Page 1

2018

Midterm Election Guide Generational trends and the current political landscape


Contents About this project + guide / 5 Demographics / 7 A summary of characteristics of a 2018 millennial voter / 9 Generalized political party beliefs / 18 Key Issues / 21 Environment / 23 Economy / 29 Foreign policy / 35 Immigration / 41 Treatment of minority groups / 47 Gun policy / 55 Healthcare / 63 Abortion + women’s rights / 69 Marijuana / 73 Sexual harassment / 77 Leadership Approval / 81 2018 Midterm Election Landscape / 85 Senate / 91 House of Representative / 93 Vote! Vote! Vote! / 95 References / 97


4


5

About this project + guide Although this guide was designed with the purpose of educating and engaging millennials in their right to vote, the information presented is for any voter looking to understand where we stand at 2018 midterm time. Through an initial survey of college-aged students, the vast majority noted that they do not typically vote because they feel like they don’t know enough about the issues at stake and are not educated on the purpose of midterm elections. They further noted which issues are most important to them, which are the issues that are focused on in this guide: the environment, the economy, immigration, foreign policy, the treatment of minority groups, gun policy, healthcare, and women’s rights. While these issues surfaced as top priorities to millennials, you will see that these topics resonate across generations. As a student-teacher team, we have created a guide that uses real data from reputable polling institutes in combination with timelines of key events, definitions of key terms, and explanation of important issues that affect us all. We recognize that data of all forms is not ever perfect, but are confident that the information in this guide is presented as accurately as possible. We invite you to process the information in this guide, become familiar with today’s political landscape and make an informed decision in November as part of your critical right to vote for our elected leaders. Every vote counts and helps determine the direction of our future. Lastly, we would like to thank Quinnipiac University’s QUIP-RS committee and the entire 2018 QUIP-RS cohort for their support in recognizing the potential of this project and making this collaboration possible.

Christina Popik

Courtney Marchese

Project Designer

Project Mentor

BA candidate ‘19

Associate Professor

Graphic + Interactive Design

Graphic + Interactive Design

Quinnipiac University

Quinnipiac University


6


7

Demographics Before jumping into the issues at stake, it is important to understand the current demographics of the U.S. and how they have evolved over time. The current population is more diverse and educated than ever, yet the younger the average American is, the less likely they are to vote.


8


9

A Summary of Characteristics of a 2018 Millennial Voter Traits chosen based off of data trends identified in the guide.

Altruistic

Accepting of minority groups

Millennials are more focused on the well-being of all Americans than other generations. They are more likely to support a government that provides more aid to those in need such as through universal healthcare, economic equality, etc.

Millenials are generally more open to people of all races and sexual orientations specifically shown with their heightened support for allowing immigration to the U.S. and greater support for same-sex marriage legalization.

Passion for equality

Diverse

Millennials find that prejudice against minority groups is more serious of a problem than other generations.

There is more racial diversity among Millennials with an increase of Hispanics, blacks and Asians. Millennials are also more likely to identify as LGBT.

Open-minded

Romantically-independent

Millennials are more open to exploring a new perspective. Because they follow less strict traditional ideals, Millennials offer greater support for abortion. As far as foreign affairs, Millenials are more likely to encourage good diplomacy and loyalty to allies over military action.

Millennials are more likely than any other generation while they were ages 21-36 to never be married. Additionally, the amount of Millennials who still live at their parents’ home ages 25-35 is higher than other generation during that age range.

Liberal-minded

Politically disengaged

Millennials are more likely to identify as Democrats or lean Democrat because they are more open to the U.S. evolving to address newer societal problems (like climate change, for example), shying away from the traditional ways of older generations.

Educated Millennials are more educated than any other generation at their age, more than doubling the amount Silents with a bachelor’s degree or more in 1964.

Although more educated, Millennials are less likely to go out and vote during both Midterm and Presidential elections.


10

Silent 8.9% (28.32 million)

U.S. Population by generation (per June 2016 National Data)

U.S. Population by Generation (per June 2016 National Data)

Generation (2017 age)

Millennial 24.7% (79.41 million)

Gen X 20.3% (65.72 million)

Gen Z (0-20)

Gen Z 21.5% (73.61 million)

Millennial (21-36) Gen X (37-52) Baby Boomer (53-71) Silents (72-89)

Baby Boomer 23.5% (75.52 million)

Silent 8.9% (28.32 million)

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2017 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS).

Generation age) NOTE: Members of the Silent Generation were ages 72 to 89 in 2017. Since the Current Population Survey aggregates those ages 85 and older (2017 into one category, outcomes for members of the Silent and Greatest generations cannot be separately shown. Gen Z (0-20) Millennial (21-36) Gen X (37-52) Baby Boomer (53-71)

Silents (72-89)(in millions) Populationwhen when the generations were ages 21-36 (in millions) Population the generations were ages 21-36

Population when the generations were ages 21-36 (in millions)

70.15

70.15 64.70 62.55

2017

64.70

62.55

2017

Generation (2017 age) Millennial (2017 (21-36) age) Generation Gen X (37-52)(21-36) Millennial Baby (53-71) GenBoomer X (37-52) Silent (72-89)

Baby Boomer (53-71) Silent (72-89)

1985

1985 2001

2001

1965

36.52

1965

36.52

The population size of Millennials has surpassed Baby Boomers, previously the largest generation Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1965, 1985, 2001 and 2017 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS). NOTE: Population shown for Boomers is 16 years for comparison with Millennials, but Boomers actually span 19 years. Likewise, the population shown for the Silent Generation is 16 years for comparison with Millennials, but the Silents actually span 18 years.


11

Marriage rate in 2017 among the generations

Marriage rate Population in 2017 among the generations when the generations were ages 21-36 (in millions) Baby Boomer 66%

Generation Generation(2017 (2017age) age)

Silent/Greatest 52%

Millennial Millennial(21-36) (21-36)

70.15

Gen GenXX(37-52) (37-52)

64.70

BabyBoomer Boomer(53-71) (53-71) Baby Silent (72-89) (72+) Silent/Greatest

62.55

2017

1985

Gen X 66%

2001

36.52

1965

Millennial 37%

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2017 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS). NOTE: Members of the Silent Generation were ages 72 to 89 in 2017. Since the Current Population Survey aggregates those ages 85 and older into one category, outcomes for members of the Silent and Greatest generations cannot be separately shown.

Marital status when the generations were ages 21-36 Marital status when the generations were 21-36 Generation (2017 age). Generation (2017 age). Millennial Millennial (21-36) (21-36) Gen X Gen X (37-52) (37-52) Baby Boomer Baby Boomer (53-71) (53-71) Silent Silent (72-89) (72-89)

Year Year 2017 2017

Marital status when the generations were 21-36 37

2001 2001

48

1985 1985

56

1965 1965

Marital status Marital status Married Married Seperated/divorced Seperated/divorced

78

80 80

60

60

37

48

56

20

20

43

11

11

0

17

0

57

43

33

33

5

5

40

57

8

8

78 40

6

6

17 20

20

40

40

60

60

Responses Responses (%) (%)

Widowed Widowed Never married married Never

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2017 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS). NOTE: Ages shown are as of 2017. Members of the Silent Generation were ages 72 to 89 in 2017. Since the Current Population Survey aggregates those ages 85 and older into one category, outcomes for members of the Silent and Greatest generations cannot be separately shown. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. Shares less than 0.5% not shown.


12

Percentage who identify as LGBT Percentage who identify as LGBT

Percentage who identify as LGBT

100%

100%

7.3% 3.2% 7.3%

Age Age

2.4%

3.2% 2.4%

18-36

1.4%

18-36 37-51

1.4%

37-51

52-70

52-70

71+ 71+ Total people who identify Total people who with a sexual orientation

identify with a sexual orientation Young people are more likely to identify as LGBT.

Source: Pew Research Center; Gallup Dailytracking survey (2016).


13

Generational breakdown of males and females in the labor force when ages 21-36

Labor force when men and women were ages 21-36

Generation (2017 age)

Year

Sex

2017Labor force Female when

Millennial (21-36) Generation (2017 age)

Year

Sex Male

Millennial

2017

Female

Gen X (21-36) (37-52) Gen X (37-52)

Baby Boomer (53-71) Baby

2001

Silent (72-89)

79 71

Female

2001

1985 1985

1965 1965

Male

Female

Male Female

Work Work Armed forces Armed forces

Civilianemployed employed Civilian

4

82

Male

87

4

87 80

80

60

24

5 10 6 8

29 8

29 8

3

40

3

40

4

15

4

24

6 8

26

15

4

82

Female

26

66 5 10 66

Female Male

84

84

Female Male Male

72

5

72

4 5

79

Male

Boomer (53-71)

Silent (72-89)

men and women were71ages 21-36

58

58

4 6

4 6

60

40

20

40

0

20

20

Responses Responses % (%)

0

40

20

60

40

60

Responses (%)

Unemployed Unemployed

Not force Notininlabor labor force

Females in the labor force have more than doubled since 1964.

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2017 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS). NOTE: Ages shown are as of 2017. Members of the Silent Generation were ages 72 to 89 in 2017. Since the Current Population Survey aggregates those ages 85 and older into one category, outcomes for members of the Silent and Greatest generations cannot be separately shown. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. Shares less than 0.5% not shown.


14

Percentage of those ages 21-36 who have completed at least a bachelor’s sex. Percentage of those ages 21 to 36degree, who haveby completed at least a bachelor's degree, by sex

Generation (2017 age)

Year

Millennial (21-36)

Sex Female

36

2017

Male

29 Gen X (37-52)

28

2001 24

Baby Boomer (53-71)

20

1985

22 Silent (72-89)

9

1965

15 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Responses (%)

Overall education levels have increased over time, with the amount of females with bachelor’s degrees surpassing men in Gen X and Millennial generations.

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1965, 1985, 2001 and 2017 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS).


15

year-olds with a more

Percentage of employed 25-to 29-year-olds Percentage of employed 25-to 29-year-olds with a with a bachelor’s degree or more bachelor's degree or more

Generation (2016 age) Millennial (20-35)

Generation (2016 age Millennial (20-35)

Gen X (36-51) Baby Boomer (52-70) Silent (71-88)

Gen X (36-51)

Total employed

Baby Boomer (52

100%

Silent (71-88) Total employed

40% 2016

2000

32% 26%

1985

1964

16%

Younger generations have a greater likelihood of being employed with a college education.

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 1964, 1985, 2000 and 2016 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplements (IPUMS). NOTE: “Employed” refers to those who were at work in the week prior to survey or who were temporarily absent from their jobs.


16

U.S. Population by race (per July 1, 2017 Census Data)

US Population by Race (per July 1, 2017 Census Data)

Ethnicity when the generations were ages 21-36

Generation (2017 age) White 76.6%

Year

Millennial (21-36)

2017

Gen X (37-52)

2001

Baby Boomer (53-71)

1985

Silent (72-89)

1965

Hispanic 18.1% 3 7

13

21

Ethnicity White

Black 13.4%

56

Hispanic Black

6

13

3

12

40

30

20

Other

75

10

11 50

Asian

62

19

84

4

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Responses (%)

Asian 5.8%

Other 1.5%

Based on a total population of 325,719,178

Ethnicity when the generations were ages 21-36

Generation Generation (2017 age)

Year (2017 age) Year Millennial 2017 Millennial (21-36) 2017 (21-36) Gen X Gen X(37-52)

(37-52) Baby Baby Boomer (53-71) Boomer (53-71) Silent (72-89) Silent (72-89)

Ethnicity when the generations were ages 21-36 Ethnicity when the generations were ages 21-36 3 7 13 3 7 13

2001

6

2001

6

13

21

13

11

1965

11 50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

Other

84

4

84

4 10

10

Asian Other

75 75

10

10

1965

Black Asian

62

12

12

Hispanic Black

62

19

3

White Hispanic

56 56

19

3

1985

1985

21

Ethnicity Ethnicity White

0

0

10

20

30

(%) 10 Responses 20 30

40

40

50

60

70

80

50

60

70

80

90

90

Responses (%)

Millennials are more diverse than any other generation at ages 21-26.

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1965, 1985, 2001 and 2017 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS). NOTE: Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. Shares less than 0.5% not shown.


17

Ideology among the generations Generation (2018 age) Millennial (22-37)

Ideology Year 2004

9

2011

10

2017 Gen X (38-53)

32

25

32

1994

4

2004

10

2011

Silent (73-90)

6

2011

7

2017

17

20

27

34

16

7

49

27

46

18

42

21

7

2017

12

22

28

19

40

11 7

24

32 20

8

16

39

16

3

25

53 15

7

13

48

19

3

6

19

2011

60

Consistently conservative

41

14

Mostly conservative

10

24

22

Mixed

4

11 3

21

5

14

49

1994 2004

45

Mostly liberal

16

16

2004

9

52

26

1994

49

31

25

9

2017 Baby Boomer (54-72)

28

Ideology Consistently liberal

14

24

0

20

15 40

60

Responses (%) Source: Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted June 8-18 and June 27-July 9, 2017. NOTE: Ideological consistency based on a scale of 10 political values questions.

