Page 1

MARKET REPORT ISSUE II 2018

On behalf of Freja Ejendomme, Cushman & Wakefield | RED facilitated the sale of five city properties that formerly were occupied by the University of Copenhagen.


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

COOLING OFF, BUT STILL SOLID! The investment market has experienced

INVESTMENT MARKET has increased investors interest in the

high activity in the recent 12 months pe-

segment. Our analysis, shows that the

riod with an impressive transaction vol-

pipeline of new student housing show-

ume of DKK 84.6 bn compared to DKK

cases a significantly higher activity than

75.4 bn for the same period a year ago.

ever seen before. However, we estimate

However, in first half year of 2018, we

that the planned new supply is still not

have witnessed a lower activity, as the

enough to satisfy the demand.

total transaction volume only reached DKK 33.3 bn compared to DKK 39.9 bn in H1 2017. Thus, we are currently having a market which is cooling off slightly from the peak of 2017. Despite the latest deceleration in the activity, 2018's investment volume is still expected to be one of the highest in history. The Danish market for residential properties continues to be the most traded segment with an impressive 39% of the total investment volume in the last 12 months period. Our focus article in this report highlights

We have also included an 'Office Occupier Special' as we observe that this market

We also highlight how we envision a future office space should be focused on, summarized into ten key trends. Lastly, we recommend our readers to

2 / 35

1,280 €

+155 €

Vacancy (Copenhagen City)

6.80%

5.80%

-100 bp

RETAIL

-25 bp

2017 H1

2018 H1

CHANGE

Prime yield (Copenhagen High Streets)

3.00%

3.00%

0 bp

Secondary yield (Copenhagen Side Streets)

4.00%

4.00%

0 bp

Investment volume in million

476 €

627 €

+151 €

INDUSTRIAL 2017 H1 2018 H1 CHANGE Prime yield (Copenhagen Area)

6.00%

5.75%

Prime yield (Triangle Area)

6.25%

6.00%

-25 bp

Investment volume in million

914 €

320 €

-594 €

-25 bp

TRANSACTION VOLUME (BN DKK) 2017 Q3 - 2018 Q2 DKK 85 BN ~ EUR 11.4 BN 40

ence our dynamic analysis tool. The tool

30

is continuously updated to show you the newest developments. Enjoy the report!

37

25 19

20

18

15 10

Managing Partner

ISSUE II 2018

1,125 €

visit our website at cw-red.dk to experi-

feature

yields

3.75%

Investment volume in million

35

Nicholas Thurø

higher

2018 H1 CHANGE

4.00%

importance of finding the right tenant.

and demand in student housing. This with

2017 H1

Prime yield (Copenhagen City)

seems to be changing, which stress the

the massive mismatch between supply together

OFFICE

7 4

5 0

Residential

Retail

Industrial

Other


CONTENT ISSUE II FOCUS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . MACROECONOMICS

....................................................

5 10

INVESTMENT MARKET OFFICE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

14

RESIDENTIAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

15

RETAIL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

16

INDUSTRIAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

17

TRANSACTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

OCCUPIER MARKET

TRENDSPOTTING - WORKPLACES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

OFFICE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

RETAIL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

27

RETAIL - FOOTFALL ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

28

APPENDIX - DANISH TRANSLATION

DANSK VERSION AF FOKUS ARTIKEL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

32

ISSUE II 2018

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BOLVÆRKET ON TEGLHOLMEN Aberdeen Standard Investments has acquired 10,500 sqm of residential and commercial units in Copenhagen from the Danish pension fund PenSam. Cushman & Wakefield | RED facilitated the sale.

ISSUE II 2018

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ISSUE II FOCUS

ISSUE II 2018

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DANISH VERSION ON PAGE 31

ISSUE II FOCUS STUDENT HOUSING - AN ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OBJECT? Every year prior to the commencement of studies, it is discussed how students are going to find a home in the larger student cities. Looking solely at Copenhagen, numbers from 2017 show that the search for student accommodation is rather difficult as the coverage ratio only equals 15 percent of all students, whereas the coverage ratio in Denmark in general

GREAT SHORTAGE OF STUDENT HOUSING Every year, the number of students increase. In Denmark, a total number of 272,033 national and international students are currently enrolled in higher education. Since 2010, the number of Danish students has increased by 23 percent and international students by 41 percent.

student housing. Despite the fact that not all students prefer to live in student housing, the coverage ratio is significantly low compared to the total number of students. The issue is not only present in Denmark, as it is also observed in the rest of Europe. For instance, in Germany and France, the coverage ratio is merely 10 and 13 percent. Whereas it is even worse in countries

equals 23 percent. Even though a large

The two largest university cities are Copen-

like

pipeline of student housing is on its way, it

hagen and Aarhus with 91,009 and 48,644

the coverage ratio is only 3-6 percent.

will most likely not meet the already great

students, which naturally results in a great

demand. A combination of high demand from students, the opportunity for a higher yield and the uncorrelation to wider macro-economic movements, makes student housing an interesting investment object.

KEY POINTS ††

Mismatch between supply and demand

††

Higher yield compared to traditional

Italy,

Portugal,

and

demand for student housing. However, the

GREATEAST

issue is currently that the supply of student

HOUSING IN COPENHAGEN

housing is significantly below the demand. In Copenhagen, only 15 percent of the

SHORTAGE

Spain

OF

91,009 students are covered by the supply

been able to keep pace with the rising

of student housing. The relation between

number of students. According to the

students and student housing is a lot better

Municipality of Copenhagen, 2,377 new

in Aarhus, where approx. 25-30 percent of

student housing units were constructed in

the students, have the possibility to live in

the period between 2010–2016. However,

Uncorrelated to wider economic movements

STUDENTS & STUDENT HOUSING

††

Less strict construction requirements

††

Natural upper rental limit

100%

90%

80%

YOUTH HOUSING 70%

pier must be an active student who is either entitled to Students’ Grants or enrolled in a trainee program. In this relation, it should be noted that government grants are no longer given to private investors. DORMITORY

COVERAGE RATIO

Youth housing is subject to the “Act on Supported Private Youth Housing” which means that the occu-

Dormitories have the same requirements to occupiers as youth housing, but dormitories must also follow several allotment rules. They do not follow a first come, first served basis. They must instead take the

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

students’ educational, economical, and social situa10%

tion into consideration. STUDENT HOUSING

25% 15%

18%

19%

Roskilde Roskilde

Odense Odense

30%

12%

0%

In the article, we refer to student housing as both youth housing and dormitories.

Copenhagen(inkl. Lyngby-Taarbæk Lyngby-Taarbaek København Frederiksberg) (incl. Frederiksberg)

Student Housing Studieboliger

Aarhus Aarhus

Aalborg Aalborg

Students Studerende

Source: Danish Transport, Construction and Housing Authority

ISSUE II 2018

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FOCUS

STUDENT

In Copenhagen, student housing has not

residential investments ††

where

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER  MARKET

APPENDIX


during the same period, the number of

ever, it will still not be able to meet

conditions. In fact, data from Cushman &

students increased by roughly 17,000

the demand. Kjeld Pedersen, Partner

Wakefield shows that several countries

students, which only corresponds to a

in RED, believes:

“Investors should

experienced an increase in the number

coverage ratio of 14 %. Thus, the already

already now take into consideration

of students in periods of economic

excessive gap between the number of

how and where the students wish to

recession. Moreover, the construction re-

student housing and students has only

live in the future. From a long-term

quirements of student housing are more

become larger.

investment perspective, it is important

lenient regarding open space percent-

to focus on creating high quality student

age and parking, which tends to make

PIPELINE – NEW PROPERTIES ARE ON

housing with a good location and at

regular residential projects more costly.

