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ECONOMICS RESEARCH

23 June 2009

EURO AREA HOUSING MARKET A collapse in confidence This is an extract from the AAA Handbook 2009, published on 10 June. Euro area house prices look likely to decline by around 5% this year and again in 2010. Even though financing costs look to be in theory at relatively attractive levels, banks have been tightening credit. More importantly, with the worst recession in Europe’s post-war history, the combination of macroeconomic fundamentals is extremely adverse and unlikely, in our view, to improve sufficiently in the quarters immediately ahead to arrest the collapse in confidence that now afflicts the euro area housing markets. There is still evidence of excess construction investment in relation to GDP: the process of construction re-balancing is likely to continue for several quarters, particularly in countries like Spain and Ireland, where it is leading to surging unemployment, and proving to be a depressing influence on real GDP expansion. From the perspective of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy, the unprecedented weakness in the euro area housing market argues in favour of monetary policy being kept in a highly accommodative stance for a very sustained period of time, as the adjustment process continues to play out.

Figure 1: Historical house prices/income ratios*

25

25 Japan

% y/y

20

20

15 UK

15

10 5

euro area 10

0 US

5 Belgium

France

-5 -10

0 1920

Figure 2: Euro area house prices lag US

-15 1940

1960

1980

2000

Note: * “income” is defined as per capita personal disposable income.. Source: Barclays Capital using national sources. Latest reading: Q1 09 est.

euro area US (existing home sales average selling price) 76 80

84 88 92 96

00 04 08

Source: Thomson Datastream, Barclays Capital

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES STARTING AFTER PAGE 12

Julian Callow +44 (0) 20 7773 1369 julian.callow@barcap.com www.barcap.com


Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market

Summary The euro area housing market and construction sector have been dealt particularly severe shocks during the past 12 months. The financial turmoil has led to a sharp tightening in credit standards, while housing demand has slumped on account of surging unemployment and worsening income prospects. For example, nominal GDP is poised to shrink around 3% this year (it fell 3.2% y/y in Q1) – the first time in post-war history that it has fallen. Moreover, even though the European Central Bank has slashed interest rates, thereby bringing down mortgage rates (particularly for southern Europe), European households have learnt that real estate prices can indeed decline. What’s more, for most markets, the credit boom and speculation had led to house prices moving to record highs in relation to incomes (in this section, for reasons of consistency, we use per capita personal disposable income (PDI) as the benchmark for income valuations). Figure 1 provides some historical perspective on typical house prices (using our BarCap historical database) in relation to per capita disposable income. As can be seen, this kind of PE analysis suggests that house price/income ratios, as with other asset prices, can re-rate and de-rate over very long periods, depending upon key variables such as unemployment, interest rates, credit availability, etc. Meanwhile, we can observe (Figure 2) that euro area house prices tend to lag those in the US (which have fallen sharply). As a consequence of both personal economic developments, financial conditions and expectations, households’ desire to purchase housing has collapsed to record lows (Figure 3). Together with a substantial excess of supply in some markets (notably Spain and Ireland), house prices have begun to move into significantly negative territory.

Figure 3: Consumer sentiment subcomponent – home purchase intention in next 12mths -60 Euro area

Germany

France

Italy

Spain

UK

-65 -70 -75 -80 -85 -90 -95 -100 1990

94

98

02

06

2010

Source: Thomson Datasream, Barclays Capital, using European Commission household survey diffusion balances

Our expectation (Figure 4) is that house prices in the euro area will decline around 5% both in 2009 and in 2010. Partly this reflects our view that the process of economic improvement will be slow. Even though our current forecasts envisage economic stabilisation during H2 and some modest recovery in GDP during H1 10, this seems unlikely to be enough to prevent unemployment from increasing substantially during the next two years. While the ECB is likely to maintain especially accommodative financing conditions, we do appear to be witnessing a significant adjustment phase in which for those markets that have had relatively elevated prices in relation to incomes (and especially those plagued by excess supply – Figure 5), there is likely to be large downwards pressure on prices. In particular, this implies strong further declines to be felt in Spanish, Irish and Dutch housing. 24 June 2009

2


Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market

Figure 4: Key house price changes % change y/y

Aust.

Belg.

Fin.

Fra.

Germ.

2004

-2.7

12.0

5.7

15.3

-0.8

2005

5.9

16.7

6.2

15.2

-0.1

2006

4.0

11.1

8.3

12.0

0.5

2007

4.1

9.2

6.0

6.6

0.7

Grec.

