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MARKET REPORT ISSUE II 2017

3,914 sq m office space has been let out at Tuborg Boulevard 12 in Hellerup to the law firm Lundgrens


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

HIGH ACTIVITY WITH INCREASING INTEREST FOR MINOR SEGMENTS High activity in the investment market is still the headline with the Q1 volume of 2017 amounting to approx. DKK 12.6 bn, which is slightly lower than Q1 last year. Prime yield levels for office and retail properties remain at a low level. This combined with a lack of prime investment opportunities within these segments and a high capital placement need from the investor side, have made way for investments in other segments. So far in 2017, the investment volume share of other segments than the traditional big segments - residential, office and retail – is at the highest level in several years. This is the focus point of the article of this Issue, where we explain how hotel transactions for instance are booming as well as what characterizes investments in this segment.

In continuation hereof, the industrial/ logistic segment is on the rise following many years of slow activity, and as such we have included an investment market section on this segment in this Issue as well. Furthermore, we strongly recommend to visit our new website and try out our new dynamic analysis tool, with which you can perform your own analysis’ of the transaction market. Enjoy the report!

INVESTMENT MARKET OFFICE Prime yield (Copenhagen City) Investment volume in million Vacancy (Copenhagen City) RETAIL

2016 Q1

2017 Q1

CHANGE

4.25% 325 € 8.30%

4.00% 248 € 7.20%

-25 bp -77 € -110 bp

2016 Q1

2017 Q1

CHANGE

Prime yield (Copenhagen High Streets) 3.50% 3.00% -50 bp Secondary yield (Copenhagen Side Streets) 4.75% 4.50% -25 bp Investment volume in million 304 € 413 € +109 € INDUSTRIAL 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 CHANGE Prime yield (Copenhagen Area) Prime yield (Triangle Area) Investment volume in million

7.00% 7.25% 305 €

6.25% 6.50% 187 €

-75 bp -75 bp -118 €

TRANSACTION VOLUME (BN DKK) Q2 2016 - Q1 2017 - DKK 63.7 BN ~ EUR 8.5 BN 24

18

ISSUE II 2017 2 / 29

3 Indu.

4 Other

Land

Retail

5 Office

Nicholas Thurø Managing Partner RED | Cushman & Wakefield

Residential

9


CONTENT ISSUE II FOCUS

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

MACROECONOMICS

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

INVESTMENT MARKET OFFICE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 RESIDENTIAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 RETAIL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 INDUSTRIAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 TRANSACTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 OCCUPIER MARKET OFFICE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 RETAIL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 RETAIL - FOOTFALL ANALYSIS

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

APPENDIX - DANISH TRANSLATION DANSK VERSION AF FOKUS ARTIKEL

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

ISSUE II 2017 3 / 29


EUROMONEY 2016 - WINNER OF 4 AWARDS

ISSUE II 2017 4 / 29

Best Advisors and Consultants Overall in Denmark

Best Advisors and Consultants for Agency & Letting in Denmark

Best Advisors and Consultants for Valuation in Denmark

Best Advisors and Consultants for Research in Denmark


ISSUE II FOCUS

ISSUE II 2017 5 / 29


DANSK VERSION PÅ SIDE 28

ISSUE II FOCUS MINOR SEGMENTS ON THE RISE Since 2014, “the big 3” - Residential, Office, and Retail – have constituted 76% of the Danish transaction volume, while yields have simultaneously reached what appears to be a temporary bottom level. This, combined with a high need for capital placement from the investor side has made investors increasingly looking towards other segments such as Hotels and Logistics.

SHARE OF TRANSACTION VOLUME 100% 17%

TRANSACTION VOLUME 2014-2017 Other 24%

Residential, Office & Retail 76%

ISSUE II 2017 6 / 29

FOCUS

42%

60% 83%

81%

78% 58%

INCREASING INTEREST AND ACTIVITY

This is partly a consequence of some interesting new waves in the market; Logistic assets with long leases are now very sought-after and institutional investors have an appetite for Hotels – a segment, which they have not traditionally been involved in.

22%

80%

40%

In the last couple of years, Residential, Office and Retail transactions have dominated the investment volume with a total share of 78%-83%. However, the tendency of an increased interest in other segments such as Hotels and Industrial/Logistic that was already showing in 2016, has exploded into 2017 with the Residential, Office and Retail segments constituting just 58% of the year-to-date volume.

19%

20%

0%

2014

2015

2016

2017 H1

Residential, Office & Retail

According to Nicholas Thurø, Managing Partner at RED | Cushman & Wakefield, the increasing interest in other segments is a natural consequence of the current state of the market: “When you have a low supply of prime assets in the most sought-after segments combined with a high need for capital placement, it is only natural that investors look at opportunities elsewhere”.

Other

present”. The graph below shows the current risk premium paid for prime hotels and logistic assets compared to office- and retail assets. So what are the risk-factors to be considered in the “hot” segments? In the remainder of this article we have focused on highlighting key investment fundamentals pertaining to Hotels.

HISTORICALLY LOW YIELD LEVELS HAVE AN IMPACT The increased interest in other segments is happening at the same time as yield-levels for prime office and retail assets have dropped to a historical low. Nicholas Thurø recognizes this as another reason for the increased interest in other segments: “Investors are of course looking at where they can obtain the most attractive risk-adjusted returns, and with retail- and office yield levels being at what appears to be a bottom, other segments might hold better investment prospects – depending on how the investor assess the risk factors

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT MARKET

PRIME YIELD LEVELS 6.25%

7.00% 6.00% 5.00%

4.50%

4.00%

4.00%

3.00%

3.00%

2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Retail

Office

OCCUPIER MARKET

Hotel

APPENDIX

Industrial


HOTELS – INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS NOW PRESENT Hotel properties are considered a form of “hybrid” property asset, in which there is a combination of property risk and business risk associated with the investment. Hotels are driven by a hotel operator who is typically the tenant or owner. Thereby the risk assessment of a hotel property investment is different to other types of properties like office- retail- and industrial properties in the sense that the demand from a tenant perspective is limited to one type of tenant; hotel operators. The additional risk factors that are reflected in the investor yield for hotel properties in particular can be summed up to the following: - The number of potential tenants (hotel operators) are limited - The number of potential investors are limited, as the number of investors in the market for hotel investments is typically restricted to those with insight and activities within the business. However, this is not so much the case as it used to be. - The hotel market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic fluctuations and other shocks, e.g. terrorist attacks, natural disasters, boycotts etc. Hotel rents are often turnover-based, which is why the hotel performance directly affects the investor’s return. Inherently, the hotel industry is highly supported by tourism, which has been very strong in Copenhagen the last couple of years. As a result, the pipeline for new hotels being added to the market is on the highest level in a long time. Similarly, hotel transactions have been on the rise the last couple of years and amounted to DKK 2.4 bn in 2016. This trend is expected to continue, which is also evident by some large deals already in 2017 including the sale of Generator Hostel in Copenhagen,

