M A R K E T B E AT
BELGIUM REGIONAL Office Q4 2019
YoY Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
Overview According to Oxford Economics, the Belgian economy appears to have slowed in Q4. The deceleration will become more apparent in 2020 as external headwinds take their toll on exports and investment. GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.2% in 2020, from 1.3% in 2019, but the risks are on the downside. Household purchasing power will keep growing while the unemployment rate, despite rising slightly, will remain low.
326K Take-up sq m (YTD)
160 Prime rent, (EUR/sq m/year)
Occupier focus A solid - albeit not highlight - Q4 registered a take-up volume of 87,000 sq m across regional markets – 66,000 sq m in Flanders and 21,000 sq m in Wallonia. The coworking sector was the most dynamic occupier type in Q4 with several forays into the Antwerp and Ghent office markets, while in Wallonia, education and public sector occupiers’ positive influence was keenly felt. Total take-up in 2019 for regional markets was a very strong 327,000 sq m (the second best year so far this century) with 223,000 sq m in Flanders (-24% YoY) and 104,000 sq m in Wallonia (+64% YoY). Of particular note were dynamic levels activity recorded for the year in Ghent, Liège and Charleroi. Prime rental levels in Antwerp and Ghent increased to EUR 160/sq m/year, a level already recorded the year previous in Namur (Wallonia). An increase to a level of EUR 165/sq m/year is forecasted for the Antwerp office market in 2020.
5.50% Prime yield (3/6/9 lease)
ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q4 2019
Investment focus
GDP Growth (2019)
2019 was the second best year of the decade in terms of recorded investment volumes across regional markets. Indeed the total reached EUR 369 million - EUR 327 in Flanders and EUR 42 million in Wallonia (a decade best). Q4 was nevertheless somewhat more subdued with EUR 27 million recorded in total, led by a EUR 15 million acquisition by Belgian REIT WEB in the Liège office market. Renewed investor interest in regional markets, particularly in Flanders, led to a prime yield which has sharpened to 5.50% (-65 bps YoY).
5.4%
Outlook
YoY Chg
1.3%
Belgium Unemployment Rate
1.5%
12-Mo. Forecast
A good deal of projects will arrive onto the market over the coming two- to three years, several of which are launched speculatively – particularly in Ghent and Antwerp; this should attract demanding private sector occupiers. Investment opportunities for prime locations are somewhat limited although the forecast on yields remains stable. TAKE-UP, SQ M
INVESTMENT VOLUME PER REGION, EUR M
Belgium Consumer Price Index
400,000
400
Source: Oxford Economics
300,000
300
200,000
200
100,000
100
0
0 2015
2016
Flanders regional markets
2017
2018
2019
Wallonia regional markets
2015
2016
Flanders regional markets
2017
2018
2019
Wallonia regional markets
M A R K E T B E AT
BELGIUM REGIONAL Office Q4 2019 MARKET STATISTICS REGION
MARKET
BUILT STOCK (SQ M)
AVAILABILITY (SQ M)
VACANCY RATE
Q4 2019 TAKE-UP
YTD TAKE-UP (SQ M)
2020-2022 PIPELINE (SQ M)
PRIME RENT (EUR/SQ M/YEAR)
PRIME YIELD
Antwerp
2,301,000
149,000
6.46%
40,000
125,000
161,000
160
5.50%
Ghent
1,084,000
53,000
4.85%
14,000
60,000
85,000
160
5.50%
Leuven
561,000
n.a.
n.a.
1,600
12,000
27,000
150
6.75%
Mechelen
325,000
n.a.
n.a.
10,000
26,000
29,000
150
7.00%
Liège
459,000
16,000
3.55%
12,000
53,000
124,000
155
6.75%
Namur
519,000
30,000
5.76%
0
21,000
90,000
160
n.a.
Charleroi
440,000
2,500
0.54%
9,000
30,000
34,000
135
n.a.
Flanders
Wallonia
KEY OCCUPIER TRANSACTIONS Q4 2019 PROPERTY Kortrijksesteenweg 302 Fanuc – Old Road Business Park HEC new campus
MARKET
TENANT
SIZE (SQ M)
TRANSACTION TYPE Pre-letting
Ghent
Fosbury & Sons
7,000
Mechelen
Fanuc
5,200
Purchase
Liège
HEC Liège
3,700
Development
Post X
Antwerp
ABN Amro
3,345
Letting
Lange Klarenstraat 19 *Renegotiations not included in leasing statistics
Antwerp
Fosbury & Sons
3,214
Letting
SHANE O’NEILL Senior Research Analyst +32 2 510 08 33 shane.oneill@cushwake.com CÉDRIC VAN MEERBEECK Head of Research & Marketing | Belgium & Luxembourg +32 2 629 02 86 cedric.vanmeerbeeck@cushwake.com
cushmanwakefield.com
KEY SALES TRANSACTIONS Q4 2019 PROPERTY Business Park Alleur Fanuc – Old Road Business Park
SUBMARKET
SELLER / BUYER
SQ M
PRICE, EUR M
Liège
WEB / Hobeco
4,720
15
Mechelen
Fanuc / Resolve
5,200
10
A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global real estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for real estate occupiers and owners. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest real estate services firms with approximately 51,000 employees in 400 offices and 70 countries. In 2018, the firm had revenue of $8.2 billion across core services of property, facilities and project management, leasing, capital markets, valuation and other services.
KEY CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS YTD 2019 PROPERTY DPG Media Belgium head office
SUBMARKET
MAJOR TENANT
SQ M
Antwerp
DPG
23,000
OWNER / DEVELOPER DPG Media
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