CrisisReady 2022 Annual Report

Notefromthe Directors

CarolineO’FlahertyBuckee

Co-Director,CrisisReady

ProfessorofEpidemiology,HarvardT.H.ChanSchoolofPublicHealth; AssociateDirector,CenterforCommunicableDiseaseDynamics

SatchitBalsari

Co-Director,CrisisReady

AssistantProfessorofEmergencyMedicine,HarvardMedicalSchool; EmergencyClinician,BethIsraelDeaconessMedicalCenter

AndrewSchroeder

Co-Director,CrisisReady

VicePresidentofResearchandAnalysis,DirectRelief

Greetings!

WeareverypleasedtoshareCrisisReady’sfrst annualreportwithyou.Thereporthighlightsour workoverthelastacademicyear,betweenJune 2021andJune2022.

CrisisReadyevolvedfromtheCOVID-19Mobility DataNetwork,acollaborationofscientists, policymakers,andtechnologycompaniesthatjointly volunteeredtoadvancedata-drivendecisionmaking duringtheCOVID-19pandemic.Sincethen,the platformhasexpandeditsfocustoarangeofcrises facingourworldtoday,fromwildfresinCalifornia, hurricanesintheSouthernUnitedStates,tothe refugeecrisisresultingfromthewarinUkraine.Our teamincludesresearchersfromHarvardUniversity andDirectRelief,anddatascientistsinLatin AmericaandAsiawhoaresupportedbyourseed grants.

Researchandoperationsareorganizedaround CrisisReady’s Data-Methods-Translational Readiness framework,whichbringstogetherkey issuesregardingthepreparationofnoveldatafor timelyuse,themeaningfulapplicationofthesedata, andthenurturingoflocalcapacitiestorevieveand act-onanalyses.

Wehavehadaveryproductivefrstyear,making signifcantstridesinprocuringmoredata,growing ourregionalhubs,advancingmethodstoaddress uncertainty,privacy,bias,interoperability,and usabilityofnoveldatastreams,andpartneringwith policymakersaroundtheworldtoputouranalysis touse.ThesectionsofthisreportonSituation Reports,wildfres,andtheUkrainewarsummarize CrisisReady’sworkinthescopeoftranslational readiness.

Ourreport“TheUseofHumanMobilityDatain PublicHealthEmergencies”,releasedinApril2022, wastheculminationofayear-longconsultative processacrossacademia,industry,law,and humanitarianagenciestoaddresshowtouse humanmobilitydata

inasafe,secure,andresponsiblemanner.We continuetoleadtheinternationaldialogueonthe useofmobilephonedataforpublichealth emergencies,chairingaNationalAcademiesof Sciences workinggroup onthistopic.In collaborationwiththeWorldEconomicForum,we areplanningaseriesofdomesticandinternational eventsintheFallof2022.

2022alsosawtheexpansionofengagementand emergencyresponsetrainingtoMexico,Colombia, andHungary,whereweworkedwithlocalscientists, NGOs,andgovernmentofcialsinregional workshopstoapplyourmethodsandanalysisto addresslocalepidemiologicalandhumanitarian needs.Theseworkshopsmarkthebeginningofa globally-distributednetworkofpractitionersthatwill usetheCrisisReadyframeworktoaddressthe contextualchallengesoftheregionstheyrepresent.

Wethankourteam,ourcollaborators,andour donorswhohavesogenerouslysupportedus.Our workissupportedbygrantsfromtheHarvardData ScienceInitiative,SchmidtFutures,Meta,and Google.org

Sincerely,

CarolineBuckee, SatchitBalsari,AndrewSchroeder August2022

Mission

CrisisReadyisaresearchresponseplatformat HarvardT.H.ChanSchoolofPublicHealthand DirectReliefthatadvancesdata-drivendecision makinginemergencyresponse.Asa multifunctionalresponseorganization, CrisisReadyprovidessolutionsthatbridgethe technical,regulatory,andtranslationalgapsthat hindertheintegrationofnoveldataintothefeld. Theplatformfeaturesdataproducts,repositories, andtoolsdevelopedwithinterdisciplinary researchteamsworldwide.

Ourteamdevelopsscalableexpertisein Data Readiness,MethodsReadiness,andTranslational Readiness, threeconceptsthatextend throughoutCrisisReady’sbodyofwork,by providingactionableanalysesthathelp policymakersandagenciesmakedecisionson thedeploymentofmaterialaidandpersonnel duringemergencyevents.

CrisisReady’snetworkofcollaborators,which consistsofworld-classresearchersatHarvard University,technologycompanies,government agencies,andtheglobalCommunityofPractice, ensuresthatstakeholdersinformourcollective missiontosupportequitablefeldresponse aroundtheworld.

TheteamatCrisisReadyidentifesandanalyzes large-scaledatarequiredtorespondtodisasters sothattimelyaccesscanbepre-negotiated amongdatabrokersandresponseagencies. Throughtheseeforts,theplatformensuresthat accessisappropriatelynegotiatedbetweenthe companieswhoclaimownershipofdata,the communitiesfromwhichthedataaregenerated, andtheresearchersandpolicymakerswhouse thedataforpublicgood.

Responding toCrises

Theubiquityofmobilephonesandinternetconnecteddeviceshasgeneratedenormous amountsofdataonindividualandgroupmobility patterns.Thesedatahavehelpedresearchersand responseagenciesestimatepopulationmovement patternstoinformepidemiologicalmodeling, situationalawareness,andresourceallocation duringemergencyevents.

Howpeoplemove,when,andwhere,in anticipationofdisasters,duringcrises,orintheir aftermath,hasadirectbearingontheirwellbeing andsafety.Informationonpopulationmovement canprovidecriticalinformationtotheagencies responsibleforpreparedness,rescue,recovery, andrehabilitation.Alongwithlongertemporal scales,thesedatacanalsoprovideinformationon transient,seasonal,andpermanentmigration patterns.

Recentexperiencesfromemergencyeventshave exposedtheinadequaciesofpreparednessand responseacrosstheglobe.Thisposesa considerablechallengegivennaturaldisasters relatedtoclimatechangeareexpectedtoincrease infrequencyandseverityinthecomingyears. Studieshaveconsistentlyshownthattheindirect efectsofthesedisastersdisproportionatelyafect poor,elderly,andstructurallydisadvantaged populations.

Astheincidenceoftheseemergenciesincreases,it isofchiefimportancetoensurethatresponseis abletomeettheneedsofthevulnerable communitiesimpactedbythem.

Anothercriticalchallengeisthatthelarge-scale streamsofdataneededduringthesedisastersvary inorigin,representativeness,temporalscales,and spatialgranularity.Thismakesitdifcultfor responseteams,whichmayhavelimitedresources attheirdisposal,tocollateandtranslatethesedata andmethodsintoimprovedresponse.

CrisisReady’ssituationreportsaimtosolvethese challengesbyadvancingtheframeworksfor standardizedanalysis,meaningfulinterpretation, andcontinuousintegrationofuseful,butdisparate, datastreams.Combiningmobilitydatawith informationonlocalhealthcareinfrastructuresand vulnerablepopulations,thesereportshelp governmentalbodies—whetherfederal,state, local,orforeign—makedecisionsaboutthe deploymentandallocationofmaterialaid, personnel,andotherresourcesthroughoutan emergencyevent.

Reportingon DisastersAround theWorld

08-14— 08-22

Reportson earthquakeinNippes,Haiti

07-15—07-16

Reports on foodsinWestern Germany

08-14— 08-22

Reports onDixieFireinPlumasCounty, California,U.S.

08-04—08-09

Reports onfresinAcharnes,Greece

09-06—09-07

ReportsonCaldorFireinElDoradoCountry, California,U.S.

08-26—09-08

ReportsonHurricaneIda,NewOrleansParish, Louisiana,U.S.

04-06 —Present

Interactivedashboardshowingpopulationdensitychanges inBulgaria,Czechia,Hungary,Moldova,Poland,Romania, andSlovakiagoeslive

12-11— 12-14

Reportsonlong-tracktornadoin WesternKentucky,U.S.

02-03

ReportsonWinterStormLandon, Texas,U.S.

02-26—03-26

ReportsonpopulationdensitychangesinHungary, Poland,Romania,SlovakiaduringtheUkraineWar

03-07

Firstiterationofinteractivemapshowing populationdensitychangesalongtheWestern borderofUkrainegoeslive

12-30— 01-05

ReportsonMarshall Fire, BoulderCounty,Colorado,U.S.

02-03—02-04

Reportson WinterStormLandon, SouthCentral—Mid-Atlanticregions,U.S.

Analyzingthe Displacementof UkrainianRefugees

AsapartofCrisisReady’songoingeforttosharerelevantdataandinsightsduringthewarinUkraine,our researchteampublishedreportsshowingfuctuationsinpopulationdensitiesalongtheWesternborderofthe country,wheredisplacementwasmostsignifcant.Ourdigitaltools,whichincludesituationmapsand interactivedashboards,providelarge-scalemobilityinformationfromBulgaria,Czechia,Poland,Hungary, Moldova,Romania,andSlovakia,allofwhichhavebeenthehighestreceiversofUkrainianrefugeessince RussiainvadedthecountryonFebruary14,2021.Thesetoolshelpedshedlightonthedisplacement dynamicsandchangingdispersalpatternsduringtheUkraineWar,andinturnhelpedaidoperationskeep pacewiththeevolvingneedsofdisplacedpopulations.

