M A R K E T B E AT
BELGIUM Industrial Q1 2020 QoQ Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
75 (L) 151 (SI) Take-up (YTD) (000s sq m)
Overview The spread of coronavirus in Europe and the containment measures imposed in Belgium should result in a severe decline in GDP growth for the first half of the year. Little economic data since the outbreak is available yet, so assessing the impact of the lockdown remains very challenging. Its consequences on the labour market, however, is considerable. Unemployment is expected to soar, but includes mainly economic unemployment due to the virus. Furthermore, both consumer and business confidence are down. The negative economic outlook is expected to be sharp but short.
58 (L) 63 (SI)
Occupier focus
Prime rent, (EUR/sq m/year)
Semi-industrial activity was logically at a very subdued level in Q1 2020 (151,000 sq m), on the back of a record quarter at the end of 2019. A particularly slow start to the year with 75,000 sq m in logistics take-up comes in stark – albeit – unsurprising contrast with one of the best ever quarters recorded in Q4 2019 (446,000 sq m). Almost 60% of take-up was directed towards Flanders with Brussels and Wallonia equally sharing the rest. No particularly large deals took place – the largest was an 18,000 sq m letting in Willebroek. As a result, the average size of deals dropped to 6,300 sq m.
5.00 (L) 6.80 (SI) Prime yield (%, 3/6/9 lease) L: logistics SI: semi-industrial
Investment focus
ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q1 2020 YoY Chg
-2.14% GDP Growth (2020)
-7.36%
12-Mo. Forecast
A handful of semi-industrial investments took place to total EUR 37 million in Q1, including a EUR 13 million purchase for a reconversion by Jeni in Antwerp. Only two logistics transactions were recorded in Q1, including only one with a communicated price - EUR 5 million. As is the case with the occupier market, it is reasonable to expect growth in demand for logistics assets, particularly from international players in the current climate.
Outlook The short-term outlook is as bleak for semi-industrial and logistics as for other sectors, mainly on the occupier front. H2 will be a crucial time with all eyes on the market expecting the first signs of a strong post-COVID-19 rebound. Investment-wise, demand will remain strong, especially for well-located assets linked to key sectors such as e-commerce and medical supplies.
GVA growth Manufacturing, transportation & storage
-0.6%
INVESTMENT VOLUME PER TYPE, EUR M
TAKE-UP, SQ M 2,500,000
500
2,000,000
400
1,500,000
300
1,000,000
200
500,000
100
Industrial production Source: Oxford Economics
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
0
0 2016
2017 Logistics
2018 Semi-industrial
2019
Q1 2020
2016
2017 Logistics
2018 Semi-industrial
2019
Q1 2020 # deals (RHS)
M A R K E T B E AT
BELGIUM Industrial Q4 2019 MARKET STATISTICS
REGION
BUILT STOCK (SQ M)
Q1 2020 TAKE-UP (SQ M)
PRIME RENT (EUR/SQ M/YEAR)
PRIME YIELD (%)
Flanders
18,902,000 (L) 8,911,000 (SI)
44,000 (L) 95,000 (SI)
48 (L) 57 (SI)
5.00 (L) 6.80 (SI)
Brussels (incl. Brabants)
2,270,000 (L) 3,066,000 (SI)
17,000 (L) 35,000 (SI)
58 (L) 63 (SI)
5.00 (L) 6.80 (SI)
Wallonia
3,440,000 (L) 2,290,000 (SI)
14,000 (L) 20,000 (SI)
45 (L) 45 (SI)
6.00 (L) 7.50 (SI)
L: logistics SI: semi-industrial
KEY OCCUPIER TRANSACTIONS Q1 2020 PROPERTY
BUILDING TYPE
Prologis Industrial Park
Logistics
Avenue Centrale Z.I. 9004
Logistics
Willy Naessens Alu Oudenaarde
Semi-industrial
Frame 21 bis Distrilog Geel extension
MARKET
TENANT
SIZE (SQ M)
TRANSACTION TYPE
Mechelen-Willebroek
Euro Pools
18,000
Letting
Hainaut
Univercells
12,000
Purchase
East Flanders
Willy Naessens Alu
10,000
Development
Logistics
Kempen
Remy Automotive Europe
9,000
Letting
Logistics
Kempen
Distrilog
8,000
Pre-letting
*Renegotiations not included in leasing statistics
KEY INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS Q1 2020 PROPERTY Struik Foods site Canopea (Parc Jaurdinia) (project) Pharma Belgium DC
SUBMARKET
BUYER / SELLER
SQ M
PRICE, EUR M
Antwerp
Jeni / Familie Van Drie
35,000
13
Walloon Brabat
BVI.BE / AXA REIM
40,000
10
Hainaut
WEB / Boucquillon
4,600
5
SHANE O’NEILL Senior Research Analyst +32 2 510 08 33 shane.oneill@cushwake.com CÉDRIC VAN MEERBEECK Head of Research & Marketing | Belgium & Luxembourg +32 2 629 02 86 cedric.vanmeerbeeck@cushwake.com A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION ©2020 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy.
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