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MARKET REPORT - RED PROPERTY ADVISERS ISSUE II 2016 - COPENHAGEN

All parameters in the Danish hotel market are promising but the hotel transaction volume has yet to pick up activity.


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

PROJECTION FOR 2016 – SPOTLIGHT ON CAPITAL MARKETS

ISSUE II 2016 2 / 31

OFFICE

2015 Q4

2016 Q1

CHANGE

Prime yield (Copenhagen City) 4.25% 4.25% 0 bp Investment volume in million 540 € 457 € - 83 € Vacancy (Copenhagen City) 8.10% 8.30% + 20 bp RETAIL 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 CHANGE Prime yield (Copenhagen High Streets) 3.60% Secondary yield (Copenhagen Side Streets) 4.75% Investment volume in million 143 €

3.50% 4.75% 222 €

- 10 bp 0 bp + 79 €

TRANSACTION VOLUME LAST 12 MONTHS - DKK 56.2 BN 24

12 9 6

5 Other

Nicholas Thurø Managing Partner RED Property Advisers

Land

Enjoy the report!

Retail

So far, the large transactions have dominated 2016 so far with some of the more established international investors leading the way. Standard Life has acquired the Danske Bank headquarters and a port-

INVESTMENT MARKET

Residential

In this issue of our market report we have performed a simple analysis with a projection for the year. Despite the great activity we are yet to see the hotel segment becoming more liquid. Although many operators – foreign as well as domestic – are showing great interest in hotel properties and properties with development potential, while the European hotel investment market is booming, we are still to see the trading volumes for the hotel segment really pick up in Denmark. The supply of rooms and new hotel projects will increase in the years to come, but the question is whether this will stimulate the investment market or if it will remain user driven?

folio of logistic properties – both in billion DKK deals. CBRE Global Investors bought the newly developed shopping center BIG Shopping in Herlev, which illustrates that the Copenhagen high-streets is not the only retail location in focus. Niam has bought residential properties for somewhat 750 M DKK in Aalborg also proving that investors with insight into the Danish market are not afraid to invest outside of Copenhagen.

BN DKK

All segments are being traded at almost record high volume levels and the first part of 2016 indicates that the year as a whole will surpass 2015 by 20% or more.


CONTENT ISSUE II FOCUS

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

MACROECONOMICS

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

INVESTMENT MARKET OFFICE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 RESIDENTIAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 RETAIL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 THE HOTEL MARKET - ARTICLE

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

TRANSACTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 OCCUPIER MARKET OFFICE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 RETAIL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 RETAIL - FOOTFALL ANALYSIS

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

APPENDIX - DANISH TRANSLATION DANSK VERSION AF FOKUS ARTIKEL

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

DANSK VERSION AF HOTEL ARTIKEL.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

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3,085 m2 office space on two floor levels are currently in the market for letting on Weidekampsgade 14

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MACROECONOMICS

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DANSK VERSION PÅ SIDE 28

ISSUE II FOCUS 2016 HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HISTORICALLY HIGH TRANSACTION VOLUME FIGURE 1: TOTAL TRANSACTION VOLUME 2006-2016E 90 80 70 60

BN DKK

The global property trading activity dropped in 2015 for the first time in 6 years. On the contrary this was certainly not the case if we look domestically where the Danish market reached an all time high since the financial crisis. For this article, we have examined both the historical and current state of the market in order to answer the question; what should we anticipate for the year 2016?

50 40 30 20 10

OUTLOOK 2016

0

Overall, the fundamentals of the domestic property market are very good with prices at a high level and a high inflow of global capital. The occupier market is relatively solid and the volume near record height. In the past year Denmark was one of the fastest growing markets in Europe, together with Norway, Italy and Portugal. Looking at figure 1, the historical trend is quite clear, in which it is fair to state that the property investment volume in Denmark is closing in on the level that we saw before the financial crisis. By examining historically how big a share the first quarter constitutes of the entire year’s property transaction volume, we have performed an estimate of the volume in 2016 considering both an optimistic and pessimistic case. Since 2010, the first quarter activity has represented between 17-22% of the total transaction volume of the given year. This year, the transaction volume for the first quarter has reached the highest point that we have seen since the financial crisis and totals DKK 14.2 bn. Consequently, if the year continues the way it has started, it is reasonable to anticipate that the total transaction volume will exceed the levels that we saw before the financial crisis. Given the assumption that the first quarter amounts to 17% of the total property trading activity this

ISSUE II 2016 6 / 31

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Transaction volume

Q1 share of total transaction volume

Note: E2016-low and E2016-high reflect forecasts using the high and low Q1 share of the yearly volume as projection method Source: RED Property Advisers

year, the estimate of the total transaction volume is DKK 84.7 bn. However, assuming a more pessimistic market outcome in which the first quarter accounts for 22% of the total transaction volume, we reach an estimate of DKK 63.2 bn.

...the transaction volume for the first quarter has reached the highest point that we have seen since the financial crisis and totals DKK 14.2 billion

How the market actually will perform is to some extent determined by the specific risk factors facing the domestic market. With the current low levels of interest rates, investors will continue to face the question concerning what levels of risk and pricing is right for them. Furthermore, international risks such as the UK vote on EU membership and the refugee crisis are also issues that could potentially influence the total market performance.

MACROECONOMICS

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SEGMENTAL TRENDS Comparing across market segments, industrial and residential transactions have experienced the strongest volume increase during the last couple of quarters. The industrial segment have faced an increased focus, accounting for 14% of the total transaction volume in the previous quarter – its highest on record since 2011. Hereunder, e-commerce, changing technology and retailer expansion are spurring the development of logistics in most of Europe, also in Denmark. The residential sector has experienced an even more significant increase in terms of market share, taking a 38-53% market share in the last three quarters. The growth in this segment was to a high extent based on the activity from real estate companies and property funds. Even though we have seen the most substantial price and rental growth in the retail segment – both in terms of the European market but similarly for the Danish market – retail transactions have accounted for much less of the to-

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APPENDIX


tal transaction volume than compared to previous quarters. However, as can be seen in figure 2, the retail sector’s performance has historically been quite mixed, in which the retail transactions only have accounted for 6-13% of the total volume in the previous couple of quarters. On the other hand, the office sector has experienced a more evident downward going trend in terms of market share. While previously having accounted for 58% and 48% of the volume, the office segment has in the last couple of quarters taken a more modest part of the market share, accounting for only 11-23% of the entire transaction volume. Figure 2 shows the sector share of domestic trading volume, and as can be seen from the graph, each sector’s market share fluctuates from quarter to quarter. Taking the total year of 2016 into consideration, it is evident that there is a high level of uncertainty with regards to the turnout of the segmental breakdown. However, if the year continues as Q1, the residential setor will once again account for the majority of the volume while the industrial segment will constitute a historically high market share. In general, core markets are expected to be in strong demand - hereunder the Nordic region, which is predicted to be one of top targets for a range of both regional and global investors. According to Cushman & Wakefield it is not about the sector, and investors should rather focus upon investing in modern flexible and sustainable space in accessible, popular areas as the division between sectors are starting to get blurred by new living and working patterns. Consequently, the focus should lie on investing in assets that work for the occupier in which the flexi-

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MACROECONOMICS

bility of the use is increasingly desirable. A stronger awareness of environmental risk both geographically and in design terms, will also benefit the investor. EXPECTATIONS To summarize, the Q1-volume of 2016 was vast and as historical figures shows, the representation of Q1 in the total annual transaction volume is constantly around 20%, while the sector breakdown in terms of market share fluctuates significantly. In addition to this there are certain ongoing external risk-factors that may have considerable impact. However, we would not be surprised if we saw a record-breaking year in 2016 – the momentum in the market is certainly present.