Eire

Italy

2.5

11.6

10.4

10.9

11.8

7.7

12.2

13.4

5.1

4.6

1.0

6.1

NL

Port.

Spa.

Euro

UK*

3.0

3.9

17.4

8.8

11.2

4.1

2.9

13.9

9.0

6.5

5.1

0.3

10.4

7.4

4.7

3.6

0.5

5.8

4.9

10.9

2008

1.3

5.8

1.2

1.2

0.5

2.6

-8.8

4.5

-0.3

-4.3

0.7

1.5

-1.1

2009 E

3.0

-2.3

-8.9

-7.9

-1.7

1.5

-10.1

0.7

-13.7

-4.1

-10.5

-5.2

-11.4

2010 F

-3.1

-3.8

-2.3

-4.4

-3.0

1.0

-6.4

-4.7

-8.0

-3.9

-9.1

-4.9

-0.3

Memo: price (â‚Źk Q4 07)

169

195

138

207

169

135

325

194

255

96

181

185

200

Note: * in ÂŁ. Source: Barclays Capital using national sources (see Appendix for further details)

Figure 5: Comparing housing starts with the change in household units and in the population thousands

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009e

Housing starts

317

310

303

303

323

363

410

434

437

368

310

Households, change (3y m.a.)

205

131

222

314

314

314

314

326

338

350

330

Imbalance (starts less households)

112

178

81

-11

9

50

97

109

99

18

-20 196

France

Germany Housing completions

473

423

326

290

268

278

242

249

211

202

78

202

281

541

517

470

153

274

200

181

300

395

221

45

-252

-249

-192

90

-25

11

21

-104

Households, chge (3y m.a.) Imbalance Ireland Housing completions

47

50

53

58

69

78

78

89

74

49

30

Households, chge (3y m.a.)

22

32

31

22

44

39

51

29

29

29

25

Imbalance

25

19

22

37

26

38

27

60

45

20

5

Italy Housing starts

162

178

170

171

174

179

188

196

204

200

180

Households, chge (3y m.a.)

118

107

169

259

368

448

393

358

330

317

287

44

71

0

-88

-194

-269

-205

-162

-126

-117

-107

Imbalance Netherlands Housing completions

79

71

73

67

60

65

67

72

80

79

75

Households, chge (3y m.a.)

54

60

78

63

59

53

52

50

47

50

40

Imbalance

25

10

-5

4

1

12

15

22

33

29

35

Housing starts

511

534

300

543

622

691

716

760

616

360

300

Households, chge (3r m.a.)

236

268

307

342

372

406

440

483

477

434

404

Imbalance

275

266

-7

202

250

285

276

277

139

-74

-104

Housing starts/completions

1588

1565

1225

1432

1516

1654

1701

1801

1622

1259

1091

Households, chge (3yr m.a.)

713

800

1088

1540

1673

1731

1402

1520

1421

1362

1386

Imbalance

875

765

137

-108

-157

-77

299

281

201

-103

-295

Spain

Above euro area countries

UK Housing starts

179

178

180

181

194

213

212

230

217

168

151

61

155

222

249

255

210

222

239

5055

135

220

118

23

-42

-68

-61

3

-10

-9

-4839

33

-69

Households, chge (3y m.a.) Imbalance US Housing starts

1647

1573

1601

1710

1854

1950

2073

1812

1342

900

500

Households, chge (3y m.a.)

1310

1175

1150

1119

1011

984

1105

1342

1215

1018

968

337

398

451

591

843

966

968

470

127

-118

-468

Imbalance

Source: Barclays Capital based on national sources

24 June 2009

3


Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market

Figure 6: The long-term perspective – French house prices 50

Figure 7: House prices by country 50

% y/y

% y/y

40

40

30

30

20 20

10 10

0

0

Spain France Germany

-10 Q1 09

-10

-20

37 42 47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 97 02 07

76

79

82

85

88

Ireland UK 91

94

97

00

03

06

09

Source: Barclays Capital using national sources (annual before 1997)

Source: Barclays Capital using national sources (please see Appendix)

