On Point Research Report 2014
Progression of the East Growth Potential and Urban Development Regeneration of East India
GDP of the Eastern States The seven eastern states continue to have a good share of gross state domestic product (GSDP), which has been hovering at around 20% of India’s GDP. The healthy contribution of these states to the country’s 2
Progression of the East
Figure 1: Y-o-Y Growth of GSDP (2012-13) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10%
Overview of the Eastern States The eastern region of India has witnessed substantial economic growth in recent times and is now moving ahead with confidence. This region is endowed with numerous rich mineral deposits, forests and productive & fertile soil, as well as rich cultural heritage. Given the available natural resources and quality manpower, the key growth engines have been iron & steel, power generation, mining, tourism, agricultural goods, food processing, infrastructure building, IT/ITeS, petrochemicals, leather processing, real estate, retailing and cement production. The eastern states have immense potential for large-scale production and export of spices, jute and other agricultural products. The spurt in investment in these states is an indication of the eastern region’s bright future for trade and industry. The growth of the IT/ITeS, healthcare and tourism sectors, coupled with a rapidly developing educational sector, gives the real estate sector a unique opportunity for growth.
GDP in the past two decades has given them a strong foundation for future growth. By focusing on the core competences of their states, the respective state governments will be able to sustain growth in the years to come. All of the states have had y-o-y GDP growth that was higher than that of the country as a whole. Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Assam were the three states that showed growth of more than 10% y-o-y in 2012–2013.
In the Indian context, real estate, coupled with infrastructure development, is an asset class that demands specialised skills, and the complexity increases with information imbalances and less transparency in many of the Indian cities. It is noteworthy to mention that prior to the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008, the macroeconomic scenario was of robust appreciation of the main indicators of price, absorption (sales) and supply (new launches and construction activities) in the country. However, the indicators showed a marked correction between the GFC and post-GFC. As a result, identifying select destinations that are in the form of emerging or growing cities and are likely to be well-supported by excellent infrastructural development has now become the key for future growth across India. According to our assessment, these locations in eastern India offer options in real estate that, coupled with their relative lower price levels and infrastructure growth, provide the incentive for future returns.
Source: Planning Commission of India
Figure 2: Share of GSDP 2011-12
Figure 3: Share of GSDP 2012-13
Seven Eastern States
Seven Eastern States
Rest of the states
Rest of the states
Source: Planning Commission of India
Source: Planning Commission of India
Pan-India Infrastructure Initiatives Benefitting the Eastern States
Utility infrastructure and transportation access to regional economic centres as well as local growth nodes are key economic development catalysts. The augmentation of rail capacity, with the railways being the backbone of the transport infrastructure, development of urban and rural roads, progress toward the development of the port sector and modernisation of airports are going to be the key for future growth not only for the cities, but also for the interior areas, as they are getting
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into mainstream development with these initiatives. State and local governments commonly offer economic development incentives in an effort to entice large employers in exchange for increased employment with the prospective economic growth. The combination of economic development incentives and the quality of the infrastructure often determine a prospective employerâ€™s choice between two cities or states.
The National Highways Development Project (NHDP) will upgrade, rehabilitate and widen major highways, and different phases will include the development of the Golden Quadrilateral as well as the North-South and East-West corridors, providing the eastern states better communications.
The Indian government has decided to set up 51 new smaller airports with the aim of boosting the civil aviation sector and increasing air links to Tier II and Tier III cities, including many of the eastern cities.
The eastern ports in India, including Paradip, Dhamra, Haldia and Kolkata, have been gaining importance in recent years with the governmentâ€™s Look East policy and the growing trade with China, Philippines, Indonesia and other Asian economies.
Project execution for the proposed Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC)- incorporating goods movement through the railways- has begun, and the initial work of 1,110 km covers two legs of the Eastern Corridor, benefitting East India.
Progression of the East
Infrastructure and Real Estate This report attempts to highlight the relationship of infrastructure and real estate and the interesting developments in policy and infrastructure that reconfirms the potential and bright future of the cities as well as the seven states. In the following pages, we have identified the eastern states of Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal before getting into major city wise details of these states.