Thesemapsarebestusedasa“signal”ofpopulationchangesassociatedwiththewar.Theirroleistohelp augmentoradd-toexistingoperationalupdates,conversations,andhumanitarianinformationproducts.They haveproventobesignifcantresourcesforinternationalhumanitarianorganizations,suchastheUnited NationsHighCommissionerforRefugees(UNHCR),theInternationalFederationofRedCrossandRed CrescentSocieties(IFRC),andtheInternationalRescueCommittee(IRC),amongothers.

February26,2022

Thisreportshowschangesinpopulationdensities alongtheUkraine-Polandbordertwodaysafterthe Russianinvasionbegan.

Thereportshowsnotableincreasesinpopulation densitiesneartheEasternborderofPoland,especially nearrefugeereceptionpoints.

NotabledecreasesareseenaroundLviv,thelargest cityinWesternUkraineandtheseventhmostpopulous cityinthecountry.

Reddots representdecreasedratesofchangein populationdensitiescomparedtobaselinevalues.

Greendots representincreasedratesofchangein populationdensitiescomparedtobaselinevalues.

Saturationlevelscorrelatewithbaselinedensityvalues (highersaturation=higherdensity).

February26,2022

Thisreporthighlightsmobilitytrendsandmovement directionsalongtheUkraine-Polandbordertwodays aftertheRussianinvasionbegan.

Healthsites,bordercheckpoints,andrefugeereception pointsaremarkedonthemap,whichprovidecontext tothedirectionalpatternsofmovementshown.

Darkgreen trendlinesrepresentaz-scorewitha standarddeviationof1.7—4.0frombaseline populationdata.

Lightgreen trendlinesrepresentaz-scorewitha standarddeviationof0.0010—1.6frombaseline populationdata.

Yellow trendlinesrepresentaz-scorewithastandard deviationof-2.0—0.0frombaselinepopulationdata.

Brown trendlinesrepresentaz-scorewithastandard deviationof-4.0—-2.1frombaselinepopulationdata.

Interpretation

FromFebruary25toMarch26,2022,CrisisReadygenerated52mapsusinganonymizedandaggregatedMeta (Facebook)data.Themapsindicatewhetherpeoplewereleavingorenteringaspecifclocationatthetimeof analysis.

ChangesinpopulationdensitiesweredeterminedusingtheMann-Kendalltest,overatimeseriesof%population diferencecomparedtopre-crisislevels.Tile-leveldatapresentedinthesemapsareaggregatedtolevel2 administrativeunits.Thisisnotnecessarilyindicativeofspecifcforceddisplacement,butlikelyoneofthefollowing scenariosfromourremoteanalyses.

•Seasonalchanges

•Fluctuationsinthegeneralpopulation

•ChangesinpopulationthatmayberelatedtodisplacedpeoplefromUkraine

March26,2022

ThisreportshowspopulationdensitychangesinHungary betweenMarch20,2022andMarch26,2022.

IncreasesinHungary’spopulationdensitiesbecameless notableduringthisperiod,exceptforareasinthe TransdanubiaregionnearBudapestandtheLakeofBalatan. Inpreviousreports,Budapestandsurroundingareasshowed notabledecreasesinpopulationmobilityanddensity.

March26,2022

ThisreportshowspopulationdensitychangesinPoland betweenMarch20,2022andMarch26,2022.

IncreasesinPoland’spopulationdensitiesbecameless prominentduringthisperiodcomparedtopreviousreports, whichshowedincreaseddensitiesinsouthernregions borderingCzechiaandSlovakia.Thissuggestedthat populationmovementwasdifusingacrossthecountry.

March26,2022

ThisreportshowspopulationdensitychangesinRomania betweenMarch20,2022andMarch26,2022.

ManytownsnearBucharestandtheRomania-Bulgaria bordershowedincreasedpopulationdensitiesduringthis period.Thissuggestedthatmovementpatternsweremoving south,comparedtopreviousreportsthatshowedincreasing densitiesaroundthecenterofcountry,nearTransylvania, Argeș,andPrahovacounties.

March26,2022

ThisreportshowspopulationdensitychangesinSlovakia betweenMarch20,2022andMarch26,2022.

Manyregionsthroughoutthecountrydidnotshownotable increasedordecreasedpopulationdensitiesduringthis period,exceptfortheBratislavaRegion,locatedinthewest neartheSlovakia-Austriaborder.

Darkgreen regions represent signifcantincreasedratesofchange inpopulationdensitiescomparedtobaselinevalues.

Lightgreen regions represent notableincreasedratesofchange inpopulationdensitiescomparedtobaselinevalues.

Grayregions represent verylittleornoratesofchange inpopulationdensitiescomparedtobaselinevalues.

Yellow regions represent moderatedecreasedratesofchange inpopulationdensitiescomparedtobaselinevalues.

Brown regions represent notabledecreasedratesofchange inpopulationdensitiescomparedtobaselinevalues.

CrisisReady,incollaborationwithQlik,developedaninteractivedashboardtoanalyzepopulationdensitychanges inBulgaria,Czechia,Poland,Hungary,Moldova,Romania,andSlovakiaoverseven-dayperiodsduringthewarin Ukraine.Populationdensitychangesaredeterminedbythedateofacquisitioncomparedto90-daypopulation averagescalculatedpriortodatacollectioninMarch2020.

Userscanexplorethedataatvariousgeographiclevelswithgraphsthatshowpatternsofchangeovertime.Two mapviews(shownbelow)canbeexploredbychangingthegeographicfocus(country,adminlevel)onthetopbar, orbyclickingonthespecifcareaofinterest.

Hotspots,orareasofinterest,arevisualizedusingthefollowingcolors:

Lowlevels ofpopulationdensitychangeareshownin brown,whichsignifyasmall,butconsistent decrease in populationdensityintheseregions.

Highlevels ofpopulationdensitychangesareshownin cyan,whichindicatesasmall,butconsistent increase in populationdensitiesintheseregions.

ThemapsaboveprovideanalysesofpopulationdensitychangesinBulgaria,Czechia,Poland,Hungary,Moldova, Romania,andSlovakiafrom May14toMay20,2022.

Bothmapsprovideinformationonrefugeereceptionpoints,bordercrossingcheckpoints,andregionaldata.Border checkpointdatawasobtainedfromtheHumanitarianDataExchange(HDX),refugeereceptionpointdatawasobtained fromtheGovernmentofPoland,andregionaldatawasobtainedfromtheEuropeanCommissionusingNUTS-3 administrativeunits.

Thesetilesarelocatedbelowthetwomapsonthedashboard.Theboxesranktheregionsdisplayedonthemapbythe strengthofchangeinpopulationdensityduringaspecifedtimeperiod.

Theimagestotheleft showthedashboard viewofPoland,which displaystrendsin populationdensity changesfrom May 14-20,2022.

Theboxesbelow providemoregranular dataontheregions displayedinthe precedingmaps.

Thisisthedisplayofthe predictedtrendlineof populationdensity changesinthe Mazowieckie(Masovian Voivodeship)provinceof PolandfromMay9to May29,2022.Warsaw, thecapitalcityof Poland,islocatedinthe Mazowieckieprovince.

Note: AsofMay20,2022,updatestotheinteractivedashboardhavebeenpaused.Periodicupdateswillresumewheningestionofnewpopulation densitydataisavailablefromourcorepartner,MetaDataforGood.

Respondingto WildfresinCalifornia

Disastersinthe21stcenturyhaveresultedinpersistentincreasesinmorbidityandmortalitylongafterthe acuteeventhaspassed.IntheUnitedStates,wildfresandhurricanestypicallyresultinpoweroutagesand evacuations,disruptingaccesstowages,healthcare,foodsecurity,andstablehousing–sometimesfor extendedperiodsoftime.

Inordertoprotectmedicallyvulnerablepopulationsthroughthedeploymentofmaterialresourcesand personnel,responseagenciesandhealthsystemsneedtoknowwhoismoving,whentheyaremoving,and wheretheyaremoving.Astheincidenceofthesecrisesbecomesgreater,itisimportanttoensurethat emergencypreparednessandresponseefortsmeettheneedsofthemedicallyvulnerableandsocially disadvantagedindividualsmostimpactedbythem.

ImageCredit:JoshEdelson/AFPviaGettyImages

OptimizingResponseWithNovelDataSystems

CrisisReadyhasdevelopedReadyMapper,adecisionsupportsystemforhealthsystemresiliencethatpresents informationneededtooptimizeresourceallocationduringdisastersfromnovel,butdisparate,datastreams.The toolistheoutcomeofathree-yearcollaborativeefortbetweentheCrisisReadyteamandpublichealthand responseagencies,hospitalsandhealthsystems,andhealthofcialsacrossCalifornia.Ourtechnicalpartners includeStamenDesign.

Thetoolcombinesdataoncommunitydemographics,vulnerabilities,infrastructure,andmobilitytotrackevolving medicalneedsaspopulationsevacuateandmoveelsewhereduringanemergency.

Vulnerability

ReadyMapper’sfrstvantagepointpresents dataonpopulationvulnerabilities,which canbedefnedinmultipleandoften intersectingways.