FIGURE 2: QUARTERLY BREAKDOWN OF TRANSACTION VOLUME BY SECTOR 100% 0%

5%

6% 17%

80% 25%

8%

13% 12%

51%

7%

13%

7%

21%

26%

60%

7%

53%

53%

38%

25% 40%

58% 41%

15%

48%

23% 11%

20%

36%

31% 15%

19%

Q1

Q2

23% 18%

15%

13%

6%

0% Q3

Q4

Q1

2014 Retail

Of ce

Q2

Q3

Q4

2015 Industrial

Residential

Hospitality

17% 13% Q1 2016

Land

Other

Source: RED Property Advisers

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MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW INTERNATIONAL TRADE BETWEEN UK AND DENMARK – BREXIT CONSEQUENCES

One of the economic drawbacks of the recent periods has been weak export, which is a key contributor to the national economy. Geopolitical uncertainty is expected to increase in the near future, leading up to 23 June, where the UK will hold a referendum to vote whether to stay or leave the European Union. If the UK votes to leave the EU, customs and tariffs might increase when trading with the UK where previously there has been an open border policy within EU countries. Besides the direct trading costs, multiple implicit effects might also occur resulting in shifting trade dynamics. These shifts will impact the pound resulting in further trading costs, which will affect the UK’s foreign investments significantly. Various independent forecasts, e.g. by UBS and HSBC, predict that if the UK decides to leave the EU, the pound will reach parity against the euro as shown in the figure. If the UK votes against a Brexit it is expected that the pound will re-strenghten to the level of mid-2015.

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MACROECONOMICS

MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES KEY VARIABLE

2015 Q2

2016 Q2

GDP Growth Rate y/y

3.2%

0.5%*

Inflation Rate y/y

0.7%

0.2%

Unemployment Rate - Denmark

6.4%

5.8%

Unemployment Rate - Copenhagen Region

7.0%

6.3%*

10 year Government Bond Short Term Mortgage Rate - 1 and 2 year bonds Long Term Mortgage Rate - 30 year bonds

0.15%

0.40%

-0.25%

-0.20%

2.14%

2.63%

TREND

*Unemployment for Copenhagen Region and GDP Growth Rates are the latest numbers published by Statistics Denmark, Q4 2015 Source: Statistics Denmark, Association of Danish Mortgage Banks and The Danish National Bank

BRITISH POUND VALUE AGAINST THE EURO 1 EXIT 1.00£/ € 0.9

0.8

GBP/ EUR

The unemployment in Denmark continues to improve despite the Danish economy struggling with low growth rates where the Danish government has yet again lowered its economic outlook for 2016. The inflation rate is also experiencing a hard time reaching the benchmark set by the Danish national bank due to the low oil prices. However, the macroeconomic climate appears healthy with consumer spending and investments being positive.

0.7 STAY 0.73£/ € 0.6

0.5

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Note: The gray area consists of estimated values Source: Bloomberg, UBS

Because of Denmark’s fixed exchange rate policy to the euro, the effects will be the same for the Danish krone, resulting in a stronger Danish currency compared to the pound. Consequently, UK-based investors’ appetite for assets in Denmark, and most of Europe, might be adversely affected for a while. Additionally, a weakened pound will stimulate UK exports and make imports more expensive. Reversely for nations trading with the UK, like Denmark, goods and services imported from the UK will be cheaper and domestic goods will be more expensive in the eyes of UK – decreasing exports to

INVESTMENT MARKET

the UK and increasing imports. Ceteris paribus, this relationship translates into a higher national trade deficit, which impacts GDP in Denmark negatively. The UK accounts for approximately 4% of the Danish imports and 6% of exports, making it among the 5 largest trading partners for Denmark in the world. The question is, if a Brexit will move Danish international trade to other EU countries and how UK investors will react to decreasing values of their foreign investments.

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INVESTMENT MARKET - OFFICE A SOUND 1ST QUARTER The investment volume in the office segment declined a bit for the previous 12 months, as this year’s Q1 volume was lower compared to the Q1 volume observed in 2015, however still reaching a solid quarterly volume. In the trailing 12 month period, property funds have dominated the office investment environment, while institutional investors have withdrawn a bit.

INVESTOR BREAKDOWN – Q2 2015 - Q1 2016

Private Investors

The Q1 investment volume amounted to DKK 3.7 bn, which was still below the DKK 5.1 bn volume registered in Q1 2015, where institutional investors accounted for 60% of the transaction volume. Contrary, in Q1 2016, we didn’t observe any transaction involving office space and institutional buyers, while property funds instead dominated with 61% share of the transaction volume. Especially Standard Life Investment’s acquisition of Danske Bank’s iconic Holmens Kanal portfolio for DKK 1.4 bn made headlines during the quarter, while M&G Real Estate also contributed considerably with the fund’s purchase of Kalvebod Brygge 47 for DKK 615 m.

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MACROECONOMICS

12%

15%

12.4

10%

Prime yields for office space have been under pressure during the last 12-24 months and the trend is still downwards.

Institutional Investors

Others

BN DKK

Property Funds Real Estate Companies

39%

24%

DANISH INVESTORS - 52 %

0%

20%

FOREIGN INVESTORS - 48 %

40%

60%

80%

100%

Source: RED Property Advisers

YIELDS SUBAREA

Q2 2014

Q2 2015

Q2 2016

Copenhagen City (CBD)

5.25%

4.75%

4.25%

Copenhagen E & W

5.75%

5.75%

5.50%

Frederiksberg

6.00%

5.75%

5.50%

Harbour areas

5.00%

4.75%

4.25%

South Harbour

6.00%

6.00%

6.00%

Ørestad

5.75%

5.75%

5.50%

Copenhagen N & NW

6.50%

6.50%

6.50%

South and West of Copenhagen

7.25%

7.25%

7.25%

North of Copenhagen

5.25%

5.25%

5.25%

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ISSUE II 2016 11 / 31


INVESTMENT MARKET - RESIDENTIAL THE SEGMENT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE The residential segment is still the largest in terms of transaction volume, and in Q1 2016 it continued the very strong performance, which we also saw during the last two quarters of 2015. Property funds continued to be the largest group of buyers for the trailing 12 month period, while real estate companies were the most active investors during Q1 with a 42% share.

INVESTOR BREAKDOWN – Q2 2015 - Q1 2016

Others

Institutional Investors

2%

6%

Real Estate Companies 28%

24.3

The total Q1 volume reached DKK 5.4 bn, while the last 12 months have seen total residential transactions worth DKK 24 bn – the highest volume registered in the post-crisis years across all segments.

