Page 1

Business Cycles within the Dutch Floricultural Industry Student David van der Weiden Master thesis MSc in Economics and Business Accounting & Finance

Thesis supervisors Prof. E.A. de Groot Prof. P.H.B.F. Franses 16th January 2013, Rotterdam


Content • • • • • • •

Subject and contribution; Research question; Research method; Sample selection; Results; Findings in relation to literature; Conclusion.


Subject and contribution • Business cycles in economic variables o Burns (1951): cycles are widely diffused in the economy; o Den Reijer (2006): depth, duration and diffusion; o No consensus on drivers of cycles; o De Groot and Franses (2008): clustering of cycles. • Contribution to both academic and business field.


Research question Do the floricultural industry and real Dutch GDP share the same business cycle length(s)? • Comparability of variables o Export orientated; o Focused on European markets; o Binding of international trade flows; o European business cycle co-movement

• Assumptions


Research methodology • De Groot and Franses (2008). • Autoregressive model with harmonic regressors. • Cycles in data are partly stochastic and deterministic. (equation 1 and 2)

• H0 : β’s = 0. If H0 is rejected Ci is found to be significant.


Variables


Empirical results • Multiple cycles within the data; • Cycles cluster around the Fibonacci sequence (De Groot and Franses, 2011);

Based on Table 5


Findings in relation to literature Do the floricultural industry and real Dutch GDP share the same business cycle length(s)? • Share same business cycle structure; • De Groot and Franses (2006) and Van Ruth et al. (2005): Dutch business cycle lengths 5.5 years and 10.5 years; • De Groot and Franses (2011): international and historical time series cluster around Fibonacci sequence.


Equation 3

Forecasts Dutch Floricultural Industry

2,00% 1,50% 1,00% 0,50%

-1,00% -1,50%

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

-0,50%

2012

0,00%

Based on Table 6

Cumulative forecasted growth in % per year


Conclusion • Burns (1951): cycles are widely diffused in the economy. Applicable for Dutch Floricultural industry. • To date no business cycle study focused on floricultural businesses. • Cycles are cluster around the Fibonacci sequence • Extrapolation of multiple cycle approach generates forecasts up to 2020.


Business Cycles within the Dutch Floricultural Industry “For a copy of the master thesis Please email me at: daarest@hotmail.com “


Cycles in Dutch Floricultural Industry  

The Dutch floricultural industry, similar to the aggregate economy, relies on (re)exporting activities and represents the trading ‘hub’ with...

Advertisement
Read more
Read more
Similar to
Popular now
Just for you