Here,datarefectingthenumberof individualsover65yearsoldrepresents severaltypesofvulnerabilities,suchasthe needformedicalcare,foodsecurity, assistancewithmobility,andaccessto durablemedicalequipment.

DixieFire, July13-October25,2021

Thereareothercompositeindicestaken intoaccount,includingtheHealthyPlaces Index(HPI)publishedbythePublicHealth AllianceofSouthernCaliforniaandthe SocialVulnerabilityindexpublishedbythe CentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention (CDC)andtheAgencyforToxicSubstances andDiseaseRegistry(ATSDR).Immigration statusandlanguagebarriersareadditional vulnerabilitiesconsideredintheseanalyses.

PopulationMovement

Thetool’ssecondvantagepointpresents dataonhumanmobilityandmovement patternsduringanemergencyevent.These dataprovideinformationaboutwhere communitiesareevacuatingfrom,where theyaregoing,andwhentheyaremoving.

Thepatternsthesedatahighlighthave importantimplicationsforresource allocationandtheanticipationofpatient needsatmedicalfacilitiesduring(orafter) evacuationactivities.Theyalsoprovide importantinformationforresponse agenciestounderstandwhichareaspeople shouldmovetowardstoensuretheirsafety.

Thesevisualizationsaregeneratedfrom aggregatedandanonymizeddatamade availablebyMeta(formerlyFacebook).

CaldorFire, August14-October21,2021

AwildfrethatburnedthroughpartsoftheEldoradoNationalForestand otherareasoftheSierraNevadainWesternCalifornia.

AwildfrethatburnedthroughButteCountyintheCaliforniaCentralValley,a regionnorthofthestatecapitalofSacramento.

Infrastructure

Thethirdvantagepointpresentsdataon healthcarefacilitiesinareasimpactedbyan emergencyevent.Thesedatahelpidentify whatservicesarethreatenedorlostduring adisasterandwhatservicesremain available.

Thesedataprovideinformationonthe capacitiesofnearbyhealthcarefacilitiesand thedisruptionsincriticalinfrastructures(or hazards)thatmayresultinlarge-scale disastersituations.

Justasroutineforecastingforepidemicsis agoalforpandemicpreparedness, anticipatingtheimmediatesurgeinpatients andthelonger-termdynamicsofthe medicalneedsofcommunitiesdisplacedby anaturaldisastermustbecometheroutine toimproveresponse.

SeamlessReportGeneration

AnalystsandresearcherscanusetheReadyMappertooltoquerynearreal-timeinformationtoexaminepopulation dynamics,infrastructurestatus,andhealthsystemcapacities.

Customizablereportsmaybegeneratedinportabledocumentformattoprovidecuratedinsightsthatmeetspecifc userneeds.Dashboardvisualizationscanbecapturedinthesereports,flteredbygeography,time,andother attributesofinterest.Thereportsaremodular,allowinguserstoincludeorexcludeentiresections,andrearrange thefowofinformation.Thedigitalversionsincludesmartnavigationfunctions.

Changesinpopulationdensities

HurricaneIda, August26-September5,2021 ACategory4hurricanethatstruckregionsoftheGulfCoastofthe UnitedStates,namelythestateofLouisiana.

Generalinformationabouta wildfre(perimeter,acresburnt overtime),andvulnerabilities.

Informationonhealthcare facilitiesnearthelocationof thewildfre.

Informationonthebaseline vulnerabilitiesofafected populations.

andmovementpatternsduringa wildfreevent.

Preparingfor Crises

Duringacrisis,whetheritbeadiseaseoutbreak, hurricane,orahumanitarianemergency,real-time mobilitydatacanhelpsavelives—butonlyif governmentsandresponseagenciesknowhowto useit.CrisisReadywaslaunchedwiththeintentof bridgingthegapbetweenthetechnology companiesthatproducethesedataandthelocal agenciesthatcanusethem.

Thereisacomplexprocessinvolvedinlinkingraw datatoadecisioninthecontextofdisaster response.Datamustbegatheredfrommultiple sources,andsystemsmustbecreatedfortheway thedataisprocessed,keptprivate,andshared. Then,itmustbeanalyzedandpresentedinaway thatisusefulforinformingpolicyaroundaspecifc outcome.

Moreover,thereisnoone-size-fts-allsolutionfor usingdatainacrisis.Toolsandmethodologies mustbeadaptedtoftthecontextofaspecifc emergencyevent,andtheyneedtobeableto evolveasneedschange.AsCrisisReady’sCaroline Buckeesaid,“tohavepolicyimpact,youreally musthavehumansintheloop.”

Overthepastyear,CrisisReadyhaslaunched variousresearchprojects,events,andpapersto advanceconversationsabouttheusehuman mobilitydatainemergencycontexts.Ourteamhas engagedpolicymakers,governmentofcials, lawyers,academics,andagenciesaroundthe worldtodiscussthemethodsusedtogather, aggregate,anonymize,andsharethesedataduring disasters.

Theconversationsandresearchproductsthat resultfromtheseefortssetforthactionplansand policyrecommendationsforgovernmentsand agencieskeenontappingintothepowerof mobilitydatainemergencycontexts.

TheUseof HumanMobilityData inPublicHealth Emergencies

InApril2022,CrisisReadypublished“TheUseofHumanMobilityDatainPublicHealthEmergencies,”a whitepaperthatrecountsdeliberationsfromafour-partseminarco-hostedbytheteamandHarvard University’sRadclifeInstituteforAdvancedStudiesinMarchandApril2021.Theseminarwasattendedby over40domainexperts,representingacademia,industry,law,humanitarianrelief,anddisasterresponse.

Theinterdisciplinaryexchangethattookplaceduringtheseminars—andpresentedintheproceedingwhite paper—mapsareasofconvergencebetweenthetechnologycompaniesthatproducehumanmobilitydata, theepidemiologistsandpublichealthpractitionersthatincorporatethesedataintotheirmodelsand research,thelawyers,ethicists,anddatascientiststhatareconcernedwithhandlingthedataresponsibly, andthehealthanddisasterresponseagenciesthatuseinsightsfromsuchdatatoinformdecisionmaking.In doingso,thewhitepaperidentifesthetechnical,regulatory,andtranslationalgapsthatprecludetheefective integrationofthesedataintofeldresponse.

WhitePaperOverview

Thewhitepapersummarizeskeypointsofconsensus andrecommendationsfromparticipantsoftheseminarit isbasedon.Thepapersetstheagendaforaconsultative process,incollaborationwithCrisisReadyandtheGlobal FacilityforDisasterReductionandRecovery(GFDRR),to guidegovernmentsandresponseagencieslookingto usethesedataforemergencypreparednessand response.

ThewhitepaperisorganizedaroundCrisisReady’s DataMethods-TranslationalReadiness framework,which bringstogetherkeyissuesregardingthepreparationof datafortimelyuse,applyingthedatameaningfullyand purposefully,andnurturinglocalcapacitytoreceiveand actontheanalysis.Thepaperpresentsabroadviewof thestateoftheartandlistskeydomainsofinquirytobe pursuedbytechnologycompanies,scientists, lawmakers,andresponseagenciesfortheresponsible useofnoveldatastreamstomaximizepublicgood withoutcausingorexacerbatingharm.

DataReadiness

Thesectionon DataReadiness examinesthetechnical,regulatory,andethicalissuesrelatedtotheaccess ofhumanmobilitydata.Keythemesthatemergedinthissectionincludethecriteriaandeligibilityforaccess, thegranularityofthedatathatcanbeshared,thetensionbetweenriskandutilityofthedatashared,the means-forandbarriers-tosharingdataacrossinstitutionsorjurisdictions,andfnally,thedeterminationof thearbiterofthesedecisions.

Mainactionpoints

1.Introducelegislationtogoverntheuse(andre-use)ofsuchnoveldatastreams,includinghuman mobilitydata.

2.Launchaprofessionalbodycomprisingtechnologycompanies,researchers,andresponse agenciestopublishinteroperabilitystandardsonhumanmobilitydataandothernoveldata streams.

3.Generatecontext-specifcconsensusonaggregationandanonymizationofshareddata.

4.Promotethedevelopmentofstandardcontractuallanguagefortheuseofhumanmobility databyacademicsandpolicymakers.

5.Promoteacadreofdatastewardswithintechnologycompaniestoguidetheresponsible andmeaningfuluseofthedataforpublicgood.

6.Develop,test,anddisseminateuse-casesontheapplicationofdiferentialprivacyonhuman mobilitydatasetsforepidemiologicalorotherpublichealthpurposes.

7.Includecommunitiesfromwhomthedataaregeneratedindefningthescopethedata’suse.

MethodsReadiness

Thesectionon MethodsReadiness examinesissuesconcerningrepresentativeness,uncertainty,privacy, andtheepidemiologicalapplicationsofthesedata.Thissectionoutlinesadvancesintheapplicationof multiplelargedatastreamsgeneratedbymobiledigitaladvertising(AdTech)companies,socialmedia platforms,andtelecomcompaniestopublichealthresponseplanningandmodeling.

Mainactionpoints

1.Developframeworksforcommunicatingbiasanduncertaintywhilepublishinganalysesusing mobilitydata.

2.Advancemethodstoaddressbiascorrectioninhumanmobilitydatasets.

