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MARKET REPORT - RED PROPERTY ADVISERS ISSUE I 2017

RED Property Advisers facilitated the sale of CBY8 - a selection of retail stores in Carlsberg City District


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

TRANSACTION VOLUME REACHED A NEW POST-CRISIS HIGH We are settling in after a fantastic 2016 for commercial real estate, as the investment market reached a new post-crisis high with DKK 64 bn, surpassing last year’s transaction volume by approx. DKK 10 bn. In Q4 alone, we registered transactions of approx. DKK 25.6 bn, providing an extremely strong finish to last year’s volume. Especially the residential and office segment have received a lot of interest from both Danish and foreign investors. Together these two segments comprised 66% of the entire investment volume of 2016, with Heimstaden and Castellum being the two largest investors and DADES with an extremely active year coming in third. The increased interest from investors have contributed to a further yield compression across all segments. Consequently, prime yields have reached a level of 3.60% within the residential segment, 3.00% within the retail segment and 4.00% within the office segment – with a few office transactions even breaking the 4%-band.

ISSUE I 2017 2 / 27

Looking into 2017, we expect that many of the underlying trends that have driven the investment volume in 2016 will continue to do so in 2017. As a result, we expect to see a continuously high activity of sale & leaseback transactions, an increasing amount of investments in suburban cities and high activity among the foreign investors. However, due to an anticipated lack of willing sellers, prime yields are likely to be pushed even lower and activity might be tempered given the shortage of alternative opportunities available. Enjoy the report!

INVESTMENT MARKET OFFICE

2016 Q1

2016 Q4

Prime yield (Copenhagen High Streets) 3.50% Secondary yield (Copenhagen Side Streets) 4.75% Investment volume in million 254 €

3.00% 4.50% 451 €

TRANSACTION VOLUME (BN DKK) Q1 2016 - Q4 2016 - DKK 64.1 BN ~ EUR 8.5 BN 25 19

8

8 4

Nicholas Thurø Managing Partner

CHANGE

Prime yield (Copenhagen City) 4.25% 4.00% -25 bp Investment volume in million 490 € 1,113 € +623 € Vacancy (Copenhagen City) 8.30% 7.80% -50 bp RETAIL 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 CHANGE

Residential

Office

Retail

Industrial

Other

-50 bp -25 bp +197 €


CONTENT ISSUE I FOCUS

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MACROECONOMICS

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INVESTMENT MARKET OFFICE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 RESIDENTIAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 RETAIL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 TRANSACTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 OCCUPIER MARKET OFFICE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 RETAIL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 RETAIL - FOOTFALL ANALYSIS

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

APPENDIX - DANISH TRANSLATION DANSK VERSION AF FOKUS ARTIKEL

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ISSUE I 2017 3 / 27


EUROMONEY 2016 - WINNER OF 4 AWARDS

ISSUE I 2017 4 / 27

Best Advisors and Consultants Overall in Denmark

Best Advisors and Consultants for Agency & Letting in Denmark

Best Advisors and Consultants for Valuation in Denmark

Best Advisors and Consultants for Research in Denmark


ISSUE I FOCUS

ISSUE I 2017 5 / 27


DANSK VERSION PÅ SIDE 26

ISSUE I FOCUS THE MAIN TRENDS OF 2016 AND OUTLOOK FOR 2017 The Danish transaction volume reached a new post-crisis high in 2016, surpassing last year’s transaction volume by approx. DKK 10 bn. This increase was especially driven by foreign investors, investments in the Copenhagen area and second-tier cities as well as sale & leaseback transactions. With expectations of increasing demand alongside a shortage of willingly sellers, 2017 might be a year of slightly less transaction activity combined with a continued compression of yields for prime properties.

DANISH INVESTMENT VOLUME

DKK BN 70 BN

64.1 BN

60 BN

54.1 BN 41%

50 BN 36%

40 BN

32.9 BN

30 BN 20.1 BN 20%

20 BN 10 BN

80%

30%

69%

70%

2013

2014

Domestic investors

TRENDS OF 2016 During the last couple of years, the Danish transaction volume has increased significantly, and this year’s volume of approx. DKK 64.1 bn almost reached the same level as we observed in 2006 of approx. DKK 67 bn – an all-time high. In a market where the European transaction volume faced a significant decline, especially driven by lower investments in London, the Danish transaction volume within commercial real estate actually rose by a total of 18%. But which factors actually drove this increase in the Danish transaction volume?

FOREIGN INVESTORS GAINING MARKET SHARE With several uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment, including the consequences of Brexit and the impact of the new U.S. administration led by Donald Trump, more and more investors are turning to the stable cash flow and inflation hedging merits of real estate. Consequently, it is not only the Danish investors who are active on the Danish commercial real estate market. During 2016, cross border capital gained further market share, and now comprise 41% of the total transaction volume. Compared to 2015,

6 / 27

31%

FOCUS

64%

59%

2015

2016

0 BN 2012

ISSUE I 2017

35.1 BN

Foreign investors

Source: RED Property Advisers

this equals an increase of 5%-point. Looking closer at the top foreign investors of the past year, Heimstaden, Standard Life and Castellum are by far the largest investors - constituting approximately 40% of the foreign investment volume. Over the last five years, foreign investors have dominated the retail segment, and 2016 was no exception. However, during 2016, the residential and office segment also experienced increasing interest from foreign investors, and all together, these three segments accounted for approx. 85% of the entire foreign investment volume in 2016. Indeed, the foreign investors have contributed to an even further yield compression than what we experienced in 2015. This is particularly evident within the above-mentioned segments, where prime yields

MACROECONOMICS

...more investors are also likely to be asking themselves whether the time is right to take on more risk in the strongest core cities or, whether they should expand their horizons to other markets in search of higher returns.

INVESTMENT MARKET

have reached a level of 4.00% within the office segment, 3.60% within the residential segment and 3.00% within the retail segment. In the year-end a few sub4.00% transactions were regi- stered in the office segment.

AALBORG – A GROWING MARKET In line with previous years, Greater Copenhagen area was by far the location that attracted the largest part of the investment volume in 2016 – accounting for approx. 74% of the total investment volume. As a matter of fact, the Copenhagen area has more or less cemented its dominance, taking the top spot in all five of the main segments. However, the city that probably has experienced the highest volume growth during the last couple of years is Aalborg. From 2015 until 2016 the city experienced a growth of 96%, reaching a total investment volume of approx. DKK 1.5 bn. This increase was essentially driven by foreign investors, where NIAM’s residential transactions accounts for an estimated amount of approx. DKK 750 M. This was by far the largest investment in Aalborg in 2016.

