Page 1

ail

Market Overview S O UTH W E S T FL O R I D A

RETAIL

|

FIRST QUARTER

|

2010

www.colliersarnold.com


COLLIERS ARNOLD

|

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA

Insights on the Market RETAIL

|

FIRST QUARTER

|

2010

A Slow Return to Normal

MARKET INDICATORS SW FLORIDA INVENTORY 43,894,537 s.f. Q1

Q2*

OVERALL VACANCY 13.1%



ABSORPTION (71,280) s.f. CONSTRUCTION 58,005 s.f. NEW SUPPLY 0 s.f. AVG. DIRECT ASKING LEASE RATE, st 1 GENERATION SPACE $17.10 AVG. DIRECT ASKING LEASE RATE, nd 2 GENERATION SPACE $14.62



         

*Projected, relative to prior period Note: Directional arrows compare current quarter to previous quarter historically adjusted figures.

The retail industry faced many challenges throughout the country over the past few years. Numerous retailers closed their doors, while others reorganized or downsized to maintain operations. These adjustments have diminished allowing more activity to emerge in the retail industry during the first quarter of 2010. National retail sales were stronger than anticipated in March, according to the latest survey published by the National Retail Federation. The industry experienced a 0.9 percent growth in sales over the previous month with the apparel, home goods, outdoor equipment and furniture segments experiencing the largest increases. National GDP continued to remain positive for the third consecutive quarter, after four straight quarters of contraction from Q3 2008 to Q2 2009. The local unemployment figures, which quickly eroded during the past three years, are finally experiencing a noticeable decline as businesses are beginning to hire again. The current unemployment rate is 13.5 percent, down 0.5 percent when compared to the previous month. Consumer attitude has adjusted and retailers are adapting. Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar continued to focus on the economic recessionary conditions to cater to budget-conscious consumers. The dollar store segment expects to open approximately 1,500 stores nationwide over the course of 2010. Discount retailers now have the ability to occupy space within sought after areas due to discounted rental rates. Walgreens and Target recently announced plans to adapt their business models to significantly expand into the grocery segment throughout 2010. Other retailers are experimenting with “pop-up” stores that occupy small spaces for short term periods to capture a niche within a submarket. The end-result of these new concepts is a new retail market traveling in uncharted waters. Regardless of the success or failure of these new concepts, the activity will garner consistent positive absorption over the coming year. Vacancy beginning to stabilize, rental rates still falling. During the first quarter of 2010, the Southwest Florida retail market continued to experience negative absorption throughout the market. However, this downward trend is beginning to show signs of retreating, as evidenced by negative absorption of 71,280 square feet compared to the previous quarter’s negative net absorption of 389,552 square feet. As fewer retailers are vacating spaces in the market, this has allowed the overall average vacancy rate to stabilize in the first quarter. Currently, 13.1 percent of the market is vacant, marginally higher than the 13.0 percent average experienced during the fourth quarter of 2009. Landlords continued to lower asking rental rates which in turn began the stabilization of the market. At the end of the first quarter, the average asking rental rate was $15.05 per square foot triple net. First generation space is currently asking $17.10 per square foot whereas second generation is averaging $14.62 per square foot triple net. SOUTHWEST FLORIDA RETAIL SERVICE GROUP Jim Garinger, CCIM, SIOR

Andrew Falde, CCIM

Karen Johnson-Crowther

jgaringer@colliersarnold.com

afalde@colliersarnold.com

kcrowther@colliersarnold.com

Karl Lippek, P.E., CCIM

William Mankin

Jim Tamblyn, CCIM

klippek@colliersarnold.com

wmankin@colliersarnold.com

jtamblyn@colliersarnold.com

Kimberly Lamb, CPM www.colliersarnold.com

klamb@colliersarnold.com

COLLIERS ARNOLD | 1


2010

|

FIRST QUARTER REPORT

|

RETAIL

|

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AVERAGE ASKING LEASE RATES (NNN)