ITS WAY, BUT IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO

a rent level the students can afford.”

However, the occupier demand is limited

FACILITATE THE DEMAND

to one type of tenant, namely students.

Over the years, student housing has received a lot of attention, which can be

STUDENT HOUSING – SEEN FROM

As a result, there is a natural upper limit

INVESTORS’ POINT OF VIEW

to the rental level for student housing,

seen by the pipeline in Copenhagen. In

Investors perceive the student housing

the years 2018-2022, it is expected that 24

segment as an attractive investment

new development projects will be built,

asset due to the current positive demo-

which corresponds to approx. 6,000 new

graphic development and the general

student housing units in Copenhagen.

lack of supply of student housing. In

Although, the number of students has

addition, student housing is non-cycli-

reached a fairly stable level and the

cal, since people’s decision to study is

student housing pipeline is greater than

independent of the prevailing economic

due to a student’s limited income.

100.000

100%

90.000

90%

80.000

80%

70.000

70%

60.000

60%

50.000

50%

40.000

40%

30.000

30%

20.000

20%

10.000

10%

0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

COVERAGE RAT

STUDENTS

STUDENTS & STUDENT HOUSING IN COPENHAGEN

0%

År Students Studerende

Student Housing Studieboliger

Source: Statistics Denmark, Copenhagen Municipality, Danish Transport, Construction and Housing Authority

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER  MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2018

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ISSUE II FOCUS In the example below, we presume that a

The risk factors can be summarized as

student’s potential income consists of a

follows:

Students’ Grant, student loan, salary from a student job as well as housing subsidy.

††

Based on these possible income sources, we have constructed three different income types for a student. Moreover,

††

We still believe there is good reason

The number of potential occupiers

to be optimistic in relation to the in-

is limited to students, which means

vestment market for student housing.

future rent level increases are limited

Despite a future increase in the supply

Higher churn rate. More active man-

the rental level for an average student

agement is required when investing

housing unit in Copenhagen is estimated

in student housing compared to e.g.

to be approx. DKK 5,750 per month. Our

a regular residential property due

calculation example shows that the rent

to the higher churn rate as well as

burden is between 41-61 percent of the

wear and tear of the property, which

disposable income. A student within in-

requires more administration

come type I uses all four possible income

††

OUTLOOK

of student housing, it is still too limited to meet the high demand. As mentioned earlier, there is certain political risk factors associated with student housing investments. Even so, a recent government proposal suggests raising the salary a student is allowed to earn in addition to the Students’ Grant with an amount of

Political risks since e.g. that the

sources, which results in a rent burden of

DKK 12,000 a year. This gives students

government regulates the amount

41 percent. In comparison, the rent bur-

the opportunity to increase their salary

of the Students’ Grant, which poten-

den in 2017 for an owner-occupied flat

without losing the right to the Students’

tially could be reduced

Grant, which will – all things being equal

was 37 percent in Copenhagen (Nykred-

– decrease the rent burden.

it’s latest analysis). Hence, this indicates that future rental levels for student housing cannot increase significantly.

INCOME SCENARIOS & RENT BURDEN

HIGHER YIELD The large shortage of student housing

80 %

combined with the low vacancy risk seems to have increased the investor

70 %

interest within the student housing segment. This has resulted in an increased

60 %

number of investments in development properties, especially in

Copenhagen.

The higher yield achieved on student housing in Copenhagen compared to traditional residential investments is one of the main investment drivers. Investments

RENT BURDEN

projects and reconstruction of existing

50 %

40 %

30 %

61% 52%

in student housing typically yields 25-50 basis points higher than the yield on a

41%

20 %

traditional residential property – all other things being equal. The excess return for

10 %

student housing can be found in these extra risk factors associated with student

0%

housing properties: INCOME TYPE I STUDENTS' GRANT, HOUSING SUBSIDY, INCOME, STUDENT LOAN INCOME TYPE II STUDENTS' GRANT, HOUSING SUBSIDY, INCOME INCOME TYPE III STUDENTS' GRANT, HOUSING SUBSIDY, STUDENT LOAN

Sources: djoef.dk, borger.dk, SU.dk & Cushman Wakefield I RED

ISSUE II 2018

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FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER  MARKET

APPENDIX


INCOME TYPE I AFTER TAX

Students' grant 5.300 Housing subsidy 943 Income 4.709 Student loan 3 .1 1 6 Total Income 14.068 Rent - 5.750 Rent Burden 41%

ASSUMPTIONS STUDENTS' GRANT Students' Grant rate 2018 HOUSING SUBSIDY Housing subsidy is calculated by using borger. dk’s “calculate your rent subsidy” platform. Inputs to the calculator are the following: 30 sq.m., 2 rooms, and 5,750 rent pr. sq.m. INCOME According to the trade union Djøf, a student on average works 15 hours a week and receives an hourly wage of DKK 137. This provides a net pay of DKK 4,709. STUDENT LOAN Student loan rate 2018

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER  MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2018

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MACROECONOMICS

ISSUE II 2018

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MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW DENMARK CONTINUES MODEST AND STEADY GROWTH The Danish economy continues a modest and steady growth across the board with rising employment, low inflation, low interest rates, and healthy GDP development. Moreover, Denmark is doing

real estate, especially in the largest cities

economic development. As a consequense, the unemployment rate has declined to 4.40% of the workforce between the age of 16 and 67.

Aarhus and Copenhagen. The price development is also a reflection of a general urbanization trend in Denmark. However, in recent months, we have seen

well compared to the rest of Europe and

The strong employment, rising wages

a stall in apartment sales in the larger

is perceived by many foreign investors

and low-interest rates are also reflected

cities and growth in suburb villas.

as a safe haven for commercial real

in the continued rising prices on private

estate investments due to the political and financial stability and the lucrative mortgage opportunities which makes leveraged returns on real estate investment amongst the highest in Europe.

REAL GDP DEVELOPMENT (QUARTER-ON-QUARTER) SEASONLY ADJUSTED

The inflation rate in Denmark is currently at approx. 1.10%, which is a full per-

2.40%

2.50%

centage point lower than the European average, with only Greece and Ireland

2.00%

coming in at lower rates than Denmark. Inflation rates are rising across Europe

1.50%

caused by the fluctuating oil prices, which also drove the Danish inflation to 1.10% in July from 0.7% in May. Interest rates in Denmark remain at his-

0.90%

1.00% 0.60%

0.50%

0.40%

torically low levels. This ongoing trend

2017 Q2 2016 Q4

has surprised many, however, doubt amongst private real estate buyers is reflected in the choice of loan types, as we in the past few months have observed an

clear indication from new homeowners, that they do not believe in the continued

2017 Q3

2017 Q1

2017 Q4

2018 Q1

2018 Q2

-0.50% -0.80%

-1.00%

increase in fixed-rate loans, compared to the cheaper variable rate loans. This is a

0.30%

-1.10%

-1.50% Source: Statistics Denmark, Association of Danish Mortgage Banks and The Danish National Bank

low-interest rates and are therefore trying to mitigate interest rate risk. Employment in Denmark continues to increase and has, according to the latest figures, reached the highest level in Danish history with approx. 2,747,700 people in employment. The employment rate in Denmark has been steadily increasing from late 2012, and in the past 12 months increased by 50,700 people which is a strong indication of the positive Danish

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

KEY VARIABLE

A YEAR AGO

MOST RECENT

GDP Growth Rate y/y

3.81%

1.73%

Inflation Rate y/y

1.70%

1.10%

Unemployment Rate - Denmark

4.60%

4.40%

Unemployment Rate - Copenhagen Region

4.50%

4.40%

10 year Government Bond Short Term Mortgage Rate - 1 and 2 year bonds

0.36%

0.33%

-0.65%

-0.50%

2.34%

2.08%

Long Term Mortgage Rate - 30 year bonds

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER  MARKET

APPENDIX

TREND

ISSUE II 2018

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HERNINGCENTRET Behind the newly formed joint venture 'Danske Shoppingcentre', stands ATP Ejendomme and Danica Ejendomme, which with the acquisition of HerningCenteret will now own a total of 17 shopping centers. Cushman & Wakefield | RED facilitated the sale.

