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Justice Reinvestment: The Challenges Ahead Dr. Tony Fabelo

Austin, Texas Texas Association of Counties, August 2007 1


POLICIES MAIN DRIVER OF DEMAND FOR PRISON BEDS JUSTICE REINVESTMENT POLICIES MAY REDUCE DEMAND CHALLENGE IS TO IMPLEMENT AND SUSTAIN PROGRAM INFRASTRUCTURE

2


Projected Prison Bed Shortfall at Beginning of Legislative Session in January 2007 Projected TDCJ Population and Capacity 2007-2012, January 2007 LBB Projection

170,000

Population

165,000

168,166 164,592

162,298 159,492

160,000 155,000

13,758

157,029 153,849 6,195

11,464

17,332 Bed Shortfall 26% Parole Rate

8,658

3,015

150,000

Operational Capacity

150,834

145,000

150,834

140,000 2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: Legislative Budget Board, June 06 and January 07, Adult and Juvenile Correctional Population Projections

2011

2012

3


Prison Population Expansion Has Outpaced State Population Growth

TDCJ Population, 1985-2006 180,000

691

160,000 140,000

152,894 TDCJ Population

120,000 100,000 80,000

Incarceration Rate per 100,000

60,000

226

40,000 20,000

37,281

State Resident Population 1980-2005: +61% TDCJ Population 1985-2006: +310% Incarceration Rate 1985-2006: +205%

0 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Sources: CJPC tables 1985-1998; LBB tables, 1998 to 2006

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Prison System Operating with Critical Correctional Officer Shortages Correctional Officers Approved Positions

26,311

Positions Filled as of July 2007

22,647

Vacancies

3,664 (14%)

32 prison units operating with higher than average vacancy rates

Source: LBB data sheets, July 07

Overtime produces the equivalent of about 600 FTEs annually

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Correctional Officer Vacancies Have Increased with the Expansion of the TDCJ Population TDCJ Population

Vacancies

154,000

4,000

152,000

3,500

150,000

3,000

148,000

2,500

146,000

2,000

144,000

1,500

142,000

1,000

140,000

500

138,000

0 Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. July 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

3% vacancy rate

14% vacancy rate 6

Source: LBB data sheets, July 07


Policies Are Main Driver of Prison Population Growth

Low parole rates

Shortage of probation and parole alternative sanctions and prison treatment programs Drug Addicts

Mentally Ill Persons

Unemployed Persons

Poor service delivery systems for prevention and re-entry services and failing schools in high stakes neighborhoods

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Low Parole Approval Rates a Key Policy Driving Growth

88,000 inmates are eligible for discretionary release in prison or 66% of the prison population

Parole Approval Rates, 1990-2006

78% “Revolving Door”

55% of those eligible have a “non-violent” offense of record 31% Minimum under Guidelines

17%

26%

20 06

20 04

20 02

20 00

19 98

19 96

19 94

“Shut Down”

19 92

19 90

90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

8


Lack of Probation Alternative Programs to Reduce Revocation Another Key Factor

Parole Revocations

Probation Revocations

19%

Technical

9%

54%

New Conviction New Offense Pending or Alleged

72%

ISF Beds = 1,793 1 per 42 parolees

18%

28%

ISF Beds = 439 1 per 544 probationers

Source: Board of Pardons and Parole Annual Report; TDCJ, CJAD Statistical tables

9


50% of Former Prisoners Return to Neighborhoods That Account for Only 15% of the City’s Adult Population

Acres Homes

Trinity Houston Gardens

East Little York Homestead

Ten of Houston’s 88 Neighborhoods Account for Almost $100 million a Year in Prison Expenditures

El Dorado Oates Prairie

Kashmere Area Greater Fifth Ward

OST - South Union

Sunnyside

South Acres – Crestmont Park

South Park

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POLICIES MAIN DRIVER OF DEMAND FOR PRISON BEDS JUSTICE REINVESTMENT POLICIES MAY REDUCE DEMAND CHALLENGE IS TO IMPLEMENT AND SUSTAIN PROGRAM INFRASTRUCTURE

11


Whitmire/Madden Plan Adds Capacity to Alternative Sanction System

12


Program and Alternative Capacity (cont.) Probation Programs

Institutional Programs

Parole & Re-entry Programs

13


Cost of Plan in Comparison with Original TDCJ Request TDCJ Request

Whitmire/Madden Plan

14


Overall Plan Produced Savings of Millions of Dollars TDCJ Request

Whitmire/Madden Plan

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Additional Attempt at Addressing Early Interventions with New Resources SB 156 by Shapiro and Madden $5.8 million in FY 09 to intervene with 2,000 families in high risk neighborhoods

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Plan Eliminates Backlog Assuming Effective Implementation Projected Prison Backlog Under Different Policy Scenarios, LBB Projections

Status Quo, January Projection

17,332 13,758

15,000 11,464

10,405

8,658

10,000 6,195

5,000

Adopted Whitmire/Madden Plan

4,415 1,168

8,399

8,145 6,300

TDCJ Request for Appropriations Scenario

0

0

0

0

2009

2010

2011

2012

0 2008 Source: Legislative Budget Board

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POLICIES MAIN DRIVER OF DEMAND FOR PRISON BEDS JUSTICE REINVESTMENT POLICIES MAY REDUCE DEMAND CHALLENGE IS TO IMPLEMENT AND SUSTAIN PROGRAM INFRASTRUCTURE

18


Need Strategy to Promote Program Effectiveness Oversight to Identify Infrastructure Weaknesses

Invest in Strengthening Program Development and Accountability

Explosion of Program Resources Quickly Measure Early Effectiveness Indicators

Hold Administrator Accountable for Best Practices

Target Funding Enhancements in Key Program Areas 19


Challenge of Program Implementation in a Nutshell 1. Program protocols effectively identify “swingers”

2. Program protocols effectively mix “treatment” “control” and “incentives”

Some Do OK Some “Swingers” Some NOT Do OK “No Matter What” “It Matters What” “No Matter What” May Do OK

3. Program infrastructure and staff meets quality indicators

May Not Do OK

4. Community collaboration and partners reduce barriers to success 20


Travis County Probation Reform http://www.co.travis.tx.us/community_supervision/TCIS_Initiative.asp

21


Two Year Methodical Reform Process

“Conditions of Supervision”

“Differential Supervision” (Based on Classification Profiles)

Diagnosis (Pre-sentenced or intake)

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Thank You www.justicecenter.csg.org

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tcafinal81607  
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