BN DKK

Property Funds 50%

The Swedish real estate company Heimstaden bought two portfolios of residential units in Copenhagen for a total value of approx. DKK 2.4 bn, while the Swedish property fund NIAM bought a residential portfolio in Aalborg estimated at DKK 750 m.

Private Investors 15%

DANISH INVESTORS - 45 %

The Swedish buyers increased activity throughout Q1 raising foreign buyer’s shares of the transaction volume in the segment to 73%.

0%

FOREIGN INVESTORS - 55 %

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Source: RED Property Advisers

YIELDS

PRIME MARKET RENT DKK/SQM

ISSUE II 2016 12 / 31

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SUBAREA

Q1 2016

SUBAREA

Q4 2015

Copenhagen City

2,000 - 2,200

Copenhagen Area - rent control

2.00 - 3.00%

Copenhagen E, W & N

1,600 - 1,800

Copenhagen Suburb - rent control

3.00 - 4.00%

Frederiksberg

2,000 - 2,200

Copenhagen Area - market rent

4.00%

North Harbour

2,000 - 2,200

Copenhagen Suburb - market rent

4.50%

South Harbour

1,400 - 1,600

Copenhagen S

1,400 - 1,600

North of Copenhagen

1,700 - 1,900

MACROECONOMICS

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INVESTMENT MARKET - RETAIL LOWER YIELD LEVELS AND HIGHER VOLUME The transaction volume in the retail segment experienced its best performance for a first quarter since 2013 with realized transactions slightly above DKK 2 bn. The transaction volume was supported by several transactions on the Copenhagen high streets, while the last 12 months transaction volume of DKK 8.9 bn continues to be positively influenced by the Illum and Galleri K transactions during Q2 and Q3 of 2015.

INVESTOR BREAKDOWN – Q2 2015 - Q1 2016 Institutional Investors

Prime yields for the retail market around Strøget in central Copenhagen declined during 2015 to a level close to 3.50%, which was also the level seen during the first three months of 2016. Yields in other parts of the city also remained stable at around 4.75%-6.00%.

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Real Estate Companies

14%

7%

8.9

Foreign buyers, who were very active in the retail segment in 2015, continues to dominate the retail segment accounting for approx. 64% of the total transaction volume in Q1 compared to 73% for the last four quarters. The German property fund AEW Europe acquired Købmagergade 13 for approx. DKK 71 m, while the Spanish fund Euro Economics bought Østergade 21. Total transactions on the Copenhagen high streets amounted to DKK 785 m in Q1, accounting for close to 50% of the total volume in the segment. We also saw activity in the Greater Copenhagen area where Herlev Bymidte shopping center was acquired by NREP for DKK 250 m for complete redevelopment.

3%

Others

BN DKK

Property Funds 39% Users 36%

DANISH INVESTORS - 27 %

0%

FOREIGN INVESTORS - 73 %

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Source: RED Property Advisers

YIELDS CITY

STREET/SUBMARKET

Q2 2014

Q2 2015

Q2 2016

Copenhagen

Strøget (incl. Vimmelskaftet)

4.50%

4.00%

3.50%

Copenhagen

Strøget (secondary pedestrian area)

5.25%

5.00%

4.75%

Copenhagen

Østerbrogade

5.50%

5.50%

5.50%

Copenhagen

Nørrebrogade

6.25%

6.00%

5.75%

Copenhagen

Købmagergade

4.50%

4.00%

3.50%

Copenhagen

Lyngby

5.75%

5.75%

5.50%

Copenhagen

Suburban

6.75%

6.75%

6.75%

Aarhus

Søndergade

5.25%

5.25%

4.75%

Odense

Vestergade

5.75%

5.50%

5.50%

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ISSUE II 2016 13 / 31


DANSK VERSION PÅ SIDE 30

THE HOTEL MARKET THE COPENHAGEN HOTEL MARKET IS DOING HISTORICALLY WELL – BUT WHERE ARE THE TRANSACTIONS? Never before have there been more hotel transactions in Europe than was the case in 2015. At the same time, the Copenhagen hotels are doing great in almost every important parameter – also compared to other big European cities. Nevertheless, hotel transactions in Copenhagen are very limited in comparison. This is not due to low demand, but on the contrary due to a lack of products. The products are in the pipeline – but is it enough? One of the most stable hotel markets in Europe. More accommodations than ever before. Highest occupancy rate in several years. These are just a few of the promising sentences that – in all truthfulness - can be used to describe the Copenhagen hotel market. Despite this, not a lot of hotel assets are being traded. Since 2015 we have registered deals of a total of just DKK 1 bn, which was also the case the previous year. This is in a year in which transactions with hotels in many other countries in Europe have boomed. Thus, the hotel transaction volume amounted to EUR 23.7 bn, which

corresponds to a 65% increase compared to 2014. Thereby the transaction volume is above the level we saw before the crisis. Will this tendency transmit to the Danish market? Most of the prerequisites are certainly present. PROMISING TENDENCIES 2015 counted more accommodations than ever before in the Copenhagen hotels. This is a result of the general increase we have seen since 2009. As displayed by the graph, it is especially the number of accommodations by foreign tourists that has increased. Furthermore, the hotels are performing occupancy rates at a historically high level; 77% in 2015. At the same time the ADR has also risen in latter years, which has led to an increase in the REVPAR of the hotels. In comparison with other large cities in Europe, the Copenhagen hotel market is also doing well in current years. Recent figures from HVS’ report European Hotel Valuation Index 2016 rank Copenhagen among the 3 least volatile hotel

MILLION PEOPLE

8

80%

7

70%

6

60%

5

50%

4

40%

3

30%

2

20%

1

10%

0

0%

Foreign acc.

Occupancy (right axis)

Source: Statistics Denmark

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2013

2014

2015

1

Madrid

-5.6%

14.3%

14.2%

2

Dublin

6.6%

13.2%

13.4%

3

Birmingham

0.6%

11.0%

12.9%

13

Copenhagen

4.9%

9.1%

8.9%

32

Moscow Europe avg.

FIGURE 1: ACCOMMODATIONS AND OCCUPANCY IN COPENHAGEN 2000-2015

Danish acc.

HOTEL VALUE GROWTH IN EUROPE RANK CITY

-4.2% -37.9% -13.2% 0.6%

3.1%

3.6%

Source: HVS, European Hotel Valuation Index 2016

markets in Europe in regards to hotel value in their annual ranking of 32 large cities in Europe. Additionally, after several years with significant value growth, hotel assets in Copenhagen are now above the European mean in HVS’s valuation index for the first time ever. The solid performance of the hotel market has led to a significant pipeline with an addition of approximately 3,200 new hotel rooms in the years to come, as shown in the table to the right. As can be seen from the table, more and more products are being added, which can stimulate the demand from foreign and domestic investors as well as from hotel operators. However, a number of experts on the subject are not convinced that the present addition of rooms is adequate. According to EjendomsWatch and Kim Lundberg, Copenhagen Capacity, more than 70 international hotel chains are ready to establish themselves in Copenhagen. Typically, these hotels

DEFINITION: REVPAR: Revenue per available room ADR: Average daily rate

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will demand properties that have a size of around 5,000 sqm in order to foster 150 to 400 rooms, which at the same time are located in a central location in Copenhagen. This can pave the way for more and more older office and school buildings to be converted into hotels rather than into residential units as has been the rule rather than the exception in recent years. An example hereof is the former Royal Danish Academy of Music at Niels Brocks Gade 1, which is currently being converted to a luxury hotel operated by the Swedish hotel chain, Nobis Hotel. This new supply of assets in Copenhagen is a necessity in order for the hotel transactionactivity to really get going. The Copenhagen hotel market is highly shaped by a user-culture in the sense that hotel operators often own the very properties they use. It inherently sets a limit on the number of tradeable assets when dominating chains such as Cabinn and Arp-Hansen have a strategy, which involves owning the properties in which they operate.

