavor, requiring dedication, discipline, and integrity which resonated with me, as these were the values that were ingrained within me by my father. So, this approach was already a fit given my inclinations and predisposition to achieving credible performances and being within “The Moment”, as every actor aspires to. My spiritual experience helps me channel the character and be present in a scene. I love dissecting the character and scenes further with other well-established actors like my L.A. colleagues Edgar Nentwig and Craig Ng. Once, I hit the set, I have to trust that all this preparation will flow into a realistic and authentic performance. DANIELLE MAGAZINE: You recently had a role on the huge hit, ABC’s “How to Get Away with Murder”starring Viola Davis. What was that like, from the audition to the actual work? CAROLINE REDEKOPP: You never quite know what to expect at an audition. Each one is different yet similar. In this case,

29


DANIELLE I went in for two separate roles: a News Anchor and Field Reporter. Both roles I had actually lived, for fifteen years in Ottawa, Ontario Canada, talk about Method Acting! This was my first time seeing this particular casting director… Linda Lowy & John Brace, and casting associate, Morgan Smith so I was a bit nervous even though I had auditioned a thousand times before. Not so out of the ordinary, I came in, said hello, took my mark in front of the camera, focused, and gave it my all. The CD gave me a re-direct for the second take, which I gladly gave her and I was out the door. The audition felt good, but with so many decision makers still needing to see my performance I had long ascertained that it was best to leave the outcome to the Universe. It was out of my hands now. I had already done the hard work, prepared, showed up and gave one hundred percent in the room. I didn’t expect what happened next. Almost immediately after, I was getting a call from my agent….I booked the part! “What? No callback? That’s it, I’m in?” Now if only all my bookings would come that easily and quickly. DANIELLE MAGAZINE: What was the biggest shock you had regarding Hollywood? CAROLINE REDEKOPP: When a Los Angeles casting director told me that there are three different types of people who get cast, those who are, either, “funny, fuckable, or beautiful.” Whether that is true or not, it was quite an eye opener. DANIELLE MAGAZINE: With that in mind, what was the weirdest role you’ve ever played? CAROLINE REDEKOPP: When I played the lead character, Taylor Evans in “September Runs Red”, a psychological thriller, directed and written by Dan Forgues. It wasn’t necessarily the weirdest role, but it certainly was the weirdest predicament. The lead villain in the film, Dr. Jonathan Cane, as played by Xavier Sotelo, trapped me in a coffin, tied me up with rope, and tormented me through a small opening with something very akin to falling over Niagara Falls in a barrel. It felt like true psychological torture. While it was a bit unsettling it was surprisingly cathartic. This was the real deal. There were NO STUNT DOUBLES! The director

30

wanted the actors to “feel” everything and that’s what he got! DANIELLE MAGAZINE: What was the hardest day you’ve ever had on set? CAROLINE REDEKOPP: The last day on any set is always the hardest especially when you work such long hours as we did during the filming of “September Runs Red.” It was difficult, emotionally, knowing that it was all coming to an end. When you work long days, on a small island, where the only inhabitants are the cast and crew, you can’t help but become a close knit family. When you are in character and you give it your all, these are the people that are really going to know you - your authentic self. You’re basically baring it all, allowing them to see who you really are. On the final night on the island, we had a bonfire and we all knew at that moment that we were all part of something so very special - indelible memories to last a lifetime. Saying goodbye to these people was hard, indeed. DANIELLE MAGAZINE: What has been the most challenging part of your LA experience? CAROLINE REDEKOPP: Living the life of an “actor” is the challenging part! The roles are the easy part. There were days where the only bed I would sleep on for days at a time was a blanket stretched out in the back of my SUV alongside my dog, Dutchie, while I rented out my place for groceries and gas money to get to auditions. It was challenging to create healthy meals on oatmeal and rice chips. While those days are long gone, I wouldn’t have changed a thing. It’s these life challenges that build character! DANIELLE MAGAZINE: What has been the best surprise you’ve had along the way? CAROLINE REDEKOPP: The unexpected recognition I received from a fellow actor; Kelly McGillis, was by far one of the best unexpected surprises. It was during a scene in the film “Black Widower” where I played an unsuspecting lover, “Mary Zellinger” and Kelly played the investigating detective, “Nancy Westveld.” Peers can actually be your hardest critics. So, when you get noticed for your hard work from a peer, it is gold. In this partic-

ular instance, Kelly and I were so present in the scene it was MAGICAL, that nobody, not even the director, called “Cut!” But then Kelly went one step further and after our scene, she addressed the director saying; “Wow! She’s obviously a professional.” It was so unexpected and a wonderful moment to hear that sincere compliment from an actor whose work I admire. DANIELLE MAGAZINE: What is your ultimate goal? CAROLINE REDEKOPP: To be an inspirtion to other actors as others have been inspirational to me by working on productions which have a positive impact on the world. And if that reaches only one person, then my job is done (who am I kidding, maybe a few more….! wink wink) And last but not least, to be cast as a regular in a TV series, maybe even a comedy. DANIELLE MAGAZINE: With so many challenges, what do you do to stay motivated? CAROLINE REDEKOPP: I stay creative and I love my dog, Dutchess! I always make time to paint, write, sing, dance, play guitar, write poetry and songs, and collaborate with other actors on creative projects, and experience the world outside of acting. DANIELLE MAGAZINE: How do you stay mentally tough to keep going? CAROLINE REDEKOPP: I am constantly developing my spiritual self to expand and grow as a spiritual being. DANIELLE MAGAZINE: Do you have fellow Canadians in Los Angeles that you hang out with--a support clan? CAROLINE REDEKOPP: It truly takes two countries to “raise” an actor. I have friends and family on both sides of the border who have been there for me and continue to be there for me in my journey - in life and in my career. If it were not for them, I would not have been able to stay the course. Their names are on my acceptance speech for when I receive my first Oscar or Emmy. And it will be one long list! Most importantly, the support of my fans lets me know I’m still on the right path.


DANIELLE DANIELLE MAGAZINE: Speaking of the right path, tell us, for all the women out there who wish to pack up and head to LA to pursue an acting career, what insight would you offer them? CAROLINE REDEKOPP: Don’t listen to the naysayers. Yes, the life of an actor looks more like the road less travelled, but if it is your passion, don’t let anyone stand in your way. When anyone has ever told me I couldn’t do something, I responded with, “Just watch me!” I’ve made a lot of sacrifices along the way and faced many challenges, obstacles and fears, but I wouldn’t change a thing. It made me the person I am today and I’m proud of that. It’s also added layers to my acting chops. The tears, the fears and the heartaches has built one hell of a strong, spiritual, and loving human experience I hope to share on the screen. And if someone doesn’t want to give you the opportunity you deserve, create it yourself. You have the power!

You can follow Caroline Redekopp’s career at www.carolineredekopp.com.