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

HOTEL TRANSACTION VOLUME 2014-2017

DKK BN 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

2014

2015

40% of the Hilton Hotel near Copenhagen Airport as well as the recent sale of Bella Sky at approx. DKK 1.5 bn. A noteworthy development within hotel investments is the increasing interest from institutional investors. Globally, institutional investors have been highly active in this segment, however, it is not a segment where the Danish institutional investors have traditionally been involved. Yet, the current promising state of this segment and the obviously fierce competition in other segments have triggered the investment appetite within the hospitality segment in Denmark as well. In this regard, it is essential to understand, that the investors typically only acquire the property and not the actual hotel operation. Last year PensionDanmark and ATP acquired Hotel Marriott in Copenhagen while PFA has invested in several hotel projects in Copenhagen. According to Michael Nielsen, CEO at

...we will continue to see good activity within the “minor” segments, where especially Hotel assets in the larger cities still have an attractive risk profile.

INVESTMENT MARKET

2016

2017 H1

ATP Ejendomme, hotel conversions of existing office buildings are also of interest: ”We consider the combination of a relatively high rent level and long non-termination periods as an interesting alternative and supplement to office properties in today’s market. However, it is crucial that we can put together the right product of operator, hotel brand, rent and non-termination period, and of course location. Additionally, the usual prerequisites for good property investment regarding building qualities, etc. are also considered”.

OUTLOOK At RED | Cushman & Wakefield, we are confident that we will continue to see good activity within the “minor” segments, where especially Hotel assets in the larger cities still have an attractive risk profile. The still improving transparency of the market also helps the confidence of investors to look towards other segments than their traditional core ones. Feel free to visit our website and try our new “Dynamic Analysis Tool”, where it is possible to track the investment volume in the different segments and see whether the minor segments will continue along the same lines as H1 of 2017.

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2017 7 / 29


RED | Cushman & Wakefield facilitated the sale of Nørre Søgade 29 where the tenants made use of the right of first refusal and formed a cooperative housing association. The former Le Mans racing driver Tom Kristensen was one of the sellers.

ISSUE II 2017 8 / 29

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


MACROECONOMICS

ISSUE II 2017 9 / 29


MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW ECONOMIC UPTURN CONTINUE TO MANIFEST The Danish economy continue its modest, but steady advancement and GDP growth is expected to pick up in the coming years. The upturn is, by the Danish National Bank, characterized as balanced, but the growth potential is also limited due to structural factors in the economy. Denmark’s GDP grew by 1.3% in 2016 according to the latest data released by Statistics Denmark, and while this is slightly lower than in 2015, it is mainly attributed to lower demand from export markets. To stress the fact that growth is in fact picking up, the Danish National Bank now forecasts growth of 1.6% in both 2017 and 2018. This is an upward revision from previous estimates of 1.4% and 1.5%. The beginning of 2017 is further evidence to the fact that the economy is advancing. GDP grew by 2.2% in the first quarter of 2017 compared to the same quarter a year ago. The growth was mainly driven by private consumption and export. Employment went up by almost 50,000 people last year and the accumulated figure, since the beginning of 2013, has now reached 135,000. The rise in employment is solely driven by the private sector, well spread across industries, although transport, commerce and the construction industry are some that have experienced a very good development. The domestic demand continues to develop positively, mainly driven by low interest rates, higher disposable incomes and higher savings and wealth deposits.

ISSUE II 2017 10 / 29

FOCUS

MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES KEY VARIABLE

A YEAR AGO

MOST RECENT

GDP Growth Rate y/y

1.60%

1.20%

Inflation Rate y/y

0.50%

0.30%

Unemployment Rate - Denmark

6.50%

6.60%

Unemployment Rate - Copenhagen Region

6.30%

7.20%

10 year Government Bond

0.48%

0.30%

-0.23%

-0.54%

2.65%

2.38%

Short Term Mortgage Rate - 1 and 2 year bonds Long Term Mortgage Rate - 30 year bonds

TREND

Source: Statistics Denmark, Association of Danish Mortgage Banks and The Danish National Bank

GDP GROWTH IN REAL TERMS 2.5% 2.0%

1.9%

1.5%

1.7%

1.6%

1.3%

1.3% 0.9%

1.0% 0.5%

0.2%

0.0% -0.5%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

GDP - real growth %

For an extended period, the private real estate market has shown good progress, although the speed of progress has been divided. According to the Danish National Bank, real estate prices grew on average by 4% nationally in 2016, while the prices in Copenhagen on average grew by 8%. This difference in the magnitude of the growth has been observable for the last couple of years. The high growth rates seen for Copenhagen

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT MARKET

are mostly attributed high population growth and a bettering of the economy. However, recent years of residential development in Copenhagen have resulted in that 2016 saw the most completed new residential units in the city since 2007. The Danish National Bank expects the high construction activity to continue and thus price increases are expected to be at a slower pace going forward.

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


INVESTMENT MARKET

ISSUE II 2017 11 / 29


INVESTMENT MARKET - OFFICE A CONTINUOUS HIGH LEVEL OF SALE & LEASEBACK DEALS Investment activity in the office segment in Q1 2017 reached approx. DKK 1.7 bn and continued to be dominated by Danish investors. The Q1 volume was mainly dominated by institutional investors led by Sampension and Soltra Capital Partners’ acquisition of Vestas Wind Systems’ headquarters in Aarhus. The acquisition amounted to DKK 737 M and the sale was structured as a Sale & Leaseback (S&L), hence Vestas stays as tenant.

INVESTOR BREAKDOWN – Q2 2016 - Q1 2017 Others 7% Private Investors 8% Real Estate Companies 53%

Property Funds

Although the Q1 2017 volume was mainly dominated by institutional investors, real estate companies have dominated the office segment during the last 12 months, which reached approx. DKK 17.5 bn and increased by approx. 30% compared to the previous year (Q2 2015-Q1 2016), where the total volume amounted to approx. DKK 12.4 bn. Yield levels appear to have stabilized around 4% for prime assets in Copenhagen. We expect this level to endure in the short term.

