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YEAR BOOK 2016 Property Investment Market


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Kære Læser, Den samlede investeringsvolumen var i 2016 på 64,1 mia. kr., der dermed overgik investeringsvolumen i 2015 med ca. 10 mia. kr. Specielt 4. kvartal i 2016 var præget af en enorm aktivitet, hvor der blev gennemført transaktioner for 25,6 mia. kr. Det danske marked har været genstand for stor efterspørgsel i de traditionelle segmenter: kontor, retail og bolig, men også opkøb af industriejendomme og grunde til nybyggeri var stærkt stigende. I et år præget af flere usikkerheder på investeringsmarkederne i Europa i kølvandet på Brexit, har vi på europæisk plan oplevet en tilbagegang i investeringsvolumen. Med dette i mente synes det danske investeringsmarked at stå sin distance med højt inflow af udenlandsk kapital. Den udenlandske kapital kombineret med det fortsat lave renteniveau og det fordelagtige danske realkreditsystem, har i stigende grad skærpet konkurrencen i markedet, hvilket har givet yderligere prisstigninger igennem 2016 inden for de 3 hovedsegmenter – retail, kontor og bolig. God læselyst!

Dear Reader, In 2016, the total investment volume was DKK 64.1 bn., thus exceeding the investment volume in 2015 with approx. DKK 10 bn. Especially the fourth quarter of 2016 was affected by enormous activity, where transactions of DKK 25.6 bn were carried out. The Danish market has been subject to great demand in traditional segments: office, retail and residential, but also acquisitions of industrial properties and land for development, has been booming. In a year marked by multiple uncertainties on the investment markets in Europe in the wake of Brexit, we have at a European level experienced a decline in the investment volume. With this in mind, the Danish investment market seems to stand the distance with a high inflow of foreign capital. The foreign capital combined with the continued low interest rate and the favorable Danish mortgage system, has increasingly intensified the level of competition in the market, which has given rise to growing prices in the 3 main investment segments – retail, office and residential. Enjoy the report!

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INVESTERINGSMARKEDET 2016 / INVESTMENT MARKET 2016

INVESTERINGSVOLUMEN 2016 Investment Volume 2016

TOTAL INVESTMENT 2016

64.1

BN DKK Retail Office Residential Land Industrial Other (incl. mixed use)

5%

12%

16%

9.7

3%

30%

BN DKK

34%

5%

5%

11%

9%

53.0 BN DKK

3% 8%

9%

21%

1.4 BN DKK

29%

SOURCE:

RED PROPERTY ADVISERS

3

37% 30%

33%


INVESTERING - SEGMENTER OG TRANSAKTIONSSTØRRELSER Investment - Segments and Transaction Sizes

Boligsegmentet var igen i 2016 det største investeringssegment, efterfulgt af kontor- og retailsegmentet som de 2. og 3. største segmenter. Mængden af udenlandsk kapital nåede i 2016 nye højder med en andel på 41% af de samlede investeringer. Fra 2012 og frem til nu, har udenlandske investorer investeret for over 70 mia. kr. i det danske ejendomsmarked. 40% af investeringsvolumen var drevet af transaktioner på 500 mio. kr. eller over, hvor vi har observeret hele 31 transaktioner, hvilket ligeledes vidner om et yderst likvidt marked.

INVESTED CAPITAL IN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE BY ORIGIN BN DKK

64.1 BN DKK

60 54.1 BN DKK

50 40

59%

35.1 BN DKK 32.9 BN DKK

Again in 2016, the residential segment was the largest investment segment followed by the office and retail segment as the 2nd and 3rd largest segments. The amount of foreign capital in 2016 reached new heights with a share of 41% of the total investments. From 2012 and until today, foreign investors have invested over DKK 70 bn in the Danish real estate market.

30

40% of the investment volume was driven by transactions of DKK 500 million or above, where we have observed 31 transactions, which also bear witness to a very liquid market.

