Residential Value Uplift A number of excitable headlines have boasted about the “Crossrail effect” – property prices shooting sharply up as a direct result of the investment in London’s infrastructure. But is all this price growth due to Crossrail? If there is a Crossrail effect, can we use it to predict future uplift from other transport projects? Estimates for value uplift due to Crossrail vary wildly from source to source and station to station. One distressingly common factor in a lot of these studies, however, is the lack of a proper control. Without comparing the affected station areas to a sensible benchmark, it’s impossible to tell how much of this growth is due to Crossrail. To date, we’ve seen studies comparing growth around stations to growth in Greater London, the wider South East, or even the national average – hardly a relevant comparison! In our recent study with KPMG for TfL, we looked at price growth around stations on four
London transport projects: Crossrail, the Jubilee Line Extension, the North London Line refranchise, and the DLR extension to Woolwich Arsenal. For each of these areas, we compared house price movements within 500 metres of each station to areas between 1km and 2km away. This was to ensure that for whatever station we were looking at, our benchmark had similar characteristics – other than distance from the station. We compared house price movements in these areas during the year before construction on
Lawrence Bowles Research Analyst, Savills. Residential Research and Consultancy Gonville & Caius, 2009 – 2013.
The Case Study Projects Jubilee Line Extension: New tunnel and stations linking Stratford to Westminster via Canary Wharf and London Bridge. Works began in 1990; the line opened in 1999 (during construction uplift is limited to the final three years of construction). DLR Extension to Woolwich Arsenal: New tunnel beneath the River Thames linking the Royal Docks to Woolwich. Tunnelling started in 2006 and the station opened in 2009. North London Line: Refranchising of existing services across north London. Improvements included upgraded trains, more frequent services, and incorporation into the London Overground network. The most significant line upgrade work took place in 2010-11. Crossrail: New underground rail line linking Shenfield in the east to Reading in the west via Liverpool Street, Tottenham Court Road, and Paddington. Includes construction of eight new stations and upgrades to other existing stations. The Crossrail Hybrid Bill passed through Parliament
Figure 1 - We compared growth within 500m of the station (red) to 1-2km away (blue). Source: Ordinance Survey.
Cambridge University Land Society