ISSUE II 2017 12 / 29

FOCUS

17.5

16%

S&L deals offer multiple benefits for occupiers, primarily because such deals allow the occupier to free up funds tied to real estate to invest in core business operations as well as increasing the occupier’s flexibility. Current prices of well-located and fully let office properties are very high and as such the occupier’s incentive to divest is also high. From the investor’s point of view, the benefits obtained by letting to high credit worthy tenants with long lease commitments are often one of the main motivational drivers. We expect this trend to continue well into 2017, because of these favorable benefits both for the occupier and investor.

BN DKK

Institutional Investors 18% DANISH INVESTORS - 63 %

0%

20%

FOREIGN INVESTORS - 37 %

40%

60%

80%

100%

Source: RED | Cushman & Wakefield

PRIME YIELDS SUBAREA

Q2 2015

Q2 2016

Q2 2017

Copenhagen City (CBD)

4.75%

4.25%

4.00%

Copenhagen E & W

5.75%

5.50%

5.00%

Frederiksberg

5.75%

5.50%

5.00%

Harbour areas

4.75%

4.25%

4.00%

South Harbour

6.00%

6.00%

5.50%

Ørestad

5.75%

5.50%

5.50%

Copenhagen N & NW

6.50%

6.50%

6.00%

South and West of Copenhagen

7.25%

7.25%

7.00%

North of Copenhagen

5.25%

5.25%

5.00%

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


INVESTMENT MARKET - RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES STILL IN HIGH DEMAND The residential segment is still the largest in terms of total transaction volume across all segments. Following a strong performance in the past three quarters, particularly in Q4 2016, the residential transaction volume reached DKK 4.1 bn in Q1 2017. The continued high activity in this segment has led to a total volume of approx. DKK 24.3 bn over the last 12 months. This is a similar level as the previous year (Q2 2015-Q1 2016) and the residential segment is thus still very much favored by the investors. Property funds were the most active investors over the last 12 months closely followed by real estate companies. Institutional investors have also been active in the residential segment over the last 12 months as they have accounted for approx. 23% compared to the previous year (Q2 2015-Q1 2016), where they only accounted for 6%. The residential investment activity was propped by the Swedish real estate company Heimstaden during Q1 2017. Heimstaden paid approx. DKK 1.2 bn for three turn-key residential projects on Islands Brygge of 30,000 sqm in total distributed on 265 apartments and 2,500 sqm for commercial use. Another substantial residential transaction in Q1 2017 was Patrizia’s acquisition of a 15,000 sqm residential development project on the Teglholmen peninsula in the Sydhavnen district of Copenhagen.

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTOR BREAKDOWN – Q2 2016 - Q1 2017 Others 5% Private Investors 11% Property Funds 31%

24.3 BN DKK

Institutional Investors 23% Real Estate Companies 30% DANISH INVESTORS - 53 %

0%

20%

FOREIGN INVESTORS - 47 %

40%

60%

80%

100%

Source: RED | Cushman & Wakefield

PRIME YIELDS

PRIME MARKET RENT DKK/SQM SUBAREA

Q2 2017

SUBAREA

Q2 2017

Copenhagen City

2,000 - 2,200

Copenhagen Area - rent control

1.50 - 3.00%

Copenhagen E, W & N

1,700 - 1,900

Copenhagen Suburb - rent control

3.00 - 4.00%

Frederiksberg

2,000 - 2,200

Copenhagen Area - market rent

3.60%

North Harbour

2,000 - 2,200

Copenhagen Suburb - market rent

4.50%

South Harbour

1,600 - 1,800

Copenhagen S

1,500 - 1,700

North of Copenhagen

1,700 - 1,900

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2017 13 / 29


INVESTMENT MARKET - RETAIL FOREIGN INVESTORS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE IN Q1 2017 The beginning of 2017 seems to follow the same trajectory as both 2016 and 2015 with a strong interest for retail assets from especially foreign investors. Foreign investors accounted for approx. 87% of the total transaction volume in this segment in Q1 2017 compared to 75% for the last four quarters, which is very similar to the previous year (Q2 2015-Q1 2016), where foreign investors accounted for approx. 73%. The investment volume for the last 12 months reached approx. DKK 8.7 bn, and was clearly dominated by property funds. Especially noticeable this quarter was McDonald’s sale of its Nordic restaurants to British private equity firm Terra Firma Capital for DKK 922 m. Also notable was the global property fund Hines’ acquisition of five prime high-street assets in Copenhagen at a price of approx. DKK 885 m. Once again, investments in high street assets boosted the overall retail volume.

INVESTOR BREAKDOWN – Q2 2016 - Q1 2017

Others Institutional Investors

3%

7% Real Estate Companies 10% Property Funds 69%

8.7

Private Investors 11%

BN DKK

DANISH INVESTORS - 25 %

We still experience pressure on the yields and we might therefore see further compression to the very core prime products.

0%

20%

FOREIGN INVESTORS - 75 %

40%

60%

80%

100%

Source: RED | Cushman & Wakefield

PRIME YIELDS STREET/SUBMARKET

Q2 2015

Q2 2016

Q2 2017

Strøget (incl. Vimmelskaftet)

4.00%

3.50%

3.00%

Strøget area

5.00%

4.75%

4.00%

Østerbrogade

5.50%

5.50%

5.25%

Nørrebrogade

6.00%

5.75%

5.50%

Købmagergade

4.00%

3.50%

3.00%

Lyngby

5.75%

5.50%

4.75%

5.00%

4.75%

4.00%

SHOPPING CENTRES Copenhagen

ISSUE II 2017 14 / 29

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


INVESTMENT MARKET - INDUSTRIAL A SEGMENT ON THE RISE During the first quarter of 2017 we have seen a high investment activity in the industrial/logistics sector. The total transaction volume rose to DKK 1.3 bn, thus reaching the second-highest quarterly volume since 2010. The foreign property funds dominated the segment with a 84% share. The transaction activity in Q1 was propped up by M7 Real Estate and Blackstone’s acquisition of the DaRE Portfolio that includes prime industrial assets scattered around Copenhagen and the Triangle area in Jutland. This deal alone amounted to DKK 950 M.

