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CLOSUP Working Paper Series Number 3 February 2009

Emissions Trading, Electricity Industry Restructuring, and Investment in Pollution Abatement Meredith Fowlie, University of Michigan

This paper is available online at http://closup.umich.edu

Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy or any sponsoring agency

Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy University of Michigan


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')5-#4+0/ +/ 4*' ! -'%42+%+49 /&53429

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0.1-+#/%' *0+%'3 +/ ')5-#4'& #2,'43

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0.1-+#/%' *0+%'3 +/ '3425%452'& #2,'43

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'O DN <GNJ RJMOC IJODIB OC<O OC@ @NODH<O@? O@>CIJGJBT >JINO<ION <M@ G<MB@M DI <=NJGPO@ Q<GP@ RC@I OC@ HJ?@G DN @NODH<O@? PNDIB ?<O< AMJH M@BPG<O@? H<MF@ON <N >JHK<M@? OJ M@NOMP>OPM@? H<MF@ON 2C@N@ >JINO<ION <M@ H@<IO OJ M@KM@N@IO <Q@M<B@ =D<N@N AJM JM <B<DINO < K<MOD>PG<M O@>CIJGJBT OTK@ OC@M@ DN IJ M@<NJI OJ @SK@>O H<I<B@MN DI < M@BPG<O@? H<MF@O NCJPG? =@ <IT HJM@ =D<N@? <B<DINO AJM @S<HKG@ GJR ,-S =PMI@M O@>CIJGJBT <N >JHK<M@? OJ < H<I<B@M JA < NDHDG<M KG<IO DI < M@NOMP>OPM@? @G@>OMD>DOT H<MF@O  GDF@GT @SKG<I<ODJI AJM OC@ ?D^@M@I>@N DI OC@ >J@]>D@IO @NODH<O@N DN OC<O OC@ Q<MD<I>@ JA OC@ M@ND?P<G Q<MD<ODJI ><KOPM@? =T OC@ @SOM@H@ Q<GP@ @MMJM O@MH DN NH<GG@M DI M@BPG<O@? @G@>OMD>DOT H<MF@ON 'A OCDN DN OC@ ><N@ OC@ J=N@MQ@? <=NJGPO@ ?D^@M@I>@ DI >JNO >J@]>D@IO @NODH<O@N <>MJNN HJ?@GN RDGG ?8/0< @NODH<O@ OC@ ?D^@M@I>@ DI OC@ OMP@ >JNO >J@]>D@ION  'O DN >JHHJI DI OC@ GDO@M<OPM@ OJ <NNPH@ OC<O >JNO >J@]>D@ION <M@ GJBIJMH<GGT ?DNOMD=PO@? NJ <N OJ @INPM@ OC@ < KMDJMD @SK@>O@? I@B<ODQ@ ?JH<DI AJM OC@ ?DNOMD=PODJI >JNON @IO@M OC@ HJ?@G <N I@B<ODQ@ IPH=@MN  &@INC@M <I? %M@@I@ ?DN>PNN NJH@ JA OC@ ?M<R=<>FN JA <NNPHDIB < GJBIJMH<G ?DNOMD=PODJI 1@Q@M<G JOC@M M@N@<M>C@MN M@KJMO C<QDIB KMJ=G@HN RDOC GJB IJMH<G NK@>DW><ODJIN N@@ 0@Q@GO <I? 2M<DI  MJRINOJI@ <I? 2M<DI  