0

20 10

21.1 BN DKK

64%

70% 69%

80% 31%

30%

36%

41%

2013

2014

2015

2016

20% 2012

Danish Investors share

Foreign investors share SOURCE:

TRANSACTION VOLUME - BREAKDOWN IN PRICE RANGE

PRICE RANGE* IN M DKK

NO. OF TRANSACTIONS

0-5

TRANSACTION VOLUME IN DIFFERENT SEGMENTS 2016

VOLUMES IN M DKK

1,404

2,631

5 - 10

258

1,502

10 - 20

196

2,054

20 - 50

177

4,651

50 - 100

102

7,148

100 - 200

57

7,758

200 - 300

23

5,640

300 - 400

13

4,436

400 - 500

6

2,596

22

14,656

9

11,000

2,267

64,073

500 - 1,000 < 1,000

TOTAL

Industrial 6%

RED PROPERTY ADVISERS

Other 5%

Retail 12%

Land 8%

64.1

Office 33%

BN DKK

Residential 36%

*IF POSSIBLE PORTFOLIOS ARE REGISTRERED AS SINGLE TRANSACTIONS SOURCE:

RED PROPERTY ADVISERS

SOURCE:

4

RED PROPERTY ADVISERS


INVESTERINGSMARKEDET 2016 / INVESTMENT MARKET 2016

DAMARK SOM INVESTERINGSMARKED Denmark as Investment Market

Danmark har med sin stabile økonomi, fastkurspolitik over for Euroen og lave renteniveau vist sig at være et attraktivt marked for udenlandsk kapital, der efterspørger høj sikkerhed og gunstig demografisk udvikling. De fundamentale makroøkonomiske parametre er stærke, og i en række mere kvalitative undersøgelser indtager Danmark og København en førerposition. Dertil kommer det stærke danske realkreditsystem, der beviste sin robusthed under krisen og giver investorer mulighed for at låne til lave marginer og med en høj grad af sikkerhed.

DENMARK

Denmark has with its stable economy, fixed exchange rate policy to the Euro, and the record low interest rate level proven to be an attractive market for foreign investors, who demand low risk and a positive demographical development. The fundamental macroeconomic parameters are strong and in a number of more qualitative studies, Denmark and Copenhagen take on leading positions. Added to this, is the strong mortgage system which showed its robustness during the financial crisis giving investors the possibility to borrow at low margins and with a high degree of security.

26.3

IN FOREIGN CAPITAL WAS INVESTED IN DENMARK

JAN 2017

CURRENCY RATES

USD

691.52

EUR

743.73

SOURCES:

BN DKK

DANISH NATIONAL BANK

NO.

EASE OF DOING BUSINESS

MOST LIVEABLE CITIES

BEST FOR TALENTS

EUROPEAN CITY OF THE YEAR

1

NEW ZEALAND

TOKYO

SWIZERLAND

COPENHAGEN

2

SINGAPORE

BERLIN

DENMARK

EINDHOVEN

3

DENMARK

VIENNA

BELGIUM

MONTPELLIER

4

HONG KONG

COPENHAGEN

SWEDEN

-

5

KOREA, REP

MUNICH

NETHERLANDS

-

6

NORWAY

MELBOURNE

FINLAND

-

7

UNITED KINGDOM

FUKUOKA

NORWAY

-

8

UNITED STATES

SYDNEY

AUSTRIA

-

9

SWEDEN

KYOTO

LUXEMBOURG

-

10

MACEDONIA

STOCKHOLM

HONG KONG

-

SOURCES:

THE WORLD BANK,, MONOCLE MAGAZINE, IMD AND THE ACADEMY OF URBANISM

5


RETAIL - INVESTERING Retail - Investment

Investeringsvolumen for retail segmentet er faldet i 2016 i forhold til 2015, der var præget af specielt to store enkelt transaktioner, Galleri K og Illum. Den samlede investeringsvolumen for retailsegmentet udgjorde i 2016 7,5 mia. kr. De mest aktive investorer i segmentet var ejendomsfonde med en andel på 67%, herefter stod private investorer for 17% og ejendomsselskaber for 10%.