3.Supportthedevelopmentofstandardstopromoteinteroperabilityamongthedatasets, especiallyacrosstemporalandspatialscales.

4.Developapproachestoallowforthediverseanonymizationtechniquesusedacrosstechnology companies.

5.Developaframeworkforquantifyingthepotentialforharmthatacknowledgessocietaland politicalcontext.

6.Advocatefordonorsandnationalacademiestoinvestresourcesfortranslationaldata science,inpreparationforandduringemergencies,includingallocatingemergencyfunds.

TranslationalReadiness

Thesectionon TranslationalReadiness examinestheglobalapproachesthatseektoimprovetheintegration ofhumanmobilitydataintoresponseplanningbyresearchers,policymakers,andresponseagencies.Early efortstoaddressthesechallengesarethroughthesocializationofendproducts,thepromotionofdata “bilinguals”whoareabletonavigatethescienceandregulatoryrealms,thecreationofregionalhubs, networks,andmultistakeholder“assemblies,”anddirecttrainingandcapacity-buildingwithinresponse agencies.

Mainactionpoints

1.Documentanddisseminatebestpracticestargetingtechnologycompanies,donorsandnational academies,policymakers,andthegeneralpublic.

2.Fundanddevelopacadreof“databilinguals”embeddedinpublichealthandresponseagencies.

3.Fundandsustainadistributednetworkofresearcherstosupportlocalregionalcollaborationsof trainedscientistsandresponseagencies.

SeminarParticipants

Industry Academia

RakeshBharania, Salesforce

MaggieCarter, AmazonWebServices(AWS)

OlivierCottray, ESRI

AlexDow, Meta

KenthEngø-Monsen, Telenor

BrennanLake, Cuebiq

NavinVembar, CamberSystems

AndrewZolli, Planet

MercèCrosas, InstituteforQuantitativeSocialScience,Harvard University

MartaGonzalez, UCBerkeleyCollegeofEnvironmentalDesign

SuneLehmann, TechnicalUniversityofDenmark

RichardMaude, MahidolOxfordTropicalMedicineResearchUnit; UniversityofOxford;HarvardT.H.ChanSchoolofPublicHealth; ElaineOkanyeneNsoesie, BostonUniversity

AndyTatem, UniversityofSouthampton

SalilVadhan, HarvardUniversitySchoolofEngineeringandApplied Sciences

LiXiong, EmoryUniversity

LawandPolicy SocietyandPractice

JosBerens, UnitedNationsOfcefortheCoordinatorofHumanitarian Afairs

JamesDeFrance, InternationalFederationoftheRedCrossandRed CrescentSocieties

UrsGasser, BerkmanKleinCenter,HarvardUniversity

LauraHecht-Felella, BrennanCenterforJustice,NewYorkUniversity

DraganaKaurin, BerkmanKleinCenter,HarvardUniversity

RahulMatthan, TrilegalIndia

LauraMcGorman, DataforGood,Meta

AishwaryaRaman, OlaMobilityInstitute

NathanielRaymond, JacksonInstituteforGlobalAfairs,Yale University

EmanueleStrano, MindEarth

StefaanVerhulst, TheGovernanceLab,NewYorkUniversity

RaquelBernedoPardal, SpanishRedCross

LeremyColf, U.S.DepartmentofHealth&HumanServices,Ofce oftheAssistantSecretaryforPreparednessandResponse

LawrenceDimailig, ASEANCoordinatingCentreforHumanitarian AssistanceonDisasterManagement

ErinHughey, PacifcDisasterCenter

DanielJoseph, InternationalFederationoftheRedCrossandRed CrescentSocieties

PetrarcaKaretji, PulseLabJakarta

KeithLandicho, ASEANCoordinatingCentreforHumanitarian AssistanceonDisasterManagement

DerrickMunneene, WorldHealthOrganization

DJPatil, DevotedHealth

LindaRaftree, IndependentConsultant

VanceTaylor, CaliforniaGovernor'sOfceofEmergencyServices

JasonVargo, FederalReserveBankofSanFrancisco

BuildingTrustworthy DiferentialPrivacy Software

DiferentialPrivacy(DP)iswidelyconsideredthe“goldstandard”ofprivacyprotectionforstatisticalreleases. Thesystemintroducesrandomnoiseintoreleasedstatisticstoensurethateachindividualishiddenwhile population-levelsignalsarepreserved. Conventionalmethodsofremovingpersonallyidentifable information(PII)oraggregatingdataabovetheindividuallevelareantiquated,inadequate,and vulnerabletoattacks.TherearenumerousexamplesthatdemonstratethattheremovalofPIIstill leavesthedatavulnerabletothere-identifcationofindividualsthroughtheuseofauxiliarydatasets, suchasmedicaldataandeventheNetfixdatabase.

Evenwithaggregatestatistics,itispossibletoreconstructalmosttheentireunderlyingdatasetusing publiclyavailablecensusdata,ortodeterminewhetheratargetindividualisinadatasetusinggenomic data.Thisposesasignifcantchallengetothecustodiansofthesedataandtheresearcherswhouse themtosupportpublichealthefortsandinterventions.

BuildingtheOpenDPCommunity

Atthecore,OpenDPneedsacommunityconsisting ofDiferentialPrivacyexpert,researcherswhoneed resultsfromsensitivedata,developerstobuildthe librariesandsystems,andthosewhoprovidethe data.

Atlarge,anyindividualinsocietymighthavean interestinOpenDPtoprotecttheirdatafromothers.

AbouttheOpenDPProject

TheOpenDPProjectisacommunity-ledefortrunbyCrisisReady,HarvardUniversity’sSchoolofEngineeringand AppliedSciences,andtheInstituteofQuantitativeSocialSciencestobuildatrustworthysuiteofDPtoolsthatcan beeasilyadoptedbycustodiansofsensitivedata.Withthesetools,datacustodianscanmakethesedataavailable forresearchconductedinthepublicinterest.Thesedataincludethosesharedbycompanies,government agencies,andresearchdatarepositories.

CrisisReadyresearcherswereawardedaTrustinScienceGrantbytheHarvardDataScienceInitiative,incollaboration withMércèCrosasandProfessorsGaryKingfromtheInstituteforQuantitativeSocialScienceatHarvardUniversity,and SalilVadanfromtheHarvardSchoolofEngineeringandAppliedSciences,totestthefeasibilityofapplyingOpenDPtools tomobilitydatausedforepidemiologicalpurposes.

Objectives

TheOpenDPsoftwareaimstoprovidestatisticalfunctionalitythatisusefulfortheresearcherswhowillanalyzedata whileexposingmeasuresofutilityanduncertaintythatwillhelpthemavoiddrawingincorrectconclusionsdueto theaddednoise.ItwasdevelopedtochannelthecollectiveadvancesintheDPcommunity,enablewideradoption ofDPtoolstoaddresscompellingusecases,andidentifythedirectionofresearchconductedinthefeld.

Someofthehigh-priorityusecasesidentifedbytheprojectinclude:

1.Archivaldatarepositoriestooferacademicresearchersprivacy-preservingaccesstosensitivedata.

2.Governmentagenciestosafelysharesensitivedatawithresearchers,data-drivenpolicymakers,andthe broaderpublic.

3.Companiestosharedataontheirusersandcustomerswithacademicresearchersorwithinstitutions thatbringtogetherseveralsuchdatasets.

4.Collaborationsbetweengovernment,industry,andacademiatoprovidegreateraccesstoandanalysisof datathataidsinunderstandingandcombatingthespreadofdisease.

5.Advocatefordonorsandnationalacademiestogreatlyinvestresourcesfortranslationaldatascience,in preparationforandduringemergencies,includingallocatingemergencyfunds.

ProjectPlans

TheCrisisReadyteamhasstudiedvariousmobilitydataproviders,eachwiththeirownapproachestodiferential privacy.Theutilityofthedataaremaintainedwhileprotectingtheprivacyofthemobilephoneusersinthedataset.

CrisisReadyhasbegundatabaseimplementation,includinganintegratedGCPBigQueryEnvironment,andhas alsoconsolidatedaPostGISdatabasethatincludespoweroutagesdata,creditcardtransactiondata,social vulnerabilityindices,clinicaldata,andenvironmentaldatarelatedtothepoweroutagesandevacuationsassociated withthe2020wildfresinCalifornia.

OtherprioritiesoftheOpenDPprojectinclude:

•Applydiferentialprivacytomobilitydatasets(CamberSystems,minimally)usingOpenDP.

•Evaluatetheepidemiologicalutilityofdatasetswithnoiseapplied.

•Provetheapplicabilityofdiferentialprivacycontrolsacrossheterogeneousdatasets(e.g.,FacebookdataalreadyhasDP noiseapplied).

•DesignOpenDPimplementationtoscaleuseamongpublicinstitutions,scientifc(andpublichealthresponse)community.

•Hostconcurrentpolicyround-tables(supportedbytheRadclifeInstituteforAdvancedStudiesatHarvardUniversity).

LocationDatain theContextof PublicHealth,Research, andLawEnforcement

InJune2022,CrisisReadyCo-DirectorCarolineBuckeeservedastheplanningcommitteeco-chairand moderatorforavirtualworkshophostedbytheNationalAcademiesofSciences,Engineering,andMedicine. Theworkshopexaminedhowlocationdataisgathered,understood,andusedinthecontextofpublic health,research,andlawenforcement.