Party identification among the generations Party identiďŹ cation

Political party Democrat

Generation (2018 age) 35

Millennial (22-37)

24

15

17

Lean Democratic Lean Republican

Gen X (38-53)

31

Baby Boomer (54-72)

17

35

Silent (73-90)

13 33

60

50

40

30

18 16

10 20

10

0

10

Republican

30

14

Responses (%) Source: Pew Research Center surveys of U.S. adults conducted in 2017. NOTE: Based on registered voters. Those who do not lean toward a party not shown.

25

38 20

30

40

50


18

Generalized political party beliefs welcoming immigrants is part of America’s identity

love is love, including gay marriage

support transgender rights

Change + diversity

science + evolution

Equality

Black Lives Matter

environmental regulations are essential to preserving planet

Big Government stricter gun control

government should provide universal healthcare

Democrat

Indep

(Progressive)

decreased military spending

Collectivism

support raising minimum wage taxes proportionate to income

re


19

marriage is between man and woman

pro-life gender is determined by sex at birth

stronger border control support 2nd Ammendment rights

Keep tradition alive

Freedom + free market increased military spending

Republican

pendent

(Traditional)

oppose raising minimum wage

Small Government Individualism

flat tax for all egardless of income

do not interfere with rights

decide healthcare plan for themselves

environmental regulations hurt business


20


21

Key issues Immigration

Treatment of minority groups

Gun policy

Environment

Healthcare

Abortion + women’s rights

Marijuana

Economy

Sexual harassment

Trump approval

Congress approval

Foreign policy


22

Democrats.org. (2018). Democrats.org. [online] Available at: https://www.democrats.org/ [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Environmental Defense Fund. (2018). The Clean Power Plan. [online] Available at: https://www.edf.org/clean-power-plan-resources [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. gop.com. (2018). [online] Available at: https://www.gop.com/the-2016-republican-party-platform/ [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Unfccc.int. (2018). The Paris Agreement | UNFCCC. [online] Available at: https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. US EPA. (2018). About EPA | US EPA. [online] Available at: https://www.epa.gov/aboutepa [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018].


23

Environment key terms

Global warming (climate change): a gradual increase in the overall temperature of the earth’s atmosphere generally attributed to the greenhouse effect caused by increased levels of carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, and other pollutants. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): an agency of the United States federal government whose mission is to protect human and environmental health. Paris Agreement (or Paris Climate Accord): an international agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to keep global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The US is the only country not currently signed to the agreement. Clean Power Plan: an Obama-era plan focused on reducing emissions from coal-burning power plants, increasing the use of renewable energy, and energy conservation.

key issues

Democrats say that “the best science tells us that without ambitious, immediate action to cut carbon pollution and other greenhouse gases, all of these impacts will be far worse in the future” (democrats.org) •

Defend pollution and efficiency standards, including the Clean Power Plan

Want corporations held accountable for misleading information on climate change

Committed to the standards and goals set out in the Paris Agreement

Support low-cost renewable energy and want to incentivize the production and use of wind, solar, and other renewable energy

Republicans argue that climate change “is far from this nation’s most pressing issue” and hurts businesses. (gop.com) •

Want to do away with the Clean Power Plan altogether

Demand a stop to US funding of the UN’s Framework on Climate Change

Reject the Paris Agreement as a global commitment to combat climate change

Support offshore and Arctic drilling for oil, mining, coal, fossil fuel production on public lands, nuclear power, and oil pipelines as ways to produce energy


24

Do the United States is doing enough to address climate change, Doyou youthink think the United States is doing enough to address climate change? doing too much, or do you think more needs to be done to address climate change? 18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

40

20 16

13

11 9

9 14 10 8

16 17 7

8

8

22

19 19 22 19

15 17 17 17 17

21 19 22 20 19 19 20 25 19 21 25 23 20 27 23

7 22 19 19 21 15 15 14 11 19 22 18 21 11 18 16 11 22 21 19 20 11 12 9 11

40

69

75 72 71 72 80 82

68

60 61 51 53 53 51 61 61 53 60 58 64 64 67 69 61 55 59 55 57 59 57

2/8/2017

20

3/22/2018

Responses (%)

0

15

55

58

60

3/22/2018

9/28/2017

6/7/2017

8/16/2017

4/5/2017

3/24/2017

3/8/2017

2/8/2017

3/22/2018

9/28/2017

6/7/2017

8/16/2017

4/5/2017

3/8/2017

3/24/2017

2/8/2017

3/22/2018

9/28/2017

6/7/2017

8/16/2017

4/5/2017

3/8/2017

3/24/2017

9/28/2017

6/7/2017

8/16/2017

4/5/2017

3/8/2017

3/24/2017

2/8/2017

80

Answer choices Doing too much Doing enough More to be done Indicate highpoints Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.

Timeline of Environmental Decisions – 1.25.17 through 8.1.18 1.25.17

3.2.17

Trump administration begins removing all references to climate change and science from the White House and EPA’s website.

An Obama-era request that fossil-fuel producers track methane emissions is halted.

2.28.17

3.24.17

An executive order is issued to review the waterways covered under the Clean Water Act that protects the water quality of certain waterways.

The Keystone XL pipeline is approved, connecting Alberta’s oil sands to refineries in Texas.


25

How concerned are you about climate change? How concerned are you about climate change?

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

80

60

57

53 46 48

48

60 48

50

48

45 42

45 35

38

38

47 46

46

40

48

43

43 41

40 45

36

40

35 36

29 32

30

35

20

0

7

9

14

10 9

20

10

8

5

11

35 41

43

42 48

44 48

42

35 35 33 32 29 30 33 29 31 32 30 27 29 29 29 30 32 28 28 25 28 28 28 28 28 30 27 26 25 25 24 25 23 23 22 21

8 10 10

17

10

27

18 19

10 13

9

14 11 13 11

12

9

13

17

7

11 9 20

16

18

16

14

8

20

11

16

17 16 17 15

13

18 14

3/22/2018

20

11/23/2016

Responses (%)

53

45 42 33 45 47 42 44 41 41

14

9 9 11 12 14 15 15 15 12 13 17 12 13 13 16 13 16 13 13 17 16 11 10

15 16 16 20

19

22

13 13 18

19 17 14 14 16

20

3/22/2018

9/28/2017

6/7/2017

8/16/2017

4/5/2017

3/8/2017

3/24/2017

2/8/2017

1/27/2017

1/12/2017

3/22/2018

11/23/2016

9/28/2017

6/7/2017

8/16/2017

4/5/2017

3/8/2017

3/24/2017

2/8/2017

1/27/2017

1/12/2017

9/28/2017

6/7/2017

8/16/2017

4/5/2017

3/8/2017

3/24/2017

2/8/2017

1/27/2017

1/12/2017

3/22/2018

11/23/2016

9/28/2017

6/7/2017

8/16/2017

4/5/2017

3/8/2017

3/24/2017

2/8/2017

1/27/2017

1/12/2017

11/23/2016

40

Concern level Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not concerned at all Not so concerned Indicate highpoints Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.

Source: National Geographic

3.28.17

4.28.17

6.1.17

An executive order is signed seeking to dismantle most climate change work enacted by the Obama administration, including the Clean Power Plan.

An executive order is signed to review bans on offshore and Arctic drilling for oil and gas.

The US pulls out of the Paris Climate Agreement.

3.29.17

5.23.17

EPA scientists’ plea to ban chlorpyrifos, an insecticide considered moderately hazardous to humans, is overruled. It is linked to neurological effects, persistent developmental disorders and autoimmune disorders.

Pres. Trump’s 2018 budget proposes massive cuts to scientific research, and environmental programs to protect air and water.


26

Is there solid evidence that the average temperature on Earth Is there solidsolid evidence that the average on there getting evidence that thethe average temperature on hasIsbeen warmer over pasttemperature few decade?

Earth has getting warmer over fewdecades? decades? Earthbeen has been getting warmer overthe the past past few 80

Answer choices Answer choices Human Humanactivity activity

80

Natural Naturalpatterns patterns

70

70

No solid evidence

No solid evidence

60

60

50

50

65

53

65

Responses (%)

30 20 10 0

Responses (%)

40

40

47

53

40

47

40

30 20 10

22

16

0

22

16

23

22

17

10

23

22

22

29

31

20

10

17

22

30

20 30

Millennial (22-37)

Millennial (22-37)

29 Gen X (38-53)

Gen X (38-53)

31

Baby Boomer (54-72)

Baby Boomer (54-72)

Silent (73-90)

Silent (73-90)

Source: Pew Research Center survey conducted June 8-18, 2017. NOTE: “Don’t know” responses not shown.

Timeline on Select Environmental Decisions – 1.25.17 through 8.1.18 8.22.17

1.25.18

The U.S.’s Climate Advisory Panel is disbanded.

The EPA drops a Clinton-era regulation on toxic air pollution.

8.17.17

12.18.17

An executive order is signed revoking flood standards incorporating rising sea levels predicted by climate change.

Pres. Trump drops climate change from list of national security threats.


27

Global Perspective: Top CO2 Contributors

Korea 2%

Russia 5%

Mexico 1%

India 6%

Saudi Arabia 2%

Germany 2% Aus. 1%

Brazil 1%

Canada 2%

China 28%

Indo. 2%

Iran 2%

S. Africa 1% Japan 4%

Japan 4% United States 15%

CO2 Emissions 361,262

10,291,927

Source: The World Bank Group

Source: National Geographic

5.9.18

7.19.18

The NASA Carbon Monitoring System, intended to improve monitoring of global carbon emissions, is cut.

Pres. Trump unveils proposal rolling back protections on endangered species.

4.2.18

7.5.18

The EPA starts rollback of car emissions standards.

EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt resigns after months of numerous ethics scandals.


28

Bloomberg.com. (2018). The Trade War Is On: Timeline of How We Got Here and What’s Next. [online] Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-06/the-trade-war-is-ontimeline-of-how-we-got-here-and-what-s-next [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Investopedia. (2018). Investopedia - Sharper Insight. Smarter Investing.. [online] Available at: https://www.investopedia.com/ [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018].


29

Economy key terms

Tariff: a tax or duty to be paid on a particular class of imports or exports. Trade war: a situation in which countries try to damage each other’s trade, typically by the imposition of tariffs or quota restrictions. The overall health of the economy is often measured by looking at: Unemployment rates: the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work. Inflation rates: the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising and, consequently, the purchasing power of currency is falling. Interest rates: the amount charged, expressed as a percentage of principal, by a lender to a borrower for the use of assets. Individuals most commonly borrow for home or car purchases, to start a business, pay college tuition, or larger business purchases such as land, buildings, machinery, trucks, etc. Gross domestic product (GDP): the total value of goods produced and services provided in a country during one year.

key issues

We notice the overall health of the economy day-to-day through: •

Gas prices

Job availability (hiring vs. lay-offs)

Hourly wages, salaries, benefit packages

Prices of food and everyday products

Access to social services

Loan rates (for education, cars, houses, etc.)


Would you describe the state of the na

30 18-34

35-49

80

How you describe theWould state of the nation’sthe economy you describe state oftoday? the nation's economy th 3

60

18-34

7

3

80

0 52 47 45

40 4 3 0 52 47 45

40

7 42

48

205

6

43

35

32

0

42

5 48

6

6 4

41 40

46

3

43

47

43

10

9 40

6

5

35

32

5

Responses (%)

60

43 43

4 41 40 9

46

3 43

47

4 2

43

35-49 4

63

6 53

3

3

4

60 55

46

48

1 6 58 46 13 19

5

7

10

53

51

5

4 2 3 43 43 43 9 13 7 10 3 6 8 10 134 536 7 4 63 60 6 58 58 60 57 55 53 3 53 51 51 51 49 47 46 46

40

4 48

10

9

9

2

34 36

30

20

2/22/2017

3/7/2017

3/22/2017

4/4/2017

4/20/2017

5/10/2017

6/28/2017

8/17/2017

10/11/2017

11/15/2017

11/22/2017

12/19/2017

1/10/2018

2/7/2018

3/7/2018

4/11/2018

6/2/2016

3/7/2018

4/4/2017

10/11/2017

2/7/2018

3/22/2017

1/10/2017

1/10/2018

3/7/2017

8/17/2017

12/19/2017

2/22/2017

6/2/2016

11/22/2017

1/10/2017

11/28/2016

11/15/2017

6/28/2017

10/11/2017

6/2/2016

11/28/2016

5/10/2017

8/17/2017

4/11/2018

4/11/2018

6/28/2017

3/7/2018

4/20/2017

5/10/2017

2/7/2018

Good

4/4/2017

Answer choices Excellent

4/20/2017

4/20/2017

4/4/2017

3/7/2017

3/22/2017

2/22/2017

1/10/2017

11/28/2016

21

1/10/2018

23

30

30

12/19/2017

13

60

3/22/2017

4 14

11/22/2017

15

3/7/2017

13

11/15/2017

45

42

44

2/22/2017

37

40

27 60

10/11/2017

31

1/10/2017

29

8/17/2017

31

6/28/2017

20

6/2/2016

40

11/28/2016

0

24 24 26 25 25 30 32 31 31 9 31 31 32 34 34 35 34 35 34 37 38 39 42 44 9 10 46 8 7 1 16 14 15 17 11 12 45 11 15 21 23 14 17 24 4 14 17 14 12 14 24 25 13 25 26 25 13 26 21 19 23 28 29 19 30 30 30 32 13 31 9 31 32 10 10 34 34 35 34 35 34 8 38 22 23 10 7 10 38 39 9 21 46 10 7 8 11 14 15 17 11 13 12 11 14 12 17 13 17 14 14 21 19 19 10 22 23 30 27

29

5/10/2017

20

6/2/2016

Responses (%)

4

Not so good Answer choices Excellent

Poor Indicate highpoints

Good Not so good Poor Indicate highpoints

Timeline on Tariffs – 1.23.18 through 8.1.18 1.23.18

6.5.18

The U.S. imposes a 30% tariff on solar panels made outside of the US, with China being the leading manufacturer.