ISSUE II 2018

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FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


INVESTMENT MARKET

ISSUE II 2018

13 / 35


INVESTMENT MARKET - OFFICE HIGH INVESTMENT VOLUME IN H1 2018

Investment activity in the office segment

INVESTOR BREAKDOWN – Q3 2017 - Q2 2018

reached approx. 9.6 bn in H1 2018, which is the highest H1 volume, we have ever registered. The office segment contrib-

Others

uted with over one-third of the total

8%

transaction volume in H1 2018, which is also significant.

Private Investors

Real Estate Companies

11%

In the last 12 months, the volume was

44%

mainly underpinned by real estate companies, which dominated with 44% of the

19.2

total transaction volume. Furthermore, Danish investors were the most active as they were behind 59% of the activity. The

transaction

activity

in

H1

was

Property funds

BN DKK

15%

propped by DADES acquisition of Coop Invests’ portfolio in Viby, whereas an estimated DKK 1.3 bn referred to the office segment. Furthermore, BankInvest acquired 10% of PFA Ejendomme’s com-

Institutional Investors

mercial portfolio.

22%

Over the last 12 months, we have observed an increase in the popularity

DANISH INVESTORS - 59 %

FOREIGN INVESTORS - 41 %

of transactions with office properties focused on shared workspaces and serviced offices, and as a result, we

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

have seen an expansion of this market, although it is hard to assess the actual demand on this market, due to non-disclosed information.

Source: Cushman & Wakefield | RED

Prime office yield levels appear to have stabilized around 3,75% for prime assets in Copenhagen. We expect this level to endure in the short term.

ISSUE II 2018

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FOCUS

PRIME YIELDS SUBAREA

Q2 2016

Q2 2017

Q2 2018

Copenhagen City (CBD)

4.25%

4.00%

3.75%

Copenhagen E & W

5.50%

5.00%

4.50%

Frederiksberg

5.50%

5.00%

4.50%

Harbour Areas

4.25%

4.00%

3.75%

South Harbour

6.00%

5.50%

5.50%

Ørestad

5.50%

5.50%

5.50%

Copenhagen N & NW

6.50%

6.00%

5.75%

South and West of Copenhagen

7.25%

7.00%

6.75%

North of Copenhagen

5.25%

5.00%

5.00%

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


INVESTMENT MARKET - RESIDENTIAL INVESTORS SEE OPPORTUNITY OUTSIDE OF COPENHAGEN

The residential segment, which histori-

INVESTOR BREAKDOWN – Q3 2017 - Q2 2018

cally has been the most in-demand real estate segment in Denmark, is once

Institutional

again the most traded with a transaction

Investors

volume of DKK 37.0 bn in the last 12

Others 3%

3%

months. It is an immense increase of 45% Property funds

from the 12 month period a year ago, and is still underpinned by the high activity in H2 2017. In contrast to prior years, the

37%

Private Investors 21%

share of Danish and foreign investors’ contribution is more evenly dispersed.

37.0

The transaction volume in H1 2018 reached DKK 13.1 bn and was supported by property funds who contributed

BN DKK

with 37% of the volume, followed by real estate companies with 36% of the volume. Copenhagen has always been the preferred area for residential investments, but for the first time, investments

Real Estate Companies 36%

outside of Copenhagen accounted for more than half of the total transaction volume. Investments outside of Copenhagen accounted for 54% in 2018, while

DANISH INVESTORS - 42 %

FOREIGN INVESTORS - 58 %

the share was only 40% and 19% in 2017 and 2016, respectively. 0%

The most active investors in H1 2018

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

were Heimstaden, Blackstone and Niam, who together accounted for 51% of the total transaction volume of DKK 13.1 bn.

Source: Cushman & Wakefield | RED

The investment volume was especially propped by Heimstadens purchase of FB Gruppen’s portfolio of 489 residential

PRIME MARKET RENT DKK/SQM

PRIME YIELDS

units located in Grønttorvet and Teglholmen for DKK 1.2 bn.

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

SUBAREA

Q4 2017

SUBAREA

Q4 2017

Copenhagen City

2,000 - 2,200

Copenhagen Area - rent control

1.50 - 3.00%

Copenhagen E, W & N

1,700 - 1,900

Copenhagen Suburb - rent control

3.00 - 4.00%

Frederiksberg

2,000 - 2,200

Copenhagen Area - market rent

3.40%

North Harbour

2,000 - 2,200

Copenhagen Suburb - market rent

4.50%

South Harbour

1,600 - 1,800

Copenhagen S

1,500 - 1,700

North of Copenhagen

1,700 - 1,900

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2018

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INVESTMENT MARKET - RETAIL INCREASING INTEREST FROM DANSIH INVESTORS

The retail segment has experienced an

INVESTOR BREAKDOWN – Q3 2017 - Q2 2018

increased interest from Danish investors, as the transaction volume has increased

Others

from a year ago. As seen on the pie chart

Private Investors

to the right, the transaction volume from

7%

2%

Q3 2017 to Q2 2018 was DKK 17.9 bn, thus more than twice the transaction volume

Real Estate Companies

recorded in the same period the year be-

10%

fore. Danish investors contributed with 61% of the transaction volume, which is a big increase from only contributing

17.9

with 29%, the year before. However, the transaction volume in the most recent 12 months period was still significantly

BN DKK

affected by the record-breaking deal by the Danish institutional investor: ATP Real Estate’ purchase of a 50% stake in

Property Funds

Danica’s Shopping Center portfolio of

34%

Institutional Investors

DKK 6.9 bn. In

H1

47%

2018,

the

invesment

activity

reached DKK 4.7 bn. with Danish investors accounting for 51% of the total volume compared to only 22% in the

DANISH INVESTORS - 61 %

FOREIGN INVESTORS - 39 %

same period in 2017. High-street assets were in high demand 0%

in H1 2018, as a total of four high-street

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

assets changed owners. Hines acquired two assets from Freja Ejendomme on Købmagergade 44-46 and Købmagergade 50 for approx. 900 M, while the

Source: Cushman & Wakefield | RED

German property fund, Aachener Grundvermögen

acquired

Købmagergade

45/47 for 565 M. Lastly, Italian Generali made their first investment in Copenhagen when they acquired Købmagergade 39. The prime yield level in Copenhagen has been stable at around 3.00% since Q3 2016 and is expected to remain stable in the short term. This yield level mainly

PRIME YIELDS STREET/SUBMARKET

Q2 2016

Q2 2017

Q2 2018

Strøget (incl. Vimmelskaftet)

3.50%

3.00%

3.00%

Strøget Area

4.75%

4.00%

4.00%

Østerbrogade

5.50%

5.25%

5.25%

Nørrebrogade

5.75%

5.50%

5.50%

Købmagergade

3.50%

3.00%

3.00%

Lyngby

5.50%

4.75%

4.75%

4.50%

4.00%

4.00%

reflects high-street assets. SHOPPING CENTRES Copenhagen

ISSUE II 2018

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FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


INVESTMENT MARKET - INDUSTRIAL PRIVATE INVESTORS INCREASES THEIR ACTIVITY

During the first half year of 2018, we have

INVESTOR BREAKDOWN – Q3 2017 - Q2 2018

seen a steady investment activity in the industrial and logistic sector. The total

Others

transaction volume reached DKK 2.4 bn

9%

in H1 2018, which compared to recent years indicates a steady development.