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


SALE & LEASEBACK TRANSACTION VOLUME ALMOST DOUBLED IN 2016 The positive development in the Danish real estate market - with increasing prices and further yield compression across all segments - has led to even more sale & leaseback transactions in 2016. For the majority of owner-occupiers the predominate motive behind engaging in a sale & leaseback agreement is to unlock value. This gives them the ability to invest the raised proceeds into their core businesses, generating a potentially higher return on capital. From the investor’s point of view, the benefits obtained by letting to high credit worthy tenants with long lease commitments are often one of the main motivational drivers. In the past year, corporations have been executing more and more sale & leaseback transactions, and these transactions accounted for approx. DKK 7.2 bn of the total investment volume in 2016. Compared to 2015 this is almost double the amount. Especially Top-Toy, Danske Bank, and Nykredit’s sale & leaseback agreements are some of the most remarkable and largest sale & leaseback transactions of 2016. Standard Life’s acquisition of the Top-Toy-portfolio was mainly driven by their strategy to target prime commercial properties in core European markets, which includes building on their presence across the Nordic region. Similarly, the mixed-use portfolio that H.I.G. Capital & M7 Real Estate acquired from Danske Bank was driven by the motive to secure a portfolio with high quality income, where it is possible to add value through various asset management initiatives. Taking into consideration that the attractive pricing and low cap rates of quality real estate assets located in prime locations are

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

In a market where the European transaction volume faced a significant decline, especially driven by lower investments in London, the Danish transaction volume within commercial real estate actually rose by a total of 18%.

expected to continue in 2017, the terms are favorable for further sale & leaseback activity in the coming year.

OUTLOOK FOR 2017 Looking forward, global uncertainty will continue to affect investors, and with changes to society and business only accelerating, real estate will stand out as the traditional and tangible asset class compared to other more volatile asset classes. The role of real estate in portfolio diversification is underpinned by sustained low interest rates, expectations of higher inflation, and volatility in all asset classes. With expectations of rising liquidity and demand alongside a lack of willing sellers, prime yields are likely to be pushed even lower and activity might be tempered given the shortage of alternative opportunities available. Across all asset classes the premium compared to bonds is still high and leaves room for another yield shift in the market in the short term.

transactions between foreign investors, as some of the foreign value-add funds will exit and therefore most likely sell to other funds that focus on a more core profile. Finally, yet importantly, we expect to see a continuous increase in investments in suburban cities like Køge, Kolding, Roskilde etc. - cities that are currently experiencing a high construction activity. However, as mentioned previously there are several uncertainties that will affect the investment market in 2017. Especially considering the current market, which is extremely sensitive towards any increase in interest rates. In those segments, where we observe low prime yields, small increases in the interest rates will have high impact on the investment activity. As a result, while investors will remain focused on the threats around them, more investors are also likely to be asking themselves whether the time is right to take on more risk in the strongest core cities or, whether they should expand their horizons to other markets in search of higher returns.

For 2017, we expect sale & leaseback activity to continue, both in terms of regular sales processes and off market transactions. Additionally, we expect the high activity among the foreign investors to follow the same trajectory as last year, in which we also anticipate to see new entrants capture a part of the transactions volume. Likewise, we expect to see even more

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE I 2017 7 / 27


RED Property Advisers facilitated the sale of this retail condominium at Fiolstræde 3-5 on behalf of NIAM. The buyer is the norwegian hotel owner - Peter Stordalen, who owns First Hotel Skt. Petri on top of the condominium.

ISSUE I 2017 8 / 27

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


MACROECONOMICS

ISSUE I 2017 9 / 27


MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW THE OVERALL ECONOMIC UPTURN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE The Danish economy is currently experiencing an upturn. Even though some of the underlying drivers in the economy have somewhat weakened lately, the upturn is expected to continue. The outlook on our export markets has worsened slightly and the effective value of the Krone has increased, resulting in a weaker competitive position. According to the Danish National Bank, clear signs of lack of workers exist in the economy, and consequently slightly lower demand forecast is considered healthy at this point in the economy’s cycle. During the fourth quarter of 2016, Statistics Denmark made a significant backward revision to its GDP growth figures, which shows that the Danish Economy in recent years has grown much more than earlier anticipated (see graph to the right).

MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES KEY VARIABLE

A YEAR AGO

MOST RECENT

GDP Growth Rate y/y

1.2%

1.2%

Inflation Rate y/y

0.5%

0.1%

Unemployment Rate - Denmark

6.3%

6.5%

Unemployment Rate - Copenhagen Region

7.1%

6.5%

10 year Government Bond

-0.71%

-0.34%

Short Term Mortgage Rate - 1 and 2 year bonds

-0.10%

-0.40%

2.95%

2.26%

Long Term Mortgage Rate - 30 year bonds

Source: Statistics Denmark, Association of Danish Mortgage Banks and The Danish National Bank

REVISED GDP - GROWTH IN REAL TERMS 2.5% 2.0%

The revision was met with satisfaction among economists, as many, at least retrospectively, had found it difficult to explain the low GDP-growth numbers while at the same time observing evidence in other key figures showing an improving Danish economy. The revision also means that Denmark’s GDP already in 2014 topped the previous top from before the financial crisis. Before the revision, this was not expected to happen until 2017, which highlights the significance of the revision. The Danish National Bank estimates GDP growth in 2016 to be 1.0%, due to the slightly lower demand in the underlying components of the economy. GDP-growth is expected to grow 1.4% and 1.5% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Especially private consumption is expected to drive GDP in the near future, while export is also expected to contribute positively.

ISSUE I 2017 10 / 27

FOCUS

TREND

1.9%

1.5%

1.7%

1.6%

1.3%

1.0%

0.9%

0.5% 0.2% 0.0% -0.5%

2010

2011

2012

Outdated GDP - real growth %

2013

2014

Revised GDP - real growth %

The annual growth rate in the private real estate market has also slowed marginally, but is still considered to be high, and according to the Danish National Bank the price level of condominiums in Copenhagen is currently relatively high compared to income and interest levels. The bank also estimates that the real estate market in Copenhagen is more vulnerable to interest rate increases than the rest of the country.