INVESTOR BREAKDOWN – Q2 2016 - Q1 2017 Institutional Investors Others 2% 6% Real Estate Companies 7% Property Funds 75%

Private Investors 10%

3.3 BN DKK

The demand for industrial/logistic assets have been growing in recent years and we still see significant interest from investors towards this segment as they believe that the risk adjusted returns are looking more and more attractive. To satisfy the increasing demand for prime industrial properties, Copenhagen Airport intends to develop a 170,000 sqm logistics park surrounding the airport, while Køge Municipality also aims to release a new batch of 800,000 sq. m. land for logistics purposes. Prime yields for modern logistics properties with long leases are facing a downward pressure. Prime yields in the Copenhagen area are now at a level of 6.25%, while at 6.50% in the Triangle area in Jutland.

DANISH INVESTORS - 25 %

0%

FOREIGN INVESTORS - 75 %

20%

40%

MACROECONOMICS

80%

100%

Source: RED | Cushman & Wakefield

PRIME YIELDS

PRIME MARKET RENT DKK/SQM SUBAREA

Q2 2017

SUBAREA

Q2 2017

Copenhagen Area

575

Copenhagen Area

6.25%

Triangle Area

475

Triangle Area

6.50%

Aarhus Area

425

Aarhus Area

6.75%

Modern logistics properties with long leases

Modern logistics properties with long leases

FOCUS

60%

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2017 15 / 29


Patrizia acquired 251 condominiums in Copenhagen and Aarhus from Core Bolig. The aerial view shows Applebys Plads on Christianshavn in Copenhagen where 116 of the condominiums are located.

ISSUE II 2017 16 / 29

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


TRANSACTIONS

ISSUE II 2017 17 / 29


TRANSACTIONS OFFICE STREET STREETNAME NAME

LOCATION LOCATION

DATE DATE

Office Portfolio Hedeager 1-5 & Kystvejen 29

Valby Århus

Q2 2016/Q2

Christiansgade Holmens Kanal302

Aarhus CPH City C

Hedeager 42-44 Albanigade 30

Aarhus N Odense

Rytterkasernen 11 Peter Bangs Vej 24-26

SIZE SIZE(SQM) (SQM)

PRICE PRICE VENDOR VENDORTYPE TYPE (M (MDKK) DKK)

VENDOR VENDORNAME NAME

BUYER TYPE BUYER TYPE

BUYER NAME BUYER NAME

Unknown foreign Unknown foreign investor investor Institutional Investor PensionDanmark

9,093 23,600

211 Other Edlund 555.0 Real Estate Company C.W. Obel

Q2 2016/Q1

3,192 49,065

Est. 80 Real Obel Bank 1,400.0 Userestate company C.W. Danske

RealProperty estate company Fund

DADES Standard Life Investments

Q1 2016/Q1

61,080 4,300

736 Wind Systems A/S Institutional investor 52.3 User Institutional InvestorVestas Danica Pension Private Investor

Sampension & Solstra Capital Karsten Bill Rasmussen

Odense Frederiksberg

2016/Q1 Q1

8,385 5,345

Karsten Bill Rasmussen Pensam

Dag Hammarskjolds Allé 28 Porthusgade 1 Overgaden Oven Vandet 60A Vestergade 4-6 (Søkvæsthuset)

CPH E Aalborg CPH City CPH City

2015/Q4 Q1 2015/Q4 Q1

1,596 7,940 8,826 2,239

Forenede Ejendoms61.0 Real Institutional InvestorDeDanica Pension Private Investor 117 estate company Institutional investor selskaber 63.0 Private Investor Fritz Henrik Schur Public Institution 77 Private investor Private Investor Real estate company 161.0 Public Institution The Danish Armed Forces Private Investor 66 Private investor Private Investor Property fund

StoreBangs Kongensgade Peter Vej 34-3622

CPH City Frederiksberg

2015/Q4 Q1

1,244 2,782

48.5 Realestate Estatecompany CompanyDeJLForenede EjendomEjendoms- Institutional Other Fund 62 Real investor selskaber

Datavej 22 Store Kongensgade 62

Birkerød CPH City

Q1 2015/Q4

8,008 1,772

57 Private 52.2 Privateinvestor Investor

Private PrivateInvestor Investor

Private Schur Realinvestor Estate CompanyFritzJeudan

Bredgade 38 10 Stormgade

CPH City CPH City

Q1 2015/Q4

1,740 2,374

51 Private 72.0 Publicinvestor Institution

Private Investor Freja Ejendomme

RealProperty estate company Fund

Copenhagen Property Investment Artha Kapitalforvaltning

Nybrogade Strømmen126

CPH City Nørresundby

Q1 2015/Q4

1,456 11,404

51 Institutional investor Realkreditrådet 73.5 User RTX A/S

RealPrivate estateInvestor company

Karberghus K/S Strømmen

Enrum Slot

Vedbæk

Q1

2,777

48 Public institution

Finansiel Stabilitet

Private investor

Private Investor

Lokesvej 15

Åbyhøj

Q1

4,569

42 User

Per Aarsleff A/S

User

Danske Fragtmand

VENDOR VENDORNAME NAME

BUYER TYPE BUYER TYPE

BUYER NAME BUYER NAME

The Turkish Embassy Skovly Ejendomme Lennart Lajboschitz Copenhagen Capital A/S Erik & Susanna Olesens AlmenPensam velgørende Fond

RESIDENTIAL STREET STREETNAME NAME

LOCATION LOCATION

DATE DATE

SIZE SIZE(SQM) (SQM)

Bagsværdlund Hedeager 1-5 & Kystvejen 29 Duegården Holmens Kanal 2 Hostrup Have Albanigade 30 HD Ejendomme - Mixed Portfolio Rytterkasernen 11 Ø-Huset Dag Hammarskjolds Allé 28 Residential Portfolio Overgaden Oven Vandet 60A Core III - Residential Portfolio (Søkvæsthuset) Bryggens Bastion Store Kongensgade 22 Bjerglandsbyen

Bagsværd Århus Frederiksberg CPH City Frederiksberg Odense Denmark Odense CPH S CPH E Aalborg E CPH City Denmark

Q2 2016/Q2 Q2 2016/Q1 Q2 2016/Q1 Q2 2016/Q1 Q2 2015/Q4 Q2 2015/Q4 Q1

9,420 270 23,600 555.0 21,326 482 49,065 1,400.0 64,777 1,690 4,300 52.3 Est. 356,000 Est. 4,200 8,385 61.0 27,400 880 1,596 63.0 3,920 Est. 71 8,826 161.0 Est. 24,000 Confidential