More than 70 international hotel chains are ready to establish themselves in Copenhagen.

Overall, the Copenhagen hotels are doing better than ever before and thus it is not the willingness to enter the market – both on the investor side and the large international hotel operators side – that is missing. Even though continuous supply of new assets is high, much suggests that this is not nearly enough. However, it is our assessment that once the assets are there, the transactions will happen.

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Niels Brocks Gade 1 is one of many new hotel projects currently being developed in Copenhagen. The investor is AB Balder and the operator will be the Swedish hotel chain, Nobis Hotel.

COPENHAGEN HOTEL PIPELINE HOTEL

CLASS

NO. OF ROOMS

OPENING YEAR

Zleep Copenhagen Airport - expansion

Budget

17

2016

Hotel Moxy

Budget

217

2017

Scandic Kødbyen

Medium

370

2018

Nobis Hotel

High

80

2017

Arp-Hansen Hostel

Budget

250

2017

Charlottehaven*

Medium

37

2018

Cabinn Metro - expansion*

Budget

530

2017

Radisson Blu - expansion

Medium/High

280

2017/2018

Scandic Falconer Centre

Medium

134

2018

Avenue Hotel - expansion

Medium

12

TBA

Hotel Skt. Petri - expansion

High

30

TBA

Nimb Hotel - expansion

High

min. 20

TBA

Cabinn Ikea

Budget

1,200

2019

*Hotel apartments

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Nørre Søgade 29 is currently in the market for sale.

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TRANSACTIONS

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TRANSACTIONS OFFICE STREET NAME

LOCATION

DATE

SIZE (SQM)

PRICE VENDOR TYPE (M DKK)

VENDOR NAME

BUYER TYPE

BUYER NAME

Hedeager 1-5 & Kystvejen 29

Århus

2016/Q2

23,600

555.0

Real Estate Company C.W. Obel

Institutional Investor

PensionDanmark

Holmens Kanal 2

CPH City

2016/Q1

49,065

1,400.0

Albanigade 30

Odense

2016/Q1

4,300

52.3

User

Institutional Investor Danica Pension

Property Fund

Standard Life Investments

Private Investor

Karsten Bill Rasmussen

Rytterkasernen 11

Odense

2016/Q1

8,385

61.0

Dag Hammarskjolds Allé 28

CPH E

2015/Q4

1,596

63.0

Institutional Investor Danica Pension

Private Investor

Karsten Bill Rasmussen

Private Investor

Fritz Henrik Schur

Public Institution

Overgaden Oven Vandet 60A (Søkvæsthuset)

CPH City

2015/Q4

8,826

161.0

The Turkish Embassy

Public Institution

The Danish Armed Forces Private Investor

Store Kongensgade 22

CPH City

2015/Q4

1,244

48.5

Real Estate Company JL Ejendom

Other Fund

Store Kongensgade 62

CPH City

2015/Q4

1,772

52.2

Private Investor

Private Investor

Real Estate Company Jeudan

Stormgade 10

CPH City

2015/Q4

2,374

72.0

Public Institution

Freja Ejendomme

Property Fund

Artha Kapitalforvaltning

Strømmen 6

Nørresundby

2015/Q4

11,404

73.5

User

RTX A/S

Private Investor

K/S Strømmen

Danske Bank

Lennart Lajboschitz Erik & Susanna Olesens Almenvelgørende Fond

LAND STREET NAME

PURPOSE

LOCATION

DATE

SIZE (SQM. OF PRICE PER SQM. OF BUILDING RIGHT) BUILDING RIGHT

Havneøen 1 - 50% sold

Residential

Vejle

2016/Q1

est. 25,000

3,773

Ny Valby (Grønttorvet)

Residential

Valby

2016/Q1

234,000

2,564

Lokesvej 7-9 & Søren Frichs Residential Vej 51-53

Åbyhøj

2016/Q1

19,600

4,311

Ørestads Boulevard

Mixed

CPH S

2016/Q1

25,000

est. 5,000

Ved Amagerbanen 17

Residential

CPH S

2015/Q4

28,000

5,313

Mariendalsvej 55-57

Residential

Frederiksberg

2015/Q4

9,684

9,294

PRICE VENDOR NAME (M DKK) 47.2 Kirk Kapital 600.0 Private Investor 84.5 Danske Fragtmænd est. 125.0 By & Havn 148.8 C.W. Obel 90.0 Mogens de Linde

BUYER NAME

AP Pension FB Gruppen & PKA NREP & Innovator NREP Arkitektgruppen A/S Conceptor Development A/S

RETAIL STREET NAME

LOCATION

DATE

SIZE (SQM)

PRICE VENDOR TYPE (M DKK)

Herlev Bymidte Butikscenter Herlev

2016/Q1

15,005

BIG Shopping

Herlev

2016/Q1

45,705

est. 1,200.0 Property Fund

Amagertorv 2

CPH City

2016/Q1

810

200.0 Property Fund

Esbjerg Storcenter

Esbjerg

2016/Q1

20,000

est. 225.0 Institutional Investor

Nørrebrogade 224

CPH N

2016/Q1

2,146

Vesterbrogade 96

CPH W

2016/Q1

1,085

Vimmelskaftet 30

CPH City

2016/Q1

1,831

Østergade 21

CPH City

2016/Q1

2,706

280.0 Private Investor

Borups Alle 130

Frederiksberg 2015/Q4

6,401

139.5 User

Købmagergade 61

CPH City

ISSUE II 2016 18 / 31

FOCUS

2015/Q4

250.0 Other Fund

MACROECONOMICS

BUYER TYPE

BUYER NAME

Gudbjørg og Ejnar Honoré’s Fond Property Fund

NREP & NPV

NREP & NPV

Property Fund

CBRE GIP & Portus Retail

Avignon Capital

Private Investor

German Family Office

Købstædernes Forsikring

Real Estate Company Thylander Gruppen

59.5 Private Investor

Private Investor

Other Fund

Dreyers Fond

58.7 Private Investor

Private Investor

Private Investor

Private Investor

Not disclosed

Property Fund

Not disclosed

Michael Kaa Andersen

Property Fund

Euro Economics

Dansk Supermarked A/S

Other Fund

KFI Erhvervsdrivende fond

Not disclosed User

862

VENDOR NAME

38.4 Real Estate Company CVI Group

INVESTMENT MARKET

Real Estate Company Copenhagen Capital

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


Vimmelskaftet 30

HOTEL HOTEL NAME

LOCATION

DATE

PRICE PER ROOM (DKK)

PRICE (M DKK)