31


DANIELLE

32


DANIELLE

Schools & Media Complicit In The Destruction Of This Nation

The biggest problem with the Mainstream Media (MSM) is not just one that is based in objectivity.  The powers that be actually “sculpt” the media’s position and craft it to their own making, to end up being their mouthpiece at a minimum.  With the majority of news reports (mislabeled as such), the slant is no longer a balance between to opposite spectrums.  The newscasters, televised news broadcasts, the radio, and news media (newspapers, magazines, and their ilk) are no longer even platforms for the dissemination of information… they’re a product; and their productivity is determined by the handlers and controllers of the media and whether it fits inside of their overall objectives. There is a famous quote that is often overlooked: “Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”   -Lord Acton The interesting thing is this quote has many applications, varied in scope and encompassing a general truism that finds use with many things… reference to power, and also to corruptibility.  What Acton was

referring to, however, was actually the media. He was heaping subtle derision about the manner in which media and news found itself kowtowing to the powers in charge… allowing those powers – king, prime ministers, and presidents – to influence the media and squelch truth and objectivity.  The media (wanting to sell newspapers and still keep a front seat press box and all access passes) traded its objectivity for lucre and position.

the progressives strike at the root and have a completely different tree by the time those inculcated with such fallacies reach the age of voting and earning capacity for taxation purposes. Meanwhile, the stultified parents in the PTA meetings protest the changes in the curriculum that have already been placed in motion by federal legislation.  This is not a new concept, as illustrated with the following:

The problem also lies within the school system.  The public schools (as well as private) are rapidly “losing” the truth in their curriculum, which is being redacted on a daily basis.  The founders of the U.S. are portrayed in a negative light: all of their personal problems within their lives are magnified and even exacerbated.  The purpose is to destroy the United States of America in terms of perception and education, to create a shift in paradigm and public perception.

“We must start with the children – the seed corn – in order to grow them into what we wish.” -Adolf Hitler speaking in the Nuremburg Rallies

We had eight years of a Democratic administration under Clinton in which the attack on the established school curriculum, begun in the 1960’s, took root, and completely metastasized during these Obama years. By destroying the concept of America and how she was founded,

This concept is what we are facing now, as we have a generation that hold these untruths to be the norm and factual.  It is a forced paradigm shift to change the concept that the youth holds of America and destroy the potential for them to develop creative thought.  The curriculum (never truly being perfect, as there is no such thing) introduced children to generalities that could be expanded upon, for the desire of pure education is to introduce evidence and facts and enable someone to draw an opinion on their own regarding the matter. The concept of creative thought (not

33


DANIELLE in reference to artists and musicians, mind you) is to allow the student to ponder the “why’s” of a matter. Little by little this is being destroyed, but they are replacing it with a canned, sterilized curriculum that only rewards rote memory and the absorption of concepts alien to those originally in the schools. The media, then, is to feed controlled disinformation to the entire population.  This takes the form also of a plethora of useless information, such as who won on “Star Search,” or what some celebrity is wearing in attendance at the Oscars.  All useless information that keeps everyone consuming and prevents anyone from seeing the true state of the world as it is.  The news itself cannot be used to “dupe” everyone…that is why there are alternative media sites, and other sources of information not corrupted by “the thumb of the Duke” on the reports.  Still, take Fox News as an example. The manner in which Fox News reports is markedly different from the way it was 10 years ago.  You can see the capitulation of the newscasters as they begin to echo the platform of the establishment media, and reject objectivity and conservative programming to follow in the overall paradigm shift begun by the administration. We see it in the schools, as an entire generation is made to not feel any true identity except some “membership in the global community,” let alone the patriotism and pride in the U.S. as a place where dissenting views by the minority is allowed, and (prior to Obamacare) a free nation where you could go about on your own and do your own thing pretty much undisturbed. They are waiting for the generations that were brought up in an era of conservative actions and critical thought…. waiting for them to either die off or become so hopelessly outnumbered – by the new, sculpted generation, by illegal aliens, and by

34

influx of foreign thought and systems – that the demographics all change in their favor. The seeds have been planted.  The schools and the media are completely complicit in the destruction of this nation, along with their handlers.  It is an amazing thing that the country was so free as to allow the very people who are destroying it to come out with and force their socialist and progressive platforms on the country as a whole.  This is what is happening, and it is doubtful whether or not we will reverse the tide.  It can be done, but until then The-Powers-That-Be sculpt and form the public through the media and schools to make people into their own images, and those images are not good.   By Jeremiah Johnson


DANIELLE

35


DANIELLE

Classic Ottawa Rock Band MIGIZI take their show on the road. Ottawa band “MIGIZI” continues to impress audiences in their region, wherever they play. MIGIZI (the Algonquin word for Eagle) is a classic rock cover band that was formed in 2011 by Peter Masson. The five-member band is high energy consisting of a friendly and welcoming group of musicians that always impress the audience and pride themselves on getting folks up dancing. Like many bands, they have gone through some changes over the years, but always keep one goal in mind – to provide the best party music. This great group of guys always strives for the best sound. With two lead guitars, it allows them to play songs that other bands just cannot do with one guitar. Their list of songs is so vast there is something for everyone to enjoy taking audience members on a trip down memory lane. They have been told it is one hit after another and each set gets better than the first. It wasn’t long after they started playing that they were snatched up as the house band for La Brass in Aylmer, QC. They also frequently play the Carleton Tavern in Ottawa. Guests at both venues absolutely love their music. Word has gotten out in the Ottawa / Gatineau area about this hot band and they are becoming increasingly busy, with private gigs and weddings booked well over a year in advance. They have also started to write and record some original music, keeping the feel of the classic rock genre. If you get a chance to check this band out, do it… you will not regret it. You can check out their event dates on their website; http://www.migiziband.com

36


DANIELLE

37


DANIELLE

Zombie Economy Soon to Have its Zombie Epocalypse This past Thursday marked the oneyear anniversary of the US stock market’s death when  stocks saw their last high. Market bulls have spent a year looking like the walking dead. They’ve tried to push back up to  that distant high that means new life several times, but each time the market falls into a pit again. The market’s inability to rise without falling again  is  getting to be nerve racking for those who stayed in the market,  trying to make it  work for themselves. For Dennis Gartman, who writes the very influential Gartman Letter, last Wednesday was, in fact, one of the worst career days of his life:   Having been 150 Dow points higher and then only moments later to have traded down to where the Dow was suddenly 150 lower, the market finished effectively unchanged, with the Bulls and the Bears left scratching their heads and wondering aloud, “What the hell just happened?” …Yesterday was our worst day of the

38

year thus far, as that which we were long of fell and that which we were short of closed unchanged. Long ago we learned that when things go awry and do so as “majestically” as they did yesterday it is best to simplify, simplify and to simplify again. Getting smaller; getting less involved; curtailing positions in numbers and sizes is the only proper way to respond and so we did exactly that…. Yesterday was a disaster which we wish to put behind us, and by getting smaller and less widely involved we are in the process of doing so. (Zero Hedge) These are the  last gasps of a stock market (and economy) that is struggling to rise again to new highs, which it simply cannot do now that QE has been turned off and the oxygen tank  of zero interest is being slowly turned down. I’ve said it wouldn’t be able to, and it hasn’t. It’s spent a year proving I’m right about that, never  breaking  through that ceiling into a realm of new life.   The zombie “bull market” doesn’t know it’s dead   While Wednesday was a day for some to retrench and rethink their strategies, Thursday’s anniversary of that last (now very distant) market high was no cause of celebration either. Stocks jolted downward again — nearly a hundred points on the Dow. If you bought the market indexes a year ago and just sat on your investment, you’d be 4-5% poorer today. Yet, some still call this a “bull market.”

repeated hints of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in June. The bulls are back to their onetrack obsession with the Fed as being the only real money in town. Even the revival  oil prices failed to lift spirits. So, the Dow closed lower for its fourth week in a row. Yet, some still call this a “bull market.”