OVERALL RETAIL MARKET STATISTICS

Completions

Net Absorption

1st Generation Space

Overall Vacancy

2nd Generation Space

$25.00

1,000

600

10.5%

9.9%

800

10%

400

8%

200

6%

0

4%

(200)

2%

(400)

$20.00

Asking Rates

11.7%

12% Vacancy

13.1%

13.0%

14%

Square Feet (In Thousands)

16%

$15.00

$10.00

$5.00

(600)

0% Q1 '09

Q2 '09

Q3 '09

Q4 '09

$0.00

Q1 '10

Q1 '09

Q4 '09

Q1 '10

National GDP

Benchmark Level

8.0

110

5.6

6.0

100

3.6

4.0 Percent Change

Consumer Confidence Index

Q3 '09

NATIONAL GDP

FLORIDA CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

Consumer Confidence Index

Q2 '09

90 80

72

71

69

70

71

72

72

67

74 69

77 73

69

71

3.2

3.0

1.4

2.1

1.5

3.2

2.0

2.2

1.2

0.0

0.1

(0.7)

(0.7)

(2.0)

(2.7)

(4.0)

60

(5.4)

(6.0)

50

(6.4)

(8.0)

Apr. May. Jun. July. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. 2009

Q2

2010

Q3 2006

Month and Year

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2007

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2008

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2009

Q4

Q1 2010

Quarter & Year

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis – U.S. Department of Commerce

UNEMPLOYMENT SNAPSHOT Unemployment Rate Florida

Fort M yers M SA

USA

The local unemployment rate for the Southwest Florida metropolitan area decreased significantly to 13.5 percent in the month of March 2010 from the previous month’s unemployment rate of 14.0 percent. This time period one year ago, the unemployment rate was 11.3 percent. More than 8,000 jobs have been lost in the area since March 2009. The state of Florida rate was 12.0 percent in March 2010. This compares to the United States rate of 10.2 percent.

14 12 10 8 6 4

Source: Florida Research and Economic Database

2 | COLLIERS ARNOLD

Mar-10

Sep-09

Mar-09

Sep-08

Mar-08

Sep-07

Mar-07

Sep-06

Mar-06

Sep-05

2 Mar-05

Unemployment Rate (%)

16


SOUTHWEST FLORIDA

|

RETAIL

|

FIRST QUARTER

|

2010

SUBMARKET TRENDS

16%

200

14%

16% 100 0

12% 10%

(100)

8%

(200)

6% (300) 4% 2% 0%

60

50

10%

40

8%

20

6%

0

4%

(20)

2%

(40)

(50)

6% (100) 4% 2%

(500)

0%

(150)

(200)

0%

(60)

Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10

Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10

Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10

LEHIGH

CHARLOTTE COUNTY

NAPLES

Completions

Overall Vacancy

4

14%

3 2

10%

1 8% 0 6% (1) 4%

(2)

2%

(3)

0%

(4) Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10

Overall Vacancy

9%

140

8%

120 100

7%

80 6% Vacancy

12%

Net Absorption

60

5%

40

4%

20 0

3%

(20) 2%

(40)

1%

Completions

Vacancy

Net Absorption

Square Feet (In Thousands)

Completions

Vacancy

8%

Overall Vacancy

12%

0

10%

Net Absorption

100

12%

(400)

Square Feet (In Thousands)

Vacancy

14%

Completions

Overall Vacancy

Net Absorption

Overall Vacancy

14%

1,000

12%

800

10%

600

8%

400

6%

200

4%

0

2%

(200)

(60)

0%

(80) Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10

0%

(400) Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10

SUBMARKET OVERVIEW Positive absorption has returned in three of the six submarkets during the first quarter. The Charlotte County submarket registered the highest amount of absorption with a posting of 53,488 square feet. Vacancy within the submarket decreased a full percentage point to 7.4 percent from 8.4 percent in the previous quarter. The increase in the amount of completed deals during the first quarter aided in the decline in vacancy. Approximately 15 deals were completed, up significantly from the six reported in the previous quarter. Since the second quarter of 2009, the Fort Myers submarket has experienced a continual increase in the average vacancy rate. During the first quarter of 2010, leveling began to occur holding vacancy at 17.6 percent when compared to the asdasdas