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

2015


INVESTMENT MARKET

ISSUE I 2017 11 / 27


INVESTMENT MARKET - OFFICE THE INVESTMENT ACTIVITY IN Q4 WAS IMMENSE Investment activity in the office segment in Q4 was immense, reaching approx. DKK 7.7 bn in transaction volume and dominated by Danish investors with a share of 67%. Real estate companies were the most active buyers in Q4 constituting 54% of the transaction volume with their focus being on prime office properties. However, the high demand for prime office properties, coupled with the low supply, have also led some investors to seek towards more peripheral areas around Copenhagen. In Q4, the office investment activity was propped by several investors’ acquisition of Tryg’s properties located in CBD and Ballerup, which comprised of a 90,000 sqm office-portfolio with an estimated price of approx. DKK 1.8 bn. The second most notable office transaction in Q4 was DADES’ acquisition of Nykredit’s headquarter located at Kalvebod Brygge with a total size of 42,400 sqm and a price of DKK 1.5 bn. The location is considered an absolute prime office location. In 2016, the total transaction volume in the office segment reached approx. DKK 19.3 bn, which is the highest volume recorded since 2006. Danish investors were the most active investors in 2016 with 56% of the office investment volume with real estate companies being most active. This is the closest we have seen to a 50/50 allocation of Danish and foreign investors in this segment. Over the last quarter, we have observed transactions at prime locations with a yield of 4.00%, and a few office transactions have even broken the 4%-band. This will have a spillover effect on the areas surrounding Copenhagen as we expect a downward pressure in these areas.

ISSUE I 2017 12 / 27

FOCUS

INVESTOR BREAKDOWN – Q1-Q4 2016

Others

Institutional Investors

15%

11%

Public institutions 7%

19.3

Property Funds 25%

BN DKK

Real Estate Companies 42%

DANISH INVESTORS - 56 %

0%

20%

FOREIGN INVESTORS - 44 %

40%

60%

80%

100%

Source: RED Property Advisers

PRIME YIELDS SUBAREA

Q1 2015

Q1 2016

Q1 2017

Copenhagen City (CBD)

5.00%

4.25%

4.00%

Copenhagen E & W

5.75%

5.50%

5.25%

Frederiksberg

5.75%

5.50%

5.25%

Harbour areas

5.00%

4.25%

4.00%

South Harbour

6.00%

6.00%

5.50%

Ørestad

5.75%

5.50%

5.50%

Copenhagen N & NW

6.50%

6.50%

6.25%

South and West of Copenhagen

7.25%

7.25%

7.00%

North of Copenhagen

5.25%

5.25%

5.00%

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


INVESTMENT MARKET - RESIDENTIAL SEGMENT WITH THE HIGHEST INVESTMENT VOLUME THROUGHOUT THE YEAR Residential continues to be the main investor segment with high activity throughout the year and a strong finish in Q4. All together, the residential volume reached a total of DKK 24.8 bn for the year, in which the Q4 volume amounted to DKK 7.8 bn. Real estate companies were the most active during Q4 constituting approx. 45% of the investment volume. Especially the Swedish real estate companies, Heimstaden and Akelius, were highly active with Heimstaden acquiring two residential portfolios in Copenhagen for an estimated total price of DKK 800 M and Akelius buying the residential complex Domus Vista in Frederiksberg for DKK 640 M. PKA and Pensam co-held the property prior to the transaction. Similar to Q4, real estate companies were the most active in the year as a whole closely followed by institutional investors and property funds. Copenhagen (including Greater Copenhagen) continues to be the main attention area for the residential investors with 76% of the past year’s transaction volume located here. The same pattern was observed in 2015 with Copenhagen’s volume constituting 75% of the total residential investment volume. However, going forward we expect to see more activity outside the Copenhagen area as a result of foreign investors, who currently constitute a significant share of the volume, getting more comfortable with investing in other areas than Copenhagen.

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTOR BREAKDOWN – Q1-Q4 2016 Others 6% Institutional Investors 26% Real Estate Companies 34%

24.8 BN DKK

Property Funds 26%

Private Investors 8% DANISH INVESTORS - 59 %

0%

20%

FOREIGN INVESTORS - 41 %

40%

60%

80%

100%

Source: RED Property Advisers

PRIME YIELDS

PRIME MARKET RENT DKK/SQM SUBAREA

Q1 2017

SUBAREA

Q1 2017

Copenhagen City

2,000 - 2,200

Copenhagen Area - rent control

1.50 - 3.00%

Copenhagen E, W & N

1,700 - 1,900

Copenhagen Suburb - rent control

3.00 - 4.00%

Frederiksberg

2,000 - 2,200

Copenhagen Area - market rent

3.60%

North Harbour

2,000 - 2,200

Copenhagen Suburb - market rent

4.50%

South Harbour

1,600 - 1,800

Copenhagen S

1,500 - 1,700

North of Copenhagen

1,700 - 1,900

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE I 2017 13 / 27


INVESTMENT MARKET - RETAIL Q4 CONSTITUTED ALMOST HALF OF THE RETAIL TRANSACTION VOLUME IN 2016 In total, DKK 3.4 bn was invested into the Danish retail sector in Q4, constituting almost half of the total retail transaction volume of 2016 and marking the most active quarter since Q4 2014. Thus, we experienced a strong finish to the year that followed the same trajectory as 2015 with a strong appetite for high street assets from especially foreign investors. In Q4, as well as for the year as a whole, foreign investors constituted approx. 64% of the transaction volume in this segment. Once again, investments in high street assets boosted the volume. Among others, AEW Europe acquired Østergade 15, Axa acquired Frederiksberggade 1 and Standard Life bought Frederiksberggade 16 for DKK 275 M. However, Q4 activity was widespread and not limited to the Copenhagen high streets. The Danish real estate company, PDV Ejendomme, sold off a selection of local shopping centres in Greater Copenhagen, while Standard Life acquired a portfolio of Top-Toy’s properties in a sale & leaseback agreement. In addition, we have also seen investment activity in the continuously developing area, Carlsberg Byen, where Aberdeen property fund acquired a selection of retail stores for DKK 383 M. Prime yield level in Copenhagen is at an all-time low at 3.00%. This all-time low level is expected to remain stable in the short term, while we expect to see a steady investment activity.