Mexico implements retaliatory tariffs on about $3 billion worth of US goods.

6.1.18 The U.S. imposes a 25% tariff on steel, and 10% tariff on aluminum, on the European Union, Canada, and Mexico.


31

my these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? 50-64

65+ 6

3 7

5

58

55 54

3 1

51 53

8 56 57

65

56 56

54

55

50

56

60 49 34

2 3

7 11

5

7

10

15

13

8 9

63 2 59 54 53 56 54 51 50 51 49 52 48 49

53

38

26

25 38 37

28 30 31 10

14

28

25

22

24

26

5 10 13

9 12

10

13

23 8 11

14

19 19 7

27 12

36

37

10

32 31

13

22 25

25

30

28

10 12

32 30 33 35 9 10

9

25 26

22

27

23 9

9 10 8

11

10 12

13

12

26

5

20

4/11/2018

3/7/2018

2/7/2018

1/10/2018

12/19/2017

11/22/2017

11/15/2017

8/17/2017

10/11/2017

6/28/2017

5/10/2017

4/20/2017

4/4/2017

3/22/2017

1/10/2017

11/28/2016

6/2/2016

4/11/2018

3/7/2018

2/7/2018

1/10/2018

12/19/2017

11/22/2017

11/15/2017

10/11/2017

8/17/2017

6/28/2017

5/10/2017

4/20/2017

4/4/2017

3/22/2017

3/7/2017

2/22/2017

1/10/2017

34

11/28/2016

6/2/2016

51

4 3

13 11

4/11/2018

4

3

41

6 25 10

1

4 3

12

3/7/2017

30

36

60

5

2/22/2017

2

3

1

14 17

7

9

25

17

Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.

Source: Bloomberg.com

7.1.18

7.24.18

Canada retaliates with matching the U.S. tariff dollar-for-dollar and cover 299 US goods.

Pres. Trump administration announces $12 billion in emergency relief for American farmers slammed by the U.S.’s escalating trade disputes with China and other countries.

6.22.18

7.6.18

The European Union’s retaliatory tariffs (in consultation with the World Trade Organization) take effect on 180 types of products, equaling over $3 billion in US goods.

The U.S. adds a 25% tariff on more than 800 Chinese products, in which China retaliates and returned a similarly hefty tariffs.


32

Would you describe your financial situation these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? 18-34

80

13

8 6 80

60

18-34

9

13 8656 62 65

62

61 61

13 9

10

9 61 6110 11 6

40 Responses (%) Responses (%)

10

6 10 11

62

57

60

35-49

50-64

65+

you describe your financial 20 Would you How describe your financial situation dayssituation as excellent,today? good, not so good, or poor? 18 these 19 15 15

13 9

57

64

15

15 12

61

67

65 66

61

15 17

65 66

61 57

61 57

57

35-49

67

57

55

55

50

15

10 13 14 64

13

50

62

13

15 17

15 12

10 13 14

18 19

16

16

14

20 14

14 62 62 64 63 62 63

62 62 64 63 62 63

14

50-64

62 1262 59

62 62 59

12

64 58

64

64 58

56

60

65+ 14

14 23 20 14 16

15 18

17 14

23 20 14 16

15 18

17 14

14 64

56

64 14

60

58

56 63 55 61

64 56 55

58

56

15 63 13 61

63 61 61

15 56

15

13

15

16

20 18 15

20 18 6315 16 61 61 16

59 60 57 58 62

59 60 57 58

40

20 20

0

Good Good

Not so good

Not so good

Poor

Poor

Indicate highpoints

Indicate highpoints

Although many Americans feel that they are financially stable, most believe that the economic system unfairly favors powerful interests.

Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.

14 13 6 7

2/7/2018

3/7/2018

Financial Financialstatus status Excellent Excellent

12/19/2017

5

4/11/2018

7

7

7

76

11/22/2017

6

6 76

2/7/2018 11/15/2017

7

8

16

1/10/2018

17

14 13 20 16 18 15 20

1/10/2018 10/11/2017

4/20/2017 10/11/2017

14

12/19/2017 8/17/2017

6 6

7

4/11/2018 8/17/2017

3/7/2018

19

17

8

6/28/2017

2/7/2018

6 6

5/10/2017

4/11/2018

3/7/2018 12/19/2017

2/7/2018 11/22/2017

10/11/2017 12/19/2017

1/10/2018

10

10

11

14

9 7 7

9 7 7

4/20/2017

11

19

15

6/28/2017 11/22/2017

15 16

5/10/2017 11/15/2017

13

8

1/10/2018 11/15/2017

7

7 8 7

8/17/2017 11/22/2017

9

13 14

17

20 13 21 14 20 13 1615 15 20 20 7 9 4

6/28/2017 11/15/2017

4/20/2017

3/7/2018 1/10/2018

4/11/2018 2/7/2018

2/7/2018 12/19/2017

11/22/2017 1/10/2018

11/15/2017 12/19/2017

8/17/2017

10/11/2017 11/22/2017

11/15/2017

6/28/2017

10/11/2017

5/10/2017

8/17/2017

6/28/2017

4/20/2017

6

12

21 8 9 4 9

5/10/2017

8

17

17

5

4 5

15

10/11/2017

9

8

15 4 17

8

12

4/20/2017

4 9

11

8/17/2017

4 7

7 4 7

4

15

15

11

6/28/2017

13 9 6

14 15 14

9

3/7/2018

9 5 67

12 14 159 14

4/11/2018

22

13 96

16 17 12

5/10/2017

15 12 22 16 2115 517

5/10/2017

12/19/2017 1/10/2018

13

139

21

12

4/20/2017 4/11/2018

12 10

11/22/2017

8

13

12/19/2017

8

8/17/2017

8/17/2017

6/28/2017 6/28/2017

5/10/2017 5/10/2017

40

4/20/2017 4/20/2017

40

13 12 10

11/15/2017

8

7

8

23

11/22/2017

7 8

4

23

24

8

11/15/2017

22

4

14

19 2421

3/7/2018 2/7/2018

16

22

14

21 14

10/11/2017

20

19

10/11/2017

20

14

1/10/2018 2/7/2018

16

4/11/2018 3/7/2018

0

18

5


33

Is the economic system in system this country generally fair generally to most Americans? Does the economic in this country fair to most Does the economic system in this country generally fair to most Americans or unfairly favors powerful interests? Americans or unfairly favors powerful interests?

50

Generally fair to most Americans Generally fair to most Americans

50

Unfairly favors powerful interests Unfairly favors powerful interests

40

40

30

30

45

20 30

20

10

Responses (%)

10 0

Responses (%)

30

45

35

31

0 10 20 30

20

40

31

50

10

30

35

66

60

65

40

50

50

66

60

65

60

70 Millennial (22-37)

50

Gen X (38-53)

Baby Boomer (54-72)

Silent (73-90)

60 70 Millennial (22-37)

Gen X (38-53)

Baby Boomer (54-72)

Source: Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted June 8-18 and June 27-July 9, 2017.

Silent (73-90)


34

Citizen.org. (2018). Trans-Pacific Partnership | Public Citizen. [online] Available at: https://www.citizen.org/our-work/globalization-and-trade/nafta-wto-other-trade-pacts/trans-pacific-partnership [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Council on Foreign Relations. (2018). Trump’s Foreign Policy Moments. [online] Available at: https://www.cfr.org/timeline/trumps-foreign-policy-moments [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Ustr.gov. (2018). North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) | United States Trade Representative. [online] Available at: https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/north-american-freetrade-agreement-nafta [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018].


35

Foreign policy key terms

Trans-Pacific Partnership: a 12-country, trade agreement aimed to lower both non-tariff and tariff barriers to trade and establish a mechanism to sue countries for discriminatory practices. Sanctuary city: a city that limits cooperation with federal immigration enforcement agents in order to protect low-priority immigrants from deportation, while still turning over those who have committed serious crimes. North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA): the world’s largest free trade treaty between Mexico, Canada and the US, that sees the three countries as equals in trade, by eliminating most tariffs between the countries to increase investment opportunities.

key issues

Stances on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) •

Largely seen to potentially lead to positive economic outcomes for all countries, though an unorthodox model by two Tufts University economists disagreed with this analysis.

Supporters of the TPP have argued that the deal would serve for geopolitical gains, reducing dependence on Chinese trade, and bringing countries closer with the US.

President Trump believed that the agreement would undermine the US economy and its independence.

Stances on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) •

Those against NAFTA argue that too many U.S. manufacturing jobs are sent to lower-cost Mexico, and that workers who kept jobs in those industries had to accept lower wages.

Those in favor of NAFTA point to the advantages of lower grocery prices and lower gas prices since the US receives numerous goods from Canada and Mexico.


36

Percentage who say good diplomacy, rather than military strength, the say bestgood way to ensure peace. Thoseiswho diplomacy, rather than

military strength, is the best way to ensure peace Millennial (22-37) 80

Gen X (38-53)

Baby Boomer (54-72)

Silent (73-90)

77

Year 1994/2004 2017

71

70 64

59

60

59 52

Responses (%)

50

46 43

40

30

20

10

0 2004 2017 1994 2017 1994 2017 1994 2017

Source: Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted June 8-18, 2017.

Timeline on Select Foreign Policy – 1.27.17 through 8.1.18 1.27.17 6.1.17

Pres. Trump signs executive order banning nationals of six Muslim-majority from traveling to the US for 90 days. The same week, two additional executive orders are used to 1) direct funds to the construction of a wall on the Mexican border, and 2) cut off sanctuary cities from receiving federal grants.

Pres. Trump announces the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord (aka the Paris Agreement).

5.18.17 The White House announces its intent to revisit the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).


37

Should the U.S. follow own national interests or take into account the interest of allies?

Should the U.S. follow own national interests even when allies strongly disagree OR take into account interests of allies even if it means making compromises with them? Opinion Follow own national interests even when allies strongly disagree

60

Take into account interests of allies even if it means making compromises with them

40

Responses (%)

66

60

53

48

20

0

29

36

20

42

43

Baby Boomer (54-72)

Silent (73-90)

40 Millennial (22-37)

Gen X (38-53)

Source: Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted June 8-18 and June 27-July 9, 2017. NOTE: “Don’t know” responses not shown.

Source: Council on Foreign Relations

6.16.17

8.8.17

9.5.17

Pres. Trump announces that it will reinstate restrictions on travel and trade with Cuba and reduce the U.S. embassy staff in Havana by half.

A war of words begins between Pres. Trump and North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un after a series of missile tests and threats.

Pres. Trump announces the DACA program will be ending, leaving around 800,000 people in danger of deportation.

7.5.17

8.21.17

Pres. Trump meets with Russian President, Vladimir Putin amid ongoing interference in the 2016 US elections.

Pres. Trump announces that he will deploy more U.S. troops to Afghanistan for counter-terrorism efforts.


38

Statementthat thatbest bestdescribes describes the the opinion opinion of of the the U.S. U.S. Statement Opinion

100 11 90

7

9

There are other countries that are better than U.S. U.S. one of greatest countries, along with others U.S. stands above all other countries in the world

22

80

Responses (%)

70

46

60

50

58

56

59

40

30 46

20 30 10

34

18

0 Millennial (22-37)

Gen X (38-53)

Baby Boomer (54-72)

Silent (73-90)

Source: Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted June 8-18, 2017. NOTE: “Don’t know” responses not shown.

Source: Council on Foreign Relations

Timeline on Select Foreign Policy – 1.23.18 through 8.1.18 3.18.18

5.8.18

Pres. Trump accepts an invitation to meet with Kim Jong-un of North Korea. A meeting seen as an opportunity to denuclearize North Korea.

The U.S. announces that it will withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Agreement, potentially jeopardizing the arms control agreement under which Iran dismantled much of its nuclear program.

12.6.17

4.13.18

Pres. Trump breaks with decades of US policy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, potentially setting back the peace process.

The U.S. strikes three facilities in Syria linked to the Assad regime’s chemical weapons program, in response to the Syrian government’s use of chemical weapons on civilians.


39

A (very) brief summary of Russian election meddling Russia has been a complicated issue of national security, foreign policy, and a likely attack on democracy. There are many people, events, and documents involved in the investigation that are unknown to the public at this time. This summary focuses on what we do know.

FBI and the Special Counsel The FBI’s original Trump-Russia investigation started in the summer before the 2016 campaign, though the public wasn’t really aware of it then. •

In March 2017, then-FBI Director James Comey publicly confirmed the investigation of connections between Trump associates and the Russian government.