CPH S CPH City Brønshøj

Q1 2015/Q4 Q1

30,000 1,244 11,237

Store Kongensgade Residential Portfolio 62

CPH City Randers

2015/Q4 Q1

1,772 18,475

Stormgade Bytoften 1 10

CPHRisskov City

2015/Q4 Q1

2,374 10,178

72.0 Private Publicinvestor Institution Est. 153

Freja Ejendomme Private Investor

Property Fund Private investor

ArthaInvestor Kapitalforvaltning Private

Strømmen 6 1 & Klostertorvet Guldsmedgade 4 og 4B

Nørresundby Aarhus C

2015/Q4 Q1

11,404 3,316

73.5 User 79 Private investor

RTX A/S Private Investor

Private Investor Real estate company

K/S Strømmen West Star Property

Tordenskjoldsgade 30

CPH City

Q1

1,391

72 Private investor

Private Investor

Private investor

Bo Ladegaard Bendtsen

Edithsvej 2B

Glostrup

Q1

2,734

70 Real estate company Duras A/S

Private investor

Private Investor

Svendborg

Q1

6,840

68 Developer

Living Development

Private investor

Erik Skjærbæk

Rungsted Kyst

Q1

3,322

51 Private investor

Private Investor

Developer

ELF Development

CPH City

Q1

1,686

51 Private investor

Private Investor

Private investor

Bo Ladegaard Bendtsen

Classensgade 5

CPH E

Q1

1,755

42 Private investor

Private Investor

Property fund

Keystone Investment Management A/S

Turesensgade 6

CPH City

Q1

1,564

38 User

Andelsboligforening

Private investor

Private Investor

CPH W

Q1

2,078

37 Private investor

Private Investor

Private investor

Private Investor

Bio-karréen - Brogade 17 & Kullinggade 4 Sophienberg Slot Store Kongensgade 22-24

Vesterbrogade 77

ISSUE II 2017 18 / 29

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

PRICE PRICE VENDOR VENDORTYPE TYPE (M (MDKK) DKK)

Developer Calum Real estate company Heimstaden Real Estate Company C.W. Obel Institutional Investor PensionDanmark Other Nykredit Real estate company Akelius Residential Property AB User Danske Bank Property Fund Standard Life Investments Other Nykredit Real estate company Heimstaden Institutional Investor Danica Pension Private Investor Karsten Bill Rasmussen Real estate company HD Ejendomme A/S Property fund NIAM Institutional Investor Danica Pension Private Investor Karsten Bill Rasmussen Developer Skanska AB Real estate company Heimstaden Private Investor Fritz Henrik Schur Public Institution The Turkish Embassy Private investor Private Investor Private investor Private Investor Public Institution The Danish Armed Forces Private Investor Lennart Lajboschitz Property fund Core Bolig Property fund Patrizia

1,200 Real estate company Bach Gruppen 48.5 Real Estate Company JL Ejendom 380 Developer RHB Development 52.2 Property Privatefund Investor 244

Real estate company Other Fund Real estate company

Heimstaden Erik & Susanna Olesens Almenvelgørende Fond Heimstaden

Private Real Estate Jeudan NDP AssetInvestor Management Property fund CompanyNIAM

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


RETAIL STREET NAME

LOCATION

DATE

SIZE (SQM) PRICE (M VENDOR TYPE DKK)

VENDOR NAME

BUYER TYPE

BUYER NAME

McDonald's Portfolio

Denmark

Q1

31,638

Stand-alone Grocery Shop Portfolio

Est. 921 User

McDonalds

Property fund

Terra Firma

Denmark

Q1

Est. 12,000

Est. 250 Developer

Innovater

Property fund

Sinai Group

Taastrup Retail Park Without IKEA

Taastrup

Q1

7,981

Est. 200 User

IKEA

Property fund

Pradera

Lyngby Hovedgade 63

Kgs. Lyngby

Q1

4,200

Est. 147 Private investor

KPC

Institutional investor PensionDanmark

Købmagergade 7

CPH City

Q1

Tårnby Torv 3-9

Tårnby

Q1

8,947

75 User

Familien Amdrup

Property fund

Dansk Supermarked

Institutional investor AP Ejendomme

Toftegårds Alle 5-9

Valby

Q1

3,831

69 Private investor

Private Investor

Property fund

Alma Property Partners

VENDOR NAME

BUYER NAME

Solstra

Wenaasgruppen

Hotel Property Group

AB Balder

807 Confidential Private investor

Confidential

HOTEL HOTEL NAME

LOCATION

Hotel Bella Sky

DATE

PRICE PER ROOM (DKK)

PRICE (M DKK)

CPH S

Q2

1,847,291

1,500

Hotel Portfolio - Star, Mercur, Richmond and Plaza CPH W

Q2

1,606,765

760

Quality Airport Hotel

Kastrup

Q2

Est. 1,150,000

Est. 280

European Properties A/S

Midstar

40% of Hotel Hilton, CPH Airport

Kastrup

Q1

Est. 2,700,000

Est. 413

Københavns Lufthavne A/S

Strawberry Fields

Generator Hostel Copenhagen

CPH City

Q1

Est. 1,500,000

Est. 258

Patron Capital Ltd

Queensgate Investments

LAND STREET NAME

PURPOSE

LOCATION

DATE

SIZE (SQM. OF PRICE PER SQM. OF BUILDING RIGHT) BUILDING RIGHT

Østerbro 41

Residential

Odense C

Q2

34,500

Est. 5,000

Rolighedsvej 1

Residential

Ballerup

Q2

11,500

Est. 3,500

Teglholmsgade 38

Residential

CPH SW

Q1

15,500

6,048

40% of land for Nordic Choice Hotel, CPH Airport

Hotel

Kastrup

Q1

7,200

Est. 6,500

PRICE VENDOR NAME (M DKK)

BUYER NAME

Est. 173 Coop Danmark

Unknown Investor

Est. 40 Freja Ejendomme A/S 94 NCC

DADES Artha

Est. 47 Københavns Lufthavne A/S Strawberry Fields

INDUSTRIAL STREET NAME

LOCATION

DATE

SIZE (SQM)

DaRE Portfolio 2017

Denmark

Q1

217,894

Greve Main 30

Greve

Q1

12,266

Fabriksvej 4

Odense

Q1

13,000

Est. 65 User

Nøglegårdsvej 1

Lynge

Q1

7,845

41 User

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

PRICE VENDOR TYPE (M DKK) 695 Property fund 80 Other

INVESTMENT MARKET

VENDOR NAME

BUYER TYPE

BUYER NAME

M7 Real Estate & Oaktree

Property fund

M7 Real Estate & Blackstone

Nykredit

Property fund

NREP

Brenderup

Unknown Investor

Unknown Investor

Hamelin A/S

Property fund

Solstra

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2017 19 / 29


4,580 sqm office space in a new office property located directly to the highway in Lyngby with Formula Auto as neighbor, is currently in the market for letting.