Earnings growth for companies in the S&P 500 has shrunk for three quarters in a row while companies piled up on debt to keep their stock prices from falling by cannibalistizing themselves with stock buybacks. As I wrote in another article, buybacks are ending. Their support for the stock market is rapidly deteriorating. Yet, some still call this a “bull market.”

Delinquencies in agricultural loans in the US right now are in equally bad shape due to prices that have been slumping as badly as oil. As a result, farmland in Illinois is now selling at 20-30% less than it was a year ago. Not a big help to heavy equipment manufacturers either. Here’s the past year for the Dow:    

Wall Street blew off news that Walmart (which has been closing stores left and right) reported significantly improve earnings and focused on

The pileup of corporate debt reached critical mass and is now a mushroom cloud. Since the close of 2014, delinquencies in commercial and industrial loans have spiked 124% to reach a point higher than they were in 2008 when Lehman Bros. crashed. The following chart shows where we stand in the commercial-industrial credit cycle. You can see that the last two times delinquencies rose this high, we were in or just entering a recession.  

Yet, some still call this a “bull market,” and they say they see no recession anywhere in sight.


DANIELLE

The Fed is stuck in low gear in its own quagmire

Does that look like a bull market to you? Since we are lower than where we were a year ago and have never once risen to where we were a year ago, it looks like a roller-coaster ride to nowhere to me. It’s time for this zombie economy to get a stake through its head so we can start building a real economy.   Caterpillar’s slow crawl toward death   Things are still going terribly bad for Caterpillar. During the trough of the Great Recession, Caterpillar posted nineteen months of falling sales. That was nothing compared to the “recovery.” After a revival in the first part of the Fed’s faulty recovery,  Caterpillar  slumped into global decline for 41 consecutive months. Sales fell more steeply during the Great Recession; but they have fallen more relentlessly over the last four years, and US sales fell faster in April than in March. Thus, Caterpillar has relied heavily on stock buybacks and boosted dividends to keep investors satisfied. As it goes with this bellwether, so it goes for most of the rest of heavy equipment manufacturers. Buybacks became the corporate norm that drove the illusion of a stock market boom since the end of 2009; but as explained  in the article referenced above, buybacks may be entering the autumn years of their decline. Caterpillar’s slow death crawl epitomizes the zombie economy that the Fed calls “recovery.”

Fed would find that its singular hike ended its illusion of recovery so that it would not be able to raise rates again. Half a year after the first rate hike, things clearly look worse than they did when the rate hike happened. Since I believed the stock market would crash after the first rate hike (as we saw in the worst January in stock market history), I said no rate hikes would be  possible after that. In fact, the Fed would find itself pressed to go back into stimulus mode as much as it would hate to do so … because we would begin to descend into the belly of the epocalypse.

Steven Major, global head of fixedincome research at HSBC,  thinks a Fed rate hike is “out of the question” for June and for a very long time to come:   If the Fed and others were to hike this year, there’s a material risk that they might have to reverse it next year. If that’s the case, then don’t do anything…. The market is now ready for a long, long time of very low rates. And it’s been painful because there are people that have been expecting the Fed to do what it’s said it’s going to do. So, the Fed really wants to hike rates, but it can’t…. So, I think that we’re stuck with very low yields for a very long time…. I’m not forecasting the hike. I think it’s out of the question; but the fact is everybody else has now come around to the same view. (Bloomberg)   Bonds have become a zombie economy, too, and the Fed has become  the parade master of the walking dead. Stocks slobber and bonds drool over the chuck-holed street that could have been fixed as a stimulus work project with the money that went to boost banks. Major’s  description of where we are now matches my own prediction last year that we’d see one Fed rate hike at the end of fall in 2015 and then the

I think the Fed began talking up rate hikes last week in order to boost the illusion that it actually can raise rates (so people won’t think all is lost), but it will  find external reasons (reasons outside the US economy) for saying it would not be “wise” to raise rates  at present. I think the Fed will choose to exercise “patience” in the face of these international pressures.  By hinting at the likelihood of a rate hike now, they may get  a little euphoric market boost in June if they do not raise rates now that they’ve created some fear that they will. As Majors says, the Fed desperately wants to raise rates in order to achieve credibility and prove its recovery an ongoing success. I believe that desire is so intense that my prediction that it can’t raise rates doesn’t mean that it won’t. If it succumbs to that desire, it will be a huge mistake (in terms of the Fed’s own recovery illusion). It means we’ll see the next leg of this ongoing crash a little sooner because it will be the Fed who finally put the stake through the zombie’s head. Based on its repeated declarations that a rate hike is dependent on inflation and job data, the Fed risks seriously losing face if it does not raise rates this June because consumer prices saw their biggest increase in three years in April due to gasoline rising and rents along with some increase in medical and food costs. CPI rose almost half a percent in one

39


DANIELLE month. Job growth, while wavering, is still hovering in the Fed’s desired data range. Whether the Fed raises rates or not, the zombie economy is  going down. The actions of all central banks are becoming increasingly desperate, which is not what you’d expect if the past seven years had been some form of recovery. You would expect the most desperate actions to have been taken at the bottom of the crisis with stimulus measures gradually being weened away as things improved. Instead, we see stimulus measures becoming outlandishly desperate everywhere but in the US, and the US will soon find it is not immune to any of this. The deputy governor  of Sweden’s central bank, Cecelia Skingsley, described  how desperate things are getting for central banks all over the world:   “If monetary policy seems to have lost its magic touch, what can central banks do?” …Despite negative interest rates and other monetary policy stimulation, inflation is far below target in many countries. Scope for monetary policy seems, quite simply, to be shrinking…. There may arise situations in which [smaller]  countries’ central banks become highly dependent on the actions of larger central banks…. Alongside cutting the policy rate to below zero and purchasing securities, so-called helicopter money could provide a hypothetical path to take to increase scope for monetary policy.  “…Considering the difficulties that are weighing many of the world’s economies down, I think that it is wise to discuss the different possibilities, without closing any doors.” (Riksbank)   We increasingly hear this  bizarre talk from desperate central banks all over the world: “It may be time to print money out of thin air and throw it  out of helicopters to the masses as the last resort  to save the global economy.” The Fed is stuck in its own quagmire … as are all the central banks of the