In May 2017, Trump fired Comey, and said a day later that Russia was on his mind when he made the decision. At the time, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein was overseeing the Russia investigation after Attorney General Jeff Sessions recused himself.

After Comey’s firing, Rosenstein (a Republican) named Robert Mueller (another Republican) as special counsel, tasked with investigating “any links and/or coordination between the Russian government and individuals associated with the campaign of President Donald Trump,” as well as “any matters that arose or may arise directly from the investigation.” Mueller is a highly-regarded and well-respected figure in Washington.

Indictments for election interference and hacking the DNC •

Mueller’s team has been involved in indicting 32 people and three Russian companies, including four Trump campaign officials: Paul Manafort, Richard Gates, George Papadopoulos and Michael Flynn.

In February 2018, a federal grand jury indicted 13 Russians charged in a conspiracy to influence the 2016 election through their use of social media., which was a multimillion-dollar operation aimed at conducting “information warfare against the United States of America.”

A federal grand jury also indicted 12 Russian military intelligence officers for hacking the Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee during the 2016 election. The indictment cited “large-scale cyber operations to interfere with the 2016 U.S. presidential election.” It also said that on the same day that Trump called on Russia to “find” 30,000 |Clinton emails, Russians worked “after hours” to try to hack email accounts used by Clinton’s personal office.

Now what? The importance of voting in midterm elections. •

It is unknown what Trump knew about Russian efforts to undermine the 2016 election. Trump has long insisted there was “no collusion” while also routinely rejecting or undercutting the intelligence community and any report that Russia was involved ini election interference.

Mueller’s team has been focused on the question of obstruction for the past several months. The obstruction case focuses on Trump’s attempt to intervene in the Flynn case, firing Comey, and his attempts to get Sessions to reverse his recusal.

Mueller’s team will eventually probably send a report about the president’s conduct to Congress to potentially be used in impeachment proceedings.

Congress is not likely to impeach under Republican control.

The makeup of Congress after the midterm election is critical to what happens next when and if Mueller submits a report. HuffPost UK. (2018). The Mueller Investigation, Explained. Here’s Your Guide To The Trump-Russia Probe.. [online] Available at: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/mueller-investigation-trump-russia-probe_us_5b4cdda5e4b0e7c958fe3141 [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018].


40

Immigration.procon.org. (2018). What Is Illegal Immigration? - Illegal Immigration - ProCon.org. [online] Available at: https://immigration.procon.org/view.answers.php?questionID=000756 [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Vox. (2018). The Trump administration’s separation of families at the border, explained. [online] Available at: https://www.vox.com/2018/6/11/17443198/children-immigrant-families-separated-parents [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Walters, J. (2018). What is Daca and who are the Dreamers?. [online] the Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/04/donald-trump-what-is-daca-dreamers [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018].


41

Immigration key terms

Legal immigration: Immigrants that have the proper, legal documentation to live and work in the country, and have applied for the appropriate visa. Immigrants arrive legally because they are family of citizens (spouse, minor children), employed, a refugee, or via visa lottery. Illegal immigration: A foreign-born non-citizens who either entered the United States without inspection or were admitted temporarily and stayed past the date they were required to leave. The most common way that immigrants violate the terms of their visa (and thus become ‘illegal’ is by accepting employment. Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA): A federal government program created in 2012 under Barack Obama to allow people brought to the US illegally as children the temporary right to live, study and work in America. It is NOT a pathway to citizenship. •

Those applying are vetted for any criminal history or threat to national security

If they pass vetting, action to deport them is deferred for two years, with a chance to renew, and they become eligible for basics like a driving license, college enrollment or a work permit.

Dreamers: A term for the approximately 800,000 people protected under DACA, all aged 15-36 years old. •

To apply, they must have been younger than 31 on 15 June 2012, when the program began, and “undocumented”, lacking legal immigration status. They must have arrived in the US before turning 16 and lived there continuously since June 2007.

key issues

child separations •

Between October 1, 2017 and May 31, 2018, at least 2,700 children were split from their parents, before Pres. Trump was forced to respond publicly after increasing public outrage.

By July 26, the Trump administration said that 1,442 children had been reunited with their parents while 711 remained in government shelters.


42

Overall, do you believe that legal immigration is good for the country?is good for the Overall, do you believe that legal immigration country or bad for the country? 18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Answer choices Good

100

Bad

90 80 70

Responses (%)

60 50 87

88

93

94

89

91

87

84

40 30 20 10 0 10

13

9/16/2016

6

7

5

1/18/2018

9/16/2016

1/18/2018

9

9/16/2016

5

1/18/2018

9

10

9/16/2016

1/18/2018

Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.

Timeline on Select Immigration Issues – 2016 through 8.1.18 2016

9.24.17

Then presidential nominee Donald Trump expresses he would like to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, and make Mexico pay for it.

Trump issued restrictions on travel from Chad, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Somalia, Syria, Venezuela, and Yeman.

1.27.17

10.17.17

An executive order is signed halting all refugees and temporarily barring people from seven Muslimmajority countries, saying that it would allow time to develop a stricter vetting system.

Federal courts stopped parts of the travel bans, citing that banning predominantly-Muslim countries was unconstitutional.


43

If America is from too open to people from around world, Does openness to people around the world causethe America doits weidentity risk losing as a to nationor is America's openness to risk losing or our is itidentity essential who we are as a nation?

to people from all over the world is essential to who we are as a nation? Answer choice

80

America's openness to people from all over the world is essential to who we are as a nation America is too open to people from around the world, we risk losing our identity as a nation

60

40

80

Responses (%)

68

61

54

20

0 18 30

34

20

39

40 Millennial (22-37)

Gen X (38-53)

Baby Boomer (54-72)

Silent (73-90)

Source: Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted June 27-July 9, 2017. NOTE: “Don’t know” responses not shown.

4.18

6.20.18

A “zero tolerance” policy is put into place at the southwest border of the U.S., causing separation of families in detention centers, and sparking national outrage.

Pres. Trump signs an executive order to keep migrant families together at the U.S.-Mexico border following a national outcry.

5.5.18 – 6.6.18 alone

7.26.18

2,342 children are separated from their parents at the border.

The court ordered deadline to reunite families, although a reported 900+ families were not reunited by the deadline.


44

Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are currently in theillegal United States? who are currently Which comes closest to your living view about immigrants living in the United States?

18-34

35-49

58

59

59

23

26

28

28

3/8/2017

57

60

25

24

26

11

11

14

11

9

13

13

9

25

61

66

59

56

59

58

21

23

26

23

23

21

20

9/28/2017

22

64

8/16/2017

60

3/8/2017

62

1/12/2017

61

11/23/2016

69

9/16/2016

69

9/28/2017

63

8/16/2017

68

60

11

3/8/2017

62

11

78

77

73

15

1/12/2017

7

1/12/2017

Responses (%)

40

11

11/23/2016

11

60

8

11

11/23/2016

9

9

9/16/2016

10

8

9

9/16/2016

7

65+

7

8

80

50-64

20

14 6

21

13

18

19

9/28/2017

26

18

8/16/2017

0

9/28/2017

8/16/2017

3/8/2017

1/12/2017

11/23/2016

9/16/2016

20

Answer choices They should be allowed to remain in the United States, but not be allowed to apply for U.S. citizenship They should be allowed to stay in the United States and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship They should be required to leave the U.S

Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.


45

Which comes closest to your view about undocumented immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as children? Which comes closest to your view about undocumented immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as children?

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

100 6

4

80

7 7

8

8

7

9

7

79

78

79

11

9

10

1/11/2018

4

12/13/2017

3

9/28/2017

90

9 70

Responses (%)

60 50

92 83

40

84

82

78

82

79

76

71

30 20

13

11

8

11

14

15

1/11/2018

9

12/13/2017

12

9/28/2017

4

12/13/2017

0

9/28/2017

10

10

1/11/2018

1/11/2018

12/13/2017

9/28/2017

20

Answer choices They should be allowed to remain in the United States, but not be allowed to apply for U.S. citizenship They should be allowed to stay in the United States and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship They should be required to leave the U.S.

The vast majority of Americans believe that immigrants should be allowed to stay here.

Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.


46

Black Lives Matter. (2018). [online] Available at: https://blacklivesmatter.com/ [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. DIAMOND, D., LEVINE, M., NUSSBAUM, M., Shafer, J. and Haberkorn, J. (2018). Trump administration dismantles LGBT-friendly policies. [online] POLITICO. Available at: https://www.politico. com/story/2018/02/19/trump-lgbt-rights-discrimination-353774 [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. National Center for Transgender Equality. (2018). The Discrimination Administration. [online] Available at: https://transequality.org/the-discrimination-administration [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Pew Research Center’s Religion & Public Life Project. (2018). The Muslim American experience in the Trump era. [online] Available at: http://www.pewforum.org/2017/07/26/the-muslimamerican-experience-in-the-trump-era/ [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Washington Post. (2018). [online] Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/08/16/the-whole-point-of-confederate-monuments-is-to-celebrate-white-supremacy/?utm_term=.8118e4620ae1 [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018].


47

Treatment of minority groups key terms

Black Lives Matter: a movement that formed in 2013 in the wake of several publicly known cases of racial inequality and violence against African Americans, including in the form of police brutality.

key issues

Confederate monuments •

Protests and debates have been ongoing over the removal of confederate statues because they are seen as overt symbols of racism and white supremacy. Many say that it is time to see them go since they do not represent today’s values.

Others argue that the statues are an important part of history that must be preserved.

LGBT rights •

The Trump Administration has stopped and rolled back regulations meant to protect LGBT workers and patients and removed LGBT-friendly language from documents.

A new religious liberty division of the health department has been designed to defend health workers who have religious objections to treating LGBT patients.

Muslim discrimination •

In the wake of Pres. Trump’s travel ban, American Muslims have expressed issues of discrimination and misconception of Islam.


48

How serious a problem do you think that prejudice against minority groups is in the United States today? How serious a problem do you think that prejudice against minority groups is in the United States today? 18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

80

48

68 52 47 57

45

60 45 43 52 40

35 50

52

45 33 42 41 41 43 48 41

43 36

40

41

40

40

6

9

6

7

4 10

12 16

12 10 19 18 17 20 17 17 14

8

7

6

7

16 12 18 17

1/24/2018

5

8/23/2017

5

38 32 35

3/9/2017

1/13/2017

11/23/2016

6/29/2016

1/24/2018

8/23/2017

6

36

2/8/2017

4

40

1/13/2017

15

5

16

3/9/2017

2/8/2017

1/13/2017

11/23/2016

7

35

11/23/2016

19 12

20

6/29/2016

11

42

6/29/2016

8

1/24/2018

14

5

8/23/2017

17

4

3/9/2017

7

7

2/8/2017

7

4

27

25

34 36 35 33 32 36

1/13/2017

12

13

5

41

37

6/29/2016

8

6

9

27

33

11/23/2016

8

21

29

31

1/24/2018

5

26 29 25

36

3/9/2017

0

32 32

8/23/2017

20

2/8/2017

Responses (%)

60 53

Answer choices Very serious Somewhat serious Not so serious Not at all Indicate highpoints

Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.


49

Percentage who say our country needs to continue making changes to give blacks equal rights with whites. PercentPercent who say our country needs to continue making changes who say our country needs to continue making changesto togive give blacks equalequal rights withwith whites blacks rights whites Millennial (22-37) Millennial (22-37) 70

70

60

60

68

61

Gen X (38-53) Gen X (38-53)

Baby Boomer (54-72) Baby Boomer (54-72)

Silent (73-90) Silent (73-90)

Year Year

2009 2009 2015

68

2015

2017

61

59

59

62

2017

62

60

60

57

57

57

57

54

54 50

48

46

50

48

40

Responses (%)

Responses (%)

46

41 40

41

41

41

30

30 20

20 10

10

0 2009

2015

2017

2009

2015

2017

2009

2015

2017

2009

2015

2017

0 2009

2015

2017

2009

2015

2017

2009

2015

2017

2009

2015

2017

Americans agree that prejudices and racism exist and are a serious problem in today’s society.

Source: Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted June 8-18 and June 27-July 9, 2017.


50

Percentage who say racial discrimination is the main reason Those who racial discrimination the mainthese reason why why say many black people can’t is get ahead days. many black people can’t get ahead these days Millennial (22-37)

Gen X (38-53)

Baby Boomer (54-72)

Silent (73-90)

55

Year 2000/2005 2017

52 50 45 40

39

40

Responses (%)

36

35

35

30

30

30 28

25 20 15 10 5 0 2005

2017

2000

2017

2000

2017

2000

2017

Source: Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted June 8-18 and June 27-July 9, 2017.

Timeline on Select Treatment of Minority Groups – 1.27.17 through 8.1.18 2.22.17

8.12.17

Landmark 2016 guidance explaining how schools must protect transgender students under the federal Title IX law is withdrawn.

After a white nationalist attending a rally drove a car into a crowd of protestors, Trump condemns “this egregious display of hatred, bigotry and violence, on many sides.”