INVESTOR BREAKDOWN FOR RETAIL PROPERTIES IN 2016 Others Institutional Investors 1%

Real Estate Companies

17%

10%

Trods en andel på bare 36% af retailmarkedet er strøgejendommene i København ikke blevet mindre attraktive. Denne udvikling skal ses i lyset af, at retail markedet har bredt sig bredere geografisk ud, og vi oplever nu, at investorerne investerer uden for de attraktive strøggader i hovedstaden.

7.5

The investment volume for the retail segment has decreased in 2016 compared to 2015, which was particularly influenced by two large individual transactions, Galleri K and Illum. The total investment volume for the retail segment amounted to DKK 7.5 bn in 2016. The most active investors in the segment were property funds with a share of 67%, then private investors that represented 17% and real estate companies with 10%.

BN DKK

Property Funds

Despite a share of just 36% of the retail segment, high street properties in Copenhagen have not become less attractive. This progress should be seen in the light that the retail market has spread wider geographically, and we are now experiencing investors also investing outside the attractive high streets in the Capital.

RETAIL TRANSACTIONS AND FOREIGN INVESTOR SHARE BN DKK

67% SOURCE:

1.4 BN 1.7 BN 4.5 BN 5.1 BN 2.7 BN

8.84 BN DKK

8

7.62 BN DKK

24%

7.51 BN DKK

6

36%

46%

HIGH-STREETS COPENHAGEN

5 4

2

42%

57%

64% 54%

58%

%

62

67%

2.47 BN DKK

% 36

76%

3

1

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

18%

43%

7

RED PROPERTY ADVISERS

HIGH-STREET ASSET SHARE OF TOTAL RETAIL INVESTMENTS

9.35 BN DKK

9

5%

Private Investors

58%

0 2012

2013

Danish Investor share SOURCE:

RED PROPERTY

2014

2015

2016

Foreign investor share

6

SOURCE:

RED PROPERTY ADVISERS


INVESTERINGSMARKEDET 2016 / INVESTMENT MARKET 2016

TOP 5 RETAILTRANSAKTIONER 2016 Top 5 Retail Transactions 2016

PHOTO:

The largest retail transactions were marked by foreign investors, who were behind all top 5 transactions. Again this year, the Copenhagen high street properties were in great demand, where Standard Life sold both Købmagergade 3 and Frederiksberggade 1. At the end of the year, the first fully developed retail unit in the new area of Copenhagen, Carlsberg City District, were sold to Aberdeen IM. The largest retail transaction of the year was CBRE GI’s acquisition of the newly contructed BIG Shopping in Herlev.

RED PROPERTY ADVISERS

Address: Price: Sq. m: Investor: Vendor:

CARLSBERG BYEN P/S

Address: Price: Sq. m: Investor: Vendor:

Tapperitorvet 44 382.5 M DKK 7,500 sq m Aberdeen IM Carlsberg Byen P/S

Comment: The first 7,500 sq m retail out of a total area of 21,000 sq m in the historic new area, Carlsberg City District. The asset is located at the UCC Campus with high footfall counts due to the location at the newly built s-train station, Carlsberg Station.

Herlev Hovedgade 17 1,100 M DKK 45,705 sq m CBRE Global Investment Partners & Portus Retail NREP/NPV

Comment: BIG Shopping is located in Herlev in the outskirts of Copenhagen. Newly constructed with several large international retailers such as H&M, Nike, Power etc.

3

PHOTO:

2

1

De største retail transaktioner var præget af udenlandske investorer, der stod bag samtlige top 5 transaktioner. De Københavnske strøgejendomme var igen i år efterspurgte, hvor Standard Life solgte både Købmagergade 3 og Frederiksberggade 1. I slutningen af året, blev de første færdigudviklede butikker i Københavns nye område, Carlsberg Byen, solgt til Aberdeen IM. Årets største retail transaktion var CBRE GI’s køb af det nyopførte BIG Shopping i Herlev.