>JI?DODJI<G H@<IN <M@ NDBIDW><IOGT G<MB@M OC<I U@MJ NPBB@NODIB OC<O Q<MD<ODJI DI OC@ >JI?DODJI<G H@<IN ><KOPM@N < NDBIDW><IO KJMODJI JA OC@ OJO<G @NODH<O@? Q<MD<ODJI 0@Q@GO <I? 2M<DI   2C@ @G<NOD>DOD@N DHKGD@? =T OC@ HJ?@G @NODH<O@N KMJQD?@ < HJM@ DIOPDODQ@ >C<M<>O@MDU<ODJI JA OC@ M@NKJINDQ@I@NN JA >JHKGD<I>@ ?@>DNDJIN OJ >C<IB@N DI >JHKGD<I>@ >JNON 2<=G@  KM@N@ION <Q @M<B@ @G<NOD>DOD@N RDOC M@NK@>O OJ =JOC JRI ><KDO<G >JNON <I? JRI <Q@M<B@ JUJI@ N@<NJI Q<MD<=G@ >JHKGD<I>@ >JNON AJM OC@ HJNO >JHHJIGT J=N@MQ@? >JHKGD<I>@ >CJD>@N #G<NOD>DOD@N AJM @<>C >CJD>@ NDOP<ODJI <M@ ><G>PG<O@? PNDIB KJDIO @NODH<O@N JA OC@ H@<IN JA OC@ >JMM@NKJI?DIB H<I<B@M NK@>DW> >JI?DODJI<G ?DNOMD=PODJIN 2C@N@ NPHH<MT NO<ODNOD>N DI?D><O@ OC<O >CJD>@ KMJ=<=DGDOD@N DI M@NOMP> OPM@? H<MF@ON <M@ NDBIDW><IOGT HJM@ N@INDODQ@ OJ >C<IB@N DI >JHKGD<I>@ >JNON DI B@I@M<G <I? ><KDO<G >JNON DI K<MOD>PG<M $JM @S<HKG@ OC@ HJ?@G KM@?D>ON OC<O < JI@ K@M>@IO DI>M@<N@ DI OC@ ><KDO<G >JNO JA <I 1!0 M@OMJWO CJG?DIB <GG @GN@ @LP<G RDGG M@NPGO DI <  K@M>@IO ?@>M@<N@ DI OC@ KMJ=<=DGDOT OC<O 1!0 RDGG =@ >CJN@ =T OC@ PIDO DI < M@NOMP>OPM@? @G@>OMD>DOT H<MF@O Q@MNPN <  K@M>@IO ?@ >M@<N@ DA OC@ PIDO DN DI < M@BPG<O@? H<MF@O 2C@ >JMM@NKJI?DIB Q<MD<=G@ >JNO @G<NOD>DOD@N <M@  <I?  M@NK@>ODQ@GT N DI OC@ !* ><N@ OC@ M<ODJN JA OC@ 0!* @NODH<O@N JA OC@ >JNO >J@]>D@ION  !   <M@ >JHK<M@? <>MJNN @G@>OMD>DOT H<MF@O OTK@N  ?DM@>O >JHK<MDNJI JA M<ODJN JA >J@]>D@ION <>MJNN BMJPKN DN KJNND=G@ =@><PN@ OC@ N><G@ K<M<H@O@M ><I>@GN JPO 0@><GG OC<O OCDN M<ODJ ><I =@ DIO@MKM@O@? <N < H@<NPM@ JA RDGGDIBI@NN OJ K<T 52. DI DI>M@<N@? PK AMJIO ><KDO<G >JNON AJM < JI@ ?JGG<M ?@>M@<N@ DI <IIP<G >JHKGD<I>@ >JNON 3NDIB OC@ 0!* HJ?@G @NODH<O@N JA OC@ <Q@M<B@ KJKPG<ODJI K<M<H@O@MN OC@ KJDIO @NODH<O@N JA OCDN M<ODJ <M@  <I?  DI M@NOMP>OPM@? <I? M@BPG<O@? H<MF@ON M@NK@>ODQ@GT -I <Q@M<B@ H<I<B@MN DI M@NOMP>OPM@? @G@>OMD>DOT H<MF@ON R@M@ RDGGDIB OJ OJG@M<O@ CDBC@M Q<MD<=G@ JK@M<ODIB >JNON DI JM?@M OJ <QJD? C<QDIB OJ H<F@ G<MB@M PK AMJIO DIQ@NOH@ION <N >JHK<M@? OJ H<I<B@MN DI M@BPG<O@? @G@>OMD>DOT H<MF@ON +<FDIB NO<ODNOD><G DIA@M@I>@N <=JPO OC@ ?D^@M@I>@ =@OR@@I OC@N@ ORJ 52. @NODH<O@N M@LPDM@N @NODH<ODIB OC@ Q<MD<I>@N JA OC@N@ M<ODJN 3IAJMOPI<O@GT NO<I?<M? <KKMJ<>C@N OJ @NODH<ODIB OC@ Q<MD<I>@ JA < API>ODJI JA M<I?JH Q<MD<=G@N NP>C <N PNDIB OC@ ?@GO< H@OCJ? JM < =JJONOM<K <M@ !

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  2CDN R<T OC@ ?DNOMD=PODJI JA OC@ M<ODJ DN NDHKGT OC@ ?DNOMD=PODJI JA OC@ IPH@M<OJM M@N><G@? &JR@Q@M M@>@IO RJMF =T 1JIID@M @O <G  NCJRN OC<O >JINOM<DIDIB OC@ >J@]>D@IO DI OC@ ?@IJHDI<OJM OJ =@ WS@? DI JM?@M OJ B@O < M<ODJ OC<O DN IJMH<GGT ?DNOMD=PO@? M@NPGON DI <I JQ@M@NODH<O@ JA OC@ Q<MD<I>@ JA OC@ M<ODJ @Q@I RC@I OC@ OMP@ Q<MD<I>@ DN NH<GG -OC@M M@N@<>C@MN C<Q@ M@K<M<H@O@MDU@? OC@ 0!* HJ?@G NJ <N OJ D?@IODAT OC@ M<ODJ ?DM@>OGT 0@K<M<H@O@MDU<ODJI DN <>>JHKGDNC@? =T H<FDIB <GO@MI<ODQ@ D?@IODW><ODJI <NNPHKODJIN 0<OC@M OC<I N@O OC@ N><G@ K<M<H@O@M OJ JI@ JI@ JA OC@ >J@]>D@ION DI OC@ HJ?@G DN M@NOMD>O@? OJ @LP<G JI@ 2M<DI <I? 5@@FN  1JIID@M @O <G   2CDN <KKMJ<>C DN DI<KKMJKMD<O@ AJM OCDN <KKGD><ODJI RC@M@ OC@ ><KDO<G >JNO <I? Q<MD<=G@ >JNO >J@]>D@ION <M@ GDF@GT OJ ?D^@M <>MJNN HJ?@GN




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Emissions Trading, Electricity Industry Restructuring, and Investment in Pollution Abatement  

This paper analyzes an emissions trading program that was introduced to reduce smog-causing pollution from large stationary sources (primari...

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