5.2.17

9.22.17

A plan to roll back regulations interpreting the Affordable Care Act’s nondiscrimination provisions to protect transgender people is announced.

Pres. Trump said NFL owners should fire “son of a bitch” players who kneel during the National Anthem to protest police brutality against people of color.


51

Percentage who favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally. Percent who favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally 100% 100%

73% 65% 56%

53% 42% 34%

41% 24%

2007

2017

Generation (2018 age) Millennial (22-37) Gen X (38-53) Baby Boomer (54-72) Silent (73-90) Total

Source: Pew Research Center survey conducted June 8-18, 2017. NOTE: Data based on yearly averages.

Source: National Center for Transgender Equality

9.30.17

1.11.18

In the aftermath of two hurricanes, Pres. Trump characterizes Puerto Ricans as “wanting everything done for them,” adding that their leaders are “not able to get their workers to help.”

Pres. Trump reportedly wonders why the US was admitting people from Haiti and Africa, referring to “shithole countries” and suggesting more immigration from places like Norway.

10.6.17

3.23.18

The Justice Department released a sweeping “license to discriminate”, as long as they can cite religious reasons for doing so.

The Trump Administration announced an implementation plan for its discriminatory ban on transgender military service members.


52

Do you think more acceptance of transgender people would be a good thing for the country?

Do you think more acceptance of transgender people would be a good thing for the country, a bad thing for thecountry, or do you think that it would not make much difference either way? 18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

80

60

50

54

48

47

39

48

41

29

37

37

44

39

6

16

15

14

Responses (%)

40

28

35

20

0

20

15

49

47

12 18

14

40 3/8/2017

8/3/2017

3/8/2017

8/3/2017

3/8/2017

8/3/2017

3/8/2017

8/3/2017

Answer choices Good thing Bad thing No difference

Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.


53

How acceptingHow do you think thedo U.S. is think of transgender today? accepting you the U.S. ispeople of

transgender people today?

18-34

50-64 How accepting35-49 do you think the U.S. is of transgender people today?

70

18-34

60 70 60

6

11

11

8

10

8

11

30 40

Responses (%) Responses (%)

10

11

14

8

65+

6

11

50

30 20

50-64

11

50 40

35-49 14

8

65+

48 48

54

53 44

54

53

54

50

44

20

54

50

53

52 53

52

10

10

0 0

10 10

20

27 27

22 22

24 24

30

35

27

28 28

21

22 21

22

35

20

30

27

12 11

12

8

7 7

7

11

40

8

40

7 9

9

8

11 11

8

3/8/2017 8/3/2017 8/3/20173/8/2017 3/8/2017 8/3/2017 3/8/2017 8/3/2017 3/8/2017 3/8/2017 8/3/2017 3/8/2017 8/3/2017 3/8/2017 8/3/20178/3/2017 Acceptancelevel level Acceptance Very Veryaccepting accepting Somewhat Somewhataccepting accepting Not Notso soaccepting accepting Not accepting at all

Not accepting at all

Answer choices Answer choices VeryVery serious serious Somewhat serious Somewhat serious Not so serious

Not so serious

Not at all

Not at all

Americans are generally accepting of the transgender community.

Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.


54

Atf.gov. (2018). ATF Home Page | Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. [online] Available at: https://www.atf.gov/ [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. BBC News. (2018). Why is US gun lobby NRA so controversial?. [online] Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-35261394 [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Vox. (2018). America’s unique gun violence problem, explained in 17 maps and charts. [online] Available at: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/2/16399418/us-gun-violence-statistics-maps-charts [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018].


55

Gun policy key terms

National Rifle Association (NRA): An American nonprofit organization that advocates for gun rights, founded in 1871 as a recreational group designed to “promote and encourage rifle shooting on a scientific basis”. •

Now among the most powerful special interest lobby groups in the US, with a substantial budget to influence members of Congress on gun policy.

The NRA spends about $250 million per year, far more than all the country’s gun control advocacy groups put together.

Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF): A law enforcement agency in the United States’ Department of Justice that protects our communities from violent criminals, criminal organizations, the illegal use and trafficking of firearms, the illegal use and storage of explosives, acts of arson and bombings, acts of terrorism, and the illegal diversion of alcohol and tobacco products. key issues

Mass shootings •

A dangerous increase in mass shootings in the United States in the 2010s, including several school schools, has prompted discussion on reforming gun control laws and other initiatives to prevent gun-related deaths.

Since 2011, there has been a mass shooting on average every 64 days in the United States.

Gun control vs. The Second Amendment •

Gun control initiatives up for debate include background checks, a waiting period after gun purchase, a ban on assault rifles, tighter security in schools, and repealing the Second Amendment.

The United States is one of the few countries with the right to bear arms as a constitutional right.


56

18-34

35-49

50-64

Safety level Safer

65+

Less safe Indicate highpoints

40

20

38

35 32

44 41

39 35 38 33

28

34 32

29

0

59

64 61

6/28/2017

20

6/30/2016

Responses (%)

24

30

39 38 41 38 36

54

60

55 55

50

46 57 55

51

58

54

50 59

61

57

61 63

40

2/20/2018

11/15/2017

10/12/2017

6/28/2017

6/30/2016

2/20/2018

11/15/2017

10/12/2017

6/28/2017

6/30/2016

2/20/2018

11/15/2017

10/12/2017

6/28/2017

6/30/2016

2/20/2018

11/15/2017

10/12/2017

60

Safety level Safer

Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. Less safe NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.

Indicate highpoints

Timeline of Select Gun Policy and Events – 1.27.17 through 8.1.18 2.17

3.2.17

Pres. Trump overturned Obama-era rule that added people with mental illnesses and unable to handle their own finances to the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS).

A ban on using lead ammunition on wildlife refuges was revoked, a ban that prevents plants and animals from being poisoned by lead left on the ground or in their water.

2.17 Pres. Trump’s Justice Department sided with the ATF and removed about 500,000 people previously labeled “fugitives” from the background-check system.

11/15/2017

10/12/2017

If more people carried guns, do you think the United States would be more safe? If more people carried guns, do you think the United States would be safer or less safe?

6/28/2017

6/30/2016

2/20/2018

11/15/2017

10/12/2017

6/28/2017

6/30/2016

60


9

20

4

5

4

5

5

5

57

18-34

35-49

50-64

Difficulty level Too easy

65+

Too difficult

80

About right Indicate highpoints

60

40

58

63 57 70 56 55 53 59 65 52 55 61 59 66 54 64 62 65 70

20

29 29 30 33 24 36 35 38 32 25 40 36 33 33 29 37 26 31 30 23

9

20

4

5

4

5

5

5

3

7 4

5

6/28/2017

0

6/30/2016

Responses (%)

67

4

7 2/20/2018

11/15/2017

10/12/2017

6/28/2017

6/30/2016

2/20/2018

11/15/2017

10/12/2017

2/20/2018

11/15/2017

10/12/2017

6/28/2017

6/30/2016

2/20/2018

11/15/2017

10/12/2017

6/28/2017

6/30/2016

-9

Difficulty level Too easy Too difficult Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is About right interviewed over five or six days.

Indicate highpoints NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.

11.5.17

2.12.18

A Texas church shooting results in 26 deaths.

Pres. Trump’s fiscal year 2019 budget calls for reducing funding to improve reporting to the national background-check database.

10.1.17

11.17.17

A Las Vegas shooting on a crowd of concertgoers kills 59 people. The gun used functioned like an illegal automatic weapon thanks to the use of a “bump stock.”

The Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act was passed, allowing people granted a concealed-carry license in their state to conceal a weapon anywhere in the country, overruling other states’ gun laws.

11/15/2017

10/12/2017

6/28/2017

6/30/2016

2/20/2018

11/15/2017

Doyou youthink thinkititisistoo tooeasy easy to to buy buy aa gun gun in in the the U.S. Do U.S. today? today, too difficult, or about right?

10/12/2017

6/28/2017

6/30/2016

-9

7 7


58

Is being the victim of a mass shooting something you personally about? Is being the victim of a massworry shooting something you personally worry about? 18-34

35-49 53

44

50-64

65+

Answer choices Yes

53

No

47 40

40

42 37

39

40

60

60

33

31

37

Responses (%)

20

0

20

40

66

68

63 2/20/2018

11/15/2017

2/20/2018

12/20/2017

11/15/2017

2/20/2018

12/20/2017

11/15/2017

63

12/20/2017

58

11/15/2017

59

2/20/2018

55

46

47

12/20/2017

60

52

Millennials and Gen Xers are more likely to fear being a victim of a mass shooting, rising from November 2017 to February 2018. Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.

Timeline of Select Gun Policy and Events – 1.27.17 through 8.1.18 2.22.18

2.22.18

Trump suggests arming up to 20% of teachers to stop “maniacs” from attacking students.

Defense Distributed makes complete plans to print guns at home with a 3D printer available raising new challenges for US officials and lawmakers.

2.14.18

5.18.18

17 people killed at Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida.

10 people killed at Santa Fe High School in Santa Fe, Texas.


Homicides by ďŹ rearm per 1 million people Global Context: Homicides by Firearms per 1 million People in 2012

Switzerland 7.7%

Sweden 4.1% New Zealand 1.6% Netherlands 3.3%

Denmark 2.7%

Canada 5.1%

United States 29.7%

Finland 4.5% Germany 1.9%

Australia 1.4%

Austria 2.2% Ireland 4.8%

Belgium 6.8%

Luxembourg 6.2%

1%

Source: UNODC, Small Arms Survey, via The Guardian.

30%

59


60

Global Context: Population vs. Civilian Gun Ownership Population Population of of the the world world

Civilian-owned Civilian-owned in in the the world world

7.13 7.13 billion billion

644 644 million million Guns Guns owned owned in in the the U.S. U.S.

42% 42%

Population Population of of U.S. U.S.

4.43% 4.43%

American citizens have an astonishing number of guns in comparison to the rest of the world.

Source: UNODC, Small Arms Survey, via The Guardian.


61

Support or opposition for requiring background checks for all gun buyers, stricter gun laws in the United States and nationwide ban on the sale of assault weapons? 18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

100

80

60

Responses (%)

95.2

95.3

95.2

94.3

40 61.0

58.0

54.4

57.8

56.4

74.4

66.8

62.1

20

0

4.5

34.9

20

3.7

5.2

40.4

38.3

40.4

Stricter gun laws

Ban on assault weapon sales

3.5

39.3

23.2

30.0

33.4

40 Background checks

Stricter gun laws

Ban on assault weapon sales

Background checks

Background checks

Stricter gun laws

Ban on assault weapon sales

Background checks

Stricter gun laws

Ban on assault weapon sales

Stance, type Support, Background checks Support, Stricter gun laws Support, Ban on assault weapon sales Oppose, Background checks Oppose, Stricter gun laws Oppose, Ban on assault weapon sales

Of all gun issues, better background checks is supported by almost all Americans. The majority would also like to see stricter gun laws in general.

Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. The data portrayed in this visualization was averaged from polls taken in 2016-2018. NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.


62

HealthCare.gov. (2018). Affordable Care Act (ACA) - HealthCare.gov Glossary. [online] Available at: https://www.healthcare.gov/glossary/affordable-care-act/ [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Health Reform Tracker. (2018). ACA Repeal and Replace Efforts Timeline 2017. [online] Available at: http://www.healthreformtracker.org/ahca-timeline/ [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Hhs.gov. (2018). [online] Available at: https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/AmericanPatientsFirst.pdf [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Npr.org. (2018). NPR Choice page. [online] Available at: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2018/08/01/634539877/under-new-rules-cheaper-short-term-health-care-plans-now-last-up-to-threeyears [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. The Balance. (2018). 10 Pros and Cons of Obamacare. [online] Available at: https://www.thebalance.com/obamacare-pros-and-cons-3306059 [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. The Balance. (2018). How Trump’s Health Care Policies Will Raise Premium Prices for You. [online] Available at: https://www.thebalance.com/how-could-trump-change-health-care-in-america-4111422 [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018].


63

Healthcare key terms

Affordable Care Act (also known as “Obamacare”): The comprehensive health care reform law enacted in March 2010 under Barack Obama. Most notably, it: •

Slows the rise of healthcare cost by providing insurance for million and making preventative care free (people receive treatment before expensive emergency room services)

Requires all insurance plans to cover 10 essential health benefits including mental health, addiction, and chronic diseases to reduce the need for emergency services

Does not allow insurance companies to deny coverage for pre-existing conditions

Allows children to stay on parents’ health insurance until the age of 26.

Grants a tax credit to the middle class on their premiums

Requires businesses with more than 50 employees to offer health insurance, and grants those businesses tax credit to help with the costs.

key issues

Although President Trump has not been able to successfully repeal and replace the American Care Act (Obamacare), he has been able to weaken it considerably in the following ways: •

If you’re healthy, his actions could lower your costs by not having to pay a penalty for being uninsured, or by purchasing a short-term plan that does not offer all benefits

If you BECOME sick, you risk exceeding your cheaper plan’s annual or lifetime limit, causing you to pay much more to buy into Obamacare

If you have chronic illness, your costs rise because as healthy people leave ACA plans, companies will raise prices (often over 30%) on the remaining plans to stay profitable.