Property Funds

Institutional Investors

37%

11%

Throughout the recent year, Danish investors accounted for approx. 54% of the total transaction volume in this segment with property funds being the

3.9

most active investors. This is a significant increase in Danish investors share of the market compared to last year, where

BN DKK

75% of the total transaction volume was carried out by foreign investors. Private investors have risen from approx. 10% contributing in transaction volume

Real Estate Companies

in 2017 to approx. 23% in 2018. The vol-

20%

ume of trades done by private investors' averages at the same size as last year.

Private Investors

However, the number of transactions is

23%

noticeably increased. The

transaction

activity

in

H1

DANISH INVESTORS - 54 %

was

FOREIGN INVESTORS - 46 %

propped up by Swedish Snellman Properties AB’s acquisition of Project Kappa

0%

that includes various properties spread

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

across Jutland and Zealand. Furthermore, American HIG Capital acquired two industrial properties.

Source: Cushman & Wakefield | RED

Prime yields for modern logistics properties with long leases are facing a light downward pressure. Prime yields in the Copenhagen area are now at a level of 5.75% while the Triangle area in Jutland levels at approx. 6.00%.

PRIME MARKET RENT

DKK/SQM

SUBAREA

Q2 2018

SUBAREA

Q2 2018

Copenhagen Area

600

Copenhagen Area

5.75%

Triangle Area

475

Triangle Area

6.00%

Aarhus Area

450

Aarhus Area

6.25%

Modern logistics properties with long leases

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

PRIME YIELDS

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

Modern logistics properties with long leases

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2018

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KØBERMAGERGADE 50 SCENARIO ILLUSTRATION The former university building on Købmagergade has many development posibilities. Aarstiderne Arkitekter drew up this court yard environment in a potential hotel conversion scenario.

ISSUE II 2018

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FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


TRANSACTIONS

ISSUE II 2018

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TRANSACTIONS RESIDENTIAL STREET NAME

LOCATION

DATE SIZE (SQM)

PRICE VENDOR TYPE VENDOR NAME (M DKK)

BUYER TYPE

BUYER NAME

Pensam residential portfolio

Denmark

Q3

46,776

850

Institutional investor Pensam & TopDanmark

Property fund

Core Bolig

E. & S. Olesens fund portfolio

CPH Area

Q3

21,529

Est. 538

Other

Erik & Susanna Olesens Almenvelgørende fund

Property fund

Blackstone

Dalgas Boulevard 5-7 Frederiksberg

Q3

10,575

293

User

Andelsforeningen Thyra Danebod

Real estate company

Heimstaden

Frederiksberg Alle 32 Frederiksberg

Q3

2,351

73

Private investor

Private investor

Institutional investor

PFA Ejendomme A/S

Ib Schønbergs Allé 1

Valby

Q3

7,400

Est. 315

Private investor

Koncenton

Real estate company

DFI (Deutsche Finance International)

Gearhuset

Valby

Q3

9,298

Project Pecunia

CPH Area

Q2

21,038

Est. 280

Property fund

Europa Capital

Property fund

Patrizia

Est. 600

Institutional investor Jyske Bank

Property fund

Ringertoften 10 m.fl.

CPH NW

Q2

28,444

490

Blackstone

User

Real estate company

Heimstaden

Omøgade 3-5 m.fl.

CPH E

Q2

11,566

421

Biblioteksparken

Aarhus

Q2

11,800

Est. 325

Real estate company Domusnova

Property fund

KFI

Developer

Developer

Property fund

Patrizia

Kildevældet 3-7

Aalborg

Q2

6,042

Søren Frichs Vej 51

Aarhus Area

Q2

9,434

Est. 155

Private investor

Private investor

Private investor

Koncenton

344

Private investor

Private investor

Private investor

Kordegården

Aarhus Area

Q2

Private investor

14,500

313

Private investor

Johnny Bihl

Property fund

Niam

Herning Sky

Herning

Randers Kaserne Dannevirkevej 20

Q2

13,316

Est. 206

Private investor

Private investor

Institutional investor

PFA Pension

Randers

Q2

8,375

Est. 151

Developer

By i byen

Institutional investor

PFA Ejendomme A/S

Residential portfolio

Viborg

Q2

9,360

Est. 164

Private investor

Private investor

Real estate company

Admiral Capital

Jagtvej 113

CPH N

Q2

3,881

119

Private investor

Private investor

Property fund

Blackstone

Nørre Farimagsgade CPH City 66

Q2

3,324

100

Private investor

Private investor

Real estate company

Heimstaden

St. Peder Stræde 9

CPH City

Q2

1,499

40

Public institution

Freja Ejendomme A/S

Private investor

Private investor

Bispetorvet 1-3

CPH City

Q2

3,715

95

Public institution

Freja Ejendomme A/S

User

Niels Brock

Studiestræde 34

CPH City

Q2

3,243

65

Public institution

Freja Ejendomme A/S

Private investor

Private investor

Ringertoften A/B

OFFICE STREET NAME

LOCATION

DATE

SIZE (SQM)

VENDOR NAME

BUYER TYPE

BUYER NAME

Marmormolen

North Harbor

Q3

40,000

User

PwC

Real estate company

Jeudan

Fairway house, G4S HQ, IBM CPH Area HQ, Sundhedshus Vanløse

Q3

34,141

Property fund

Niam

Real estate company

Klövern

house, G4S HQ, IBM HQ,

Aarhus Area

Q2

80,958

1,300

Developer

Coop Invest

Real estate company

Dades

Sundhedshus Vanløse

Kolding

Q2

18,929

Est. 341

Private investor

Private investor

Property fund

Niam

Klampenborgvej 205

Lyngby

Q2

24,259

640

Other

BRFkredit

Institutional investor

PFA Ejendomme A/S

Enigheden - Lygten 37-39

CPH NW

Q2

16,663

364

Property fund

Niam

Real estate company

Obel-LFI Ejendomme

Stoltenbergsgade 11

CPH W

Q2

3,196

81

Public institution

Københavns Kommune Real estate company

M. Goldschmidt Holding

Meterbuen 27

Skovlunde

Q2

17,255

70

Other

Nordania Leasing

Real estate company

Wihlborgs A/S

Finsensvej 15

Frederiksberg

Q2

5,571

123

Property fund

Property Fund

Private investor

Private investor

Codanhus

CPH W

Q1

41,000

1,440

Property fund

Dades

Real estate company

Klövern

ISSUE II 2018

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FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

PRICE VENDOR TYPE (M DKK) 1,600 735

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


INDUSTRIAL STREET NAME

LOCATION DATE SIZE (SQM)

PRICE VENDOR TYPE VENDOR NAME (M DKK)