Figure 8: Euro area unemployment rate moves up …

Figure 9: ... particularly in Spain and Ireland

20

20

Poland

Spain

Baltics 15

15

Greece France

10 US 5

Ireland

10

Euro area

Germany

UK 5

Sweden

Italy

Portugal

Japan 0

0 92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

Source: Barclays Capital, using Eurostat data from Thomson Datastream

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

Source: Barclays Capital, using Eurostat data from Thomson Datastream

Figure 6 shows what unprecedented times we are in. Using a series for French house prices back to 1937, we see that the Q1 09 decline (-6.6% on the INSEE measure) is paving the way for a record annual drop for French house prices this year. This shows the consequences of the collapse in confidence, for the French market, which unlike those of Spain and Ireland, has not seen the degree of excess housing construction – yet still prices have slumped (Figure 5 and Figure 7). Note that it is in countries that have seen particularly strong construction booms, such as Spain, Ireland and the Baltics, where the surge in unemployment rates is particularly high (Figure 8 and Figure 9). This chiefly reflects a combination of the shedding of construction labour plus the knock-on consequences on domestic demand from real estate retrenchment To evaluate the degree of excess construction investment, we can also look at the ratio of construction investment spending to nominal GDP (Figure 9 and Figure 10). We have long argued that there is a fundamental rebalancing going on in the construction sector, and we are monitoring these ratios closely. Currently the data suggest that the process of construction rebalancing might be only around halfway through for Ireland and Spain.

24 June 2009

4


Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market

Figure 10: Construction investment (% nominal GDP) forecast

Ireland Spain Italy

22 E12 US

France

17

forecast

22

UK 17

Germany

12

Japan

12

7 80

84

88

92

96

2000

04

08

7 80

84

88

92

96

2000

04

08

Source: National data sources, Thomson Datastream, Barclays Capital

Figure 11: Housing permits by country (% 6m/6m saar)

Figure 12: Euro area permits vs. investment 40

40

60

Euro area residential investment 2Q/2Q SAAR (LHS) Housing permits (BarCap aggregate) 2Q/2Q SAAR (RHS)

30

40

30

20

20

0

10

10

0

0

-20

-60 -80

BarCap aggregate

Germany (orders)

France

Spain

forecast

-10

-40

-20

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

-10 -20 -30

-30 94

92

20

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

08

Source:: Barclays Capital using national sources, Thomason Datastream

Source: Barclays Capital

In conclusion, we consider that it is unlikely to be until 2011 that there could be a meaningful recovery in euro area house prices. The full extent of the deterioration should be offset by the fact that Germany already had a housing boom in the early 1990s and since then German house prices have been virtually flat, which in turn has lowered the German PE ratio and hence the euro area ratio (also it means that Germany has not had the excess ratio of construction investment to GDP present in various other euro area countries). One important message from previous episodes of excess asset prices is that the de-rating process can often lead to an overshoot on the downside. Arguably this will not happen in the near future, because the ECB is maintaining such an accommodative monetary stance. Nonetheless, close attention to the historical behaviour of the PE ratio for housing in Germany and Japan since the early 1990s would suggest that identifying the trough in housing cycles can be a precarious business, particularly if the overall economic environment is weak on account of ongoing adjustment in the construction sector.

24 June 2009

5


Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market

Figure 13: ECB senior loan officer survey – questions on housing demand Factors affecting household loan demand – housing market prospects % diffusion balance

Credit standards in the past 3 months for housing loans % diffusion balance

60

60 = tighter

40

40 20

20

0

0

-20 -40

Euro Germany Euro ex Germany*

-20 -40

Euro

-60

Germany -80

-60 Jan 03

Jan 05

Jan 07

Euro ex Germany*

-100 Jan 03

Jan 09

Note: * Calculated by Barclays Capital from the ECB and Bundesbank data. Source: ECB, Bundesbank

Jan 05

Jan 07

Jan 09

Latest survey: April, 2009

Figure 14: Typical existing dwelling prices

350

euro k

400

forecast

euro k

Ireland

forecast

400

350

300

300

250

NL

250

UK

200

200

FR Germany

150

150 Italy

100

100

Spain

50

0

0 88

92

96

00

04

FN Portugal

50

84

Belg.

Austria

08

Greece 84

88

92

96

00

04

08

Source: Barclays Capital based on various national sources (see Appendix)

Figure 15: Key financing characteristics of euro area housing markets Austria

Belgium

Finland France

Prevailing type of interest rate

Variable

Fixed (>10yrs)

Variable

% of variable rate loans in total new loans (2007)

61

10

96

Index for adjusting variable rate

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Fixed Fixed (>10yrs) (5~10yrs)

Variable

Variable

Variable

28

67

47

15

3mth T bills & 12mth 12mth Euribor bond yields Euribor Euribor

15

NL

Port.