The RBI study on â€œState Finances - A study of budgets of 2013-14â€? underlined performance of some of the eastern states. In Chhattisgarh (first), it is 20.7 per cent whereas all states average (NSC) is 11.4 per cent. On this parameter, Bihar is second (16.8), Madhya Pradesh and Goa third (15.7) and Jharkhand is fourth (14.7).
Progression of the East
• NTPC Limited has planned to construct a 2,640 MW power plant at Barethi with an estimated cost of INR 180 billion.
• An RBI study shows that Chhattisgarh’s debt sustainability has been the best among Indian states despite its heavy expenditure on development and the social sector.
• Gwalior, Singrauli, Burhanpur, Khandwa, Jabalpur, Sidhi, and Shahdol would obtain new smaller airports. • The state is to set up 27 new industrial estates by 2017 in Bhopal, Vidisha, Indore, Khandwa, Dhar, Jhabua, Jabalpur, Katni, Dewas, Ujjain, Neemach, Gwalior and Morena • Audyogik Kendra Vikas Nigam (AKVN) would come up with a dedicated special economic zone in Rau for gems and jewellery industry over 116 Ha in PPP.
• The government has approved the setting up of SEZs in Naya Raipur and Rajnandgaon districts. • Coal India Limited is to develop Kushmunda coal mine in Korba with INR 76 billion of investment. • Bhilai steel plant is being expanded to 7 million tonne per annum capacity with an investment of about INR 174 billion.
• The Asian Development Bank and the Government of India have signed USD 125.2 million loan for the improvements of 230 km roads in the North East Region. This project is expected to be completed by 2019.
• The Government has incorporated land allocation and several incentive schemes in its draft industrial policy that will be offered to industrialists who wish to invest in the state.
• The Government of India has approved three highway projects in Assam involving INR 21 billion.
• Some state governments including West Bengal are proposing a revival of the STPI scheme instead of the SEZs
• Lakhipur to Bhanga of the Barak River was announced as the sixth national waterway in 2013.
• The Government proposed to undertake widening of 1,000km road in 2014-15 at a cost of INR 12.5 billion
• The Union government approved the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) assisted INR 12 billion Guwahati sewerage project.
• Work on NTPCs INR 80 billion 1320 MW Katwa thermal power plant project is to begin soon.
• The Government would provide 200 acres of land near the upcoming International Nalanda University to set up an IT city, the first of its kind in Bihar.
• Orissa has emerged as the second state after Gujarat in the implementation of port projects under the public-private partnership (PPP) model.
• Bihar Government linked all district headquarters to Patna by road.
• Brahmapur, Rourkela and Kendujhar would obtain smaller airports
• Pirpainti Bijli Co. would set up two 660 MW thermal power project in Bhagalpur at a cost of INR 68 billion
• The Orissa Government earmarked INR 1 billion for railway infrastructure project in budget 2013-14.
• Bihar State Housing Board is to launch biggest real estate project in Patna at affordable prices.
• The Government is planning to set up a riverine port in the Mahanadi for INR 5 billion through PPP mode.
Jharkhand • The state’s Industrial Policy-2012 envisaged thrust in four sectors including IT, agricultural production & food processing, auto components manufacturing and textiles. The policy proposed incentives such as providing land at subsidised cost in industrial areas and cash benefits for IT/ITeS for the first five years of operation. • Forty-two slums of four cities - Ranchi, Dhanbad, Bokaro and Jamshedpur - will soon get ‚ ‘slum free’ tag. • The Union government has agreed to sanction another 3,000 km rural roads to Jharkhand under the central scheme.
Progression of the East
Real Estate as Growth Indicators in Cities
The real estate profile of the cities mostly depends on investment grade properties of sufficient size and quality to be considered Grade A stock. Grade A commercial and retail properties are by developers of repute and have major facilities and amenities, such as HVAC, lifts, power backup, as well as building intelligence. Grade A residential properties are also projects by developers with an existing good track record and have other upmarket modern amenities and facilities.