ISSUE II 2017 20 / 29

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


OCCUPIER MARKET

ISSUE II 2017 21 / 29


OCCUPIER MARKET - OFFICE SHARED WORKSPACE – A NEW TREND FOR OCCUPIERS

In the traditional office segment the activity is high and vacancy rates are stil quite low.

La Cours Vej 7

Frederiksberg 2017/Q2

Tuborg Boulevard 12

CPH Area

Bredevej 2

CPH Area

Kalvebod Brygge 35

CPH V

2017/Q1

5,582 Datea

Bygningsstyrelsen

Roholmsvej 19

CPH Area

2017/Q1

3,958 Castellum

Iveco Danmark A/S

Kalvebod Brygge 43

CPH V

2017/Q1

3,673 Castellum

Genmab A/S

Kalvebod Brygge 45

CPH V

2017/Q1

2,500 Castellum

BASF

Rigensgade 11

CPH City

2017/Q1

1,614 Rigensgade 11 A/S

Meyers Catering & Compass Human Resources Group

Sundkrogsgade 21

CPH East

2017/Q1

1,421 Danica Ejendomsselskab

Bird&Bird

Grønningen 1

CPH City

2017/Q1

1,095 Thylander Gruppen A/S

Wibroe Duckert & Partners

Bygmestervej 10

CPH NV

2017/Q1

978 Fokus Asset Management

Fonden for socialt ansvar

Rosenborggade 15

CPH City

2017/Q1

760 Catella

Altor Equity Partners A/S

Langagervej

Aalborg

2017/Q1

DATE

SIZE (SQM) LANDLORD

TENANT

5,547 Fokus Asset Management

Edlund

2017/Q2

3,914 PKA

Lundgrens

2017/Q1

10,667 PKA

NNE Pharmaplan A/S

5,500 N/A

GomSpace

VACANCY RATES AND UNEMPLOYMENT Office vacancy rates compared to unemployment in Copenhagen 12.00% 5.00%

15

4.50% 10.00% 4.00%

10

3.50% 8.00% 3.00%

5

2.50% 6.00% 2.00% 4.00% 1.50%

0

Unemployment Copenhagen Area

Source: Statistics Denmark & Oline.dk

PRIME RENT DKK/SQM SUBAREA

Q2 2017

Copenhagen City (CBD)

1,750

Copenhagen E & W

1,250

Frederiksberg

1,300

Harbour areas

1,850

South Harbour

1,300

Ørestad

1,350

Copenhagen N & NW

1,200

South and west of Copenhagen North of Copenhagen

950 1,300

*Base rents ex. service charges

ISSUE II 2017 22 / 29

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

Q2 2017

Q1 2017

Q4Q32016 2016

Q2Q12016 2016 Q3 2016

Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q1 2016

Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q3 2015

Vacancy rate Copenhagen area Vacancy rate Copenhagen Area

Q4 2014 2014 Q1Q32015

2014 Q3Q12014

Vacancy rate Copenhagen City Vacancy rate Copenhagen City

Q1Q32014 2013 Q2 2014

-10

Q3 2013 Q1 2013 Q4 2013

0.00% 0.00%

Q1 2013 Q3 2012 Q2 2013

-5

Q3 2012 2012 Q4Q12012

1.00% 2.00% 0.50%

2011 Q2Q32012

We expect to see this trend more in Denmark in the next few years, where flexibility and sharing is a part of the sharing economy, and property owners needs to take this into account.

LOCATION

Q4Q12011 2011 Q1 2012

This increasing tendency is a result of a new way of thinking of which research showing that 70% of millennials might reject traditional employment/business and choose to work independently. The younger generation wants freedom to choose the type of work to do and the flexibility to work when and where they want.

STREET NAME

Q2 2011 Q3 2010 Q3 2011

In Denmark, we have seen examples of traditional office hotels, but only a few examples of shared communities. Noho in the Meat Packing District in Copenhagen is an example of an office community with the main purpose of sharing and creating with other mindlike people.

SIGNIFICANT LEASES

Q1 2010 Q1 2011

The increasing trend of independent workers used by companies that are expanding their workforce in periods of peak demand has developed a new type of office lease; Office communities. A community that offers work desks, offices, meeting facilities and a wide range of services built for sharing ideas and knowledge. An example of this is WeWork, a workspace designed for fresh ideas, organic networking, and month-to-month flexibility. WeWork is located all over the world with locations in Europe but has not yet laid eyes on Denmark.


OCCUPIER MARKET - RETAIL ØSTERGADE WILL BENEFIT FROM THE NEW METRO LINE Kongens Nytorv has been undergoing construction for almost a decade. The continual development of the infrastructural City Circle Line has had a huge impact on the area. The first part of Østergade, stretching from Kongens Nytorv to Bremerholm, is considered either the beginning or the end of Strøget and has been the home for the city’s luxury retailers since the late 19th century. Today, the street can be related to as “the sleeping giant” as the construction of Kongens Nytorv has hauled the natural development of the area. Now, Kongens Nytorv is expected to be completed next year and the neighbours seem to anticipate the completion and embrace the wait by refurbishing the stores. Both Hugo Boss, Tommy Hilfiger and the Danish watchmaker Klarlund has recently invested large amounts in redoing the spaces, preparing them for when the street is again blooming. The Copenhagen Metro has recently unveiled the plans for the Kongens Nytorv Station, which includes a relocation of the main stairs forcing the pedestrians towards Strøget, which will be benefitting Østergade exclusively.