National healthcare costs will rise faster, and contribute to national debt. As insurance rates climb, so do subsidies that increase the deficit.


20

8 0

3

14 2

12 4

18-34

35-49

50-64

4/20/2017

How important is it to you that health insurance be affordable for all Americans?

3/23/2017

3/8/2017

2 How important is it to you that health insurance be affordable for all 10 Americans?

Importance level Very important

65+

100

Somewhat important Not so important

90

Not important at all

80 70

80

82

83

15

14

13

82

88

81

82

83

82

83

15

13

13

14

13

1

3 1

1

1

1

1

5/11/2017

10

84

4/20/2017

12

82

3/23/2017

88

85

3/8/2017

50

82

5/11/2017

84

4/20/2017

Responses (%)

60

40 30 20

2

3

1

10 1

3/23/2017

3/23/2017

3/8/2017

10

2

3/8/2017

2

2

5/11/2017

4

15

4/20/2017

2

14

3/23/2017

3

4/20/2017

0

14

3/8/2017

8

5/11/2017

10

17

Importance level Very important Somewhat important

Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is so important interviewed over five or Not six days.

important at allnot shown. NOTE: “Don’t know/not Not assessed” responses

Timeline of Select Healthcare Policy – 1.20.17 through 8.1.18 1.20.17

6.22.17

Pres. Trump issues an executive order to “minimize the unwarranted economic and regulatory burdens” of the Affordable Care Act.

Senate leaders release their version of an ACA overhaul, the Better Care Reconciliation Act (BCRA).

3.7.17

7.28.17

House Republicans introduce a repeal-and-replace bill: the American Health Care Act.

After months of drafts and failed votes, a “skinny repeal” bill is the last option. Like the versions before it, it is also voted down.

10

14

2

2 3/8/2017

10

5/11/2017

64


65

Percentage who say it is the federal government’s responsibility Percentage who say it is the federal government’s to make sure all Americans to have health coverage. responsibility make surecare all Americans have health care coverage

100 90

80

70

67 58

Responses (%)

60

57 52

50

40

30

20

10 0 Millennial (22-37)

Gen X (38-53)

Baby Boomer (54-72)

Silent (73-90)

Source: Pew Research Center surveys of U.S. adults conducted June 8-18, 2017 and Nov. 29-Dec. 4, 2017.

Source: Health Reform Tracker

10.12.17

5.11.18

An executive order is signed pushing officials to ease the purchase insurance that does not meet the regulatory standards of the ACA.

Pres. Trump reveals the “American Patients First” Plan to lower drug costs.

12.22.17

8.1.18

Pres. Trump signs the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, repealing the Obamacare tax on those who don’t get health insurance.

It is announced that people who don’t get insurance through their jobs can buy short-term policies that are cheaper than ACA coverage. The plans do not have to meet any of the ACA coverage requirements.


66

a

Global Context: World Healthcare Costs

United States

81.23 Life expectancy

$3,895 Cost per Capita

United States United Kingdom Spain Canada

78.11 Life expectancy

23

895

any

26

tancy

588

81.23

$7,290 79.01

tancy

apita

Canada

Life expectancy

$3,895 80.05

Cost per Capita

Cost per Capita Life expectancy

Life expectancy

$2,992 78.11 Norway

Germany $2,671

Cost per Capita

Cost per Capita

Life expectancy

Japan

Poland

$7,290

79.26

Life expectancy 75.63

Cost per Capita

Norway

82.12

$2,581 79.95

apita

alia

Life expectancy

$3,588 $1,035 Cost per Capita

Life expectancy

Cost per Capita

Life expectancy

Cost per Capita

79.95 Republic of Korea

63

$4,763 $4,763 Life expectancy

ctancy

137

Cost per78.72 Capita Cost per Capita

Capita

Life expectancy

Life Expectancy (years)

Mexico Australia 76.06 Life expectancy

81.63

$823 Cost per Capita

Life expectancy

Turkey

$1,688 71.96$3,137 $618 Cost per Capita

Cost per Capita

Life expectancy

Cost per Capita

Box size proportionate

Life Expectancy (years) to Cost per Capita ($) 71

83

United Kingdom Germany

79.26 79.01 Life expectancy Life expectancy

$2,992

$3,588 Japan Cost per Capita

Cost per Capita

Australia 82.12 Life expectancy

$2,581

81.63

Cost per Capita

Life expectancy Republic of Kore

$3,137 78.72 $1,68 Life expectancy Cost per Capita

Cost per Capit


67

United Kingdom Spain

79.01

80.05

$2,992

$2,671

Life expectancy

Cost per Capita

Cost per Capita

Poland

Japan

75.63 Life expectancy

82.12

$1,035

Life expectancy

Cost per Capita

$2,581

Mexico 76.06

Cost per Capita

Life expectancy

Republic of Korea

78.72 $1,688 Life expectancy

Cost per Capita

$823 Cost per Capita

Turkey 71.96 $618 Life expectancy

Cost per Capita

Box size proportionate to Cost per Capita ($)

Source: CIA World Factbook; Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development; U.N. Population Division; World Health Organization

Life expectancy


68

Abortion.procon.org. (2018). Background of the Issue - Abortion - ProCon.org. [online] Available at: https://abortion.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=006514 [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Medium. (2018). DeVos Decrypted: What Last Week’s Education Announcement Means for Trans Students. [online] Available at: https://medium.com/@TransEquality/devos-decrypted-what-last-weeks-education-announcement-means-for-trans-students-82f4133c3d31 [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Plannedparenthoodaction.org. (2018). Roe v. Wade: The Constitutional Right to Access Safe, Legal Abortion. [online] Available at: https://www.plannedparenthoodaction.org/issues/abortion/roe-v-wade [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018].


69

Abortion + women’s rights key terms

Planned Parenthood: a trusted health care provider, an informed educator, a passionate advocate, and a global partner helping similar organizations around the world. Planned Parenthood delivers vital reproductive health care, sex education, and information to millions of people worldwide. Roe v. Wade: A landmark decision by the U.S. Supreme Court on January 22,1973, that affirmed the constitutional right to access safe, legal abortion. •

Although around 72% of Americans do not want to see the decision overturned, it has been thrown in the spotlight because Pres. Trump’s next Supreme Court pick could swing the right to access abortion.

key issues

Pro-life vs. Pro-choice •

Pro-life advocates disagree with Planned Parenthood’s offering of abortion services.

Pro-choice advocates believe that each individual has the right to choose if they get an abortion for a range of reasons including: rape or incest, mother having health problems, possible fetal health problems, unready for responsibility, can’t afford raising a child, and avoiding single parenthood, among others.

Reproductive rights •

In April 2017, Pres. Trump and Congress overturned a regulation that protected Planned Parenthood and other family planning clinics from funding discrimination by states.

On October 6, 2017, the Department of Health and Human Services issued a regulation allowing employers and insurers to deny coverage for birth control, as long as they can cite religious reasons for doing so.


70

Do you think abortion should be legal or illegal?

Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases? 18-34

60 30

35

38

35-49

35

28 42

50-64

29

32

35

34

21

19

10

12

22

23

65+

29

26 23

20

21 25

22

16

17

33

36

38

39

25

22

25

28

8

12

10

18

Responses (%)

40

20

40

38

34

42 28

39

38

40

37

34

36

23

25

25

28

10

8

38

37

42

0 15

20

12

16

19

9

8

17

18

9

12

16 27

20

26

24

7 10

8 12

11

10

11

15

12/13/2017

2/8/2017

1/27/2017

1/12/2017

11/23/2016

12/13/2017

2/8/2017

1/27/2017

1/12/2017

11/23/2016

12/13/2017

2/8/2017

1/27/2017

1/12/2017

11/23/2016

12/13/2017

2/8/2017

1/27/2017

1/12/2017

11/23/2016

40

Answer choices Legal in all Legal in most Illegal in all Illegal in most Indicate highpoints

Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.


71

Do you support or oppose cutting off federal government funding to Planned Parenthood? If support cutting off support, if you knew that federal government funding was being used only for non-abortion health issues such as breast cancer screening, would you still favor cutting off funding to Planned Parenthood? 18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Answer choices Support cutting

40

Oppose cutting 30

Support cutting with non-abortion services Oppose cutting with non-abortion services

20 10

35.8

32.0

35.0

23.3 14.0

10.8

14.0

12.3

0

Responses (%)

10 20 30 40

73.0

80.3

80.8

84.5

58.0

59.8

63.3

80.5

50 60 70 80 90 With abortion services

Without abortion services

With abortion services

Without abortion services

With abortion services

Without abortion services

With abortion services

Without abortion services

Most Americans support Planned Parenthood. Of those who do not, access to abortions is the main reason for not supporting them.

Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. The data portrayed in this visualization was averaged from polls taken in 2017. NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.


72

Ncadd.org. (2018). [online] Available at: https://www.ncadd.org/about-addiction/addiction-update/alcohol-drugs-and-crime [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Jonathan P. Caulkins, Beau Kilmer, and Mark A.R. Kleiman, Marijuana Legalization: What Everyone Needs to Know, 2016 Vox. (2018). 13 states have decriminalized — but not legalized — marijuana. [online] Available at: https://www.vox.com/cards/marijuana-legalization/what-is-marijuana-decriminalization [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018].


73

Marijuana key issues

“Harmful drug” vs. “safer than alcohol” •

The federal government currently classifies marijuana as a schedule 1 drug alongside heroin as it is perceived to offer no medical value and has a high potential for abuse.

Concern for legalization include increased usage and possible addiction as well as a becoming a “gateway drug” to involvement in more severe drug-use.

Traffic deaths and arrests from DUIs have decreased an average of 11% in states that have legalized use, because marijuana users tend to be more cautious and take fewer risks.

The amount of crime and violence caused by alcohol use is ten times higher than by marijuana use and alcohol is a factor in around 40% of violent crimes.

Legalization for recreational use •

13 states have decriminalized possession, though it is still illegal.

Marijuana legalization could potentially help fight the opioid epidemic by providing a safer and legal alternative for pain relief.

Tax revenues in legal marijuana states provide funding to the police, drug treatment and mental health centers, housing programs, and school programs such as anti-bullying campaigns, youth mentoring, and public school grants.

Legalization for medical uses •

30 states have legalized for medical use, which has an overwhelming support of the public.

Medical marijuana has been proven to help with pain, nausea, anxiety, depression, muscle spasticity, and inflammatory bowel diseases such as Crohn’s disease, while causing minimal side effects.


74

DoDo you support oror oppose allowing adults to to legally use marijuana you support oppose allowing adults legally use Do you support or oppose allowing adults to legally use for medical purposes? marijuana for medical purposes if their doctor marijuana for medical purposes if their doctor prescribes it? prescribes it? 18-34 100

35-49 35-49

18-34

50-6450-64

65+ 65+

Answer choices Answer choices Support Support

100

Oppose Oppose

80

80

Responses (%)

Responses (%)

60

60

91 40

91

97 96 97 93 96 94 94 94 93 96 91 95 93 92 91 91 92 90 93 90 89 89 92

97 97 96 40 94 93 96 91 95 94 94 93 92 96 93 92 91 91 90 93 90 89 89 92

20

20

8/3/2017

7

1/11/2018

5

7

7

4/26/20184/26/2018

7

1/11/2018

7

4/20/2017

7

5

7

8/3/2017

9

2/23/2017

5

7

9

4/20/2017

7

5

2/23/2017 6/6/2016

7

6/6/20164/26/2018

8/3/20174/20/2017

4

4

1/11/2018 8/3/2017 4/26/20181/11/2018

5

6/6/2016

5

5

2/23/2017

1/11/2018

9

4/20/2017

5

5

9

4/26/2018

6

5

6

2/23/2017

3

6/6/2016

3

5

4/26/2018 8/3/2017

5

6

4/20/2017 6/6/2016 8/3/20172/23/2017

1/11/2018

6/6/2016

6

2/23/20174/26/2018

10

10

1/11/20184/20/2017

4

7

8/3/2017

4 4/20/2017

7

5

4/26/2018

8/3/2017 6/6/2016

4/20/2017

5

2/23/2017

3

2/23/2017

7

6/6/2016

0

3

7

1/11/2018

0

Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.


75

Percentage who think marijuana should be made legal in the United States or not vs. percentage who have recreationally used marijuana or not.

18-34 80

35-49

18-34

50-64 50-64

35-49

Yes/no, type Yes/no, type

65+ 65+

Yes, Yes,Legalization Legalization

80

Yes, recreationally Yes,Uses Uses recreationally No, Legalization

60

40

40

Responses (%)

Responses (%)

0

20.0 20

40

No, Uses recreationally

76.0 63.0

76.0 20

20

No, Legalization

No, Uses recreationally

60

63.0

67.3

67.3

50.0

50.0

56.7 46.0

56.7 46.0

41.2

41.2

25.0

0 20.0 37.0

20

40

25.0

28.3 49.0

37.0

28.3 49.0

38.5 51.0

52.2

38.5

74.0

51.0

52.2 74.0

60

80

60

Legalization Uses Legalization Uses recreationally recreationally

Legalization Uses Legalization Uses recreationally recreationally

80 Legalization Uses Legalization Uses recreationally recreationally

Legalization Uses Legalization Uses recreationally recreationally

Most Americans believe marijuana should be legal for medical purposes, but even those who use marijuana recreationally don’t always think it should be legal.

Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. The data portrayed in this visualization was averaged from polls taken in 2016-2018. NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.


76

Democracy Forward. (2018). Trump and Sexual Assault. [online] Available at: https://democracyforward.org/sidebar/sexual_assault_and_the_trump_administration [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Glamour. (2018). Every Powerful Man Facing Sexual Harassment Allegations. [online] Available at: https://www.glamour.com/gallery/post-weinstein-these-are-the-powerful-men-facing-sexual-harassment-allegations [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. You Are Not Alone. [online] Available at: https://metoomvmt.org/ [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018].


77

Sexual harassment key terms

MeToo: a movement founded in 2006 by Tarana Burke to help survivors of sexual violence find pathways to healing through resources and a community of advocates. •

The #metoo hashtag went viral after Harvey Weinstein was accused of decades worth of sexual misconduct allegations in October 2017, encouraging women worldwide to come out and share their stories.

17,700,000 women have reported a sexual assault since 1998.

Public figures of all backgrounds have faced accusations of misconduct including actors, journalists, politicians, doctors, and entertainers.

The MeToo Movement is criticized for the questionable validity of some reported cases of sexual harassment and punishment of the accused even if there is not substantial evidence of the crime.

key issues

The Trump Administration has quietly: •

Reversed the Department of Education’s initiative to address college sexual assault.

Proposed gutting the State Department office that works to end gender-based violence abroad.

Removed research on sexual violence from the White House website.


78

Generally, do you support or oppose the #MeToo movement? Generally, do you support or oppose the #MeToo movement? Answer choices Support

Age 8

Women 18-34

71

14

Women 35+ 10

Oppose

68 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Responses (%)

Do you think it is an acceptable byproduct of the #MeToo movement

Do you think it is an acceptable byproduct of the #MeToo movement for some men to lose for some men to lose their jobs over allegations of sexual misconduct, their jobs over allegations of sexual misconduct, even if those allegations are not backed up even if those allegations are evidence? not backed up by concrete evidence? by concrete Answer choices Acceptable

Age Women 18-34

48

Women 35+

25

65 70

60

50

40

Not acceptable

13 30

20

10

0

10

20

30

Responses (%)

Source: Vox/Morning Consult. The poll was conducted from March 2-8, 2018, among a national sample of 2,511 women 18 years and older. The interviews were conducted online and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of women based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment and region. NOTE: “No opinion” responses not shown.

Timeline of Select Sexual Harassment News – 9.7.17 through 8.1.18 9.7.17

10.18.17

Education Secretary Betsy DeVos announces she will withdraw guidance on schools’ responsibilities to address sexual assault and sexual harassment.

McKayla Maroney tweets that she was sexually assaulted by former team doctor Larry Nassar. He is accused of molesting over 250 young women, and has since been sentenced to 60 years in prison.

10.25.17

11.9.17

Actress Alyssa Milano tweets “If you’ve been sexually harassed or assaulted write ‘me too’ as a reply to this tweet,” and it quickly turned into a movement.

The Washington Post first publishes investigative piece about Republican Senate nominee Roy Moore’s alleged history of preying upon underage girls.


79

As a result of #MeToo, how likely do you think it is that women

As a result of #MeToo, how likely do you think it is that women will experience lower rates of will experience lower rates of sexual assault and harassment? sexual assault and harassment?

Answer choices Likely

Age 34

Women 18-34

47

Not likely

30

Women 35+ 30

55

20

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Responses (%)

As a result of #MeToo, how likely do you think it is that men will become more conscious of inappropriate behavior?

As a result of #MeToo, how likely do you think it is that men will become more conscious of inappropriate behavior?

Answer choices Likely

Age 24

Women 18-34

59 16

Women 35+ 20

10

Not likely 70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Responses (%)

Women of all ages agree that MeToo is a positive discussion to have as a society, but also believe women should have concrete evidence of their case.

Source: Vox/Morning Consult. The poll was conducted from March 2-8, 2018, among a national sample of 2,511 women 18 years and older. The interviews were conducted online and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of women based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment and region. NOTE: “No opinion” responses not shown.

Source: Chicago Tribune

10.12.17

4.16.18

Time magazine names the “Silence Breakers” its 2017 Person of the Year.

The New York Times and The New Yorker win the Pulitzer Prize for public service for their reporting of the #MeToo movement and bringing worldwide awareness to sexual misconduct in the workplace.

12.17.17

5.25.18

At the urging his party, U.S. Sen. Al Franken, D-Minn., says he’ll resign from Congress amid sexual misconduct allegations.

Harvey Weinstein turns himself in to New York authorities after being charged with rape and criminal sexual acts against two women in 2013 and 2004.


80

Gallup, I. (2018). Rating World Leaders: 2018. [online] Gallup.com. Available at: https://news.gallup.com/reports/225587/rating-world-leaders-2018.aspx [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Realclearpolitics.com. (2018). RealClearPolitics - President Trump Job Approval. [online] Available at: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018].


81

Leadership Approval The World’s View of U.S. Leadership: •

According to a Gallup survey conducted between March and November of 2017, the approval of U.S. leadership fell sharply from 48% (last year of Pres. Obama), to a historic low of 30%.

The U.S.’s image of leadership now trails Germany, China, and Russia, and has fallen by double digits in almost half of the 134 countries and areas surveyed. The biggest declines were in countries that have long been trade partners and allies, including falling from 60% approval in Canada to just 20%.

Leadership increased by 10 points or more in Liberia, Macedonia, Israel, and Belarus.

Domestic View of U.S. Leadership: •

As of the last week for July 2018, Congressional job approval averaged a mere 15% from surveys done by Economist, Reuters, Gallup, Quinnipiac, and Monmouth.

As of the last week for July 2018, Pres. Trump’s job approval averaged about 43% from surveys done by Rasmussen Reports, Economist, Reuters, Gallup, Harvard-Harris, and Marist.


82

Trump Approval/Disapproval

Trump Approval/Disapproval 35-49

18-34

60

57.5

Average approval for first-term Presidents since 1945

Trump Approval/Disapproval 40.5 35-49 38

18-34

40 30.5

29.5

27first-term 27 2657.5 Average26.5 26.7 approval for since 1945 26 Presidents 28 27.5 24.7 24.5 24 20 21.5 17 40.5 38 60

40

28

27 26

26.5 24

27

26.7

24.7

21.5

24.5

35.3 34

35

34.3

42

38.5 35.3 34

41.5 43.5 43

39.5 40.5 35

34.3

34

37

41.5 43.5 43

37

34

47

33

30

27.5

35

47

50-64 39.5 40.5

43 44

44 40

39.5

46.5

44 42 41.7 41.5

41

44.5

46.5

44 42 41.7 41.5

42.7 40.5

40

39.5

42.7 40.5

43 44

44

44

65+

41

42

42.3 39.5

39.3

44.5

41

44

45.5 46.5 41.5

40

17

0

20

33

20

Approve

Indicate highpoints

Disapprove

Indicate highpoints

Older generations tend to have a higher approval rate for President Trump.

Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. Average Presidential approval rating averaged from Gallup Historical Statistics and Trends.

April 2017

March 2017

January 2018 April 2018

February 2018

January 2017

March 2018 December 2017

October 2017

54

Disapprove

NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.

51

51 49.5

55.7

November 2017

January 2018

February 2018

September 2017

May 2017

November June2017 2017

April 2017

October 2017

August February 2017 2017

March2017 2017 September

April 2018

May 2017

March 2018

47

March 2018

54

55.3

June 2017 January 2017

March January2017 2018

December 2017

November 2017

February 2018 April 2017

54.3

August2017 2017 December

53 54

October 2017 January 2017

March August2018 2017

September 2017 April 2018

May 2017

June 2017

April2018 2017 January

February 2018

December March2017 2017

April 2018

January 2017

November February2017 2017

57

52.3 51 51.541 52 51.5 46.5 52 52.5 53.5 53 51 54 52.3 54.3 51.5 47 53 53 53.7 57 55

February 2017

57

October 2017

August February 2017 2018

May 2017

December 2017

October 2017 April 2017

November 2017

March 2017 September 2017

June 2017

August 2017

June 2017 January 2018

59 60.3

58.7

February 2017

April April2018 2017

May2017 2017 January

January 2017

January 2018

March March2018 2017

67

April2018 2018 January

74

February 2017

67.3

February 2018

62.5 60.5

March2017 2018 September

Approve

53 62.555 54 60.5 59 59.5

65

67

67.3 74

52.5 53 53 55 55 55 58 58 54 51 51.5 52 52.5 53 57 55 55 52 59 58.7 52.560.3 53.5 58 58 59 59.5

December March2017 2018

65

December 2017 October 2017

March 2017

March April2017 2017

February 2017

February 2017

January2017 2017 January

80 80

66.7

7068.5 68.5

64.5

August October2017 2017

70

66.7

64

64.5

November 2017 February 2018

65.5

64

November2017 2017 September

63

65.5

September 2017

61.5

63

June2017 2017 May

60

51

61.5

June 2017

60

51

August 2017

40

41 46.5

33

February 2017 April 2018

40

May2017 2017 April

Responses (%)

Responses (%)

26 20

29.5

42

38.5

33

30

35

30.5

0

50-64


83

Trump Approval/Disapproval

Congress Approval/Disapproval 35-49

18-34

60

Congress Approval/Disapproval

57.5

Average approval for first-term Presidents since 1945 18-34

28.7

40 20

24

20

22

28

20 0

40.5

24

21 18 21 17 16 16 29.5 13 27 1626 2715 26.7 26.5 3014 27.5 12 12 11 24.7 24.5 24 10 21.5 17

50-64

38

35 33 15 14

42

38.5 18 35.3 34 12

41.5 43.5 43

39.5 40.5

2134.3 35 34 10

37

15

13

8 6

65+

47

7

39.5

11 9

43 44

44

14

40.5

40

46.5

44 42 41.7 41.5

42.7

44.5

41

44

16

8

10

6

8

9

11

10 6

4

0 20

20 40

Approve Approve Disapprove Disapprove Indicate Indicatehighpoints highpoints

Younger generations tend to have a higher approval rate for Congress.

Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. Average Congressional approval ratings averaged from Gallup Historical Statistics and Trends. NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.

51

April 2017

March 2017

February 2017

4/11/2018 January 2017

2/7/2018 March 2018 3/7/2018 April 2018

12/5/20172017 December

12/19/2017 January 2018 1/18/20182018 February

October 2017 8/17/2017

8/24/20172017 November

September 8/3/20172017

June 2017 1/26/2017 August 2017 3/7/2017

April 2017 4/11/2018 May 2017 1/10/2017

1/26/2017 November 2017 3/7/2017 December 2017 8/3/2017 January 2018 8/17/2017 February 2018 8/24/2017 March 2018 12/5/2017 April 2018 12/19/2017 January 2017 1/18/2018 February 2017 2/7/2018 March 2017 3/7/2018

March 2018 3/7/2017 April 2018 8/3/2017

1/10/2017 January 2017 1/26/20172017 February 3/7/2017 March 2017

8/3/2017 April 2017 8/17/2017 May 2017 8/24/2017 June 2017 12/5/2017 August 2017 12/19/2017 September 2017 1/18/2018 October 2017 2/7/2018 November 2017 3/7/2018 December 2017 4/11/2018 January 2018 1/10/2017 February 1/26/20172018

80

4/11/20182017 September 1/10/2017 October 2017

80

47

67

2/7/2018 June 2017 3/7/2018 August 2017

60 68 61.5

52.3 51 51.5 51.5 52 52.5 53 53 55 55 55 52 52.5 53.5 6658 53 58 54 54 54.3 68 70 57 57 67 71 62.5 59 59 59.5 58.7 72 63 72 69 64.5 60.3 73 65 73 60.5 65.5 66.7 64 77 79 79 79 67 76 67.3 81 80 68.5 79 70 80 84 83 82 81 82 82 86 82 74 83 84 87 85 85 86 87 89 89 90 90 64

65

1/18/2018 May 2017

51

41 46.5

March 2017 12/5/2017

60

56

12/19/2017 April 2017

40

33

January 2017 8/17/2017 February 8/24/20172017

Responses (%) (%) Responses

35-49

Average Congressional approval since 2000

30.5

26

50-64


84

Nymag.com. (2018). Battle for the House. [online] Available at: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/07/battle-for-the-house-democrats-on-the-brink-100-days-out.html [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. SFGate. (2018). What’s at stake in the 2018 congressional midterm elections?. [online] Available at: https://www.sfgate.com/elections/article/2018-midterms-explained-basic-facts-overview-13127816. php [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Washington Post. (2018). [online] Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/redistricting-explained/2011/05/27/AGWsFNGH_story.html?utm_term=.d0aa97148c77 [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018]. Web.archive.org. (2018). Demand for Democracy. [online] Available at: https://web.archive.org/web/20100618221944/http://www.pewcenteronthestates.org/trends_detail.aspx?id=31674 [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018].