Agroupofinternationalpanelistsfromuniversities,lawfrms,technologycompanies,researchinstitutions, andNGOsapproachedthissubjectfrommultipleperspectives,outliningthechallengesandopportunitiesof thesedataindiferentsettings. Thesediscussionsspannedvarioustopics,rangingfromthemechanisms usedtocollectlocationdata,themethodsofaggregatingandanonymizingthesedata,andtheutilityof thesedataduringnaturaldisasters,publichealth,andnationalsecurityemergencies.

IntroductiontoWorkshop

CarolineBuckeebegantheworkshopbyexplaininghow locationdatahasbeenusedinrecentyearsforthe developmentofpublichealthinterventions,epidemiological modelling,emergencyresponseoprtations,andregulatory purposes.Shenotedthattheworkshopwasplannedin responsetothewidespreaduseoflocationdataby policymakersandresearchersthroughouttheCOVID-19 pandemic.Whilethesedatahavebeenusedin epidemiologyforseveralyears,shesaid,thepandemic helpedthemgainwidespreadrecognitionasapowerful sourceofinformationthatcanhelpinformpublicpolicyand lawenforcementdecisions.

WhilethesedatahelpedrespondtotheCOVID-19 pandemic,severalcriticalchallengesremain.Buckeestated thatsystematicframeworksforsharingandaggregating locationdatainawaythatpreservesindividualprivacyare severelylackingornonexistent.Thisposesconsiderable riskstovulnerablepopulationsandindividualswhomaybe targetedandtrackedthroughthesedata.Ifhandled irresponsibly,thesedatacouldbeusedtounfairly apprehend,detain,orarrestindividualswhoare disenfranchisedordiscriminatedagainst.Thecorporate controlofthesesensitivedataalsocomeswithconsiderable risks.Buckeestressedthattheremustbeanextensive understandingofthesecomplexrisksofusinglocationdata safelyandresponsibly.Moreover,understandingtheserisks oughttoinformdecisionsabouthowlocationdatais collected,aggregated,andanonymizedtoprotectpersonal privacyandsecurity.

UseCasesofLocationDatainContext

Thevisualizationabovewasfeaturedinresearchpublished inTheLancetinNovember2021byCrisisReady’sCaroline Buckee,NishantKishore,andothers. Theresearchoutlinedthechangesintherelationship betweenmobilephonedataandSARS-CoV-2transmission intheUSA.

Onthefrstdayoftheworkshop,CarolineBuckee moderatedasessionthatexaminedusecasesoflocation data,specifcallytheirroleindisasterresponse,crisis management,urbanresilience,publichealth,andlaw enforcementandsecurity.ThesessionincludedCrisisReady co-directorAndrewSchroeder,whodiscussedtheutilityof thesedatawithinhumanitarianhealthdynamics.Schroederexplainedhowtheyhavebeenbenefcialinevacuation planningandresourceallocationduringnaturaldisasters,andinanalyzingtrendsinrefugeedisplacementdynamics duringhumanitariancrises.

Source:Kishore,N.,Taylor,A.R.,Jacob,P.E.,Vembar,N.,Cohen,T., Buckee,C.O.,&Menzies,N.A.(2022).Evaluatingthereliabilityof mobilitymetricsfromaggregatedmobilephonedataasproxiesforSARSCOV-2transmissionintheUSA:Apopulation-basedstudy.TheLancetDigital Health,4(1).https://doi.org/10.1016/s2589-7500(21)00214-4

Schroedercitedafewexampleshighlightingtheutilityoflocationdatainthesecontexts.First,hecalledattentionto HurricaneHarvey,aCategory4hurricanethatcausedcatastrophicfoodinginpartsofTexasandLouisianain2017.Over 100reporteddeathswereattributedtothehurricane,whichinfictedanestimated$125Billionindamages,matching HurricaneKatrinaasthecostliesthurricaneonrecordintheUnitedStates.¹,² Thiswasthefrstinstancewheredata collectedfromFacebook’sDataforGoodProgramrefectedchangesinpopulationdensitiesoverspecifedperiodsof time.Heexplainedthatthesedataprovidedaformof“tacticalremotesensing”thathelpedemergencyresponse agenciesbettertargetandattend-tocommunitiesinneedofcriticalsupport.Thesetargetedresponseefortsweremade possiblebythedisplacementpatternsrevealedthroughthedata.

ThesecondexampleSchroedercitedwastheMarshall Fire,awildfrethatburnedthroughBoulderCounty, ColoradoinDecember2021.Over1,000peoplewere displacedduetothefre,whichaccountedforthemost destructivefreinthestate’shistory.³ Theuseoflocation dataprovedtobeanextremelyusefulsourceof informationforrespondersthroughoutthisemergency, asitallowedagenciestounderstandhowthefre shapedmobilityanddisplacementpatternsduring evacuations.SimilarlytoHurricaneHarvey,support serviceswereadministeredtoafectedcommunities withgreaterprecisionandinamoretimelymannerdue tothenearreal-timeinformationthedataprovided.

ThethirdusecaseintroducedbySchroederwasthe refugeecrisisthatfollowedtheRussianinvasionof Ukraineinlate-February2022.Duringthiscrisis,readilyavailabledataonbordercheckpoints,refugeereception sites,andlocationdataallowedforrapidanalysesof populationdensitiescomparedtopre-crisisbaselines.

AsrefugeesfeeingthewarinUkrainedispersedacross EasternandCentralEurope,thesedataprovided

ThevisualizationabovewaspublishedbyCrisisReadyonJanuary 5,2022,shortlyaftertheMarshallFireburnedthroughBoulder County,Colorado.Ithighlightschangesinpopulationdensitiesin areasnearthefre’spathbetweenDecember30,whenthefre started,andJanuary5.Thearrowsindicatethedirectionalpatterns ofmobilitythroughoutthistimeperiod.

importantinformationonhowtobestprepareforandsupportincomingrefugees.Whetheritbeaccesstohealthcareor medicalservices,education,orhousingandshelter,locationdataprovedtobeacriticalassetinpreparing-forand responding-tothesuddeninfuxofrefugeesincountriesalongtheWesternborderofUkraine,suchasPoland,Hungary, Moldova,theCzechRepublic,Slovakia,andRomania.Schroederthenidentifedkeygapsrelatedtotheuseofthese datainemergencysettings.Chiefamongthemwerethefollowing:

•Limitsintemporalandspatialscalesinapp-basedmobilitydata,

•Thelackofadefnedprocessforaccessinglocationdataduringemergencyevents,

•Disparitiesintherepresentativenessofdatafromdiferentprovidersandgeographiclocations,

•Alackoftransparencybetweendataprovidersintermsofsamplesizesandrepresentativeness,

•Alackofstandardsforemergencymobiledatametrics,

•Andlimitationsonlocalcapacitiestoanalyzelocationdataduringemergencies.

Thisvisualizationshowschangesinpopulationdensities throughoutPolandbetweenMarch20andMarch26,2022,a monthaftertheUkrainewarbegan.Themapalsoincludes informationonrefugeereceptioncheckpoints,asylumseeker centers,andrefugeecenters.

Thisvisualizationshowschangesinpopulationdensities throughoutHungarybetweenMarch20andMarch26,2022. Inadditiontoincludinginformationonrefugeecentersand checkpoints,itidentifesthesubregionsofthecountrywith signifcantpopulationincreases.

Fig.1: Distinctneighborhoodgroupsbasedondisasterresponseandrecoverypatternsasidentifedbyagglomerativeclustering.

Thefgureabovewasfeaturedin“Measuringinequalityincommunityresiliencetonaturaldisastersusinglarge-scalemobilitydata,”aresearcharticle publishedinNaturebyBoyeongHong,BartoszJ.Bonczak,ArpitGupta,andConstantineE.Kontokosta.Thevisualizationpresentsananalysisof mobilitypatternsofmorethan800,000anonymizedmobiledevicesinHouston,Texas,drawingattentiontothesocioeconomicandracialdisparitiesin resiliencecapacityandevacuationpatternsduringHurricaneHarveyin2017.⁵

ConcludingThoughts

NavinVembar,amemberoftheplanningcommittee,concludedtheworkshopbystatingthatelementsof technologyneedtomergewithlegalandregulatoryframeworksinordertopreservecommunity-leveland individual-levelpricacy.⁴ Hesaidthatimplementingresourceslikediferentialprivacycanchangehowwethink aboutandapplyprivacyrights.Yves-AlexandredeMontjoye,alsoamemberoftheplanningcommittee, suggestedthatiftherighttoolsareused,moreprivacyandmoreresearchcanbegeneratedusingthesedata.

Montjoyeaddedthat“evenperfectanonymityisinsufcienttopreventallrisk[s]”associatedwiththeuseof locationdata.⁶Consequentially,oversightofreleaseddataandabetterunderstandingofhowtheycanbe misusedisessential.

1.PhilMcCausland;DanielArkin;KurtChirbas(August27,2017)."HurricaneHarvey:AtLeast2DeadAfterStormHitsTexas Coast".NBCNews.ArchivedfromtheoriginalonAugust27,2017.RetrievedAugust27,2017.