Square Feet (In Thousands)

18%

300

Net Absorption

previous quarter. Net absorption was slightly positive at 4,926 square feet. The average rental rate declined significantly to $13.58 per square foot triple net from $14.59 in the fourth quarter of 2009. Construction activity increased in the submarket to 58,005 square feet from 23,512 square feet in the fourth quarter. The Bonita/Estero submarket has registered two consecutive quarters of positive absorption. During the first quarter of 2010, 11,703 square feet of space was absorbed. The average vacancy rate fell from 10.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 9.7 percent in the current quarter. Construction activity remains nonexistent and rental rates continue to decline. The average asking rental rate is currently $15.26 per square foot triple net, down from $15.51 per square foot triple net in the previous quarter.

COLLIERS ARNOLD | 3

Square Feet (In Thousands)

20%

Completions

Vacancy

Overall Vacancy

Vacancy

Net Absorption

Square Feet (In Thousands)

Completions

BONITA / ESTERO

CAPE CORAL / N. FT. MYERS

Square Feet (In Thousands)

FORT MYERS


2010

|

FIRST QUARTER

|

RETAIL

|

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MARKET STATISTICS

Sbmrkt Qtr. & Year

Bldgs.

Total Inventory S.F.

Direct Vac. %

Total Vac. %

Net Absorp. Current Qtr. S.F.

Net Absorp. YTD S.F.

New Completions S.F.

Under Construc. S.F.

Avg. Direct Asking Rate NNN

HIGHLIGHTED SW FLORIDA SUBMARKETS Fort Myers Q1 '10

221

13,502,692

17.1%

17.6%

4,926

4,926

0

58,005

$13.58

Cape Coral/ N. Ft. Myers Q1 '10

111

5,861,644

12.1%

14.0%

-101,024

-101,024

0

0

$14.34

17

758,063

12.2%

12.2%

-2,202

-2,202

0

0

$14.81

4,986,720

7.4%

7.4%

53,488

53,488

0

0

$14.55

95

5,282,702

9.7%

9.7%

11,703

11,703

0

0

$15.26

247

12,434,510

10.5%

11.9%

-36,571

-36,571

0

0

$18.20

Bldgs.

Total Inventory S.F.

Direct Vac. %

Total Vac. %

Net Absorp. Current Qtr. S.F.

Net Absorp. YTD S.F.

New Completions S.F.

Under Construc. S.F.