INVESTOR BREAKDOWN – Q1-Q4 2016 Others Institutional Investors 1%

5%

Private Investors

Real Estate Companies

17%

10%

7.5 BN DKK

Property Funds 67%

DANISH INVESTORS - 36 DANISH INVESTORS - 40 %%

0%

20%

FOREIGN INVESTORS - 64 %

40%

60%

100%

80%

Source: RED Property Advisers

PRIME YIELDS STREET/SUBMARKET

Q1 2015

Q1 2016

Q1 2017

Strøget (incl. Vimmelskaftet)

4.00%

3.50%

3.00%

Strøget area

5.00%

4.75%

4.50%

Østerbrogade

5.50%

5.50%

5.25%

Nørrebrogade

6.00%

5.75%

5.50%

Købmagergade

4.00%

3.50%

3.00%

Lyngby

5.75%

5.50%

5.00%

5.00%

4.75%

4.25%

SHOPPING CENTRES Copenhagen

ISSUE I 2017 14 / 27

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


TRANSACTIONS

ISSUE I 2017 15 / 27


TRANSACTIONS OFFICE STREET STREETNAME NAME

LOCATION LOCATION

DATE DATE

SIZE SIZE(SQM) (SQM)

PRICE PRICE VENDOR VENDORTYPE TYPE (M (MDKK) DKK)

Tryg Portfolio Hedeager 1-5 & Kystvejen 29

Copenhagen Århus

Q4 2016/Q2

90,053 Est. 1,800 Institutional investor Tryg Forsikring 23,600 555.0 Real Estate Company C.W. Obel

Real estate companies Jeudan & property fund & property fund Investor PensionDanmark Institutional

Kalvebod HolmensBrygge Kanal 1-3 2 & Under Krystallen 1 Albanigade 30 Danske Bank Portfolio Rytterkasernen 11 Unipension Portfolio Dag Hammarskjolds Allé 28 Office Portfolio in Valby Overgaden Oven Vandet 60A Strandboulevarden (Søkvæsthuset) 130

CPH City Copenhagen

2016/Q1 Q4

49,065 42,439

Fund RealProperty estate company

Odense Denmark Odense Copenhagen CPH E Copenhagen CPH City Copenhagen

2016/Q1 Q4 2016/Q1 Q4 2015/Q4 Q4 2015/Q4 Q4

4,300 103,016 8,385 101,012 1,596 23,787 8,826 7,067

Åboulevarden 11 Store Kongensgade 22

CPHAarhus City

Q4 2015/Q4

5,579 1,244

151 investor investor 48.5 Private Real Estate CompanyPrivate JL Ejendom

Finsensvej 86 Store Kongensgade 62 Stationsvej 10

Copenhagen CPH City Sønderborg

Q4 2015/Q4 Q4

5,638 1,772 6,135

Stormgade 10Boulevard 9-11 H.C. Andersens Strømmen 6 Rahbeks Allé 21

CPH City Copenhagen Nørresundby Copenhagen

2015/Q4 Q4 2015/Q4 Q4

2,374 3,346 11,404 3,383

121 Property fund CapMan 52.2 Private Investor Investor 92 Property fund SFPrivate Management 72.0 Public Institution Freja Ejendomme 85 Real estate company Jyske bank 73.5 User RTX A/S Asset Marylebone 72 Property fund Management

Borgervænget 3-7

Copenhagen

Q3

16,090

La Cours Vej 7

Copenhagen

Q3

5,630

1,400.0 User 1,500 User 52.3 Est. 860 61.0 690 63.0 440 161.0 178

VENDOR VENDORNAME NAME

BUYER TYPE BUYER TYPE

Danske Bank Nykredit

Institutional Investor Danica Pension Private Investor User Danske Bank Property fund Institutional Investor Danica Pension Private Investor Institutional investor Unipension Real estate company Private Investor Fritz Henrik Schur Public Institution Real estate company Real estate company Property fund Public Institution The Danish Armed Forces Private Investor User Bonnier Publications A/S Real estate company

BUYER NAME BUYER NAME

Standard Life Investments DADES Karsten Bill Rasmussen M7 Real Estate & H.I.G. Karsten Bill Rasmussen Wihlborgs A/S The Turkish Embassy Property fund Lennart Lajboschitz C.W. Obel Ejendomme

Institutional investor Other Fund

PensionDanmark Erik & Susanna Olesens AlmenFond fond Other KFIvelgørende Erhvervsdrivende Real Estate CompanyPensionDanmark Jeudan Institutional investor Fund RealProperty estate company Private Investor Real estate company

Kapitalforvaltning M. Artha Goldschmidt Holding K/S Strømmen M. Goldschmidt Holding

209 Developer

Property Partners

Property fund

NIAM

107 User

Ase

Institutional investor

JØP

RETAIL STREET NAME

LOCATION

DATE

High street Portfolio

Copenhagen

SIZE (SQM)

PRICE VENDOR TYPE (M DKK)

VENDOR NAME

BUYER TYPE

BUYER NAME

885 Property fund

Avignon Capital

Property fund

Hines

383 Developer

Carlsberg Byen Ejendomme Property fund

Aberdeen Property Investors Standard Life

Q1-2017

11,728

Carlsberg Byen, Byggefelt 8 Copenhagen

Q4

7,500

Top-Toy Portfolio

Jutland & Copenhagen

Q4

24,760

Top-Toy

Property fund

Frederiksberggade 1

Copenhagen

Q4

3,185

320 Property fund

Standard Life

Institutional investor Axa

Fiolstræde 3-5

Copenhagen

Q4

3,542

174 Property fund

NIAM

Private investor

Strawberry Properties

Østergade 15

Copenhagen

Q4

759

157 Private investor

Private Investor

Property fund

AEW Europe

Humlebækcentret

Humlebæk

Q4

9,057

121 Real estate company

PDV Ejendomme

Real estate company TT Partners

Skovlundecentret

Skovlunde

Q4

12,580

108 Real estate company

PDV Ejendomme

Private investor

Diget 18-76

Glostrup

Q4

6,507

73 Real estate company

PDV Ejendomme

Real estate company TT Partners

Østergade 15, st.

Copenhagen

Q4

350

60 Private investor

Private Investor

Private investor

Vesterbrogade 2D, st.

Copenhagen

Q4

876

43 User

McDonalds

Institutional investor Ejendomsselskabet Norden

Skt. Knuds Torv 3, st.

Aarhus

Q4

1,742

40 Real estate company

Essex

Private investor

Private investor

Frederiksberggade 16

Copenhagen

Q3

4,364

275 Institutional investor

Unipension

Property fund

Standard Life

Est. 346 User

Private Investor

Private investor

LAND STREET NAME

PURPOSE

LOCATION

DATE

Ørestad Syd Portfolio

Residential

Copenhagen

Q4

152,600

Est. 5,200

Frederiksberggade 34-38

Residential

Copenhagen

Q4

N/A

N/A

Hummeltoftevej 14

Residential

Virum

Q4

16,900

5,266

Facebook Datacenter

Industrial

Odense

Q4

184,000

370

ISSUE I 2017 16 / 27

FOCUS

SIZE (SQM. OF PRICE PER SQM. OF BUILDING RIGHT) BUILDING RIGHT

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT MARKET

PRICE VENDOR NAME (M DKK) Est. 794 By & Havn 260

Københavns Investeringsejendomme A/S

BUYER NAME Real estate company's, developer's & institutional investors Standard Life

89 Statens Ejendomssalg A/S

PensionDanmark

68 Odense Kommune

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OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


RED Property Advisers assisted Hines in the acquisition of five high street properties.