PHOTO:

RED PROPERTY ADVISERS

Address: Pris: Sq. m: Investor: Vendor:

Comment: A core high-street property located just opposite of the iconic department store, Illum. The property houses tenants such as Monki and newly opened Zara Home.

4

PHOTO:

DN GROUP

Address: Price: Sq. m: Investor: Vendor:

5

PHOTO:

Across Denmark Est. 350 M DKK 24,760 sq m Standard Life Top-Toy

Comment: Sale and leaseback transaction of Top-Toys retail portfolio consisting of 10 properties across Denmark.

Købmagergade 3 400 M DKK 3,400 sq m Allan Warburg Standard Life

DN ERHVERV

Address: Price: Sq. m: Investor: Vendor:

Frederiksberggade 1 302 M DKK 3,185 sq m AXA IM Standard Life

Comment: Located at the corner of Strøget and Nytorv. The building is acquired by the AXA IM on behalf of an institutional German client. The development of the assets has already taken place, with the opening of a flagship store for JD Sport.


KONTOR - INVESTERING Office - Investment

Kontorsegmentet nåede nye højder i 2016 med en samlet transaktionsvolumen på 19,3 mia. kr. sammenlignet med 13,5 mia. kr. i 2015. Efterspørgslen i dette segment har taget yderligere til i 2016, hvor specielt ejendomsselskaberne har været aktive med en andel af investeringsvolumen på 42%. Andelen af udenlandske investorer i segmentet nåede det højest observerede niveau i 2016, hvor næsten halvdelen af kontorinvesteringerne blev foretaget af udenlandske investorer.

INVESTOR BREAKDOWN FOR OFFICE PROPERTIES IN 2016 Others

Institutional Investors

15%

11%

Public institutions 7%

The office segment reached new heights in 2016 with a total transaction volume of DKK 19.3 bn compared to DKK 13.5 bn in 2015. The demand within this segment has increased even further in 2016, where particularly real estate companies have been active with a share of 42% of the investment volume. The share of foreign investors in this segment reached a new high in 2016, accounting for nearly half of the investments.

19.3

Property Funds 25%

BN DKK

Real Estate Companies 42%

SOURCE:

RED PROPERTY ADVISERS

OFFICE TRANSACTIONS AND FOREIGN INVESTOR SHARE

4.04

BN DKK

20

19.28 BN DKK

BN DKK WERE INVESTED IN SALE AND LEASEBACK TRANSACTIONS IN 2016 WITHIN THE OFFICE SEGMENT

14.89 BN DKK

15

56% 10.65 BN DKK

10

67% 6.60 BN DKK

5

85%

4.72 BN DKK

44%

93% 92%

0

33%

8%

7%

2012

2013

Danish Investor share SOURCE:

RED PROPERTY ADVISERS

15% 2014

2015

SALE AND LEASEBACK

2016

Foreign investor share

8


INVESTERINGSMARKEDET 2016 / INVESTMENT MARKET 2016

TOP 5 KONTORTRANSAKTIONER 2016 Top 5 Office Transactions 2016

Castellum udvidede deres kontorportefølje i København markant med opkøbet af Norrporten på 3,55 mia. kr., hvilket var årets største transaktion. Den helt store trend i 2016 var sale and leaseback transaktioner, hvor Danske Bank fulgte op på 2015 strategien og solgte deres hovedkontor på Holmens Kanal til Standard Life. Ligeledes frasolgte Nykredit en række af deres Københavnske ejendomme i en sale and leaseback transaktion, herunder deres hovedsæde til det danske ejendomsselskab DADES. Castellum expanded its office portfolio in Copenhagen significantly with the acquisition of Norrporten, which was the largest transaction of the year at DKK 3.55 bn. In 2016 the major trend was sale and leaseback transactions, where Danske Bank followed their 2015 strategy and sold their headquarter at Holmens Kanal to Standard Life. Similarly, Nykredit divested off a number of their Copenhagen properties in sale and leaseback constructions, including their headquarter, which was sold to the Danish real estate company DADES.