2.CostliestU.S.tropicalcyclonestablesupdate(PDF)(Report).UnitedStatesNationalHurricaneCenter.January12,2018. Archived(PDF)fromtheoriginalonJanuary27,2018.RetrievedJanuary12,2018.

3."MarshallfreofciallybecomesColorado'smostdestructive,with991homesandbusinessesburned,ofcialsconfrm".January1,2022.RetrievedMarch31,2022.

4.NationalAcademiesofSciences,Engineering,andMedicine.2022.LocationDataintheContextofPublicHealth,Research,andLawEnforcement:AnExplorationofGovernance Frameworks:ProceedingsofaWorkshop—inBrief.Washington,DC:TheNationalAcademiesPress.https://doi.org/10.17226/26645.

5.Hong,B.,Bonczak,B.J.,Gupta,A.etal.Measuringinequalityincommunityresiliencetonaturaldisastersusinglarge-scalemobilitydata.NatCommun12,1870(2021).https://doi.org/10.1038/ s41467-021-22160-w

6.NationalAcademiesofSciences,Engineering,andMedicine.2022.LocationDataintheContextofPublicHealth,Research,andLawEnforcement:AnExplorationofGovernance Frameworks:ProceedingsofaWorkshop—inBrief.Washington,DC:TheNationalAcademiesPress.https://doi.org/10.17226/26645.

7.Ibid.

WorkshopDayI: Wednesday,June8,2022

IntroductionandBackground

•Introductiontohowlocationdataisusedin publichealth,research,andlawenforcement contexts

•Theroleoflocationdatathroughoutthe COVID-19pandemic

•Thelegalandethicalchallengesrelatingtothe useofpersonallyidentifableinformation(PII) andinsufcientdataprivacyregulations

TheCollectionofLocationData

•Mechanismsusedtocollectlocationdata

•Locationdatagranularityandcoverage

•Howlocationdataisusedprivatelyandpublicly

•Howlocationdataissharedandsold

AggregationandAnonymizationofLocation Data:TheStateoftheArt

•Commonusesofandanalyticmethods appliedtolocationdata

•Datade-identifcationandaggregation practicesandthedegreetowhichtheyare standardized,andprotectiveofprivacy

•Thetailoringofdataneedstoftresearch needs.

LocationDataUseCases

•Recentexamplesoflocationandmobility datausedinthecontextsofpublichealth, emergencyresponse,andhumanitarianaid

•Theefcacyofmobilitydatatoachievethe researchpurposesforwhichitisused

WorkshopDayII: Thursday,June9,2022

PrivacyConcernsandRisksofHarm

•Whatpreciselocationinformationaboutindividuals revealsaboutprivateconductandhabits

•Potentialrisksofharmofthecollectionanduseof locationinformationbypublichealthandother researchersandlawenforcement

•Howrisksofharmcanbereducedormitigated

•Riskstogroupsorsocieties

LocationDataandCommunity

•Implicationsoflocationdataforprivacyandconnected democraticprinciples,aswellasdisparateimpactson historicallyvulnerablepopulations

•Publicawarenessofthecollectionanduseoflocation andproximitydata,aswellastheroleofvoluntary participationandconsent

•Thedegreetowhichcollection,retention,andsharingof dataareappropriateandtailored,inscopeandin substance,tothepurposesforwhichtheyareused

LocationDataGovernance

•Governanceframeworksfortheuseoflocation dataandhowtheyvaryinthecontextsofpublic health,academicresearch,andlawenforcement

•Gapsingovernanceframeworks

NewApproachestotheGovernanceandUse ofLocationData

•Thenatureofpotentialchangestogovernance modelsforlocationdata,includingpertinent ethicalframeworksthatcouldbeadaptedto regulatelocationdata,suchasresearcher privacyagreements/standards,confdentiality certifcates,andInstitutionalReviewBoard governancemodels

•Theroleofcorporatebestpracticesinthis sphere,giventheroleoftechnologyfrmsasthe primaryoriginatorsandstewardsofmobility data

Building Networks

Overthepastyear,CrisisReadyhascollaboratedwithpartnersaround theworldtohostonlineevents,trainingmodules,andeducational workshops.Sofar,CrisisReady’sworkshopshavebeenhostedin Mexico,Budapest,andCalifornia,withothersplannedinColombia, Taiwan,Thailand,andNewYorkinthecomingyear.

Meetingsand Events

09-23-2021

DMDNWebinar:“TheUseofHumanMobilityData inPublicHealthEmergencies”seminar deliberations

PreviousCrisisReadyevents

•Wildfres,PowerOutages,andthePandemic |Fri,May28,2021

•GroundTruthMatters:TravelSurveys,COVID-19,andtheLimitsofHumanMobilityData| Fri,Apr30,2021

•TranslationalReadiness,DataCollaborativesandCapacityBuilding-LessonsfromCOVID-19 |Fri,Mar26,2021

•CrisisReadyLaunchEvent |Fri,Feb26,2021

•Diddatamakeadiference?LessonsfromFacebookDataforGoodin2020 |Fri,Jan29,2021

•StanfordDataScience:COVID-19DataForum |Thu,Dec10,2020

•HarvardDataScienceInitiativeSpecialEvent:TrustinScience,TrustinDemocracy |Mon,Dec7,2020

•UsingHumanMobilityDatatoInformPandemicResponseTheoryandPractice |Fri,Dec4,2020

•Data,Equity,andWildfres:California2020 |Fri,Oct23,2020

01-27-2022

DMDNWebinar:Mobilitydataand disasters:aroundtablediscussion

05-26-2022

DMDNWebinar:Usingnoveltechnologiesto forecasttheneedsofmedically-vulnerable populationsduringwildfres

04-21-2022

Thedireimpactsofclimatemigration onchildrenandfamilieswebinar

03-22-2022

Datapreparednessfordisastersin Mexicoregionalworkshop

02-24-2022

DMDNWebinar:Understanding globaldisastersanddisplacement throughhumanmobilitydata

06-27-2022

Cities,data,andrefugee needsworkshopinBudapest

04-06-2022

Theimpactofgoldminingonthe feasibilityofmalariaeliminationinthe Amazonwebinar

04-14-2022

Datatodrivedecisions: Howcanresearchinform philanthropicgivingwebinar

03-08-2022

HumanitarianAIpodcast:Theuseof datatosupporthumanitarianoperations

06-30-2022

DMDNWebinar:DataPreparednessfor DisastersinMexico:RegionalHub WorkshopReview

04-27-2022

DMDNWebinar:TheUseofHumanMobility DatainPublicHealthEmergencieswhite paperlaunch

03-31-2022

DMDNWebinar:Mobilitydata, displacement,andthewarinUkraine

06-09-2022

LocationDataintheContextofPublic Health,Research,andLawEnforcement NationalAcademyofSciencewebinar

RegionalWorkshops

DataReadinessforDisasters:GapAnalysisWorkshop

MexicoCity,Mexico March29-30,2022

Mexicoisamongthemostdisaster-afectedcountriesintheworldandishometosomeofthemostsophisticated datausersfordisasterpreparednessandresponse.However,therearecriticalchallengesinthecountry’sefortsto leveragenoveldataduringemegrencies.OnMarch29and30,2022,CrisisReady,theWorldBank’sGlobalFacility forDisasterReductionandRecovery(GFDRR),andMexico'sNationalCenterforPreventionofDisasters (CENAPRED)hostedatwo-partworkshoptoexplorehowhumanmobilitydataandearthobservationservicescan beintegratedintoMexico’sDisasterRiskReduction(DRR)frameworks.

TheworkshopinMexicoCitywasthefrstinaseriesofregionalforumsthatCrisisReadyandGFDRRarehosting aroundtheworld.Theseworkshopsfacilitatedialogueabouttheuseofnoveldatainlocalpublichealthand emergencyresponsecontexts,andbuildanalyticalcapacitiesthroughtranslationalnetworkswhileestablishing researchpartnerships.Anotherobjectiveoftheworkshopsistoinitiatethecreationofframeworksforpolicy advocacywithintheregions.

I.DataReadiness (AccesstoData)

a.Akeypointofdiscussionexaminedthelegalagreementswithprivatecompaniesthatneedtobeformedtounlock theuseofnoveldatainMexico’semergencyresponseoperations.

b.Questionsabouttheethical,legal,andresponsibleuseofdatawereposedbyworkshopparticipants.

c.Speakersassesedvariousmethodsof datacollection,providingguidanceonhowdatashouldbetransferred inasafeandsecuremanner.

II.MethodsReadiness (ProcessingtheData)

a. Workshopparticipantsconcludedthatnewmethodsofdatacollection,analysis,andinterpretationshouldnotbe inventedatthetimeoftime-sensitivedisasters,asitputsaconsiderablestrainonlocalcapacitiesandresources. Instead,standardizedprocessesshouldbedevelopedbeforehandsothatsupportservicescanbedeployed quicklyandefciently.

b.Speakersshareddiferentmethodologiesthatcouldproducepracticalresultstoguideresourceallocation, evacuationplans,andpublicsafetyprotocols,amongothers.

III.TranslationalDynamics

(Howaretheinsightsfromtheanalysiscommunicatedto policymakers,and howdoweengageinlocalnetworkstosupportdatapublicationstoimprovepolicyinterventions)

a.Deliberationsfromtheworkshopconcludedthatcollaborativenetworksoughttoconsistsofindividualsfrom diferentbackgrounds(suchasdatascience,research,government).

b.Discussionsalsouncoveredtheneedforacommonlanguageamongdataprovidersandpractionersinorderfor datatobeusedefectivelyforpublicgood.