40

world. The parade of walking dead has circled around them, and they will have to throw them some rotting meat to save their own souls. That’s about as good as this economy gets. I think you can attribute the stock market’s bounce back from our January crash to this being the most extraordinary election year in our lifetime. When have we seen an antiestablishment candidates  who are barely members of  their own parties rise to such prominence? The establishment is desperate. Anything and everything will be tried behind the scenes in both parties to keep Trump and Sanders from appearing correct about the economy and to make sure that, if the economy falls, it happens during their watch if they do get elected so that the establishment can say, “See, we were right. Now come back to your senses and vote with the establishment.” So, I expect the summer to be a topsyturvy ride as the parade marshals battle their own economies to keep the zombies moving through the election cycle … if they can. I have no idea of they will succeed, but it should be interesting.   The China Syndrome   An article last week in the politburo’s People’s Daily, which many think was written by China’s president, declared war on debt and the “fantasy” of perpetual stimulus. The article stated that bankruptcies need to be allowed to run their course from this point forward to weed out the bad debt and that the nation must endure hardship now, or the hardship will certainly be much worse in the near future. (A course the United States should have endured seven years ago, and we might have a real recovery.) The article described debt as the “the original sin” and warned of a financial crisis if the government does not stop its knee-jerk stimulus every time markets fall. Remarkably, the Chinese seem to have become far smarter

about capitalism than capitalists, stating, “It is neither possible nor necessary to force economic growing by levering up.” That’s right. You cannot build true, enduring wealth over an everexpanding chasm of debt as a foundation. If this marks a pivot by the Chinese government, given the imperious tone of the anonymous article, it will set off an international chain reaction. No one seems sure whether this article was a last hurrah by reformers within the government or a dire warning from the man at top that those within government had better start carrying out directives. A day after the article was published, President Xi lashed out at “careerists and conspirators existing in our Party and undermining the Party’s governance.” He also denounced the resurgent property bubble and excesses in government. His outcry lends support to the idea that the article came from him or had his blessing. Despite earlier efforts to curb China’s  national housing bubble that created housing to nowhere, new housing starts in April rose 26% (yoy), and prices jumped as much as 63%.  Meanwhile rot in China’s $7.7 trillion bond market is spreading like an ameba that has engulfed  major Chinese ship builder Evergreen, whose containers are seen all over the world. Increasing bond troubles include the suspension of nine bonds issued by China Railways Materials, the  first of China’s major socially owned enterprises to show signs of slippage into default. Given this week’s article and the president’s subsequent rant, belief that government support may intervene in the next great Sino crash as it did last August may be faulty. Sounds like the president is ready to let the dead … die.  Ambrose EvanPritchard believes this storm from the orient will gather by this coming fall …


DANIELLE or sooner. S&P 500 and Dow appear to have the zombies’ bite   On a lesser note first, both the S&P 500 and the Dow started kicking the dust again last week, going negative for the year … at least briefly. The old adage “sell in May” may prove to be the right dictum once again, as stocks typically perform poorly during the summer. January may prove to be predictive for  the year, too, as declining January’s have tended to be. Besides going briefly negative for the year, the  S&P 500 staged one of its most dangerous flags (according to those who love charts). The dreaded “death cross” happened last  week when the fifty-day moving average dropped below the 200-day moving average:   This move is called a “Death Cross” and for good reason. The last time it happened was in 2008, right before the entire market CRASHED: (Zero Hedge)  

The time before that was right before the tech bubble burst near the turn of the millennium. The market appears ready for another fall off the cliff even if the Fed doesn’t stab it in the head with a rate increase.   Other signs that the zombie epocalypse lies just ahead   The Silicon Valley real estate bubble has finally burst, following the silicone tech bubble that burst when the FANG stocks began to implode late last year and early this. Naturally the collapse  of the

property bubble lags by a few months the numerous layoffs that occurred in high-tech companies like Yahoo.   The seemingly inexhaustible well of very high-end buyers has proven exhaustible after all. The peak is behind us, and that’s becoming clearer and clearer to builders and buyers. (Zero Hedge)

George Soros did well in seeing the crash into the Great Recession, and he’s now preparing for the next big crash.   Billionaire George Soros prepared last quarter for gloomy times, dialing back his U.S. stock investments by more than a third, betting against the equities while banking on gold…. The firm disclosed owning bearish options contracts on 2.1 million shares…. Soros, who built a $24 billion fortune through savvy market wagers, has warned of risks stemming from China, arguing its debt-fueled economy resembles the U.S. in 2007-08 at the onset of the global financial crisis…. [saying]  a hard landing in the Asian nation was “practically unavoidable,” adding that such a slump would worsen global deflationary pressures, drag down stocks and boost U.S. government bonds….  (Bloomberg)   Soros’s former chief strategist, billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller, is also bullish on gold. Earlier this month, Druckenmire made a massive change from being a roaring market bull to a growling bear:   “Three years ago on this stage

I … drew a bullish intermediate conclusion as the weight of the evidence suggested the tidal wave of central bank money worldwide would still propel financial assets higher. I now feel the weight of the evidence has shifted the other way; higher valuations, three more years of unproductive corporate behavior, limits to further easing and excessive borrowing from the future suggest that the bull market is exhausting itself…. Volatility in global equity markets over the past year, which often precedes a major trend change, suggests that their risk/reward is negative….””   Druckenmire averaged annual returns of 30 percent from 1986 through 2010. The SEC may be waking up just in time to crash an artificial rise in the stock market. It reported this month that it intends to go after major corporations that  “inflate their sales results and employ customized metrics that stray too far from accounting rules.” Since straying from GAAP seems to have become the only way companies can show any profit, this could kill that zombie practice, too,… if  the SEC actually follows through.   Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Richard Fisher, offered this sage (sarcasm alert) advice last week: “I would be prepared when they move—and I hope they move sometime in June— there’ll be a settling in of the market place. There will be a correction. Suck it up. Deal with it. That’s reality.” (Newsmax)   Nothing pops  a delusion quite as quickly as a return to truth. I would be surprised if an SEC change resulted in any changes in June, as reining in this kind of  activity will take months to start showing up in corporate reports; but it will be a reality check sometime this year if the SEC gets serious about it. And last  week a write-

41


DANIELLE down of Puerto Rico’s $70 billion debt default became reality as Republicans and Democrats joined on a plan:   All of the political talking heads are supportive of the bill, with House Speaker Paul Ryan saying that “the stability of the territory is in danger….  Jack Lew [US Secretary of the Treasury] chimed in …  telling bondholders that “the reality is if the economy of Puerto Rico doesn’t come back, the bondholders are not going to do well…. As we have repeated, the entire tone of the process is reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis when Hank Paulson threatened Armageddon if nothing was done to bail the banks out. This time, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew was sending out letters warning that if no restructuring framework were to be set forth, a series of “cascading defaults” would be touched off. So, once again a path forward has been created that will simply wipe the slate clean.” (Zero Hedge)   Federal Reserve working on the economy: “Don’t worry; we have this under control.” We don’t know what will happen with a Brexit or whether a Grexit will raise its ugly head again or whether immigration tensions will spontaneously combust in Europe or the United State’s porous border has already allowed a terrorist invasion; but I think the frying pan will certainly be sizzling this summer to cook up the last of the market’s bully beef for the bears to feast upon. The increasingly scarce market bulls are dead cattle walking thanks to zombie economics. . By David Haggith  