Kolkata (West Bengal)
Population (Urban agglomeration)
As a whole, real estate could be identified as an indicator of the growth and wealth being generated by the city and states. In addition, office space is an indicator of economic performance, job creation and expansion. Retail real estate is an indicator of consumer spending and changing lifestyles, while residential is an indicator of prosperity and the growing capability of the population to buy accommodation for personal use. We have highlighted Kolkata in the state of West Bengal as the main eastern city with the maximum potential to grow in the long term and have explained the scene with the analysis of the Grade A stock of the city’s real estate market.
Office: Increasing Space Overall Grade A office stock in Kolkata stood at 17.3 million sq ft at end-2013 The market for office space in Kolkata is primarily driven by the IT/ ITeS sector, as the city offers large areas of office space at affordable rents (below USD 1 per sq ft per month), which provides occupiers with lower operational costs. The city witnessed modest absorption since 2009, barring 2012, when Kolkata observed a surge in the momentum of absorption with major IT/ ITeS companies in the peripheral business districts of Salt Lake Sector V and Rajarhat. However, the current supply seems to be running ahead of demand in the coming years. 6
Progression of the East
Metropolitan Rank Among Indian Cities Source: Census of India, 2011
Kolkata Office Real Estate: Fact Sheet • The overall vacancy rate in the city’s office stock is 24% • The peripheral business districts contain more than 85% of the total stock • The stock is likely to grow to 28 million sq ft by 2018 Office Realty Kolkata: A Closer Look (‘000 sqm) 500
Retail: Increasing Momentum With more than 5 million sq ft of organised retail space, the city is now home to luxury retailers The retail activity in Kolkata has gained notable momentum in recent years, and this is expected to continue in the medium term. With a dearth of mall supply as opposed to an increasing demand, a healthy absorption is anticipated in the coming years. The retail sector in Kolkata witnessed an increase in absorption with large addition of new stocks in 2013, followed by three continuous slow years. Going forward, the city is likely to witness healthy growth in medium term with malls to become operational. Locations in and around the prime city areas are the major destinations for brand names on the back of high disposable consumer income base.
Residential: On Target Residential markets in Kolkata have remained resilient in the past few quarters, relative to the subdued movements recorded in the sales volumes of other cities. In addition to the reputed national and regional developers, many new developers have entered the residential market mostly in the peripheral submarkets. The central and surrounding submarkets continued to be the zone for luxury projects in the city. The overall absorption levels in the city remained modest in the last two years compared to the past years on the back of the better performance of mid-segment and affordable residential units.
Kolkata Retail Real Estate: Fact Sheet • Vacancy rate in the city’s retail stock is at 10% • By 2016, the stock is likely to grow to 7 million sq ft
Retail Realty Kolkata: A Closer Look (‘000 sqm) 50
Kolkata Residential Real Estate: Fact Sheet • New launches in the affordable and mid-segment continue to dominate the Kolkata Residential market • Absorption rates gain momentum with the prudent pricing strategies adopted by developers Residential Realty Kolkata: A Closer Look (Active Stock and Vacant Stock)(Unit)
(Net Absorption & new Addition) (Units)
4Q11 1Q12 Active Stock
• Five Metro projects, including the 15-km East-West Metro, 17-km Joka-BBD Bag stretch, 32-km Airport - New Garia stretch, NoaparaBarasat and Dumdum-Barrackpore, are in various stages of planning and implementation • The Kolkata bus rapid transport system (BRTS) and the widening and extension of the Eastern Metropolitan Bypass are underway • A new terminal of Kolkata Airport was completed in 2013 • The Parama Island and Batanagar flyover construction work is underway
2Q12 3Q12 Vacant Stock
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 Net Absorption New Addition
Hotels: Significant Progress
In addition to the existing hotel stock of the city, which includes The Oberoi Grand, ITC Sonar, Taj Bengal, Taj Gateway, Park Hotel, and Hotel Hindustan International, many new hotels, including JW Marriott, Courtyard by Marriott, Novotel, Radisson Blu, Westin, and ITC Sonar II, have either been proposed or have been under different stages of construction in the last few quarters. Progression of the East
Other Cities with Potential for Growth
It is envisaged that there should be sustainable development for East India with a focus on the development of infrastructure and the pool of skilled workers. All the states under consideration are either developing or have already developed master plans and comprehensive development plans for their emerging cities and towns in an effort to promote overall development. Similar initiatives have helped the growth of Kolkata in the major sectors of IT/ITeS, while the major strengths of the states are the growing availability of skilled workers and good social & physical infrastructure. Based on growth dynamics and apart from the city of Kolkata, we have identified the following cities as emerging and placed them on our ‘watch list’. These cities have the potential to emerge as tomorrow’s rising real estate destinations in India. The list includes Raipur (Chhattisgarh), Patna (Bihar), Bhubaneswar (Orissa), Ranchi (Jharkhand), Guwahati (Assam) and Indore and Bhopal (Madhya Pradesh).