BUYER TYPE

BUYER NAME

Kystvejen 24

Kastrup

Q3

28,000

285

User

Københavns Lufthavne A/S Property fund

Palm Capital

Brunagervej 2

Aarhus Area

Q3

48,000

146

User

Coop Danmark

User

Hilton Foods Danmark

Danske Fragtmænd Portfolio

Denmark

Q3

184,582

1,200

Property fund

Aberdeen Standard Investments

Real estate company

W.P. Carey

Naverland 22A

Glostrup

Q2

19,808

88

Private investor

Private investor

Private investor

Sextus Next ApS

Tingvejen 4

Vojens

Q2

28,775

123

Private investor

Schou Ejendomme A/S

Real estate company

HP Schou A/S

BUYER TYPE

BUYER NAME

RETAIL STREET NAME

LOCATION DATE SIZE (SQM)

Herningcentret

Herning

Q3

30,000

Est. 1,000

Private investor

Private investor

Property fund

Danske Shoppingcentre

Brogade 7

Køge

Q3

7,300

Est. 146

Private investor

Private investor

Private investor

Private investor

Coop Portfolio - Mega Aarhus Area Syd (retail part)

Q2

36,698

900

Developer

Coop Invest

Real estate company

Dades

Købmagergade 44, 46, 50

CPH City

Q2

20,214

845

Public institution

Freja Ejendomme A/S

Property fund

Hines

Frederiksberggade 1A CPH City

Q2

1,415

69

Private investor

Private investor

Property fund

Thylander Gruppen

Søndergade 15

Q2

711

80

Private investor

Private investor

User

Arbejdernes Landsbank

Aarhus

PRICE VENDOR TYPE VENDOR NAME (M DKK)

LAND STREET NAME

PURPOSE

LOCATION DATE

Istanbulgade 1

Hotel

North Harbor

Q2

25,145

7,954

200

Skejbyvej 29

Office

Aarhus Area

Q2

52,000

3,053

Rubinolavej 2

Residential

Valby

Q2

15,552

Daugbjergvej 15-19

Mixed Use

Aarhus

Q2

Gittervej

Office

Nordhavn

Stigsborg Havnefront (51%) Residential Høiriisgardsvej 3 Bregnegårdsvej Sundkaj 39

FOCUS

SIZE (SQM)

PRICE PER SQM. OF PRICE VENDOR NAME BUILDING RIGHT (M DKK)

BUYER NAME

By og Havn (Udviklingsselskabet By & Havn I/S)

KPC

159

Professionshøjskolen VIA Universit

A. Enggaard A/S & PKA

5,138

80

FB Gruppen

Sygeplejerskernes Ejendomsaktieselskab

70,000

4,286

300

Ferguson Properties

PensionDanmark

Q2

28,000

Est. 8,000

Est. 224

By og Havn (Udviklingsselskabet By & Havn I/S)

PWC

Nørresundby

Q2

204,000

Est. 1,165

Est. 238

Aalborg Kommune

PFA Pension & A. Enggaard A/S

Residential

Aarhus Area

Q2

41,000

4,363

179

Tulip Food Company A/S

P/S PKAE Ejendom

Residential

Charlottenlund

Q2

15,000

Est. 4,500

Est. 68

DSB

Bonava

By og Havn (Udviklingsselskabet By & Havn I/S)

CapMan

Residential

North Harbor

MACROECONOMICS

Q2

7,684

INVESTMENT MARKET

8,750

67

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2018

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60%

32%

32%

21% 29%

15%

11%

THEODORA HOUSE IN CARLSBERG BYEN Theodora Hus is an upcoming property in Carlsberg Byen – a flourishing area of Copenhagen. The design of the building combines architectural tendencies from the past with those of the present. Theodora Hus offers available office space of 130 – 2,878 sqm. The offices will be ready for occupancy by Q4 2019. Contact Cushman & Wakefield | RED for more information at office@cw-red.dk

ISSUE II 2018

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FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


OCCUPIER MARKET

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TRENDSPOTTING - WORKPLACES The key strategic challenges in Nordic corporations still involve attracting and retaining talented employees while enhancing their productivity through innovation and operational excellence. These issues are being solved by welcoming the “gig-economy” which involves allowing remote and flexible working practices. Concurrently, businesses continuously look for ways to reduce occupancy costs. This has raised the issue of focusing on utilization which means securing that physical spaces are utilized efficiently and thereby minimizing costs. The general workplace is in for tremendous changes moving forward, and future offices are projected to be much more efficient to meet the expectations of millennials and upcoming generations shaping the workplaces of tomorrow. Technology is evolving at an inexplicable speed and redefining the workplace which allows employees to work anywhere. This is resulting in businesses reconsidering their real estate strategy around more flexible options and prepare for the significant changes in the office environment, such as remote work becoming more prevalent. Are you wondering what a future office will look like? Below are ten key trends that summarize how we envision the look of a future office.

1:

COGNITIVE BUILDINGS

2: WELLBEING

Combining big data from 'Internet of Things'

The wellbeing phenomenon, and eroding

and sensors with machine learning allows for

work

improved utilization and user experience.

improved understanding of its strategic

and

life

boundaries,

requires

an

importance and implications for the built environment.

3: COMMUNITY

4: CSR

Curate the experience by being part of

Millennials’ attention to CSR (Corporate

something greater. It includes quality dining,

Social Responsibility) requires corporates to

convenience

amenities

review their policies. As a tool to attract and

community spaces and onsite events with

retain talent, CSR in the built and working

access for both tenants and the public.

environment becomes a strategic imperative.

ISSUE II 2018

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service,

FOCUS

wellness

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


5: URBAN TECH ENVIRONMENTS

6: CO-WORKING

The location has a direct impact on all top

Driven by flexibility requirements, resource

C-suite challenges: access to talent, ability

utilization, knowledge sharing, and Millenni-

to innovate, strong customer relationships,

als’ preference for access economy work will

operational excellence, and sustainability.

increasingly take place in social surroundings and co-working spaces.

7: GIG WORKERS

8: VIRTUAL & AUGMENTED REALITY

Consultants, contractors, freelancers, and

Improved virtual meeting facilities can re-

temp workers create flexibility, and change

duce the need for “face-to-face” interactions

the corporate landscape and how we work.

and support work anywhere and anytime. Possibilities exist for virtual tours and projection of scale models.

9: ROBOT WORKERS

10: BLOCKCHAIN

Security, room delivery, concierge, recep-

Where FinTech and PropTech meet - block-

tionist, autonomous cleaning, and property

chain has the potential to increase the trans-

maintenance services - both humanoid and

parency, efficiency, and liquidity of rental and

non-humanoid robots are gradually able to

real estate transactions.

handle more building and service tasks.

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2018

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OCCUPIER MARKET - OFFICE INCREASING INTEREST FOR SHARED OFFICES

Throughout 2018, there has been an increasing demand from small and medium-sized companies for square meter

SIGNIFICANT LEASES STREET NAME

LOCATION

DATE

Ny Carlsberg vej 140

CPH W

Q2 2018

4,543

Banevænget 13

Birkerød

Q2 2018

1,061

Ørestads Boulevard

CPH S

Q2 2018

925

Bredebjergvej 1

Taastrup

Q1 2018

12,436

Kuehne & Nagel

Bohrsgade 35

CPH W

Q1 2018

6,690

Accenture A/S

This development in the occupier market

Olof Palmes Allé 25

Aarhus N

Q1 2018

4,179

is well-reflected in the significant leases

Tankedraget 25

Aalborg

Q1 2018

3,600

Classified

of the first half of 2018. The three cowork-

Dampfærgevej 8-12

CPH E

Q1 2018

2,400

Classified

ing office providers, Ordnung, Spaces,

Kochsgade 31 - Lejlighed nr. 31, 1.