42


DANIELLE

43


WW3

DANIELLE

Fighters From Turkey A Attacking Targets

Michael Snyder

The ceasefire in Syria is a joke. Turkish military units continue to mass along the border, and militants are pouring across the border to attack targets in northern Syria. The Prime Minister of Turkey is now openly admitting that his government is supporting the militants that are trying to overthrow the Syrian government, and the Turkish government has also made it abundantly clear that they have no plans to stop shelling the Kurds on the other side of the border. So despite the “ceasefire”, the truth is that the threat of World War 3 breaking out in the Middle East is greater than ever. At times it is difficult to see the dividing line between the Turkish military and the radical jihadists that are hopping back and forth across the border with the full support of the Turkish government. Over the weekend, militants from Turkey that crossed over into northern Syria were supported by artillery fire from the Turkish military as they attacked a key Kurdish town… In the Raqqa province, a group of some 100 fighters crossed into Syria from Turkey. The group later joined forces with other militants and attacked the Kurdish town of Tell Abyad. The 250-strong group was supported by artillery fire from the Turkish territory, a fact that Russia said the US should explain. The Kurdish YPG militia fended off the attack, the report said. This is an act of war, and yet the Obama administration does not seem to mind. If Turkey will not even honor the ceasefire, what hope is there that anything will be able to stop them from acting so aggressively? At this point, the Turks are not even pretending anymore. Just the other day, Turkey’s Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu openly admitted that his nation is backing the militants that are trying to overthrow the Assad regime… “How would they be able to defend themselves if there was no Turkish support of the Syrian people? … If there’s today a real moderate Syrian opposition, it’s because of the Turkish support. If today the [Assad] regime isn’t able to control all the territories [it’s] because of Turkish and some other countries’ support,” he told Al-

44

Jazeera earlier this week. Obviously this ceasefire is not going to work. Turkey has not even pressed pause in their relentless campaign against the Assad regime and the Kurds. The Turkish government has become absolutely obsessed with their neighbor to the south, and that is a very dangerous thing for the rest of the planet. The only way that Turkey, Saudi Arabia and their allies are going to be able to win the war now is to conduct a massive ground invasion of Syria. Such a move would lead to direct conflict with Iran, Hezbollah and the Russians, and since Turkey is a member of the NATO alliance, that could threaten to drag the U.S. and western Europe into the war as well. The following comes from the International Business Times… The wider consequences of any disagreement between Ankara and Moscow could lead to a standoff between Russia and NATO. Jen Stoltenberg, secretary general of the Brusselsbased organization, said in late 2015 that it would be prepared to defend the member state of Turkey if it were attacked by Russia. “NATO will defend you, NATO is on the ground, NATO is ready,”


DANIELLE

Are Pouring Into Syria And Despite The Ceasefire

Stoltenberg said in the aftermath of repeated breaches of Turkish airspace by Russian jets and just one month before Ankara shot down a Russian jet in November. The 28-country alliance is bound by Article 5 of its treaty to collectively defend its members. “Collective defense means that an attack against one ally is considered as an attack against all allies,” the article states. Saudi Arabia does not appear ready to back down either. The Saudis continue to reiterate their position that either Assad must go peacefully or he will be removed by force… Saudi Arabia is prepared to send troops to Syria if President Bashar Assad doesn’t resign and leave his war-torn nation peacefully. Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir warned Sunday that his country will take military action if Syria violates the terms of a ceasefire agreement. “I believe that abiding by the truce would be an important indicator of the seriousness to reach a peaceful solution to the Syrian crisis that would include setting up a transitional council and the transfer of power from Bashar to this council,” he said during a joint press conference with his Danish counterpart Kristian Jensen in the Saudi capital of Riyadh. Al-Jubeir warned that Saudi Arabia has prepared a “Plan B.” If “the coalition decided to send ground troops into Syria, Saudi Arabia is ready to contribute,” he said.

The goal since 2011 has been to get rid of Assad so that Syria could become a full-fledged Sunni nation with a Sunni government. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies have poured enormous amounts of money and resources into this conflict, and they don’t appear to be willing to walk away now that the tide of the war has turned. In fact, how the Saudis have been behaving lately has been causing a tremendous amount of anxiety in the Middle East… Saudi Arabia’s recent actions have caused a great deal of anxiety within its region. On February 4, a military spokesman suggested that Saudi Arabia was ready to send troops ground troops to fight ISIS in Syria. A week later Saudi Arabia announced that it will send combat aircraft and soldiers to Turkey to participate in the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS. Three days later the Saudis launched “Northern Thunder,” described as the “largest military exercise in the history of the Middle East.” Participants from 20 countries sent troops to the maneuvers run over three weeks in Hafar al Batin in northern Saudi Arabia, not far from the Iraqi and Kuwaiti border. According to a Saudi media outlet, some 350,000 troops were expected to participate in the maneuvers. So if Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies are preparing for war, then what is the purpose of the ceasefire? Well, first of all the goal was to stop the bleeding. The Sunni militants were losing ground steadily, and this pause will enable them to regroup and get resupplied. Secondly, this pause in the action gives “the coalition” time to move forces into position for a potential ground invasion of Syria. But more than anything else, this ceasefire seems to be a trap. It appears to be inevitable that the U.S. and other western powers will accuse Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and the Syrian government of breaking the ceasefire, thus providing “legal justification” for “the coalition” to militarily intervene. Watch developments in Syria very closely. Many had hoped that this ceasefire would bring the five year civil war to an end, but the truth is that it could just be setting the stage for something far, far bigger.

45


D A N I E L L E

CHINA

26

DANIELLE

With a series of edicts, speeches and martial ceremonies,

President Xi Jinping has over the past six months unveiled

China’s biggest military overhaul since the aftermath of the Korean War. The plan seeks to transform the 2.3-million-member People’s Liberation Army, which features 21st-century hardware but an outdated, Soviet-inspired command structure, into a fighting force capable of winning a modern war. China is shifting from a “large country to a large and powerful one,” Xi explained in November. The restructuring will be a major focus of the country’s new defense budget, which will be announced Saturday as the annual

Out are military cooks, hospital workers, journalists and some 10,000 members of the PLA’s famed troops of singers and dancers. Even so, China’s military will remain by far the world’s largest, with more than 600,000 more active service members than the U.S., according to estimates by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

National People’s

Flowers from a fan? Peng Liyuan, aka Mrs Xi Jinping, belts out a paean to China in Henan Province in 2004. Photographer: ChinaFotoPress/ ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images

Congress gets under way in Beijing. “A lot of countries do military reforms, but they are rarely as tectonic as what we are seeing in China,” said Dean Cheng, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation in Washington who specializes in military capabilities. “Any single one of these elements constitutes a bureaucratic overhaul of the first order.” Here are the key elements of Xi’s plan: Fewer Singers, More Sailors The first piece of the overhaul — announced by Xi during a grand military parade through Tiananmen Square on Sept. 3 — calls for eliminating 300,000 PLA personnel by 2017. While Xi presented the cutbacks as proof of China’s commitment to peace, they’ll largely target non-combat personnel and should make the country’s forces more focused and efficient.