Table 1: Population and Population-based Rankings of Other Major Eastern Cities POPULATION
BHOPAL Source: Census, 2011
Progression of the East
POPULATIONfrom highest to lowest
Chhattisgarh Real Estate Overview: Raipur is the capital and most populous city of Chhattisgarh. The city has steel, coal, power, aluminium and cement industries. Raipur is mainly an industrial city and is well connected with almost all major cities in India by road, rail and air. The cityâ€™s real estate needs are influenced by the industriesâ€™ performances. Raipur is experiencing growth in mall culture with the presence of Central Mall, Magneto The Mall, CityMall 36 and City Center.
Major/Upcoming Locations: Naya Raipur, Pandri, Raipur Bypass and Shankar Nagar The Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) has given approval for the construction of the interstate metro rail link connecting Raipur and Durg. The cost of the entire project is estimated to be INR 200 billion Naya Raipur, which is about 20 km from Raipur, is in the process of becoming the fourth planned city in India The BRTS service will connect Raipur Railway Station to Naya Raipur, and is likely to be completed by end-2014
Real Estate Overview: Patna has led the real estate sector in Bihar and has witnessed rapid development over the past decade in residential sector developments. There has been major infrastructure development in the city - retail spaces such as P&M Mall have been spurred by the growth in sales of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG). There have been further expansions by industries, such as the service sector and green businesses.
Major/Upcoming Locations: Gandhi Maidan, Bailey Road, Boring Road and Sri Krishnapuri The Metro rail is expected to run on three routes by 2016 and cover a distance of 40 km at a cost of INR 80 billion Work on the 21.5 km Loknayak Ganga Path from Digha to Deedar Ganj along the river Ganga is likely to be completed within four years at a cost of about INR 18 billion The city will have a 6.5 km long walkway between Digha and Patna City. Twenty ghats along the walkway will be remodelled
Real Estate Overview: The countrywide growth in the real estate sector has now started to appear in North-East India. The city has fast emerged as an investment target, and mall culture has started taking shape. With growing demand, both the commercial and residential sectors have seen huge expansion. Kolkata-based Infinity and Ideal Group, along with large projects by local developers such as Brahmaputra Group, are the major developments across the city.
Major/Upcoming Locations: Guwahati Shillong Road, Zoo Road, RG Baruah Road and Beltala Metro rail project in Guwahati, with a cost of INR 140 billion, is likely to start in 2015. Stretches of 64.50 km, 56.30 km and 75.50 km will be covered in Phases I, II and III, respectively The Guwahati Metropolitan Development Authority (GMDA) has launched the Brahmaputra Riverfront Development Project to beautify the riverside at a cost of INR 3 billion The government has sanctioned INR 16 billion for a bridge over the Brahmaputra, between Narengi and Kuruwa
Real Estate Overview: Bhubaneswar is the capital of Orissa. While the CBD of the city accommodates mostly administrative offices, the suburb of Chandrasekharpur is the IT hub that the state has been promoting over the years. The residential real estate market is witnessing increasing growth. Various projects in different sizes are being developed not only by local but also regional developers. Projects include a mixed-use development by Delhi Land and Finance (DLF) and the residential project Tata Ariana by Tata Housing, along with developments by local developers such as Utkal Group.