Odense C

Q1 2018

2,327

and Coworking Plus ApS leased a total of

Vesterballevej 4

Fredericia

Q1 2018

1,821

DLG A.m.b.A.

7.835 sqm in the first two quarters of the

Sofiendalsvej 93

Aalborg SV

Q1 2018

1,588

Classified

year. 2.327 sqm in Odense C, the largest

Nygårdsvej 5

CPH E

Q1 2018

1,574

Classified

city on the island of Funen, and 5.508

Skt. Petri Passage 5, 3.

CBD

Q1 2018

1,335

Heimstaden NPM

flexibility and shorter non-termination periods. These demands combined with a continuously growing interest in multi user properties with shared facilities have increased coworking office spaces.

SIZE (SQM)

NEW TENANT Spaces Lexmark Tobaco company

Region Midtjylland

Coworking Plus ApS

sqm in Copenhagen.

Companies, seeking towards the city, in order to find a sufficient workforce,

Vacancy rate Copenhagen City

Vacancy rate Copenhagen Area

Q2 2018

Q1 2018

Q4 2017

Q3 2017

Q2 2017

Q1 2017

Q4 2016

Q3 2016

Q2 2016

Q1 2016

Q4 2015

Q3 2015

Q2 2015

rent-levels in these areas.

Q1 2015

0,00% Q1 2012

has resulted in significant increases in the

2,00%

Q4 2014

in offices in the rest of Copenhagen. This

4,00%

Q3 2014

hagen, we have seen an increased interest

Q2 2014

nificantly higher than the rest of Copen-

6,00%

Q1 2014

and Copenhagen Harbour Area being sig-

8,00%

Q4 2013

Due to the rent levels in Copenhagen City

Q3 2013

seen an overall increase over the last year.

10,00%

Q2 2013

In Greater Copenhagen, the rent level has

12,00%

Q1 2013

lies around 5.8% and 7.5% respectively.

Q4 2012

been stabilized in the last year and now

Office vacancy rates compared to unemployment in Copenhagen

Q3 2012

City and the Copenhagen Area have also

VACANCY AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

Q2 2012

The vacancy rates in both Copenhagen

Unemployment Copenhagen Area

Source: Statistics Denmark & Ejendomstorvet.dk

results in an overall increase in rent levels as well as lower supply of vacant office space in Greater Copenhagen.

ISSUE II 2018

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FOCUS

PRIME RENT DKK/SQM CITY

SUBAREA

Copenhagen

City

Q2 2017

Q2 2018

CHANGE

1,750

1,800

3.00%

Copenhagen

Østerbro / Vesterbro

1,250

1,350

8.00%

Copenhagen

Frederiksberg

1,300

1,400

8.00%

Copenhagen

Ørestaden

1,350

1,450

7.00%

Copenhagen

Norrebro / Nordvest

1,200

1,350

13.00%

Copenhagen

South & West (surrounding areas)

950

1,000

5.00%

Copenhagen

North (Surrounding areas)

1,300

1,300

0.00%

Aarhus

Aarhus

1,325

1,350

2.00%

Odensen

Odense

1,000

1,000

0.00%

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


OCCUPIER MARKET - RETAIL LARGE INTEREST FROM INTERNATIONAL BRANDS

Golden Goose Deluxe Brand and Jimmy Choo have both scored a location on

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS STREET NAME

LOCATION

DATE

Købmagergade 7

CPH City

2018/Q2

115

Købmagergade 7

CPH City

2018/Q2

200

Jimmy Choo

Pilestræde 16

CPH City

2018/Q2

479

Axel Arigatto

Vimmelskaftet 38

CPH City

2018/Q2

1,388

are locating flagship stores in secondary

Rådhuspladsen 14

CPH City

2018/Q2

307

7-Eleven

areas around Købmagergade.

Frederiksberggade 25

CPH City

2018/Q2

629

Victorious

After years of searching for the perfect

Kronprinsensgade 2

CPH City

2018/Q2

N/A

Daniel Wellington

location, the Japanese clothing brand

Kronprinsensgade 13

CPH City

2018/Q2

90

Uniqlo has finally found the ideal location

Frederiksberggade 27

CPH City

2018/Q1

230

Skechers

for their new flagship store in Denmark.

Vesterbrogade 1B

CPH V

2018/Q1

N/A

McDonalds

Niels Hemmingsensgade 24

CPH City

2018/Q1

1,315

Paustian

Store Kongensgade 84

CPH City

2018/Q1

238

7-Eleven

Købmagergade 39

CPH City

2017/Q4

758

Boozt.com

Købmagergade close to Amagertorv and have therefore become part of the highly luxurious high street pitch. Moreover, well-known brands such as Daniel Wellington, Axel Arigato, and Paustian

Uniqlo will in the future be located in Louises Hus on Vimmelskaftet 38 and expect to open in spring 2019.

SIZE (SQM)

NEW TENANT Golden Goose

Uniqlo

Birkenstock

The low leasing activity from Gammeltorv to City Hall Square continues as the vacancy in this area is rising. It is still unknown what kind of influence the opening of the new metro city line in 2019 will have on the area. However, the construction of the new metro city line has taken its toll on this part of Strøget. When looking at the general vacancy

PRIME RENT DKK/SQM - ZONE A SUBAREA

2017 Q2

2018 Q2

CHANGE

Strøget (incl. Vimmelskaftet)

23,000

24,000

4.00%

Strøget Area - side streets

10,000

11,000

10.00%

Købmagergade

22,000

24,000

9.00%

Østerbrogade

7,000

7,000

0.00%

Nørrebrogade

3,500

3,750

7.00%

rate for Copenhagen City and area, the vacancy has increased since Q3 2016. Though, the vacancy has increased the

VACANCY RATES AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

consumer confidence has gone up. In

Retail vacancy rates compared to consumer confidence in Copenhagen

general, we see differentiating interests about Strøget. Some parts of Strøget are

5,00%

experiencing rising vacancy while others

4,50%

are influenced by low vacancy and high

4,00%

interest from retailers.

3,50%

The highest increase was in the secondary parts of Strøget, Lyngby, and Aarhus. Additionally, Købmagergade has experienced a higher increase compared to Strøget. The interest in Købmagergade continues to grow as the street attracts new international tenants.

10

Source: Statistics Denmark & Ejendomsstorvet.dk 3,00%

5

2,50% 2,00%

0

1,50% 1,00%

-5

0,50% 0,00%

-10 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018

In 2018, we saw an increase in rent levels.

15

Vacancy rate Copenhagen City

Vacancy rate Copenhagen area

Consumer Confidence index

Source: Statistics Denmark & Ejendomsstorvet.dk

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2018

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FOOTFALL ANALYSIS INCREASING INTEREST FOR ØSTERGADE

The Copenhagen main street has experienced various changes in footfall in recent time, as especially Østergade have seen an increasing interest.

7.