46

The reorganization will also chip away at the army’s dominance as modern mechanized warfare requires far fewer conventional troops. China needs more pilots, sailors, commandos and drone operators to achieve ambitions of projecting force farther afield. Who’s the Boss? Advanced military actions such as intercepting rival aircraft, carrying out drone strikes and using special forces to extract hostages, demand the sort of close collaboration China’s army-centric military has lacked. Xi intends to fix that by reorganizing the armed forces into five branches


27

DANIELLE

under a joint-command structure modeled after that of the U.S. In addition to the existing army, PLA Air Force and PLA Navy, a new Rocket Force will be responsible for China’s nuclear arsenal and conventional missiles while a Strategic Support Force will oversee cyberwarfare and protect China’s financial system from attack. Redrawing the Map

Xi Jinping confers military flags on the five newly-established theater commands of the PLA. Photographer: Li Gang/Xinhua via Getty Images

Consolidating Power

As part of the move toward a unified command, China consolidated its seven military regions into five “Theater Commands” or “Battle Zones,” with each service reporting to a single commander, a move first reported by Bloomberg News in September. How these zones will function remains unclear. “A lot of energy will be spent figuring out who commands who; who supports who; and most importantly who controls which budgets?” said Felix Chang, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia. Many will be watching to see how far beyond China’s borders the new zones reach and how the revamped military map will shape PLA activities in regional hotspots such as the South China Sea.

Xi is also centralizing his authority by breaking up the military’s massive, back-office bureaucracy. Four existing general departments will be divided into 15 smaller units responsible for everything from training and logistics to punishing corrupt officers and ensuring soldiers get sufficient education in Marxist ideology. They’ll all report directly to the Central Military Commission, a Communist Party body led by Xi. “It may be that this is a means for Xi to increase his support within the PLA, as all these new general officer billets will be filled with his people,” said Cheng, of the Heritage Foundation. Success of the reform plan will depend heavily on Xi’s capacity to overcome entrenched interests in the PLA, which has long enjoyed a privileged status as the guarantor of Communist Party rule. In a sign of the army’s continued influence, all five of the commanders chosen for the new battle zones hail from the ground forces. One thing Xi has made clear: he has no plans to transfer control over the PLA to the government from the party, something foreign military experts say is needed to professionalize the services. --With assistance from Mira Rojanasakul, Ting Shi and Keith Zhai. Used with permission of Bloomberg L.P. Copyright© 2016. All rights reserved

John Doe / Occupation John Doe / Occupation

47


D ADANIELLE N I E L L E

30

HOUSING

BUBBLE

The Canadian housing market has done extremely well for a very long time. As such, many people expect the trend to continue. That said, there are major vulnerabilities in the Canadian economy that pose a threat to the housing market’s continued success. In the following report we will examine the economy, the financial position of households, the housing market and the risks facing it. Lastly, we will analyze the mortgage market and Mortgage Investment Corporations (MICs). We are not convinced that the housing market is about to crash. Nonetheless, we remain extremely cautious. Canadian Housing & Mortgage Investment Corporations – Overview 2015 was a rough year for Canada as falling commodities, specifically oil, filtered through to the rest of the economy. In real terms, GDP has been almost flat since late 2014 – shortly after oil started its long decline. The economy, however, is still holding up. Part of the reason for its resilience has been the strength of the housing market. Two regions have been leading the pack – the Greater Vancouver Area (GVA) and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). According to the Canadian Real Estate Assohome prices increased by 17.83% and 10.29% from Nov’14 to Nov’15 in the GVA and GTA, respectively.

48

2015 was a rough year for Canada as falling commodities, specifically oil, filtered through to the rest of the economy. In real terms, GDP has been almost flat since late 2014 – shortly after oil started its long decline


DANIELLE

31

And that is just for the past year. We will get into more details laterin this report. For now, it is important to realize that the Canadian housing market has been booming for a long time. There are, however, serious risks to its continued progress that we wish to explore… Excessive Debt Our dependence on commodities is one thing. Our reliance on debt is another. The first “vulnerability” the Bank of Canada (BoC) mentioned in its Financial System Review for Dec’15 was excess household debt. Remarkably low interest rates have encouraged borrowing. What is concerning is that individuals have been borrowing to spend on housing. As a result, debt growth has outpaced income growth. The following chart indicates that the debt-toincome ratio (red line) has continued to edge higher:

This trend calls into question the sustainability of rising home prices. When prices go up, people are required to borrow more to afford housing. This makes them more vulnerable to corrections and bear markets because asset values can fall while debts values remain the same. More debt is not always a bad thing. Unfortunately, according to the BoC, “debt has become more concentrated in the hands of more highly indebted younger households, who may have less capacity to cope financially with a job loss or an unexpected interest rate increase”. The next graph confirms that a large share of the increase in household debt is attributable to highly indebted households under the age of 45.

49


DDANIELLE A N I E L L E

32

For the purposes of this report, highly indebted households are those whose debt-to-income ratios exceed 350% (or the pink and red segments in the previous image). These households held ~21% of all household debt from 2012-14. This is concerning because their financial positions tend to be relatively bad. The ensuing table demonstrates that highly indebted households: 1 Tend to have lower income and wealth, 2 Are younger, 3 Are less likely to have a bachelor’s degree and 4 Are more likely to live in BC, AB or ON. These numbers are problematic because adverse economic events will reduce their ability to service their debts.

Overheating Housing Debt and housing are inextricably linked, so it comes as no surprise that the BoC also highlights housing as an area of concern. Mortgages represented more than three-quarters of the increase in household debt from 2012-14. The circular issue for Canadian housing is that leverage is driving house prices, which necessitates more leverage. The danger is, of course, that falling house prices lead to rising defaults (and vice versa). In that case, collateral values would drop, resulting in losses not only for the homeowners, but also for lenders (principal) and mortgage insurers. Nonetheless, the Canadian housing market is not homogeneous. For one, there is a trifurcation among 1) British Columbia and Ontario, 2) Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador and 3) The rest of Canada. The following diagram shows that resale activity and price growth have been much stronger in BC and ON than anywhere else. It is also important to note that weakness in the commodityrelated economy is filtering through to housing. In AB, SK and NL, annualized resales are down and prices are contracting.

50

Moreover, rental vacancy rates in those areas are rising. Another notable fact is that the GVA and GTA account for one-third of the Canadian housing market’s value and onethird of the mortgage market’s value. Higher property values and incomes are to be expected in big cities. That said, if one or both of those regions begin to roll over economically then the rest of the country and the financial system will be under pressure.