Major/Upcoming Locations: Janpath, Jaidev Bihar, Chandrasekharpur and Baramunda The city has moved a step closer to its dream of having an international airport with the state government selecting over 2,000 acres of land, around 40 km south of the capital, on National Highway 5 (NH 5) Bhubaneswar Development Authority is planning to set up a ring road project in the city with Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JnNURM) funds Unified Metropolitan Transport Authority (UMTA) has given its in-principle approval for implementation of Phase I of the BRTS on a 29.6-km route from Biju Patnaik Airport to Nandankanan in the capital city at a cost of INR 6 billion Progression of the East
Jharkhand Real Estate Overview: Ranchi, being the state capital, is the trade hub of the region and attracts investment from all over Jharkhand. This, coupled with an improvement in infrastructure, has resulted in increased residential and growing retail demand. The areas around Ranchi stadium is becoming a growth zone for residential projects
Major/Upcoming Locations: Ranchi Main Road, Kankey Road, Ratu Road, Harmu Road and Bariatu The 100-km Ranchi–Bokaro–Dhanbad Expressway requires 450 ha of land. It is to be constructed on the build-finance-operatetransfer (BFOT) basis by ‘State Highways Authority of Jharkhand (SHAJ) in three phases. In Phase I, the expressway is planned to be constructed between Ranchi and Bokaro Ranchi’s Birsa Munda Airport will obtain three more parking bays, taking the total number up to eight. With the new facilities, Ranchi is likely to be the only airport in the Tier II cities to have eight parking bays
Madhya Pradesh Real Estate Overview: Indore is one of the fastest-growing cities in India and is also known as the commercial capital of central India. Given its proximity to key metropolitan areas such as Delhi and Mumbai, it is a favoured destination for industry and commerce. The city has witnessed remarkable growth in its real estate sector in the recent past with the construction of commercial and high-rise residential complexes and shopping malls. National real estate players including DLF, Suncity (ZEE Group), Omaxe, Sahara, Parsvnath, Ansal API and Emaar MGF have already launched their residential projects in Indore.
Major/Upcoming Locations: Super Corridor, Vijay Nagar, AB Road, Khandwa Road, Rau and Indore Bypass BRTS corridor became operational in 2013, and within seven months, it was nominated for the Sustainable Transport Award of International Association for Truancy and Dropout Prevention (IAITDP) Infosys recently received notification of approval for its proposed SEZ in the Super Corridor area of Indore. The company will develop the SEZ in a 130-acre area Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has announced plans to set up campus with investment of INR 5 billion in two phases
Madhya Pradesh Real Estate Overview: Bhopal, the capital of Madhya Pradesh, is known for its industrial economy, which is dominated by the heavy electrical major Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL). Services and administration are the other major employers in the city, while the strategic location is attracting residential development.