SIGNIFICANT LEASES STREET NAME

LOCATION

DATE

SIZE (SQM)

NEW TENANT

Waterfront

Hellerup

2017/Q1

N/A

Istid

Strandgade 83 - Krøyers Plads

CPH City

2017/Q1

525

Føtex Food

Købmagergade 45

CPH City

2017/Q1

130

Calvin Klein Jeans

Jægersborggade 57

CPH N

2017/Q1

110

The Coffee Collective

Axel Towers

CPH City

2017/Q2

N/A

AOC

Klampenborgvej 215

Lyngby

2017/Q2

1,500

Power

Postgården

CPH City

2017/Q2

1,325

Arket - H&M

Strandvejen 141

Hellerup

2017/Q2

423

Skjern Bank

Ny Østergade 32

CPH City

2017/Q2

199

Ace & Tate

Pilestræde 35

CPH City

2017/Q2

148

Viu Eyewear

Magasin

CPH City

2017/Q2

100

Lagkagehuset

Købmagergade 7

CPH City

2017/Q2

46

Atelier Rebul

PRIME RENT DKK/SQM - ZONE A SUBAREA

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

CHANGE

Strøget (incl. Vimmelskaftet)

23,500

23,500

0.00%

Strøget area - side streets

10,000

10,000

0.00%

4,000

4,000

0.00%

Østerbrogade Nørrebrogade

2,000

2,000

0.00%

Købmagergade

22,000

22,000

0.00%

VACANCY RATES AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Retail vacancy rates compared to consumer confidence in Copenhagen 5.00% 5.00%

15 15

4.50% 4.00%

10

3.50% 3.00%

5

2.50% 0

2.00% 1.50%

-5

1.00%

Vacancy Copenhagen City City Vacancy rate rate Copenhagen

Vacancy Copenhagen area area Vacancy rate rate Copenhagen

-10 Q2 2017

Q4 2016 Q3 2017 2016 Q1

Q3 2013 Q4 Q3 2013 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 Q1 2014 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 Q3 2014 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2016 2016 Q3

0.00%

Q1 Q1 2010 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 Q3 2010 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 Q1 2011 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q3 2012 2012 Q4 Q1 2013 Q1 2013 2013 Q2

0.50%

Consumer confidence index

Source: Statistics Denmark & Oline.dk

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2017 23 / 29


FOOTFALL ANALYSIS KØBMAGERGADE EXPERIENCED THE LARGEST INCREASE IN FOOTFALL COUNTS Overall, Copenhagen high streets have experienced a marginal increase in footfall counts in Q1 2017 compared to Q1 2016. This increase can be seen in conjunction with the fact that some construction work across the Copenhagen high streets have been completed, thereby opening the streets for better access and flow. The highest footfall increase is seen in the area around Rundetårn and Frederiksborggade/ Købmagergade, where the number of counts has increased by approx. 600-700 counts.

Kultorvet

ager Købm e

gad

Even though some construction work has been completed, there are still ongoing obstacles influencing the footfall, hereunder the construction of the new metro stations at the City Hall Square and Gl. Strand as well as the current renovation of Postgården. Looking forward, we expect that as the different construction works are completed, there will be an increase in the footfall count in the respective areas.

4.

5,500

COUNTING METHODOLOGY RED carries out the counts on Fridays at 4 pm with the purpose of registrering a development and conclude a level of footfall at different locations on Strøget and Købmagergade. The footfall is counted manually from both directions.

Vimme

e

ad

Nyg

Gammeltorv 3.

4,800 e

ad

F

ISSUE II 2017 24 / 29

FOCUS

sb

rik

e red

MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT  MARKET Rådhuspladsen

g erg

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


FOOTFALL COUNTS IN Q1 2016 AND Q1 2017

THE MAP The map shows the counting points and the average footfall per hour the last 12 months.

5.

5,400

10.

NO.

STREET NAME

Q1 2016

Q1 2017

CHANGE

1 2

Østergade

3,065

3,177

112

Amagertorv/Østergade

5,578

5,657

79

3

Frederiksberggade

5,274

4,790

-484

4

Frederiksborggade/Købmagergade

4,936

5,494

558

5

Rundetårn

4,740

5,431

691

6

Købmagergade/Silkegade

5,280

5,344

64

7

Vimmelskaftet/Amagertorv

6,366

6,412

46

8

Købmagergade/Valkendorfsgade

3,982

-

9

Købmagergade/Løvstræde

5,492

-

10

Pilestræde/Kronprinsensgade

2,668

-

2,700

9.

5,500 8.

Kgs. Nytorv

4,000

ade

1. sterg Ø

3,200 6.

5,300 Købm ager

gade

e

gad

Øster 2.

ertorv

Amag

7.

6,400

5,700

elskaftet

AVERAGE FOOTFALL COUNT 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

Summer months

Christmas shopping 2014

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

2015

Total average 2016

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2017 25 / 29


THE LETTING OF POSTGAARDEN H&M, a company amongst the largest fashion retailers in the world, has chosen Copenhagen as one of the first four cities to be subject to their new investment, ARKET. Opening in 2017, RED | Cushman Wakefield assisted the landlord with the deal. Next door in Postgaarden, French cosmetic store Sephora has opened the first Danish independent store in June. Also in this case, RED | Cushman Wakefield assisted the landlord.

ISSUE II 2017 26 / 29

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


APPENDIX - DANISH TRANSLATION

ISSUE II 2017 27 / 29


ENGLISH VERSION AT PAGE 6

UDGIVELSE II FOKUS DE MINDRE SEGMENTER STORMER FREM De 3 store segmenter - Bolig, Kontor og Retail – har siden 2014 udgjort 76% af den danske transaktionsvolumen, mens afkastkravene samtidig er nået det, der ligner et foreløbigt bundniveau. I kombination med investorernes store kapitalplaceringsbehov har dette øget investorernes interesse for andre segmenter såsom hoteller og logistik.

ANDEL AF TRANSAKTIONSVOLUMEN 100% 17%

Årsagen til denne udvikling skal til dels findes i nogle interessante tendenser i markedet; Logistikejendomme med lange lejekontrakter er voldsomt efterspurgte, og institutionelle investorer har nu fået

TRANSAKTIONSVOLUMEN 2014-2017 Øvrige segmenter 24%

22%

80%

42%

60%

40%

ØGET INTERESSE OG AKTIVITET Bolig-, kontor- og retailtransaktioner har i de seneste år domineret den samlede transaktionsvolumen med en samlet andel på 78%-83%. Nu ser vi dog, at den øgede interesse for andre segmenter såsom hoteller og industri/logistik, der allerede begyndte at vise sig i 2016, for alvor har taget fart i 2017, hvor bolig-, kontor- og retailtransaktioner samlet blot udgør 58% af den foreløbige volumen i 2017 (år til dato).