Major Risks As we have outlined, the Canadian economy and housing market appear vulnerable. That is not to say that we are about to go into a prolonged recession; however, there are substantial risks that could push us in that direction. One risk is that mortgage rates will rise, escalating the cost of debt service. This would be negative for the economy because it would put even more pressure on our highly indebted households. However, in our view, that is not very likely. Although the U.S. is moving towards tighter monetary policy, Canada is not. Moreover, 5-year yields, which most mortgage rates are tied to, are low and seem well contained. Our economy is already suffering because of weakness in the oil patch. As such, we do not expect the Bank of Canada to raise rates anytime soon. The other risk is that the country goes into recession as a result of continued weakness in commodities and lower demand from the emerging markets. In this case, broader and increasing unemployment would reduce the ability of households to service their debts. This would be particularly bad for the highly leveraged households we referred to earlier. Our view is that housing is increasingly being purchased using a “cash flow” model whereby consumers determine the total cost of the property based on their ability to service the monthly mortgage payments, disregarding the absolute levels of debt they will take on to do so. A purchaser who is able to spend $1000/month on a mortgage can service a $170,000 mortgage at 5% (with a 25-year amortization period). Drop the interest rate to 2.5%, and that same $1000/month now services anextpage $230,000 mortgage. A standard 25% down payment would drive the price of a house from $266,600 to $306,000. And that assumes the purchaser does not choose to spend more than the $1000/ month. Low interest costs have made housing seem more affordable than it actually is. As you can see in the following


DANIELLE chart, the interest only debt service ratio (red line), which measures interest payments relative to debt, has been in decline since Q1 of 1990. Meanwhile, the total debt service ratio (blue line), which includes both principal and debt, has been relatively flat for the past eight years. This means that people are taking on, and paying for, more principal than they did in the past. The CMHC has made some real steps to curb this by limiting amortization periods to 25 years and by increasing minimum required down payments. Both of these actions force borrowers to pay down their debts faster. Even so, the reality is that debt loads are already very high. Mortgage rates are determined by the bond market. With the benchmark Canada 5-year bond yield at 0.65%, borrowing rates could go lower, but not by much. While we don’t foresee materially higher rates in the near term, we feel the tailwind of dropping rates is played out. A weaker employment backdrop would make debt service even more difficult than it already is. If that transpired then we would expect defaults to rise and home prices to fall. That would have a negative impact on household wealth with debt/ asset ratios rising due to falling assets. This would also be negative for consumption since rising defaults would cause both lenders and spenders to retrench. Economic weakness is evident in Alberta and Saskatchewan. If it spreads to the rest of the country then we would be especially cautious about the housing market. The Mortgage Market As of May 2015, the total amount of mortgages outstanding was $1.5 trillion, 87% of which was residential. The vast majority (85-90%) of these mortgages are originated by federally or provincially regulated entities. Only ~5% are originated by unregulated lenders. Still, mortgage credit growth at less-regulated entities continues to be strong. This is worrisome because, for these lenders, there are no legislated reserve requirements or limitations on LTV ratios. As such, it is reasonable to assume that they deal with riskier mortgages . Mortgage Investment Corporations Mortgage investment corporations (MICs) account for the majority of unregulated mortgage lending in Canada. Fundamental Research Corporation built a database of 72 entities that operate as MICs or have similar structures. They found that their total holdings amount to at least $6.74 billion or 0.45% of the total market. MICs specialize in short term (6 to 24 months), high yield mortgages. At least 40% of their assets must be invested in residential mortgages, cash and CDIC insured deposits. They pay no corporate tax and act as

33

a flow through entity – i.e. they payout 100% of their income as distributions to investors (who are left with the tax burden). As such, the value of their shares should remain the same unless they suffer capital losses. MICs earn interest and fees (origination, renewal and cancelation) from borrowers. In order to fund themselves, MICs borrow from banks and issue equity to investors. We consider MICs riskier than other housing derivatives for reasons we will address later in this paper. Still, there are multiple differences between firms. We are building a proprietary database which compares both private and public MICs on a variety of metrics. Here is a brief summary of our findings: MICs vary in terms of… • Fund size: Some public firms are closing in on $500 million AUM while other private ones have fewer than $50 million under management • The number of loans: Some firms have hundreds of them while others have fewer than 30 • Allocations towards first and second mortgages: First mortgages are safer than second mortgages because they represent a priority claim on the property that secures the mortgage • Average loan-to-value ratios (LTV): Range from ~35% to >70% • Average loan size: Ranges from <$100,000 to $7,500,000 • Average term: Ranges from 0.6 to 4.9 years • Geographic exposure: Most companies tend to focus on Ontario, but to varying degrees Like all investments, MICs vary in quality. Some are geared to maximize income while others emphasize capital preservation. Even so, we are cautious on the space as a whole. The two biggest risks for MICs are non-performing loans (NPLs) and fraud. These firms have been performing well in recent years; however, it is important to consider the underlying fundamentals of real estate in general. The Canadian housing market has been in a bull market for a long time. If unemployment rises and home prices fall then it is reasonable to assume that the number of NPLs will increase. Fraud is also an elevated risk because of the lack of oversight in the unregulated market – both on the lending side and the investment side. We are also skeptical about MICs for structural reasons. One issue is that they are reliant on financing to grow. In addition, managers have an incentive to grow their asset base because they are mostly paid based on AUM. Since all profits are paid out, asset growth has to come from making new loans. This makes MICs vulnerable to falling demand from investors, rising borrowing and financing costs and waning support from the banks. Another problem is a lack of loan-loss reserves. The Office of the Superintendent of Finance (OSFI), the regulator overseeing the MIC structure, requires that substantially all profits are paid out to investors, leaving little in the way

51


DANIELLE

D A N I E L L E

34

of reserves to protect against defaults. If defaults rise then mortgage values will be impaired and MICs will have limited means to protect their holdings. In our opinion, that would result in immediate gating (when the fund does not allow redemptions). For example, one of the firms we looked at had a $3.6 million provision for losses at the end of Q3’15 vs. $459 million of mortgages receivable. Conclusion Canada is vulnerable because its households are heavily indebted and its housing market is overheated. The CMHC just released its quarterly Housing Market Assessment report, which found the following among its conclusions: “Overvaluation and overbuilding are the most prevalent problematic conditions observed across the 15 centres covered by the HMA. Overvaluation is detected in 8 centres

52

while overbuilding is detected in 7”. The major risk is that the economy falters and unemployment rises, leading to deterioration in the household’s ability to service their monthly mortgage payments. In terms of MICs, we remain guarded. We would not advise chasing for yield at the expense of stringent lending standards, and would favour the most transparent structures as well. Yes, there are vast differences in quality across the space. Nonetheless, we would expect them to underperform relative to other housing investments if and when the market begins to weaken. James Price, Shane Obata and Richardson GMP


DANIELLE

Global Financial Turmoil A Severe Worldwide Economic Recession in 2016-17 :

“May you live in interesting times.” Popular curse, purported to be a translation of a traditional Chinese curse

major developed and emerging stock markets, dropping more than 20 percent, as compare to early 2015. For sure, there will be oversold rallies in the coming weeks and months, but one can expect more trouble ahead.

“The sources of deflation are not a mystery. Deflation is in almost all cases a side effect of a collapse of aggregate demand —a drop in spending so severe that producers must cut prices on an ongoing basis in order to find buyers. Likewise, the economic effects of a deflationary episode, for the most part, are similar to those of any other sharp decline in aggregate spending—namely, recession, rising unemployment, and financial stress.” Ben S. Bernanke (1953- ), on November 21, 2002 “I’m about to repeat what I said at this time last year and the year before… Sooner or later a crash is coming and it may be terrific. The vicious circle will get in full swing and the result will be a serious business depression. There may be a stampede for selling which will exceed anything that the Stock Exchange has ever witnessed. Wise are those investors who now get out of debt.” Roger Babson (1875-1967), on September 5, 1929

Many commentators are saying that the epicentre of this unfolding financial and economic crisis is in China, with the Shanghai Composite Index beginning to plummet at the beginning of the year. In my view, reality is more complex and even though China’s financial and economic problems are contributing to the collapse in commodity prices, the epicenter of the crisis is still in Washington D.C.