4,700

Overall, Copenhagen high streets have experienced a decrease of approx. 8% in total footfall counts in H1

Kultorvet

2018 compared to H1 2017. The decrease in footfall counts might be in conjunction with the continuing

ager Købm

construction work across Copenhagen high street as it blocks and interferes with access and flow.

gad

Most of the Copenhagen high streets have experienced

e

a decrease in footfall in H1 2018, which is illustrated by the negative change in pedestrians on most of the streets listed on the Footfall map. However, a significant increase in pedestrians is registered at the start of Østergade, where the number has increased by 900 people per average hour. The rising footfall might be the correlation between the increasing interest from retailers wanting to be located this end of the high street. Furthermore, the new metro entry at Kgs. Nytorv will be relocated so that the main stairway will be located right between Østergade and Lille Kongensgade. It is expected that Østergade will benefit positively from this relocation as it will be the new preferred gateway to Strøget. Overall, the metro

COUNTING METHODOLOGY RED carries out the counts on Fridays at 4 pm with the purpose of registrering a development and conclude a level of footfall at different locations on Strøget and Købmagergade. The footfall is counted manually from both directions.

infrastructure in Copenhagen will be significantly improved with the opening of the new metro line. The footfall on Østergade has improved significantly over the last three years compared to Frederiksberggade and Købmagergade, who witnessed a fall of respective -14% and -19% against an increase at

Vimme

Østergade of +53%. We expect footfall counts to re-stabilize on most of

e

ad

high street after most of the construction work, in

Nyg

connection with the new metro, has been finished.

Gammeltorv 4.

4,700 e

ad

F

ISSUE II 2018

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FOCUS

sb

rik

e red

g erg

MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT  MARKET Rådhuspladsen

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


FOOTFALL COUNTS IN H1 2017 AND H1 2018 NO. STREET NAME

THE MAP The map shows the counting points and the average footfall per hour the last 12 months.

9.

4,900

3.

H1 2017

H1 2018

CHANGE

1

Amagertorv

5,380

4,402

-978

2

Østergade

3,656

4,569

913

3

Pilestræde/Kronprinsensgade

2,979

2,978

-1

4

Frederiksberggade

4,803

4,264

-539

5

Vimmelskaftet/Amagertorv

6,120

4,994

-1126

6

Købmagergade/Silkegade

4,851

4,074

-777

7

Frederiksborggade/Købmagergade

4,881

4,103

-778

8

Købmagergade/Valkendorfsgade

4,610

5,505

896

9

Rundetårn

4,996

4,626

-369

10

Købmagergade/Løvstræde

5,065

4,128

-938

3,100

10.

5,000 Kgs. Nytorv

8.

6,400

ade

2. sterg Ø

New metro

5,600 6.

5,200 Købm ager

gade

e

gad

Øster 1.

ertorv

Amag

5.

5,600

5,700

elskaftet

FOOTFALL DEVELOPMENT H1 2014 - H1 2018 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 H1 - 2014

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

H1 - 2015

H1 - 2016

H1 - 2017

H1 - 2018

Østergade (Hugo Boss)

Købmagergade (Silkegade)

Frederiksbberggade (Lagkagehuset)

Frederiksbborggade/Købmagergade

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

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KØBMAGERGADE 39 Generali Real Estate enters the Nordic property market with the acquisition of Købmagergade 39. Cushman & Wakefield l RED facilitated the sale.

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APPENDIX - DANISH TRANSLATION

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ENGLISH VERSION AT PAGE 6

UDGIVELSE II FOKUS STUDIEBOLIGER – ET ATTRAKTIVT INVESTERINGSOBJEKT? Hvert eneste år før studiestart kører diskussionen omkring, hvordan de unge, der starter på studie i større studiebyer, finder en bolig. Tal fra 2017, viser at der er størst søgning i København, hvor dækningen i form af antal af studieboliger i forhold studerende ligger på 15 pct. mod 28 pct. i Danmark som helhed. Der er en stor pipeline af studieboliger på vej, men dette vil

STOR MANGEL PÅ STUDIEBOLIGER

Det er naturligvis ikke alle, som præfererer

Hvert år stiger antallet af studerende. I Danmark er der p.t. i alt 272.033 nationale og internationale studerende på en videregående uddannelse. Siden 2010 er antallet af danske studerende steget med 23 pct., mens internationale studerende er steget med 41 pct.

en studiebolig, men uagtet er antallet af studieboliger i forhold til studerende meget lavt. Det er ikke kun i Danmark, at der er et misforhold mellem udbud og efterspørgsel for

studieboliger,

idet

problematikken

også ses i resten af Europa. For eksempel er det henholdsvis blot 10 og 13 pct. af de studerende i Tyskland og Frankrig, som har

højst sandsynligt ikke kunne imødekomme

De to største studiebyer er København og

mulighed for at få en studiebolig. Værre

den stadig store efterspørgsel. Kombina-

Aarhus med henholdsvis 91.009 og 48.644

ser det ud i lande som Italien, Portugal og

tionen af den høje efterspørgsel fra lejerne,

studerende, og naturligt er der derfor stor

Spanien hvor det kun er 3-6 pct.

muligheden for at opnå et højere afkast ift.

efterspørgsel efter studieboliger i disse to

traditionelle boliginvesteringer samt stud-

byer. Problematikken er dog, at udbuddet

ieboligers manglende korrelation med den

af studieboliger er markant lavere end

generelle økonomi, gør studieboliger til et

efterspørgslen. Kun 15 pct. af de 91.009 stu-

interessant investeringsobjekt.

derende i København har muligheden for

I København har antallet af studieboliger

at kunne bosætte sig i en studiebolig. For-

ikke tilnærmelsesvis kunne følge med forø-

holdet mellem studerende og studieboliger

gelsen af studerende. Ifølge Københavns

er markant bedre i Aarhus, hvor ca. 25-30

Kommune er der i perioden 2010-2016

pct. har mulighed for at få en studiebolig.

blevet tilført 2.377 nye studie- og kolle-

KEY POINTS ††

Høj efterspørgsel fra studielejer ift.

STØRST MANGEL PÅ STUDIEBOLIGER I KØBENHAVN

udbud. ††

Højere afkast ift. traditionelle boliginvesteringer.

††

Ikke korreleret med den generelle

STUDERENDE & STUDIEBOLIGER

økonomi. ††

††

100%

Lempeligere krav ved opførelse af studieboliger.

90%

Naturlig øvre lejegrænse.

80%

70%

Ungdomsboliger er omfattet af ”Lov om støttede private ungdomsboliger” hvilket betyder, at lejerne skal være aktivt studerende, som enten er SU-berettigede eller er under en lærlinge-/elevuddannelse. Der gives ikke længere statsstøtte til opførsel af private ungdomsboliger.

DÆKNINGSGRAD

UNGDOMSBOLIG

KOLLEGIEBOLIG:

60%

50%

40%

30%

Kollegieboliger har samme krav til lejere som ungdomsboliger, men udover dette skal kollegieboligerne også overholde en række overordnede tildelingsregler. Det er bl.a. ikke først-til-mølle-princippet, men under hensyntagen til den boligsøgendes uddan-

20%

10%

nelsesmæssige, økonomiske og sociale forhold.

25% 15%

18%

19%

Roskilde

Odense

Studieboliger

Studerende

30%

12%

0%

STUDIEBOLIG:

København (inkl. Lyngby-Taarbæk Frederiksberg)

Vi omtaler studieboliger i artiklen som en fælles

Aarhus

Aalborg

betegnelse for ungdomsboliger og kollegieboliger.