HOTEL HOTEL NAME

LOCATION

DATE

PRICE PER ROOM (DKK)

PRICE (M DKK)

Kalvebod Brygge 5 - Hotel Marriot

Copenhagen

Bernstorffsgade 36 - Nordic Choice Hotel

Copenhagen

VENDOR NAME

BUYER NAME

Q4

Est. 2,460,000

Est. 1,000

Solstra

ATP & PensionDanmark

Q4

Est. 1,240,000

Est. 550

Danica

Strawberry Properties

RESIDENTIAL STREET STREETNAME NAME

LOCATION LOCATION

DATE DATE

Nørre Søgade 29 Hedeager 1-5 & Kystvejen 29 Residential Portfolio Holmens Kanal 2 Nordens Plads 4 Albanigade 30 Strandlodsvej 15 Rytterkasernen 11 Residential Portfolio Dag Hammarskjolds Allé 28 Ungbo Portfolio Overgaden Oven Vandet 60A Residential Portfolio (Søkvæsthuset) Overgaden oven vandet/Herman Store Kongensgade 22 Triers plads

Copenhagen Århus Copenhagen CPH City Copenhagen Odense Copenhagen Odense Copenhagen CPH E Copenhagen CPH City Copenhagen

Q1-2017 2016/Q2 Q4 2016/Q1 Q4 2016/Q1 Q4 2016/Q1 Q4 2015/Q4 Q4 2015/Q4 Q4

5,521 23,600 32,790 49,065 36,853 4,300 19,523 8,385 20,078 1,596 23,700 8,826 9,500

Copenhagen CPH City

Q4 2015/Q4

15,151 1,244

Irma-byen Store Kongensgade 62 Peder Lykkes Vej 57C Stormgade 10 Nørre Farimagsgade 43-49 Strømmen 6 Åbrinken 2

Rødovre CPH City Copenhagen CPH City Copenhagen Nørresundby Odense

Q4 2015/Q4 Q4 2015/Q4 Q4 2015/Q4 Q4

8,120 1,772 7,221 2,374 5,869 11,404 4,664

Gefionsbakken 5A

Espergærde

Q4

4,272

78 Real estate company

North Property Asset Management

Private investor

Private Investor

Nørrebrogade 122

Copenhagen

Q4

3,439

74 Real estate company

North Property Asset Management

Private investor

Private Investor

Østeråparken

SIZE SIZE(SQM) (SQM)

PRICE PRICE VENDOR VENDORTYPE TYPE (M (MDKK) DKK) 162 555.0 Est. 900 1,400.0 640 52.3 632 61.0 Est. 455 63.0 450 161.0 329

VENDOR VENDORNAME NAME

BUYER NAME BUYER NAME

Private investor Private Investor Institutional investor Institutional Investment Partner Real Estate Company C.W. Obel Institutional Investor PensionDanmark Property fund Thylander Institutional investor JØP & JIP User Danske Bank Property Fund Standard Life Investments Institutional investor PKA & Pensam Real estate company Akelius Residential Property AB Institutional Investor Danica Pension Private Investor Karsten Bill Rasmussen Property fund Capman Developer Casa Institutional Investor Danica Pension Private Investor Karsten Bill Rasmussen Institutional investor LB Forsikring Real estate company Heimstaden Private Investor Fritz Henrik Schur Public Institution The Turkish Embassy Private investor Ungbo Institutional investor Sampension Public Institution The Danish Armed Forces Private Investor Lennart Lajboschitz Property fund NREP Real estate company Heimstaden

322 fund CompanyCapMan 48.5 Property Real Estate JL Ejendom 232 52.2 113 72.0 100 73.5 91

BUYER TYPE BUYER TYPE

Developer Private Investor Private investor Public Institution User User Private investor

ELF Development Private Investor Private Investor Freja Ejendomme Business Danmark RTX A/S Private investor

RealOther estate company Fund

Akelius PropertyAlmenAB Erik &Residential Susanna Olesens velgørende Fond Property fund Bouwfond Investment Management Real Estate Company Jeudan Private investor A/B Pederlykkesgaard Property Fund Artha Kapitalforvaltning Developer Gefion Group Private Investor K/S Strømmen Private investor Private Investor

Aalborg

Q3

15,000

300 Public institution

DSB

Institutional investor

Lærernes Pension

Copenhagen

Q3

3,574

68 Private investor

Private Investor

Developer

Vision Properties

Australiensvej 6

Copenhagen

Q3

2,572

52 Private investor

Private investor

Property fund

Core Bolig

Sillebroen

Frederikssund

Q3

2,970

49 Developer

HME Bolig

Property fund

Core Bolig

Ærøvej 1 m.fl.

Copenhagen

Q3

2,150

45 Private investor

Private Investor

Property fund

Core Bolig

Rosenlunds Allé 11

Copenhagen

Q3

1,488

43 Private investor

Private investor

Property fund

Core Bolig

Nørrebrogade 34

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE I 2017 17 / 27


11,657 sqm office space in a exclusive property are currently in the market for letting at Osvald Helmuths Vej 4

ISSUE I 2017 18 / 27

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


OCCUPIER MARKET

ISSUE I 2017 19 / 27


OCCUPIER MARKET - OFFICE HIGH ACTIVITY IN THE HARBOUR AREAS Individual offices are no longer a requirement for an increasing number of companies. Instead open plan office properties with common facilities are becoming more popular as the concept offers flexible leases in attractive surroundings. Property owners need to be aware of this tendency when refurbishing and re-letting their properties as we see this as a continued trend in 2017. Several noteworthy leases took place during the end of 2016. In Q3, the Danish accounting firm Beierholm let MT Højgaard’s former office domicile in Søborg of 12,000 sqm. The property is owned by PFA Ejendomme. There was also activity in the harbour areas; At Frederikskaj 4 – the former office domicile of Mercedes Benz and Nykredit in the south harbor, the union ASE let the property’s total area of 7,360 sqm.