TheworkshopinMexicofocusedonthreemodesofreadinessfordisasters,outlinedbelow.

WorkshopObjectivesandOutcomes

Aspreviouslymentioned,theworkshop'smainobjectivewastoidentifygapsinMexico’sdisasterresponse operationsandprovidevaluablerecommendationsonhowtointegratenoveldata,primarilymobilityandearth observationdata,innationaldisasterriskmanagementframeworks.

Threekeygapswereidentifedbyparticipatingstakeholders:

1.Lackofaccesstodatathroughprivateproviders,

2.Lackofanalyticalcapacitythroughagencyandacademicpartnersduringemergencies,

3.Lackofcollaborativenetworksthatlinkdataproviders,analysts,anddecisionmakerstogether.

ThegroupalsoidentifedunexploreddatasourcesthatwouldbeusefulforDisasterRiskMitigation(DRM)inthe country.Thisincludedorigin-destinationmatricestomappopulationdisplacementandresettlement,remotelysensedimagerytoassessstructuraldamage,andhistoricalanalysesofevacuationandvulnerabilitypatterns stratifedbyincometoinformrisk-reductionmodeling.

Severalparticipantsemphasizedtheneedtoretaininformationonhistoricaleventsandoutcomes,whichcan informfuturedisasterresponsemodelsandriskreductionprotocols.Likewise,interagencycommunicationsrequire efectivedataplanning.Diferentagencieshaveadditionaldataneedspertinenttotheirareasofresponsibility,and thoseneedsandresponsibilitiesmaynotbecoordinated.

Participantsoftheworkshopdiscussthe useofcommunity-baseddataindisaster responseeforts.

MexicannonproftSocialTICexplainshow itisleadingefortstobuilddatacapacities atnationalandlocallevels.

PolicyRecommendations

1.Setupdata-sharingagreementspriortodisasters(mainlywithINEGI&CENAPRED).

2.Designatedatastewardstodriveimprovementsincollaborationandanalysis.Accordingto NYUGovLab,datastewardsareorganizationalleadersresponsibleforcreatingpublicvalueby usingtheirorganization'sdataforcollaboration,access,andanalyticalinsights.

3.Setupdatapipelinesbasedonestablishedmethodologiesanddecision-makingneeds.

4.Setopenstandardsforsharingdataandanalyticalproducts.

RepresentativesfromCENAPRED, CrisisReady,andDirectReliefdiscusstherole ofdatareadinessindisasterpreparedness andresponse.

Cities,Data,andRefugeeNeeds:AWorkshopontheUkraineCrisis Budapest,Hungary June27-28,2022

OnJune27and28th,2022,CrisisReadyandDirectReliefhosted“Cities,Data,andRefugeeNeeds:AWorkshop ontheUkrainianCrisis”inBudapest,Hungary.Thegoaloftheworkshopwastoimprovecity-levelanalysisof refugeedynamics,needs,andinvestmentspromptedbythewarinUkraine.Thetwo-dayworkshopconvened43 representativesfromcitygovernments,internationalagencies,nonprofts,privatesectordataproviders,and researchorganizationstoproposesolutionstothechallengesassociatedwithdataanalysesandintegrationduring humanitarianemergencies.

Participantsidentifythehousingand sheltercapacitiesofBudapest, addressingquestionsaboutthe sustainabilityofvolunteer-driven eforts.

LocatedbetweenUkraineandWesternEurope,Hungaryservesasapointofconvergenceforrefugeesfeeingthe Ukrainewar.Italsoservesasanintermediatehostcountryforthoseplanningonmovingfurtherwest.Research analysisfromtheUnitedNationsHighCommissionerforRefugees(UNHCR)andInternationalOrganizationfor Migration(IOM)suggestthatmostUkrainianrefugeesdonotintendtostayinHungary,however,thosewhodoface challengeswithfndinglivingaccommodationsinasaturatedhousingmarketandsecuringemploymentinalabor marketcomposedpredominantlyofshort-term,seasonaljobs.BostonConsultingGroup(BCG)reportedthatmost refugeeshaveatleastacollege-leveleducation,andthatmanyhaveexperienceinhigh-skillprofessions.ThisisillmatchedwiththelabordemandinmostCentralandEasternEuropean(CEE)cities.

Mobilitydataandadvancedanalytictoolscaninformrefugeedynamicsandmovementpatterns.Thesetools ultimatelyshapedecisionsoncity-levelplanningandresourceallocationactivities.BothBCGandUNHCRreport thatrefugeestendtochoosetheirfnaldestinationbasedonpersonalrelationships.Therefore,theserelationships shaperefugees’abilitiestoaccesshousing,jobs,andintegrationservices.Duetothisfact,socialconnectedness hasbeenstudiedbytheWorldBanktoassessmigrationfowsbetweenUkrainianandCEEcities.

Drawingupontheworkshopdiscussions,thefollowingworkstreamswereidentifed:

I.NeedsAssessmentHarmonization

AtthisstageoftherefugeeresponseinHungary,nosingledatasourcecanprovidealltheinformationneededfor decisionmaking.Inordertoefectivelyleveragecurrentdatatoolsforinterventions,participantsacknowledgedthe valueofharmonizingneedsassessmentsurveys.Assessmentsareharmonizedbasedonthesimilarityofsurvey questions,samplesizes,methodologies,andagelimitations.Theparticipantsproposedcreatingdocumentationofall relevantassessmentsurveyadministeredinHungary,followedbyasystematicreviewoftheseinstruments.

ThedeputymayorofBudapestbegins theworkshopwithacalltoprioritize internationalcollaborationondata analysisfortherefugeecrisis.

Participantsoftheworkshopconduct dataneedsandinfrastructure assessmentstounderstandwhatdatais mosthelpfulduringthecrisisin Budapest.

II.HealthandEducation

TheeducationofrefugeechildrenfromUkrainehasbeendeeplycompromisedsincethestartofRussia’sinvasion.Many studentshavehadtotransitiontoonlinelearningordiscontinuetheireducationaltogether.Refugeefamilieswhohave soughtorareplanningtoseektemporaryprotectionwilllikelyenrolltheirchildreninschoolfortheupcomingFall2022 semester,wheninfectiousdiseasesalsobecomemoreprevalent.

Participantsraisedquestionsabouthowtoquantifyschoolenrollmentsandvaccinationstatusesforschoolandworkrelatedfunctionstoprepareforincomingcohortsandpreventviraloutbreaks.Themostcriticalrefugeehealthneedsspan mentalhealth,pediatrics,obstetrics,chronicdiseasemanagement,oncology,andthetreatmentofinfectiousdiseases, suchasHIVandtuberculosis(TB).Regardingtheseservices,participantsraisedconcernsabouttheaccessibilityofthese servicesduetolanguagebarriers,thecostofcare,andtheabilityofrefugeestonavigateaforeignhealthsystem.

III.Employment

AccesstoemploymentopportunitiesisacriticalissueforUkrainianrefugeeswhointendtostayinHungaryshort-andlongterm.However,thecityofBudapestdoesnothaveaggregateddataonthecurrentlabormarketdemand.A considerablechallengeforthecityisthelackofinformationabouthowmanyrefugeesareseekingemployment comparedtothenumberofavailablejobsinthecountry.Therearealsouncertaintiesaboutrefugees’professional backgrounds,availabilityforremoteversusin-personwork,andchildcareneedsforworkingparents.

ToassessthedemandinBudapest’slabormarket,participantsproposedcontactingprivatejoblistingwebsitesfor availabledataonrefugee-friendlyjoboferings.FacebookandGooglecanprovidedataonjobmarkettrends,aswell. AccordingtotheWorldBank’smobilitydataanalysis,theoriginofaUkrainianrefugeecanbededucedfromtheir socialconnectionstothoselivinginCentralandEasternEuropeancities.Identifyingemployeedemographicsfrom theseregionsmayshedlightontheskillsetsofrefugeesinBudapest.

IV.Accommodations

HousingaccommodationsinBudapestareprimarilydrivenbyvolunteers,privatecivilians,andcityofcials.Anissue expressedamongparticipantsisthatthereisnoclearunderstandingofhousingdemandandsupply.Itisdifcultto assesshousingneedswithoutknowingthetotalnumberofrefugeesinHungary,theirdemographics,ortheestimated lengthoftheirstay.Asforhousingsupply,thecityhasidentifedapproximately1,000unusedfatsandnon-residential buildingsthatcouldbeconvertedintoshelters.However,theserevitalizationprojectswouldrequiresignifcant investmentsthatthecityhasnotyetsecured.WhilemanyHungariancivilianshaveoferedtheirhomesasshelters, questionsaboutthesustainabilityofvolunteer-drivenefortswereraised.Recentnewsreportsindicatethatcivilians oftenexperiencefatigueandotherchallengeswhilehousingrefugeesforlongperiodsoftime.Consideringthese issues,addressingcurrenthousingneedsisadifcultundertaking.