PHOTO:

NORRPORTEN

Address: Price: Sq. m: Investor: Vendor:

PHOTO:

RED PROPERTY ADVISERS

PHOTO:

Portfolio in Copenhagen 3,550 M DKK 107,800 sq m Castellum Norrporten

Comment: Castellum acquires a portfolio in Copenhagen previously owned by Norrporten. With the acquisition of the Danish portfolio and the remaining properties in Sweden, Castellum now represents the largest property company in the Nordics.

3

Address: Holmens Kanal 2 Price: 1,400 M DKK Sq. m: 49,065 sq m Investor: Standard Life Vendor: Danske Bank Comment: Holmens Kanal 2 has been the headquarter of Danske Bank since 1875 and was acquired by Standard Life in a sale and leaseback agreement. The properties were acquired with a relative short lease agreement with the purpose of developing the properties.

2

1

RED PROPERTY ADVISERS

Address: Price: Sq. m: Investor: Vendor:

Comment: Nykredit’s headquarter and other offices located in Copenhagen were acquired by DADES in a sale and leaseback transaction. The location of the headquarter is considered an absolute prime office location.

4

PHOTO:

WIHLBORGS A/S

Address: Copenhagen Price: 690 M DKK Sq. m: 85,191 sq m Investor: Wihlborgs A/S Vendor: Unipension Comment: Office portfolio located in Copenhagen and surrounding areas acquired by Wihlborgs from the Danish institutional investor, Unipension.

Kalvebod Brygge 1-3 and Under Krystallen 1 1,500 M DKK 27,171 sq m DADES Nykredit

5

PHOTO:

Address: Price: Sq. m: Investor: Vendor:

ESTATE MEDIA

Kalvebod Brygge 47 615 M DKK 14,138 sq M&G Real Estate PFA Ejendomme

Comment: M&G Real Estate acquired the property at Kalvebod Brygge from PFA Ejendomme. The property was originally built for Forstædernes Bank in 2005, and is now acting as offices for Nykredit.


BOLIG - INVESTERING Residential - Investment

Boligsegmentet var endnu engang det dominerende segment med hele 24.8 mia. kr. af den samlede volumen i 2016. Ejendomsselskaber stod bag 34% af investeringerne, efterfulgt af institutionelle investorer og ejendomsfonde, hver med en fordeling på 26% i dette segment.

INVESTOR BREAKDOWN FOR RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES IN 2016 Others 6% Institutional Investors

Specielt hovedstadsområdet tiltrak investorer og udgjorde i 2016 hele 76% af alle boliginvesteringerne. Den støt stigende befolkningstilvækst i hovedstadsområdet har bevirket en øget byggeaktivitet, og i 2016 trådte slut-investorerne tidligere ind i investeringer end tilfældet har været de forgående år for at sikre sig de rette investeringer.

26% Real Estate Companies 34%

24.8 BN DKK

Once again, the residential segment was the dominant segment with DKK 24.8 bn of the total volume in 2016. Real estate companies were behind 34% of the investments, followed by institutional investors and property funds, each with an allocation of 26% in this segment. Property Funds

Especially the Copenhagen area attracted investors, and accounted for 76% of all residential investments in 2016. The steadily increasing population growth in the Capital has caused an increased construction activity, and in 2016, the end-investors entered investments earlier than previous years to ensure the right investments.

RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS AND FOREIGN INVESTOR SHARE BN DKK

26%

Private Investors 8%

SOURCE:

RED PROPERTY ADVISERS

GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION FOR RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES 2016

24.79 BN DKK

25 20.46 BN DKK

20 59%

15

10

3,467

56% 9.86 BN DKK

M DKK

10.81 BN DKK

8.67 BN DKK

20,415

47%

5

0

64%

78%

36%

22%

281

574

M DKK

M DKK

M DKK

2012

2013

Danish Investor share SOURCE:

53%

44%

41%

RED PROPERTY ADVISERS

2014

2015

2016

Foreign investor share

10

SOURCE:

RED PROPERTY ADVISERS


INVESTERINGSMARKEDET 2016 / INVESTMENT MARKET 2016

TOP 5 BOLIGTRANSAKTIONER 2016 Top 5 Residential Transactions 2016

Bolig transaktioner var stærkt domineret af det Københavnske marked med 4 ud af de 5 største handler i 2016. Den Nordiske investor Heimstaden har været særdeles aktiv i 2016 med købet af en bolig portefølje i Sydhavnen til 1,4 mia. kr. samt 303 lejligheder fordelt over hele København til 980 mio. kr. På en femte plads er NIAMs køb af 46.500 m² boliger i Aalborg til 750 mio. kr. af Sveafastigheter og North Property Asset Management. Residential transactions were heavily dominated by the Copenhagen market with 4 out of 5 of the largest transactions in 2016. The Nordic investor Heimstaden has been especially active in 2016 with the acquisition of an residential portfolio in Sydhavnen at DKK 1.4 bn and 303 apartments spread over Copenhagen at DKK 980 million. On fifth place is NIAM’s purchase of 46,500 sq m residential properties in Aalborg at DKK 750 million by Sveafastigheter and North Property Asset Management.

PHOTO:

RED PROPERTY ADVISERS

Address: Price: Sq. m: Investor: Vendor:

CARLSBERGFONDET.DK

Address: Price: Sq. m: Investor: Vendor:

Portfolio in Copenhagen 1,100 M DKK 70,000 sq m PFA Ejendomme (49 %), JØP (34 %) DIP (17 %) Carlsbergfondet

Comment: Carlsberg Foundation Residential Portfolio. Portfolio consisting of more than 700 apartments acquired by three Danish pension funds.

PHOTO:

BY & HAVN

Comment: Portfolio of residential properties with 500 apartments located in Copenhagen, Frederiksberg and Gentofte. All properties are within the old building mass with a potential uplift.

Address: Portfolio in CPH South Harbour Price: 1,400 M DKK Sq. m: 44,400 sq m Investor: Heimstaden Vendor: NIAM Comment: Portfolio consisting of 436 apartments across the South Harbour in Copenhagen. Exited by NIAM after 2-3 years of ownership.

4

5

3

PHOTO:

2

1

PHOTO:

Portfolio in Copenhagen 1,445 M DKK 68,000 sq m PFA Ejendomme Resolution Property

ORESUNDSTAARNET.DK

Address: Price: Sq. m: Investor: Vendor:

Portfolio in Copenhagen 980 M DKK 29,000 sq m Heimstaden Danica Ejendomme

Comment: Residential portfolio of 303 apartments in three properties across Copenhagen. Two properties are located on Amager Strandvej and one is located in Valby.

PHOTO:

DAVINCIPARKEN.DK

Address: Price: Sq. m: Investor: Vendor:

Portfolio in Aalborg 750 M DKK 46,500 sq m NIAM Sveafastigheter & North Property AM

Comment: All located in Aalborg, NIAM has aquired ”Hvidts Gård” 4,000 sq m and 42 appartments located at the harbour front and ”DaVinci Parken” with 416 appartmens and a total area of 42,500 sq m.


THE PROFESSIONAL AND EXPERIENCED CONSULTANCY IN THE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET

RED Property Advisers P/S Amaliegade 3, 5th Floor 1256 København K 33 13 13 99 red@red.dk red.dk

Red Year Book 2016  
Red Year Book 2016