Avenue Hotel

Frederiksberg C

Hotel Opera

CPH City

Hotel Rossini Anneks Villa Strand

VENDOR NAME

BUYER NAME

2016/Q1

852,941

2016/Q1

989,011

58.0

Private Investor

Brøchner Hotels

90.0

ARP-Hansen Hotel Group

Hotel Sander’s

Valby

2015/Q4

Hornbæk

2015/Q4

1,071,429

90.0

Private Investor

Private Investor

937,500

15.0

Gunner Ruben

Lennart Lajboschitz

Hotel Hornbækhus

Hornbæk

2015/Q4

Comwell Roskilde

Roskilde

2015/Q4

615,385

16.0

Gunner Ruben

Lennart Lajboschitz

1,679,245

267.0

AFK Koncernen

PensionDanmark

Hotel Opera

CPH City

2015/Q3

Nyropsgade 38 - ARP-Hansen Hostel*

CPH W

2015/Q3

626,374

57.0

Danske Bank

ARP-Hansen Hotel Group

Not applicable

180.0

Dansk Metal

ARP-Hansen Hotel Group

Scandic Kødbyen*

CPH W

2015/Q3

Not applicable

est. 200.0

Niels Brocks Gade 1 - Nobis Hotel*

CPH W

2015/Q3

Not applicable

74.4

Benjamin Capital

KLP Ejendomme

Meghraj

AB Balder

STREET NAME

LOCATION DATE

SIZE (SQM)

PRICE VENDOR TYPE (M DKK)

VENDOR NAME

BUYER TYPE

BUYER NAME

Poppelstykket 12 - Residential project

Valby

2016/Q2

7,400

125.0

Developer

Corpus Development

Institutional Investor

PKA

Student Housing Aalborg

Aalborg

2016/Q2

6,800

60.0

Developer

A. Enggaard

Institutional Investor

PKA

3 residential properties (303 apartments) CPH

2016/Q1

29,000

980.0

Institutional Investor

Danica Pension

Real Estate Company

Heimstaden

Carlsberg Portfolio (6 properties)

2016/Q1 Not disclosed

1,100.0

Other Fund

Carlsberg Fondet

Institutional Investor

PFA, JØP and DIP

*Hotel development projects

RESIDENTIAL

CPH

Da Vinci Parken (Marie Curies Alle 4 etc.) Aalborg

2016/Q1

42,500

668.0

Developer

A. Enggaard

Property Fund

Niam

Hvidts Gaard (Brohusgade 9 etc.)

Aalborg

2016/Q1

4,500

82.0

Developer

Sveafastigheter

Property Fund

Niam

Vigerslev Allé 198

Valby

2016/Q1

11,513

230.0

Bankruptcy

A/B Kærskifte

Property Fund

Not disclosed

Georg Brandes Plads 2

CPH City

2015/Q4

9,629

350.0

Property Fund

Norden Fund VI

Property Fund

Norden Fund VII

Hauser Plads 28C-32

CPH City

2015/Q4

5,020

108.0

Private Investor

Privat Investor

Property Fund

Norden

Portfolio (4 properties in Haderslev)

Haderslev 2015/Q4 Not disclosed

129.6

Private Investor

JYSK ODIN ApS

Private Investor

MONAC A/S

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2016 19 / 31


OCCUPIER MARKET

ISSUE II 2016 20 / 31

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


OCCUPIER MARKET - OFFICE INCREASING TENANT ACTIVITY The improving economy that we have seen over the course of 2015 translates to smaller businesses looking for more office space, which is shown in the increasing demand for small and medium offices especially in CBD. The supply of small offices - less than 1,000 sqm - is decreasing in CBD making businesses look towards areas surrounding CBD.

SIGNIFICANT LEASES STREET NAME

LOCATION

DATE

SIZE (SQM) LANDLORD

TENANT

Agern Allé 24-26

CPH Area

2016/Q1

6,028 Scion DTU A/S

Cheminova A/S

Prags Boulevard 80

CPH S

2016/Q1

4,843 Topdanmark Ejendomme A/S

Nordea IT

Midtermolen 3

Harbour Area

2016/Q1

2,950 Alm. Brand

A marketing and communication agency

Gladsaxe Company House CPH Area

2016/Q1

2,300 NCC

Crayon A/S

Tuborg Havnevej 18

CPH Area

2016/Q1

2,070 SamPension

Not disclosed

Amaliegade 15

CPH City

2016/Q1

2,068 Patrizia Denmark A/S

Baum und Pferdgarten

The increasing rent levels in CBD is an effect of the high and increasing demand for prime offices, and over time it will have a spillover effect on the areas surrounding CBD such as Nordhavnen and Kalvebod Brygge. These surrounding areas can therefore expect an increasing interest from a new group of tenants.

Bredevej 2

CPH Area

2016/Q1

1,979 PKA A/S

Colgate-Palmolive A/S

Rosenborggade 15-17

CPH City

2016/Q1

1,339 Catella Real Estate AG

Vice ApS

Vandtårnsvej 83A

1,246 Nordkranen A/S

Rosendahls A/S

Especially offices with a special character including office buildings with an industrial look, old warehouses, creative environments etc. are in high demand. The high demand for prime offices in CBD has led to numerous constructions of new and green office properties, and in 2016 around 70,000 sqm of new office space in Copenhagen will be ready for occupation.

CPH Area

2016/Q1

Gladsaxe Company House CPH Area

2016/Q1

900 NCC

Projectum

Kalvebod Brygge 45

CPH W

2016/Q1

770 Norrporten

Gartner Danmark

Lersø Parkallé 38

CPH E

2016/Q1

744 Dreyers Fond

AS3 A/S

Toldbodgade 33

CPH City

2016/Q1

717 Tryg Ejendomme

Diabetesforeningen

Toldbodgade 39

CPH City

2016/Q1

692 Thylander Gruppen

Peria Capital A/S

Axel Towers

CPH W

2016/Q1

628 ATP Ejendomme

Core Property Management A/S

Vognmagergade 11

CPH City

2016/Q1

520 Egmont Fonden

Simon, Kucher & Partners

VACANCY RATES AND UNEMPLOYMENT Office vacancy rates compared to unemployment in Copenhagen

PRIME RENT DKK/SQM*

12,00%

Q1 2016

10,00%

Copenhagen City (CBD)

1,700

8,00%

Copenhagen E & W

1,250

Frederiksberg

1,300

Harbour areas

1,850

South Harbour

1,300

Ørestad

1,300

Copenhagen N & NW

1,100

*Base rents ex. service charges

FOCUS

Vacancy rate Copenhagen City

Vacancy rate Copenhagen Area

Q1 2016

Q3 2015

Q1 2015

Q3 2014

Q1 2014

Q3 2013

Q1 2013

Q3 2012

Q1 2012

0,00% Q3 2011

950 1,300

2,00%

Q1 2011

North of Copenhagen

4,00%

Q3 2010

South and west of Copenhagen

6,00%

Q1 2010

SUBAREA

Unemployment Copenhagen Area

Source: Statistics Denmark & Oline.dk

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2016 21 / 31


OCCUPIER MARKET - RETAIL SECONDARY MARKETS ARE REGAINING ATTENTION In continuation of the comprehensive and utter development of the southern end of Købmagergade, Copenhagen is currently facing the subsequent movements of the snowball effect from the international retailers. Smaller but yet recognizable brands are now looking to open up stores in the side streets in Copenhagen. Norwegian sunglass manufacturer, Kaibosh, is opening in Sværtegade, the Dutch tailor, Suitsupply, is opening in Grønnegade and the Berlin based optician, Mykita, is opening in Grønnegade as well. Common for all is that each brand is taking over a unit that has previously been occupied by a local operator. The tenants seek untraditional manners to enter or expand the Danish market, which opens up a whole lot of opportunities in the city. In addition to this, the area around the main entrance of the amusement park, Tivoli, is undergoing transformation as well. The development of the Tivoli Corner has been confirmed and the project will include restaurants, retail units and a food-court. Opposite this construction site, Axel Towers is piling up. The towers will consist of retailers and restaurants as well as offices.