Major/Upcoming Locations: Hosangabad Road, Kolar Road, Ayodhya Bypass and Airport Road The ‘Urban Administration and Development Department’ has approved the INR 130 billion Light Metro project for Bhopal. The project will have a track length of 78 km and is expected to be completed within the next five years The pilot corridor of ‘My Bus’, a BRTS, was launched in September 2013 and covers a length of 23.95 km from the Misrod Section to the Bairagarh Section
10 Progression of the East
The Future Ahead
Increasing urbanisation, with people moving from rural areas into cities, often motivated by economic factors, formulate the growth of smaller cities. While the existing large city of Kolkata grows bigger and bigger, most of the cities in East India are of manageable scale and early initiatives of providing good infrastructure and the availability of inexpensive land can help transform them into places of well-planned growth. Therefore, this is a good time to start developing real estate which will promote the long-term growth of the Eastern states. The cyclical nature of the Indian property markets is expected to support development in the long term, benefitting the smaller cities in the eastern and central parts of the country. It will make good business sense to be a part of the growth of these cities, which have immense potential for real estate development, by taking a position now and enjoying the appreciation in prices going forward. However, any decision to invest in emerging areas should be backed by a complete analysis of the demand-supply forecasts and infrastructure plans for the region.. Cities of the Future In addition to the cities mentioned above, we would also like to name a few more that have the potential for long-term growth. They include Gwalior, Jabalpur and Ujjain in Madhya Pradesh, Bhilai in Chhattisgarh, Gaya in Bihar, Jamshedpur and Dhanbad in Jharkhand, Cuttack in Orissa as well as Asansol-Durgapur and Siliguri in West Bengal. Real estate development coupled with infrastructure upgrading and improving connections with major cities can be observed in all these places.
Author Profile Ashutosh Limaye Head-Research and REIS firstname.lastname@example.org +91 22 3985 1319 Ashutosh Limaye is responsible for overseeing Research and REIS business of JLL. He is also responsible for effective business development, selection, grooming and growth of professionals in the research division. He has 14 years of experience, including one and half years of post graduation in planning with specialization in Urban Planning. His contributions include real estate market intelligence and forecasting, formulations of economic and physical plans, assessments of policies, legislations and regulatory mechanisms for delivery of infrastructure services, study of urban governance initiatives for urban management programmes, identification of appropriate modes of private sector participation in infrastructure delivery for large-scale infrastructure and township projects in the urban context., financial cost-benefit analyses, project formulation and appraisals, and urban land management. Sujash Bera Assistant Manager-Research and REIS email@example.com +91 33 2227 3293 Sujash Bera manages the Research and Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS) offerings for Kolkata. He joined JLL in 2012 and based out of Kolkata, he contributes to topical whitepapers, property market digest and research deliverables on the commercial, retail, residential and industrial real estate markets in India. Sujash is trained as a City Planner from Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur and has four years of experience. Progression of the East 11
About JLL Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE:JLL) is a professional services and investment management firm offering specialized real estate services to clients seeking increased value by owning, occupying and investing in real estate. With annual revenue of $4 billion, JLL operates in 70 countries from more than 1,000 locations worldwide. On behalf of its clients, the firm provides management and real estate outsourcing services to a property portfolio of 3.0 billion square feet. Its investment management business, LaSalle Investment Management, has $47.6 billion of real estate assets under management. JLL has over 50 years of experience in Asia Pacific, with over 27,500 employees operating in 80 offices in 15 countries across the region. The firm was named ‘Best Property Consultancy’ in three Asia Pacific countries at the International Property Awards Asia Pacific 2013, and won nine Asia Pacific Awards in the Euromoney Real Estate Awards 2013. For further information, please visit our website, www.jll.com. About JLL India JLL is India’s premier and largest professional services firm specializing in real estate. With an extensive geographic footprint across 11 cities (Ahmedabad, Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Kochi, Chandigarh and Coimbatore) and a staff strength of over 6800, the firm provides investors, developers, local corporates and multinational companies with a comprehensive range of services including research, analytics, consultancy, transactions, project and development services, integrated facility management, property and asset management, sustainability, industrial, capital markets, residential, hotels, health care, senior living, education and retail advisory. The firm was named the Best Property Consultancy in India (5 Star Winner) at the International Property Awards - Asia Pacific for 2012-13. For further information, please visit www.joneslanglasalle.co.in For more information about Research Ashutosh Limaye Head, Research and REIS firstname.lastname@example.org +91 98211 07054
COPYRIGHT @ JONES LANG LASALLE 2014. All rights reserved. The content of this publication has been compiled from the various sources acknowledged. The information is from sources we deem reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. This report has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. We stress that forecasting is a problematical exercise which at best should be regarded as an indicative assessment of possibilities rather than absolute certainties.
Published on May 21, 2014