Image: Author Prof. RodrigueTremblay The onset of 2016 has been most chaotic for global financial markets with, so far, a severe stock market correction. As a matter of fact, the first month of 2016 has witnessed the most severe drop in financial stocks ever, with the MSCI All-Country World Stock Index, which measures

That is because the current unfolding crisis is essentially a continuation of the 2007-08 financial crisis which has been temporarily suspended and pushed into the future by the U.S. central bank, the Fed, with its aggressive and unorthodox monetary policy of multiple rounds of quantitative easing (QE), i.e. buying huge quantities of financial assets from commercial mega-banks and other institutions, including mortgagebacked securities, with newly created money. As a consequence, the Fed’s balance sheet went from a little more than one trillion dollars in 2008 to

53


DANIELLE some four and a half trillion dollars when the quantity easing program was ended in October 2014. Other central banks have followed the Fed example, especially the central bank of Japan and the European central bank, which also adopted quantity easing policies in monetizing large amounts of financial assets. Why did the Bernanke Fed adopt such an aggressive monetary policy in 2008? Essentially for three reasons: First, the lame-duck Bush administration in 2008 was clueless about what to do with the financial crisis that had started with the de facto failure of Bear Stearns in the spring of 2008 and of Merrill Lynch in early September 2008, culminating on September 15, 2008, with the failure of the large global investment bank of Lehman Brothers. So the U.S. central bank felt that it had to step in. In fact, it financed the merger of the two first failed mega-banks with the JPMorgan Chase bank and the Bank of America respectively. (For different reasons, it did not intervene in the same way when the Lehman Brothers bank failed.) Secondly, bankers who have a huge influence in the way the Fed is managed did not want the U.S. government to nationalize the American mega-banks in financial difficulties, as it had been done in the 1989 when the George H. Bush administration established the government-owned Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) to take over some 747 insolvent savings and loans thrift banks. Thirdly, the Bernanke Fed was very worried that the 2007-08 banking crisis would lead to a Japanese-style deflation that would wreak havoc with an overleveraged economy. The hope was to avoid a devastating debtdeflation economic depressionlike the one suffered in the 1930s. By injecting so much liquidity in the system, the Bernanke Fed created a  gigantic financial bubble in stocks and bonds, even though the real economy has grown at a somewhat languishing 2 percent growth

54

rate. Stock prices went into the stratosphere while interest rates fell as bond prices rose. Last December 16, the Fed announced officially that it will no longer blow into the financial balloons and that it was raising shortterm interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis, setting  the target range for the federal funds rate to between 1/4 to 1/2 percent. This was a signal that the financial party was over. And what’s more, this means that the stock market and the bond market will once again go in different directions, as a reflection of the state of the real economy, no matter what the Fed does. Since 2008, the U.S. Fed has painted itself into a financial corner from which I personally felt it would be difficult to extricate itself. Indeed, it would be extremely difficult to correct the financial bubbles it has created —as an unintended consequence of salvaging the mega-banks in creating trillions of free money — without damaging the real economy of production and employment. If global stock markets collapse and if price deflation accelerates, making it more difficult to service the debt of consumers, corporations, and government alike, a repeat on a larger scale of what has happened in  Japan  over the last twenty-five years can be feared. This, at the very least, could lead to a global economic recession in 2016-17. If we go back in history, it could also be a repeat of the 1937-38 crash and recession, eight years after the crash and financial crisis of 1929-32. One thing can be made clear: The creation of the Fed in 1913, as a semi-public American central bank, has not prevented the occurrence of financial crises. It has, however, been a boon to large banks because it has served as an instrument to socialize their losses. Stay tuned. Dr. Rodrigue Tremblay, an economist, is the author of the book “The Code for Global Ethics, Ten Humanist Principles”,


55

DANIELLE

Lavender’s New Testament

www.lavendersnewtestament.com

Lavender’s New Testament offers a deeper look into the Word of God! The original Greek Text clearly reflected in English! “For me, the Lavender Translation brings me the Gospel message as it was originally written and meant to be understood by the New Testament writers, and as it actually was understood by the original recipients. The Lavender Translation gives us for the first time a readable linguistically and doctrinally accurate translation which makes it possible for every reader to really get back to the Bible!” -Jerome H. Smith “Plain to the English reader”

“ Scholarship of integrity...”

“Fascinating and accurate work...”

“If you seek and value truth, you will appreciate the truth in translation now provided by the Lavender’s New Testament translation. Jesus said you will know the truth and the truth will make you free. He also stated “Your word is truth.” We all need to learn to value truth above our traditions, creeds, denominations, and theological predispositions and preferences. The standard for truth is clearly the Bible. That is why it is imperative that we have an accurate and truthful translation of the New Testament that clearly reflects in English the distinctions preserved under Divine inspiration in the original Greek text. I highly commend The Case for a New Translation and Lavender’s New Testament which it introduces, because at last Lavender’s New Testament makes these distinctions plain to the English reader.”

“For more than fifty years I have known the author of Lavender’s New Testament (LNT) and his pursuit of truth. During that time he has been diligent to study and teach Scripture by accurately translating it from the original Greek. Now we have his years of research available in one volume to benefit both the scholar and the layperson. There are numerous so-called translations on the market, but Dr. Lavender’s scholarship of integrity, rather than doctrinal bias, excels them all. The LNT brings clarity to many otherwise obscure passages. As you read it, revelation will flow to free your mind and spirit from the bondage imposed by false teaching.”

“Lavender’s New Testament (LNT) is a major triumph for anyone who appreciates the truth of the Word of God. It is a fascinating and accurate work; illuminating to lay people and scholars alike. Dr. Malcolm Lavender, a Greek scholar of the first degree, has poured nearly twenty-five years of tireless effort into writing ten books, including seven years in this monumental work. Dr. R. L. Lavender’s work on the footnotes and concise commentary show how most of todays translations have been corrupted in areas promoting a different gospel. Though some may reject these and the translator’s insightful scholarship, this work is for anyone who desires an accurate translation and not one that conforms to denominational bias. It will not only capture the attention of those who seek biblical truth and accuracy, but also challenges others in their theological stance.

Jerome H. Smith Author and Editor of Nelson’s Cross Reference Guide to the Bible

C. Yvonne Karl, B.S., M.A., D.Min., Christian Counselor, Retired Educator, Author of Scarecrows in My Cerebellum

Henry Harbuck, Ph.D. President, Evangel Christian University of America, General Editor of The New Millennia In-Depth Bible

55


DANIELLE

Here for you. Civil Litigation Criminal Defence Landlord / Tenant

56

G L grenierlaw

Grenier Law OfďŹ ce 280 Metcalfe Street, Suite 201, Ottawa, Ontario, K2P 1R7 Tel: 613.755.4037 / Cell: 613.552.5537 / Fax: 613.702.5557 www.grenierlaw.ca

Compensation

Accusation

Eviction

Need answers?

June 2016 issue Danielle  
Read more
Read more
Similar to
Popular now
Just for you