ast week, the Federal Reserve reduced the Federal Funds rate for the first time in over ten years, a sharp reversal from their stance of only five months ago. This was immediately followed by the escalation of the trade war with China by the Trump administration. The escalation should result in another rate cut in the next 30-60 days, a slowdown in the global economy and an increase in the inflation rate. While all of that was happening, the German equivalent to U.S Treasuries posted negative returns or yields across all time periods. This means that whether you bought a 1 year note or a 30 year bond, it cost you money to buy and hold that investment portfolio. You do not earn interest, you pay for the right to hold it. According to CNBC, there are $17 trillion in bonds outstanding that yield a negative interest rate. The concept of negative interest rates is enough to make the heads of many economists explode as the idea seems to counter logic. When interest rates go lower, it typically serves to stimulate economic activity. Lower interest rates act like sugar as it hypes up the economy. As we all know, too much sugar can lead to obesity. The economic equivalent is asset bubbles like that of 10 years ago.
THE ILLOGICAL WORLD OF NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES
What happens when your parents aka the Central Bank keeps the economy hyped up on sugar? Surprisingly, some good things. Due to regular access to sugar or cheap money, moonshot, world-changing ideas have the time and money to roll out ideas that once seemed impossible. The extra time is due to the low cost of borrowing which also tends to spur capital investment. Whether it is Amazon, Tesla, Uber, Beyond Meat, the Impossible Burger or any one of the many world changing companies, access to enough cash funded the creation of businesses that served to disrupt the status quo. Meanwhile, low borrowing costs and a very friendly European Union Central Bank have kept Italy out of a financial mess akin to Greece. This mindbender presents us with the concept of deflation. Deflation is where the
DALE GRIBOW ON THE LAW
prices of things continue to go lower and lower. China has been a great exporter of deflation for years which has helped to create lower prices than would have otherwise been possible. With the Trump administration’s surprisingly resolute stance against China for a host of illegal activities, trade/tariff issues almost seem like a ruse to expedite an economic strike on against China given their bad actor behaviors that we have ignored for decades. Where that all sounds barely understandable, what does this mean for you and me? We can expect lower borrowing costs for some time to come. This also means lower savings rates. It sounds illogical but borrowers are essentially being subsidized by savers due to the current monetary policies of world central banks. The message is clear – the government wants you to go out and over-stimulate the economy because if we don’t, the rest of the world will do it without us[HL1] . That is the message being sent by the Central bankers of Japan and the Economic Union in response to currency manipulation from China and the tariff battle with the United States. Easy money spurs innovation which leads
to greater prosperity. At the same time, it also funds greater excesses which are ultimately the cause of all economic recessions. While we may be in the first months of an economic slowdown, we can expect it to be mild given the easy money policies of the Central Banks. The canary in the coal mine is a financially shaky Italy or even China. China’s debt equals 3x their Gross Domestic Product (GDP). For comparison, our $22 trillion federal debt equals 1x our GDP. Haddon Libby is the Founder and Managing Partner of the fiduciary-only Winslow Drake Investment Management. For more information on our services, please visit www.WinslowDrake.com or email Hlibby@ WinslowDrake.com.
LEGAL REPRESENTATION OF THE INJURED & CRIMINALLY ACCUSED
TYPES OF ID THEFT AND WHAT TO DO D theft can be financial fraud, medical ID theft, tax fraud, criminal ID theft, Social Security fraud, child ID theft, benefits and employment fraud and title fraud. Identity theft is becoming more and more common each year. In 2018, hackers stole the personal information of 148 million Americans in a single breach. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, there are 74 robberies every hour in the United States but nearly 2,000 identity theft events. It’s not a matter of if, but rather “when”. If your information has ever been compromised in a breach, you are eleven times more likely to be a victim of identity theft. Thieves can steal more than just your money. I suggest you don’t sign the back of your credit cards. I WRITE ‘PHOTO ID REQUIRED.’ DON’T put the complete account number on the ‘For’ line when you write a check. Instead, just put the last four numbers, as the card company knows the rest of the number. Put your work, not home, phone # on your checks or your PO Box and work address and never your SS#. Consider copying both sides of your wallets contents. That way you have the account and phone numbers to call to cancel ...if necessary. Our family also carries a photocopy of our passports when we travel. To limit damage cancel credit cards immediately with the toll free numbers and your card numbers you have. File a police report which proves to credit providers you
August 8 to August 14, 2019
were diligent, and this is a first step toward an investigation (if there ever is one). But here’s what is perhaps most important of all: Call the 3 national credit reporting organizations immediately to place a fraud alert on your name and also call the Social Security fraud line number. The alert means any company that checks your credit knows your information was stolen, and they have to contact you by phone to authorize new credit. Keep these numbers in your wallet: Equifax: 1-800-525-6285 Experian (formerly TRW): 1-888-397-3742 Trans Union: 1-800-680-7289 Social Security Administration (fraud line): 1-800-269-0271 To be safer, do as our family does and consider signing up with Charles Jarrot, Century Credit Group Inc. 310 277-1300 to get 24/7 monitoring; alerts of any changes to credit reports; sex offender registry monitoring; bank account opening request notification; lien or public record notifications. Dark Web Surveillance applies when someone writes a negative review of you or your business on the internet. Century Credit Group takes over all the recovery work. Century Identity Guard will take care of all the work to restore your identity, providing true white-glove service by a Certified Recovery Specialist. They monitor your personal information and alert you when changes are detected,
dramatically reducing your risk of becoming a victim Charles Jarrot provides Customer Service 24/7/365 and whether you have a question or need to report an ID theft event, their U.S.based support team is available around the clock for guidance and assistance. We use them because they protect against all types of ID Theft including financial fraud, medical ID theft, tax fraud, criminal ID theft, Social Security fraud, child ID theft, benefits and employment fraud and title fraud. Remember: Silence is Golden and Handcuffs are Silver so DON’T TALK to POLICE without your lawyer’s permission. I look upon my job as protecting the Constitutional Rights of every American who drinks, drives and gets arrested for a DUI or has an ACCIDENT. I do however “Change Hats” when I SUE Drunk Drivers for damages to my Injured or Deceased (Wrongful Death) clients.
DALE GRIBOW - REPRESENTING THE INJURED AND CRIMINALLY ACCUSED “TOP LAWYER” - California’s Prestige Magazine, Palm Springs Life 2011-19 & “TOP LAWYER” - Inland Empire Magazine 20162019 PERFECT 10.0 AVVO Peer Rating “PREEMINENT” Rating - Martindale Hubbell Legal Directory “DON’T DRINK AND DRIVE OR TEXT AND GET A DUI OR ACCIDENT. CALL A TAXI, LYFT OR UBER. THEY ARE A LOT CHEAPER THAN CALLING ME”. SO DRIVE SOBER OR GET PULLED OVER. SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE ARTICLE? CONTACT DALE GRIBOW 760-837-7500/ email@example.com.
Coachella Valley Weekly - August 8 to August 14, 2019 Vol. 8 No. 21