SIGNIFICANT LEASES STREET NAME

LOCATION

DATE

SIZE (SQM)

NEW TENANT

Købmagergade 30

CPH City

2016/Q2

200

Joe and the Juice

Købmagergade 9

CPH City

2016/Q2

286

Thiele

Grønnegade 43

CPH City

2016/Q2

100

Mykita

Sværtegade 3

CPH City

2016/Q2

120

Kaibosh

Grønnegade 10

CPH City

2016/Q2

465

Suitsupply

Gammel Kongevej 47

Frederiksberg

2016/Q2

207

Wood Wood

Tullinsgade 21

Frederiksberg

2016/Q2

Not available

Mads Nørgaard

Gammel Kongevej 41

Frederiksberg

2016/Q2

Not available

Soulland

Værnedamsvej 3

Frederiksberg

2016/Q2

146

Aesop

Kristen Bernikows Gade 7

CPH City

2016/Q2

194

Rapha

Frederiksborggade 12

CPH City

2016/Q1

621

Burger King

PRIME RENT DKK/SQM SUBAREA

Q4 2015

Q1 2016

CHANGE

Strøget - low end

10,000

10,000

0.00%

Strøget - median

17,500

17,500

0.00%

Strøget - high end

23,500

23,500

0.00%

Købmagergade - low end

7,500

7,500

0.00%

Købmagergade - median

14,000

14,000

0.00%

Købmagergade - high end

17,500

17,500

0.00%

Strøget/Købmagergade Side Streets

6,500

6,750

3.85%

Østerbrogade

2,600

2,600

0.00%

Nørrebrogade

1,900

1,900

0.00%

Gammel Kongevej

2,100

2,250

7.14%

VACANCY RATES AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Retail vacancy rates compared to consumer confidence in Copenhagen 5,00%

15

4,50% 4,00%

10

3,50% 5

3,00% 2,50%

0

2,00% 1,50% 1,00%

-5

0,50% 0,00%

Vacancy rate Copenhagen City

Vacancy rate Copenhagen area

Source: Statistics Denmark & Oline.dk

ISSUE II 2016 22 / 31

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

Q1 2016

Q3 2015

Q1 2015

Q3 2014

Q1 2014

Q3 2013

Q1 2013

Q3 2012

Q1 2012

Q3 2011

Q1 2011

Q3 2010

-10 Q1 2010

Another detail worth mentioning is the prominent direction of the street of Værnedamsvej in the sub-district of Vesterbro. The Australian skin care manufacturer, Aesop, has recently opened their doors to the first store in Denmark and the Danish internationals from Wood Wood, Mads Nørgaard and Soulland are all looking to open up close by in the near future.


RED Property Advisers are responsible for the retail letting in the new Axel Towers. Completion is set to primo 2017.

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2016 23 / 31


FOOTFALL ANALYSIS NUMBER OF PEDESTRIANS INCREASES IN THE COPENHAGEN HIGH STREETS In 2015 the Copenhagen high streets experienced a lot of construction work completing, opening the streets for better access and flow. The frequently used metro station at Nørreport opened up a new stairway and the Kgs. Nytorv metro station has become more accesible. Despite still waiting for the new Prada shop to open, most of the renovation of the Illum corner closest to Amagertorv finished in early 2015. Obstacles in the shopping streets following construction work, highly affects the people flow, which is evident in our statistics. Comparing Q1 2015 with Q1 2016 we find that all our counting points have increased in hourly bypassing pedestrians which, is a great success for the high streets.

Kultorvet

ager Købm e

gad

However, despite some construction work being completed, there are still ongoing obstacles on the high streets with the current renovation of Postgården and the construction of new metro stations at Gammel Strand and Rådhudspladsen.

4.

5,150

COUNTING METHODOLOGY RED carries out the counts on Fridays at 4 pm with the purpose of registrering a development and conclude a level of footfall at different locations on Strøget and Købmagergade. The footfall is counted manually from both directions.

Noteworthy is that Vimmelskaftet/ Amagertorv experienced an increase with almost 1,600 footfall counts compared to Q1 last year making it the busiest crossing point in the Copenhagen High Streets. This can be seen in conjunction with the continous development of Strøget where we have observed a movement of interest from Østergade towards Amagertorv.

Vim

Gammeltorv

3.

5,300

24 / 31

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS Rådhuspladsen INVESTMENT  MARKET

e ad

g

erg

sb

k eri

d

Fre

ISSUE II 2016

e

ad

Nyg

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


FOOTFALL COUNTS IN Q1 2015 AND 2016

THE MAP The map shows the counting points and the average footfall per hour the last 12 months.

NO.

STREET NAME

Q1 2015

Q1 2016

CHANGE

1

Østergade

2,728

3,065

+ 337

2

Amagertorv/Østergade

5,117

5,578

+ 461

3

Frederiksberggade

3,820

5,274

+ 1,454

4

Frederiksborggade/Købmagergade

4,364

4,936

+ 572

5

Rundetårn

-

4,740

-

6

Købmagergade/Silkegade

4,819

5,280

+ 462

7

Vimmelskaftet/Amagertorv

4,798

6,366

+ 1,568

5.

5,300

Kgs. Nytorv

3,850

6.

de

rga

1.

e Øst

5,850 Købm e

gad

ager

gade

rv

Øster 2.

6,300

erto Amag

7.

6,550

mmelskaftet

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2016 25 / 31


APPENDIX - DANISH TRANSLATION

ISSUE II 2016 26 / 31

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER  MARKET

APPENDIX


The large scenic office property in Virum, Teknikerbyen, is currently offered for sale.

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER  MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2016 27 / 31


ISSUE II FOKUS 2016 HAR POTENTIALE FOR EN HISTORISK HØJ TRANSAKTIONSVOLUME FIGUR 1: TOTAL TRANSAKTIONSVOLUME 2006-2016E 90 80 70 60

MIA. KR.

Den globale transaktionsaktivitet i ejendomsmarkedet i 2015 faldt for første gang i seks år. Derimod var dette ikke tilfældet for det danske marked, der nåede det højeste niveau siden den finansielle krise. I denne artikel undersøger vi både den historiske og den nuværende markedssituation for at besvare spørgsmålet; Hvad skal vi forvente for året 2016?