Spain

Fixed Variable Variable (5~10yrs) 18

99

91

Long-term ECB refi rate ECB refi rate 3mth Long-term 6mth 12mth market & 3mth & 3mth Euribor market rates Euribor Euribor rates Euribor Euribor

Typical maturity (yrs)

30

20

20~25

19

25~30

15~20

31~35

22

30

30~40

30

% of total mortgage market (Dec 08)

2.0

2.5

1.9

19.8

27.5

1.9

3.3

7.5

11.0

3.0

18.7

Source: European Central Bank, Barclays Capital

24 June 2009

6


Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market

Appendix: Key housing statistics and ratios The database we are using is based on many national sources. Where possible we use mix-adjusted prices for existing dwellings. Our database uses quarterly data, other than for Germany (annual), Austria and Italy (semi-annual) – these are interpolated. We have used information from the following sources: OeNB, Bank of Greece, Bank of Spain, Bulwien AG, Bundesbank, Confidencial Imobiliario, DNB, Eurostat, INSEE, The Irish Environment Department, Irish Permanent, NVM, Nomisma, OFHEO, Scenari Immobiliari, Statistics Belgium, Statistics Finland, UK Communities and Local Government ministry. The series for the euro area is created by using indices of the subcomponents and 2001 GDP weights. Data for per capita disposable income are from national statistics and the OECD; data for representative mortgages rates are from the European Mortgage Federation and other official national sources, including the ECB and national central banks. Data for actual house price levels are constructed from a variety of national sources and are therefore not strictly comparable.

16

Figure 17: Euro area 18

14

house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS

16

12 10

New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS

14

1.5 forecast

Figure 16: Euro area

8 6

12

4

10

1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5

2 8

0 -2

House price growth, % y/y Per capita PDI, % y/y Typical mortgage rate, %

-4 -6

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Figure 18: US

0.3

6

0.1

4

-0.1 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Figure 19: US

15

9.5

10

9.0

0.7

0.6

8.5

5

8.0

0

0.5

7.5

-5 House price growth, % y/y

7.0

-10

Per capita PDI, % y/y

6.5

-15

Typical mortgage rate, %

6.0 5.5

-20 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

0.4

0.3 house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS

0.2

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Note: * Interest costs calculated as the typical dwelling price times 0.8 times the typical mortgage rate, divided by per capita personal disposable income Sources for all charts: Various national agencies, ECB, Barclays Capital

24 June 2009

7


Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market

Appendix: Key housing statistics and ratios, continued Figure 21: UK

Figure 20: UK

1.5

35

Per capita PDI, % y/y Typical mortgage rate, %

25

18 forecast

House price growth, % y/y

16 14

0.7

15 10

0.5

8

-5

6

0.3 house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS 0.1

New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS

-0.1

4

-15

1.1 0.9

12

5

1.3

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Figure 23: Austria

Figure 22: Austria

1.5 house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS

16

25 20

Per capita personal disposable income, % y/y

14

15

Typical mortgage rate, %

12

10 5

New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS

forecast

House price growth, % y/y

30

18

0.7

10

0.5

8

0.3

6

0.1

4

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Figure 24: Belgium House price growth, % y/y Per capita disposable income, % y/y Typical mortgage rate, %

20

-0.1 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Figure 25: Belgium 1.5 18 house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS 16

15

14

10

New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS

forecast

-10

12

0

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

1.1 0.9

0.5

8

0.3

6

0.1

4

-5

1.3

0.7

10

5

1.1 0.9

0 -5

1.3

-0.1 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Note: * Interest costs calculated as the typical dwelling price times 0.8 times the typical mortgage rate, divided by per capita personal disposable income, with Q1Q2 07 estimated. Sources for all charts: Various national agencies, ECB, Barclays Capital

24 June 2009

8


Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market

Appendix: Key housing statistics and ratios, continued Figure 27: Finland

Figure 26: Finland House price growth, % y/y 50

1.5

Per capita personal disposable income, % y/y

18

Typical mortgage rate, %

16

house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS

40 14

30

1.3 forecast

60

New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS

1.1 0.9

20

12

10

10

0.5

0

8

0.3

6

0.1

-10

0.7

-20 4

-30 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Figure 29: France House price growth, % y/y