SIGNIFICANT LEASES STREET NAME

LOCATION

DATE

SIZE (SQM) LANDLORD

TENANT

Portland Towers

Harbour Area

2017/Q1

1,628 ATP Ejendomme

Den Tyske Ambassade

Frederikskaj 4

CPH SW

2016/Q4

7,360 DADES

ASE Fagforening

Hovedvejen 2

CPH Area

2016/Q4

4,585 Nordea Ejendomme

Dansikring

Ørestads Boulevard 114

CPH S

2016/Q4

3,300 Solstra Capital Partners

Novo Nordisk

Helgeshøj Allé 34

CPH W

2016/Q4

3,245 Nordea Ejendomme

ALD

Vandtårnsvej 62

CPH Area

2016/Q4

900 BOKA

Merck

Rådhuspladsen 59

CPH City

2016/Q4

714 Foreningen Soc. Boligbyggeri

Fahmy, Lindegaard & Sjö ApS

Amager Strandvej 390

CPH S

2016/Q4

644 PFA Ejendomme

ST. Aerospace Solutions A/S

Vesterbrogade 1

CPH City

2016/Q4

588 Dansk Industri

WiseGroup

Knud Højgaards Vej 9

CPH NW

2016/Q3

Slet Parkvej 1-7

Aarhus

2016/Q3

7,500 AP Pension

Stofa

Hejrevej 30

CPH NW

2016/Q3

1,464 Nordicom Ejendom A/S

N/A

Kanonbådsvej 12A

CPH City

2016/Q3

1,131 Commercial Real Estate Denmark

Glyn Peter Machin

Tuborg Havnevej 15

CPH Area

2016/Q3

1,099 PKA

Formuepleje A/S

Strandgade 4

CPH City

2016/Q3

915 C.W. Obel Ejendomme A/S

Weoffice

Humletorvet 25

CPH W

2016/Q3

544 Carlsberg Byen

Mikkeller

Amaliegade 12

CPH City

2016/Q3

526 Amaliegade 12 Aps

Storage4You

12,000 PFA Ejendomme

Beierholm

The unemployment rate in the Copenhagen Area has slightly decreased over the course of 2016, and is expected to decrease even further in 2017. The decreased unemployment rate together with the decreased vacancy rate in the fourth quarter of 2016 will likely lead to an increasing demand for office space.

VACANCY RATES AND UNEMPLOYMENT Office vacancy rates compared to unemployment in Copenhagen

PRIME RENT DKK/SQM Q1 2017

10.00%

Copenhagen City (CBD)

1,750

8.00%

Copenhagen E & W

1,250

Frederiksberg

1,300

Harbour areas

1,850

South Harbour

1,300

Ørestad

1,350

Copenhagen N & NW

1,200

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FOCUS

Vacancy rate Copenhagen City

Vacancy rate Copenhagen Area

Unemployment Copenhagen Area

Source: Statistics Denmark & Oline.dk

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

Q3 2016

Q1 2016

Q3 2015

Q1 2015

Q3 2014

Q1 2014

Q3 2013

Q1 2013

Q3 2012

Q1 2012

950

Q3 2011

0.00%

1,300

*Base rents ex. service charges

ISSUE I 2017

2.00%

Q1 2011

North of Copenhagen

4.00%

Q3 2010

South and west of Copenhagen

6.00%

Q1 2010

SUBAREA

12.00%


OCCUPIER MARKET - RETAIL THE TABLE HAVE TURNED FOR THE AREA AROUND CITY HALL SQUARE From Kgs. Nytorv pinpointing the start of Strøget and walking towards City Hall Square encasing the southern part of the street one can experience quite a rapid change in regards to the external settings. An ordinary occupier’s usual center of attention is the square, Amagertorv, which is the junction of Købmagergade and Strøget, housing luxury retailers such as Hermès, Louis Vuitton and Prada. The high monetary value of Amagertorv has had a positive spil over effect on the adjacent streets, which has led to noticeable development in a close radius hereby. The last part of Strøget from Amagertorv to City Hall Square has not seen much of the mentioned effect, which in recent history has led the area to stand alone as relatively disharmonic. The area has suffered from consistent developments in City Hall Square for several decades, but with a forthcoming completion of the site the tables seem to have turned. Late 2016, the British retail-chain, JD Sport, opened up the doors to their third store in Denmark located in this more challenged area, which consequently can lead to the final turnaround of Strøget. In the year of 2017, RED Property Advisers will follow up on the increasing trend and continue the development of the area.

SIGNIFICANT LEASES STREET NAME

LOCATION

DATE

SIZE (SQM)

NEW TENANT

Sværtegade 5

CPH City

2016/Q4

45

Kronprinsensgade 16

CPH City

2016/Q4

N/A

Ca’Shot

Gammel Mønt 5

CPH City

2016/Q4

196

Zadig & Voltaire

Sankt Annæ Plads 13

CPH City

2016/Q4

N/A

Joe & the Juice

St. Strandstræde 8-14

CPH City

2016/Q4

218

Caravane

Højbro Plads 4

CPH City

2016/Q3

865

Hèrmes

Vesterbrogade 4C

CPH City

2016/Q3

296

Peter Beier

Vesterbrogade 4B

CPH City

2016/Q3

230

Klarlund

Købmagergade 37

CPH City

2016/Q3

726

Sephora

St. Strandstræde 8-14

CPH City

2016/Q2

159

Royal Republiq

St. Strandstræde 8-14

CPH City

2016/Q2

95

Aiayu

St. Strandstræde 8-14

CPH City

2016/Q2

57

Aesop

Hvisk

PRIME RENT DKK/SQM - ZONE A SUBAREA

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

CHANGE

Strøget (incl. Vimmelskaftet)

23,500

23,500

0.00%

Strøget area - side streets

10,000

10,000

0.00%

4,000

4,000

0.00%

Østerbrogade Nørrebrogade

2,000

2,000

0.00%

Købmagergade

22,000

22,000

0.00%

VACANCY RATES AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Retail vacancy rates compared to consumer confidence in Copenhagen 5.00%

15

4.50% 4.00%

10

3.50% 5

3.00% 2.50%

0

2.00% 1.50%

-5

1.00% 0.50%

-10

Vacancy rate Copenhagen City

Q3 2016

Q1 2016

Q3 2015

Q1 2015

Q3 2014

Q1 2014

Q3 2013

Q1 2013

Q3 2012

Q1 2012

Q3 2011

Q1 2011

Q3 2010

Q1 2010

0.00%

Vacancy rate Copenhagen area

Source: Statistics Denmark & Oline.dk

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE I 2017 21 / 27


FOOTFALL ANALYSIS ØSTERGADE EXPERIENCED THE LARGEST INCREASE IN FOOTFALL COUNTS Overall, Copenhagen high streets experienced a marginal increase in terms of footfall counts in Q4 2016 compared to Q4 in 2015. Especially noticeable is Østergade, where the number of counts have increased by roughly 500 counts. The area around Amagertorv is still the busiest crossing point in Copenhagen, even though it has experienced a slight drop compared to last year.

e

gad

CHRISTMAS SHOPPING In terms of the Christmas shopping effect, the month of December have experienced an even further increase in footfall compared to the previous years. Last year, the footfall count for December on average reached approx. 6,100 per hour, which equals an increase of 12% compared to the same period in 2015. This is the highest footfall count on average that we have observed for the month of December since we started registering the footfall in the Copenhagen high streets.