50 40 30 20 10

OUTLOOK 2016 Overordnet ser de grundlæggende faktorer på det nationale ejendomsmarked meget lovende ud med et højt prisniveau, stor indstrømning af kapital fra udenlandske investorer, et relativt stabilt udlejningsmarked, og en volumen der nærmer sig rekordniveau. Danmark var i det forløbne år et af de hurtigst voksende markeder i Europa sammen med Norge, Italien og Portugal. Som det fremgår af figur 1, er den historiske tendens forholdsvis entydig, af hvilken grund det må være rimeligt at fastslå, at den danske transaktionsvolumen nærmer sig det niveau, vi så inden den finansielle krise. Ved at undersøge historisk, hvor stor en andel første kvartal udgør af det samlede års transaktionsvolumen, har vi udarbejdet et estimat af den totale volumen i 2016, hvor vi både tager et optimistisk og et pessimistisk udfald i betragtning. Siden 2010 har første kvartal repræsenteret mellem 17-22% af den totale transaktionsvolumen af det angivne år. Transaktionsvolumen for første kvartal i år nåede det højeste niveau, vi har set siden den finansielle krise, og udgør 14,2 milliarder kroner. Hvis året fortsætter, som det er startet, er det rimeligt at forvente, at den totale transaktionsvolumen vil overgå de niveauer, vi så inden den finansielle krise. Baseret på den antagelse, at første kvartal repræsenterer 17% af dette års totale transaktionsak-

ISSUE II 2016 28 / 31

FOCUS

0

Transaktionsvolumen

Q1 andel af den totale transaktionsvolumen

Note: E2016-low og E2016-high reflekterer forecasts ved brug af hhv. den høje og den lave Q1 andel af den årlige volume som projektionsmetode Kilde: RED Property Advisers

tivitet, estimeres den samlede transaktionsvolumen til at udgøre 84,7 milliarder kroner. Under forudsætning af et mere pessimistisk markedsudfald, hvor første kvartal repræsenterer 22% af den totale volumen, vil der derimod opnås et estimat på 63,2 milliarder kroner.

Transaktionsvolumen for første kvartal i år har nået det højeste niveau, vi har set siden den finansielle krise og udgør 14,2 mia. kroner.

Hvordan markedet faktisk vil præstere, bestemmes delvist af de specifikke risici, der potentielt kan ramme det nationale marked. Givet det nuværende lave renteniveau vil investorerne stadig skulle tage stilling til det risikoniveau og den prisfastsættelse, der er rigtig for dem. Ydermere er internationale risici såsom den britiske afstemning om EU-medlemskab og flygtningekrisen faktorer, der potentielt kan påvirke markedets præstationsevne.

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

SEGMENTERNES UDVIKLING Hvis vi sammenligner på tværs af markedssegmenterne, har både industriog boligsegmentet haft den største stigning i løbet af de sidste par kvartaler. Industrisegmentet har oplevet et øget fokus, og udgjorde i sidste kvartal 14% af den totale markedsandel – det højeste niveau siden 2011. Hertil har e-handel, skiftende teknologi og ekspansion af detaillister ansporet udviklingen af logistik i det meste af Europa, også i Danmark. Boligsegmentet har haft en endnu mere markant stigning i forhold til markedsandelen, der udgjorde 38-53% af transaktionsvolumen de sidste tre kvartaler. Væksten i dette segment var i høj grad baseret på aktiviteten fra ejendomsselskaber og ejendomsfonde. Selvom vi har set den mest betydelige vækst for så vidt angår pris- og lejeniveauer i detailsegmentet – både på det europæiske marked, men ligeledes det danske marked – har detailtransaktionerne repræsenteret en langt mindre andel af den samlede transaktionsvolu-

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


men sammenlignet med tidligere kvartaler. Dog, som det ses af figur 2, har detailsektorens historiske markedsandel været ganske blandet, hvor detailtransaktionerne kun har udgjort henholdsvis 6% og 13% af den totale volumen de sidste par kvartaler. På den anden side har kontorsegmentet oplevet en mere tydelig nedadgående tendens i forhold til markedsandele. Til trods for en tidligere andel på 48-58% af den totale volumen, har kontorsegmentet de sidste par kvartaler udgjort en mere beskeden andel af markedsvolumen. Her tegner det sig kun for 11-23% af den samlede transaktionsvolumen. Figur 2 viser de forskellige segmenter og deres andel af den totale transaktionsvolumen. Det ses af grafen, at hvert segments markedsandel fluktuerer betydeligt fra kvartal til kvartal. Betragter man hele 2016, er det derfor tydeligt, at der er en høj grad af usikkerhed i forhold til, hvordan de egentlige fordelinger ender med at blive. Hvis året imidlertid fortsætter som 1. kvartal, vil boligsegmentet igen udgøre størstedelen af transaktionsvolumen, og industrisegmentet vil stå for en historisk høj andel. Generelt forventes det, at core-markeder fortsat vil være meget efterspurgt, og herunder anses Norden, blandt andre, som et stærkt marked, som vil være blandt mange regionale og globale investorers topprioritet. Ifølge Cushman & Wakefield handler investeringer dog i mindre grad om segmentet, og investorerne bør hellere fokusere på moderne, fleksible og bæredygtige lokaler i let tilgængelige og populære områder. Dette skyldes, at forskellen mellem segmenter er ved at blive mere sløret som følge af nye leve- og arbejdsmønstre. Dermed

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

bør man investere i aktiver, som er tilpasset til lejerne, hvor der i en højere grad bliver efterspurgt fleksibilitet. En større opmærksomhed på miljømæssige risici, både geografisk, men også i forhold til design, vil samtidig være til stor gavn for investorerne. FORVENTNINGER TIL MARKEDET For at opsummere, så har transaktionsvolumen i det første kvartal af 2016 været historisk høj, og som det fremgår af figuren, har Q1-andelen af årets totale volumen ligget konstant på omkring 20% de seneste år. Ser man nærmere på de forskellige segmenter, fremgår det, at fordelingen imellem segmenternes andel af volumen fluktuerer meget. Dertil er der visse eksterne risikofaktorer, der kan have væsentlig indflydelse på både total volumen og segmentfordeling. Vi vil imidlertid ikke blive overrasket, hvis vi i 2016 oplever endnu et rekordår – der er bestemt momentum i markedet.