Avg. Direct Asking Rate NNN

13.1%

-71,280

-71,280

0

58,005

$15.05 $16.49

Lehigh Q1 '10

Charlotte County Q1 '10

86

Bonita/Estero Q1 '10

Naples Q1 '10

Qtr. & Year

SW FLORIDA OVERALL MARKET 2010 1Q

802

43,894,537

12.3%

2009 4Q

802

43,894,537

12.1%

13.0%

-389,552

-694,683

174,730

23,512

2009 3Q

799

43,706,907

11.1%

11.7%

-403,352

-305,131

147,120

211,142

$17.35

2009 2Q

797

43,559,787

9.9%

10.5%

-138,223

98,221

89,555

345,262

$18.05

2009 1Q

793

43,455,523

9.4%

9.9%

236,444

236,444

884,072

358,394

$18.64

2008 4Q

782

42,571,351

8.2%

8.6%

20,308

1,738,236

296,921

1,013,236

$19.40

2008 3Q

772

42,274,430

7.9%

8.0%

1,080,950

1,717,928

1,014,356

1,280,893

$20.24

2008 2Q

757

41,056,805

7.6%

7.9%

455,877

636,978

387,085

2,168,489

$20.83

2008 1Q

750

40,369,720

7.4%

7.5%

181,101

181,101

1,026,240

2,461,800

$20.77

4 | COLLIERS ARNOLD


SOUTHWEST FLORIDA

|

RETAIL

|

FIRST QUARTER

|

2010

COLLIERS ARNOLD www.colliersarnold.com

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HIGHLIGHTED SUBMARKETS

4 OFFICES THROUGHOUT FLORIDA TAMPA ORLANDO CLEARWATER FT MYERS

(813) 221-2290 (407) 843-1723 (727) 442-7184 (239) 418-0300

OUR SERVICES: BROKERAGE – SALES & LEASING TENANT REPRESENTATION PROPERTY MANAGEMENT VALUATION & ADVISORY CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT RECEIVERSHIPS RESEARCH & GIS

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.colliers.com 294 OFFICES IN 61 COUNTRIES ON 6 CONTINENTS USA 94 CANADA 22 LATIN AMERICA 17 ASIA PACIFIC 64 EMEA 97

FIRST QUARTER 2010 TRANSACTION HIGHLIGHTS LEASING ACTIVITY SHOPPING CENTER NAME/ PROPERTY ADDRESS

CONTACTS TENANT NAME

SIZE (SF)

LEASE TYPE

SUBMARKET

Hitching Post Plaza 11502-11574 Tamiami Trail E

Nationwide Insurance

4,000

NEW/DIRECT

NAPLES

Shops at Surfside 2342-2354 Surfside Blvd

Dollar Tree

9,065

NEW/DIRECT

CAPE CORAL / N. FT. MYERS

Lucky Nugget

3,600

NEW / DIRECT

NAPLES

Whiteshell Corp.

4,400

NEW / DIRECT

NAPLES

N/A

6,500

NEW / DIRECT

CAPE CORAL / N. FT. MYERS

1338 Del Prado Blvd S

Yogurt Island

1,350

NEW / DIRECT

CAPE CORAL / N. FT. MYERS

Publix Shopping Center 16950-16970 San Carlos Blvd

Pharmacology Pharmacy

1,680

NEW / DIRECT

FORT MYERS

1361-1383 Airport Pulling Rd N Charleston Square 1400 Gulf Shore Blvd N Hancock Bridge Shopping Square 13370-13704 N Cleveland Ave

FOR OTHER LOCAL REPORTS VISIT – http://www.colliers.com/Markets/FortMyers/Research/ FOR NATIONAL REPORTS VISIT – http://www.colliers.com/Research/ This Colliers Arnold market report includes retail space 10,000+ s.f. located within shopping centers in Lee, Charlotte and Collier Counties. Rates quoted are triple net asking rates. First Generation space is defined as space built after 2006. Second Generation space is space built prior to 2006. Directional arrows compare current quarter numbers to previous quarter numbers. Arrows show change when there is a 10 cent or more change in lease rate or 0.5% or more change in vacancy rate. Due to continual updates and refinements in the historical database, some of the data in this report may not match data published in previous reports. Sources: CoStar Property and Colliers Arnold. Colliers Arnold is a member firm of Colliers International - a worldwide affiliation of independently owned and operated companies with over 294 offices throughout more than 61 countries. Questions should be directed to Colliers Arnold Research at: drice@colliersarnold.com or by phone at 407.843.1723. Report written by Daniel Rice, GIS/Research Coordinator. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but not guaranteed. No representation is made as to the accuracy thereof. Data as of 04/07/2010.

BROKERAGE & CONSULTING Lee Arnold, CCIM, CRE larnold@colliersarnold.com Kimberly Lamb, CPM klamb@colliersarnold.com GIS & RESEARCH Daniel Rice drice@colliersarnold.com Matthew Dolan mdolan@colliersarnold.com MARKETING Elizabeth Cross ecross@colliersarnold.com

www.colliersarnold.com COLLIERS ARNOLD | 5


www.colliersarnold.com

Southwest_FL_Retail_Market_Report-Q1_10  

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA R E T A I L | F I R S T Q U A R T E R | 2 0 1 0 www.colliersarnold.com ail

Read more
Read more
Similar to
Popular now
Just for you