1.5 18

Per capita personal PDI, % y/y

15

Typical mortgage rate, %

14

10

house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS

16 New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS

1.3 forecast

Figure 28: France 20

-0.1 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

0.9

12

5

1.1

0.7

10

0.5

8

0.3

-5

6

0.1

-10

4

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Figure 30: Germany

Figure 31: Germany

16

House price growth, % y/y

14

Per capita personal disposable income, % y/y

18

12

Typical mortgage rate, %

16

10

14

8

-0.1 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

1.5

house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS

forecast

0

1.1 0.9

12

6

1.3

0.7

4

10

0.5

2

8

0.3

6

0.1

0 -2

4

-4 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

-0.1 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Note: * Interest costs calculated as the typical dwelling price times 0.8 times the typical mortgage rate, divided by per capita personal disposable income, with Q1Q2 07 estimated. Sources for all charts: Various national agencies, ECB, Barclays Capital

24 June 2009

9


Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market

Appendix: Key housing statistics and ratios, continued Figure 33: Greece

House price growth, % y/y Per capita personal disposable income, % y/y

25

Typical mortgage rate, %

20

1.5 18

house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS

16 14

15

New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS

12

10

5

forecast

Figure 32: Greece

97

99

01

03

05

07

1.1 0.9 0.7

10

0.5

8

0.3

6

0.1

4

0

1.3

-0.1 97

09

99

01

03

05

07

09

Figure 35: Ireland

Figure 34: Ireland

1.5 18

35

1.3

25

forecast

16 14 12

15

0.5

5 8

0.3

house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS

House price growth, % y/y Per capita PDI , % y/y Typical mortgage rate, %

6

0.1 New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS

4

-0.1 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Figure 37: Italy

Figure 36: Italy 35

18

30

House price growth, % y/y

25

Per capita PDI, % y/y

16

20

Typical mortgage rate, %

14

15

1.5

house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS

forecast

-15

0.9 0.7

10

-5

1.1

1.3 1.1 0.9

12

0.7

10 5

10

0.5

0

8

0.3

6

0.1

-5 -10

4

-15 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

-0.1 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Note: * Interest costs calculated as the typical dwelling price times 0.8 times the typical mortgage rate, divided by per capita personal disposable income, with Q1Q2 07 estimated. Sources for all charts: Various national agencies, ECB, Barclays Capital

24 June 2009

10


Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market

Appendix: Key housing statistics and ratios, continued Figure 39: The Netherlands

Figure 38: The Netherlands 25

18

20

1.5

house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS

1.3

16

15

14

10 12

1.1 New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS

0.9 0.7

5 10

0.5 forecast

0 8

-5

House price growth, % y/y Per capita PDI, % y/y Typical mortgage rate, %

-10

6

0.1 -0.1

4

-15

0.3

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Figure 41: Portugal

Figure 40: Portugal 24

House price growth, % y/y

20

Per capita PDI , % y/y

1.5 forecast

18 16

Typical mortgage rate, %

16

14

12

0.7

10

4

0.5

8

0

6

0.3 house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS

-4 90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

40 House price growth, % Y/Y

30

Per capita PDI, % y/y

25

0.1 -0.1

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Figure 43: Spain

Figure 42: Spain

35

4

Typical mortgage rate, %

20

house price/per capita PDI ratio, LHS

1.5

New borrower hypothetical interest costs*, RHS

1.3

18 16

forecast

88

1.1 0.9

12

8

1.3

14

1.1 0.9

12

0.7

15 10

0.5

5

8

0.3

0

6

0.1

10

-5

-0.1

4

-10 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Note: * Interest costs calculated as the typical dwelling price times 0.8 times the typical mortgage rate, divided by per capita personal disposable income, with Q1Q2 07 estimated. Sources for all charts: Various national agencies, ECB, Barclays Capital

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Barclays Capital | Euro Area Housing Market

EUROPEAN ECONOMICS RESEARCH ANALYSTS Barclays Capital 5 The North Colonnade London E14 4BB Julian Callow Chief European Economist +44 (0)20 7773 1369 julian.callow@barcap.com

James Ashley Senior European Economist +44 (0)20 7773 4669 james.ashley@barcap.com

Laurence Boone Chief French Economist +33 1-44 58 3236 laurence.boone@barcap.com

Leef H Dierks German Economist +49 69-7161 1781 leef.dierks@barcap.com

Fabio Fois European Economist +44 (0)20 313 41136 fabio.fois@barcap.com

Kerri Maddock European Economist +44 (0)20 3134 2300 kerri.maddock@barcap.com

Thorsten Polleit Chief German Economist +49 69-7161 1757 thorsten.polleit@barcap.com

Nick Verdi Global Economist +44 (0)20 7773 2173 nick.verdi@barcap.com

24 June 2009

14


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