FIGUR 2: KVARTALVIS SEGMENTFORDELING AF TRANSAKTIONSVOLUMEN 100% 0%

5%

6% 17%

80% 25%

8%

13% 12%

51%

7%

13%

7%

21%

26%

60%

7%

53%

53%

38%

25% 40%

58% 41%

15%

48%

23% 11%

20%

36%

31% 15%

19%

Q1

Q2

23% 18%

15%

13%

6%

0% Q3

Q4

Q1

2014 Retail

Of ce

Q2

Q3

Q4

2015 Industrial

Residential

Hospitality

17% 13% Q1 2016

Land

Other

Kilde: RED Property Advisers

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2016 29 / 31


HOTEL MARKEDET DET KØBENHAVNSKE HOTELMARKED KLARER SIG HISTORISK GODT – MEN HVOR BLIVER TRANSAKTIONERNE AF? Aldrig er der blevet handlet flere hoteller i Europa, end der blev i 2015. Samtidig klarer hotellerne i København sig godt på næsten alle vigtige parametre – også set i forhold til øvrige europæiske storbyer. Alligevel halter antallet af hoteltransaktioner i hovedstaden gevaldigt efter. Dette skyldes ikke manglende efterspørgsel, men tværtimod manglende produkter! Produkterne er på vej – men er det nok? Et af de mest stabile hotelmarkeder i Europa. Flere overnatninger end nogensinde før. Højeste belægningsprocenter i flere år. Dette er blot nogle af de lovende sætninger, der i al sandfærdighed beskriver hotelmarkedet i København. På trods heraf bliver der stadig ikke handlet mange hoteller. Siden 2015 har vi således kun registreret handler for omkring 1 mia. kr., hvilket også var tilfældet året før. Dette i et år, hvor transaktionerne med hoteller i flere øvrige lande i Europa er boomet. Således blev der i 2015 handlet hoteller for omkring 23,7 milliarder euro, hvilket svarer til en stigning på 65% i forhold til 2014. Dermed

er transaktionsvolumen over det niveau, vi så før krisen. Vil denne tendens smitte af på det danske marked? De fleste forudsætninger er der i hvert fald. LOVENDE TENDENSER I 2015 var der flere overnatninger end nogensinde før på de københavnske hoteller. Dette er en konsekvens af den generelle tendens, der har været siden 2009. Som det ses af grafen, er det specielt antallet af overnatninger fra udenlandske turister, der er steget. Hotellerne præsterer også historisk høje belægningsprocenter; hele 77% i 2015. Samtidig er den gennemsnitligt opnåede værelsespris, ADR, også steget de senere år, hvilket har bevirket, at hotellernes REVPAR har haft samme stigende tendens. Sammenlignet med andre europæiske storbyer præsterer det københavnske hotelmarked rigtigt lovende i disse år. Således rangerer hotelaktiver i København blandt de 3 mindst volatile i Europa, viser de nyeste tal fra HVS’ rapport ”European Hotel Valuation Index

MILLIONER MENNESKER

FIGUR 1: HOTELOVERNATNINGER OG BELÆGNINGSPROCENT I KØBENHAVN 2000-2015 8

80%

7

70%

6

60%

5

50%

4

40%

3

30%

2

20%

1

10%

0

0%

Danske

Udenlandske

Belægning (højre akse)

Kilde: Danmarks Statistik

ISSUE II 2016 30 / 31

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

HOTEL VÆRDIVÆKST I EUROPA RANG BY

2013

2014

2015

1

Madrid

-5.6%

14.3%

14.2%

2

Dublin

6.6%

13.2%

13.4%

3

Birmingham

0.6%

11.0%

12.9%

13

Copenhagen

4.9%

9.1%

8.9%

32

Moscow Europe avg.

-4.2% -37.9% -13.2% 0.6%

3.1%

3.6%

Kilde: HVS, European Hotel Valuation Index 2016

2016”, der årligt sammenligner hoteller i 32 storbyer i Europa. Samtidig er hotelaktiverne i København steget meget i værdi de senere år og befinder sig nu for første gang nogensinde over det europæiske gennemsnit i HVS’s valuation index. De positive tendenser på hotelmarkedet har også ført til en stor pipeline med tilførsel af ca. 3.200 nye hotelværelser over de kommende år, hvilket kan ses af tabellen til højre. Der tilføres derved flere og flere produkter, som kan stimulere efterspørgslen fra de udenlandske og indenlandske investorer såvel som hoteloperatørerne. Alligevel vurderer flere eksperter på området, at den nuværende tilførsel af værelser ikke er tilstrækkelig. Ifølge EjendomsWatch og Kim Lundberg fra Copenhagen Capacity, er mere end 70 internationale hotelkæder klar til at etablere sig i København. Typisk vil disse hoteller dog skulle bruge ejendomme i størrelsesordenen 5.000 kvm for at kunne etablere 150 til 400 værelser, som

DEFINITION: REVPAR: Omsætning per ledigt værelse ADR: Gennemsnitlig daglig værelsespris

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX


samtidig skal ligge centralt i byen. Dette kan bane vejen for, at flere ældre kontoreller skolebygninger kan blive konverteret til hoteller fremfor boliger, som det snarere har været reglen end undtagelsen de senere år. Et eksempel herpå er det tidligere kongelige musikkonservatorium på Niels Brocks Gade 1, der er ved at blive konverteret til et luksushotel drevet af den svenske kæde, Nobis Hotel. Denne tilførsel af nye aktiver i København er nødvendig for, at der kan komme gang i hoteltransaktionerne. Det københavnske hotelmarked er i høj grad præget af en bruger-kultur, forstået på den måde, at hoteloperatørerne ofte ejer de ejendomme, de selv bruger. Det sætter i sagens natur en grænse for antallet af omsættelige aktiver, når eksempelvis Cabinn og Arp-Hansen, som er to af de toneangivende kæder på markedet, har en strategi om selv at eje de bygninger, hvori de driver deres hoteller.

...er mere end 70 internationale hotelkæder klar til at etablere sig i København.

Hotellerne i København klarer sig således bedre end nogensinde før, og det er ikke villigheden til at indtræde på markedet fra investorerne og de internationale kæder, der mangler. Selvom tilførslen af nye aktiver er meget høj, tyder meget dog på, at dette ingenlunde er nok. Det er dog vores vurdering, at når først aktiverne er der, så kommer der gang i transaktionerne.

Niels Brocks Gade 1 er et af mange nye hotelprojekter, der aktuelt bliver udviklet i København. Investoren er AB Balder, og hotellet vil blive drevet af den svenske kæde Nobis Hotel.

HOTEL PIPELINE I KØBENHAVN HOTEL

CLASS

NO. OF ROOMS

OPENING YEAR

Zleep Copenhagen Airport - expansion

Budget

17

2016

Hotel Moxy

Budget

217

2017

Scandic Kødbyen

Medium

370

2018

Nobis Hotel

High

80

2017

Arp-Hansen Hostel

Budget

250

2017

Charlottehaven*

Medium

37

2018

Cabinn Metro - expansion*

Budget

530

2017

Radisson Blu - expansion

Medium/High

280

2017/2018

Scandic Falconer Centre

Medium

134

2018

Avenue Hotel - expansion

Medium

12

TBA

Hotel Skt. Petri - expansion

High

30

TBA

Nimb Hotel - expansion

High

min. 20

TBA

*Hotel apartments

FOCUS

MACROECONOMICS

INVESTMENT  MARKET

OCCUPIER MARKET

APPENDIX

ISSUE II 2016 31 / 31


THE CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD AND RED ALLIANCE RED Property Advisers and Cushman & Wakefield are proud to announce that the succesful cooperation will continue after the merger of Cushman & Wakefield and DTZ. Cushman & Wakefield are strengthened on a worldwide basis, and are now the world’s second largest adviser within commercial real estate with 43,000 employees in more than 60 countries.

RED Property Advisers P/S Amaliegade 3, 5th floor DK-1256 Copenhagen K +45 33 13 13 99 red@red.dk red.dk

MDE, Chartered Surveyors MRICS

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Market Report 2016 Issue II  

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