Sources: Trafik-, Bygge- og Boligstyrelsen

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FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER  MARKET

APPENDIX


gieboliger til København, men i samme

og der er flere studieboliger i pipelinen,

studieboligmarkedet ikke konjunkturføl-

periode er antallet af studerende steget

vil det ikke kunne møde efterspørgslen.

somt, idet at en persons beslutning, om

med omtrent 17.000 studerende. Det

Herudover

Pedersen,

at studere eller ej, ikke er påvirket af den

vil sige, at kun ca. 14 % af behovet er

Partner i RED: ”Investorer bør allerede

økonomiske tilstand. Det ses derimod

dækket ved det tilførte byggeri. Dermed

nu

de

ifølge data fra Cushman & Wakefield, at

er det i forvejen store mismatch mellem

studerende ønsker at bo i fremtiden.

flere lande oplever en stigning i antallet af

antallet af studieboliger og studerende

Fra et langsigtet investeringsmæssigt

optagede studerende på videregående

ikke blevet mindre, men derimod større.

synspunkt er det vigtigt at have fokus

uddannelser

på at skabe boliger til studerende af

oder. Derudover er der lempeligere krav

høj kvalitet med god beliggenhed og til

til opførsel af studieboliger i form af en

en husleje de studerende kan betale”.

lavere procentsats til friareal og en lavere

PIPELINE – NYT ER PÅ VEJ, MEN DET ER IKKE NOK TIL AT DÆKKE BEHOVET er

kommet

ekstra

fokus

indtænke

Kjeld

hvordan

og

hvor

under

lavkonjunkturperi-

parkeringsnorm, hvilket ellers har det

STUDIEBOLIGER

studieboliger de senere år, hvilket også

SET

FRA

ET

ter. Efterspørgslen fra lejersiden er dog

INVESTORPERSPEKTIV

kan ses på den kommende pipeline i

investorer

med at fordyre almindelige boligprojek-

København. I årene 2018-2022 forventes

Flere

opfatter

segmentet

det, at der vil blive opført omkring 24

studieboliger som et attraktivt inves-

udviklingsprojekter i København, hvilket

teringssegment bl.a. som følge af den

ca. svarer til 6.000 nye studiebolig-

demografiske udvikling med stor tilfly-

værelser. Selvom antallet af studerende

tning til studiebyerne og den generelle

har nået et nogenlunde stabilt niveau,

mangel på studieboliger. Derudover er

begrænset til én type lejere; studerende. Af denne grund er der en naturlig øvre grænse for lejeniveauet for studieboliger, da brugerne har begrænsede indkomstkilder.

STUDERENDE

STUDERENDE & STUDIEBOLIGER I KØBENHAVN 100.000

100%

90.000

90%

80.000

80%

70.000

70%

60.000

60%

50.000

50%

40.000

40%

30.000

30%

20.000

20%

10.000

10%

0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

DÆKNINGSGRAD

Der

mener

0%

År Studerende

Studieboliger

Source: Danmarks Statistik, Københavns Kommune, Trafik-, Bygge- og Boligstyrelsen

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER  MARKET

APPENDIX

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UDGIVELSE II FOKUS I eksemplet nedenfor antager vi, at

Risikofaktorerne kan opsummeres til

en

følgende:

studerendes

indkomst

potentielt

set kan bestå af SU, SU-lån, løn fra

Vi mener fortsat, at der er gode grunde er

et studiejob samt boligsikring. Ud fra

til optimisme på investeringsmarkedet

begrænset til studerende, hvorfor

disse indkomstkilder har vi opstillet tre

for studieboliger. På trods af et øget

der er begrænsede udsigter til lejes-

forskellige indkomsttyper for en studer-

tigninger.

udbud

ende. Lejeniveauet for en gennemsnitlig

††

OUTLOOK

potentielle

lejere

af

studieboliger

i

fremtiden,

er det vores opfattelse, at udbuddet stadig er for begrænset til at kunne

ieboliginvestering kræver i øvrigt

imødekomme efterspørgslen fra det høje

langt mere aktiv forvaltning end en

Vores regneeksempler viser, at lejeb-

antal studerende. Derudover er der, som

sædvanlig boligudlejningsejendom,

yrden udgør imellem 41 – 61 pct. af den

henset bl.a. til større slitage og en

tidligere omtalt, en vis politisk risiko til

disponible indkomst. En studerende i

større administration der er forbun-

indkomsttype I benytter sig af samtlige

det med at eje en studieboligejen-

fire indkomstkilder, hvilket resulterer i en

dom pga. den store udskiftning af

lejebyrde på 41 pct. Til sammenligning

lejere.

i niveauet DKK 5.750 om måneden.

udgør boligbyrden

for ejerlejligheder

††

Større

af

stud-

studiebolig i København er estimeret

††

Antallet

fraflytningsrate.

En

stede ved studieboliginvesteringer. Et nyligt regeringsforslag åbner dog op for at hæve de studerendes fribeløb med 12.000 kroner om året. Dette betyder, at den studerende kan tjene flere penge

Følsomhed overfor politisk risiko,

i København 36 pct. i 2017 (Nykredits

idet

seneste analyse). Det indikerer således,

består af SU, som fra regeringens

at fremtidige lejestigninger for stud-

side potentielt set kan blive nedsat.

en

studerendes

indkomst

ved siden af SU, hvilket – alt andet lige – vil gøre lejebyrden mindre.

ieboliger bør være lettere begrænset.

INDKOMSTTYPER & LEJEBYRDER

HØJERE AFKAST Den

store

mangel

studieboliger,

80 %

hvilket har reduceret tomgangsrisikoen, synes at have vækket investeringslysten i

de

københavnske

70 %

ungdomsboliger.

Det har resulteret i et stigende antal

60 %

investeringer i nye udviklingsprojekter, men også i ombygninger af eksisterende fanger investorernes interesse er, at afkastet på studieboliger i København stadig er højere i forhold til afkastet på traditionelle boliginvesteringer. Ved in-

50 %

LEJEBYRDE

ejendomme. Et væsentligt forhold som

40 %

30 %

61% 52%

vesteringer i studieboliger kan der typisk opnås et afkast, som er 25-50 basispunk-

41%

20 %

ter over afkastet på traditionelle boliginvesteringer. Dette merafkastet skal ses i forhold til, at der er ekstra risikofaktorer, der er indeholdt i afkastkravet specifikt for

studieboligejendomme.

Risikofak-

torerne kan opsummeres til følgende:

10 %

0%

INDKOMSTTYPE I SU, BOLIGSIKRING, LØNINDKOMST, SU-LÅN INDKOMSTTYPE II SU, BOLIGSIKRING, LØNDINDKOMST INDKOMSTTYPE III SU, BOLIGSIKRING, SU-LÅN

Kilde: djoef.dk, borger.dk, SU.dk & Cushman Wakefield I RED

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FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER  MARKET

APPENDIX


INDKOMSTTYPE I EFTER SKAT

SU 5.300 Boligsikring 943 Lønindkomst 4.709 SU-lån 3 . 1 1 6 Totale indkomst 14.068 Leje - 5.750 Lejebyrde 41%

ANTAGELSER SU SU-sats for 2018 BOLIGSIKRING Boligsikring er beregnet ved anvendelse af borger.dk’s ”beregn din boligstøtte” platform. Inputs til beregneren er følgende: 30 m2, 2 værelser, DKK 5.750 leje pr. måned. LØNINDKOMST Ifølge Djøf arbejder en studerende i gennemsnit 15 timer ugentligt og modtager en timeløn på DKK 137. Dette giver en nettoløn på DKK 4.709.. SU-LÅN SU-lån sats for 2018.

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER  MARKET

APPENDIX

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TRY OUR DYNAMIC ANALYSIS TOOL AT CW-RED.DK Cushman & Wakefield | RED has throughout the years worked structured and intense to increase the transparency on the Danish commercial real estate market. We have therefore introduced a dynamic research tool on our website that allows you to perform your own analysis by using our underlying market data. Enjoy!

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Market Report Issue II 2018  
Market Report Issue II 2018