Kultorvet

ager Købm

BLACK FRIDAY The concept of Black Friday has really gotten a hold of the Danish shoppers as well as the retailers. On Black Friday 2016, we experienced an even higher footfall around the Copenhagen high streets than last year, supporting the fact that the day topped all records of shopping transaction volume in Denmark – with a turnover of DKK 2 bn. Furthermore, we observed 54% more people on Strøget and 63% more on Købmagergade on Black Friday compared to an average Friday in 2016.

4.

5,400

COUNTING METHODOLOGY RED carries out the counts on Fridays at 4 pm with the purpose of registrering a development and conclude a level of footfall at different locations on Strøget and Købmagergade. The footfall is counted manually from both directions.

Vimme

e

ad

Nyg

Gammeltorv 3.

5,400 e

ad

F

ISSUE I 2017 22 / 27

FOCUS

sb

rik

e red

MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT  MARKET Rådhuspladsen

g erg

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


FOOTFALL COUNTS IN Q4 2015 AND Q4 2016

THE MAP The map shows the counting points and the average footfall per hour the last 12 months.

5.

5,400

10.

NO.

STREET NAME

Q4 2015

Q4 2016

CHANGE

1 2

Østergade

4,379

4,861

482

Amagertorv/Østergade

6,833

6,794

-39

3

Frederiksberggade

5,340

5,695

355

4

Frederiksborggade/Købmagergade

5,659

5,930

271

5

Rundetårn

5,907

5,818

-89

6

Købmagergade/Silkegade

6,356

6,013

-343

7

Vimmelskaftet/Amagertorv

7,024

6,918

-106

8

Købmagergade/Valkendorfsgade

-

5,072

-

9

Købmagergade/Løvstræde

-

6,330

-

10

Pilestræde/Kronprinsensgade

-

2,612

-

2,400

9.

5,600 8.

Kgs. Nytorv

4,300

ade

1. sterg Ø

3,600 6.

5,400 Købm ager

gade

e

gad

Øster 2.

ertorv

Amag

7.

6,500

6,100

elskaftet

BLACK FRIDAY FOOTFALL 10,000

6,000

8,545

8,381

8,000 5,434

5,247

4,000 2,000 0

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

Strøget

Købmagergade

Average Friday in 2016

Black Friday

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE I 2017 23 / 27


THE LETTING OF ST. STRANDSTRÆDE RED Property Advisers has been adviser in the letting process of the newly refurbished retail stores at St. Strandstræde 8-14 on behalf of PFA Ejendomme og Thylander Gruppen. This spring new retail concepts will open at St. Strandstræde and it has been imperative to create a new marketplace with five new stores complimenting each other, resulting in a highly appreciated contribution to the well-known vibrant atmosphere in the street. RED has successfully finalized lease agreements with retail concepts, that will attract even more people to St. Strandstræde; the new concepts consist of the Australian skincare concept AESOP, ROYAL REPUBLIQ with high quality Danish leather goods, the Danish sustainable fashion and home wear brand AIAYU and the French interior concept CARAVANE. Negotiations on the fifth lease are still ongoing. As part of the letting strategy, RED Property Advisers has attached importance to give the customers a distinctive shopping experience.

ISSUE I 2017 24 / 27

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


APPENDIX - DANISH TRANSLATION

ISSUE I 2017 25 / 27


ENGLISH VERSION AT PAGE 6

UDGIVELSE I FOKUS HOVEDTENDENSER FRA 2016 OG FORVENTNINGER TIL 2017 Den danske transaktionsvolumen for 2016 endte på det højeste niveau siden finanskrisen, og aktiviteten overgik 2015 med ca. 10 mia. Stigningen var især drevet af udenlandske investorer, investeringer i Københavnsområdet, investeringer i de større provinsbyer samt sale & leaseback transaktioner. Med forventning om øget efterspørgsel kombineret med en mangel på villige sælgere kan 2017 blive et år, hvor vi oplever en lavere transaktionsvolumen og et fortsat nedadgående pres på investorenes afkastkrav for prime ejendomme.

DANSKE INVESTERINGS VOLUMEN

DKK mia 70 mia

64.1 mia

60 mia

54.1 mia 41%

50 mia 36%

40 mia

32.9 mia

30 mia 20.1 mia 20%

20 mia 10 mia

80%

31%

70%

2013

2014

I løbet af de senere år er den danske transaktionsvolumen vokset signifikant, og dette års volumen på ca. 64,1 mia. nåede næsten samme niveau, som vi observerede i 2006 på ca. 67 mia. – det højeste niveau nogensinde. I et år, hvor den europæiske transaktionsvolumen rent faktisk oplevede et markant fald, især drevet af lavere investeringsaktivitet i London, steg den danske transaktionsvolumen hele 18%. Men hvilke faktorer har rent faktisk drevet denne markante stigning?

UDENLANDSKE INVESTORER ØGER DERES MARKEDSANDEL Som følge af adskillige usikkerheder omkring de makroøkonomiske forhold, herunder konsekvenserne af Brexit og præsidentskiftet i USA med indsættelsen af Donald Trump, vender flere og flere investorer sig mod de mere stabile og inflationssikrede cash flows forbundet med ejendomsinvesteringer. Således er det ikke blot er de danske investorer, der er aktive på det danske marked. I løbet af 2016 har de udenlandske investorer taget en endnu større markedsandel og udgør nu 41% af den totale transaktionsvolumen.

26 / 27

64%

59%

2015

2016

0 mia 2012

Udenlandske

Kilde: RED Property Advisers

TRENDS 2016

FOCUS

30%

69%

Danske

ISSUE I 2017

35.1 mia

Dette svarer til en stigning på 5%-point sammenlignet med 2015. Ses der nærmere på de største udenlandske investorer i 2016, så var Heimstaden, Standard Life og Castellum i særklasse de mest aktive investorer og udgjorde samlet ca. 40% af den udenlandske transaktionsvolumen. De seneste fem år har de udenlandske investorer især domineret retail-segmentet, og 2016 var ingen undtagelse. Dog var 2016 også et år, hvor de udenlandske investorer viste en øget interesse for bolig- og kontorsegmentet, og tilsammen ud- gjorde disse to segmenter sammen med retail-segmentet ca. 85% af udenlandske investorers samlede investeringsaktivitet i 2016. Derudover har de udenlandske investorer i særdeleshed medvirket til et yderligere pres på afkastkravet set i forhold til

MACROECONOMICS

... vil flere og flere investorer stille spørgsmålstegn ved, om 2017 mon er det rette tidspunkt at øge deres risikoeksponering i de større byer, eller om de skal udvide deres horisont mod andre markeder i håb om et højere afkast.