Inanticipationofamigrationsurgeattheendof2022andbeginningof2023,participantsacknowledgedthevalueof anearlywarningsystemtodetecthousingneedsfromDecembertoFebruary.Thesystemaimstoreduce homelessnessthroughearlyriskdetection,whichtheninformstimelyintervention.Riskindicatorscanbesourced fromsocialmediaandGoogleTrends,whererefugeesarelikelytosearchforhousingaccommodationsandsocial services.ReportsfromcityauthoritiesandNGOscouldnotonlyhelpdefnetheparametersoftheearlywarning system,but,whencombinedwithanactivesurveillancesystemthroughFacebookgroupsurveys,couldsignal abnormallevelsofhousinginsecurity.

Team

Ourinterdisciplinaryteamconsistsofdataanalysts,clinicians, epidemiologists,academics,andresearchersbasedatHarvard UniversityandDirectRelief.TheCrisisReadyteamcollaboratesand supportsvariousresearchactivitiesrelatingtoemergency preparedness,management,andresponsearoundtheglobe.

Inadditiontothemajorresearchprojectsbeingconductedat CrisisReady,membersofourteamalsoconducttheirown independentresearch,whicharerootedintheorganization’s DataMethods-TranslationalReadiness Framework.

WildfreThreattoInpatientHealthcareFacilitiesinCalifornia

NeilSinghBedi,CalebDresser,AkashYadav

Toassesstherisksposedbywildfresonhealthcare facilitiesinCalifornia,CrisisReady'sNeilSinghBedi mappedthelocationsofinpatientfacilitiesinrelationto FireThreatZones(FTZs),aratingsystemofwildfre threatthatcombinesexpectedfrefrequenciesand potentialfrebehaviors.Underthementorshipand guidanceofformerClimateandHumanHealthFellow andBethIsraelDeaconessMedicalCenteremergency physicianCalebDresser,andwithtechnicalassistance fromCrisisReadyDataScientistAkashYadav,Singh Bedi’sforthcomingpaperpresentscomputationsofthe

maximumFTZswithinhalf-mileandone-mileradiiof eachfacilityinthestate,andthedistancesofeach facilitytothenearest“high,”“veryhigh,”or“extreme” FTZ(together,“Higher”FTZ).

Thepaperfndsthatwildfresposeaconsiderable threattothemajorityofinpatienthealthcarefacilitiesin California.Inmanycounties,allfacilitiesmaybeatrisk. Basedonthesefndings,California’swildfre preparednessandplanningefortsmustaddressboth facilityandregionalresilienceneeds.

NeilSinghBedi,etal.(Underreview)

DistributionofCaliforniaHealthcareFacilitiesbyMaximumFireThreatCategorization

ThemapsaboveplotGeneralandAcuteCareHospitals(GHS),InpatientLongTermCareFacilities(LTFs),andInpatient BehavioralHealthFacilities(BHFs),classifedbythemaximumfrethreatwithin0.5milesofthesitesplotted.

ThebargraphsindicatetheproportionoffacilitiesineachFireThreatZone(FTZ).

•29% arewithin0.5-miles

•49% arewithinonemileofHigherFTZ

•In25countiesinCalifornia, 100% ofinpatienthealthcarefacilitiesarewithinonemileofHigherFTZs

NeilSinghBedi,etal.(Underreview)

ProportionofFacilitiesinHigherFTZbyEMSARegion

Thebargraphsaboveindicatetheproportionoffacilitieswithin0.5mileand1milebufersthatarewithinhigherFTZin eachEmergencyMedicalServicesAuthority(EMSA)region.

Outage-ProneRegionsinCaliforniaNeedMoreMedicalResources SupportDuringtheFireSeason

ShenyueJia,MathewKiang,CarolineBuckee,SatchitBalsari,AndrewSchroeder

UsingdataonCaliforniaresidentswhoexperienced poweroutagesin2019,CrisisReady’sShenyueJia, CarolineBuckee,AndrewSchroeder,SatchitBalsari, andMathewKianginvestigatethetemporalandspatial distributionofpowerservicedisruptionsacrossthe stateinaforthcomingresearchreport.

Focusingonmassivepowerdisruptionscausedby PublicSafetyPowerShutofs(PSPS),whichtypically occurinresponsetoextremeweathereventsornatural

disasters—suchaswildfres—thereportseeksto identifywhichcommunitiesinCaliforniaareproneto thesedisruptionsanddeterminewhethertheyhave enoughresourcestocopewiththem.Todothis,the teamassociatestheoccurrenceofPSPSwithareas thatconsistoflarge,medicallyvulnerablepopulations. Theseareasaredeterminedbasedonthepercentage ofmedicarebenefciariesandindividualsservedbya healthcarecenterinagivenpopulation.

ShenyueJia,etal.(Underreview)

IdentifyingWhichCommunitiesinCaliforniaareMostImpacted byPowerOutages

Thefgureaboveshowstherelationshipbetweenthetotalnumberofpowerdisruptionsandthenumberofcustomers afectedbydisruptionsthatlastedfor1hourorlongerand24hoursorlonger.

Theresearchfndsthatthedistributionofpoweroutagesdisproportionatelyafectsmedicallyvulnerablecommunitiesin ruralCalifornia.Toimprovehealthcarecoverageinthestate,wildfreresponseefortsoughttopayspecialattentiontothe needsofmedicallyvulnerablecommunitieswhosehealthiscontingentonthestabilityandreliabilityofpowerservices.

ShenyueJia,etal.(Underreview)

VisualizingtheConnectionsBetweenWildfresandPowerOutages

ThevisualsaboveshowthetimeseriesofpowerdisruptionsthatoccurredinCaliforniathroughout2019.

Directors

CarolineO’FlahertyBuckee ProfessorofEpidemiology,HarvardT.H.ChanSchoolofPublicHealth; AssociateDirector,CenterforCommunicableDiseaseDynamics

SatchitBalsari

AssistantProfessorofEmergencyMedicine,HarvardMedicalSchool; EmergencyClinician,BethIsraelDeaconessMedicalCenter

AndrewSchroeder VicePresidentofResearchandAnalysis,DirectRelief

Team

AbhishekBhatia ResearchScientist,CrisisReady PhDStudent,CarolinaHealthInformaticsProgram,UniversityofNorth CarolinaatChapelHill

NeilSinghBedi ResearchScientist,CrisisReady MedicalStudent,BostonUniversitySchoolofMedicine

JenniferChan ResearchAdvisor,CrisisReady AssociateProfessorandDirectorofGlobalEmergencyMedicineat NorthwesternUniversityFeinbergSchoolofMedicine

CalebDresser ResearchScientist,CrisisReady Instructor,HarvardMedicalSchool;AssistantDirector,BethIsrael DeaconessMedicalCenterClimateandHumanHealthFellowship

ShenyueJia DataScientist,CrisisReady ResearchFellowandAdjunctProfessorofGeographicInformation Systems(GIS),ChapmanUniversitySchmidCollegeofScienceand Technology

MathewKiang ResearchScientist,CrisisReady AssistantProfessor,EpidemiologyandPopulationhealth,Stanford UniversitySchoolofMedicine

NishantKishore ResearchScientist,CrisisReady AnalyticsandModelingFellow,CentersforDiseaseControland Prevention(CDC)

JoeNallen CommunicationsManager,CrisisReady HarvardT.H.ChanSchoolofPublicHealth

SraavyaSambara ResearchIntern,CrisisReady Bachelor ofArtsStudent,HarvardCollege

KoissiSavi PostdoctorateFellow,CrisisReady HarvardT.H.ChanSchoolofPublicHealth

SarahTsay ResearchScientist,CrisisReady DoctorateofPublicHealthCandidateatHarvardT.H.ChanSchoolof PublicHealth;DirectorofEmergencyPreparednessatMassGeneral Brigham

AkashYadav DataScientist,CrisisReady HarvardT.H.ChanSchoolofPublicHealth

RegionalCollaborators&CrisisReadyGrantRecipients

Hsiao-HanChang HarvardT.H.ChanSchoolofPublicHealth

VladimirCorredorEspinel UniversidadNacionaldeColombia

Pamela Martinez

SchoolofMolecular&CellularBiologyattheUniversityofIllinoisUrbanaChampaign

RichardMaude MahidolOxfordTropicalMedicineResearchUnit;NufeldDepartmentof MedicineatUniversityofOxford;HarvardT.H.ChanSchoolofPublic Health

AmyWesolowski JohnsHopkinsBloombergSchoolofPublicHealth

AdvisoryBoard

MercèCrosas SecretaryofOpenGovernment,InstitutionalGovernmentofCatalonia

FrancescaDominici

ProfessorofBiostatistics,Population,andDataScience,HarvardT.H. ChanSchoolofPublicHealth;Co-Director,DataScienceInitiative, HarvardUniversity

JenniferLeaning

SeniorResearchFellow,FXBCenterforHealthandHumanRights, ProfessorofPractice,HarvardT.H.ChanSchoolofPublicHealth; FacultyMember,DepartmentofEmergencyMedicineatBrighamand Women’sHospital

Partners

DJPatil BoardMember,DevotedHealth;SeniorFellow,TheBelferCenterfor ScienceandInternationalAfairs,HarvardUniversity;FormerUnited StatesChiefDataScientist

Stefaan Verhulst

Co-FounderandChiefResearchandDevelopmentOfcer,TheGovernance Lab(GovLab),NewYorkUniversity

SupportedBy

DataforGood