19%

83%

81%

78% 58%

20%

0%

2014

2015

2016

Bolig, Kontor & Retail

appetit for hoteller, som traditionelt set ikke er et segment, de før har været involveret i. Den øgede interesse for øvrige segmenter er en naturlig konsekvens af den nuværende markedssituation ifølge Nicholas Thurø, Managing Partner hos RED | Cushman & Wakefield: ”Når udbuddet af prime aktiver indenfor de mest efterspurgte segmenter er lavt kombineret med et højt kapitalplaceringsbehov, så er det kun naturligt, at investorerne kigger efter muligheder andre steder”.

Øvrige segmenter

mere interessante – alt efter, hvordan den pågældende investor vurderer den hertil forbundne risiko”. Grafen nedenfor illustrerer den risikopræmie, der aktuelt betales for prime hotel- og logistikejendomme sammenlignet med prime kontor- og retailejendomme. Så hvilke risikofaktorer bør der holdes øje med i de “hotte” segmenter? I den resterende del af artiklen vil vi belyse nogle af de betragtninger, der er vigtige at gøre sig i forhold til hotelinvesteringer.

HISTORISK LAVE AFKASTKRAV PÅVIRKER

Bolig, Kontor & Retail 76%

ISSUE II 2017 28 / 29

FOCUS

Den øgede interesse for øvrige segmenter sker samtidig med, at afkastkravene for prime kontor- og retailejendomme er faldet til et historisk lavt niveau. Nicholas Thurø angiver også dette som en af årsagerne til tendensen: ”Investorerne er selvfølgelig på udkig efter, hvor de kan opnå de mest attraktive risikojusterede afkast, og når prime afkast for retail og kontor er nede i, hvad der ligner et bundniveau, er andre segmenter måske

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

2017 H1

PRIME AFKASTNIVEAUER 6,25%

7,00% 6,00% 5,00%

4,50%

4,00%

4,00%

3,00%

3,00%

2,00% 1,00% 0,00% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Retail

Kontor

OCCUPIER  MARKET

Hotel

APPENDIX

Industri


HOTELLER - INSTITUTIONELLE INVESTORER ER NU TIL STEDE Hotelejendomme betragtes som en form for ”hybridt” ejendomsaktiv, hvor der er en kombination af ejendomsspecifikke risici og forretningsspecifikke risici associeret med investeringen. Hoteller drives af en hoteloperatør, som typisk er lejer eller ejer. Således er risikobetragtningen for investering i en hotelejendom anderledes end den for øvrige typer ejendomme såsom kontor-, retail- og logistikejendomme i den forstand, at efterspørgslen fra lejersiden er begrænset til én type lejere; hoteloperatører. De ekstra risikofaktorer, der er indeholdt i afkastkravet specifikt for hotelejendomme, kan opsummeres til følgende: - Antallet af potentielle lejere (hoteloperatører) er begrænset. - Antallet af potentielle investorer er begrænset, idet antallet af hotelinvestorer typisk er begrænset til dem, der har indsigt og aktiviteter i hotelbranchen. Dette er dog ikke i så høj grad tilfældet som tidligere. - Hotelmarkedets følsomhed overfor makroøkonomiske udsving og andre chok, fx terroristangreb, naturkatastrofer, boykots etc. Hotellejer er ofte omsætningsbaserede, hvorfor hotellers præstation direkte influerer på investorernes afkast. I sagens natur er hotelindustrien i høj grad påvirket af turisme, som har været særdeles stærk i København i de senere år. Som resultat heraf er pipelinen for nye hoteller på det højeste niveau længe. Hoteltransaktionsvolumen har samtidig været kraftigt stigende de senere år og beløb sig til 2,4 mia. kr. i 2016. Denne trend forventes at fortsætte, hvilket også forsvares af de store handler, der allerede har været i 2017 inklusiv salget af Generator Hostel i København, 40% af Hilton Hotel tæt ved lufthavnen samt det nylige salg Bella

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

HOTELTRANSAKTIONSVOLUMEN 2014-2017

MIA. KR. 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0

2014

2015

Sky til en estimeret pris på ca. 1,5 mia. kr. En bemærkelsesværdig udvikling på hotelinvesteringsmarkedet er den øgede interesse fra institutionelle investorer. Globalt set har institutionelle investorer længe været særdeles aktive i dette segment, hvilket dog ikke har været tilfældet i Danmark. Dog har de lovende tendenser i hotelsegmentet, samt den åbenlyse hårde konkurrence indenfor de traditionelt store segmenter, nu også udløst de institutionelle investorers appetit indenfor dette segment i Danmark. Det er i denne forbindelse essentielt at forstå, at investorerne typisk blot køber ejendommen og ikke selve den tilhørende hoteldrift. PensionDanmark og ATP købte sidste år Hotel Marriott i København, mens PFA investerede i flere hotelprojekter i København. Ifølge Michael Nielsen, Adm. Direktør hos ATP Ejendomme, har eventuelle hotelkonverteringer af eksisterende kontorejendomme også interesse: ”Kombinationen

...den stigende aktivitet indenfor de “mindre” segmenter vil fortsætte, hvor specielt hotelejendomme i større byer stadig vurderes at have en attraktiv risikoprofil.

INVESTMENT  MARKET

2016

2017 H1

af relativ høj leje og lange uopsigeligheder ser vi i dagens marked som et interessant alternativ og supplement til kontorejendomme. Det er dog afgørende, at vi kan sammensætte det rigtige produkt af operatør, hotelbrand, husleje og uopsigelighed, samt naturligvis beliggenhed. Hertil kommer de sædvanlige forudsætninger for en god ejendomsinvestering om bygningskvaliteter m.v.”.

FORVENTNINGER Hos RED | Cushman & Wakefield forventer vi, at den stigende aktivitet indenfor de ”mindre” segmenter vil fortsætte, hvor specielt hotelejendomme i større byer stadig vurderes at have en attraktiv risikoprofil. Den fortsat øgede markedstransparens hjælper samtidig investorer til at kigge mod andre segmenter end deres traditionelle coresegmenter. Prøv endelig vores nye ”Dynamiske Analyseværktøj” på vores hjemmeside, hvor det bl.a. er muligt at tracke transaktionsvolumen fordelt på forskellige segmenter og se, om de mindre segmenter vil fortsætte i sammen spor som hidtil i 2017.

OCCUPIER  MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2017 29 / 29


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Market Report 2017 Issue II  

Market Report 2017 Issue II  

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