INVESTMENT  MARKET

2015. Dette gælder især for ovennævnte segmenter, hvor prime afkastkravene har nået niveauet 4,00% inden for kontor-segmentet, 3,60% inden for boligsegmentet og 3,00% inden for retailsegmentet. I slutningen af året blev der registreret enkelte transaktioner inden for kontorsegmentet til lige under 4% i afkast. AALBORG – ET MARKED I VÆKST I lighed med tidligere år foregår langt størstedelen af aktiviteten i Københavnsområdet, der i 2016 tegnede sig for ca. 74% af den total investeringsvolumen. Københavns dominans cementeres yderligere af, at byen tager topplaceringen i samtlige af de fem største segmenter. Imidlertid er Aalborg rent faktisk den by, der har oplevet den største vækst sidste år. Fra 2015 til 2016 har byen haft en vækst på hele 96%, og den samlede transaktionsvolumen i 2016 nåede 1,5 mia. kr. Stigningen var primært drevet af udenlandske investorer, hvor bl.a. NIAM’s køb af en større boligportefølje udgjorde ca. 670 mio. kr. Dette var klart den største ejendomsinvestering i Aalborg i 2016.

OCCUPIER  MARKET

APPENDIX


SALE & LEASEBACK TRANSAKTIONSVOLUMEN BLEV FORDOBLET I 2016 Den positive udvikling på det danske erhvervsejendomsmarked – karakteriseret ved stigende priser og yderligere pres på afkastkravet på tværs af alle segmenter – førte til endnu flere sale & leaseback transaktioner i 2016. For de fleste brugere er hovedmotivet ved at gennemføre en sale & leaseback aftale, at man får frigjort kapital. Dette giver brugerne mulighed for at investere den frigjorte kapital i deres kerneaktiviteter, hvor der potentielt kan genereres en højere forrentning. Investoren kan derimod opnå en lang lejekontrakt med en som oftest bonitær lejer. I løbet af 2016 har virksomheder gennemført flere og flere sale & leaseback transaktioner, og disse transaktioner udgjorde i alt 7,2 mia. kr. Dette er næsten en fordobling i forhold til 2015. Især Top-Toy, Danske Bank og Nykredit’s sale & leaseback aftaler er nogle af de mest nævneværdige og største sale & leaseback transaktioner i 2016. Standard Life’s køb af Top-Toy porteføljen var hovedsageligt drevet af deres strategi om at erhverve prime erhvervsejendomme i centrale europæiske markeder, hvilket inkluderer en øget tilstedeværelse på de nordiske markeder. Ligeledes var H.I.G. Capital og M7 Real Estate’s erhvervelse af Danske Bank porteføljen drevet af motivet om at anskaffe sig en portefølje med stor lejesikkerhed med mulighed for værdiskabelse igennem forskellige optimeringstiltag. I betragtning af, det lave renteniveau forventes at forsætte i 2017, er betingelserne favorable for flere sale & leaseback transaktioner i det kommende år.

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

I et år hvor den europæiske transaktionsvolumen rent faktisk oplevede et markant fald, især drevet af lavere investeringsaktivitet i London, steg den danske transaktionsvolumen hele 18%.

FORVENTNINGER TIL 2017 Fremadrettet forventes den globale usikkerhed forsat at påvirkeinvestorerne, og med henblik på stadig flere forandringer i samfundet og erhvervslivet, vil ejendomme adskille sig som værende en mere traditionel og forudsigelig aktivklasse sammenlignet med eksempelvis det mere volatile aktiemarkedet. Ejendomsinvesteringers betydning i forhold til porteføljediversifikation understøttes af et fortsat lavt renteniveau, forventninger om højere inflation og volatilitet i alle aktivklasser. På baggrund af en forventning om stigende likviditet og efterspørgsel samt mangel på villige sælgere, vil prime afkastkravet sandsynligvis blive presset længere ned, mens aktiviteten på markedet muligvis vil blive mere afdæmpet som følge af mangel på investeringsmuligheder.

mest sandsynligt vil sælge til andre fonde, som fokuserer mere på en ”core” profil. Til sidst er det vigtigt at pointere, at vi forventer at se en fortsat stigende aktivitet i større provinsbyer som Køge, Kolding, Roskilde osv. – byer der lige nu oplever en høj aktivitet inden for nybyggeri. Dog er der som tidligere nævnt flere usikkerheder, som vil have en effekt på investeringsmarkedet i 2017. Dette særligt henset til det nuværende marked, der er ekstremt følsomt over for en stigende rente. I de segmenter, hvor vi har observeret lave afkast på prime beliggenheder, vil små stigninger i renten have en stor indflydelse på investeringsaktiviteten. Eftersom investorerne fortsat har fokus på potentielle trusler omkring dem, vil flere og flere investorer stille spørgsmålstegn ved, om 2017 mon er det rette tidspunkt at øge deres risikoeksponering i de større byer, eller om de skal udvide deres horisont mod andre markeder i håb om et højere afkast.

I 2017 forventer vi en stadig høj sale & leaseback aktivitet; både via regulære udbud, men også ved ”off market”-transaktioner. Derudover forventer vi, at den høje aktivitet fra udenlandske investorer fortsætter i samme stil som sidste år, hvor vi herunder også forventer, at nye udenlandske spillere vil tage del i aktiviteten. Ligeledes forventer vi at se flere transaktioner mellem udenlandske investorer, idet nogle af de udenlandske ”value-add” fonde vil sælge nogle af deres aktiver, og derfor

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER  MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE I 2017 27 / 27


THE CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD AND RED ALLIANCE RED Property Advisers has been a part of Cushman & Wakefield since 2004. Cushman & Wakefield are strengthened on a worldwide basis, and are the world’s second largest adviser within commercial real estate with 43,000 employees in more than 250 cities.

RED Property Advisers P/S Amaliegade 3, 5th floor DK-1256 Copenhagen K +45 33 13 13 99 red@red.dk red.dk

MDE, Chartered Surveyors MRICS

Market Report 2017 Issue I  
Market Report 2017 Issue I