85

2018 Midterm Election Landscape key terms

redistricting: a legally required process that occurs every 10 years in which districts for the U.S. House and state legislatures are redrawn. Once the U.S. Census Bureau releases new population figures for each of the 50 states, seats in the U.S. House are handed out accordingly. wave election: a large shift from one party to another. A “blue wave” refers to large number of Democratic wins, while a “red wave” refers to a large number of Republican won seats.

key issues

Midterm elections are held at the halfway point of a presidential term. At that time: •

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election.

33 or 34 of the 100 seats of Senate are up for election

34 out of 50 of the U.S. states elect governors during midterms

Midterm elections typically generate only about 40% voter turnout, while presidential elections have a turnout about 50-60%

For a change of power, there would need to be a “blue wave” •

In the House, Democrats need to maintain their 194 seats plus flip 24 Republican seats.

In the Senate, they need to maintain 25 seats and gain at least two new seats.

While it is widely seen that it is possible for Democrats to win the House, the Senate would be much more difficult to win. This is because Democrats must defend 25 seats as opposed to the Republicans’ 8, and 10 of those seats are in states that votes for Trump in 2016.

Also of note is redistricting in the aftermath of the 2010 census that could make even the House difficult to win for Democrats.


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Average voter turnout in midterm elections Average voter turnout in midterm elections when the when the turnout generations were in each age range Average voter in midterm elections when the generations were inwere each age age range generations in each range Age range

Age range

18-24

18-24

Generation (2018 age)age) Generation (2018 Millennial (22-37) Millennial (22-37)

20

20

Gen X (38-53)

Gen X (38-53)

Baby Boomer (54-72)

21

21

Baby Boomer (54-72)

Silent (73-90)

Silent (73-90)

26

26

25-29

25-29

26

26

29

29

36

30-34

31

36

30-34

36

31

43

36

47

4340

35-39

48

47 35-39

54

40 40-44

43

48 50

54 40-44

43

45-49

57

43 52

50

57 0

5

10

15

20

25

45-49

30

35

Voter turnout (%)

40

45

50

55

59 60

43 52

Though voter turnout increases with age, Millennials are still the generation with the lowest voter turnout. 59

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Voter turnout (%)

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of the 1978-2014 Current Population Survey November Supplement (IPUMS). NOTE: Voter turnout refers to the share of adult citizens who say they voted.

50

55

60


87

Voting rates of Congressional and Presidential elections Voting rates of Congressional and Presidential elections 18-29

30-44

45-64

70

68.2 62.4

60

56.9

Voter turnout (%)

40

67.8

67.9

69.1

59.5

58.7 56

72

70.3

62

62

60

59.4

57

56

70.9

66.6 62

61.8

58.5

71

69.6

54 49.6

45 39.6

69.2

51.1

49

50

70.4

65+

46.1 42

41

40.3

42

40

37.8

30 25 22

23.1

23

22

20

10

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

0

Election Presidential Midterm

Millennials are more than half as likely to vote in Midterm elections than Baby Boomers and Silents.

Source: Washington Post analysis of Census Bureau Current Population Survey, using IPUMS-CPS, University of Minnesota; U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November 2014; U.S. Census Bureau, Voting in America: A Look at the 2016 Presidential Election (Figure 4. Reported Voting Rates by Age: 1980-2016). NOTE: Turnout rates differ depending how to define the voting-eligible population. In this analysis, the Voting-eligible population (VEP) is the percentage of all voting-age U.S. citizens reported voting in each post-election Current Population Survey.


88

How motivated to vote are you in the 2018 election?

How motivated to vote are you How motivated to vote are you in the 2018 election? in the 2018 election?

100

Motivation level Motivation level VeryVery motivated motivated

100

Somewhat motivated Somewhat motivated Not so motivated

Not so motivated

90

90

Not motivated at all

Not motivated at all 80

80 70

70

60

60

Responses (%)

81 50

83

Responses (%)

81 50

40

83

84

83

84

83

30

40 20

30

10

15 8

20

0 2

10

2

10

15

18-34

8

0 2

6 2

10 18-34

6

35-49

35-49 11

12

11 3

2

2

50-6412

65+

3 2

2

50-64

65+

Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. NOTE: “Don’t know/not assessed” responses not shown.


89

What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote in this year’s midterm election? What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote in this year's midterm election? Age

Issues

50-64

6 4 0

10

22

28

24 12

13

35-49

65+

13

9

18-34

23

22

23

23

25

17

26

24

17

20

30

40

50

5

24

60

70

Taxes

2 2

Immigration

2

Health care Gun policy

2 3

19

2

80

90

Economy Something else

8

DK/NA 100

Responses (%)

Percentage of registered vot ___ candidate

Younger generations are more concerned with gun policy, older generations more concerned with immigration.

Generation (2018 age) Source: Nationwide surveys conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. Millennial (22-37)

6

Gen X (38-53) Baby Boomer (54-72)

Percentage of registered voters whosupport say they support or the lean Percentage of registered voters who say they or lean toward toward the ___ candidate for Congress in their district ___ candidate for Congress in their district

Silent (73-90)

Generation (2018 age) Millennial (22-37)

62

Baby Boomer (54-72)

Republican 41

48

45

45

Silent (73-90) 60

50

40

30

Political party Democratic Republican

Source: Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults Jan. 10-15, 2018. NOTE: Based on registered voters. “Other/Don’t know” responses not shown.

51 20

10

0

Responses (%)

10

50

Political party Democratic

29 51

Gen X (38-53)

60

20

30

40

50

40


90

n every 2 years, 2-yea r ter lectio e r mp fo p u er R s e ep iv t res a t n en e s ta re tiv p e r e ll

435

2 R 35

D

19 3

A

2018 U.S.2018 Congressional Landscape U.S. Congressional Landscape

House of Representatives

100 D

51

47

R

Senate

2I

A

th ird of Se nat ors

up fo r

rm r te a e y election every 2 years, 6-

or at n e rS e p

Republican seat

Democrat seat

Current Independent seat up for election in 2018

Current Republican seat up for election in 2018

Current Democrat seat up for election in 2018

Vacant seat up for election in 2018


91

2018 Senate Midterm Elections Senate Midterm Elections 20182018 Senate Midterm Elections A majority of the seats up for election are currently held by Democrats.

To regain control of Senate, Democrats must win at least two NEW seats. A majority of the seats up for election are currently held by Democrats. To regain control of Senate, Democrats must win at least two NEW seats.

26 Democratic Incumbents

9 Republican Incumbents

26 Democratic Incumbents

9 Republican Incumbents

FL

Bill Nelson

AZ

Open (replacing Jeff Flake)

IN FL

JoeBill Donnelly Nelson Claire JoeMcCaskill Donnelly

NVAZ

Dean Heller Open (replacing Jeff Flake)

MOIN NDMO Heidi Heitkamp Claire McCaskill

Dean Heller Bob Corker) TNNV Open (replacing MSTN

Heitkamp MTND JonHeidi Tester

TX MS TedCindy Cruz Hyde-Smith

WVMT JoeJon Manchin TesterIII

MSTX

Joe Manchin MI WV Debbie StabenowIII

WYUT

WY

PA OH BobSherrod Casey Brown WI PA Tammy Baldwin Bob Casey

Tammy Baldwin Dianne Feinstein

CT CA

Christopher S. Murphy Dianne Feinstein Thomas R. Carper Christopher S. Murphy

DE CT HI DE

TedWicker Cruz Roger

NEMS DebRoger Fischer Wicker UT NE Open (replacing Deb Fischer Orrin G. Hatch)

MNMI Tina SmithStabenow Debbie NJMN Robert TinaMenendez Smith OHNJ Sherrod Brown Robert Menendez

CAWI

Open (replacing Bob Corker) Cindy Hyde-Smith

John Barrasso Open (replacing Orrin G. Hatch) John Barrasso

Mazie K. Hirono Thomas R. Carper Elizabeth Warren Mazie K. Hirono

MAHI MDMA Benjamin L. Cardin Elizabeth Warren MEMD Angus King Benjamin L. Cardin MNME Amy Klobuchar Angus King NMMN Martin AmyHeinrich Klobuchar NYNM Kirsten Gillibrand Martin Heinrich RI NY VA RI VT VA

Sheldon Whitehouse Kirsten Gillibrand TimSheldon Kaine Whitehouse

Bernie Tim Sanders Kaine WAVT Maria Cantwell Bernie Sanders WA

Maria Cantwell

Source: New York TImes

Perceived Likelihood of Winning Each Seat Solid Perceived Democrat Likely Democrat Solid Democrat Lean Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat

Likelihood Each Seat Tossupof WinningSolid Republican Tossup

Likely Republican Solid Republican Lean Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican


92

2018House Houseof ofRepresentative RepresentativeRaces Races 2018 2018 of up Representative Races (allHouse seats forelection) election) (all seats up for (all seats up for election) Districtscurrently currentlyrepresented representedbybyDemocrats Democrats Districts

Districtscurrently currentlyrepresented representedbybyRepublicans Republicans Districts

districts were won 9494 districts were won Trump 25% more byby Trump byby 25% oror more

There currently There areare currently 1212 House Democrats districts House Democrats in in districts that were won Trump that were won byby Trump

More Trump More Trump voters voters

25%pts pts R R+ +25%

Presidential Presidential votemargin margin vote eachdistrict district inineach

25%pts pts D D+ +25%

MoreClinton Clinton More voters voters

There currently There areare currently 2525 House Republicans districts House Republicans in in districts that were won Clinton that were won byby Clinton

182 districts were won 182 districts were won Clinton 25% more byby Clinton byby 25% oror more

Source: Information and graphic adapted from the New York TImes

PerceivedLikelihood LikelihoodofofWinning WinningEach EachSeat Seat Perceived Solid Democrat Solid Democrat

Tossup Tossup

Solid Republican Solid Republican

Likely Democrat Likely Democrat

Likely Republican Likely Republican

Lean Democrat Lean Democrat

Lean Republican Lean Republican


93

2018 House of Representative Races to Watch

2018 House of Representatives Races to Watch There are a total of 435 seats, and 218 necessary to control the chamber. There are 184 solidly Democratic seats and 156 solidly Republican seats. Democrats will need to flip 24 seats to capture the majority.

17 Races Lean Democrat

25 Races are Tossups

53 Races Lean Republican

Arizona 1

California 10

Arkansas 2

Nebraska 2

Arizona 2

California 25

Arizona 6

New Jersey 3

California 7

California 39

California 4

New Mexico 2

California 49

California 48

California 21

New York 1

Florida 7

Colorado 6

California 45

New York 11

Florida 27

Florida 26

Colorado 3

New York 24

Minnesota 7

Iowa 1

Florida 6

Ohio 1

New Hampshire 1

Illinois 6

Florida 15

Ohio 10

New Jersey 2

Illinois 12

Florida 16

Ohio 14

New Jersey 5

Kentucky 6

Florida 18

Ohio 15

New Jersey 11

Michigan 8

Florida 25

Pennsylvania 1

Nevada 3

Michigan 11

Georgia 6

Pennsylvania 10

Nevada 4

Minnesota 1

Georgia 7

Pennsylvania 16

Pennsylvania 6

Minnesota 2

Iowa 3

South Carolina 1

Pennsylvania 7

Minnesota 3

Illinois 13

Texas 21

Pennsylvania 8

Minnesota 8

Illinois 14

Texas 31

Virginia 10

New Jersey 7

Indiana 2

Texas 32

New York 19

Kansas 2

Utah 4

New York 22

Kansas 3

Virginia 2

Ohio 12

Maine 2

Virginia 5

Pennsylvania 17

Michigan 1

Washington 5

Texas 7

Michigan 6

Wisconsin 1

Texas 23

Michigan 7

Wisconsin 6

Virginia 7

Missouri 2

West Virginia 3

Washington 8

Montana at-large North Carolina 2 North Carolina 8 North Carolina 9 North Carolina 13

Source: New York TImes

The above covers the cloest races in 2018. Solid and likely Democrat or Replublican wins are excluded. Solid Democrat

Tossup

Solid Republican

Likely Democrat

Likely Republican

Lean Democrat

Lean Republican


94

Vote.gov. (2018). Register to vote. [online] Available at: https://vote.gov/ [Accessed 5 Aug. 2018].


95

VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! The basic steps to vote are the same in most states: REGISTRATION

Every state except North Dakota requires you to register to vote. •

Go to vote.gov to find out how to register in your state.

You can either register online or print and mail a filled out Voter Registration Form.

You can register in person with your state or local election office.

You can register at the DMV, armed services recruitment centers, or state and county public assistance offices.

• ABSENTEE VOTING

Depending on your state, you may need to register as much as a month before election.

Every state has absentee voting. •

Absentee voting allows you to vote by mail. Rules by state vary, but can include people who are military members, overseas, have an illness or disability that prevents getting to a designated polling place, being on business or vacation on Election Day, and being a student at an out-of-state university.

POLLING PLACES

To find out your state’s rules on absentee voting, go to usa.gov/election-office

Give yourself plenty of extra time to follow your state’s voting procedure.

Most states assign you a specific polling place, or voting location. •

Once your registration to vote has been processed, you can find your polling location by going to vote.org/polling-place-locator


96


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2018 Midterm Election Guide  

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